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bookmark_borderChesapeake Bay and Sea Level Rise

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The Capital Gazette reports:
Fox Island has been washed away by sea level rise, forcing end of Chesapeake Bay education program

“After 40 years there offering magical teaching moments, environmental educators are saying goodbye to Fox Island as it sinks into the Chesapeake Bay.

Foundation educators say sea level rise and erosion are destroying the protective salt marshes surrounding the island between the Tangier and Pocomoke sounds, making the foundation’s educational center there unsafe to hold its three-day program.”

The Chesapeake Bay Foundation said:

This will be our last season on Fox Island. It’s hard to imagine CBF without it—Fox was our first residential education center. It had an outsized role in shaping the immersive, experiential learning that is the hallmark of our environmental education programs.

From its unique perch in the middle of the Chesapeake, we’ve provided lifechanging learning experiences for tens of thousands of the watershed’s teachers and students for more than 40 years. Many of them went on to pursue careers in science, public service, education, and environmental advocacy. It’s a testament not only to the magic of the island, but also to the exceptional cast of CBF educators and staffers who stewarded its shores for so long.

Letting it go is hard, for all of us.

But if you’ve visited the island recently, you’ve seen there isn’t much of Fox Island left. Due to sea level rise and erosion, there has been a dramatic loss of the protective salt marshes surrounding the center. The marshes and shallow-water grass beds were one of the main reasons Fox was such a powerful space to connect students and teachers to the Bay, and they helped reduce the impact of wind and waves on the center. Over the past 50 years, more than 70 percent of the island’s land area washed away.

As a result, we believe it will inevitably become unsafe to continue operating the Fox Island center for students in the future. The Fox Island Education Program will conclude its final season this fall.

The center’s closure illustrates the real and immediate threat climate change poses to the Chesapeake, especially to the island and coastal communities on the frontlines. Sea levels in the Bay are rising at some of the fastest rates in the nation. Wildlife habitat and human infrastructure are in the path, but so too are the unique voices and experiences that exist only in these places.

That’s why we aren’t backing away. We are committed to the island communities and to educating the next generation of environmental stewards about their way of life, which depends on the health of the Bay. While we are forced to close Fox, we plan to reconfigure other island facilities to continue connecting students and teachers to these critical issues firsthand.

Just as they did on Fox, students and teachers will have the opportunity to explore salt marshes, crab with local watermen, and experience the magic of island living. We know they will continue to build invaluable and lasting connections to the Bay.

bookmark_borderClimate Change Disasters Scare Off Insurance Industry

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Australian insurance companies are becoming leery of insuring high risk properties.

Climate change disasters could scare off the Australian home insurance industry

“The idea of parts of Australia being so exposed to natural disasters that they aren’t able to get home insurance seems scary but that’s exactly what insurers are warning of as climate change boosts the frequency of extreme weather events.”

The rise of red zones of risk

Dramatic hikes in insurance premiums combined with tighter lending in response to climate risk could trigger a wider property market correction, according to leading climate risk analyst Karl Mallon.

The warning comes as new analysis from his firm Climate Risk shows the number of “uninsurable” addresses in Australia is projected to double by the turn of the century to nearly 720,000 — or one in 20 — if nothing is done to address escalating risk from extreme weather and climate change.

Thousands more will see their insurance premiums double or even triple within decades, the data reveals.

bookmark_borderFinancial Risks From Climate Change

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A New York Times Report on Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

* Home values could fall significantly.

* Banks could stop lending to flood-prone communities.

* Towns could lose the tax money they need to build sea walls and other protections.

* Volatility related to climate change has become “increasingly relevant” as a consideration for the central bank.

The Full Federal Reserve Report
Volume 14 , Issue 1, 2019Community DevelopmentINNOVATION REVIEW

climeate-change-risk-federal-reserve

bookmark_borderClimate Change, Real Estate Mortgages, Flood Insurance and You

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From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-mortgages-idUSKBN1WE0D3

“The market’s failure to integrate climate science with investment analysis has created a mispricing phenomenon that is possibly larger than the mortgage credit bubble of the mid-2000s”

“a key culprit for the mispriced risk in the U.S. mortgage market is outdated flood maps drawn by the federal government.”

“Due to budget cuts, more than three-quarters of the maps have not been updated in at least five years”

“Outdated maps mean far fewer people are required to have flood insurance than are at risk,”

“The gaps are evident: About 70% of all damages to homes that were flooded during Harvey were not covered by insurance”

“the gaps mean the risk is not properly priced. The cost for an average policy in low-risk Green Bay, Wisconsin, for example, is three times that in Gulfport, Mississippi, a town devastated by Hurricane Katrina”

“The Federal Emergency Management Agency has said it aims to fix some of these problems with a major risk re-rating on Oct. 1, 2020.”

“Burt’s bet is that the move will result in significant cost increases. That in turn will lead to home price declines and mortgage losses, which would increase volatility in RMBS prices.”

“He expects a correction beginning in the next 6-18 months. ”

“Investors also have been taking on more risk. Some RMBS issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae since 2017, called credit risk transfer (CRT) deals, move the risk of default to the investors. In traditional agency RMBS, Fannie and Freddie cover those losses. “

bookmark_borderThe Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

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The latest Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC)Special Report high lights the urgency of prioritizing timely, ambitious and coordinated action to address unprecedented and enduring changes in the ocean and cryosphere.

The report states the sea level is rising much faster than previously forecast. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns one billion people will be affected as soon as 2050 because of rising sea levels, water shortages and food insecurity.

SROCC Press Release ENGLISH

SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport

bookmark_borderOcean Front Property

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Sidd said:

It has been fifteen years i think i said
“The ocean is very large and wants in your basement”

Nyhoo, here’s an article

https://news.sky.com/story/dont-buy-coastal-properties-un-scientists-issue-stark-warning-on-climate-11819030

No part of the planet will be spared a climate crisis as oceans warm and glaciers and ice sheets melt, according to a report by United Nations scientists.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns one billion people will be affected as soon as 2050 because of rising sea levels, water shortages and food insecurity.

The report, compiled by more than 100 leading climate scientists, calls for urgent, ambitious and coordinated action.

The findings are corroborated by scientists in the Arctic, who showed Sky News evidence of “unprecedented” ice melt. One cautioned against buying coastal property.

bookmark_borderFlood Insurance Risk

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From

https://urbanland.uli.org/sustainability/investors-and-bond-rating-analysts-are-working-to-quantify-risks-from-climate-change/

Bonds, insurance, climate risk: “a cataclysmic issue”

“Going forward, cities that lack the resources to invest in climate remediation may see their credit ratings decline as result”

“Those longer-term risks “are not priced into the market today,”

He cited the difficulty of evaluating the flood risk for a regional mall that sits atop a hill. Whereas the mall itself might not be at risk for flooding, “how do people get to you? Your inventory will be fine, but nobody will be there to buy it,” he said. “It’s more of an issue than just your physical building.”

“damage from rare extreme weather events did not have a significant effect on value because buildings almost always could be repaired. But with catastrophic storms and floods becoming more frequent in some areas, the value of the underlying land will be at risk as well. Insurers are not going to protect property owners against the risk that they will not be able to find a future buyer, he said.”

“By the third flood, prospective buyers know you have a waterlogged building,” Glendon said. “And you lose land value.”

“The rising threat to value from climate change will not be borne by insurance companies because they can re-price coverage, Glendon said. “The risk is for the people who hold the mortgages.”

bookmark_borderVolumetric or Cubical Expansion Coefficients of Water?

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I asked:
I’ve been trying to consider the
Volumetric or Cubical Expansion Coefficients of Liquids
and how it relates to water and climate change

It’s hard to wrap my head around… especially when you add melting sea ice to the equation

What do you think?

Will warmer water increase sea level rise even greater… the warmer the water the higher the rise? If the ocean temperature rises from from 62 to 68 will the increase temperature cause the sea level to rise due to expansion?

And, does it matter if ice starts as sea ice or ice on land?
How about the salinity? I’m guessing salinity will decrease as we add fresh water?

I found a tool box app. but I don’t think it takes any of these factors into account:
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/volumetric-temperature-expansion-d_315.html

Sidd replied:
ya, warming causes about a third to a half of current sea level rise but the other 2/3 is melting land based ice

the warming of the surface ocean (0-couple hundred meters) is not that important, it is the deep ocean that holds most of the water and it is warming much slower than the surface, but the expansion of the deep ocean causes most of the sea level rise

deep warming is very small compared to surface, a few thousandths to a hundredth of a degree, but there is a lot of deep ocean

90-95% of the warming due to CO2 goes into the oceans. There is better data now on where that heat is going in the ocean from the Argo floats.

theres a buncha papers on it, Cazenave is a good author to look for.

sidd

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment