Tag: desertification

bookmark_borderClimate Change Wildfires

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

About the 2023 wildfires in Hawaii, Governor Josh Green said, “For perspective, we’ve had six fire emergencies this August, we had six fire emergencies between 1953 and 2003. That’s how- how fast things are changing. I know that there is debate out there whether we should be talking about climate change or not. Well, let’s be real world, climate change is here we are in the midst of it with a hotter planet, and fiercer storms.”

Climate change is contributing to the increased intensity and frequency of wildfires through a combination of factors that create favorable conditions for wildfires to ignite, spread, and become more destructive. Here are some key ways in which climate change influences wildfires:

  1. Higher Temperatures:
    • Impact: Rising global temperatures increase the likelihood of extreme heat events.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Higher temperatures contribute to drier conditions, leading to increased evaporation and moisture loss from vegetation. Dry and hot conditions provide a more conducive environment for wildfires to ignite and spread.
  2. Drought Conditions:
    • Impact: Changes in precipitation patterns and prolonged droughts are linked to climate change.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Drought conditions result in dry vegetation, making it more susceptible to ignition. Reduced soil moisture levels also contribute to the flammability of ecosystems.
  3. Changing Rainfall Patterns:
    • Impact: Climate change alters regional rainfall patterns, leading to more intense rainfall in some areas and prolonged dry spells in others.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Areas experiencing reduced rainfall may face prolonged dry seasons, creating conditions favorable for wildfires. Intense rainfall in certain regions can lead to the growth of vegetation, which later dries out and becomes potential fuel for fires.
  4. Warming Winters:
    • Impact: Warmer winter temperatures can affect snowpack and contribute to earlier snowmelt.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Reduced snowpack and earlier snowmelt can result in drier soil and vegetation earlier in the year, extending the wildfire season and increasing the period of vulnerability to fire ignition.
  5. Extended Fire Season:
    • Impact: Changes in climate contribute to longer and more intense fire seasons.
    • Effect on Wildfires: A longer fire season means that conditions conducive to wildfires persist for a more extended period, increasing the likelihood of ignition and the potential for wildfires to become larger and more destructive.
  6. Insect Infestations:
    • Impact: Warmer temperatures allow for the proliferation of certain insects, such as bark beetles.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Insect-infested trees become more susceptible to disease and wildfire. Dead and dry trees contribute to the fuel load, increasing the intensity and spread of wildfires.
  7. Wind Patterns:
    • Impact: Changes in climate can influence wind patterns.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Changes in wind patterns can contribute to the rapid spread of wildfires. Strong winds can carry embers over long distances, leading to the ignition of new areas.
  8. Thawing Permafrost:
    • Impact: Warming temperatures contribute to the thawing of permafrost.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Thawing permafrost releases stored carbon, creating flammable conditions. It can also lead to changes in vegetation types, altering fuel availability for wildfires.

The combination of these factors creates a feedback loops, where more intense and frequent wildfires release large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to further climate change. This cycle reinforces the importance of addressing both the causes and consequences of climate change to mitigate the impact on wildfire risk. While the beautiful sunsets during forest fires create captivating visuals, it’s essential to recognize the environmental and health impacts associated with wildfires. Wildfires can cause significant damage to ecosystems, contribute to air pollution, and pose risks to human health. The mesmerizing sunsets are a visible reminder of the interconnectedness of atmospheric processes and the far-reaching effects of natural events like wildfires.

In addition to the carbon feedback loop (the carbon emissions of Canada’s fires outweighed the combined emissions from its oil and gas, transport and agriculture sectors), the fires also cause the melting of the permafrost and zombie fires to burn in the permafrost. The permafrost collapse is a self-sustaining feedback loop/tipping point. As the permafrost melts, the peatlands emit CO2 and methane. The increase in CO2 and methane results in more warming that results in more peatland emissions. A third feedback loop is created with lightning strikes. The study Forests at Risk Due to Lightning Fires found a sensitivity of extratropical intact forests to potential increases in lightning fires, which would have far-reaching consequences for terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity. The results show that, on a global scale, lightning is the primary ignition source of fires in temperate and boreal forests. Global warming causes more extreme weather events and conditions for lightning creating more forest fires that create more warming and more lightning strikes.

The study Wildfire as a major driver of recent permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands published in the Journal Nature Communications found wildfires have caused a quarter of permafrost thaw (2,000 square kilometres) in Western Canada’s boreal peatlands over the past 30 years. “Historically, permafrost in this area underwent a natural cycle of thawing and reforming, but given current climate conditions and projections for the future, this fire-induced thaw appears to be irreversible,” said Carolyn Gibson, who conducted the research.

On January 1, 2024, the article, Why Are Alaska’s Rivers Turning Orange?, was published in Scientific America. “Streams in Alaska are turning orange with iron and sulfuric acid. Scientists who have studied these rusting rivers agree that the ultimate cause is climate change. Kobuk Valley National Park has warmed by 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.32 degrees Fahrenheit) since 2006 and could get another 10.2 degrees C hotter by 2100, a greater increase than projected for any other national park. The heat may already have begun to thaw 40 percent of the park’s permafrost, the layer of earth just under the topsoil that normally remains frozen year-round. McPhee wanted to protect the Salmon River because humans had ‘not yet begun to change it.’ Now, less than 50 years later, we have done just that. The last great wilderness in America, which by law is supposed to be ‘untrammeled by man,’ is being trammeled from afar by our global emissions.”

NASA reported: Wildland fire experts have described Canada’s 2023 fire season as record-breaking and shocking. Over the course of a fire season that started early and ended late, blazes have burned an estimated 18.4 million hectares. Hundreds of fires exceeded 10,000 hectares (39 square miles), large enough to be considered “megafires.” These megafires were also unusually widespread this season, charring forests from British Columbia and Alberta in the west to Quebec and the Atlantic provinces in the east to the Northwest Territories and the Yukon in the north.

Though the rate of change in climate disasters’ intensity, duration, and likelihood vary according to the type of extreme weather, a “rule-of-thumb” can be derived from the Canada wildfires of 2023. The World Weather Attribution Organization found, “Climate change made the cumulative severity of Quebec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur.”

50% more intense
7 x more likely

Sidd said, “Do you remember back in the early 2000’s when we thought we wouldn’t live to see the extreme changes due to global warming?”

Daniel replied, “I think 2023 is the most significant year so far. We saw confirmation of tipping points being crossed for Mountain Glacier Loss, Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse, Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse, and potentially the Collapse of AMOC.”

Sidd continued, “We already knew that. It was Canada catching on fire that I could not believe. I never thought I’d live to see the day.”

Daniel asked, “Do you think the permafrost and peatlands will have zombie fires and cause the permafrost tipping point?”

Sidd responded, “Yes. They are gone, too. We already know from the permafrost peatland fires in Siberia.”

Daniel ponders, “Hmmmm… I guess that means my plan went up in smoke? My worst case scenario / last resort emergency plan was to escape to Canada.”

ALSO SEE:
How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change? Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)
The Long-term Breathing Experiment / Brouse (2023)
Health Impacts of Air Pollution / Brouse (2023)
Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Tree Extinction Due to Human Induced Environmental Stress / Mukherjee and Brouse (2005)
Soil Degradation and Desertification / Brouse (2024)
Create a Climate-Resilient Environment in and Around Your Home / Brouse (2024)

 

bookmark_borderHow is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

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By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

Climate change poses risks to real estate in the United States in various ways, and these risks can affect property values, insurance costs, and overall property resilience. Here are some ways in which all US real estate is at risk from climate change:

  1. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Properties:
    • Coastal properties are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. As sea levels continue to rise due to global warming, properties near coastlines may experience increased flooding and damage from more frequent and severe storms. Storm surges in Florida are an example.
  2. Extreme Weather Events:
    • Climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts. Properties in regions prone to these events are at risk of damage, destruction, and increased insurance costs.
  3. Temperature Extremes:
    • Rising temperatures can lead to more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, affecting property infrastructure, energy demand, and potentially decreasing property values in areas with extreme heat.
  4. Changes in Precipitation Patterns:
    • Changes in precipitation patterns, including increased violent rainfall or prolonged droughts, can impact properties by causing flooding, landslides, or water scarcity. These changes may affect property values and increase maintenance costs.
  5. Wildfires:
    • Increased temperatures and changing precipitation patterns contribute to the risk of wildfires. Properties in wildfire-prone areas face threats to both their physical structures and the surrounding environment.
  6. Homeowners and Flood Insurance Costs:
    • Flood insurance will become expensive and difficult to obtain. Climate-related risks can lead to higher insurance premiums and deductibles, particularly in high-risk areas. As the frequency and severity of climate-related events increase, insurance companies may reassess risk models and adjust pricing accordingly.
  7. Infrastructure Vulnerability:
    • Climate change can impact infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and utilities. Properties relying on vulnerable infrastructure may face challenges related to accessibility, reliability, and potential increases in repair and maintenance costs.
  8. Health Risks:
    • Humans will experience greater loss and damage to life and quality of life from air pollution, decreasing supply of potable water, extreme weather events, and disease. The greatest short term climate change risk to human health is deadly humid heat (wet-bulb temperature). Climate change can affect human health, and properties in areas prone to heatwaves, air pollution, or vector-borne diseases may face increased health risks. This could influence property values and community desirability.Almost all survivors of climate-related disasters suffer from mental distress. Of those who have not experienced climate disasters, more than two-thirds of U.S. adults (68%) have reported climate change anxiety.
  9. Regulatory Changes:
    • Governments may implement stricter building codes, zoning regulations, and disclosure requirements related to climate-related risks. Non-compliance could affect property values and lead to increased costs for property owners. Loss and damage litigation against oil companies and governments will change world economics.
  10. Shifts in Property Demand:

It’s important to note that the degree of risk varies by region and property type. Some areas may experience more immediate and severe impacts, while others may be more resilient. Assessing and mitigating these risks require a comprehensive understanding of local climate vulnerabilities and the implementation of strategies to enhance property resilience. Policymakers, real estate professionals, and property owners are increasingly recognizing the importance of addressing climate risks to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of real estate assets. Thus, our recommendation to evacuate Florida now (i.e. Managed Retreat).

Create a Climate-Resilient Environment in and Around Your Home Brouse (2024)

Managed Retreat: Relocating Due to Climate Change Extreme Weather Events Brouse (2023)

Stormwater Runoff Management for Your House Brouse (2024)

Tree Extinction Due to Human Induced Environmental Stress Mukherjee and Brouse (2005-present)

Soil Degradation and Desertification Brouse (2024)

Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee and Brouse (2022-2023)

Violent Rain and the Substrate Brouse and Laden (2024)

The Long-term Breathing Experiment Brouse (2023)

Health Impacts of Air Pollution Brouse (2023)

Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania and the Substrate Daniel Brouse (2023)

Real Estate Underwater: A Florida Climate Change Case Study Daniel Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

Real Estate and Climate Change: Stranded on an Island Daniel Brouse (2023)

Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History Brouse (2024)

All About Flood Insurance Brouse and Mukherjee (1995-present)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderChaos Theory: Soil, Atmosphere and Ocean Interaction With Thermal Energy and Carbon Storage

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by Daniel Brouse

Chaos theory emphasizes the complexity and nonlinearity of dynamic systems, and this complexity is inherent in the interactions between soil, atmosphere, and oceans in the Earth’s climate system. Here’s how these components interact with thermal energy and carbon storage:

Soil-Atmosphere Interaction:

  1. Thermal Energy Exchange:
    • Soil plays a crucial role in the exchange of thermal energy with the atmosphere. The temperature of the soil surface affects the transfer of heat to the atmosphere through processes such as conduction and convection. The thermal properties of soil, including its composition and moisture content, influence this energy exchange.
  2. Carbon Storage and Cycling:
    • Soil acts as a reservoir for carbon in the form of organic matter. This carbon storage is dynamic and involves complex interactions between plants, microorganisms, and the soil matrix. Soil organic carbon contributes to the global carbon cycle, affecting atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
  3. Feedback Mechanisms:
    • Nonlinear feedback mechanisms between soil and atmosphere can influence climate dynamics. For example, changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may impact soil moisture, affecting vegetation growth and altering the surface energy balance.

Soil-Ocean Interaction:

  1. Carbon Storage and Sequestration:
    • Oceans play a crucial role in global carbon storage. Dissolved carbon dioxide is absorbed by the ocean, forming carbonic acid. Additionally, organic matter from marine life contributes to carbon storage in ocean sediments. The exchange of carbon between soil and oceans is interconnected and can influence atmospheric CO2 levels.
  2. Thermal Inertia:
    • Oceans have a high thermal inertia, meaning they can absorb and store large amounts of heat. This property moderates temperature extremes, influencing atmospheric temperature patterns. Changes in ocean temperatures can, in turn, impact regional and global climate dynamics.
  3. Ocean Circulation and Climate:
    • Ocean circulation patterns, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), play a role in redistributing heat around the globe. Changes in ocean circulation can have cascading effects on atmospheric circulation patterns, influencing climate on a large scale.

Atmosphere-Soil-Ocean Coupling:

  1. Teleconnections:
    • Chaos theory recognizes the concept of teleconnections, where seemingly unrelated events in one part of the Earth system influence conditions in another. For instance, changes in sea surface temperatures (linked to ocean dynamics) can affect atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to variations in precipitation and temperature on land.
  2. Climate Variability:
    • The complex interactions between soil, atmosphere, and oceans contribute to climate variability. Chaos theory helps to understand the sensitivity of the climate system to initial conditions and how small perturbations in one component can lead to significant and sometimes unpredictable outcomes.

In summary, chaos theory underscores the intricate, nonlinear, and interconnected nature of the relationships between soil, atmosphere, and oceans in the context of thermal energy and carbon storage. These interactions contribute to the Earth’s climate system’s complexity, and understanding these dynamics is crucial for accurately modeling and predicting climate changes. Ongoing research and improved modeling techniques aim to enhance our understanding of these complex interactions and their implications for climate variability and change.

Chaos Theory and Climate Change Brouse (2024)

Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change and How Soil Degradation Can Lead to Desertification

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Why is soil integral to climate change? How does soil degradation lead to desertification?

Soil plays a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaptation, and soil degradation can contribute to the process of desertification. Here’s why soil is integral to climate change and how soil degradation can lead to desertification:

Importance of Soil in Climate Change:

  1. Carbon Sequestration:
    • Healthy soils act as a significant carbon sink, storing large amounts of carbon in the form of organic matter. This process, known as carbon sequestration, helps mitigate climate change by reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere.
  2. Water Regulation:
    • Soil influences water availability and regulates the water cycle. Healthy soils absorb and store water, reducing the risk of floods and contributing to moisture availability during dry periods. This capacity for water regulation is crucial for climate resilience.
  3. Biodiversity Support:
    • Healthy soils provide habitat and support for a diverse range of organisms, including bacteria, fungi, insects, and plant roots. Biodiversity in the soil contributes to ecosystem stability, resilience, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions.
  4. Nutrient Cycling:
    • Soil is essential for nutrient cycling, as it hosts microbial communities that break down organic matter and make nutrients available to plants. This nutrient cycling supports plant growth and contributes to overall ecosystem health.

Soil Degradation and Desertification:

  1. Erosion:
    • Soil degradation, often caused by factors like deforestation, overgrazing, and unsustainable agricultural practices, can lead to increased soil erosion. Erosion removes the topsoil layer, which is rich in organic matter and nutrients, reducing the soil’s fertility and water retention capacity.
  2. Loss of Soil Structure:
    • Poor land management practices, such as excessive plowing, deforestation, and improper irrigation, can lead to the loss of soil structure. This makes the soil more susceptible to erosion, reduces water infiltration, and hinders the growth of vegetation.
  3. Decreased Carbon Sequestration:
    • Soil degradation results in the loss of organic matter, reducing the soil’s ability to sequester carbon. This can contribute to increased atmospheric CO2 levels, exacerbating the greenhouse effect and climate change.
  4. Loss of Biodiversity:
    • Degraded soils often experience a decline in microbial and plant diversity. This loss of biodiversity weakens the soil’s resilience to environmental stresses and reduces its capacity to support healthy ecosystems.
  5. Increased Vulnerability to Climate Change:
    • Degraded soils are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events, droughts, and temperature variations. This vulnerability can create a feedback loop, where climate change further exacerbates soil degradation.
  6. Desertification:
    • Desertification is the process by which fertile land becomes increasingly arid and unproductive, eventually turning into desert-like conditions. Soil degradation, through erosion, loss of organic matter, and reduced water retention, is a key driver of desertification.
  7. Impact on Livelihoods:
    • Desertification poses a threat to agricultural productivity, water resources, and local livelihoods. It can lead to the displacement of communities and exacerbate social and economic challenges, contributing to a cycle of poverty and environmental degradation.

Addressing soil degradation is crucial for sustainable land management, climate change mitigation, and the prevention of desertification. Implementing conservation practices, agroforestry, reforestation, and sustainable agriculture techniques can help restore and protect soils, contributing to climate resilience and biodiversity conservation.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate-Resilient Environment Around Your Home

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by Daniel Brouse

Soil is integral to our climate.

What are the best methods to mitigate against climate change by providing wind breaks, shade, moisture retention, and climate control, around my home, as well as prevent soil degradation and desertification?

Creating a sustainable and climate-resilient environment around your home involves a combination of practices that address wind breaks, shade, moisture retention, climate control, and prevention of soil degradation. Here are some effective methods:

  1. Planting Trees and Vegetation:
    • Wind Breaks and Shade: Planting windbreaks, such as rows of trees or shrubs, can protect your home from strong winds and provide shade. Deciduous trees strategically placed on the south and west sides of your home can offer shade during hot seasons while allowing sunlight through during colder seasons.
    • Moisture Retention: Trees and vegetation help retain moisture in the soil by reducing evaporation. Mulching around plants and trees further aids in moisture retention.
    • Climate Control: Trees act as natural air conditioners, cooling the surrounding environment through a process called transpiration. This can contribute to a more comfortable microclimate around your home.
  2. Rainwater Harvesting:
    • Install rain barrels or cisterns to collect rainwater. This harvested water can be used for watering plants, reducing the need for additional irrigation and helping with moisture retention in the soil.
  3. Appropriate Plant Selection:
    • Choose native or drought-resistant plants that are well-suited to your local climate. These plants typically require less water, contribute to soil stability, and are more resilient in the face of climate variability.
  4. Contour Planting and Terracing:
    • Contour planting involves planting along the contour lines of the land to slow down water runoff, promoting infiltration and reducing soil erosion. Terracing is another method to control water runoff on sloped terrain.
  5. Ground Cover and Cover Crops:
    • Planting ground cover or cover crops helps prevent soil erosion, improves moisture retention, and contributes to overall soil health. These plants protect the soil surface from the impact of raindrops and enhance soil structure.
  6. Permeable Surfaces:
    • Use permeable surfaces, such as permeable pavers or gravel, in areas around your home. This allows rainwater to infiltrate into the soil rather than running off, contributing to soil moisture and preventing erosion.
  7. Composting:
    • Implement composting practices to improve soil structure and fertility. Healthy soils are more resistant to erosion, and they can retain moisture better, promoting plant growth.
  8. Integrated Pest Management (IPM):
    • Practice IPM techniques to manage pests without resorting to excessive use of pesticides. Healthy ecosystems are more resilient to climate stresses, and minimizing chemical inputs helps maintain biodiversity and soil health.
  9. Microclimate Planning:
    • Plan your landscaping to create microclimates around your home. For example, placing hard surfaces like rocks or pavement near the home can absorb and release heat, contributing to temperature regulation.
  10. Educate and Involve the Community:
  • Collaborate with neighbors and community members to implement sustainable practices collectively. Building awareness and working together can have a more significant impact on preventing soil degradation and desertification.

By integrating these practices, you can contribute to a more sustainable and climate-resilient environment around your home while mitigating the impacts of climate change and promoting soil health.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderDroughts and Rising Sea Levels

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“There has been a 500% increase in the US drought area,” said Al Roker of the Today show while reporting on 2020 being tied for the hottest year.

The Washington Post reports, “Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021.” [1}

“The impact of desertification is intensifying due to climate change, which is reducing the availability of freshwater, fertile soil, and forest and vegetation. As the degraded land loses value, investments in agriculture and rural development decline even more.” — Ban Ki-moonUnited Nations Secretary-General [2}

This doesn’t have to do with drought episodes. It has to do with areas prone to having droughts. As the area of land that is prone to flooding is increasing exponentially, so too is the land prone to severe, long term drought. We make it even worse by pumping ground water out for agriculture. This depletes the aquifers. The result is sinking land and rising sea levels. The depleted fresh water is then intruded by salt water. Salt water intrusion has a severe impact on the world food supply.

So, you have rising seas above and below the land. Compounding the problem — water expands when it gets warmer. About 1/3 of the rise in sea level is due to thermal expansion of water. [Volumetric Thermal Expansion] The warmer sea water also melts sea ice. The ocean doesn’t reflect the energy the way ice does. In fact just he opposite, the ocean absorbs the heat… making the water warmer… melting more sea ice…. and warming the planet. Which melts the land ice, which raises the sea level. A vicious feedback cycle of fresh water depletion and sea level rise has been created.

Climate change is making weather events more extreme and more frequent. More severe droughts, more severe floods, etc. Energy is being added to the system. “Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in many parts of the United States and the world in the decades ahead. A changing climate can also alter atmospheric rivers (narrow streams of moisture transported in the atmosphere), which can especially disrupt precipitation patterns in the Western United States. Droughts can persist through a “positive feedback,” where very dry soils and diminished plant cover can further suppress rainfall in an already dry area.” [3]

“Risks from desertification are projected to increase due to climate change (high confidence). The combination of pressures coming from climate variability, anthropogenic climate change and desertification will contribute to poverty, food insecurity, and increased disease burden (high confidence).” [4]

1. Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021. (The Washington Post)
2. DESERTIFICaTION (United Nations)
3. Drought and Climate Change (Center for Energy and Climate Solutions)
4. SPECIAL REPORT: Climate Change and Land Desertification (International Panel on Climate Change)