bookmark_borderChina Drought: Shortage of Hydropower

Al Jazeera reports, Chinese factories close as drought hits hydropower. “Factories in China’s southwest have shut down after reservoirs used to generate hydropower ran low in a worsening drought.” Unfortunately, the factory shutdowns include most of the global solar panel production, as well as Tesla electric vehicles.

Leave power for the people,” said an order from the provincial government.

Barron’s reports, “One of the suppliers with capacity in the region is the largest EV battery maker in the world — Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (300750.China), better known as CATL. That company has idled some production in Sichuan, according to reports. GM and SAIC have a joint venture that produces a lot of small electric vehicles in China.”

“A reduction in the supply of parts would affect nearly all auto makers. The industry has dealt with a lot in recent years, including Covid-19 and a semiconductor shortage. Drought is just another issue in a long line of recent problems, and it isn’t the first act of God to hit the sector. Back in March 2021, a fire at a chip plant in Japan worsened the semiconductor shortage.”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderWorldwide Droughts

August 2022

There are droughts in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

* UN lists 23 countries that are in severe drought: Afghanistan, Angola, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Chile, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Pakistan, the United States and Zambia.

* U.S. officials declared the first-ever water shortage from the Colorado river that serves 40 million people in the West. Water levels at the largest reservoir on the Colorado River — Lake Mead — have fallen to record lows. Along its perimeter, a white “bathtub ring” of minerals outlines where the high water line once stood, underscoring the acute water challenges for a region facing a growing population and a drought that is being worsened by hotter, drier weather brought on by climate change.

* The silvery blue waters of the Great Salt Lake sprawl across the Utah desert, having covered an area nearly the size of Delaware for much of history. For years, though, the largest natural lake west of the Mississippi River has been shrinking. And a drought gripping the American West could make this year the worst yet.

* Baby salmon are dying by the thousands in one California river, and an entire run of endangered salmon could be wiped out in another. Fishermen who make their living off adult salmon, once they enter the Pacific Ocean, are sounding the alarm as blistering heat waves and extended drought in the U.S.

* Extreme drought in northern Mexico has left millions of residents without water.

* From the Atacama Desert to Patagonia, a 13-year megadrought is straining Chile’s freshwater resources to breaking point.

* As Europe’s rivers run dry in a devastating drought that scientists say could prove the worst in 500 years, their receding waters are revealing long-hidden artefacts, from Roman camps to ghost villages and second world war shipwrecks. The so-called “hunger stone” at Děčín is one of dozens in central European rivers engraved to mark their levels during historic droughts – and warn future generations of the famine and hardship likely to follow each time they became visible.

* More and more droughts: How both India and the world is getting affected and what it will lead to. The head of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Ibrahim Thiaw, has said that “Humanity is at a crossroads” when it comes to managing drought, and accelerating means of slowing it down must happen “urgently, using every tool we can.

* Pakistan is one of the top 23 countries suffering from a severe drought emergency, a statement issued by the Ministry of Climate Change said. Desertification caused by human and environmental factors has left Pakistan scarred, leading to environmental degradation, loss of soil fertility, loss of biodiversity, and reduction in land productivity, exacerbating the vulnerability of the country’s fragile local communities.

* China issues nationwide drought alert amid extreme heat. A record-breaking 262 weather stations tied or broke their highest temperature on record during the long-running heat wave, which has increased in intensity during the past week. At least 244 cities across China could experience temperatures above 104°F (40°C) on Friday and more than 400 additional cities could see temperatures above 98°F (37°C). The Poyang Lake in central China’s Jiangxi province has shrunk to a quarter of its normal size for this time of year and some 66 rivers in 34 counties in southwestern China have dried up,

* UN food agency scales up assistance for Horn of Africa as millions suffer from drought. Levels of hunger soar in Horn of Africa after back-to-back droughts, threat of famine looms, says World Food Program. Since the start of the year, 9 million more people have slipped into severe food insecurity across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, leaving 22 million people struggling to find enough food to eat, WFP’s regional office in Nairobi said in a statement. “People here have been waiting years for rain – but they cannot wait any longer for life-saving food assistance. The world needs to act now to protect the most vulnerable communities from the threat of widespread famine in the Horn of Africa,” Beasley said.

* In Texas, the heat and lack of rain have uncovered dinosaur tracks from 113 million years ago. “Due to the excessive drought conditions this past summer, the river dried up completely in most locations, allowing for more tracks to be uncovered here in the park,” the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department said in a statement.

* A drought and heat wave in southwestern China have revealed 600-year-old Buddhist statues on a rocky outcrop in the Yangtze River.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderColorado River: Catastrophic Collapse

Water wars… coming to a state near you:
“A 23-year drought has been drying up the Colorado River and the effects of climate change, both in terms of extreme heat and low precipitation, are making that more severe.”
“For the second year in a row, the federal government said Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will have to reduce their water consumption.”

90% of the U.S. lettuce is produced in Arizona using water from the Colorado River. In 2021, Arizona had to drastically reduce water consumption. In 2022, Arizona is reducing water consumption from the Colorado by another 21%.

CNBC reports, Feds call for water cutbacks ‘to avoid a catastrophic collapse’ of Colorado River.
“For the second year in a row, the federal government said Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will have to reduce their water consumption.
A 23-year drought has been drying up the Colorado River and the effects of climate change, both in terms of extreme heat and low precipitation, are making that more severe.”

“Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency. In order to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado River System and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the Basin must be reduced,” said Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary for water and science at the Department of Interio.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderEurope Drought: And Yes, All Fish Will Die

Water wars… coming to a town near you:
* Europe hydrogeneration is down 20% in France, down 30% in Italy, and down 50% in Spain. And, did you know solar panels are less efficient in high temperatures? There is more resistance in all power lines, too.
* Germany the Rhine water levels fall to new low making it non-navigable for ships
* France is relocating fish into tanks because the water is too warm. Thousands of other fish die due to lack of O2 — “Without rain, the river “will continue to empty. And yes, all fish will die”

Politico reports, Watts going down? Europe’s scorching summer parches hydropower.
“Record-breaking temperatures are starving hydropower plants and raising questions about how to adapt them for the future.”

The Guardian reports, Europe’s rivers run dry as scientists warn drought could be worst in 500 years.
“Crops, power plants, barge traffic, industry and fish populations devastated by parched waterways”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderDroughts and Rising Sea Levels

“There has been a 500% increase in the US drought area,” said Al Roker of the Today show while reporting on 2020 being tied for the hottest year.

The Washington Post reports, “Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021.” [1}

“The impact of desertification is intensifying due to climate change, which is reducing the availability of freshwater, fertile soil, and forest and vegetation. As the degraded land loses value, investments in agriculture and rural development decline even more.” — Ban Ki-moonUnited Nations Secretary-General [2}

This doesn’t have to do with drought episodes. It has to do with areas prone to having droughts. As the area of land that is prone to flooding is increasing exponentially, so too is the land prone to severe, long term drought. We make it even worse by pumping ground water out for agriculture. This depletes the aquifers. The result is sinking land and rising sea levels. The depleted fresh water is then intruded by salt water. Salt water intrusion has a severe impact on the world food supply.

So, you have rising seas above and below the land. Compounding the problem — water expands when it gets warmer. About 1/3 of the rise in sea level is due to thermal expansion of water. [Volumetric Thermal Expansion] The warmer sea water also melts sea ice. The ocean doesn’t reflect the energy the way ice does. In fact just he opposite, the ocean absorbs the heat… making the water warmer… melting more sea ice…. and warming the planet. Which melts the land ice, which raises the sea level. A vicious feedback cycle of fresh water depletion and sea level rise has been created.

Climate change is making weather events more extreme and more frequent. More severe droughts, more severe floods, etc. Energy is being added to the system. “Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in many parts of the United States and the world in the decades ahead. A changing climate can also alter atmospheric rivers (narrow streams of moisture transported in the atmosphere), which can especially disrupt precipitation patterns in the Western United States. Droughts can persist through a “positive feedback,” where very dry soils and diminished plant cover can further suppress rainfall in an already dry area.” [3]

“Risks from desertification are projected to increase due to climate change (high confidence). The combination of pressures coming from climate variability, anthropogenic climate change and desertification will contribute to poverty, food insecurity, and increased disease burden (high confidence).” [4]

1. Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021. (The Washington Post)
2. DESERTIFICaTION (United Nations)
3. Drought and Climate Change (Center for Energy and Climate Solutions)
4. SPECIAL REPORT: Climate Change and Land Desertification (International Panel on Climate Change)

bookmark_borderThe Horror World will Face from Climate Change

, explains:

“I said it was the new normal a few years ago,’’ Brown said in an exclusive interview with POLITICO. “This is serious …. but this is only the beginning. This is only a taste of the horror and the terror that will occur in decades.’’

“And it will occur in various spots: in America, in Africa, in Canada,’’ said Brown, who will travel to Washington this week to speak on climate change issues. “It’s unpredictable, other than the fact that it will get worse in present trajectory. Washington, under Trump, is doing very little — and even the Congress has been unable to mobilize under Washington.’’

“It’s a real threat, but it has to be managed. This is the world we live in. And it will get more dangerous.”

bookmark_borderCalifornia Increasing Weather Volatility

One of the most notable changes in weather doing to global warming is volatility. “We are not saying that the Earth’s temperature is just going to rise. In general, as energy is added to a system, the fluctuations in the system increase. So, we expect more storms, more droughts, more wildfires, more floods, more fluctuations of all kinds. What we are saying is that weather conditions will become more volatile due to the impact of humans,” said Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse of The Membrane Domain (2004). The increase in extreme weather events wreak havoc on humans’ ability to adapt to the changing environment. For instance, severe droughts followed by severe rains create devastating floods.

A new study (23 April 2018) published in the Journal Nature, Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California, forecasts extreme weather events in California:

Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.

 

bookmark_borderClimate Disasters Made for Costliest Year

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports:
2017 will be remembered as a year of extremes for the U.S. as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, fires and freezes claimed hundreds of lives and visited economic hardship upon the nation. Recovery from the ravages of three major Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and an extreme and ongoing wildfire season in the West is expected to continue well into the new year

Billion-dollar disasters in 2017

Last year, the U.S. experienced 16 weather and climate disasters each with losses exceeding $1 billion, totaling approximately $306 billion — a new U.S. record.

Far more tragic was the human toll. At least 362 people died and many more were injured during the course of the disasters that included:

1 freeze;
1 drought (affected multiple areas);
1 wildfire (affected multiple areas);
2 floods;
3 major hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria); and
8 severe storms.

The biggest newsmakers include the western U.S. wildfires that caused damages tallying $18 billion — triple the previous U.S. record. Losses from Hurricane Harvey exceeded $125 billion, which ranked second only to Hurricane Katrina, the costliest storm in the 38-year period of record. Hurricanes Maria and Irma had total damages of $90 billion and $50 billion, respectively. Hurricane Maria now ranks as third costliest weather and climate disaster on record for the nation, with Irma coming in close behind as fifth costliest.

Since 1980, the U.S. has sustained 219 weather and climate disasters that have exceeded $1.5 trillion in overall damages to date.

Billion Dollar Disasters
Billion Dollar Disasters

16 weather and climate disasters each with losses exceeding $1 billion

During 2017, the U.S. experienced a historic year of weather and climate disasters. In total, the U.S. was impacted by 16 separate billion-dollar disaster events tying 2011 for the record number of billion-dollar disasters for an entire calendar year. In fact, 2017 arguably has more events than 2011 given that our analysis traditionally counts all U.S. billion-dollar wildfires, as regional-scale, seasonal events, not as multiple isolated events.

More notable than the high frequency of these events is the cumulative cost, which exceeds $300 billion in 2017 — a new U.S. annual record. The cumulative damage of these 16 U.S. events during 2017 is $306.2 billion, which shatters the previous U.S. annual record cost of $214.8 billion (CPI-adjusted), established in 2005 due to the impacts of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

bookmark_borderClimate Change, Extreme Weather and Toxic Crops

by Daniel Brouse

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released a report that examines how climate change is increasing the toxicity of crops.

Crop Toxicity
Extreme weather events, such as “drought and high temperatures, can trigger the accumulation in crops of chemical compounds that are toxic to animals and humans.”

The report goes on to say: Wheat, barley, maize (corn) and millet are among the crops most susceptible to nitrate accumulation, which is caused by prolonged drought. Acute nitrate poisoning in animals can lead to miscarriage, asphyxiation and death, ruining the lives of smallholder farmers and herders.

Heavy rains that break prolonged drought can also result in the dangerous accumulation of another toxic compound called hydrogen cyanide or prussic acid in crops like flax, maize, sorghum, arrow grass, cherries and apples.

Aflatoxins, which are fungal toxins that can cause cancer and stunt foetal growth, are another emerging problem in crops. The risk of aflatoxin contamination, especially in maize, is expected to increase in higher latitudes due to rising temperatures. A recent study predicts that this toxin will become a food safety issue for Europe, especially in the most likely scenario of a 2oC rise in global temperatures.

The report highlights two critical issues associated with climate change – loss and damage. Given the delays in the last 25 years in mitigating and adapting to climate change, scientific evidence suggests that losses and damages from climate change are inevitable, with profound consequences for ecosystems, people, assets and economies. This is already happening. The heat waves of 2003 are a good example of what happens when efforts to mitigate and adapt to changes in the climate fail: 30,000 people died, glaciers decreased, permafrost thawed and the European Union’s agricultural sector lost $14.7 billion.

bookmark_borderGlobal Drought

by Daniel Brouse

EARTH — The world is experiencing one of the worst years of drought ever recorded. The conditions are so bad in India that the state of Bihar has banned daytime cooking. “We call this the fire season in Bihar,” a state-disaster management official said. “Strong, westerly winds stoke fires which spread easily and cause great damage.” So far, the fires have killed 79 people. Over 300 people have died of heat-related illness in the past month. There are armed guards stationed at India’s dams. Al Jazeera reports, “Trains loaded with water are being moved across the country, but farmers’ wells are drying up and drinking water is being rationed. Arriving almost daily, each train brings millions of litres of water to this drought-stricken area. But even this is not enough.”

India is not alone. Africa is also facing severe droughts. SABC News of South Africa reports, “Residents of three major Free State towns – Kroonstad, Steynsrus Viljoenskroon and Bloemfontein – are being slapped with even tighter water restrictions as the area’s main water source is fast running dry. Residents are complaining that the situation is so bad that they cannot use lavatories and that business has been affected. Taps are expected to run empty within a month as the dam is nearing empty level.”

Operation USA released a statement saying, “East Africa is currently experiencing the worst drought to hit the region in 60 years. The UN has officially declared famine in parts of southern Somalia—regions of Lower Shabelle and southern Bakool. It is predicted that the entire south of Somalia will face famine within the next two months. Operation USA is working to assess unmet needs on the ground, with its initial response focusing on water resource needs in Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camps. The Dadaab camps–the largest in the world–are reported to receive as many as 1,300 refugees a day, the majority fleeing war-torn Somalia. These camps house almost 400,000 displaced people in three camps originally designated for 90,000.

Other countries in the Horn of Africa are being severely affected by drought. Successive seasons of failed rains—combined with increasing food prices, conflict and limited humanitarian access—have resulted in food and water shortages, acute malnutrition and mass displacement throughout the region. The lack of rain has also contributed to massive livestock deaths undermining the livelihoods of those who depend on them for economic and food security. Estimates are that there are at least 1.5 million displaced people—and 10 million people in need of immediate food assistance as a result of this crisis.”

China has been impacted by drought, as well. CCTV News states, “Southern China is facing the worst drought in a century. By March 16th, nearly 6.5 million hectares of farmland had been affected, and more than 20 million people faced drinking water shortages.”

Closer to home, the U.S. is facing the longterm consequences of drought. US News and World Report states, ‘”The Gold Rush State has sunk more than 45 feet since 1935 – something the U.S. government calls the “largest human alteration of the earth’s surface.” But earthquakes aren’t the cause. It’s happening because of excessive groundwater mining brought on by drought, and geologists say all the rain in the world won’t reverse cave-ins of dirt and rock in underground aquifers. “‘

“We’ve not seen anything like this in recent history,” says University of California professor Jay Lund. “The last time we saw this was in the ’20s and ’30s when we had the Dust Bowl.”

The government agency NIDIS (drought.gov) reports, “The global monthly high temperature record has been broken for the eleventh consecutive month. According to NOAA, March 2016 was 2.20 degree Celsius warmer than the average March temperature and was the highest departure of any month in the record which begins in January 1880. In Europe, drought conditions remain intense around the Mediterranean Sea while interior and northern Europe is wetter than last month. In Asia, drought expanded in and around the central and western Indian sub-continent, as well as intensifying in the West. In India, sugar production is expected to fall 5-7% while in Thailand, rice production is expected to rise 11% in the coming year with the easing of the drought there. In Africa, short-term drought remains strong in the North and the South and has intensified around the equator. In Somalia, 40% of the population of the North is suffering from drought and need emergency aid. In South Africa, an anticipated reduction in the 2016 fruit crop may have an impact on global shipping companies. In North America, drought remains entrenched in the higher latitudes, and is expanding in Mexico. Western US snowpack is near-average, the best conditions since 2011. In South America, drought remains in the northern part of the continent, despite some slight easing, while the South saw much-needed rain again this month. Venezuela, the capital of Caracas could soon begin to experience rolling blackouts as the Guri Dam, which supplies much of its’ power, is approaching critically low water levels. In Oceania, drought eased slightly in Southern Australia while remaining firmly entrenched in the islands to the north. Australian is anticipating a rebound in wheat, cotton, and milk production with the waning of El Nino.”

Global Drought
Global Drought