Tag: global warming

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Rate of Acceleration

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By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukhurjee
August 25, 2023

How fast are humans causing the climate to change? When we started our experiments in the 1990’s, we thought the time scale was in millenniums. If climate change were happening on a linear basis, we would have been correct; however, by the late 90’s we were convinced climate change was non-linear.

By 2020, there was enough data to see the “doubling period” of some anthropogenic climate affects had gone from 100 years to 10 years. For instance the rate of sea level rise has gone from about 1.5 millimeters per year to over 3 millimeters. We expect to see the doubling period to continue to shrink raising the possibility of sea levels rising a foot/year by 2050.

Though the rate of change in climate disasters’ intensity, duration, and likelihood vary according to the type of extreme weather, a “rule-of-thumb” can be derived from the Canada wildfires of 2023. The World Weather Attribution Organization found, “Climate change made the cumulative severity of Québec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur.”

50% more intense
7 x more likely

These numbers may be similar in other catastrophes like hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, floods, tornadoes, and sea level rise.

If the doubling time remains at 10 years, we could see extreme events 100% more intense and/or longer in duration, as well as, 14 times more likely to occur. As mentioned above, we expect the doubling time to be reduced. If the doubling time is 5 years, in ten years we could see 200% more intense and longer extreme weather events being 28 times more likely to occur.

At what rate is climate change accelerating?
A: Rapidly
As described above, we do not know the rate of acceleration other than to say it is more rapid than previously thought. In the summer of 2023, the extreme temperatures left most climate scientists shocked. The average earth surface temperature recorded record highs for months reaching over 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement calls for keeping temperatures below 1.5 degrees. Scientists concur that a rise of 2 degrees will trigger feedback loops and tipping points. Triggering these tipping points results in the CO2 stored in nature to be released. Though we do not know how much carbon is stored in nature, it would be reasonable to assume that the temperature could be pushed from 3 degrees to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Humans can not thrive above a rise of 1.5 degrees. Humans can not survive if the temperature rises 6 degrees.

About the 2023 wildfires in Hawaii, Governor Josh Green said, “For perspective, we’ve had six fire emergencies this August, we had six fire emergencies between 1953 and 2003. That’s how- how fast things are changing. I know that there is debate out there whether we should be talking about climate change or not. Well, let’s be real world, climate change is here we are in the midst of it with a hotter planet, and fiercer storms.”

About the catastrophic die-off of 10,000 emperor penguin chicks in the Antarctic, Dr. Caroline Holmes of the British Antarctic Survey (an expert on Antarctic sea-ice) said, “What we’re seeing right now is so far outside what we’ve observed previously. We expected change but I don’t think we expected so much change so rapidly.”

What you can do today. How to save the planet.

Climate Change: The End of Times

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Code Red for Humanity

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The UN’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control) release their latest report that has been compiled and peer-reviewed over the last 8 years.

U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres described the report as “a code red for humanity.”

“The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk,” said Mr. Guterres.

Some of the changes already set in motion will be “irreversible” for centuries to come.

A press release from the IPCC states:

The report provides new estimates of the chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C in the next decades, and finds that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.

The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming. This assessment is based on improved observational datasets to assess historical warming, as well progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

“This report is a reality check,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte. “We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare.”

Every region facing increasing changes

Many characteristics of climate change directly depend on the level of global warming, but what people experience is often very different to the global average. For example, warming over land is larger than the global average, and it is more than twice as high in the Arctic.

“Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with additional warming,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Panmao Zhai.

The report projects that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows.

But it is not just about temperature. Climate change is bringing multiple different changes in different regions – which will all increase with further warming. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snow and ice, coastal areas and oceans. For example:

* Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.
* Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.
* Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.
* Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
* Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
* For cities, some aspects of climate change may be amplified, including heat (since urban areas are usually warmer than their surroundings), flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities.

For the first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation, and other decision-making, and a new framework that helps translate physical changes in the climate – heat, cold, rain, drought, snow, wind, coastal flooding and more – into what they mean for society and ecosystems.

This regional information can be explored in detail in the newly developed Interactive Atlas interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch as well as regional fact sheets, the technical summary, and underlying report.

Human influence on the past and future climate

“It has been clear for decades that the Earth’s climate is changing, and the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed,” said Masson-Delmotte. Yet the new report also reflects major advances in the science of attribution – understanding the role of climate change in intensifying specific weather and climate events such as extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall events.

The report also shows that human actions still have the potential to determine the future course of climate. The evidence is clear that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main driver of climate change, even as other greenhouse gases and air pollutants also affect the climate.

“Stabilizing the climate will require strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate,” said Zhai.

More on The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe Cumulative Costs of Climate Change

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“The crisis carries a profound warning. As climate change brings more frequent and intense storms, floods, heat waves, wildfires and other extreme events, it is placing growing stress on the foundations of the country’s economy: Its network of roads and railways, drinking-water systems, power plants, electrical grids, industrial waste sites and even homes. Failures in just one sector can set off a domino effect of breakdowns in hard-to-predict ways,” as reported by The New York Times in the article Texas Blackouts Point to Coast-to-Coast Crises Waiting to Happen.

“We are colliding with a future of extremes,” said Alice Hill, who oversaw planning for climate risks on the National Security Council during the Obama administration. “We base all our choices about risk management on what’s occurred in the past, and that is no longer a safe guide.”

“Sewer systems are overflowing more often as powerful rainstorms exceed their design capacity. Coastal homes and highways are collapsing as intensified runoff erodes cliffs. Coal ash, the toxic residue produced by coal-burning plants, is spilling into rivers as floods overwhelm barriers meant to hold it back. Homes once beyond the reach of wildfires are burning in blazes they were never designed to withstand.”

“I am extremely concerned by the lack of emergency-management expertise reflected in Biden’s climate team,” said Samantha Montano, an assistant professor at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy who focuses on disaster policy. “There’s an urgency here that still is not being reflected.”

A White House spokesman, Vedant Patel, said in a statement, “Building resilient and sustainable infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather and a changing climate will play an integral role in creating millions of good paying, union jobs” while cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

“All these issues are converging,” said Robert D. Bullard, a professor at Texas Southern University who studies wealth and racial disparities related to the environment. “And there’s simply no place in this country that’s not going to have to deal with climate change.”

bookmark_borderWill Tree Species Survive Climate Change?

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A Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources article reported:

The theory of evolution suggests that species will adapt to changing environmental conditions. The belief is that these changes occur over long periods of geologic time.

But, instead of warming over a period of 1,000 years, the climate is changing faster due to human activity — several degrees per century (100 years).

Due to the rate of climate change, the gradual natural selection of genetic traits that allow species to adapt and reproduce over time may not be enough to preserve the abundance of tree species in Pennsylvania.

Some tree species won’t be able to thrive here as the climate continues to change faster than the plants can adapt.

Northern species like mountain maple, American beech, balsam fir, paper birch, and quaking aspen are especially at risk. Our climate may warm too quickly for these species to adapt before dying out.

Yet, warming due to climate change is not the only threat to the commonwealth’s trees.

Wetter Conditions Impact Many Tree Species

Raining.jpg
Rainy day in Penn’s Woods.

Last year (2018), many areas of the state set records for number of days of rain and total annual rainfall.

Climate change scientists forecasted that the northeastern U.S. climate would become not only warmer, but wetter — which is be proving to be true.

Since 1991, heavy rain events have increased more than 30 percent when compared to the 1901-1960 period. (source: National Climate Assessment)

Many Pennsylvania tree species do not thrive in continuous soggy conditions; and could significantly decline across the state over the long term.

The American mountain ash is a species which may suffer double risk due to its northern habit and upland site preference.

Given current climate trends and future considerations, it wouldn’t make much sense to plant northern/upland species.

A more practical strategy would be to choose climate change-resilient trees to replace those we lose.

Climate Change-Resilient Trees for Pennsylvania

Climate change-resilient trees for Pennsylvania should be southern tree species that tolerate or prefer wetter soil.

Species meeting these criteria include:

  • Sycamore
  • Hackberry
  • Boxelder
  • Eastern redbud

hackberry.JPG
Bark of Hackberry tree.

IMG_0524 (2).jpg
Spring blooms on Eastern redbud tree.

Suitable trees for a warming climate, but well-drained sites include several oak and hickory varieties:

  • Pin oak
  • Black oak
  • Shagbark hickory
  • Mockernut hickory

Other adaptable species likely to be climate change-resilient include:

  • Slippery elm
  • Black gum
  • Shortleaf pine
  • Eastern hophornbeam

New Thinking in Forest Management

Tree Planting.jpg
Newly planted trees in forest.

Climate change doesn’t mean the end of Penn’s Woods, but it does require new thinking when examining what tree species we should plant.

Savvy growers may want to think about choosing trees with fungal and insect resistance — as some southern pests are moving northward.

Climate change caused by human activities will outpace some native trees’ ability to adapt and persist.

Wise choices for replacements could be part of the solution to ensure that our forests remain healthy, viable, and productive.

For more information about climate change predictions for tree species, see Appendix E in DCNR’s Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan (PDF).

Foliage Spoilage & the Trees’ Canopy Collapse

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Disasters Made for Costliest Year

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports:
2017 will be remembered as a year of extremes for the U.S. as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, fires and freezes claimed hundreds of lives and visited economic hardship upon the nation. Recovery from the ravages of three major Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and an extreme and ongoing wildfire season in the West is expected to continue well into the new year

Billion-dollar disasters in 2017

Last year, the U.S. experienced 16 weather and climate disasters each with losses exceeding $1 billion, totaling approximately $306 billion — a new U.S. record.

Far more tragic was the human toll. At least 362 people died and many more were injured during the course of the disasters that included:

1 freeze;
1 drought (affected multiple areas);
1 wildfire (affected multiple areas);
2 floods;
3 major hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria); and
8 severe storms.

The biggest newsmakers include the western U.S. wildfires that caused damages tallying $18 billion — triple the previous U.S. record. Losses from Hurricane Harvey exceeded $125 billion, which ranked second only to Hurricane Katrina, the costliest storm in the 38-year period of record. Hurricanes Maria and Irma had total damages of $90 billion and $50 billion, respectively. Hurricane Maria now ranks as third costliest weather and climate disaster on record for the nation, with Irma coming in close behind as fifth costliest.

Since 1980, the U.S. has sustained 219 weather and climate disasters that have exceeded $1.5 trillion in overall damages to date.

Billion Dollar Disasters
Billion Dollar Disasters

16 weather and climate disasters each with losses exceeding $1 billion

During 2017, the U.S. experienced a historic year of weather and climate disasters. In total, the U.S. was impacted by 16 separate billion-dollar disaster events tying 2011 for the record number of billion-dollar disasters for an entire calendar year. In fact, 2017 arguably has more events than 2011 given that our analysis traditionally counts all U.S. billion-dollar wildfires, as regional-scale, seasonal events, not as multiple isolated events.

More notable than the high frequency of these events is the cumulative cost, which exceeds $300 billion in 2017 — a new U.S. annual record. The cumulative damage of these 16 U.S. events during 2017 is $306.2 billion, which shatters the previous U.S. annual record cost of $214.8 billion (CPI-adjusted), established in 2005 due to the impacts of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

bookmark_border2017 3rd Warmest Year

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports:
The average U.S. temperature in 2017 was 54.6 degrees F (2.6 degrees F above average), making 2017 third warmest year in 123 years of record-keeping, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. In fact, the five warmest years on record for the U.S. all have occurred since 2006.

2017 was also was the 21st consecutive year that the annual average temperature exceeded the average. For the third consecutive year, every state across the contiguous U.S. and Alaska experienced above-average annual temperatures.

bookmark_borderWhy “Fresh Air and Sunshine” is Dangerous

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By Daniel Brouse

Q: Do you know what are two of the most dangerous exposures for children and the elderly?
A: Fresh air and sunshine. Either may be hazardous; however, when fresh air and sunshine are combined, the result can be extreme.

On days like today, do not go out and play.

The sun can damage your skin and cause cancer. Air pollution causes many health risks, too.


Fresh Air + Sunshine = Dangerous
Sunshine is also part of a deadly reaction. When combined with heat and volatile gases in the air, ultraviolet light causes a deadly reaction. The result is tropospheric ozone.

The dangerous ozone (O3) is created when vehicle (and other) exhaust is not completely combusted. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in the exhaust react to temperature and sunlight creating tropospheric ozone (O3).

The ozone in the air can cause permanent damage to your respiratory and immune systems. Millions of micro-explosions enter through your mouth and nose (and to some extent eyes, ears and skin)… then, if lucky, complete their short lives in your lungs. (NOTE: Lucky, for the length of their life. Unlucky, for the length of yours.)

bookmark_borderWARNING! Hold Your Breath / Air Quality Alert

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By Daniel Brouse

Many days in the Philadelphia region are not healthy for breathing. On “Ozone Action Alert Days” you are advised to avoid outside activities. Children should not play outdoors. Avoid running and other fitness activities. Do not breathe in unconditioned air. Low level ozone is volatile and causes micro-explosions in your lungs that result in chronic respiratory and immune system damage. The more and harder you breathe, the more damage you cause to your body. Avoid exercise.

Pollution is the leading cause of death and illness. Low level (tropospheric) ozone is a major contributor to air pollution diseases.

Also see: “Why Fresh Air + Sunshine = Dangerous”

View the current air quality for Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Region started the season with three Action Alert days in a row.

June 13, 2017

Dangerous Air Quality / June 13, 2017
Dangerous Air Quality / June 13, 2017

June 12, 2017

Unhealthy Air Quality June 12, 2017
Unhealthy Air Quality June 12, 2017

June 11, 2017

Unhealthy Air Quality June 11, 2017
Unhealthy Air Quality June 11, 2017

NOTE: Graphics are from the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency of the United States of America)

Death By Ozone | The Ozone Know Zone

Ozone is not only killing humans, it is also killing the trees. The chain reaction is known as an adverse feedback loop.

Dying Trees, The Membrane Domain

  1. Tree Death Questions
  2. The Earth’s Status
  3. Answers About Ozone and Dying Trees
  4. Ozone Questions Part 4
  5. Ozone Answers Part 5

bookmark_borderCatastrophic Impacts of Climate Change

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A study by University College London (UCL) concludes we heave severely underestimated the health impacts of global warming. “The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will dramatically increase.”

“In essence, whether we respond to “the biggest global health threat of the 21st century” is no longer a technical or economic question — it is political. An effective international agreement will be one that supports stronger efforts everywhere and at every level,” the report says.

The Business Insider reports, “The direct health impacts will come from heat waves, floods, droughts and storms, but the indirect impacts, such as changes in infectious disease patterns, pollution, malnutrition, mass migrations, and conflicts will be just as impactful.”

“Our analysis clearly shows that by tackling climate change, we can also benefit health, and tackling climate change in fact represents one of the greatest opportunities to benefit human health for generations to come,” Commission co-Chair Professor Anthony Costello, Director of the UCL Institute for Global Health told UCL News.

“The difficulty, essentially, is ourselves: the tendency of humans to ignore or discount unpleasant facts or difficult choices, the nature of companies and countries to defend their own rather than collective interests and the narrow, short term horizons of most human institutions, which feed into the difficulties of global negotiations,” the report concludes.

bookmark_borderThe Sixth Mass Extinction Is Here

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Researchers from several universities have released a study that concludes the Earth has entered into its sixth mass extinction. Rob Jordan author of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment states, “There is no longer any doubt: We are entering a mass extinction that threatens humanity’s existence.”

The onset of the extinction is due to human activity. Paul Ehrlich, the Bing Professor of Population Studies in biology and a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, calls for “fast action to conserve threatened species, populations and habitat, but warn that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.”

“The study shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event,” Ehrlich said. “There are examples of species all over the world that are essentially the walking dead. We are sawing off the limb that we are sitting on.”

The study shows that “even with extremely conservative estimates, species are disappearing up to about 100 times faster than the normal rate between mass extinctions.”

“If it is allowed to continue, life would take many millions of years to recover, and our species itself would likely disappear early on,” said lead author Gerardo Ceballos of the Universidad Autónoma de México.

“We are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event,” one of the authors of the paper told the BBC.

Gerardo Ceballos, lead author of the research, added: “If it is allowed to continue, life would take many millions of years to recover and our species itself would likely disappear early on”.

The main causes of the mass extinction are:

 

  • Land clearing for farming, logging and settlement
  • Introduction of invasive species
  • Carbon emissions that drive climate change and ocean acidification
  • Toxins that alter and poison ecosystems

 

Extinction Chart
Extinction Chart