Tag: ozone

bookmark_borderCanada’s Oil Sands, Wildfires, and the Hidden Ozone Feedback

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https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/wildfire-season-returns-canadas-oil-sands-2026-05-31

A recent Reuters report highlighted a familiar concern in Alberta: another wildfire season threatening Canada’s oil sands region. The article focused primarily on risks to energy production, facility shutdowns, and the economic impacts of increasingly severe wildfire activity. Yet an important aspect of these events often goes overlooked. Beyond the immediate threats to infrastructure and public safety lies a much larger atmospheric consequence: ozone formation.

Wildfires and fossil fuel production intersect in ways that can amplify air pollution, damage ecosystems, and accelerate climate change. The resulting ozone feedback may be one of the least recognized but most significant consequences of recurring wildfire seasons in Canada’s oil sands region.

Wildfires Are Also Ozone Events

When boreal forests burn, they release enormous quantities of atmospheric pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), and fine particulate matter.

These emissions are the raw ingredients required for the formation of ground-level, or tropospheric, ozone.

Unlike smoke, ozone is not emitted directly by a fire. Instead, it forms downwind as wildfire emissions react in sunlight. As smoke plumes age and travel, ozone concentrations can continue to increase hundreds or even thousands of miles from the fire itself.

This means that a wildfire burning near Fort McMurray is not merely a local event. It can become an ozone-producing system affecting air quality across much of North America.

The Oil Sands Region as an Ozone Amplifier

The Alberta oil sands region contains a vast network of industrial facilities, including extraction operations, upgraders, power generation facilities, transportation systems, and processing plants.

These activities emit additional nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and methane.

When wildfire emissions mix with industrial emissions, atmospheric chemistry becomes even more favorable for ozone production. In effect, wildfire smoke and fossil fuel emissions can work together to create enhanced ozone formation.

The result is not simply more smoke, but more ozone—a pollutant that affects human health, agricultural productivity, forest growth, and climate.

Long-Distance Impacts

The greatest ozone impacts may occur far from the fires themselves.

Canadian wildfire smoke routinely travels across the United States, reaching cities such as Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, and Boston. While residents often notice visible haze, they may be less aware of the invisible ozone that develops as those smoke plumes age.

Recent studies suggest that wildfire-driven ozone is increasingly offsetting decades of progress made through reductions in vehicle and industrial emissions.

In other words, communities may experience worsening ozone pollution despite continued improvements in traditional air-quality controls.

Ozone Damage to Boreal Forests

The Reuters article understandably focused on the threat wildfires pose to oil production. However, the surviving forests face another threat after the flames pass.

Ozone is toxic to vegetation.

When ozone enters leaves through plant stomata, it damages cellular structures involved in photosynthesis. The result is reduced growth, increased stress, greater vulnerability to disease, and diminished carbon uptake.

This creates an important feedback loop:

  1. Wildfires emit ozone precursors.
  2. Ozone concentrations rise.
  3. Ozone damages surviving forests.
  4. Forest productivity declines.
  5. Carbon sequestration decreases.
  6. More carbon remains in the atmosphere.
  7. Additional warming increases future wildfire risk.

This self-reinforcing cycle links wildfire activity directly to ecosystem decline and climate acceleration.

Methane and the Global Ozone Pathway

The oil sands region also contributes methane emissions associated with extraction, processing, transportation, and storage.

Methane plays two climate roles.

First, it acts as a powerful greenhouse gas.

Second, methane oxidation contributes to the formation of background tropospheric ozone on a global scale.

Unlike wildfire-generated ozone, which forms over hours or days, methane-driven ozone develops over months and years. The result is a persistent increase in global ozone concentrations that affects ecosystems far from the original emission source.

This means the oil sands region can contribute simultaneously to both short-term wildfire-driven ozone events and long-term methane-driven ozone accumulation.

The Hidden Climate Feedback

Viewed through the lens of atmospheric chemistry, the story of Canada’s oil sands and wildfires extends far beyond threats to energy production.

Three interconnected systems are converging:

  • Climate change is increasing wildfire frequency and intensity.
  • Wildfires are releasing massive quantities of ozone precursors.
  • Oil and gas operations contribute additional precursor emissions and methane.

Together, these processes increase ozone concentrations, damage ecosystems, weaken carbon sinks, and contribute to additional warming.

The result is a powerful climate feedback loop in which wildfires, ozone formation, ecosystem decline, and fossil fuel emissions reinforce one another.

While the flames themselves draw the headlines, the ozone produced in their wake may represent one of the most significant long-term consequences of wildfire activity in the oil sands region. Invisible, widespread, and persistent, ozone serves as a critical link connecting wildfires, fossil fuel development, ecosystem degradation, and climate change.

bookmark_borderOzone as a Climate Multiplier: Key Coupling Agent in Chemistry–Climate Feedbacks

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Abstract

Recent climate research increasingly indicates that ozone plays a critical role in coupled chemistry–climate feedback systems influencing atmospheric warming, ecosystem stability, and global carbon cycling. While stratospheric ozone provides essential protection from ultraviolet radiation, surface-level ozone (O₃) acts as a potent phytotoxic pollutant that damages vegetation and suppresses photosynthetic carbon uptake. As warming intensifies heatwaves, drought, wildfire activity, and atmospheric stagnation, ozone formation is increasing across many regions of the world. This paper examines ozone not merely as a pollutant, but as a climate feedback multiplier capable of amplifying atmospheric warming, weakening biosphere productivity, destabilizing carbon sinks, and accelerating nonlinear Earth system feedbacks.

1. Introduction

Climate change is increasingly understood not as a single forcing mechanism, but as a complex network of interacting atmospheric, ecological, chemical, and biological feedback loops. While carbon dioxide (CO₂) remains the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas, secondary feedback systems are becoming increasingly important in shaping the trajectory, intensity, and structure of future warming.

Among these feedbacks, ozone (O₃) occupies a uniquely important position because it functions simultaneously as:

  • a greenhouse gas,
  • a regulator of atmospheric chemistry,
  • a biological stressor,
  • and a climate feedback multiplier.

Unlike many climate variables that operate within a single subsystem, ozone directly links atmospheric chemistry, ecosystem health, wildfire dynamics, plant physiology, circulation patterns, and carbon cycling.

As a result, ozone amplification mechanisms can accelerate warming indirectly by weakening the very biological systems responsible for removing carbon from the atmosphere.

2. Ozone in the Climate System

2.1 Stratospheric Versus Surface-Level Ozone

Ozone affects the climate system differently depending on altitude.

Stratospheric ozone absorbs harmful ultraviolet radiation and regulates upper-atmospheric temperature structure. Surface-level ozone, by contrast, forms through photochemical reactions involving:

  • nitrogen oxides (NOₓ),
  • volatile organic compounds (VOCs),
  • methane,
  • wildfire smoke,
  • industrial pollution,
  • and intense sunlight.

Unlike protective stratospheric ozone, ground-level ozone acts as a powerful phytotoxin and respiratory pollutant.

2.2 Climate-Driven Ozone Formation

Surface ozone production accelerates under conditions increasingly associated with climate change, including:

  • prolonged heatwaves,
  • stagnant atmospheric circulation,
  • drought,
  • wildfire smoke intrusions,
  • and enhanced photochemical activity.

This relationship is critically important because warming itself increases the probability of ozone-producing atmospheric conditions.

In effect, warming creates atmospheric environments increasingly favorable for ozone amplification.

3. Ozone as a Climate Feedback Multiplier

3.1 The Multiplier Effect

Ozone functions as a climate multiplier because it amplifies multiple interacting climate stressors simultaneously rather than acting through a single pathway.

Unlike direct greenhouse gases that primarily alter radiative forcing alone, ozone intensifies climate destabilization through interconnected biological, atmospheric, and ecological mechanisms.

Ozone amplifies climate change by:

  • reducing plant carbon uptake,
  • increasing ecosystem stress,
  • accelerating forest decline,
  • worsening wildfire susceptibility,
  • damaging agricultural productivity,
  • intensifying respiratory stress,
  • altering atmospheric chemistry,
  • and reinforcing heat-related feedback loops.

This makes ozone a systemic amplifier rather than an isolated environmental pollutant.

3.2 Ozone Damage and Declining Plant Productivity

Surface-level ozone is increasingly becoming a major threat to global plant productivity.

Elevated ozone exposure damages plant tissues and interferes with stomatal function — the microscopic pore system plants use to exchange gases with the atmosphere.

Once ozone enters leaf tissues, it generates reactive oxygen species that:

  • damage cellular membranes,
  • impair chloroplast activity,
  • suppress photosynthesis,
  • reduce growth,
  • and accelerate biological stress responses.

As ozone exposure rises, plants become less efficient at removing atmospheric CO₂ through photosynthesis.

3.3 Suppression of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP)

One of the most important consequences of ozone exposure is the suppression of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) — the total amount of carbon ecosystems remove from the atmosphere.

Under elevated ozone conditions:

  • stomata partially close,
  • carbon fixation declines,
  • photosynthetic efficiency weakens,
  • and plant metabolism becomes increasingly stressed.

This reduces biosphere carbon uptake precisely when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are rapidly increasing.

In effect, ozone weakens one of Earth’s primary natural climate stabilization systems.

4. Coupled Ozone–Climate Feedback Systems

4.1 Reinforcing Atmospheric Feedbacks

The ozone–climate interaction forms a reinforcing feedback structure:

  1. Greenhouse warming intensifies heatwaves and stagnation
  2. Ozone production increases
  3. Vegetation productivity declines
  4. Carbon uptake weakens
  5. More atmospheric CO₂ remains airborne
  6. Additional warming occurs
  7. Ozone formation accelerates further

This feedback loop is nonlinear because ozone simultaneously affects multiple subsystems.

4.2 Interaction with Wildfires

Wildfires significantly intensify ozone-related feedbacks.

Fire emissions release:

  • nitrogen oxides,
  • volatile organic compounds,
  • methane,
  • particulate pollution,
  • and brown carbon aerosols.

These compounds enhance ozone formation both regionally and globally.

At the same time, ozone-damaged forests become more vulnerable to drought stress, insect outbreaks, and future wildfire ignition.

This creates a coupled fire–ozone–carbon feedback cycle capable of accelerating ecosystem destabilization.

4.3 Atmospheric Chemistry and Methane Coupling

Ozone also interacts strongly with methane chemistry and atmospheric oxidizing capacity.

Changes in ozone concentrations alter hydroxyl radical (OH) chemistry, which influences methane lifetime in the atmosphere.

Because methane is an extremely powerful greenhouse gas, ozone-driven shifts in atmospheric chemistry may indirectly amplify radiative forcing beyond ozone’s direct effects alone.

5. Ozone and Carbon Sink Destabilization

Historically, forests, grasslands, wetlands, and soils absorbed a substantial fraction of human carbon emissions annually.

Increasing ozone exposure threatens this stabilizing mechanism.

As ozone suppresses photosynthesis and damages vegetation:

  • forest productivity declines,
  • drought resilience weakens,
  • carbon storage capacity deteriorates,
  • and ecosystem mortality increases.

Over time, ecosystems that once functioned as carbon sinks are transitioning toward carbon neutrality and in many cases become net carbon sources.

This represents one of the most dangerous characteristics of ozone as a climate multiplier: it weakens Earth’s ability to self-regulate atmospheric carbon concentrations.

6. Implications for Climate Modeling

Many climate models historically emphasized direct greenhouse forcing while underrepresenting the full complexity of ozone–biosphere interactions.

However, ozone feedbacks introduce multiple nonlinear amplification pathways involving:

  • plant physiology,
  • atmospheric chemistry,
  • wildfire dynamics,
  • methane interactions,
  • and ecosystem resilience.

As these systems interact, climate response becomes increasingly nonlinear and probabilistic rather than gradual and predictable.

This may help explain why some observed climate responses are evolving faster than earlier expectations.

7. Discussion

Ozone should no longer be viewed solely as an air pollution issue. It is increasingly functioning as a large-scale Earth system feedback amplifier capable of accelerating climate instability across multiple interconnected domains simultaneously.

Importantly, ozone amplification is not confined to one sector. It affects:

  • food systems,
  • forests,
  • biodiversity,
  • atmospheric chemistry,
  • public health,
  • hydrology,
  • and global carbon cycling.

Because ozone intensifies under the same heat and stagnation conditions created by greenhouse warming, it represents a self-reinforcing multiplier embedded within the broader climate system.

8. Conclusion

Surface-level ozone represents one of the most important secondary amplifiers within the modern climate system.

Climate change is not only increasing greenhouse gas emissions through fires, drought, ecosystem collapse, and permafrost thaw — it is simultaneously weakening the biological systems responsible for removing carbon from the atmosphere in the first place.

As warming intensifies ozone formation and ozone suppresses biosphere productivity, Earth’s natural carbon sinks are becoming progressively less effective at stabilizing atmospheric carbon concentrations.

In this sense, ozone operates as a climate multiplier: amplifying warming, weakening ecosystem resilience, accelerating carbon-cycle disruption, and reinforcing the broader network of interacting climate feedback loops driving Earth system destabilization.

bookmark_borderOzone Feedbacks From Carbon Combustion

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Tropospheric Ozone, Ecosystem Collapse, and the Failure of Biofuel Narratives

Daniel Brouse & Sidd Mukherjee

May 9, 2026

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone has emerged as one of the most underestimated systemic threats within the climate crisis. While carbon dioxide remains the primary driver of anthropogenic warming, ground-level ozone functions as a powerful secondary feedback mechanism capable of weakening ecosystems, reducing agricultural productivity, impairing forest carbon sequestration, and accelerating climate instability. Contrary to prevailing narratives, biofuels are not inherently climate-neutral or climate-positive when analyzed within full atmospheric and ecological contexts. All forms of carbon combustion generate ozone precursors, and many biofuels produce equivalent or greater ozone-forming emissions than fossil fuels due to lower combustion efficiency and elevated volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions.

This paper examines the interconnected relationships among fossil fuel combustion, biofuel combustion, tropospheric ozone formation, ecosystem degradation, wildfire amplification, and declining net primary productivity (NPP). We synthesize recent peer-reviewed findings alongside long-term field observations from Pennsylvania forests demonstrating substantial canopy decline, reduced productivity, and increasing forest mortality consistent with ozone stress and nonlinear climate feedback dynamics.

The evidence suggests that tropospheric ozone is no longer merely an air-quality issue but a central driver of cascading ecological destabilization. The weakening of global carbon sinks—including tropical forests, temperate forests, and boreal systems—may represent one of the earliest indicators of systemic climate tipping behavior.

1. Introduction

Biofuels are widely promoted as a solution to climate change under the assumption that they are “carbon neutral” or even “carbon negative.” This assumption is increasingly inconsistent with observed atmospheric chemistry, ecosystem behavior, and lifecycle analysis.

All forms of carbon combustion produce nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and other ozone precursors. Under sunlight, these compounds react photochemically to form tropospheric ozone (O₃), a highly reactive phytotoxic pollutant. Unlike stratospheric ozone, which protects life from ultraviolet radiation, tropospheric ozone damages living tissue, impairs plant function, and contributes directly to respiratory and cardiovascular disease.

In many cases, biofuels generate ozone-forming emissions equal to or greater than those produced by fossil fuels due to incomplete combustion characteristics and elevated VOC release. Ethanol-blended fuels are particularly notable for increasing ozone precursor formation under high-temperature atmospheric conditions.

The widespread adoption of ethanol blending in the United States following the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) of 2005 coincided with measurable ecological deterioration in several regions, including Pennsylvania. Ethanol blending requirements—commonly 10% in gasoline and substantially higher concentrations in some diesel-related applications—corresponded with observable reductions in plant productivity and increasing forest decline beginning in the early 2000s.

The climate implications extend far beyond local pollution. Tropospheric ozone weakens one of Earth’s most critical climate defense systems: the biosphere itself.

2. Tropospheric Ozone and Ecosystem Degradation

2.1 Ozone as a Phytotoxic Pollutant

Ground-level ozone enters plant leaves through stomata, microscopic openings responsible for gas exchange during photosynthesis. Once inside plant tissue, ozone initiates oxidative stress, damages cellular structures, and triggers stomatal closure.

This process produces several cascading effects:

  • Reduced photosynthetic efficiency
  • Lower carbon uptake
  • Decreased growth rates
  • Impaired water regulation
  • Increased susceptibility to drought and heat stress
  • Greater vulnerability to pests and disease

The result is declining net primary productivity (NPP), reduced ecosystem resilience, and ultimately forest mortality.

Tropospheric ozone therefore acts not merely as a pollutant but as a systemic destabilizer of planetary carbon regulation.

3. Evidence of Declining Forest Productivity

3.1 Tropical Forest Carbon Sink Decline

A landmark 2024 study published in Nature Geoscience (“Reduced productivity and carbon drawdown of tropical forests from ground-level ozone exposure”) found that anthropogenic ozone pollution reduced tropical forest net primary productivity by approximately 17% globally since 2000.

Key findings included:

  • Up to 10.9% regional productivity losses in Asia
  • A global reduction of approximately 0.29 petagrams of carbon sequestration annually
  • Accelerating declines in forest carbon drawdown capacity

These findings indicate that ozone pollution is directly weakening the planet’s natural carbon sinks at a globally significant scale.

Rather than mitigating warming, damaged forests increasingly fail to absorb atmospheric CO₂ efficiently, allowing greenhouse gas accumulation to accelerate.

3.2 Pennsylvania Long-Term Forest Observations

Our own long-term field observations in Pennsylvania illustrate these dynamics with alarming clarity.

Since approximately 2003, old-growth forests monitored across multiple intervals have exhibited:

  • Roughly 40% foliage loss
  • Significant canopy thinning
  • Approximately 33% reductions in canopy height
  • Increased rates of premature mortality

These observations mirror global findings associated with ozone stress, heat stress, and hydrological disruption.

Importantly, these declines have occurred even in mature forest systems historically considered resilient. The implications are profound: if old-growth forests are destabilizing, then planetary carbon sink reliability may already be deteriorating faster than current climate models assume.

4. Ozone Feedback Loops and Nonlinear Climate Dynamics

4.1 Interconnected Feedback Systems

Tropospheric ozone participates in a series of reinforcing nonlinear feedback loops:

Fossil fuel and biofuel combustion
→ increased ozone precursors
→ higher ozone concentrations
→ reduced forest productivity
→ weaker carbon sequestration
→ increased atmospheric CO₂
→ greater warming and drought
→ more wildfire activity
→ additional CO₂ and ozone precursor emissions

This cycle is self-reinforcing.

Higher temperatures further accelerate photochemical ozone formation, especially in industrial and transportation-dense regions.

The result is not linear warming but cascading systemic destabilization.

4.2 Wildfire Amplification

Ozone-stressed forests are increasingly vulnerable to wildfire ignition and spread.

Wildfires then:

  • Release massive quantities of stored carbon
  • Produce additional ozone precursors
  • Destroy future carbon sequestration capacity
  • Accelerate desertification and ecosystem collapse

This relationship creates a dangerous compounding mechanism where forests transition from climate stabilizers into climate accelerators.

Recent observations suggest that global forests may already be shifting from net carbon sinks toward net carbon sources.

5. The Amazon and Large-Scale Carbon Sink Failure

The Amazon rainforest represents one of the clearest examples of ozone-driven systemic vulnerability.

Tropospheric ozone impairs photosynthesis throughout the Amazon basin, weakening tree resilience while warming and deforestation intensify drought frequency and severity.

As forest health declines:

  • Carbon sequestration weakens
  • Fire vulnerability rises
  • Regional rainfall recycling diminishes
  • Large-scale dieback risk increases

The Amazon’s hydrological system is critically important for South American rainfall generation. Forest degradation therefore compounds both carbon and water-cycle disruption.

If tipping thresholds are crossed, the Amazon could transition irreversibly from one of Earth’s largest carbon sinks into a major carbon emitter.

6. Human Health Implications

Tropospheric ozone is also a major public health threat.

Chronic ozone exposure is strongly associated with:

  • Asthma
  • Chronic respiratory disease
  • Cardiovascular stress
  • Increased hospitalizations
  • Premature mortality

Children, the elderly, and vulnerable populations face disproportionate risk.

The same combustion systems driving climate destabilization are simultaneously degrading human health.

Thus, ozone feedbacks represent a dual crisis:

  • ecosystem destabilization,
  • and worsening public health outcomes.

7. Rethinking Biofuel Narratives

The assumption that biofuels are inherently sustainable ignores several critical realities:

  • All carbon combustion generates ozone precursors
  • Monocrop agriculture often degrades soils and biodiversity
  • Annual carbon cycling does not create durable carbon sinks
  • Land-use conversion can increase net emissions
  • Ozone pollution undermines ecosystem carbon uptake

Claims of “carbon-negative” biofuels frequently fail to account for:

  • full lifecycle emissions,
  • atmospheric chemistry,
  • ozone formation,
  • ecosystem degradation,
  • and carbon sink impairment.

Replacing one combustion-based system with another does not resolve the underlying atmospheric feedback mechanisms.

8. Conclusion

Tropospheric ozone is emerging as one of the most important yet underrecognized feedback mechanisms in the climate system.

Its impacts extend across:

  • forests,
  • agriculture,
  • hydrology,
  • biodiversity,
  • public health,
  • and atmospheric carbon regulation.

The evidence increasingly suggests that ozone pollution is helping transform global forests from carbon sinks into carbon sources, accelerating climate instability through interconnected nonlinear feedback loops.

This changes the policy discussion fundamentally.

The climate crisis is no longer solely about reducing CO₂ emissions. It is also about preserving the biosphere’s remaining ability to regulate climate through carbon uptake and ecological resilience.

Addressing ozone requires integrated systems-level policy:

  • reducing fossil fuel combustion,
  • reconsidering combustion-based biofuel strategies,
  • limiting NOx and VOC emissions,
  • protecting forests,
  • and recognizing the interconnected nature of climate, biodiversity, atmospheric chemistry, and human health.

Failure to address these feedbacks risks accelerating Earth toward irreversible ecological tipping points.

The question is no longer whether these nonlinear feedback systems exist.

The question is how rapidly they are now accelerating.

References

bookmark_borderHealth Impacts of Air Pollution

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By Daniel Brouse
June 30, 2023

The health impacts of air pollution are both cumulative and irreversible. The more polluted the air, the more severe the effects. The more polluted air you breathe over time, the more severe the effects. That is to say breathing “Moderate” quality air for 3 days might be similar to breathing “Unhealthy for Sensitive Group” quality air for 1 day. In both cases, your respiratory, circulatory, neurological, and immune systems have been damaged. A partial list of ailments include:
Alzheimer’s Disease, asthma, bronchitis, cancer, cataracts, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), dementia, developmental damage, emphysema, gastrointestinal disorders, heart ailments, heart attacks, immune system dysfunction (including susceptibility to infections), ischaemic heart disease, impaired brain development in children, kidney disease, liver disease, lung disease, premature death, pneumonia, nasal and upper respiratory tract health problems, neurological disorders, respiratory system failure, skin diseases, strokes

You can (and should) check your local air quality several times a day at AirNow.gov. The air quality index (AQI) goes from 0 to 500. An AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.

EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:

  • ground-level ozone
  • particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)
  • carbon monoxide
  • sulfur dioxide
  • nitrogen dioxide

Following is an explanation of two of these pollutants — particle pollution and ground-level ozone.

Particulate Matter (PM)

The EPA defines particulate matter (also called particle pollution): the term for a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air. Some particles, such as dust, dirt, soot, or smoke, are large or dark enough to be seen with the naked eye. Others are so small they can only be detected using an electron microscope.

Particle pollution is similar to smoking cigarettes. The more you inhale, the worse it is for you. Also, the more particles in the air you breath, the worse it is for you. Breathing air on a day with an AQI that is unhealthy is similar to smoking a half-pack of cigarettes. If you go running instead of walking, it might be equivalent to smoking 2 packs of cigarettes.

The more particulate matter you breathe in over time, the greater the cumulative effect. The impact on your health will depend on your predisposition. In all cases your risk increases for nasal and upper respiratory tract health problems, heart attacks, strokes, asthma, and bronchitis, as well as premature death from heart ailments, lung disease, and cancer. Studies show that exposure can impair brain development in children and are significantly associated with the development of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease.

Some of the impacts of particle pollution may be reversed overtime if further exposure to particle pollution is eliminated. After five years of quitting smoking, the risk of developing complications decreases by up to 50%.

The best lifestyle is to avoid particulate matter. Exercise outside only on days with a “Good” AQI under 50. If you must go out on days with an AQI over 50, wear an N95 mask. Indoors build and run a Corsi-Rosenthal Box filter.

Ground-level Ozone

Tropospheric ozone is low level ozone caused by humans. Tropospheric ozone is “bad ozone” that causes health problems in humans, plants to die and other destructive results. (Stratospheric ozone, the good ozone, is the ozone layer in the stratosphere that keeps 95-99% of the suns ultraviolet radiation from striking the earth.)

“Tropospheric ozone is formed by the interaction of sunlight, particularly ultraviolet light, with hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, which are emitted by automobiles, gasoline vapors, fossil fuel power plants, refineries, and certain other industries.” — National Center for Atmospheric Research

Ozone primarily affects the respiratory and immune systems. The damage is permanent, untreatable and often results in death. The Santa Barbara County Air Pollution Control District reports, “Roughly one out of three people in the U.S. is at risk of experiencing ozone-related health effects.”

The best lifestyle is to avoid ozone exposure. Since heat and ultraviolet light are needed to create ozone, staying indoors offers the best protection. Neither masks nor air purifiers protect from ozone exposure. (Ozone is O3 and almost the same size as Oxygen O2)

REFERENCES
Death by Ozone
COVID-19 and Air Pollution
Ozone Know Zone
Air Pollution Kills
Indoor Air Pollution: How to Purify the Air, Aromatic Plants, and Phytoncides
Corsi-Rosenthal Box filter
The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderHealth and Climate Change: Health at the Mercy of Fossil Fuels

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The Lancet released the report The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels.

Q: Are millions of people already dying as a result of human induced climate change?
A: Yes.

Q: Can millions of people’s lives still be saved?
A: Yes, “a health-centred response can still deliver a thriving future if immediate action is taken.”
“The health impacts of multiple crises are being exacerbated by persistent fossil fuel dependence and putting additional strain on health systems. This is resulting in increased risk of food insecurity, infectious disease transmission, heat-related disease, energy poverty, and deaths from exposure to air pollution.”

A call to action
After 30 years of UNFCCC negotiations, the Lancet Countdown indicators show that countries and companies continue to make choices that threaten the health and survival of people in every part of the world. As countries devise ways to recover from the coexisting crises, the evidence is unequivocal. At this critical juncture, an immediate, health-centred response can still secure a future in which world populations can not only survive, but thrive.

Key findings of the 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown

  • • Climate change is undermining every dimension of global health monitored, increasing the fragility of the global systems that health depends on, and increasing the vulnerability of populations to the coexisting geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises.
  • • Climate change is increasingly undermining global food security, exacerbating the effects of the COVID-19, geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises. New analysis of 103 countries shows that days of extreme heat, increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, accounted for an estimated 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than the average in 1981–2010 (indicator 1.4).
  • • Well-prepared health systems are essential to protect populations from the health impacts of climate change. However, global health systems have been drastically weakened by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the funds available for climate action decreased in 239 (30%) of 798 cities (indicator 2.1.3), with health systems increasingly being affected by extreme weather events and supply chain disruptions too.
  • • Insufficient climate change adaptation efforts have left health systems vulnerable to climate change-related health hazards. Only 48 of 95 countries have assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and only 63% of countries reported high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4). Increasing adaptation to climate change has the potential to simultaneously improve the capacity of health systems to manage both future infectious disease outbreaks and other health emergencies (indicator 2.3.1).
  • • Mitigation of the energy sector is crucial to keep the rise in global mean surface temperatures within the 1·5°C target set in the Paris Agreement. However, the energy sector is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Its carbon intensity decreased by less than 1% since the year the UNFCCC was signed, and a simultaneous increase in energy demand of 59% has increased total energy sector emissions to record high levels in 2021 (indicator 3.1). Now, as countries seek alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, many are backsliding to coal, and shifts in global energy supplies risk a net increase in fossil fuel production and consumption.
  • • The slow adoption of renewable energies, which contribute to only 2.2% of total global energy supply (indicator 3.1), means households remain vulnerable to highly volatile international fossil fuel markets, and millions lack access to reliable, clean sources of fuel. Traditional biomass accounts for 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, and for 96% of that in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). New analysis shows that the air in people’s homes in 62 countries analysed exceeded WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020, by 30-fold on average (indicator 3.2). The current energy and cost-of-living crises, now threatens to worsen enery poverty.
  • • A new indicator this year reveals that, on the basis of their existing production strategies and market shares, 15 of the largest oil and gas companies would exceed their share of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the 1·5°C climate target by an average of 87% (publicly-listed international companies) and 111% (state-owned national companies) in 2040 making the goals of the Paris Agreement unattainable (indicator 4.2.6).
  • • In 2019, 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion. These subsidies exceeded 10% of national health spending in 31 countries and exceeded 100% in 5 countries (indicator 4.2.4). Meanwhile, climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1).
  • • A health-centred response to the coexisting climate, energy, and cost-of-living crises provides an opportunity to deliver a healthy, low-carbon future. Transitioning to clean energy and improved energy efficiency can avert the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while also improving energy security, supporting economic recovery, preventing the 1·2 million annual deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 (indicator 3.3), and improving health outcomes by promoting active forms of travel for greener cities. The associated reduction in the burden of disease will in turn reduce the strain on overwhelmed healthcare providers, and enable better care.
  • • The media, the scientific community, corporations, and country leaders are increasingly engaging in health and climate change (indicators 5.1–5.5), and new analysis shows that 86% of updated or new Nationally Determined Contributions now reference health (indicator 5.4).
  • • Countries are attempting to cut their dependence on international oil and gas supplies in response to the war in Ukraine and energy crisis, with some focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes that a health-centred response could be emerging. However, the increased engagement and commitments must be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

Executive summary

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world’s populations to concurrent health threats.

During 2021 and 2022, extreme weather events caused devastation across every continent, adding further pressure to health services already grappling with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Floods in Australia, Brazil, China, western Europe, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Africa, and South Sudan caused thousands of deaths, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and caused billions of dollars in economic losses. Wildfires caused devastation in Canada, the USA, Greece, Algeria, Italy, Spain, and Türkiye, and record temperatures were recorded in many countries, including Australia, Canada, India, Italy, Oman, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the UK. With advancements in the science of detection and attribution studies, the influence of climate change over many events has now been quantified.

Because of the rapidly increasing temperatures, vulnerable populations (adults older than 65 years, and children younger than one year of age) were exposed to 3·7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than annually in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2), and heat-related deaths increased by 68% between 2000–04 and 2017–21 (indicator 1.1.5), a death toll that was significantly exacerbated by the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Simultaneously, the changing climate is affecting the spread of infectious diseases, putting populations at higher risk of emerging diseases and co-epidemics. Coastal waters are becoming more suitable for the transmission of Vibrio pathogens; the number of months suitable for malaria transmission increased by 31·3% in the highland areas of the Americas and 13·8% in the highland areas of Africa from 1951–60 to 2012–21, and the likelihood of dengue transmission rose by 12% in the same period (indicator 1.3.1). The coexistence of dengue outbreaks with the COVID-19 pandemic led to aggravated pressure on health systems, misdiagnosis, and difficulties in management of both diseases in many regions of South America, Asia, and Africa.

The economic losses associated with climate change impacts are also increasing pressure on families and economies already challenged with the synergistic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the international cost-of-living and energy crises, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants that good health depends on. Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021 (indicator 1.1.4), with potential income losses equivalent to 0·72% of the global economic output, increasing to 5·6% of the GDP in low Human Development Index (HDI) countries, where workers are most vulnerable to the effects of financial fluctuations (indicator 4.1.3). Meanwhile, extreme weather events caused damage worth US$253 billion in 2021, particularly burdening people in low HDI countries in which almost none of the losses were insured (indicator 4.1.1).

Through multiple and interconnected pathways, every dimension of food security is being affected by climate change, aggravating the impacts of other coexisting crises. The higher temperatures threaten crop yields directly, with the growth seasons of maize on average 9 days shorter in 2020, and the growth seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat 6 days shorter than for 1981–2010 globally (indicator 1.4). The threat to crop yields adds to the rising impact of extreme weather on supply chains, socioeconomic pressures, and the risk of infectious disease transmission, undermining food availability, access, stability, and utilisation. New analysis suggests that extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than annually in 1981–2010, in 103 countries analysed (indicator 1.4). The increasingly extreme weather worsens the stability of global food systems, acting in synergy with other concurrent crises to reverse progress towards hunger eradication. Indeed, the prevalence of undernourishment increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and up to 161 million more people faced hunger during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than in 2019. This situation is now worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy and cost-of-living crises, with impacts on international agricultural production and supply chains threatening to result in 13 million additional people facing undernutrition in 2022.

A debilitated first line of defence

With the worsening health impacts of climate change compounding other coexisting crises, populations worldwide increasingly rely on health systems as their first line of defence. However, just as the need for healthcare rises, health systems worldwide are debilitated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy and cost-of-living crises. Urgent action is therefore needed to strengthen health-system resilience and to prevent a rapidly escalating loss of lives and to prevent suffering in a changing climate. However, only 48 (51%) of 95 countries reported having assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and, even after the profound impacts of COVID-19, only 60 (63%) countries reported a high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4).

The scarcity of proactive adaptation is shown in the response to extreme heat. Despite the local cooling and overall health benefits of urban greenspaces, only 277 (27%) of 1038 global urban centres were at least moderately green in 2021 (indicator 2.2.3), and the number of households with air conditioning increased by 66% from 2000 to 2020, a maladaptive response that worsens the energy crisis and further increases urban heat, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions.

As converging crises further threaten the world’s life-supporting systems, rapid, decisive, and coherent intersectoral action is essential to protect human health from the hazards of the rapidly changing climate.

Health at the mercy of fossil fuels

The year 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, in which countries agreed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change and its deleterious effects on human health and welfare. However, little meaningful action has since followed. The carbon intensity of the global energy system has decreased by less than 1% since the UNFCCC was established, and global electricity generation is still dominated by fossil fuels, with renewable energy contributing to only 8·2% of the global total (indicator 3.1). Simultaneously, the total energy demand has risen by 59%, increasing energy-related emissions to a historical high in 2021. Current policies put the world on track to a catastrophic 2·7°C increase by the end of the century. Even with the commitments that countries set in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) updated up until November 2021, global emissions could be 13·7% above 2010 levels by 2030—far from the 43% decrease from current levels required to meet Paris Agreement goals and keep temperatures within the limits of adaptation.

Fossil fuel dependence is not only undermining global health through increased climate change impacts, but also affects human health and wellbeing directly, through volatile and unpredictable fossil fuel markets, frail supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts. As a result, millions of people do not have access to the energy needed to keep their homes at healthy temperatures, preserve food and medication, and meet the seventh Sustainable Development Goal (to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all). Without sufficient support, access to clean energy has been particularly slow in low HDI countries, and only 1·4% of their electricity came from modern renewables (mostly wind and solar power) in 2020 (indicator 3.1). An estimated 59% of health-care facilities in low and middle-income countries still do not have access to the reliable electricity needed to provide basic care. Meanwhile, biomass accounts for as much as 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, mostly from traditional sources—a proportion that increases to 96% in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). The associated burden of disease is substantial, with the air in people’s homes exceeding WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020 by 30-fold on average in the 62 countries assessed (indicator 3.2). After 6 years of improvement, the number of people without access to electricity increased in 2020 as a result of the socioeconomic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current energy and cost-of-living crises now threaten to reverse progress toward affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants of health.

Simultaneously, oil and gas companies are registering record profits, while their production strategies continue to undermine people’s lives and wellbeing. An analysis of the production strategies of 15 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, as of February 2022, revealed they exceed their share of emissions consistent with 1·5°C of global heating (indicator 4.2.6) by 37% in 2030 and 103% in 2040, continuing to undermine efforts to deliver a low carbon, healthy, liveable future. Aggravating this situation even further, governments continue to incentivise fossil fuel production and consumption: 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion in 2019, allocating amounts often comparable with or even exceeding their total health budgets (indicator 4.2.4). Simultaneously, wealthier countries failed to meet their commitment of mobilising the considerably lower sum of $100 billion annually by 2020 as agreed at the 2009 Copenhagen Accord to support climate action in “developing countries”, and climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1). The impacts of climate change on global economies, together with the recession triggered by COVID-19 and worsened by geopolitical instability, could paradoxically further reduce the willingness of countries to allocate the funds needed to enable a just climate transition.

A health-centred response for a thriving future

The world is at a critical juncture. With countries facing concurrent crises, the implementation of long-term emissions-reduction policies risks being deflected or defeated by challenges wrongly perceived as more immediate. Addressing each of the concurrent crises in isolation risks alleviating one, while worsening another. Such a situation is emerging from the response to COVID-19, which has so far has not delivered the green recovery that the health community proposed, and, on the contrary, is aggravating climate change-related health risks. Less than one third of $3·11 trillion allocated to COVID-19 economic recovery is likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution, with the net effect likely to increase emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic affected climate action at the city level, and 239 (30%) of 798 cities reported that COVID-19 reduced financing available for climate action (indicator 2.1.3).

As countries search for alternatives to Russian oil and gas, many continue to favour the burning of fossil fuels, with some even turning back to coal. Shifts in global energy supplies threaten to increase fossil fuel production. Even if implemented as a temporary transition, these responses could reverse progress on air quality improvement, irreversibly push the world off track from meeting the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement, and guarantee a future of accelerated climate change that threatens human survival.

On the contrary, in this pivotal moment, a health-centred response to the current crises would still provide the opportunity for a low-carbon, resilient future, which not only avoids the health harms of accelerated climate change, but also delivers improved health and wellbeing through the associated co-benefits of climate action. Such response would see countries promptly shifting away from fossil fuels, reducing their dependence on fragile international oil and gas markets, and accelerating a just transition to clean energy sources. A health-centred response would reduce the likelihood of the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while improving energy security, creating an opportunity for economic recovery, and offering immediate health benefits. Improvements in air quality would help to prevent the 1·2 million deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 in 2020 alone (indicator 3.3), and a health-centred energy transition would enhance low-carbon travel and increase urban green spaces, promoting physical activity, and improving physical and mental health. In the food sector, an accelerated transition to balanced and more plant-based diets would not only help reduce the 55% of agricultural sector emissions coming from red meat and milk production (indicator 3.5.1), but also prevent up to 11·5 million diet-related deaths annually (indicator 3.5.2), and substantially reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases. These health-focused shifts would reduce the burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, reducing the strain on overwhelmed health-care providers. Importantly, accelerating climate change adaptation would lead to more robust health systems, minimising the negative impacts of future infectious disease outbreaks and geopolitical conflicts, and restoring the first line of defence of global populations.

Emerging glimmers of hope

Despite decades of insufficient action, emerging, albeit few, signs of change provide some hope that a health-centred response might be starting to emerge. Individual engagement with the health dimensions of climate change, essential to drive and enable an accelerated response, increased from 2020 to 2021 (indicator 5.2), and coverage of health and climate change in the media reached a new record high in 2021, with a 27% increase from 2020 (indicator 5.1). This engagement is also reflected by country leaders, with a record 60% of 194 countries focusing their attention on the links between climate change and health in the 2021 UN General Debate, and with 86% of national updated or new NDCs making references to health (indicator 5.4). At the city level, local authorities are progressively identifying risks of climate change on the health of their populations (indicator 2.1.3), a first step to delivering a tailored response that strengthens local health systems. Although the health sector is responsible for 5·2% of all global emissions (indicator 3.6), it has shown impressive climate leadership, and 60 countries had committed to transitioning to climate-resilient and/or low-carbon or net-zero carbon health systems as part of the COP26 Health Programme, as of July, 2022.

Signs of change are also emerging in the energy sector. Although total clean energy generation remains grossly insufficient, record high levels were reached in 2020 (indicator 3.1). Zero-carbon sources accounted for 80% of investment in electricity generation in 2021 (indicator 4.2.1), and renewable energies have reached cost parity with fossil fuel energies. As some of the highest emitting countries attempt to cut their dependence on oil and gas in response to the war in Ukraine and soaring energy prices, many are focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes for a health-centred response. However, increased awareness and commitments should be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

A call to action

After 30 years of UNFCCC negotiations, the Lancet Countdown indicators show that countries and companies continue to make choices that threaten the health and survival of people in every part of the world. As countries devise ways to recover from the coexisting crises, the evidence is unequivocal. At this critical juncture, an immediate, health-centred response can still secure a future in which world populations can not only survive, but thrive.

More articles on Climate Change and Health and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderTropical Stratospheric Ozone Loss and Rocket Debris

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We might have another problem.
A whole buncha people, Elon Musk included, are launching thousands of satellites designed to fall into atmosphere at end of life (decade or less) and burn up, not to speak of rocket exhaust… except the products of that burning are all kindsa metal and other oxides whose chemical effects on the stratosphere is not at all well understood.

We are throwing all kindsa crap into the upper atmosphere, a system we do not fully understand. We are throwing $hit over our heads.
Now over the last few days I see reports of tropical ozone loss and elsewhere.
Something tells me this is not a good idea.

Oh, another thing, the reason i brought up disturbances in tropic stratosphere is that top of atmosphere is higher in the tropics
(higher temp and pressure) so satellites hit that part first when they are deorbiting at end of life into higher drag bits of the
atmosphere.

— Sidd

Observation of large and all-season ozone
losses over the tropics

“The whole-year large tropical O3 hole could cause a great global concern as it can lead to increases in ground-level ultraviolet radiation and affect 50% of the Earth’s surface area, which is home to approximately 50% of the world’s population. Moreover, the presence of the tropical and polar O3 holes is equivalent to the formation of three “temperature holes” observed in the stratosphere. These findings will have significances in understanding planetary physics, ozone depletion, climate change, and human health.”

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Code Red for Humanity

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The UN’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control) release their latest report that has been compiled and peer-reviewed over the last 8 years.

U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres described the report as “a code red for humanity.”

“The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk,” said Mr. Guterres.

Some of the changes already set in motion will be “irreversible” for centuries to come.

A press release from the IPCC states:

The report provides new estimates of the chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C in the next decades, and finds that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.

The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming. This assessment is based on improved observational datasets to assess historical warming, as well progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

“This report is a reality check,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte. “We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare.”

Every region facing increasing changes

Many characteristics of climate change directly depend on the level of global warming, but what people experience is often very different to the global average. For example, warming over land is larger than the global average, and it is more than twice as high in the Arctic.

“Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with additional warming,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Panmao Zhai.

The report projects that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows.

But it is not just about temperature. Climate change is bringing multiple different changes in different regions – which will all increase with further warming. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snow and ice, coastal areas and oceans. For example:

* Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.
* Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.
* Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.
* Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
* Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
* For cities, some aspects of climate change may be amplified, including heat (since urban areas are usually warmer than their surroundings), flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities.

For the first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation, and other decision-making, and a new framework that helps translate physical changes in the climate – heat, cold, rain, drought, snow, wind, coastal flooding and more – into what they mean for society and ecosystems.

This regional information can be explored in detail in the newly developed Interactive Atlas interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch as well as regional fact sheets, the technical summary, and underlying report.

Human influence on the past and future climate

“It has been clear for decades that the Earth’s climate is changing, and the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed,” said Masson-Delmotte. Yet the new report also reflects major advances in the science of attribution – understanding the role of climate change in intensifying specific weather and climate events such as extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall events.

The report also shows that human actions still have the potential to determine the future course of climate. The evidence is clear that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main driver of climate change, even as other greenhouse gases and air pollutants also affect the climate.

“Stabilizing the climate will require strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate,” said Zhai.

More on The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderPollen and Increased SARS-CoV-2 Infection Rates

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The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America published the study Higher airborne pollen concentrations correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, as evidenced from 31 countries across the globe.

The research showed that airborne pollen on average accounts for 44% of the variation in infection rates in addition to humidity and air temperature.

Pollen exposure weakens the immunity by diminishing the antiviral interferon response.

“Our large-scale retrospective data analysis based on 80 individual time series from 130 regions in 31 countries in all inhabited continents across the globe (8,019 data points) enabled us to reveal a robust and significant positive correlation between SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and airborne pollen concentrations, which was halved under lockdown.”

COVID-19 and Air Pollution

COVID-19 Index

bookmark_borderCOVID-19 and Air Pollution

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COVID-19
by Daniel Brouse
March 25, 2020
Email: help@membrane.com

Abstract: Many compromised respiratory and immune systems are a result of air pollution. COVID-19 is having a larger impact on the population due to underlying compromised respiratory and immune systems caused by air pollution.

Hypothesis:
Large portions of the world are susceptible to particulate and ozone pollution. In this study, the focus is on particulate pollution. Though tropospheric ozone pollution is thought to be more detrimental to the respiratory and immune systems, current technology makes it too difficult to measure. Tropospheric ozone and particulate pollution are common in urban and industrial areas. Ozone is created when the ultraviolet light, temperature, and chemicals in the air create a chemical reaction. The result is millions of micro-explosions in the lungs. Hot summer days are optimal for ozone creation. Particulate pollution is a result of fine particles suspended in the atmosphere. Particulate pollution is easier to be aware of because you can see it as haze or smog in the air. Exposure to ozone and particulate pollution results in permanent lung damage and chronic immune system disorders. Exercising in the out-of-doors during days with high pollution amplifies the damage to the respiratory and immune systems. The larger the pollution intake, the more severe the damage.

Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality
The Harvard study Fine particulate matter and COVID-19 mortality in the United States found, “A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.” [1]

A study from Oxford found, “Our results suggest that air pollution is an important cofactor increasing the risk of mortality from COVID-19. This provides extra motivation for combining ambitious policies to reduce air pollution with measures to control the transmission of COVID-19.” [2]

“The study estimated that about 15% of deaths worldwide from COVID-19 could be attributed to long-term exposure to air pollution. In Europe the proportion was about 19%, in North America it was 17%, and in East Asia about 27%,” reports the European Society of Cardiology. [3]

Pollen and Increased Risk of Infection
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America published the study Higher airborne pollen concentrations correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, as evidenced from 31 countries across the globe.

The research showed that airborne pollen on average accounts for 44% of the variation in infection rates in addition to humidity and air temperature. Pollen exposure weakens the immunity by diminishing the antiviral interferon response.

Update: August 2021
Excess of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to fine particulate matter exposure during the 2020 wildfires in the United States

“The presence of wildfire smoke last year during the pandemic may have been responsible for at least 19,000 additional cases of COVID-19 on the West Coast, and 700 subsequent deaths.”

“The year 2020 brought unimaginable challenges in public health, with the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic and wildfires across the western United States. Wildfires produce high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Recent studies reported that short-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We acquired and linked publicly available daily data on PM2.5, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and other confounders for 92 western U.S. counties that were affected by the 2020 wildfires. We estimated the association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 during the wildfires and the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We adjusted for several time-varying confounding factors (e.g., weather, seasonality, long-term trends, mobility, and population size). We found strong evidence that wildfires amplified the effect of short-term exposure to PM2.5 on COVID-19 cases and deaths, although with substantial heterogeneity across counties.”

Negative Feedback Loops
Long term exposure to air pollution causes COVID co-morbidities including respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and a compromised immune system. Contracting COVID exacerbates the preexisting co-morbidities. Post-COVID exposure to air pollution further compromises the co-morbidities. The negative feedback loop repeats until failure.

Increased Risks Due to Reinfection
The study Acute and postacute sequelae associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was published in the Journal Nature.

* The evidence shows that reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and damage to multiple organ systems
* COVID exacerbates underlying conditions including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders

First infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is associated with increased risk of acute and postacute death and sequelae in various organ systems. Compared to no reinfection, reinfection contributed additional risks of death, hospitalization, and sequelae including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders. The risks were evident regardless of vaccination status. The risks were most pronounced in the acute phase but persisted in the postacute phase at 6 months. Compared to noninfected controls, cumulative risks and burdens of repeat infection increased according to the number of infections. Limitations included a cohort of mostly white males. The evidence shows that reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and sequelae in multiple organ systems in the acute and postacute phase. Reducing overall burden of death and disease due to SARS-CoV-2 will require strategies for reinfection prevention.

Minimize Your Risk
1) Minimize your exposure to air pollution by checking the air quality conditions in your location. (Get air quality data where you live.)
2) People at high risk of COVID mortality due to co-morbidities, such as, aged, obese and type2 diabetics, combined with long term exposure to air pollution should take preventative measures. A deficiency of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) may be the primary factor related to the SARS-Cov-2 disease spectrum and the risk for mortality, as subclinical nutritional deficiencies may be unmasked by any significant increase in oxidative stress. [4]

The Miller/Wentzel/Richards prophylactic protocol of Niacin B3, Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Quercetin, Zinc, and Selenium can minimize the severity and duration of COVID symptoms and may prevent death.

1. Fine particulate matter and COVID-19 mortality in the United States Harford
2. Regional and global contributions of air pollution to risk of death from COVID-19 Oxford
3. Study estimates exposure to air pollution increases COVID-19 deaths by 15% worldwide European Society of Cardiology
4. COVID-19: NAD+ deficiency may predispose the aged, obese and type2 diabetics to mortality through its effect on SIRT1 activity Miller, Wentzel, Richards

Additional References:
Pollen and Increased SARS-CoV-2 Infection Rates
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/…/pm_and_covid_mortality.pdf
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid-pm/files/pm_and_covid_mortality_supp.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054502v1

CLIMATE RELATED UPDATES

Climate-Driven Health Collapse: The Compounding Feedback Loops of Disease, Pollution, and Extreme Weather Brouse (2025)

COVID-19 Index

bookmark_borderThe Hemp Myth, Carbon Sinks and the Environment

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

Q: Is hemp a good solution for carbon sequestration (carbon sinks) and/or beneficial to the environment?

A: No, not really. In general, hemp only acts as a carbon sink while it is growing and left unharvested. The harvesting usually negates any net-negative carbon sink. (ie more CO2 is released in the harvesting than is being sequestered.) In addition, production of oil, pulp, fibers, or other products usually results in a large carbon footprint. Hemp is not known to be more efficient in the production of anything. It’s also important to note, plant based oils and alcohols result in more low level ozone than petroleum, not to mention, any carbon that is combusted is converted to CO2. Ozone is killing many trees and humans (Death By Ozone, 2016).

Q: Remember the awful hole in the ozone layer in the 80-90’s? Don’t we want more ozone?

A: No. Ozone is a volatile gas and changes form rapidly. In general, there are 2 types of ozone — Tropospheric and Stratospheric. Tropospheric is low level ozone and deadly to life on earth. Stratospheric is in the upper level atmosphere (stratosphere) that protects life on earth (The Ozone Know Zone, 2005).

Q: Won’t the carbon be sequestered in the fiber and stay there until it rots (and hemp is resistant to rotting)?

A: Saying the carbon will stay in the fiber is partially correct… it will also stay in the leaves and the roots. The leaves and roots will decay faster. But, as for the fibers, to harvest them takes more carbon than the carbon that is sequestered. In all cases of plants as carbon sinks, it does nothing to solve the problem of the CO2 in the atmosphere that was released by fossil fuels. Plants are just a temporary store for their own carbon. Trees absorb and release about the same amount of carbon over a 100-year cycle (with many shorter time cycles for the leaves — about 1-2 years.) Comparatively, hemp’s cycle is only a few years. Another important factor in calculating the length of time of a carbon sink with plants is that plants also breath: “Plants release up to 30 per cent more CO2 than previously thought.” During daylight and night there is the process of plant respiration in which plants breath in O2 and breath out CO2. This is different than during daylight hours when a separate process called photosynthesis takes in carbon dioxide and releases oxygen. Plants release up to 30 per cent more CO2 than previously thought, 2017)

Q: Would it is better to have tarmac than grow hemp? Even though hemp can replace petroleum-based plastic with biodegradable products?

A: No, not at all. We should plant as many plants with the longest sink-cycle (trees). Most importantly we should stop releasing CO2 that has been sequestered for millions of years. Then, we should figure how to re-sequester CO2 for millions of years.

Hemp has far more benefits and significantly less costs than petroleum products; however, agriculture in general has many costs (in fact, the invention of flooded rice paddy agriculture thousands of years ago in China was one of the first major human causes of climate change.” The origins of human-influenced climate change may be traced back 5,000 years“, 2004) Monoculture of hemp, corn, and other bio-fuels release all the CO2, create more ozone and require vast areas of land. Having a single crop produced in large scale has a devastating effect on biodiversity. Bio-plastics and other petroleum substitutes create the same sort of environmental problems. They don’t instantly bio-degrade. They initially breakdown into micro-bio-plastics.

The little live creatures on this planet have evolved for a couple billion years to eat what plants make — like carbohydrates. So, they eat carbohydrates much faster than they can eat hydrocarbons from fossil fuels. (But they are working on it, we already see evolution in that direction.)

Unfortunately, there are no good carbon sinks known to Man (other than petroleum / hydrocarbons.) The best solution is to stop human Green House Gas emissions. A study published in the Journal Nature, The contribution of insects to global forest deadwood decomposition found, “Worldwide, dead and decaying wood releases roughly 10.9 gigatons of carbon every year. This is roughly 115% of annual fossil fuel emissions.”

“We found both the rate of decomposition and the contribution of insects are highly dependent on the climate, and will increase as temperatures rise,” study co-author David Lindenmayer said.

At present, bio derived packaging is to be preferred to fossil derived packaging since the former made out of carbohydrate will break down faster than fossil derived hydrocarbon. More important, the bio derived packaging is only returning to the atmosphere recently obtained CO2, since the plants from where the packaging came would decay anyway. But, if fossil plastic decays, that’s dumping into the atmosphere fossil C which was buried hundreds of millions of years ago. Maybe it’s a good thing the little bugs haven’t yet found a widespread, efficient way to eat fossil plastic.

Relative to petroleum, plants are much more beneficial. Hydrocarbons have a much greater cost to the environment. Relative to trees, hemp is far more costly; however, the real solution is to cut down on packaging and consumption.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment