bookmark_borderClimate Change: Code Red for Humanity

The UN’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control) release their latest report that has been compiled and peer-reviewed over the last 8 years.

U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres described the report as “a code red for humanity.”

“The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk,” said Mr. Guterres.

Some of the changes already set in motion will be “irreversible” for centuries to come.

A press release from the IPCC states:

The report provides new estimates of the chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C in the next decades, and finds that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.

The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming. This assessment is based on improved observational datasets to assess historical warming, as well progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

“This report is a reality check,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte. “We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare.”

Every region facing increasing changes

Many characteristics of climate change directly depend on the level of global warming, but what people experience is often very different to the global average. For example, warming over land is larger than the global average, and it is more than twice as high in the Arctic.

“Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with additional warming,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Panmao Zhai.

The report projects that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows.

But it is not just about temperature. Climate change is bringing multiple different changes in different regions – which will all increase with further warming. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snow and ice, coastal areas and oceans. For example:

* Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.
* Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.
* Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.
* Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
* Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
* For cities, some aspects of climate change may be amplified, including heat (since urban areas are usually warmer than their surroundings), flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities.

For the first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation, and other decision-making, and a new framework that helps translate physical changes in the climate – heat, cold, rain, drought, snow, wind, coastal flooding and more – into what they mean for society and ecosystems.

This regional information can be explored in detail in the newly developed Interactive Atlas interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch as well as regional fact sheets, the technical summary, and underlying report.

Human influence on the past and future climate

“It has been clear for decades that the Earth’s climate is changing, and the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed,” said Masson-Delmotte. Yet the new report also reflects major advances in the science of attribution – understanding the role of climate change in intensifying specific weather and climate events such as extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall events.

The report also shows that human actions still have the potential to determine the future course of climate. The evidence is clear that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main driver of climate change, even as other greenhouse gases and air pollutants also affect the climate.

“Stabilizing the climate will require strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate,” said Zhai.

More on The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change Time Machine

NASA has developed a web application that allows you to view the sea ice declining, sea level, carbon emissions and average temperature rising over time: Climate Time Machine

 

bookmark_borderWhat Is Global Warming

by the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration

What is Global Warming?

sun.jpg, photo courtesy of NOAA Photo Library
The term Global Warming refers, without any implications for the cause or magnitude, to the observation that the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface is warming. This warming is one of many kinds of climate change that the Earth has gone through in the past and will continue to go through in the future.

Why is Global Warming important?

Temperature increases will have significant impacts on human activities, including: where we can live, what food we can grow, how and where we can grow food, and where organisms we consider pests can thrive. To be prepared for the effects of these potential impacts we need to know how much the Earth is warming, how long the Earth has been warming, and what has caused the warming. Answers to these questions provide us with a better basis for making decisions related to issues such as water resources and agricultural planning.

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

Greenhouse effect image Our planet absorbs radiant energy from the sun and emits some of that energy back to space. The term greenhouse effect describes how water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other “greenhouse” gases in the atmosphere alter the return of energy to space, and in turn, change the temperature at the Earth’s surface. These greenhouse gases absorb some of the energy that is emitted from the Earth’s surface, preventing this energy from being lost to space. As a result, the lower atmosphere warms and sends some of this energy back to the Earth’s surface. When the energy is “recycled” in this way, the Earth’s surface warms.

Life on Earth would be very different without the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect keeps the long term annual average temperature of the Earth’s surface approximately 32°C (or about 58°F) higher than it would be otherwise.

How is the Greenhouse Effect related to Global Warming?

Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the Earth’s atmosphere, but are also being added by human activities. This happens primarily through the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, which releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Over the past century, atmospheric carbon dioxide (as measured from ice cores) has increased due to human activities from 300 to 380 parts per million (ppm), and the average Earth temperature has increased approximately 0.7°C (or about 1.3°F).

Co2 image
Given what we know about the ability of greenhouse gases to warm the Earth’s surface, it is reasonable to expect that as concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rise above natural levels, the Earth’s surface will become increasingly warm. Many scientists have now concluded that global warming can be explained by a human-caused enhancement of the greenhouse effect.

It is important to remember both that the greenhouse effect occurs naturally, and that it has been intensified by humankind’s input of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Are Ozone Holes related to Global Warming or the Greenhouse Effect?

ozone.gif, photo courtesy of NASA The formation of ozone holes is related to these scientific issues, yet is still distinct.
Ozone plays a very important, natural role in the upper atmosphere (called the stratosphere), where 90% of it exists. Stratospheric ozone acts as a shield against harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun. This ozone can be destroyed by human-produced chemical compounds called chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs. When these CFCs are combined with extremely cold stratospheric temperatures over the poles, solar radiation, and particular patterns of atmospheric circulation, chemical reactions occur that cause “Ozone Holes” over Antarctica (pictured above) and the Arctic.

The formation of ozone holes is related to global warming and the greenhouse effect in two ways. First, CFCs are greenhouse gases. Thus, the release of these compounds into the atmosphere will have two separate effects: to destroy ozone and to add to the greenhouse effect. Second, if stratospheric temperatures or patterns of atmospheric circulation change as part of global warming, this will affect the chemical reactions that destroy ozone and cause the ozone holes to either grow or shrink.

daily ozone image
For daily updated images of the ozone, please visit NOAA’s Stratosphere: SBUV-2 Total Ozone Page with images of the ozone from the NOAA-14 Satellite by clicking here or on image at left.

bookmark_borderSevere Weather The New Normal

Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

A study mandated by congress highlights the cost of global warming to United States citizens. One of the most significant costs is the impact of more severe weather events.

A LETTER TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present.  This report of the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee  concludes that the evidence for a changing climate has strengthened considerably since the last  National Climate Assessment report, written in 2009. Many more impacts of human-caused  climate change have now been observed. Corn producers in Iowa, oyster growers in Washington  State, and maple syrup producers in Vermont have observed changes in their local climate that  are outside of their experience. So, too, have coastal planners from Florida to Maine, water  managers in the arid Southwest and parts of the Southeast, and Native Americans on tribal lands  across the nation.

Americans are noticing changes all around them. Summers are longer and hotter, and periods of  extreme heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally  shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours, though in many regions there are longer dry spells in between.

Other changes are even more dramatic. Residents of some coastal cities see their streets flood  more regularly during storms and high tides. Inland cities near large rivers also experience more  flooding, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. Hotter and drier weather and earlier snow melt mean that wildfires in the West start earlier in the year, last later into the fall, threaten more homes, cause more evacuations, and burn more acreage. In Alaska, the summer sea ice that once protected the coasts has receded, and fall storms now cause more erosion and damage that is severe enough that some communities are already facing relocation.

Scientists studying climate change confirm that these observations are consistent with Earth’s  climatic trends. Long-term, independent records from weather stations, satellites, ocean buoys, tide gauges, and many other data sources all confirm the fact that our nation, like the rest of the world, is warming, precipitation patterns are changing, sea level is rising, and some types of  extreme weather events are increasing. These and other observed climatic changes are having 26 wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and most sectors of our economy. Some of these changes can be beneficial, such as longer growing seasons in many regions and a longer shipping season on the Great Lakes. But many more have already proven to be detrimental, largely because society and its infrastructure were designed for the climate of the past, not for the rapidly changing climate of the present or the future.

This National Climate Assessment collects, integrates, and assesses observations and research  from around the country, helping to show what is actually happening and what it means for peoples’ lives, livelihoods, and future. This report includes analyses of impacts on seven selected sectors: human health, water, energy, transportation, agriculture, forests, and ecosystems and biodiversity. This report additionally focuses on the interactions among several sectors at the  national level. It also assesses key impacts on the regions of the U.S.: Northeast, Southeast and Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska and the Arctic, Hawaii and the Pacific Islands; as well as coastal areas, oceans, and marine resources. Finally, this report is the  first to explicitly assess the current state of adaptation, mitigation, and decision support activities.

STUDY

1. Executive Summary

2. Our Changing Climate

Introduction to Sectors

3. Water Resources

4. Energy Supply and Use

5. Transportation

6. Agriculture

7. Forestry

8. Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services

9. Human Health

10. Water, Energy, and Land Use

11. Urban Systems, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability

12. Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources

13. Land Use and Land Cover Change

14. Rural Communities

15. Interactions of Climate Change and Biogeochemical Cycles

Introduction to Regions

16. Northeast

17. Southeast and Caribbean

18. Midwest

19. Great Plains

20. Southwest*

21. Northwest

22. Alaska and the Arctic

23. Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

24. Oceans and Marine Resources

25. Coastal Zone Development and Ecosystems

Introduction to Response Strategies

26. Decision Support: Supporting Policy, Planning, and Resource Management Decisions in a Climate Change Context

27. Mitigation

28. Adaptation

29. Research Agenda for Climate Change Science

30. The NCA Long-Term Process: Vision and Future Development

Appendix I: NCA Climate Science – Addressing Commonly Asked Questions from A to Z

Appendix II: The Science of Climate Change

bookmark_borderWarmest Year on Record

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

According to NOAA scientists, the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 55.3°F, which was 3.2°F above the 20th century average and 1.0°F above the previous record from 1998. The year consisted of the fourth warmest winter, a record warm spring, the second warmest summer, and a warmer-than-average autumn. Although the last four months of 2012 did not bring the same unusual warmth as the first 8 months of the year, the September through December temperatures were warm enough for 2012 to remain the record warmest year, by a wide margin.

The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 26.57 inches, 2.57 inches below average, and the 15th driest year on record for the nation.

The U.S. Climate Extremes Index indicated that 2012 was the second most extreme year on record for the nation. The index, which evaluates extremes in temperature and precipitation, as well as landfalling tropical cyclones, was nearly twice the average value and second only to 1998.

Additional Resources        

bookmark_borderHot. Hot. Hot.

Australia — Temperatures in Australia are reaching high heights with the current heat wave. Bush fires are burning wild. Tomorrow, the  temperature is forecast as a high of 50 degrees… 50 centigrade… that’s 122 Fahrenheit.

bookmark_borderAre Bio-fuels Worse for the Environment?

by Daniel Brouse
The Membrane Domain

Q: Are bio-fuels, ethanol, and re-cycled restaurant oils worse for the environment?
A: Yes.

The more volatile nature and ozone emissions used as a fossil fuel substitute appear to be much more harmful to the environment than fossil fuels.  Though fossil fuels need to be eliminated as soon as possible, care should be taken.

 

CALIFORNIA, USA — State officials have argued since 1999 that the volatility of ethanol, a fuel blend made from corn that evaporates easily, contributes to smog by increasing ozone levels and adding particulates to the air.

 

REFERENCES:
End The Use Of Bio-fuels

Does Ethanol Use Result in More Air Pollution? More Bad Ozone?

Dying Trees

Land and Water Degradation Lead to Food Shortages