Tag: ethanol

bookmark_borderFeedback Loops

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Feedback loops accelerate global warming.

In the 1990’s, the Membrane Domain started publishing research on human induced climate change. The research team was the first to put forth the hypothesis that global warming is an exponential phenomenon. Up to that point, the scientific community had based their forecasts on a linear event. The Membrane Domain suggested the model was more like a bathtub curve or hockey stick curve.

Since that time, the hypothesis has been proven. One of the main factors are chain reactions that are caused by the result. The chain reactions have been given the name “feedback loops”.

“Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity….” (Wikipedia)

An example of a feedback loop, it the melting of Arctic sea ice. Methane, one of the most severe greenhouse gases, is trapped under the ice. However, when global warming causes the sea ice to melt, methane is released. When methane is released it intensifies global warming, resulting in more ice melting. In turn, more methane is released causing an acceleration in global warming… and so on.

Another example was sited in a report by NASA:
Greenland’s snowy surface has been getting darker over the past two decades, absorbing more heat from the sun and increasing snow melt. The feedback loops work like this: During a warm summer with clear skies and lots of solar radiation pouring in, the surface starts to melt. As the top layers of fresh snow disappear, old impurities, like dust from erosion or soot that blew in years before, begin to appear, darkening the surface. A warm summer can remove enough snow to allow several years of impurities to concentrate at the surface as surrounding snow layers disappear. At the same time, as the snow melts and refreezes, the grains of snow get larger. This is because the meltwater acts like glue, sticking grains together when the surface refreezes. The larger grains create a less reflective surface that allows more solar radiation to be absorbed.

A third example of feedback loops can be witnessed as a result of ethanol in gasoline. Ethanol in gasoline causes an increase tropospheric ozone. Tropospheric ozone is a result of a volatile reaction that occurs from vehicle emissions, a warm temperature and ultraviolet light. Tropospheric ozone causes tree death and deforestation. The decline in trees lessens the carbon dioxide sink that trees provide resulting in more global warming. More global warming results in more days when the conditions are right for the creation of tropospheric ozone.

bookmark_borderCoastal Change: Hurricanes and Extreme Storm Hazards

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Part of the Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

One of the goals of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program is a national assessment of coastal change hazards. Hurricanes provide a powerful force that generates dangerous waves and currents capable of moving large amounts of sand, destroying buildings and infrastructure, and reshaping our nation’s coastline. Our research focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of the impacts of hurricanes and extreme storms on the sandy beaches of the United States. The overall objective is to improve the capability to predict coastal change that results from severe storms. Such a capability will support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.

Hurricane Sandy Example

As Hurricane Sandy moved northward along the U.S. Atlantic coast in October 2012, U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked to determine where and how the storm’s waves and surge might dramatically reshape the beaches and dunes that stand between the storm and coastal developments. Through a complex modeling process that uses coastal elevations, wave forecasts, and potential storm surge, they predicted coastal change hazards, such as shoreline and dune erosion, that might be expected during a Sandy landfall.

Using the latest storm information available, USGS predicted the likelihood of a range of coastal change impacts within the region affected by the storm:

  • Dune erosion was very likely for the majority of the sandy beaches along the Maryland and Delaware coasts with widespread overwash also very likely in many areas.
  • Most of the New Jersey coast was very likely to experience extensive beach and dune erosion and many areas were very likely to overwash.
  • Along the south shore of Long Island, New York, the models predicted extensive beach and dune erosion as well as intermittent overwash.

Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, made landfall on October 30, 2012, and impacted a long swath of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Many areas that had been hit by Hurricane Irene in August 2011 were again battered by strong waves and surge. The barrier islands were breached in a number of places and erosion of the beach and dunes occurred all along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This was the most destructive storm to impact this coastline since an extremely powerful nor’easter in December of 1992.

Following landfall, oblique aerial photography and lidar surveys of beach elevations were used to document the changes that occurred as a result of the storm. In addition, field measurements of the beaches and dunes were collected immediately after the storm. Comparisons of data collected before the storm show the nature, magnitude and spatial variability of the coastal response. These data will be used to further refine predictive models for storm-induced erosion.

Response Activities

Pre-landfall

Post-landfall (approx. 3-14 days)

bookmark_borderNational Snow And Ice For 2012

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State of the Climate
National Snow & Ice
Annual 2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

The 2011/12 winter season was nearly non-existent for much of the eastern half of the nation. The December 2011-February 2012 three-month period was marked by near-record warmth across the U.S.-Canadian border, the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, limiting seasonal snowfall across those regions. Many locations had near-record low snowfall totals for the winter season. Early spring brought much of the same, when the contiguous U.S. had its warmest March on record, with a monthly temperature 8.6°F above average. The lack of snowfall and snowpack for the winter and spring across the Rockies, Great Plains, and Midwest was a precursor to the large drought episode that impacted two-thirds of the nation during the summer and autumn of 2012. In contrast to the rest of the nation, the Pacific Northwest was closer to average during winter in terms of temperature and precipitation, with several winter storms bringing heavy snowfall to the high elevations. The early-spring was wetter and cooler than average for the Northwest, contributing to above-average snowfall for many locations in the region.

US Winter snow extent anomalies
Contiguous U.S. Winter Snow Cover Extent Anomalies
Data Source: Rutgers Global Snow Lab

According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, both the winter and spring seasons brought below-average snow cover to the contiguous United States. The satellite-derived snow cover extent for December 2011-February 2012 was approximately 237,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average — the third smallest winter snow cover footprint in the 46-year satellite record. This was the first winter since 2005-2006 with below-average snow cover for the country. Only the winter seasons of 1991/92 and 1980/81 had smaller snow cover extents. The March-May spring snow cover extent was 151,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average — the third smallest spring snow cover extent on record. The springs of 1968 and 2000 had smaller seasonal snow cover footprints.

Western US Snowpack 1 May 2012
Western U.S. Snowpack
April 1, 2012
Source: USDA

Winter and spring mountain snowpack provide a crucial water source across much of the western United States. The total annual water budget for agriculture and human use in the mountainous West is highly dependant on the amount of snow melt that will occur in spring and is proportional to the amount of snow on the ground. The annual snowpack typically reaches its maximum value at the end of March. According to data from the USDA, on April 1st, 2012, above-normal snowpack was observed through the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, with near-normal snowpack stretching eastward through the northern Rockies of Idaho, Montana, and northern Wyoming. To the south, below and much-below snowpack was observed for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies. Snowpack totals less than 50 percent of normal were widespread in California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. In Alaska, snowpack totals were above normal for the Southern coasts and peninsula, and below-normal across the North Slope.

Select Significant Events

A strong and powerful winter storm moved across the Southern Rockies and High Plains of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas on December 19th and 20th of 2011. Snowfall up to 15 inches was reported across the region, and strong winds in excess of 50 mph created blizzard conditions. Parts of Interstates 25 and 70 were closed, and the storm was blamed for six deaths. Dalhart, Texas, shattered its daily snowfall record, where 7.0 inches fell on the 19th, surpassing the 0.1 inch which fell on the date in 1983. The 8.2 inches that accumulated in Pueblo, Colorado during the two-day event contributed to the city having its snowiest December on record, with 18.6 inches falling throughout the month. This surpassed the previous December record of 18.2 inches, which fell in December 1913.

Satellite Image of December 19-20 Snow Cover
Satellite Image of Pacific Northwest Snowcover
Source: NASA

A large and powerful winter storm, accompanied by a surge of moisture from the tropics often referred to as an atmospheric river or the ‘Pineapple Express’, impacted the western U.S. January 18th–23rd. The worst impacts were felt across the Pacific Northwest, where several feet of snow accumulated and strong winds were observed, causing icy roads, downed power lines, and avalanches. A state of emergency was declared for much of Oregon and Washington, where over a quarter-million households lost electricity. Impressive wind, snow, and rain measurements were made during the event Mount Hood, Oregon received over 50 inches of snow, winds approaching 90 mph were measured at Summer Lake, Oregon, and over 15 inches of rain fell at Swiss Home, Oregon. The Mary’s River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record. Seven inches of snow fell in Seattle, which averages only 8 inches of snow a year. To the south, across the high terrain of California and Nevada, the precipitation was a welcome sight, where very dry conditions had previously dominated during the 2011-2012 winter season. Nevada’s Carson River Basin had snowpack only 8 percent of normal before the storm (compared to 224 percent at the same point in January 2011, one year prior).

A record-breaking snow storm impacted eastern Colorado and parts of Nebraska February 2nd–4th. The slow moving storm dropped 15.9 inches of snow in Denver, a new February snow storm record, surpassing the previous record of 14.1 inches set in February 1912. The 22.7 inches that fell in Boulder was also a February record. Snow accumulations greater than three feet were widespread across the region’s highest terrain. Storms of this magnitude are more common in the region during the early spring months of March and April. As the storm moved off to the east it dropped upwards of a foot of snow across much of Nebraska. The 11.1 inches that accumulated in Lincoln, Nebraska was the fourth largest 24-hour snowfall on record for the city.

Snow totals Feb 29 2012
Satellite Image of CO and NE Snow Cover
Source: NWS

A potent storm system on February 28th and 29th brought heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Snowfall totals exceeding one foot fell in a string of states from South Dakota to Maine. The heaviest snow fell across Minnesota and Wisconsin, where snow totals approached two feet, accompanied by winds gusting to 50 mph, creating blizzard conditions for several hours. The snow from this storm was one of the few snow events this season across many of the regions affected. Much of the Northern Plains, Great Lakes

Pacific NW March 22 snowfall
22 March Pacific Northwest Snowfall
Source: National Snow Analysis

During March, as much of the eastern U.S. was basking in record breaking warmth, an upper-level trough brought cooler-than-average conditions and late-season precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. On March 22nd, a large Pacific extra-tropical cyclone slammed into the West Coast, dumping upwards of three feet of snow across the high elevations of the Washington and Oregon Cascade Mountains. The 0.5 inch of snow that fell at the Portland, Oregon airport was the largest snowfall accumulation this late in the season. Salem and Eugene, Oregon both set new March snow storm records with 2.5 and 7.5 inches of snow, respectively. This storm was part of a larger and persistent weather pattern which brought much-above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures to the region during March. The 7.89 inches of precipitation that accumulated in Portland was a new monthly record.

April 24th Northeast Snow Depth
24 April Northeast Snow Depth
Source: NOAA NNVL

A late-season storm dropped over a foot of snow from West Virginia to Upstate New York, along the higher elevations of central and northern Appalachian Mountains, on April 23rd and 24th. To the east, in the lower elevations, heavy rain fell across the large cities of the Northeast. This type of coastal storm, called a Nor’easter, was only the second of the season to impact the eastern seaboard, with the other being very early in the season in October. The snow storm was also on the heels of the warmest March on record for many locations across the region, where most trees already had begun to leaf. The snow falling on trees with leaves caused additional headaches by bringing down limbs and cutting power to at least 75,000 residents. The storm also resulted in at least 48 daily snowfall records. Although the storm did have some negative impacts, it provided drought-relieving precipitation for many locations in the Northeast.

Sandy Snowfall Totals
Sandy remnant-low snowfall totals

The remnant low pressure system from Hurricane Sandy dropped copious amounts of snow across the Southern and Central Appalachians as it moved westward after making landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey on October 29th. Over a foot of snow was reported in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October monthly snowfall records. Widespread, heavy snow of this magnitude during October has never been observed across this region. The largest snow totals occurred along the highest elevations of the Appalachians, with Mount Leconte, Tennessee receiving 33 inches of snow and Terra Alta, West Virginia measuring 36 inches. Very strong winds combined with the snow to create blizzard conditions for up to two days in some locations. The largest impacts of the storm were the massive power outages due to downed trees and power lines and building collapses because of the heavy, wet nature of the snow. Flooding was also a concern as warm temperatures returned quickly after the storm causing rapid melt and runoff.

Citing This Report

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: National Snow & Ice for Annual 2012

bookmark_borderGlobal Warming And Climate Volatility

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As part of the Human Induced Climate Change Experiment, we have been predicting the effects of global warming on climate volatility. Indeed, we have seen a marked severity in volatile weather systems.

2012 went down as the hottest year in recorded history. Though we are only several days into January, the year is already setting records. There has been snow in the deserts of China, record heat and wildfires in Australia… while record cold temperatures have killed hundreds in India.

bookmark_borderNorthern Hemisphere Snow Cover is Retreating

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PHILADELPHIA, PA — What is up with the weather? Yes, we have seen some freaky storms over the past few years. Global warming is expected to cause volatile weather patterns. Indeed, that is what we have been experiencing; however, overall the Northern Hemisphere is showing a steady decline in snowfall.

NOAA:

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent
Average of monthly snow cover extent anomalies over Northern Hemisphere lands (including Greenland) since Nov 1966. Right: Seasonal snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere lands since winter 1966-67. Calculated from NOAA snow maps. From BAMS State of the Climate in 2009 report.

Northern Hemisphere average annual snow cover has declined in recent decades. This pattern is consistent with warmer global temperatures. Some of the largest declines have been observed in the spring and summer months.

bookmark_borderAre Bio-fuels Worse for the Environment?

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by Daniel Brouse
The Membrane Domain

Q: Are bio-fuels, ethanol, and re-cycled restaurant oils worse for the environment?
A: Yes.

The more volatile nature and ozone emissions used as a fossil fuel substitute appear to be much more harmful to the environment than fossil fuels.  Though fossil fuels need to be eliminated as soon as possible, care should be taken.

 

CALIFORNIA, USA — State officials have argued since 1999 that the volatility of ethanol, a fuel blend made from corn that evaporates easily, contributes to smog by increasing ozone levels and adding particulates to the air.

 

REFERENCES:
End The Use Of Bio-fuels

Does Ethanol Use Result in More Air Pollution? More Bad Ozone?

Dying Trees

Land and Water Degradation Lead to Food Shortages

bookmark_borderIncreased Ethanol In Gasoline

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There are concerns about using ethanol in gasoline. It is possible that ethanol is actually worse for the environment and increasing the rate of global warming; however, the EPA is allowing E15.

E15 (a blend of gasoline and ethanol)

In response to a request by Growth Energy under section 211(f)(4) of the Clean Air Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has partially granted a waiver to allow fuel and fuel additive manufacturers to introduce into commerce gasoline that contains greater than 10 volume percent (vol%) ethanol and up to 15 vol% ethanol (E15) for use in model year (MY) 2001 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, subject to several conditions. On October 13, 2010, EPA granted a partial waiver for E15 for use in MY2007 and newer light-duty vehicles (i.e., cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles). On January 21, 2011, EPA granted a partial waiver for E15 for use in MY2001-2006 light-duty motor vehicles. These decisions were based on test results provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other information regarding the potential effect of E15 on vehicle emissions. Taken together, the two actions allow, but do not require, E15 to be introduced into commerce for use in MY2001 and newer light-duty motor vehicles if conditions for mitigating misfueling and ensuring fuel quality are met. EPA is in the process of completing work on regulations that would provide a more practical means of meeting the conditions.

Prior to the distribution of E15, fuel and fuel additive manufacturers are required to register the fuel with EPA. For more information on fuel registration visit the Registration and Health Effect Testing page. There are also a number of other actions including changes to various state and local laws that may also affect the distribution of E15.

What is E15?

Ethanol is an alcohol that can be mixed with gasoline to result in a cleaner-burning fuel. The most common blend of gasoline and ethanol is E10, or 10 percent of ethanol to 90 percent of gasoline. E10 was granted a waiver under Clean Air Act section 211(f)(4) by operation of law over 30 years ago. E15 is gasoline containing 15 vol% ethanol.

The primary source of ethanol is corn, but other grains or biomass sources may be used.
What is the E15 waiver?

In order to protect the emission control systems of vehicles and engines, the Clean Air Act prohibits the introduction of fuels or fuel additives that are not substantially similar to the fuels or fuel additives used in certifying vehicles and engines to emission standards. However, the Act authorizes EPA to grant a waiver of this prohibition for a fuel or fuel additive if it can be demonstrated that vehicles and engines using the otherwise prohibited fuel or fuel additive will continue to meet emission standards over their “full useful life” (100,000 or 120,000 miles, depending on the vehicle type and model year).

In March 2009, Growth Energy (a coalition of U.S. ethanol supporters) and 54 ethanol manufacturers applied for a waiver to increase the allowable amount of ethanol in gasoline from E10 to E15. The waiver application included data on the impact of E15 on vehicle emissions, fuel system materials, and driveability. Additional data were developed by DOE, which in 2008 began testing for potential impacts of various ethanol-gasoline blends on emissions of MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles. This testing followed enactment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which calls for significantly increasing the amount of biofuels, such as ethanol, to be used in transportation fuel. EPA received over 78,000 public comments about Growth Energy’s application.

Initially, EPA partially granted Growth Energy’s waiver request application. Based in large part on DOE test data, the Agency approved the waiver for and allowed the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, subject to certain conditions. EPA did not approve the waiver for E15 use in MY2000 and older light-duty motor vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles (e.g., delivery trucks), highway and off-highway motorcycles, and nonroad engines, vehicles, and equipment (e.g., boats, snowmobiles, and lawnmowers) due to insufficient test data or other information to support a waiver for these vehicles and engines. At the time of the announcement in October, EPA deferred action on E15 for use in MY2001-2006 light-duty motor vehicles until DOE test data for those model years became available.

On January 21, 2011, after DOE test data were made available to the public (see EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211 at www.regulations.gov), EPA took further action on Growth Energy’s waiver request application to approve the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in MY 2001-2006 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, subject to the same conditions that apply to the partial waiver decision for later model year vehicles. Taken together, the two waiver decisions allow the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in MY2001 and newer light-duty motor vehicles if the waiver conditions are met.
What Vehicles May Use E15?

* Flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs).
* MY2001 and newer cars.
* MY2001 and newer light-duty trucks.
* MY2001 and newer medium-duty passenger vehicles. (SUVs).

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What Vehicles and Engines May Not Use E15?

* All motorcycles.
* All vehicles with heavy-duty engines, such as school buses, transit buses, and delivery trucks.
* All off-road vehicles, such as boats and snowmobiles.
* All engines in off-road equipment, such as lawnmowers and chain saws.
* All MY2000 and older cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles (SUVs).

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What Conditions are Part of the Waiver Decision?

EPA placed two types of conditions on the waiver for E15: those for mitigating the potential for misfueling of E15 into vehicles, engines and equipment for which E15 is not approved, and those addressing fuel and ethanol quality. All conditions must be met prior to the introduction of E15 into commerce.

Fuel quality conditions:

* Ethanol used for E15 must meet ASTM International D4806-10.
* The Reid Vapor Pressure for E15 is limited to 9.0 psi during the summertime.

Misfueling mitigation conditions:

* Labels must be placed on E15 retail dispensers indicating that E15 use is only for MY2001 and newer motor vehicles.
* Product Transfer Documents (PTDs) must accompany all transfers of fuels for E15 use.
* Parties involved in the manufacture of E15 must participate in a survey of compliance at fuel retail dispensing facilities to ensure proper labeling of dispensers.
* Parties must submit a plan addressing conditions to EPA for approval.

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What is EPA doing to Address Potential Misfueling?

EPA is in the process of establishing a regulatory program to help mitigate potential misfueling of vehicles, engines, and equipment for which E15 is not approved. Concurrently with the October 13, 2010 partial waiver decision, the Agency proposed a rule that would require all E15 fuel dispensers to have a label if a retail station chooses to sell E15, and sought comment on separate labeling requirements for fuel blender pumps and fuel pumps that dispense E85. Similar to the prohibition in Clean Air Act section 211(f)(1), the rule would prohibit the use of gasoline containing greater than 10 vol% ethanol in vehicles and engines not covered by the partial waiver for E15. In addition, the rule would require PTDs specifying ethanol content and Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) to accompany the transfer of gasoline blended with ethanol and a national survey of retail stations to ensure compliance with these requirements. The rule would also modify the Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) program by updating the Complex Model to allow fuel manufacturers to certify batches of gasoline containing up to E15. The measures were designed to help promote the successful introduction of E15 into commerce.

EPA held a public hearing on the proposed rule in November and provided a 60-day public comment period that ended on January 3, 2011.

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Notices and Updates
NOTE: You will need Adobe Acrobat Reader, available as a free download, to view some of the files on this page. See EPA’s PDF page to learn more about PDF, and for a link to the free Acrobat Reader.

Under the authority of Clean Air Act section 211(f)(4), EPA may consider the March 2009 application from Growth Energy for a waiver for a gasoline-ethanol blend with up to 15 vol% ethanol (E15) to be used in non-flexible-fueled vehicles.

EPA reviewed Growth Energy’s application along with available test data, other information and public comments. On October 13, 2010, EPA determined that, subject to compliance with the conditions listed in the waiver decision, a gasoline produced with greater than 10 volume percent (vol%) ethanol and up to 15 vol% ethanol will not cause or contribute to a failure of MY 2007 and newer cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger motor vehicles to achieve compliance with applicable emission standards over the vehicles’ full useful life. Therefore, EPA partially and conditionally granted Growth Energy’s waiver request for a gasoline-ethanol blend with up to 15 vol% ethanol. On January 21, 2011, EPA took further action on Growth Energy’s waiver request and granted a partial waiver for E15 use in MY 2001-2006 cars, light duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles, subject to the same conditions that apply to the partial waiver for newer light-duty motor vehicles.

* Partial waiver for use of E15 in MY2001-2006 light-duty motor vehicles | PDF Version (22 pp; 2.7MB; January 26, 2011)
* Fact Sheet: EPA Announces E15 Partial Waiver Decision | PDF Version (3 pp; 510K; EPA-420-F-11-003; January 21, 2011)
* Partial waiver for use of E15 in MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles | PDF Version (58 pp, 4.57M, published November 4, 2010)
* Status Update (July 2010)
* Status Update (PDF) (2 pp, 493K, November 30, 2009)
* Extension of Comment Period: Notice | PDF Version (2 pp, 75K, published May 20, 2009)
* Notice of Receipt of Waiver Application | PDF Version (3 pp, 77K, published April 21, 2009)

For further information or assistance, please contact Robert Anderson (anderson.robert@epa.gov) or at 202-343-9718.