Introduction: Bounded — But Potentially Extreme Q: What is the most likely future climate scenario? A: Accelerating climate disruption driven by interacting feedback loops. The good news is that physics places limits on the absolute worst-case outcomes. Earth is not expected to undergo a runaway Venus-style greenhouse effect in which oceans boil away and the […]
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The Future: Feedback Loops and the Limits of Human Adaptation
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The AI Investment Bubble and the Coming Automation Tax Debate
Investing in equities tied to the AI boom carries enormous uncertainty. Trillions of dollars are now being poured into artificial intelligence infrastructure, chips, data centers, and automation platforms — but trillions in spending do not automatically translate into trillions in profits. The core economic question remains unresolved: how will many of these companies generate sustainable […]
Debt Crosses the Line: U.S. Debt Surpasses the Size of the Economy
As of April 30, 2026, U.S. federal debt held by the public has officially exceeded the size of the entire American economy for the first time since World War II—a symbolic and economically significant milestone. Current Fiscal Snapshot What It Means for Households Crossing the 100% threshold does not trigger an immediate crisis, but it […]
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Why Have Oil Futures Stabilized?
Recent months have raised a common question in energy markets: why hasn’t oil continued to spike despite geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainty? One major factor is the active use of the U.S. strategic oil buffer system managed by the United States Department of Energy, specifically the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Strategic Petroleum Reserve Releases and […]
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The Greatest Economic Lies of All Time: War, Tariffs, and the Hidden Tax on Consumers
Perhaps the two greatest economic misconceptions of the 21st century are: Both claims are not just misleading—they fundamentally distort how the global economy actually functions. The Tariff Illusion: Who Really Pays? The tariff argument is the easier of the two to understand. Tariffs are taxes on imports. In practice, the importer—the domestic company bringing goods […]
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Tariffs, Courts, and the Growing Deficit: The Fiscal Fallout of an Illegal Trade Policy
The U.S. federal budget deficit continues to widen at an alarming pace. During the first five months of fiscal year 2026 (October 2025 through February 2026), the deficit reached $1.004 trillion, highlighting the growing fiscal imbalance facing the United States. Now, a major legal ruling on tariffs threatens to add tens or even hundreds of […]
Climate Change: Is It Too Late?
Well, no. It will never be too late. That is the part the ecofascists are depending on. The physics limits warming to roughly +9°C. At that level, much of the planet would be uninhabitable — oceans would rise dramatically, heat extremes would make large regions lethal to humans, freshwater scarcity would be widespread, and agricultural […]
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Smells Like a World War
The Irony of War: Strategic Contradictions in Trump’s Global Conflict War often exposes contradictions that would otherwise remain hidden in normal political discourse. In the current geopolitical moment, those contradictions are particularly stark. Policies pursued simultaneously by the United States under President Donald J. Trump are producing a series of strategic ironies: actions intended to […]
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David vs. Goliath: The Strategic and Economic Risks of a U.S.–Iran War
Calculating the true cost of a large-scale U.S. military campaign against Iran is extraordinarily difficult. Early reports suggest that the United States has been conducting as many as 2,000 bombing missions per day. How long such an operational tempo could continue is unclear, but the apparent objective seems straightforward: systematically destroy Iran’s conventional military infrastructure […]
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Rob Bradley Jr., the Climate Working Group, and Policy Influence Under the Trump Administration
Abstract This paper examines the professional connections of Rob Bradley Jr. to the Trump administration’s Climate Working Group (CWG), the CO₂ Coalition, and key figures including Roy Spencer, John Christy, Chris Wright, and Donald J. Trump. It evaluates Bradley’s advocacy for the CWG’s work, the legal and ethical implications of the CWG’s formation under the […]
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