Tag: green house gases

bookmark_borderClimate Change Breaks Multiple Records with Global Impacts

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The World Meteorological Organization (WHO) issued a report that states records for 2016:

  • a record global temperature
  • exceptionally low sea ice
  • unabated sea level rise
  • ocean heat

Extreme weather and climate conditions have continued into 2017.

“This report confirms that the year 2016 was the warmest on record – a remarkable 1.1 °C above the pre-industrial period, which is 0.06 °C above the previous record set in 2015. This increase in global temperature is consistent with other changes occurring in the climate system,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

“Globally averaged sea surface temperatures were also the warmest on record, global sea levels continued to rise, and Arctic sea-ice extent was well below average for most of the year,” he said.

“With levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere consistently breaking new records, the influence of human activities on the climate system has become more and more evident,” said Mr Taalas.

The report goes on to say: Global sea levels rose very strongly during the El Niño event, with the early 2016 values reaching new record highs. Global sea ice extent dropped more than 4 million square kilometres below average in November, an unprecedented anomaly for that month.

The very warm ocean temperatures contributed to significant coral bleaching and mortality was reported in many tropical waters, with important impacts on marine food chains, ecosystems and fisheries.

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere reached the symbolic benchmark of 400 parts per millions in 2015 – the latest year for which WMO global figures are available – and will not fall below that level for many generations to come because of the long-lasting nature of CO2.

Noteworthy extreme events in 2016 included severe droughts that brought food insecurity to millions in southern and eastern Africa and Central America. Hurricane Matthew caused widespread suffering in Haiti as the first category 4 storm to make landfall since 1963, and inflicted significant economic losses in the United States of America, while heavy rains and floods affected eastern and southern Asia.

The extreme weather continues in 2017.
In addition to the report on 2016, the WHO issued a supplement for 2017:
“Even without a strong El Niño in 2017, we are seeing other remarkable changes across the planet that are challenging the limits of our understanding of the climate system. We are now in truly uncharted territory,” said World Climate Research Programme Director David Carlson.

At least three times so far this winter, the Arctic has witnessed the Polar equivalent of a heatwave, with powerful Atlantic storms driving an influx of warm, moist air. This meant that at the height of the Arctic winter and the sea ice refreezing period, there were days which were actually close to melting point. Antarctic sea ice has also been at a record low, in contrast to the trend in recent years.

Scientific research indicates that changes in the Arctic and melting sea ice is leading to a shift in wider oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. This is affecting weather in other parts of the world because of waves in the jet stream – the fast moving band of air which helps regulate temperatures.

Thus, some areas, including Canada and much of the USA, were unusually balmy, whilst others, including parts of the Arabian peninsula and North Africa, were unusually cold in early 2017.

In the USA alone, 11,743 warm temperature records were broken or tied in February, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Prolonged and extreme heat in January and February affected New South Wales, southern Queensland, South Australia and northern Victoria, and saw many new temperature records.

Highlights of the 2016 Statement

Global Temperatures:

2016’s warmth extended almost worldwide. Temperatures were above the 1961-90 average over the vast majority of the world’s land areas, the only significant exceptions being an area of South America centred on central Argentina, and parts of south-western Australia.

Mean annual temperatures at least 3 °C above the 1961-1990 average occurred in various high-latitude locations, particularly along the Russian coast and in Alaska and far north-western Canada, and on islands in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. In the high Arctic, Svalbard (Norway) Airport’s 2016 mean annual temperature of −0.1 °C was 6.5 °C above the 1961-1990 average, and 1.6 °C above the previous record.

Outside the Arctic, 2016’s warmth was more notable for its consistency across the globe than for its extreme nature in individual locations.

Oceans

Globally averaged sea surface temperatures in 2016 were the warmest on record. The anomalies were strongest in the early months of 2016.

Global ocean heat content was the second-highest on record after 2015. It reached new record highs in the northern hemisphere, but was cooler in the southern hemisphere.

Globally, sea level has risen by 20 cm since the start of the twentieth century, mostly due to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of glaciers and ice caps. Global sea levels rose very strongly during the 2015/2016 El Niño, rising about 15 millimetres between November 2014 to a new record high in February 2016. This was well above the post-1993 trend of 3 to 3.5 mm per year. From February to August, sea levels remained fairly stable as the influence of the El Niño declined. Final 2016 sea level data are not yet available at the time of writing.

Arctic sea ice

The seasonal maximum, of 14.52 million square kilometres on 24 March, was the lowest in the 1979-2016 satellite record. The 2016 autumn freeze-up was exceptionally slow – with sea ice extent even contracting for a few days in mid-November.

Precipitation

Much of southern Africa began the year in severe drought. For the second year in succession, rainfall was widely 20 to 60% below average for the summer rainy season (October to April) in 2015/2016. The World Food Programme estimating that 18.2 million people would require emergency assistance by early 2017.

Provisional figures showed 2016 was the driest on record over the Amazon Basin, and there was also significant drought in north-east Brazil.  El Niño brought drought conditions elsewhere in Central America and northern South America.

The Yangtze basin in China experienced, overall, its most significant flood season since 1999, with some tributaries experiencing record flood levels. Averaged over China as a whole, it was the wettest year on record, with national mean rainfall of 730 mm being 16% above the long-term average.

Heatwaves

The year started with an extreme heatwave in southern Africa in the first week of January. On 7 January, it reached 42.7 °C at Pretoria and 38.9 °C at Johannesburg, both of which were 3 °C or more above the all-time records at those sites.

Extreme heat also affected South and South-East Asia in April and May, prior to the start of the summer monsoon. South-East Asia was badly affected in April. A national record of 44.6 °C was set at Mae Hong Son, Thailand, on 28 April, and 51.0 °C was observed on 19 May at Phalodi, the highest temperature on record for India.

Record or near-record temperatures occurred in parts of the Middle East and north Africa. The highest temperature observed was 54.0 °C at Mitribah (Kuwait) on 21 July which (subject to ratification) will be the highest temperature on record for Asia. Other extremely high temperatures included 53.9 °C at Basra (Iraq) and 53.0 °C at Delhoran (Islamic Republic of Iran – a national record), both on 22 July, whilst significant high temperatures were also reported in Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and the United Arab Emirates.

A late-season heatwave affected many parts of western and central Europe in the first half of September. In southern Spain, 45.4 °C was recorded at Cordoba on 6 September.

ABOUT WMO
WMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) with 191 Member States and Territories. It is the UN system’s authoritative voice on the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the land and oceans, the weather and climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources.

Additional References
Guide To Climate Change
The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderCoastal Change: Hurricanes and Extreme Storm Hazards

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Part of the Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

One of the goals of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program is a national assessment of coastal change hazards. Hurricanes provide a powerful force that generates dangerous waves and currents capable of moving large amounts of sand, destroying buildings and infrastructure, and reshaping our nation’s coastline. Our research focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of the impacts of hurricanes and extreme storms on the sandy beaches of the United States. The overall objective is to improve the capability to predict coastal change that results from severe storms. Such a capability will support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.

Hurricane Sandy Example

As Hurricane Sandy moved northward along the U.S. Atlantic coast in October 2012, U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked to determine where and how the storm’s waves and surge might dramatically reshape the beaches and dunes that stand between the storm and coastal developments. Through a complex modeling process that uses coastal elevations, wave forecasts, and potential storm surge, they predicted coastal change hazards, such as shoreline and dune erosion, that might be expected during a Sandy landfall.

Using the latest storm information available, USGS predicted the likelihood of a range of coastal change impacts within the region affected by the storm:

  • Dune erosion was very likely for the majority of the sandy beaches along the Maryland and Delaware coasts with widespread overwash also very likely in many areas.
  • Most of the New Jersey coast was very likely to experience extensive beach and dune erosion and many areas were very likely to overwash.
  • Along the south shore of Long Island, New York, the models predicted extensive beach and dune erosion as well as intermittent overwash.

Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, made landfall on October 30, 2012, and impacted a long swath of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Many areas that had been hit by Hurricane Irene in August 2011 were again battered by strong waves and surge. The barrier islands were breached in a number of places and erosion of the beach and dunes occurred all along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This was the most destructive storm to impact this coastline since an extremely powerful nor’easter in December of 1992.

Following landfall, oblique aerial photography and lidar surveys of beach elevations were used to document the changes that occurred as a result of the storm. In addition, field measurements of the beaches and dunes were collected immediately after the storm. Comparisons of data collected before the storm show the nature, magnitude and spatial variability of the coastal response. These data will be used to further refine predictive models for storm-induced erosion.

Response Activities

Pre-landfall

Post-landfall (approx. 3-14 days)

bookmark_borderNational Snow And Ice For 2012

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State of the Climate
National Snow & Ice
Annual 2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

The 2011/12 winter season was nearly non-existent for much of the eastern half of the nation. The December 2011-February 2012 three-month period was marked by near-record warmth across the U.S.-Canadian border, the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, limiting seasonal snowfall across those regions. Many locations had near-record low snowfall totals for the winter season. Early spring brought much of the same, when the contiguous U.S. had its warmest March on record, with a monthly temperature 8.6°F above average. The lack of snowfall and snowpack for the winter and spring across the Rockies, Great Plains, and Midwest was a precursor to the large drought episode that impacted two-thirds of the nation during the summer and autumn of 2012. In contrast to the rest of the nation, the Pacific Northwest was closer to average during winter in terms of temperature and precipitation, with several winter storms bringing heavy snowfall to the high elevations. The early-spring was wetter and cooler than average for the Northwest, contributing to above-average snowfall for many locations in the region.

US Winter snow extent anomalies
Contiguous U.S. Winter Snow Cover Extent Anomalies
Data Source: Rutgers Global Snow Lab

According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, both the winter and spring seasons brought below-average snow cover to the contiguous United States. The satellite-derived snow cover extent for December 2011-February 2012 was approximately 237,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average — the third smallest winter snow cover footprint in the 46-year satellite record. This was the first winter since 2005-2006 with below-average snow cover for the country. Only the winter seasons of 1991/92 and 1980/81 had smaller snow cover extents. The March-May spring snow cover extent was 151,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average — the third smallest spring snow cover extent on record. The springs of 1968 and 2000 had smaller seasonal snow cover footprints.

Western US Snowpack 1 May 2012
Western U.S. Snowpack
April 1, 2012
Source: USDA

Winter and spring mountain snowpack provide a crucial water source across much of the western United States. The total annual water budget for agriculture and human use in the mountainous West is highly dependant on the amount of snow melt that will occur in spring and is proportional to the amount of snow on the ground. The annual snowpack typically reaches its maximum value at the end of March. According to data from the USDA, on April 1st, 2012, above-normal snowpack was observed through the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, with near-normal snowpack stretching eastward through the northern Rockies of Idaho, Montana, and northern Wyoming. To the south, below and much-below snowpack was observed for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies. Snowpack totals less than 50 percent of normal were widespread in California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. In Alaska, snowpack totals were above normal for the Southern coasts and peninsula, and below-normal across the North Slope.

Select Significant Events

A strong and powerful winter storm moved across the Southern Rockies and High Plains of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas on December 19th and 20th of 2011. Snowfall up to 15 inches was reported across the region, and strong winds in excess of 50 mph created blizzard conditions. Parts of Interstates 25 and 70 were closed, and the storm was blamed for six deaths. Dalhart, Texas, shattered its daily snowfall record, where 7.0 inches fell on the 19th, surpassing the 0.1 inch which fell on the date in 1983. The 8.2 inches that accumulated in Pueblo, Colorado during the two-day event contributed to the city having its snowiest December on record, with 18.6 inches falling throughout the month. This surpassed the previous December record of 18.2 inches, which fell in December 1913.

Satellite Image of December 19-20 Snow Cover
Satellite Image of Pacific Northwest Snowcover
Source: NASA

A large and powerful winter storm, accompanied by a surge of moisture from the tropics often referred to as an atmospheric river or the ‘Pineapple Express’, impacted the western U.S. January 18th–23rd. The worst impacts were felt across the Pacific Northwest, where several feet of snow accumulated and strong winds were observed, causing icy roads, downed power lines, and avalanches. A state of emergency was declared for much of Oregon and Washington, where over a quarter-million households lost electricity. Impressive wind, snow, and rain measurements were made during the event Mount Hood, Oregon received over 50 inches of snow, winds approaching 90 mph were measured at Summer Lake, Oregon, and over 15 inches of rain fell at Swiss Home, Oregon. The Mary’s River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record. Seven inches of snow fell in Seattle, which averages only 8 inches of snow a year. To the south, across the high terrain of California and Nevada, the precipitation was a welcome sight, where very dry conditions had previously dominated during the 2011-2012 winter season. Nevada’s Carson River Basin had snowpack only 8 percent of normal before the storm (compared to 224 percent at the same point in January 2011, one year prior).

A record-breaking snow storm impacted eastern Colorado and parts of Nebraska February 2nd–4th. The slow moving storm dropped 15.9 inches of snow in Denver, a new February snow storm record, surpassing the previous record of 14.1 inches set in February 1912. The 22.7 inches that fell in Boulder was also a February record. Snow accumulations greater than three feet were widespread across the region’s highest terrain. Storms of this magnitude are more common in the region during the early spring months of March and April. As the storm moved off to the east it dropped upwards of a foot of snow across much of Nebraska. The 11.1 inches that accumulated in Lincoln, Nebraska was the fourth largest 24-hour snowfall on record for the city.

Snow totals Feb 29 2012
Satellite Image of CO and NE Snow Cover
Source: NWS

A potent storm system on February 28th and 29th brought heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and into the Northeast. Snowfall totals exceeding one foot fell in a string of states from South Dakota to Maine. The heaviest snow fell across Minnesota and Wisconsin, where snow totals approached two feet, accompanied by winds gusting to 50 mph, creating blizzard conditions for several hours. The snow from this storm was one of the few snow events this season across many of the regions affected. Much of the Northern Plains, Great Lakes

Pacific NW March 22 snowfall
22 March Pacific Northwest Snowfall
Source: National Snow Analysis

During March, as much of the eastern U.S. was basking in record breaking warmth, an upper-level trough brought cooler-than-average conditions and late-season precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. On March 22nd, a large Pacific extra-tropical cyclone slammed into the West Coast, dumping upwards of three feet of snow across the high elevations of the Washington and Oregon Cascade Mountains. The 0.5 inch of snow that fell at the Portland, Oregon airport was the largest snowfall accumulation this late in the season. Salem and Eugene, Oregon both set new March snow storm records with 2.5 and 7.5 inches of snow, respectively. This storm was part of a larger and persistent weather pattern which brought much-above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures to the region during March. The 7.89 inches of precipitation that accumulated in Portland was a new monthly record.

April 24th Northeast Snow Depth
24 April Northeast Snow Depth
Source: NOAA NNVL

A late-season storm dropped over a foot of snow from West Virginia to Upstate New York, along the higher elevations of central and northern Appalachian Mountains, on April 23rd and 24th. To the east, in the lower elevations, heavy rain fell across the large cities of the Northeast. This type of coastal storm, called a Nor’easter, was only the second of the season to impact the eastern seaboard, with the other being very early in the season in October. The snow storm was also on the heels of the warmest March on record for many locations across the region, where most trees already had begun to leaf. The snow falling on trees with leaves caused additional headaches by bringing down limbs and cutting power to at least 75,000 residents. The storm also resulted in at least 48 daily snowfall records. Although the storm did have some negative impacts, it provided drought-relieving precipitation for many locations in the Northeast.

Sandy Snowfall Totals
Sandy remnant-low snowfall totals

The remnant low pressure system from Hurricane Sandy dropped copious amounts of snow across the Southern and Central Appalachians as it moved westward after making landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey on October 29th. Over a foot of snow was reported in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, shattering October monthly snowfall records. Widespread, heavy snow of this magnitude during October has never been observed across this region. The largest snow totals occurred along the highest elevations of the Appalachians, with Mount Leconte, Tennessee receiving 33 inches of snow and Terra Alta, West Virginia measuring 36 inches. Very strong winds combined with the snow to create blizzard conditions for up to two days in some locations. The largest impacts of the storm were the massive power outages due to downed trees and power lines and building collapses because of the heavy, wet nature of the snow. Flooding was also a concern as warm temperatures returned quickly after the storm causing rapid melt and runoff.

Citing This Report

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: National Snow & Ice for Annual 2012

bookmark_borderGlobal Warming And Climate Volatility

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As part of the Human Induced Climate Change Experiment, we have been predicting the effects of global warming on climate volatility. Indeed, we have seen a marked severity in volatile weather systems.

2012 went down as the hottest year in recorded history. Though we are only several days into January, the year is already setting records. There has been snow in the deserts of China, record heat and wildfires in Australia… while record cold temperatures have killed hundreds in India.

bookmark_borderNorthern Hemisphere Snow Cover is Retreating

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PHILADELPHIA, PA — What is up with the weather? Yes, we have seen some freaky storms over the past few years. Global warming is expected to cause volatile weather patterns. Indeed, that is what we have been experiencing; however, overall the Northern Hemisphere is showing a steady decline in snowfall.

NOAA:

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent
Average of monthly snow cover extent anomalies over Northern Hemisphere lands (including Greenland) since Nov 1966. Right: Seasonal snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere lands since winter 1966-67. Calculated from NOAA snow maps. From BAMS State of the Climate in 2009 report.

Northern Hemisphere average annual snow cover has declined in recent decades. This pattern is consistent with warmer global temperatures. Some of the largest declines have been observed in the spring and summer months.

bookmark_borderAustralia Carbon Tax

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On July 1, 2012 Australia will impose a price on carbon emissions.

A price on carbon is the most environmentally effective and economically efficient way to reduce pollution. This means our economy can continue to prosper – without our pollution continuing to grow. The Government’s plan for a clean energy future includes four key components. Firstly, the establishment of a carbon price. Secondly, support for renewable energy. Thirdly, to support improvements in energy efficiency. And fourthly, to store carbon through changed land-use practices. So, they’re the four key foundations, if you like, of our plan for a clean energy future. A carbon price has got a very important role to play because it puts a price tag on pollution. For the first time in our economy, the largest polluters will have to pay a price for every tonne of pollution that they put into the atmosphere, and that creates the incentive to cut pollution and it also creates the pressure to innovate, the pressure to invest in cleaner energy sources. And that’ll be very important for the future of our country and our economy and our living standards, because it’s the countries in the 21st century that have innovated and that have got clean energy as a key part of their economic future that will be the most competitive, and that’s very important for our future as well.

More on Carbon Taxes, Cap and Trade and Emissions Trading
More on Global Warming and Climate Change

Questions Answered

Q. Where will the money raised from the carbon price go?

A.

More than half of the money raised will be used to assist households. The majority of households will receive tax cuts, increased assistance payments  or both. With the rest of the money, the Government will be supporting jobs in the most affected industries and investing in our clean energy future. Find more questions about: Carbon Price , Household / Family

Q. Will I have to pay the carbon price?

A.

No, it’s not a tax on households or small businesses – Australia’s biggest polluters will be required to pay for their pollution under the carbon pricing mechanism. They account for around 60 per cent of our carbon pollution. For more information on Australia’s biggest polluters. Find more questions about: Carbon Price , Household / Family

An environmental problem with an economic solution

Putting a price on carbon is the most environmentally effective and cheapest way to cut pollution. This is a fact that is well recognized by economists from around the world, and respected institutions such as the OECD and the Productivity Commission. Currently, releasing carbon pollution is free despite the fact that it is harming our environment. A carbon price changes this. It puts a price on the carbon pollution that Australia’s largest polluters produce. This creates a powerful incentive for all businesses to cut their pollution, by investing in clean technology or finding more efficient ways of operating. It encourages businesses across all industries to find the cheapest and most effective way of reducing carbon pollution, rather than relying on more costly approaches such as government regulation and direct action.

A carbon price means a strong and growing economy

The economy will continue to grow as Australia embraces a clean energy future. Treasury modelling estimates that under a carbon price:

  • Average incomes grow strongly under a carbon price. Average incomes are expected to increase by about 16 per cent from current levels by 2020, an increase of around $9000 in today’s dollars. By 2050, the increase is expected to be more than $30,000.
  • National employment is projected to increase by 1.6 million jobs by 2020.


Breaking the link between emissions and economic growth

The carbon price is the first element of the Government’s plan for a clean energy future: it will trigger a broad transformation of the economy. Our economy has successfully handled comparable structural changes over its history. In fact, transformative changes – new products and technologies, and the integration of our economy into the global economy set in train by the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s – have underpinned rising prosperity and sustainable growth in Australia. Treasury modelling shows that, under a carbon price, the economy continues to grow.

Figure 1: Gross National Income with and without the carbon price

Breaking the link between emissions and economic growth For more information see: Chapter 3 – Putting a price on carbon pollution. For further details about a carbon price see:

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