Category: International

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Adapt or Die

Posted on by admin

United Nations Press Release — UN scientists on Monday delivered a stark warning about the impact of climate change on people and the planet, saying that ecosystem collapse, species extinction, deadly heatwaves and floods are among the “unavoidable multiple climate hazards” the world will face over the next two decades due to global warming.

UN-IPCC-Climate-Change-March-2022 PDF

Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet. Taking action now can secure our future

BERLIN, Feb 28 – Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce the risks. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released today.

“This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.”

The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F). Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. Risks for society will increase, including to infrastructure and low-lying coastal settlements.

The Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Working Group II report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability was approved on Sunday, February 27 2022, by 195 member governments of the IPCC, through a virtual approval session that was held over two weeks starting on February 14.

Urgent action required to deal with increasing risks

Increased heatwaves, droughts and floods are already exceeding plants’ and animals’ tolerance thresholds, driving mass mortalities in species such as trees and corals. These weather extremes are occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to manage. They have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on Small Islands and in the Arctic.

To avoid mounting loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, ambitious, accelerated action is required to adapt to climate change, at the same time as making rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. So far, progress on adaptation is uneven and there are increasing gaps between action taken and what is needed to deal with the increasing risks, the new report finds. These gaps are largest among lower-income populations.

The Working Group II report is the second instalment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed this year.

“This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, biodiversity and people and integrates natural, social and economic sciences more strongly than earlier IPCC assessments,” said Hoesung Lee. “It emphasizes the urgency of immediate and more ambitious action to address climate risks. Half measures are no longer an option.”

Safeguarding and strengthening nature is key to securing a liveable future

There are options to adapt to a changing climate. This report provides new insights into nature’s potential not only to reduce climate risks but also to improve people’s lives.

“Healthy ecosystems are more resilient to climate change and provide life-critical services such as food and clean water”, said IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair Hans-Otto Pörtner. “By restoring degraded ecosystems and effectively and equitably conserving 30 to 50 per cent of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean habitats, society can benefit from nature’s capacity to absorb and store carbon, and we can accelerate progress towards sustainable development, but adequate finance and political support are essential.”

Scientists point out that climate change interacts with global trends such as unsustainable use of natural resources, growing urbanization, social inequalities, losses and damages from extreme events and a pandemic, jeopardizing future development.

“Our assessment clearly shows that tackling all these different challenges involves everyone – governments, the private sector, civil society – working together to prioritize risk reduction, as well as equity and justice, in decision-making and investment,” said IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair Debra Roberts.

“In this way, different interests, values and world views can be reconciled. By bringing together scientific and technological know-how as well as Indigenous and local knowledge, solutions will be more effective. Failure to achieve climate resilient and sustainable development will result in a sub-optimal future for people and nature.”

Cities: Hotspots of impacts and risks, but also a crucial part of the solution

This report provides a detailed assessment of climate change impacts, risks and adaptation in cities, where more than half the world’s population lives. People’s health, lives and livelihoods, as well as property and critical infrastructure, including energy and transportation systems, are being increasingly adversely affected by hazards from heatwaves, storms, drought and flooding as well as slow-onset changes, including sea level rise.

“Together, growing urbanization and climate change create complex risks, especially for those cities that already experience poorly planned urban growth, high levels of poverty and unemployment, and a lack of basic services,” Debra Roberts said.

“But cities also provide opportunities for climate action – green buildings, reliable supplies of clean water and renewable energy, and sustainable transport systems that connect urban and rural areas can all lead to a more inclusive, fairer society.”

There is increasing evidence of adaptation that has caused unintended consequences, for example destroying nature, putting peoples’ lives at risk or increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This can be avoided by involving everyone in planning, attention to equity and justice, and drawing on Indigenous and local knowledge.

A narrowing window for action

Climate change is a global challenge that requires local solutions and that’s why the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) provides extensive regional information to enable Climate Resilient Development.

The report clearly states Climate Resilient Development is already challenging at current warming levels. It will become more limited if global warming exceeds 1.5°C (2.7°F). In some regions it will be impossible if global warming exceeds 2°C (3.6°F). This key finding underlines the urgency for climate action, focusing on equity and justice. Adequate funding, technology transfer, political commitment and partnership lead to more effective climate change adaptation and emissions reductions.

“The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner.

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Code Red for Humanity

Posted on by admin

The UN’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control) release their latest report that has been compiled and peer-reviewed over the last 8 years.

U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres described the report as “a code red for humanity.”

“The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk,” said Mr. Guterres.

Some of the changes already set in motion will be “irreversible” for centuries to come.

A press release from the IPCC states:

The report provides new estimates of the chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C in the next decades, and finds that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.

The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming. This assessment is based on improved observational datasets to assess historical warming, as well progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

“This report is a reality check,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte. “We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare.”

Every region facing increasing changes

Many characteristics of climate change directly depend on the level of global warming, but what people experience is often very different to the global average. For example, warming over land is larger than the global average, and it is more than twice as high in the Arctic.

“Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with additional warming,” said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Panmao Zhai.

The report projects that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows.

But it is not just about temperature. Climate change is bringing multiple different changes in different regions – which will all increase with further warming. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snow and ice, coastal areas and oceans. For example:

* Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.
* Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.
* Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.
* Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
* Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
* For cities, some aspects of climate change may be amplified, including heat (since urban areas are usually warmer than their surroundings), flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities.

For the first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation, and other decision-making, and a new framework that helps translate physical changes in the climate – heat, cold, rain, drought, snow, wind, coastal flooding and more – into what they mean for society and ecosystems.

This regional information can be explored in detail in the newly developed Interactive Atlas interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch as well as regional fact sheets, the technical summary, and underlying report.

Human influence on the past and future climate

“It has been clear for decades that the Earth’s climate is changing, and the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed,” said Masson-Delmotte. Yet the new report also reflects major advances in the science of attribution – understanding the role of climate change in intensifying specific weather and climate events such as extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall events.

The report also shows that human actions still have the potential to determine the future course of climate. The evidence is clear that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main driver of climate change, even as other greenhouse gases and air pollutants also affect the climate.

“Stabilizing the climate will require strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate,” said Zhai.

More on The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderDaniel Brouse: About the Author

Posted on by admin

Q: Any background on membrane .com?

A: In 1994, I started a publishing company with another scientist (low temperature physicist and co-builder of the Ohio States supercomputer). The name of the publishing company is The Philadelphia Spirit Experiment. As the name suggests, it is a scientific experiment in the publishing of arts and science. At the time, domain names were free and the world wide web was 6 months old. We wanted a name that both rhymed and made a good scientific pun — everything passes through the Membrane Domain. The KingArthur.com anti-IQ test launched in 1995.

We were the first record company, fine arts, science, technology, math, and engineering publisher on the web. As such, we were the first to analize web traffic. Our monthly audience is over 300 million. Innovations include: the clickable button on a webpage, MP3 distribution, pay-per-download, free streaming music, the web-based video… and interactive games to save the planet (including a $1,000,000 prize to solve the Anthropogenic Global Warming problem.

My areas of expertise include: musicology, geology, meteorology, anthropology, biology, health & wellness, sociology, security, climate change, physics, finance, economics, statistics, computer science, data science, chaos theory, political science, publishing, logic, and philosophy. In general, my aptitude is in science, technology, engineering, and math.

— Daniel Brouse

bookmark_borderThe True Costs (and Benefitlessness) of a Trump Economy

Posted on by admin

January 23, 2020

What are the costs and benefits to the United States under a Trump economy?

Financial Analysis: Current State of Affairs
First, start with a financial analysis — a snapshot of the current economic health of the nation. What would a financial analysis that is similar to an individual applying for a bank loan, or a married couple visiting a financial planner for their retirement plan, look like? What are the assets and liabilities? What type of assets and liabilities are in your portfolio? What are your saving patterns? Did you get a large gift from your parents or have you been showing a strong pattern of saving over time? What is your income? Have you made dubious loans to yourself? Where does your income come from? What is your credit history?

A financial analysis of the U.S.A. results in a failing grade.

Impacts of Fiscal and Monetary Policy
After examining the current state of affairs, examine the fiscal policies of the Executive Branch and the monetary policies pushed onto the Federal Reserve. The Trump administration has taken extremely negative positions with free-trade, as well as, jeopardized the standing of the world reserve currency.

Tariffs
The Trump administration has destroyed the United States leadership in free-trade. Huge taxes were placed upon the American public through the use of tariffs. The tariffs were put on goods and services from around the world and paid for by the American consumer. The placement of tariffs have circumvented congress’ oversight and consumer protection considerations. Not only do tariffs introduce new taxes on the population, they also destroy trade relationships with other countries. That is to say, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs cause foreign countries to look elsewhere for their imports. For example, China’s retaliatory tariffs on agriculture resulted in China developing new trade partnerships that do not include the USA.

Here is a partial list of Trump Tariffs:
Solar panels: 15 – 30%
Washing machines: 16 – 50%
Steel and aluminum: 10 – 25%
Chinese products: 15 – 50%
South Korean products: 25%

More tariffs were placed on India, Canada, Mexico, the European Union and others.

Tariffs not only have a direct impact on U.S. current affairs, but they will leave everlasting damage.

Inflation
The overall Trump economic policy has put the economy at risk of high inflation and interest rates.

Inflation Update: Immigration and the Wage Inflation Spiral (June 12, 2022)
An important factor in the 2022 record inflation situation can be traced back to the Trump immigration policy.

The US has stagnant population growth (as does the UK, EU, etc. Japan has a declining population.)

During the Trump administration, the US drastically curtailed immigration. The Biden administration continues to do so today.

The result has been wage inflation. The wage inflation that started in 2018 began the overall inflation spiral that continues today. A wage inflation spiral happens when the initial wage inflation is canceled out by the price inflation requiring further wage inflation to keep up with the price inflation… the increase prices require more wage inflation for employees to keep pace with the cost of living… the subsequent rise in wages results in the need to raise prices to pay the workers… and round and round we go.

The solutions are to either increase our population (through immigration) and/or increase our productivity by eliminating the need for humans.

How the Inflation Spiral Started: Immigration
The Trump administration’s policy on immigration and building The Wall have a devastating impact on the economy. The U.S. economy is a capitalistic system based on population growth. The birth rate in America is close to zero percent. In order to maintain the standard of living, the country needs to gain millions of people through immigration. The Trump policies have attempted to eliminate immigration.
— Daniel Brouse (2020)

* “Over the course of four years, the Trump administration set an unprecedented pace for executive action on immigration, enacting 472 administrative changes that dismantled and reconstructed many elements of the U.S. immigration system. Humanitarian protections were severely diminished. The U.S.-Mexico border became more closed off. Immigration enforcement appeared more random. And legal immigration became out of reach for many. All of this was accomplished nearly exclusively by the executive branch, with sweeping presidential proclamations and executive orders, departmental policy guidance, and hundreds of small, technical adjustments.” — Migration Policy Institute’s Four Years of Profound Change (2022>

* “After years of wage stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages,” Donald Trump (State of the Union 2018)
“The Employment Cost Index, a measure of salary and benefit costs, registered a 2.6 percent gain for the full year, tied for the best since 2007.” — CNBC (January 31, 2018)

* From December of 2020 through January of 2022, nominal wages and salaries were up 4.5 percent, the fastest increase since 1983. — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

World Reserve Currency
“A nation that prints its own currency, and that currency is the world reserve currency, is not threatened by deficits. Until that currency stops being the reserve currency,” said Sidd Mukherjee.

The U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency has given the United States an unfair economic advantage. The U.S. has been able to “print” and borrow money in ways that break the rules of economics; however, the Trump administration has jeopardized the standing of the dollar as the world reserve currency.

The major economic powers of the world entered into a nuclear arms deal with Iran called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In October of 2017, Trump began pulling out of the agreement. On May 8, 2018, Trump announced the United States withdrawal from JCPOA and declared economic warfare on Iran. The warfare included “tough new sanctions” on Iran. The other countries to the treaty attempted to maintain the JCPOA by developing a new system to by-pass the world reserve currency.

Germany, France and Britain officially set up a European mechanism to facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran, the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (Instex). Russia and other countries have since joined Instex.

Risk Management
The future of the nation is dependent on current risk management. “On the High Risk List; the fragmentation, overlap, and duplication annual report; natural disasters and climate change; and other topics,” reports the General Accounting Office of the USA. Pollution, in particular air pollution, is also a substantial risk. CO2, methane and other greenhouse gases have all increased under the Trump plan. Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and has consistently called climate change a hoax.

It’s never a good idea to say “never”… but, risk-management-denial always increases the probability of a worse case scenario.

Not only is our nation’s current cash-flow severely hemorrhaging due to extreme weather events (and other costs associated with climate change), but this is just the tip of the iceberg. Climate change denial is risk-management-denial.

Pollution and Climate Change Costs Unsustainable

Trump recently stated, “We have the cleanest air.” This is a boldfaced lie. Air pollution in the form of particulates and ozone are a severe health emergency in the United States.

“According to a 2009 report, around ’60 percent of Americans live in areas where air pollution has reached unhealthy levels that can make people sick.’ Air pollution can cause a variety of health problems including, but not limited to infections, behavioral changes, cancer, organ failure, and even premature death.” (Wikipedia) Air pollution is the number one cause of illness in the world and the second leading cause of death. The cost of air pollution can not be contained by one country — pollution knows no borders. It is estimated 8 million people a year die from air pollution.

A report by Stanford and Carnegie Mellon University states, “Air pollution negatively impacts the U.S. economy, costing the U.S. roughly 5 percent of its yearly gross domestic product (GDP) in damages ($790 billion in 2014). The highest costs come from early deaths, attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5).” The number had been falling up to 2016, but Trump has dramatically undermined clean air laws. As of December 2019, Trump had rolled back 95 environmental protection laws.

Air pollution also contributes to the climate change crisis, and in an exponential feedback loop, climate change contributes to air pollution. For instance, the wildfires in California and Australia were made more severe due to human induced climate change. The wildfires resulted in air pollution that costs billions of dollars in damages, illness and death. The wildfires also contributed to greenhouse gases and climate change that will result in more wildfires.

Though a huge cost, the climate change / air pollution feedback loop is just a small cost of climate change. Not only has the Trump administration not properly assessed the risk of climate change, the administration has undermined efforts to mitigate climate change. Even more brazen, the administration has enacted policies that hasten the devastation of global warming.

The costs of climate change are huge. The Hamilton Project and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research reports, “Damages to the U.S. economy grow with temperature change at an increasing rate.” The Washington Post reports, “Climate change could cost the U.S. economy up to 10.5% of GDP by 2100.” The cost of not adapting to climate change will likely cripple the American economy.

The current costs, the costs of not adapting, and the costs of not preventing climate change are overwhelming to calculate. Take flood insurance as an example. Sea level rise and extreme weather events have redrawn floodmaps and bankrupted the National Flood Insurance Program. What flood insurance that is still available has started a series of exponential increases in premiums. Real estate along the coasts and flood prone areas will become worthless in the coming years.

The other costs associated with the Trump administration’s climate change policy is too long to list.  Fossil fuel elimination and climate change mitigation our essential for risk management.

Immigration and the Acquisition Of Private Property
The Trump administration’s policy on immigration and building The Wall have a devastating impact on the economy. First, the U.S. economy is a capitalistic system based on population growth. The birth rate in America is close to zero percent. In order to maintain the standard of living, the country needs to gain millions of people through immigration. The Trump policies have attempted to eliminate immigration.

Also of a long-term negative impact is the building of The Wall. Funds to build the wall were diverted against the will of congress. The funds were then used to seize private land. The land seizures and The Wall have had a major impact on nature preserves and indigenous sacred grounds. Just as detrimental are the eminent domain acquisitions of individuals’ land. Socialization of private property is an attack on the economic system. The costs to the economy and freedom are not quantifiable.

Income Inequality
The Trump administration’s policies have widened the economic divide and income inequality in the United States.  Trump said, “inequality is down.” The next day federal data was released and the Washington Post reported, “The separation between rich and poor from 2017 and 2018 was greater than it has ever been.”

“Wages are up, and inequality is down. Something that people don’t like writing about.” Trump said during a press conference following the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York. Again, this is not true. The Economic Policy Institute reports, “Slow wage growth is a key sign of how far the U.S. economy remains from a full recovery. Nominal wage growth since the recovery officially began in mid-2009 has been low and flat.”

BENEFITS
There have not been any real benefits from Trump policies. Some people try to point to employment and tax cuts.

Employment
Employment and unemployment numbers became irrelevant as an economic indicator in the 1990’s. The internet and the worldwide web transformed the definition of employment. In addition, you would need to deduct all the jobs lost through the elimination of most temporary work visas. Many of these jobs have not been filled, especially in agriculture, horticulture and hospitality. Billions of dollars in wages and taxes have been eliminated through the Trump immigration policy. These numbers are not included in employment figures.

During the fourth quarter of 2016, 7.6 million people were unemployed. At the end of 2018, 9.0 million people remained unemployed. Yet, Trump claims to have created 5 million new jobs. Do the math.

In January 2020, Trump boasted at a campaign rally in Wildwood, NJ that “factory jobs were the best ever in the history of the United States.” Reuters reported, U.S. factory sector in deepest slump in more than 10 years. “The U.S. manufacturing sector fell into its deepest slump in more than a decade in December as the U.S.-China trade war kept a lid on factory output, orders and employment…. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 47.2 last month from 48.1 in November. It was the lowest reading since June 2009 and, coupled with readings for both new orders and factory employment at multi-year lows, thwarted expectations for a leveling off in the pace of decline in a sector buffeted by trade tensions. ”

Tax Cuts
The only beneficial tax cut that has been made by the administration was to lower corporate taxes. Corporate profits are already taxed as income to shareholders. The corporate tax is double taxation. A fair tax policy would not have corporate taxation. However, the other Trump trade and tax policies’ negative impacts far outweigh the positive impact of a reduction in corporate tax rates.

But, What About Obama?
Obama increased the national debt by about $1 trillion/year. Trump is increasing the national debt by about $1 trillion/year. What makes Trump worse than Obama — Trump is suppose to be a fiscally conservative Republican. Obama wasn’t suppose to be. So, for that reason, Trump’s deceit makes it worse than Obama. Trump is not stopping the problem. Worse yet, he is contributing to the problem at the same rate as Obama, as well as, putting the future economy at risk through bad trade and environmental policies. Trump is trying to con the American public into a false narrative on the economy.  In fact, this is not “the best economy ever. Rather, it is the worst economy ever.

Morning Brew reported, U.S. Budget Deficit to Exceed $1 Trillion in 2020. “The U.S. budget deficit will top $1 trillion this year, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). What that means: The government will spend $1.02 trillion more than it collects in 2020. The widening deficit is a result of the 2017 tax cuts and an increase in spending on federal programs.”

By 2020, the debt to GDP ratio hit its highest level ever at 125%.

Conclusion
The national debt is unsustainable. The debt, risk-management-denial, deceit, nationalism, and greed will sink our ship.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
The responsibility an economist accepts is to determine the “costs and benefits of our actions on society.” Then, attempt to convert the difference into dollars. Is economics opinion? That depends on your value of the costs and benefits of your actions on society.

bookmark_borderWorst Economy Ever: United States Financial Health in 2020 Hindsight

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
Economist, Pi Gamma Mu

January 22, 2020

The U.S. economy is the worst in history. There are several measures for the health of an economy. One of the best is the “debt to GDP” ratio. National debt divided by the nation’s gross domestic product = debt to GDP ratio.

During 2019, the nation’s debt to GDP ratio reached a record high (when the Fed’s balance sheet is included.)

Calculation:
23.177 trillion $ 2019 Debt
3.8 trillion $ assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet
_______________
26.977‬ trillion
/ divided by the GDP
21.439 trillion
_______________
125.83% debt to GDP ratio

One hundred and twenty-five percent is the highest debt to GDP ratio in the history of the United States of America.

When an individual borrows money, their debt to income ratio usually can not exceed 36%. The debt to income ratio is a reliable indicator of the ability to repay a loan. Exceptions are made for young borrowers with likely prospects of wage growth. The growth rate of the US GDP has been flat and is projected to go lower.

When a nation borrows money, the debt to GDP ratio also determines the ability to repay the debt. Therefore, it is safe to say the U.S. is in the worst economic position ever.

It’s not really a good idea to compare the debt to GDP ratio to other countries or periods in time. A better rule of thumb would be a ratio under 40% and preferably close to 0; however, for those that are curious:
Denmark — 35%
Switzerland — 33%
Australia — 47%
China — 47%
UK — 87%
Mozambique — 119%

The USA historically has had a ratio in the 30% range from 1967 through 1984. The last time the ratio came close to today’s 125% was in 1945 – 1947 when the ratio hit 119% due to the effects of WWII, the recession, and President Truman’s economic policies.

Why the Fed’s Balance Sheet is Important
It is very important to include the assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in the calculation. The reason being — the Fed should not have any assets on its balance sheet. When the Fed buys assets from the Treasury, the government is in fact borrowing the money from itself. The government is “printing” money. The government is competing with the private sector to lend the government money. Interest rates are artificially low due to the lack of competition. Borrowing more money to repay debt is unsustainable.

The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO)
The GAO has the best accountants in the world. The GAO says: “The Comptroller General testified before Congress about the government’s unsustainable fiscal outlook, the need for a long-term plan to address growing debt, and other aspects of the nation’s fiscal health.” The comptroller concludes the continued growth of public debt is unsustainable. “This statement is based on our prior work on the High Risk List; the fragmentation, overlap, and duplication annual report; natural disasters and climate change; and other topics.”

Worst Economy Ever
The U.S. economy is currently the worst in the nation’s history. At no time in history has our debt + Fed assets / GDP = 125%. The economy is unsustainable.

bookmark_borderClimate Change and Disaster Displacement

Posted on by admin

The UN Refugee Agency reports:

Research indicates that the Earth’s climate is changing at a rate that has exceeded most scientific forecasts. Some families and communities have already started to suffer from disasters and the consequences of climate change, which has forced them to leave their homes in search of a new beginning.

UNHCR recognizes that the consequences of climate change are extremely serious, including for refugees and other people of concern. The Global Compact on Refugees, adopted by an overwhelming majority in the UN General Assembly in December 2018, directly addresses this growing concern. It recognizes that ‘climate, environmental degradation and natural disasters increasingly interact with the drivers of refugee movements.’

The impacts of climate change are numerous. Limited natural resources, such as drinking water, are likely to become even scarcer in many parts of the world. Crops and livestock struggle to survive in climate change ‘hotspots’ where conditions become too hot and dry, or too cold and wet, threatening livelihoods and exacerbating food insecurity.

People are trying to adapt to the changing environment, but many are being forcibly displaced from their homes by the effects of climate change and disasters, or are relocating in order to survive. New displacement patterns, and competition over depleted natural resources can spark conflict between communities or compound pre-existing vulnerabilities.

People displaced across borders in the context of climate change and disasters may in some circumstances be in need of international protection. Refugee law therefore has an important role to play in this area. UNHCR is providing protection and assistance for many people forcibly displaced by the effects of climate change and disasters, among other drivers, and is working to increase their resilience.
UNHCR’s role in addressing climate change and disaster-related displacement

UNHCR’s work on climate change and disaster displacement covers four main areas:

Legal advice, guidance and the development of norms to support the enhanced protection of the rights of people displaced in the context of disasters and climate change.
Promoting policy coherence to ensure that issues of disaster displacement are effectively mainstreamed across relevant areas.
Research to fill gaps that underpin this operational and policy work.
Field-based activities to address internal and cross-border disaster displacement; to reduce the environmental impact of refugee settlements and ensure sustainable responses to displacement; risk reduction activities and others which may contribute to efforts to avert, minimize and address displacement.

Through its participation in global policy processes, UNHCR has played a pioneering role in raising awareness about climate change as a driver of displacement and the need to address protection for people displaced in the context of disasters.

In 2018, extreme weather events such as severe drought in Afghanistan, Tropical Cyclone Gita in Samoa, and flooding in the Philippines, resulted in acute humanitarian needs. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, there were 18.8 million new disaster-related internal displacements recorded in 2017. Most disaster displacement linked to natural hazards and the impacts of climate change is internal, with those affected remaining within their national borders. However, displacement across borders also occurs, and may be interrelated with situations of conflict or violence.

In all cases, people displaced by disasters have needs and vulnerabilities that must be addressed. People already displaced for reasons other than disasters linked to natural hazards – including refugees, stateless people, and the internally displaced – often reside in climate change ‘hotspots’ and may be exposed to secondary displacement. Moreover, similar impacts on their home areas can inhibit their ability to safely return.

UNHCR plays a leading role in the Global Protection Cluster for protecting and assisting people who are forcibly displaced inside their countries and cannot return safely home. When called upon to intervene, can deploy emergency teams and provide concrete support in terms of registration, documentation, family reunification and the provision of shelter, basic hygiene and nutrition. UNHCR is also a standing invitee to the Steering Group of the Platform on Disaster Displacement, in follow-up to the Nansen Initiative on cross-border disaster displacement. The Platform on Disaster Displacement is a State-led initiative focused on the implementation of the Nansen Initiative’s Protection Agenda.

UNHCR has developed planned relocation guidance together with Georgetown University and other partners for the relocation of at-risk populations to protect them from disasters and the impacts of climate change while respecting their human rights. Furthermore, UNHCR has provided technical support to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process since 2008, including through the Advisory Group on Human Mobility and Climate Change, and in its role as a member of the Task Force on Displacement (TFD) mandated by the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage.

In 2018, in the implementation of the Workplan of the TFD, UNHCR commissioned a mapping on existing international and regional guidance and tools on averting, minimizing, addressing and facilitating durable solutions to displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change and contributed to the development of recommendations for integrated approaches to avert, minimize and address displacement linked to the adverse effects of climate change that were presented at COP24 and adopted by Parties. UNHCR remains committed to continue providing technical support to Parties in implementing the Paris Agreement, and to actively participating in the TFD under its renewed mandate.
‘Climate refugees’?

The term “climate refugee” is often used in the media and other discussions. However, this phrase can cause confusion, as it does not exist in international law. A “refugee” is defined as a person who has crossed an international border “owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion” (1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees). In some contexts, the definition extends to persons fleeing “events seriously disturbing public order” (1969 OAU Convention; 1984 Cartagena Declaration). Climate change affects people inside their own countries, and typically creates internal displacement before it reaches a level where it displaces people across borders. There may be situations where the refugee criteria of the 1951 Convention or broader refugee criteria of regional refugee law frameworks may apply, for example if drought-related famine is linked to situations of armed conflict and violence – an area known as “nexus dynamics.” Regardless, the term “climate refugee” is not endorsed by UNHCR, and it is more accurate to refer to “persons displaced in the context of disasters and climate change.”
Nexus Dynamics

Recent history has borne witness to cross border movements in situations where conflict or violence has interacted with disaster or adverse effects of climate change. Yet, research on how destination States have used refugee law to provide international protection in these complex situations has traditionally been limited. To address this knowledge gap and to identify policy and practical solutions to strengthen the implementation of refugee law based international protection when cross-border movements occur in the context of nexus dynamics, in 2018 UNHCR undertook the study: In Harm’s Way: International protection in the context of nexus dynamics between conflict or violence and disaster or climate change.

It examines the protection provided to people displaced across borders by countries of destination in specific situations in the Horn of Africa and the Americas, where conflict or violence interacted with climate change or disaster. A brief overview of the study, which sets out the scope, key observations and recommendations, is available in English, French and Spanish. The study’s findings build on UNHCR’s Legal considerations on refugee protection for people fleeing conflict and famine affected countries and indicate that refugee law frameworks can be applicable in situations where nexus dynamics are present. Nevertheless, there are still data and knowledge gaps in this area that need to be addressed.

bookmark_borderNetherlands Double Whammy

Posted on by admin

Molly Quell reports: Blowing in the Wind: Why the Netherlands Is Sinking

Over the centuries, windmills built to drain peatland for agriculture have been causing the ground to steadily sink.

This subsidence means that in a low-lying nation famous for engineering its way around rising seas, the ground is also sinking lower, creating huge problems for the structures built on top. At a certain point, building foundations begin to crack, sinkholes appear, roads destabilize, and the risk of flooding increases. More construction results in more pressing down of the peat — and more subsidence.

A 2016 report from the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, a research group that advises the government, estimated that the total damage to the country’s buildings and infrastructure from subsidence, as well as the cost to restore weak foundations, could top $22 billion, or 20 billion euros, by 2050.

What’s worse, the sinking may actually be contributing to climate change: A drop in the peat soil of just one centimeter results in the emission of about 9 tons of carbon dioxide per acre, says Gert Jan van den Born, a policy researcher at PBL. That accounts for a large part of overall CO2 emissions in the agricultural sector.

bookmark_borderScientists Declare Climate Emergency

Posted on by admin

Over 11,000 scientists have issued a warning over the climate crisis.

The American Institute of Biological Science published the report World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency.

Climate-Emergency

Scientists have a moral obligation to clearly warn humanity of any catastrophic threat and to “tell it like it is.” On the basis of this obligation and the graphical indicators presented below, we declare, with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from around the world, clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency.

The climate crisis is closely linked to excessive consumption of the wealthy lifestyle. The most affluent countries are mainly responsible for the historical GHG emissions and generally have the greatest per capita emissions (table S1). In the present article, we show general patterns, mostly at the global scale, because there are many climate efforts that involve individual regions and countries. Our vital signs are designed to be useful to the public, policymakers, the business community, and those working to implement the Paris climate agreement, the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

Profoundly troubling signs from human activities include sustained increases in both human and ruminant livestock populations, per capita meat production, world gross domestic product, global tree cover loss, fossil fuel consumption, the number of air passengers carried, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and per capita CO2 emissions since 2000 (figure 1, supplemental file S2). Encouraging signs include decreases in global fertility (birth) rates (figure 1b), decelerated forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon (figure 1g), increases in the consumption of solar and wind power (figure 1h), institutional fossil fuel divestment of more than US$7 trillion (figure 1j), and the proportion of GHG emissions covered by carbon pricing (figure 1m). However, the decline in human fertility rates has substantially slowed during the last 20 years (figure 1b), and the pace of forest loss in Brazil’s Amazon has now started to increase again (figure 1g). Consumption of solar and wind energy has increased 373% per decade, but in 2018, it was still 28 times smaller than fossil fuel consumption (combined gas, coal, oil; figure 1h). As of 2018, approximately 14.0% of global GHG emissions were covered by carbon pricing (figure 1m), but the global emissions-weighted average price per tonne of carbon dioxide was only around US$15.25 (figure 1n). A much higher carbon fee price is needed (IPCC 2018, section 2.5.2.1). Annual fossil fuel subsidies to energy companies have been fluctuating, and because of a recent spike, they were greater than US$400 billion in 2018 (figure 1o).

bookmark_borderThe Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Posted on by admin

The latest Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC)Special Report high lights the urgency of prioritizing timely, ambitious and coordinated action to address unprecedented and enduring changes in the ocean and cryosphere.

The report states the sea level is rising much faster than previously forecast. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns one billion people will be affected as soon as 2050 because of rising sea levels, water shortages and food insecurity.

SROCC Press Release ENGLISH

SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport

bookmark_borderThe Collapse Of Nature

Posted on by admin

Worldwide insect populations are in decline by as much as 80%. Insects are in a downward spiral threatening a “catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”, as reported by a global scientific review.

“Unless we change our ways of producing food, insects as a whole will go down the path of extinction in a few decades. The repercussions this will have for the planet’s ecosystems are catastrophic to say the least.”

The review was published in the journal Science Direct is entitled, “Worldwide decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers” by Francisco Sánchez-Bayo, Kris A.G.Wyckhuys, etal.

Highlights

• Over 40% of insect species are threatened with extinction.
• Lepidoptera, Hymenoptera and dung beetles (Coleoptera) are the taxa most affected.
• Four aquatic taxa are imperiled and have already lost a large proportion of species.
• Habitat loss by conversion to intensive agriculture is the main driver of the declines.
• Agro-chemical pollutants, invasive species and climate change are additional causes.

“If insect species losses cannot be halted, this will have catastrophic consequences for both the planet’s ecosystems and for the survival of mankind,” said Francisco Sánchez-Bayo.

“The main cause of the decline is agricultural intensification,” Sánchez-Bayo said. “That means the elimination of all trees and shrubs that normally surround the fields, so there are plain, bare fields that are treated with synthetic fertilisers and pesticides.”The demise of insects appears to have started at the beginning of the 20th century, accelerated during the 1950’s and 1960’s and reached “alarming proportions” over the last twenty years.

“If insect species losses cannot be halted, this will have catastrophic consequences for both the planet’s ecosystems and for the survival of mankind”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment