bookmark_borderDroughts and Rising Sea Levels

“There has been a 500% increase in the US drought area,” said Al Roker of the Today show while reporting on 2020 being tied for the hottest year.

The Washington Post reports, “Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021.” [1}

“The impact of desertification is intensifying due to climate change, which is reducing the availability of freshwater, fertile soil, and forest and vegetation. As the degraded land loses value, investments in agriculture and rural development decline even more.” — Ban Ki-moonUnited Nations Secretary-General [2}

This doesn’t have to do with drought episodes. It has to do with areas prone to having droughts. As the area of land that is prone to flooding is increasing exponentially, so too is the land prone to severe, long term drought. We make it even worse by pumping ground water out for agriculture. This depletes the aquifers. The result is sinking land and rising sea levels. The depleted fresh water is then intruded by salt water. Salt water intrusion has a severe impact on the world food supply.

So, you have rising seas above and below the land. Compounding the problem — water expands when it gets warmer. About 1/3 of the rise in sea level is due to thermal expansion of water. [Volumetric Thermal Expansion] The warmer sea water also melts sea ice. The ocean doesn’t reflect the energy the way ice does. In fact just he opposite, the ocean absorbs the heat… making the water warmer… melting more sea ice…. and warming the planet. Which melts the land ice, which raises the sea level. A vicious feedback cycle of fresh water depletion and sea level rise has been created.

Climate change is making weather events more extreme and more frequent. More severe droughts, more severe floods, etc. Energy is being added to the system. “Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in many parts of the United States and the world in the decades ahead. A changing climate can also alter atmospheric rivers (narrow streams of moisture transported in the atmosphere), which can especially disrupt precipitation patterns in the Western United States. Droughts can persist through a “positive feedback,” where very dry soils and diminished plant cover can further suppress rainfall in an already dry area.” [3]

“Risks from desertification are projected to increase due to climate change (high confidence). The combination of pressures coming from climate variability, anthropogenic climate change and desertification will contribute to poverty, food insecurity, and increased disease burden (high confidence).” [4]

1. Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021. (The Washington Post)
2. DESERTIFICaTION (United Nations)
3. Drought and Climate Change (Center for Energy and Climate Solutions)
4. SPECIAL REPORT: Climate Change and Land Desertification (International Panel on Climate Change)

bookmark_borderBark Beetles Killing Sequoias

The Guardian Reports: Beetles and fire kill dozens of ‘indestructible’ giant sequoia trees

Deadly interaction between insects, drought and fire damage have forced California’s park officials to trigger climate crisis plans intended for the 2050s

‘This is not how sequoias die. It’s supposed to stand for another 500 years’

Giant sequoia trees, the largest living organisms on the planet – some more than three millennia old – have started dying from beetle attacks linked to the climate emergency, the preliminary findings of a new study have revealed.

The deaths of the trees, some of which lived through the rise and fall of hundreds of empires, caliphates and kingdoms – not to mention the inauguration of every US president – have shocked researchers in their speed and novelty.

In Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks in the Sierra Nevada, California, 28 giant sequoias have died from a seemingly deadly interaction between bark beetles, drought and fire damage since 2014, according to a joint National Park Service and US Geological Survey study that will be published later this year.

bookmark_borderWill Tree Species Survive Climate Change?

A Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources article reported:

The theory of evolution suggests that species will adapt to changing environmental conditions. The belief is that these changes occur over long periods of geologic time.

But, instead of warming over a period of 1,000 years, the climate is changing faster due to human activity — several degrees per century (100 years).

Due to the rate of climate change, the gradual natural selection of genetic traits that allow species to adapt and reproduce over time may not be enough to preserve the abundance of tree species in Pennsylvania.

Some tree species won’t be able to thrive here as the climate continues to change faster than the plants can adapt.

Northern species like mountain maple, American beech, balsam fir, paper birch, and quaking aspen are especially at risk. Our climate may warm too quickly for these species to adapt before dying out.

Yet, warming due to climate change is not the only threat to the commonwealth’s trees.

Wetter Conditions Impact Many Tree Species

Raining.jpg
Rainy day in Penn’s Woods.

Last year (2018), many areas of the state set records for number of days of rain and total annual rainfall.

Climate change scientists forecasted that the northeastern U.S. climate would become not only warmer, but wetter — which is be proving to be true.

Since 1991, heavy rain events have increased more than 30 percent when compared to the 1901-1960 period. (source: National Climate Assessment)

Many Pennsylvania tree species do not thrive in continuous soggy conditions; and could significantly decline across the state over the long term.

The American mountain ash is a species which may suffer double risk due to its northern habit and upland site preference.

Given current climate trends and future considerations, it wouldn’t make much sense to plant northern/upland species.

A more practical strategy would be to choose climate change-resilient trees to replace those we lose.

Climate Change-Resilient Trees for Pennsylvania

Climate change-resilient trees for Pennsylvania should be southern tree species that tolerate or prefer wetter soil.

Species meeting these criteria include:

  • Sycamore
  • Hackberry
  • Boxelder
  • Eastern redbud

hackberry.JPG
Bark of Hackberry tree.

IMG_0524 (2).jpg
Spring blooms on Eastern redbud tree.

Suitable trees for a warming climate, but well-drained sites include several oak and hickory varieties:

  • Pin oak
  • Black oak
  • Shagbark hickory
  • Mockernut hickory

Other adaptable species likely to be climate change-resilient include:

  • Slippery elm
  • Black gum
  • Shortleaf pine
  • Eastern hophornbeam

New Thinking in Forest Management

Tree Planting.jpg
Newly planted trees in forest.

Climate change doesn’t mean the end of Penn’s Woods, but it does require new thinking when examining what tree species we should plant.

Savvy growers may want to think about choosing trees with fungal and insect resistance — as some southern pests are moving northward.

Climate change caused by human activities will outpace some native trees’ ability to adapt and persist.

Wise choices for replacements could be part of the solution to ensure that our forests remain healthy, viable, and productive.

For more information about climate change predictions for tree species, see Appendix E in DCNR’s Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan (PDF).

Foliage Spoilage & the Trees’ Canopy Collapse

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe Collapse Of Nature

Worldwide insect populations are in decline by as much as 80%. Insects are in a downward spiral threatening a “catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”, as reported by a global scientific review.

“Unless we change our ways of producing food, insects as a whole will go down the path of extinction in a few decades. The repercussions this will have for the planet’s ecosystems are catastrophic to say the least.”

The review was published in the journal Science Direct is entitled, “Worldwide decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers” by Francisco Sánchez-Bayo, Kris A.G.Wyckhuys, etal.

Highlights

• Over 40% of insect species are threatened with extinction.
• Lepidoptera, Hymenoptera and dung beetles (Coleoptera) are the taxa most affected.
• Four aquatic taxa are imperiled and have already lost a large proportion of species.
• Habitat loss by conversion to intensive agriculture is the main driver of the declines.
• Agro-chemical pollutants, invasive species and climate change are additional causes.

“If insect species losses cannot be halted, this will have catastrophic consequences for both the planet’s ecosystems and for the survival of mankind,” said Francisco Sánchez-Bayo.

“The main cause of the decline is agricultural intensification,” Sánchez-Bayo said. “That means the elimination of all trees and shrubs that normally surround the fields, so there are plain, bare fields that are treated with synthetic fertilisers and pesticides.”The demise of insects appears to have started at the beginning of the 20th century, accelerated during the 1950’s and 1960’s and reached “alarming proportions” over the last twenty years.

“If insect species losses cannot be halted, this will have catastrophic consequences for both the planet’s ecosystems and for the survival of mankind”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderWhy “Fresh Air and Sunshine” is Dangerous

By Daniel Brouse

Q: Do you know what are two of the most dangerous exposures for children and the elderly?
A: Fresh air and sunshine. Either may be hazardous; however, when fresh air and sunshine are combined, the result can be extreme.

On days like today, do not go out and play.

The sun can damage your skin and cause cancer. Air pollution causes many health risks, too.


Fresh Air + Sunshine = Dangerous

Sunshine is also part of a deadly reaction. When combined with heat and volatile gases in the air, ultraviolet light causes a deadly reaction. The result is tropospheric ozone.

The dangerous ozone (O3) is created when vehicle (and other) exhaust is not completely combusted. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in the exhaust react to temperature and sunlight creating tropospheric ozone (O3).

The ozone in the air can cause permanent damage to your respiratory and immune systems. Millions of micro-explosions enter through your mouth and nose (and to some extent eyes, ears and skin)… then, if lucky, complete their short lives in your lungs. (NOTE: Lucky, for the length of their life. Unlucky, for the length of yours.)

bookmark_borderWARNING! Hold Your Breath / Air Quality Alert

By Daniel Brouse

Many days in the Philadelphia region are not healthy for breathing. On “Ozone Action Alert Days” you are advised to avoid outside activities. Children should not play outdoors. Avoid running and other fitness activities. Do not breathe in unconditioned air. Low level ozone is volatile and causes micro-explosions in your lungs that result in chronic respiratory and immune system damage. The more and harder you breathe, the more damage you cause to your body. Avoid exercise.

Pollution is the leading cause of death and illness. Low level (tropospheric) ozone is a major contributor to air pollution diseases.

Also see: “Why Fresh Air + Sunshine = Dangerous”

View the current air quality for Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Region started the season with three Action Alert days in a row.

June 13, 2017

Dangerous Air Quality / June 13, 2017
Dangerous Air Quality / June 13, 2017

June 12, 2017

Unhealthy Air Quality June 12, 2017
Unhealthy Air Quality June 12, 2017

June 11, 2017

Unhealthy Air Quality June 11, 2017
Unhealthy Air Quality June 11, 2017

NOTE: Graphics are from the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency of the United States of America)

Death By Ozone | The Ozone Know Zone

Ozone is not only killing humans, it is also killing the trees. The chain reaction is known as an adverse feedback loop.

Dying Trees, The Membrane Domain

  1. Tree Death Questions
  2. The Earth’s Status
  3. Answers About Ozone and Dying Trees
  4. Ozone Questions Part 4
  5. Ozone Answers Part 5

bookmark_borderLosing 10 Billion Trees Per Year

Part of the study Foliage Spoilage & the Trees’ Canopy Collapse

Thomas Crowther is a Yale Climate & Energy Institute postdoctoral fellow at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES) and led a study and census of the world’s trees (2015). The study determined there are 3 trillion trees on Earth; however, the study also estimates we are losing 10 billion trees per year.

 

bookmark_borderTrees: Sudden Oak Death “Unstoppable”

A new report out of Cambridge University has determined that the sudden oak death epidemic in California is unstoppable.

“Sudden oak death – caused by Phytophthora ramorum, a fungus-like pathogen related to potato blight – has killed millions of trees over hundreds of square kilometres of forest in California. First detected near San Francisco in 1995, it spread north through coastal California, devastating the region’s iconic oak and tanoak forests.”

“Our study is the first major retrospective analysis of how the sudden oak death epidemic in California could have been managed, and also the first to show how to deal with a forest epidemic of this magnitude,” explains Cunniffe.

“Even if huge amounts of money were to be invested to stop the epidemic starting today, the results of our model show this cannot lead to successful control for any plausible management budget. We therefore wanted to know whether it could have been contained if a carefully-optimised strategy had been introduced sooner. Our model showed that, with a very high level of investment starting in 2002, the disease could not have been eradicated, but its spread could have been slowed and the area affected greatly reduced.”

The model also indicates how policymakers might better plan and deploy control when future epidemics emerge.

“It is a tool by which we can make a better job next time, because it is inevitable that there will be a next time,” says Professor Chris Gilligan, senior author and also from the Department of Plant Sciences. “With this sort of epidemic there will always be more sites to treat than can be afforded. Our model shows when and where control is most effective at different stages throughout a developing epidemic so that resources can be better targeted.”

“It can be tempting for authorities to start cutting down trees at the core of the infected area, but for this epidemic our research shows that this could be the worst thing to do, because susceptible vegetation will simply grow back and become infected again,” explains Cunniffe.

More about Deforestation and Tree Death

bookmark_borderClimate Change Health Hazard

Physicians For Social Responsibility report:

High in the Earth’s atmosphere, naturally occurring ozone is essential to protecting life on Earth from the harmful ultraviolet rays of the sun. However, here on Earth’s surface, ground-level ozone is a harmful pollutant.

Source of Ozone: Ground-level ozone is formed when two major classes of air pollutants — nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) — combine with oxygen in the presence of sunlight. VOCs are emitted naturally by plant life, and also by human industrial activity: from coal combustion in power plants, from chemical plants, gasoline, oil-based paints, and auto body and print shops. Nitrogen oxides result primarily from fossil fuel combustion in power plants, industrial furnaces and boilers, and motor vehicles.

Ozone and Climate Change: Scientists have found that higher temperatures accelerate the reaction between nitrogen oxides and VOCs, creating more ozone. By 2050, climate change alone is projected to increase summertime ozone concentrations by 2 to 8 parts per billion from today’s concentrations.

Health Impacts: Ground-level ozone is associated with many respiratory and cardiovascular ailments and is harmful even to healthy people. Breathing in high ozone levels causes an effect that has been likened to “sunburn of the lungs.” It can create difficulty breathing, aggravation of asthma, development of new cases of asthma, emphysema, chronic bronchitis, and pneumonia.

Ozone can also affect the heart, leading to cardiac arrhythmia and heart attacks. It can also increase the number of low birth-weight babies in mothers exposed to high levels during pregnancy.

Health-related costs of climate change effects on ozone air pollution have been estimated at $6.5 billion annually, nationwide.

Ozone can also impact human health by inhibiting photosynthesis and plant growth, thus reducing yields from food crops.

Health Advice for Bad Air Days: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses an air quality index to rank the day’s ozone levels from good to very unhealthy. Levels are highest on hot, sunny days and are exacerbated by traffic and nearby industry. People with lung disease, including asthma, children, and the elderly are advised to limit outdoor activity when levels reach a ranking over 100.

More About Death By Ozone

bookmark_border12.5 Million Dead Trees in California

CALIFORNIA — In a survey conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, they found the severe drought in California has caused the death of over 12 million trees.

California is in its third year of drought. In 2014, a large increase in tree mortality was observed, especially in the Central Coast and Southern Sierra Ranges. Ground observations noted a continued increase in mortality after the 2014 surveys were flown in July. Early season aerial surveys were conducted in the spring of 2015 in response to the continuing drought and the resulting tree mortality. Another early survey over portions of Southern California was flown the week of April 6th.
• More than 4.1 million acres were surveyed; covering western portions of Stanislaus, Sierra and Sequoia National Forests and Yosemite and Sequoia – Kings Canyon National Parks. The Tehachapi Range and nearby private lands were also surveyed.
• In general mortality was quite severe in many pine species especially in ponderosa and pinyon at lower elevations and more southern areas.
• Along thefoothills mortality was often widespread and severe especially in ponderosa but also gray pine and likely blue and live oak. It unknown if the oaks that were mapped were truly dead or had died back/defoliated due to the drought.
• On the Stanislaus, mortality was scattered in northern areas, but pockets of severe ponderosa and other pine mortality were seen in the  southern low areas. Mortality roughly doubled since July 2014 in the areas of the Stanislaus that were resurveyed this spring.
• At higher elevations conifer mortality was scattered. The survey was too early to detect full extent of mortality levels and anemic levels of snow were common.
• On the Sierra and Sequoia NF pine mortality, mostly from western pine beetle, was common and severe almost everywhere at lower elevations. Estimated number of trees killed on these two Forests together exceeded 5 million. Only about 300,000 trees were estimated killed last year in the same area.
• Southeastern portions of the Sequoia NF and Wilderness areas further east were also flown and widespread, at times, intense pinyon mortality was observed.
• On the Tehachapi Range and on private lands along the foothills of the Sierras, extensive areas of pine mortality were common. Large areas of oak mortality was also suspect.
Dead Pine Trees in California
Dead Pine Trees in California