Category: Global Warming

bookmark_borderInflation Update: Auto Insurance

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse

In recent inflation reports, homeowners’ insurance, wages, and auto insurance have emerged as primary drivers contributing to the persistence of inflation. The inflationary pressures on auto insurance have been further exacerbated by two key factors:

1) Collision coverage: The prevalence of accidents caused by distracted driving, particularly due to cell phone usage, continues to rise. Distracted driving significantly impacts insurance premiums, as the heightened accident rate results in increased claims for insurers to process.

2) Comprehensive coverage: There has been a notable surge in weather and climate-related claims, including incidents such as floods, fires, hailstorms, and falling debris. These natural disasters contribute significantly to insurance claims, necessitating higher payouts from insurers.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

bookmark_borderClimate Change, Inflation, and You

Posted on by admin

Currently, a major contributor to inflation is the surge in homeowners’ insurance costs, propelled by the unprecedented number of climate disasters in 2023. California, Louisiana, and Florida are now dependent on government assistance to manage the financial burden of residential property insurance.

Flood insurance will become expensive and difficult to obtain.

NOAA: A historic year of U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters

In 2023, the U.S. experienced 28 separate weather and climate disasters costing at least 1 billion dollars. That number puts 2023 into first place for the highest number of billion-dollar disasters in a calendar year and included:

  • 1 winter storm/cold wave event (across the northeast U.S. in early-February).
  • 1 wildfire event (firestorm destroying town of Lahaina on Maui Island of Hawaii).
  • 1 drought and heat wave event (focused across the central and southern U.S.).
  • 4 flooding events (in California, Florida, and across the eastern and northeastern U.S.).
  • 2 tornado outbreaks (across the central and eastern U.S.).
  • 2 tropical cyclones (Idalia in Florida and Typhoon Mawar in Guam).
  • 17 severe weather/hail events (across many parts of the country).

2023 was also deadly, causing at least 492 direct or indirect fatalities — the 8th most disaster-related fatalities for the contiguous U.S. since 1980.

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

What Can I Do?
There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. Be a butterfly and affect the world. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.

Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

bookmark_borderClimate Change Today

Posted on by admin

By Daniel Brouse
March 23, 2024

We are aware that the average temperature increased by 1.2°C by 2022. Subsequently, the annual average temperature exceeded 1.5°C for the first time in January 2024. There is a substantial likelihood that if humans persist in emitting greenhouse gases at the current rate, the temperature will rise by 4°C within this century. Furthermore, in 2023, seven tipping points were surpassed, triggering a chain reaction of feedback loops. While the precise amounts of carbon and methane stored in nature remain uncertain, a conservative estimate suggests a temperature rise of 3-6 degrees is inevitable. This century is marked by an unavoidable and irreversible increase in sea levels. However, if we alter our behaviors, we could potentially cap the increase at 4-5°C and extend the timeline to the year 2300. Although we lack exact figures for the speed and severity, we possess a comprehensive model with numerous known variables. In essence, while acknowledging that challenges lie ahead, there is an opportunity for mitigation through substantial changes in our practices.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Camelot’s Resurgence

Posted on by admin

Camelot’s Resurgence: A Musical Odyssey Through Mythical Metaphors of Climate Change at the Round Table

The legend of King Arthur, the Round Table, and Camelot can be metaphorically related to human-induced climate change in various ways:

  1. Unified Effort and Global Cooperation:
    • Metaphor: The Round Table represents equality and unity among Arthur’s knights, highlighting the idea of collaboration and shared responsibility.
    • Climate Change Connection: Addressing climate change requires global cooperation and shared efforts. The metaphor suggests that, like the knights gathered around the Round Table, nations need to unite in facing the common challenge of climate change.
  2. Camelot as a Sustainable Utopia:
    • Metaphor: Camelot is often portrayed as an idealized, utopian kingdom where justice, equality, and chivalry prevail.
    • Climate Change Connection: The metaphor implies that addressing climate change requires envisioning and striving for sustainable and environmentally conscious societies. Camelot serves as a symbol for the kind of world we should aim to create to mitigate the impact of climate change.
  3. The Sword in the Stone as Responsibility:
    • Metaphor: Arthur pulling the sword from the stone signifies his acceptance of responsibility and destiny as the rightful king.
    • Climate Change Connection: The metaphor can be linked to the acknowledgment of the responsibility humans hold in causing and mitigating climate change. Just as Arthur takes up the responsibility of leading, humanity must take responsibility for its impact on the environment.
  4. The Betrayal of Lancelot and Guinevere as Human Failings:
    • Metaphor: The affair between Lancelot and Guinevere, leading to Camelot’s downfall, represents the betrayal and moral failings of individuals within the kingdom.
    • Climate Change Connection: The metaphor reflects the human tendencies that contribute to environmental degradation, such as exploitation of natural resources, overconsumption, and the neglect of sustainable practices.
  5. Mordred’s Betrayal as Ignoring Warning Signs:
    • Metaphor: Mordred’s betrayal, often driven by a thirst for power, represents the consequences of ignoring warning signs and neglecting the environment.
    • Climate Change Connection: The metaphor aligns with the consequences of ignoring early warnings and scientific evidence regarding climate change. Human actions, driven by short-term interests, can lead to irreversible damage.

In summary, the King Arthur legend serves as a metaphor for the collective human experience in facing challenges like climate change. It emphasizes the importance of unity, responsibility, sustainability, and the consequences of moral failings and neglect.

From the album: Camelot’s Resurgence

bookmark_borderAbout the Membrane Domain

Posted on by admin

This website was established by a diverse group, including musicians, writers, computer wizards, businessmen, videots, and individuals with a keen interest. We named this collective effort “The Philadelphia Spirit Experiment.”

PHILADELPHIA? Frustrated with outdated systems and unsuccessful attempts to change them, we chose to take action — perhaps in the spirit of our forefathers?

SPIRIT? The aim of the spirit experiment is to leverage R&D (research and development of business/art/science models) to directly contribute to preserving mankind. Can we help reintroduce the “kind” into mankind by replacing formalized formulas? Our goal is to infuse life with spirit.

Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global warming is a consequence of elevated thermal energy in the climate system, which comprises various subsystems. Chaos theory underscores the intricate and nonlinear nature of dynamic systems. Human well-being is compromised above a 1.5-degree temperature rise, rendering much of the Earth uninhabitable. A 9-degree Celsius increase would bring the Earth close to a wet-bulb temperature incapable of sustaining human life.

What Can I Do? There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.

What you can do today. How to save the planet.

A RADICAL APPROACH? Our approach draws on past experiences to make the present count for tomorrow—a radical notion, albeit one focused on positive change.

This concept is put into action (or lack of action) through music, publishing, business, moving pictures, and more. The original idea gained popularity, leading to the development of a domain centered around altruism.

Whether you choose to participate or simply educate yourself, we hope your time here is enjoyable at The Membrane Domain.

The web is an extension of our dynamic approach — it is alive. Each visit can offer a completely different experience. Please feel free to explore as often as you like. If you encounter bad “links” or spelling errors, we appreciate your feedback.

Should you need assistance during your visit, click on PANIC! / PANIC! to connect with a human. Regardless of your issue or question, don’t hesitate to reach out.

Thank you for your attention. We hope you grasp the essence of our intentions. If you’re ready, enter the Lyon’s Den — the labyrinth of the Membrane Domain.

Sincerely,
C. Moore
Philosopher

bookmark_borderEarth’s Vital Signs

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse

Earth
Earth

Human-induced climate change serves as a dynamic and intricate component within an unordered system, guided by chaos theory. This suggests that global warming is undergoing exponential acceleration in a complex manner. The pace at which climate change is accelerating can be described as rapid, as evident in the intensity, duration, and likelihood of climate disasters. Drawing insights from the 2023 Canada wildfires, the World Weather Attribution Organization reported, “Climate change made the cumulative severity of Quebec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur.”

Key Findings: Extreme weather and climate-related disasters have become 50% more intense and 7 times more likely.

In the 20th century, Earth’s surface temperature averaged 13.9℃. However, in the initial weeks of July 2023, the average temperature surged to 17℃. Human activities have propelled global temperatures more than 3℃ for parts of the year, with the entire period from February 2023 to February 2024 registering 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels. A rise of 1.5 degrees already compromises human well-being, making much of the Earth uninhabitable.

As of 2024, humanity has surpassed seven critical tipping points, including Mountain Glacier Loss, Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse, Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse, AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) Collapse, Amazon Rainforest Dieback, Coral Reef Die-Off, and Northern Permafrost Collapse. Crossing these tipping points triggers self-sustaining feedback loops independent of human activity. While the exact carbon stored in nature remains uncertain, an assumption could be made that temperatures might surge from 3 to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Thriving beyond a 1.5-degree rise becomes impossible for humans. If an additional 3 degrees Celsius is added, the temperature and humidity would approach a wet-bulb temperature unsuitable for human life.

What Can I Do?
There exist numerous actions individuals can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and influence the world.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change: What Can I Do?

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

Achieving “net zero” is not only accessible but also cost-effective, providing substantial savings while contributing to the preservation of our planet. Here are some practices I’ve adopted to reach net zero without compromising my standard of living, and, in fact, surpassing it in an effort to eliminate all my pollution. The simplest way to commence this journey is through energy conservation. Be mindful of your energy usage, refrain from unnecessary consumption, turn off devices when not in use, and opt for low-energy products.

  1. Consume less. Consumer habits have played a significant role in damaging the world’s environment and economies. The insatiable demands of mass consumption have led to the exploitation of natural resources and the emission of pollution and greenhouse gases. In many instances, it’s feasible to choose not to consume certain products entirely. Travel, fashion, and meat are examples of areas where consumption could be minimized. Reducing overall consumption is the most impactful individual contribution towards eliminating pollution and mitigating the effects of climate change. The critical aspect of reducing consumption is to cease burning fossil fuels and using hydrocarbon products immediately. (Hydrocarbons encompass plastics, polymers, petroleum, and natural gas.)
  2. Electricity and heat are leading contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Select an electric company that relies on nuclear, solar, and/or wind generation.
  • Insulate your house (Be cautious not to over-insulate, as indoor pollution can be as concerning as outdoor pollution. An air-tight house requires an air exchange system with a meticulous filter maintenance program.)
  • Zone heat: In winter, maintain your main temperature at 50 degrees Fahrenheit and only heat the room you are occupying to a comfortable level (e.g., 68 degrees). Dress warmly.
  • Install an air-to-air heat exchanger and humidity exchanger (Note: Humidity is as crucial as temperature.)
  • Plant shade trees to reduce the need for central air.
  • Plant windscreens, such as evergreens.
  1. Food and land use constitute the second-largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Consume less meat.
  • Minimize the transportation of food by choosing local products.
  • Cultivate your own garden and windowsill gardens.
  • Plant trees, with a focus on preserving old-growth.
  • Reduce impervious surfaces.
  1. Transportation represents the third-largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Purchase an electric vehicle (EV) or a high MPG manual transmission vehicle (I achieve 50 MPG in a 4-wheel drive SUV with a 6-speed.)
  • Make fewer trips, use public transportation, and minimize air travel.

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

What Can I Do?
There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.
Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

bookmark_borderCoral Reefs’ Tipping Point

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
February 14, 2024

Coral reefs confront unprecedented challenges arising from various stressors, many of which are directly tied to human activities. Some of these stressors possess critical tipping points, surpassing which can lead to the collapse of coral ecosystems. According to the European Geosciences Union’s statement on January 2, 2024, specific tipping points include a temperature increase of 1.2℃ above pre-industrial levels and atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeding 350 parts per million. Disturbingly, as of February 2024, the Earth’s yearly average temperature has already risen to +1.5℃, underscoring the urgency of addressing climate-related threats to coral reefs.

Climate change is having significant and detrimental effects on coral reefs around the world. Some of the key impacts include:

  1. Coral Bleaching:
    • One of the most immediate and visible impacts of climate change on coral reefs is coral bleaching. Elevated sea temperatures cause corals to expel the symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) living within their tissues. Without these algae, corals lose their vibrant colors and become more susceptible to stress, disease, and death. While corals can recover from mild bleaching events, severe or prolonged bleaching can lead to widespread coral mortality.
  2. Ocean Acidification:
    • Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere not only contribute to global warming but also lead to ocean acidification. The absorption of excess CO2 by the oceans results in a decrease in pH, making the water more acidic. This acidification can weaken coral skeletons and hinder the ability of corals to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures.
  3. Sea Level Rise:
    • Rising global temperatures contribute to the melting of polar ice caps and glaciers, causing sea levels to rise. Elevated sea levels can lead to increased stress on coral reefs, especially those located in shallow waters. This can result in reduced sunlight reaching the corals and increased sedimentation, impacting their growth and survival.
  4. Extreme Weather Events:
    • Climate change is linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and cyclones. These events can physically damage coral reefs by causing coral breakage, dislodgment, and destruction of the reef structure. The recovery time for damaged reefs is often extended, making them more vulnerable to subsequent disturbances.
  5. Changes in Ocean Circulation:
    • Climate change can alter ocean currents and circulation patterns. Changes in water flow can affect the distribution of nutrients and impact the resilience of coral reefs. Some regions may experience altered temperature regimes, nutrient imbalances, and disruptions in the supply of food sources for corals and their associated ecosystems.
  6. Shifts in Coral Species Distribution:
    • As sea temperatures change and habitats are modified, the distribution of coral species may shift. Some species may migrate to cooler waters, while others may struggle to adapt or face local extinctions. These shifts can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and affect the biodiversity associated with coral reefs.

The cumulative impact of these climate-related stressors poses a severe threat to coral reefs worldwide. It’s crucial to address the root causes of climate change and implement conservation measures to enhance the resilience of coral ecosystems. Protection of coral reefs involves both local and global efforts, including sustainable fishing practices, marine protected areas, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and promoting coral reef restoration initiatives.

Coral reef ecosystems can be influenced by several feedback loops that contribute to reaching tipping points. These feedback loops often involve interactions between various environmental stressors and the responses of coral reefs. Here are some feedback loops associated with the coral reef tipping point:

  1. Coral Bleaching Feedback Loop:
    • Mechanism: Elevated sea temperatures, driven by climate change, can trigger coral bleaching, where corals expel their symbiotic algae.
    • Effect: As bleaching occurs, corals become stressed and more susceptible to diseases. If bleaching is severe or occurs frequently, it weakens coral resilience and can lead to widespread coral mortality, reducing the ability of the reef to recover.
  2. Ocean Acidification and Coral Growth Feedback Loop:
    • Mechanism: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) leads to ocean acidification, hindering the ability of corals to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures.
    • Effect: Weakened coral skeletons make corals more vulnerable to physical damage and limit their capacity to recover from disturbances. This feedback loop can contribute to a decline in overall coral reef health.
  3. Storm Damage and Reef Structure Feedback Loop:
    • Mechanism: Intense tropical storms, hurricanes, or cyclones, influenced by climate change, can cause physical damage to coral reefs.
    • Effect: Damaged coral structures provide less protection for the reef against future storms. If storms become more frequent or severe, the cumulative impact can compromise the structural integrity of the reef and hinder recovery.
  4. Overfishing and Algae Overgrowth Feedback Loop:
    • Mechanism: Overfishing of herbivorous fish, such as parrotfish, reduces their population, leading to increased algae growth on coral reefs.
    • Effect: Algae can outcompete corals for space, hindering coral growth and recovery. Reduced herbivory exacerbates the overgrowth of algae, creating a feedback loop that undermines the resilience of the coral reef ecosystem.
  5. Disease Spread and Coral Health Feedback Loop:
    • Mechanism: Climate change and environmental stressors can weaken coral health, making them more susceptible to diseases.
    • Effect: As diseases spread among stressed corals, the overall health of the reef declines. Weakened corals are less able to withstand additional stressors, leading to a feedback loop of declining health and increased vulnerability.
  6. Loss of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function Feedback Loop:
    • Mechanism: Environmental stressors, such as coral bleaching and disease, can lead to the loss of key species and a decline in overall biodiversity on the reef.
    • Effect: A reduction in biodiversity weakens the resilience and functioning of the coral reef ecosystem. This can create a feedback loop where the loss of key species further compromises the ability of the reef to recover from disturbances.

Mitigating these feedback loops requires comprehensive conservation strategies, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, implementing sustainable fishing practices, establishing marine protected areas, and addressing local stressors to enhance the resilience of coral reefs.

ALSO SEE:

Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet / Mukherjee and Brouse (2022 and 2023)

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now / Mukherjee and Brouse (2023)

Feedback Loops / Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee (2016)

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change Wildfires

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

About the 2023 wildfires in Hawaii, Governor Josh Green said, “For perspective, we’ve had six fire emergencies this August, we had six fire emergencies between 1953 and 2003. That’s how- how fast things are changing. I know that there is debate out there whether we should be talking about climate change or not. Well, let’s be real world, climate change is here we are in the midst of it with a hotter planet, and fiercer storms.”

Climate change is contributing to the increased intensity and frequency of wildfires through a combination of factors that create favorable conditions for wildfires to ignite, spread, and become more destructive. Here are some key ways in which climate change influences wildfires:

  1. Higher Temperatures:
    • Impact: Rising global temperatures increase the likelihood of extreme heat events.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Higher temperatures contribute to drier conditions, leading to increased evaporation and moisture loss from vegetation. Dry and hot conditions provide a more conducive environment for wildfires to ignite and spread.
  2. Drought Conditions:
    • Impact: Changes in precipitation patterns and prolonged droughts are linked to climate change.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Drought conditions result in dry vegetation, making it more susceptible to ignition. Reduced soil moisture levels also contribute to the flammability of ecosystems.
  3. Changing Rainfall Patterns:
    • Impact: Climate change alters regional rainfall patterns, leading to more intense rainfall in some areas and prolonged dry spells in others.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Areas experiencing reduced rainfall may face prolonged dry seasons, creating conditions favorable for wildfires. Intense rainfall in certain regions can lead to the growth of vegetation, which later dries out and becomes potential fuel for fires.
  4. Warming Winters:
    • Impact: Warmer winter temperatures can affect snowpack and contribute to earlier snowmelt.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Reduced snowpack and earlier snowmelt can result in drier soil and vegetation earlier in the year, extending the wildfire season and increasing the period of vulnerability to fire ignition.
  5. Extended Fire Season:
    • Impact: Changes in climate contribute to longer and more intense fire seasons.
    • Effect on Wildfires: A longer fire season means that conditions conducive to wildfires persist for a more extended period, increasing the likelihood of ignition and the potential for wildfires to become larger and more destructive.
  6. Insect Infestations:
    • Impact: Warmer temperatures allow for the proliferation of certain insects, such as bark beetles.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Insect-infested trees become more susceptible to disease and wildfire. Dead and dry trees contribute to the fuel load, increasing the intensity and spread of wildfires.
  7. Wind Patterns:
    • Impact: Changes in climate can influence wind patterns.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Changes in wind patterns can contribute to the rapid spread of wildfires. Strong winds can carry embers over long distances, leading to the ignition of new areas.
  8. Thawing Permafrost:
    • Impact: Warming temperatures contribute to the thawing of permafrost.
    • Effect on Wildfires: Thawing permafrost releases stored carbon, creating flammable conditions. It can also lead to changes in vegetation types, altering fuel availability for wildfires.

The combination of these factors creates a feedback loops, where more intense and frequent wildfires release large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to further climate change. This cycle reinforces the importance of addressing both the causes and consequences of climate change to mitigate the impact on wildfire risk. While the beautiful sunsets during forest fires create captivating visuals, it’s essential to recognize the environmental and health impacts associated with wildfires. Wildfires can cause significant damage to ecosystems, contribute to air pollution, and pose risks to human health. The mesmerizing sunsets are a visible reminder of the interconnectedness of atmospheric processes and the far-reaching effects of natural events like wildfires.

In addition to the carbon feedback loop (the carbon emissions of Canada’s fires outweighed the combined emissions from its oil and gas, transport and agriculture sectors), the fires also cause the melting of the permafrost and zombie fires to burn in the permafrost. The permafrost collapse is a self-sustaining feedback loop/tipping point. As the permafrost melts, the peatlands emit CO2 and methane. The increase in CO2 and methane results in more warming that results in more peatland emissions. A third feedback loop is created with lightning strikes. The study Forests at Risk Due to Lightning Fires found a sensitivity of extratropical intact forests to potential increases in lightning fires, which would have far-reaching consequences for terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity. The results show that, on a global scale, lightning is the primary ignition source of fires in temperate and boreal forests. Global warming causes more extreme weather events and conditions for lightning creating more forest fires that create more warming and more lightning strikes.

The study Wildfire as a major driver of recent permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands published in the Journal Nature Communications found wildfires have caused a quarter of permafrost thaw (2,000 square kilometres) in Western Canada’s boreal peatlands over the past 30 years. “Historically, permafrost in this area underwent a natural cycle of thawing and reforming, but given current climate conditions and projections for the future, this fire-induced thaw appears to be irreversible,” said Carolyn Gibson, who conducted the research.

On January 1, 2024, the article, Why Are Alaska’s Rivers Turning Orange?, was published in Scientific America. “Streams in Alaska are turning orange with iron and sulfuric acid. Scientists who have studied these rusting rivers agree that the ultimate cause is climate change. Kobuk Valley National Park has warmed by 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.32 degrees Fahrenheit) since 2006 and could get another 10.2 degrees C hotter by 2100, a greater increase than projected for any other national park. The heat may already have begun to thaw 40 percent of the park’s permafrost, the layer of earth just under the topsoil that normally remains frozen year-round. McPhee wanted to protect the Salmon River because humans had ‘not yet begun to change it.’ Now, less than 50 years later, we have done just that. The last great wilderness in America, which by law is supposed to be ‘untrammeled by man,’ is being trammeled from afar by our global emissions.”

NASA reported: Wildland fire experts have described Canada’s 2023 fire season as record-breaking and shocking. Over the course of a fire season that started early and ended late, blazes have burned an estimated 18.4 million hectares. Hundreds of fires exceeded 10,000 hectares (39 square miles), large enough to be considered “megafires.” These megafires were also unusually widespread this season, charring forests from British Columbia and Alberta in the west to Quebec and the Atlantic provinces in the east to the Northwest Territories and the Yukon in the north.

Though the rate of change in climate disasters’ intensity, duration, and likelihood vary according to the type of extreme weather, a “rule-of-thumb” can be derived from the Canada wildfires of 2023. The World Weather Attribution Organization found, “Climate change made the cumulative severity of Quebec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur.”

50% more intense
7 x more likely

Sidd said, “Do you remember back in the early 2000’s when we thought we wouldn’t live to see the extreme changes due to global warming?”

Daniel replied, “I think 2023 is the most significant year so far. We saw confirmation of tipping points being crossed for Mountain Glacier Loss, Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse, Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse, and potentially the Collapse of AMOC.”

Sidd continued, “We already knew that. It was Canada catching on fire that I could not believe. I never thought I’d live to see the day.”

Daniel asked, “Do you think the permafrost and peatlands will have zombie fires and cause the permafrost tipping point?”

Sidd responded, “Yes. They are gone, too. We already know from the permafrost peatland fires in Siberia.”

Daniel ponders, “Hmmmm… I guess that means my plan went up in smoke? My worst case scenario / last resort emergency plan was to escape to Canada.”

ALSO SEE:
How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change? Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)
The Long-term Breathing Experiment / Brouse (2023)
Health Impacts of Air Pollution / Brouse (2023)
Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Tree Extinction Due to Human Induced Environmental Stress / Mukherjee and Brouse (2005)
Soil Degradation and Desertification / Brouse (2024)
Create a Climate-Resilient Environment in and Around Your Home / Brouse (2024)

 

bookmark_borderHow is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

Posted on by admin

By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

Climate change poses risks to real estate in the United States in various ways, and these risks can affect property values, insurance costs, and overall property resilience. Here are some ways in which all US real estate is at risk from climate change:

  1. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Properties:
    • Coastal properties are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. As sea levels continue to rise due to global warming, properties near coastlines may experience increased flooding and damage from more frequent and severe storms. Storm surges in Florida are an example.
  2. Extreme Weather Events:
    • Climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts. Properties in regions prone to these events are at risk of damage, destruction, and increased insurance costs.
  3. Temperature Extremes:
    • Rising temperatures can lead to more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, affecting property infrastructure, energy demand, and potentially decreasing property values in areas with extreme heat.
  4. Changes in Precipitation Patterns:
    • Changes in precipitation patterns, including increased violent rainfall or prolonged droughts, can impact properties by causing flooding, landslides, or water scarcity. These changes may affect property values and increase maintenance costs.
  5. Wildfires:
    • Increased temperatures and changing precipitation patterns contribute to the risk of wildfires. Properties in wildfire-prone areas face threats to both their physical structures and the surrounding environment.
  6. Homeowners and Flood Insurance Costs:
    • Flood insurance will become expensive and difficult to obtain. Climate-related risks can lead to higher insurance premiums and deductibles, particularly in high-risk areas. As the frequency and severity of climate-related events increase, insurance companies may reassess risk models and adjust pricing accordingly.
  7. Infrastructure Vulnerability:
    • Climate change can impact infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and utilities. Properties relying on vulnerable infrastructure may face challenges related to accessibility, reliability, and potential increases in repair and maintenance costs.
  8. Health Risks:
    • Humans will experience greater loss and damage to life and quality of life from air pollution, decreasing supply of potable water, extreme weather events, and disease. The greatest short term climate change risk to human health is deadly humid heat (wet-bulb temperature). Climate change can affect human health, and properties in areas prone to heatwaves, air pollution, or vector-borne diseases may face increased health risks. This could influence property values and community desirability.Almost all survivors of climate-related disasters suffer from mental distress. Of those who have not experienced climate disasters, more than two-thirds of U.S. adults (68%) have reported climate change anxiety.
  9. Regulatory Changes:
    • Governments may implement stricter building codes, zoning regulations, and disclosure requirements related to climate-related risks. Non-compliance could affect property values and lead to increased costs for property owners. Loss and damage litigation against oil companies and governments will change world economics.
  10. Shifts in Property Demand:

It’s important to note that the degree of risk varies by region and property type. Some areas may experience more immediate and severe impacts, while others may be more resilient. Assessing and mitigating these risks require a comprehensive understanding of local climate vulnerabilities and the implementation of strategies to enhance property resilience. Policymakers, real estate professionals, and property owners are increasingly recognizing the importance of addressing climate risks to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of real estate assets. Thus, our recommendation to evacuate Florida now (i.e. Managed Retreat).

Create a Climate-Resilient Environment in and Around Your Home Brouse (2024)

Managed Retreat: Relocating Due to Climate Change Extreme Weather Events Brouse (2023)

Stormwater Runoff Management for Your House Brouse (2024)

Tree Extinction Due to Human Induced Environmental Stress Mukherjee and Brouse (2005-present)

Soil Degradation and Desertification Brouse (2024)

Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee and Brouse (2022-2023)

Violent Rain and the Substrate Brouse and Laden (2024)

The Long-term Breathing Experiment Brouse (2023)

Health Impacts of Air Pollution Brouse (2023)

Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania and the Substrate Daniel Brouse (2023)

Real Estate Underwater: A Florida Climate Change Case Study Daniel Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

Real Estate and Climate Change: Stranded on an Island Daniel Brouse (2023)

Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History Brouse (2024)

All About Flood Insurance Brouse and Mukherjee (1995-present)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)