Category: Global Warming

bookmark_borderExtreme Weather and Violent Rain

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by Daniel Brouse

Between April 1 and 4, Southeastern Pennsylvania experienced another severe weather event attributed to atmospheric rivers and strong winds. Rainfall accumulation exceeded 3 inches, accompanied by wind gusts ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Tragically, two individuals lost their lives in unrelated incidents, one in Montgomery County and the other in Delaware County, when trees collapsed onto their vehicles.

Part of the The Philadelphia Violent Rain Experiment
The Greater Philadelphia Area serves as our focal point for studying non-coastal violent rain events. Although situated 78 miles from the nearest coast, Philadelphia has experienced a surge in violent rainstorms since 2021, with each episode yielding more precipitation than the typical monthly average. In addition to enduring Nor’easters and tropical storms from the Southeast, Philadelphia is increasingly subjected to deluges originating from the Gulf of Mexico.

Vine Street Expressway Flooded

Hurricane Ida in the summer of 2021 is a good example. Because of the 85 degrees Fahrenheit Gulf of Mexico ocean temperature, Ida rapidly gained strength right before it made landfall jumping from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm. The warm air allowed more moisture to be carried as rain. The storm was so large that it was able to pick up more moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. After destroying parts of Florida, the ocean moisture was carried inland and dumped over places like Pennsylvania and New York. Ida caused record flood damage in parts of Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida destroyed or damaged hundreds of homes in Southeastern Pennsylvania and caused more than $100 million in public infrastructure damage across the state.” There were more deaths in the Northeastern USA than where the storm made landfall in Louisiana. The New York Times reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused flash flooding and a number of deaths and disrupted transit across parts of New York and New Jersey. The storm killed at least 43 people in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut and left more than 150,000 homes without power.” Ida’s Philadelphia area destruction included 5 deaths, 7 tornadoes, record flooding, hundreds of water rescues, and “one incredibly soggy mess.” The violent rain in Philadelphia was so extreme that the main road across the city from the Delaware River to the Schuylkill River, the Vine Street Expressway, was turned into a canal. “You could’ve swam from 22nd Street to about 15th Street,” said Justin Galbreath, a district maintenance manager at the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. As climate change intensifies, the frequency of Vine Street becoming a river will likely increase until such time as it becomes permanent.

The train derailment in Plymouth Meeting (July 17, 2023), the eleven vehicles swept away, and the seven people drowned by flood waters in Washington Crossing (July 15, 2023) were caused by a deluge of rain and flash flooding. “In my 44 years, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Upper Makefield Fire Chief Tim Brewer said. “When the water came up, it came up very swiftly. We do not think that anybody drove into it, that they were actively on that road when it happened.” CBS news reported, “Over 6 inches of rain in an hour caused the flash flooding according to Brewer. The fire department was dispatched in that area for a lightning strike and just by happenstance they found 11 cars. Eight people were rescued from the cars and two from the creek.” In July and December of 2023, extreme rainfall resulted in sinkholes being exposed in the carbonate rock under Route 202 in nearby King of Prussia, PA.

In September of 2023, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia soaked the entire Philadelphia region with episodic downpours on Saturday, the first day of fall, conspiring to incite 60-mph wind gusts at the Shore and high-tide flooding that closed numerous roads in beach and back-bay towns.” There were up to 8 inches of rain recorded throughout the Philadelphia region over the three day event.

The winter of 2023 saw near weekly atmospheric river flash flooding events. On January 9, the Greater Philadelphia Region incurred an historic winter tropical violent rain event. CBS news reported, “If it feels like it’s been an abnormally rainy few weeks, you’re right. Normal rainfall totals between Dec. 1 and Jan. 9 amount to about 4.78 inches. Between December 2023 and Tuesday, we’d already recorded more than 9 inches of rain, an amount normally recorded in December, January and February combined.” The January 9 storm brought over 4 inches of rain to many areas. The Delaware River peaked at its highest level ever. There were hurricane strength winds with wind gusts over 70mph.

On March 23, 2024, Philadelphia witnessed its wettest March day on record. The rain gauge at the airport measured over 3 inches of rainfall, with parts of New Castle County, Delaware, also receiving over 3 inches. Some areas in Gloucester County and Camden County, New Jersey, recorded rainfall exceeding 4 inches. The precipitation observed on that day was roughly equivalent to the typical rainfall for the entire month. A young girl was swept away by the rapidly rising and swift moving waters of the Chester Creek in Delaware County, PA.

On the same day, an atmospheric river event brought heavy rains to Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro state, resulting in at least nine fatalities, with Petropolis being the hardest hit. A staggering 270 mm (11 inches) of rain fell within 24 hours, significantly impacting the region and leading to numerous incidents, including landslides and house collapses.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_border9 Climate Change Tipping Points Crossed

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By Daniel Brouse
March 28, 2024

Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. Identifying and understanding these tipping points is crucial for climate science and policymaking. Crossing multiple tipping points could lead to a domino effect, resulting in a much more rapid and severe climate change than currently projected.

A look at nine (9) of the multiple tipping points that are in play during 2024. The first dominoes have fallen and will continue to knock down more tiles with each escalating step. The crossing of these nine climate tipping points represents a critical threshold in the Earth’s climate system, with potentially irreversible consequences for global ecosystems and human societies:

  1. Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse: The melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has accelerated in recent years, leading to increased rates of ice loss and sea level rise. As glaciers retreat and ice shelves collapse, vast quantities of freshwater enter the ocean, disrupting marine ecosystems and contributing to global sea level rise.
  2. West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse: Similar to Greenland, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing rapid melting and destabilization. The collapse of this ice sheet has the potential to raise sea levels by several meters, inundating coastal areas and triggering widespread impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, and human populations.
  3. Labrador-Irminger Seas/SPG Convection Collapse: The collapse of convection in the Labrador-Irminger Seas, part of the North Atlantic Ocean, could disrupt the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This circulation pattern plays a crucial role in regulating global climate and ocean circulation, influencing weather patterns and heat distribution worldwide.
  4. East Antarctic Subglacial Basins Collapse: The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains vast quantities of ice, much of which is grounded below sea level. The collapse of subglacial basins in East Antarctica could lead to rapid ice loss and contribute to sea level rise, with potentially far-reaching consequences for coastal regions and global climate stability.
  5. Arctic Winter Sea Ice Collapse: Arctic sea ice has been declining rapidly in extent and thickness due to rising temperatures. The loss of winter sea ice in the Arctic not only accelerates regional warming but also affects global weather patterns, ocean circulation, and biodiversity in the Arctic ecosystem.
  6. East Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse: While traditionally considered more stable than its western counterpart, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is also vulnerable to collapse under continued warming. The disintegration of ice shelves and glaciers in East Antarctica could significantly contribute to sea level rise and alter ocean circulation patterns.
  7. Amazon Rainforest Dieback: Deforestation, drought, and climate change threaten the resilience of the Amazon Rainforest, the world’s largest tropical rainforest. The dieback of the Amazon could result in decreased rainfall, increased carbon emissions, and loss of biodiversity, impacting regional and global climate systems.
  8. Boreal Permafrost Collapse: Permafrost in the northern regions of the globe contains vast stores of carbon in the form of frozen organic matter. As permafrost thaws due to rising temperatures, it releases greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide, further exacerbating climate change and creating a feedback loop of increased warming.
  9. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Collapse: The collapse of the AMOC, driven by changes in ocean temperature and salinity, could have profound consequences for global climate stability. Disruption of this circulation pattern could lead to abrupt shifts in weather patterns, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and ocean currents, with far-reaching impacts on ecosystems and human societies.

The crossing of these tipping points underscores the urgent need for decisive action to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. Without concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect vulnerable ecosystems, the consequences of these tipping points could pose significant challenges to the well-being of present and future generations.

Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

Coral Reefs’ Tipping Point Brouse (2024)

Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History Brouse (2024)

Chaos Theory and Climate Change Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)

bookmark_borderShipping Pollution (Sulfur Emissions and Climate Change)

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by Daniel Brouse

There are several critical issues associated with marine fuel pollution used in international shipping. Shipping pollution is a global problem, spreading air pollution across the world. Historically, marine fuels have contained higher levels of sulfur due to the lower cost of lower-grade fuel oil. However, heavy fuel oil contains, on average, 2700 times more sulfur than road fuel. Sulfur in fuel leads to emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and contributes to the formation of secondary particulate matter (PM), which is highly detrimental to both human health and the environment.

Acid rain is a consequence of chemical reactions initiated when compounds like sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are released into the atmosphere. These substances can rise into the upper atmosphere, where they mix and react with water, oxygen, and other chemicals, forming more acidic pollutants known as acid rain. Acid rain, when absorbed by the ground, can dissolve essential nutrients like magnesium and calcium, crucial for the health of trees. Additionally, it releases aluminum into the soil, hindering trees’ ability to absorb water. This influx of chemicals also alters the chemistry of seawater, reducing its pH and capacity to store carbon. Ocean acidification, often dubbed “osteoporosis of the sea,” can erode the minerals essential for the shells and skeletons of marine life, including oysters, clams, lobsters, shrimp, and coral reefs.

Exposure to particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) poses numerous health risks, compromising respiratory and cardiac health. PM2.5, in particular, can deeply penetrate the lungs, causing inflammation and damage to lung tissue. Currently, approximately 7 million people die each year from exposure to particulate matter, with millions more experiencing severe health complications. Health impacts of air pollution encompass a wide range of ailments, including Alzheimer’s disease, asthma, bronchitis, cancer, cataracts, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), dementia, developmental damage, emphysema, gastrointestinal disorders, heart ailments, heart attacks, immune system dysfunction, ischaemic heart disease, impaired brain development in children, kidney disease, liver disease, lung disease, premature death, pneumonia, nasal and upper respiratory tract health problems, neurological disorders, reproductive harm, respiratory system failure, skin diseases, and strokes.

The Restriction of Sulfur in Marine Fuel
In 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced regulations imposing strict limits on the sulfur content of marine fuels. These rules mandated a reduction in the maximum percentage of sulfur from 3.5% to 0.5% for all ships operating worldwide.

The restriction on sulfur in marine fuel has indirectly contributed to increased ocean surface temperatures. As sulfur emissions from marine fuels decrease, ships transition to cleaner fuels with lower sulfur content. However, these cleaner fuels often contain higher levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent greenhouse gas. The increased CO2 emissions from ships burning cleaner fuels exacerbate global warming, leading to elevated ocean surface temperatures. This phenomenon underscores the broader impact of human activities on climate change, driving overall increases in global temperatures, including those of the Earth’s oceans.

According to a NASA-led analysis, global average sea level rose by approximately 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023. When our paper, “Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration“, was authored in 2023, the swift acceleration of this trend was unforeseen. Initially projected to double over 100 years, the rate of sea level rise dramatically escalated, shortening the doubling period to just 10 years by 2020. Recent observations suggest a further compression of this doubling period to a mere 2 years, raising significant concerns. It is imperative to acknowledge and address this alarming trend, hoping it is not indicative of a new norm but rather an anomaly.

Sidd elaborated, stating, “I suspect this is linked to the large jump in sea surface temperature last year, perhaps due to the restriction on sulfur in marine fuel. The rapid warming and expansion of the ocean’s surface warrant close observation to determine if this trend is sustained.”

Health and Wellness
Humans will experience greater loss and damage to life and quality of life from air pollution, decreasing supply of potable water, extreme weather events, disease, and other adverse health outcomes The greatest short term climate change risk to human health is deadly humid heat (wet-bulb temperature).

The environmental changes and uncertainties associated with climate change can contribute to mental health issues, including anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Almost all survivors of climate-related disasters suffer from mental distress and experience PTSD. Of those who have not experienced climate disasters, over two-thirds of U.S. adults (68%) report having climate change anxiety.

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe Sleeping Giant Rages Against the Ghost in the Machine Update

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by Daniel Brouse
March 23, 2024

You asked: I am terrified of what the summer will bring. Yet I also wonder if enough people suffer from out-of-control heat, might it wake up some sleepers? There aren’t enough people paying attention.

This is also a significant concern for me. Traditionally, we would expect to observe a slowdown in ocean surface temperatures during ENSO-neutral and La Niña phases; however, two primary factors may hinder this cooling effect:

  1. The unprecedented acceleration in ocean surface temperatures and sea level rise could counteract the upwelling of cool water typically associated with La Niña.
  2. The restriction on sulfur in marine fuel has indirectly contributed to increased ocean surface temperatures. When sulfur emissions from marine fuels are reduced, ships switch to using cleaner fuels that emit fewer sulfur compounds. However, these cleaner fuels often contain more carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent greenhouse gas.

PART II: Don’t Wake a Sleeping Giant

Regarding people waking up to the climate crisis:

  1. It seems that nothing can prompt the anti-woke to acknowledge the severity of the issue. For instance, Arizona experienced nearly two months of days with temperatures exceeding 110 degrees last year, with wet-bulb temperatures posing lethal risks for outdoor workers. Despite this, Arizona remains one of the strongest concentrations of climate deniers.
  2. If those who are currently unaware suddenly awaken en masse, the resulting panic and knee-jerk reaction could be equally harmful. We wrote a paper on this phenomenon in 2004 titled “The Sleeping Giant Rages Against the Ghost in the Machine.” The essence of the paper is that awakening the sleeping giant leads to panic, potentially resulting in harm to others.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change and Homeowners’ Insurance

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by Daniel Brouse

A significant factor contributing to both increased costs and decreased availability of homeowners insurance is climate change. The surge in insurance costs is primarily driven by the unprecedented number of climate-related disasters. States like California, Louisiana, and Florida now heavily rely on government aid to manage the financial burdens associated with residential property insurance.

In 2023, the United States faced 28 separate weather and climate disasters, each costing at least 1 billion dollars, marking it as the year with the highest number of billion-dollar disasters on record. Single extreme weather events are also becoming more costly. Hurricane Ida alone caused an estimated $75 billion in damages, making it the costliest disaster of 2021. Insurers paid out a staggering $99 billion in claims related to natural disasters in 2022, leading to a substantial 21 percent increase in premiums from May 2022 to May 2023.

The rising premiums aren’t just a matter of cost; it’s also becoming increasingly difficult to find coverage, especially in disaster-prone areas. Major insurers are reconsidering where they underwrite policies, with some, like State Farm General Insurance Company, halting the acceptance of new applications for property insurance due to rapidly growing catastrophe exposure.

Government officials have acknowledged the link between the availability of homeowners insurance and climate change. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have both highlighted the decline in insurance affordability and availability due to more frequent and severe natural disasters.

Even regions traditionally less prone to disasters are experiencing insurance challenges. The reinsurance market, influenced by events worldwide, impacts rates offered by insurers, subsequently increasing costs for homeowners.

In states like Louisiana, hurricanes such as Laura and Ida have severely impacted the insurance market, reminiscent of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Flood insurance, overseen by FEMA, is facing significant challenges, with premiums expected to double for many policyholders under FEMA’s new rating system.

FEMA is actively seeking recommendations to modify flood risk assessment procedures to better reflect the evolving climate challenges. Their efforts aim to equip communities with better tools to handle the increasing risks associated with climate change.

Insurance Cost and Availability

Climate change is profoundly impacting homeowners’ and flood insurance costs and availability in several ways:

  1. Increased Frequency and Severity of Natural Disasters: Climate change is leading to more frequent and severe weather events such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and storms. These events result in higher insurance payouts due to increased property damage, leading insurance companies to raise premiums to cover their costs.
  2. Rising Sea Levels: As sea levels rise due to climate change, coastal areas become more prone to flooding and storm surges. This increased risk of flood damage prompts insurance companies to adjust their pricing models, often resulting in higher premiums for properties in flood-prone zones.
  3. Changing Risk Assessment: Insurers are reassessing risk models to account for the changing climate conditions. Areas once considered low-risk may now be reclassified as high-risk due to increased vulnerability to weather-related events. As a result, homeowners in these areas may face higher insurance premiums or even difficulty obtaining coverage.
  4. Reduced Availability of Coverage: In regions heavily impacted by climate change-induced disasters, insurance companies may reduce or withdraw coverage altogether. This can leave homeowners in high-risk areas struggling to find affordable insurance options, particularly for flood insurance.
  5. Government Intervention: Government-backed flood insurance programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) in the United States, face financial strain due to increased claims resulting from climate-related disasters. This may lead to reforms in insurance programs, such as adjustments to premium rates or eligibility criteria, impacting homeowners’ access to affordable coverage.

Overall, climate change is exacerbating the risks and costs associated with homeowners’ and flood insurance, posing significant challenges for individuals and communities vulnerable to its effects.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

Flood Insurance

bookmark_borderClimate Change Rate of Acceleration Update

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by Brouse and Mukherjee

Doubling time is the amount of time it takes for a quantity to double in size (exponential growth). By 2020, there was enough data to see the doubling time of some anthropogenic climate affects had gone from 100 years to 10 years. For instance the rate of sea level rise has gone from about 1.5 millimeters per year to over 3 millimeters. We expect to see the doubling period to continue to shrink raising the possibility of sea levels rising a foot/year by 2050.

Global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023, according to a NASA-led analysis. When we authored this paper in 2023, we could not have foreseen the swift acceleration of this trend. Initially projected to double over a span of 100 years, the rate of sea level rise dramatically escalated, shortening the doubling period to a mere 10 years by 2020. Shockingly, recent observations suggest that this doubling period has further compressed to just 2 years. It is imperative to acknowledge and address this concerning trend, hoping it is not a foreboding indication of a new norm but rather an anomaly.

Sidd elaborated, “I suspect this is linked to the large jump in sea surface temperature last year, perhaps because of the restriction on sulfur in marine fuel. The top of the ocean warmed quickly and expanded. Let’s see if it is sustained.”

— from Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration Brouse and Mukherjee (2023-2024)

 

Also see:

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change? Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)

Climate Change Increases Moisture in the Atmosphere Brouse (2024)

Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee and Brouse (2022-2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) Brouse (2024)

Climate Change, the Jet Stream, and East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2024)

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mukherjee and Brouse (2022 and 2023)

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now Mukherjee and Brouse (2023)

Measuring Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Gravity Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)

Violent Rain and the Substrate Brouse and Laden (2024)

bookmark_borderSea Level Rise: Doubling Down

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by Daniel Brouse

When we authored our paper on the acceleration of climate change, we couldn’t have anticipated its rapid pace. The doubling period for sea level rise, which was projected to span 100 years, dramatically shortened to 10 years by 2020. Shockingly, recent observations indicate that this doubling period has further compressed to just 2 years. We can only hope that this alarming trend is an aberration rather than a new norm.

NASA Reports:
A long-term sea level dataset shows ocean surface heights continuing to rise at faster and faster rates over decades of observations.

Global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023, a relatively large jump due mostly to a warming climate and the development of a strong El Niño. The total rise is equivalent to draining a quarter of Lake Superior into the ocean over the course of a year.

This NASA-led analysis is based on a sea level dataset featuring more than 30 years of satellite observations, starting with the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission, which launched in 1992. The Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich mission, which launched in November 2020, is the latest in the series of satellites that have contributed to this sea level record.

The data shows that global average sea level has risen a total of about 4 inches (9.4 centimeters) since 1993. The rate of this increase has also accelerated, more than doubling from 0.07 inches (0.18 centimeters) per year in 1993 to the current rate of 0.17 inches (0.42 centimeters) per year.

This graph shows global mean sea level (in blue) since 1993 as measured by a series of five satellites. The solid red line indicates the trajectory of this increase, which more than doubled over the past three decades. The dotted red line projects future sea level rise.
NASA/JPL-Caltech

“Current rates of acceleration mean that we are on track to add another 20 centimeters of global mean sea level by 2050, doubling the amount of change in the next three decades compared to the previous 100 years and increasing the frequency and impacts of floods across the world,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director for the NASA sea level change team and the ocean physics program in Washington.

Seasonal Effects

Global sea level saw a significant jump from 2022 to 2023 due mainly to a switch between La Niña and El Niño conditions. A mild La Niña from 2021 to 2022 resulted in a lower-than-expected rise in sea level that year. A strong El Niño developed in 2023, helping to boost the average amount of rise in sea surface height.

La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño involves warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Both periodic climate phenomena affect patterns of rainfall and snowfall as well as sea levels around the world.

“During La Niña, rain that normally falls in the ocean falls on the land instead, temporarily taking water out of the ocean and lowering sea levels,” said Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “In El Niño years, a lot of the rain that normally falls on land ends up in the ocean, which raises sea levels temporarily.”

This animation shows the rise in global mean sea level from 1993 to 2023 based on data from a series of five international satellites. The spike in sea level from 2022 to 2023 is mostly a consequence of climate change and the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Credit: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderEnso-Neutral Not So Neutral

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by Daniel Brouse

The neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs when water temperature anomalies in the eastern and central Pacific range between 0.5 °C and -0.5 °C. During this period, neither La Niña nor El Niño conditions dominate, and it is sometimes humorously referred to as “La Nada”; however, ENSO-neutral is anything but neutral nor normal.

ENSO-neutral refers to a phase in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Climate change can influence ENSO-neutral conditions in several ways:

  1. Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extremes: Climate change can lead to more frequent and intense weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall events, even during ENSO-neutral periods. These extremes can occur independently of El Niño or La Niña events and may be exacerbated by rising global temperatures.
  2. Shifts in Atmospheric Circulation Patterns: Climate change can alter atmospheric circulation patterns globally, affecting the behavior of the jet stream and other large-scale wind patterns. These changes can influence the onset, strength, and duration of ENSO-neutral conditions and may lead to shifts in regional weather patterns.
  3. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: While ENSO-neutral conditions are characterized by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, climate change can contribute to overall warming of ocean waters. This background warming may influence the baseline SSTs during ENSO-neutral periods and can potentially impact weather patterns and ocean circulation.
  4. Teleconnections: Climate change can modify teleconnections, which are large-scale atmospheric linkages that connect distant regions of the globe. These teleconnections play a significant role in shaping weather and climate patterns during ENSO-neutral periods. Changes in teleconnections may alter the impacts of ENSO-neutral conditions on weather and climate variability in different regions.

Overall, while ENSO-neutral conditions may not directly result from climate change, the broader changes occurring in the climate system can influence the characteristics and impacts of these neutral periods. Understanding these interactions is essential for improving our ability to predict and adapt to future climate variability and extremes.

Atmosphere-Soil-Ocean Coupling:

  1. Teleconnections:
    • Chaos theory recognizes the concept of teleconnections, where seemingly unrelated events in one part of the Earth system influence conditions in another. For instance, changes in sea surface temperatures (linked to ocean dynamics) can affect atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to variations in precipitation and temperature on land.
  2. Climate Variability:
    • The complex interactions between soil, atmosphere, and oceans contribute to climate variability. Chaos theory helps to understand the sensitivity of the climate system to initial conditions and how small perturbations in one component can lead to significant and sometimes unpredictable outcomes.

In 2023, the world experienced an El Niño phase, which typically reduces hurricane activity. However, the climate pattern shifted towards La Niña in 2024. La Niña patterns often amplify the Atlantic hurricane season, particularly concerning when paired with months-long streaks of record warmth across the Atlantic Ocean.

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderInvestments / Savings / Asset Allocation Update

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Investment Recommendation: I Bonds and T-Bills

One of the best investments is Treasury Direct I Bonds. I Bonds’ interest rates are determined by the rate of inflation.

I Bonds can be purchased directly from the Treasury Department without a middle man, brokerage, or bank. There is no risk of losing your principle investment. They are redeemable after 12 months with three months interest penalty. No penalty after 5 years. The maturity is 30 years. Tax reporting of interest can be deferred until redemption or final maturity. If you use the money for qualified higher education expenses, you may not have to pay tax on the earnings.

The bulk of 2023 new investments was in 4-week Treasury Bills. In 2024, the recommendation for younger investors shifted to a 10% holding in 2-year Treasury Notes. Those in or close to retirement age are better suited to remain fully invested in 4-week Treasury Bills.

Savings / Asset Allocation (< 50 years old)
66% Real Estate *
20% Stocks
10% Treasury Bills
2% Treasury I Bonds
1% Precious Metals / Crypto

Savings / Asset Allocation (> 50 years old)
66% Real Estate *
20% Treasury Bills
10% Stocks
2% Treasury I Bonds
1% Precious Metals / Crypto

* Why All Real Estate is at Risk

 

bookmark_borderCostly Disasters: Hurricanes

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By Daniel Brouse

In the United States, hurricanes stand out as the most financially burdensome type of climate-related disaster. While the number of disasters related to extreme weather events such as rain, hail, and wind, resulting in over a billion dollars in damage may be higher, the sheer magnitude of damage caused by a single hurricane surpasses them. For example, in 2023, there were 17 extreme weather events, each causing over a billion dollars in damage, but no hurricanes occurred. However, Hurricane Ida alone incurred an estimated $75 billion in damages, making it the costliest disaster of 2021.

In 2023, the world experienced an El Niño phase, which typically reduces hurricane activity. However, the climate pattern shifted towards La Niña in 2024. La Niña patterns often amplify the Atlantic hurricane season, particularly concerning when paired with months-long streaks of record warmth across the Atlantic Ocean.

Unfortunately, even scientists are failing to see (let alone forecast) the rapid acceleration in climate change. Due to their complexity, the impacts of the Domino Effect are being underestimated. Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. The Domino Effect is also known as “tipping cascades” in climate science. Cascading impacts in relation to tipping points include cascading impacts across biogeophysical and social systems. Until recently, scientist have been drastically underestimating the social-ecological systems. The University of Exeter reports, “There is a notable lack of topic clusters dedicated to how humans will be impacted by climate-related tipping cascades.”

Previous climate models have inadequately incorporated “social-ecological systems” as human involvement was not a significant factor in past climate changes. Unfortunately, the United States ranks among the least prepared countries globally, with the highest percentage of climate deniers. The Republican party dismisses it as a manufactured crisis and plans to increase fossil fuel production, exacerbating the situation. Political extremists asserting that the climate crisis is manufactured employ an ironic term, considering that human manufacturing activities are the primary driver of climate change. Both political parties have concurred to allocate unlimited emergency funding for climate disasters instead of proactively preventing them. Last year, the US witnessed a record number of over a billion-dollar climate disasters, totaling 28 separate weather and climate-related events. It is due to this arrogance and ignorance that “worst-case scenarios” are now “best-case scenarios” for the acceleration of climate change. These factors have altered our climate model, shifting the projected maximum temperature rise from 4 degrees Celsius over the next millennium to a probable increase of 9 degrees Celsius this century.

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment