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bookmark_border1/3 of World Heritage Glaciers Will Disappear by 2050

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The United Nations says, “New UNESCO data highlight the accelerated melting of glaciers in World Heritage sites, with glaciers in a third of sites set to disappear by 2050. But it is still possible to save the other two thirds, if the rise in global temperatures does not exceed 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period.”

The UNESCO report World Heritage Glaciers found:

Glaciers across the globe – including the last ones in Africa – will be unavoidably lost by 2050 due to climate change.

Glaciers in a third of UN World Heritage sites will melt within three decades.

Mount Kilimanjaro’s last glaciers will vanish as will glaciers in the Alps and Yosemite National Park in the US.

They will melt regardless of the world’s actions to combat climate change.

50 UNESCO World Heritage sites are home to glaciers (A total of 18,600 glaciers have been identified in these 50 sites, covering around 66,000 km2), representing almost 10% of the Earth’s total glacierized area. They include the highest (next to Mt. Everest), the longest (in Alaska), and the last remaining glaciers in Africa, amongst others, giving a representative overview of the general situation of glaciers in the world.

But a new study by UNESCO, in partnership with IUCN, shows these glaciers have been retreating at an accelerated rate since 2000 due to CO2 emissions, which are warming temperatures. They are currently losing 58 billion tons of ice every year – equivalent to the combined annual water use of France and Spain– and are responsible for nearly 5% of observed global sea-level rise.
Only one effective solution: quickly reduce CO2 emissions

The report concludes that glaciers in a third of the 50 World Heritage sites are condemned to disappear by 2050, regardless of efforts to limit temperature increases. But it is still possible to save the glaciers in the remaining two thirds of sites if the rise in temperatures does not exceed 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period.

“We hope we might be wrong, but this is the hard science,” said UNESCO project officer Tales Carvalho Resende, one of the authors. “Glaciers are one of the valuable indicators of climate change, because they’re visible. This is something we can really see happening.”

The remaining glaciers in the other two thirds of UN World Heritage sites could be saved, but only if the world limits global warming to 1.5C, the authors say. Another UN report last week found that the world currently had “no credible pathway” to achieve that.

“What is quite unprecedented in the historical record is how quickly this is happening,” said Beata Csatho, a glaciologist from the University of Buffalo.

“In the middle of the 1900s, glaciers were quite stable,” she said. “Then there is this incredibly fast retreat.”

“This is really a call to take action at every level – not only at the political level, but at our level as human beings,” said Carvalho Resende.

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet |
Anthropologic Climate Change

bookmark_borderAntarctica and Greenland Ice Melt Faster Than Anticipated

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Antarctica’s Collapse Could Begin Even Sooner Than Anticipated
The article in Scientific American states, “Two expeditions to the Thwaites Ice Shelf have revealed that it could splinter apart in less than a decade, hastening sea-level rise worldwide.

“As Scambos and Wild gazed down from their Twin Otter plane this past January, they spotted several new tears in the shelf—three kilometers long and several hundred meters wide—where it lifts off the seafloor. Ragged cliffs of ice tilted 50 meters up into the air, exposing deep layers that had not seen daylight for thousands of years. “I think it’s losing contact with everything that used to be bracing it,” Scambos says. Not only is the ice shelf separating from its pinning point. As it speeds up, it is also stretching and tearing away from the glacier upstream.

The team was so alarmed that Pettit and Wild decided they will return this December to install a new instrument station: “BOB,” short for Breakup Observer. They hope BOB will survive long enough to record the final throes of the ice shelf as it fractures into shards. It might not take long.”

Greenland Rainfall and Albedo Feedback
The WMO (World Meteorological Organization) released the report State of the Climate in Europe 2021. “Temperatures in Europe have increased at more than twice the global average over the past 30 years — the highest of any continent in the world. As the warming trend continues, exceptional heat, wildfires, floods and other climate change impacts will affect society, economies and ecosystems, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).”

“Temperatures over Europe have warmed significantly over the 1991-2021 period, at an average rate of about +0.5℃ per decade. As a result, Alpine glaciers lost 30 meters in ice thickness from 1997 to 2021. The Greenland ice sheet is melting and contributing to accelerating sea level rise. In summer 2021, Greenland saw a melt event and the first-ever recorded rainfall at its highest point, Summit station.”

Does the rainfall have a significant impact? Yes; however, it is the Albedo Feedback that is of the most concern.

“It turns out that the rain itself wasn’t the most important factor”, says Prof. Jason Box from GEUS and lead author of the paper Greenland Ice Sheet Rainfall, Heat and Albedo Feedback Impacts From the Mid-August 2021 Atmospheric River reporting their results in Geophysical Research Letters.

“There is an irony. It’s not really the rain that did the damage to the snow and ice, it’s the darkening effect of the meltwater and how the heat from the event erased snow that had overlaid darker ice across the lower third of the ice sheet.”

“Unusually warm atmospheric rivers swept along Greenland in the late summer months, bringing potent melt conditions when the melt season was drawing to a close.”

“The researchers found that, between 19 and 20 August 2021, this melt caused the altitude of the ice sheet’s snowline near Kangerlussuaq to retreat in elevation by a whopping 788 metres, the snowline retreated, exposing a wide area of dark bare ice. Under normal circumstances, snow would cover and insulate this ice, but the snow melted suddenly and exposed the ice to heat, causing even more melting.”

“The authors conclude that the heatwave causing the rain event serves as an excellent example of ‘melt-albedo feedback that amplifies the melt impact of the initial melt perturbation'”.

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet |
Anthropologic Climate Change

bookmark_borderAntarctic Ice Sheet and Accelerating Ice loss

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A discovery made by researchers at Imperial College London, the University of Waterloo, Canada, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, and Newcastle University, shows a river longer than the Thames beneath Antarctic ice sheet.

The study explains how the Antarctic ice sheet has a river running under it. The headline “longer than the Thames” isn’t the thrust of the problem. Yes, it is adding a small amount to the rise in sea level. More importantly is not it’s length but rather its width that is critical to our survival. A very wide and thin layer of water is separating the ice sheet from the surface… accelerating the expected time for the collapse of the East Antarctic ice sheet. The surface temperature and tenths of a degree crossed over time is fairly irrelevant when compared to the collapse of the ice sheet. Before we reach +2C, the Antarctic ice sheet will collapse. When the ice sheet collapses, life as we know it will change. In many ways it will be similar to a meteor hitting the ocean. Dr. William Colgan said, “A collapse of the colossal east Antarctic ice sheet, would lead to a 52-metre rise in sea levels…” Besides the instant wiping out of all coast lines, there would likely be tsunamis and other impacts including an acceleration in global warming as the surface is turned from reflective ice to heat absorbing dark surfaces.

The study finds:
An unexpected river under the Antarctic ice sheet affects the flow and melting of ice, potentially accelerating ice loss as the climate warms.

The 460km-long river is revealed in a new study, which details how it collects water at the base of the Antarctic ice sheet from an area the size of Germany and France combined. Its discovery shows the base of the ice sheet has more active water flow than previously thought, which could make it more susceptible to changes in climate.

The discovery was made by researchers at Imperial College London, the University of Waterloo, Canada, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, and Newcastle University, with the details published today in Nature Geoscience.

Co-author Professor Martin Siegert, from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said: “When we first discovered lakes beneath the Antarctic ice a couple of decades ago, we thought they were isolated from each other. Now we are starting to understand there are whole systems down there, interconnected by vast river networks, just as they might be if there weren’t thousands of metres of ice on top of them.

“The region where this study is based holds enough ice to raise the sea level globally by 4.3m. How much of this ice melts, and how quickly, is linked to how slippery the base of the ice is. The newly discovered river system could strongly influence this process.”

Water sources
Water can appear beneath ice sheets in two main ways: from surface meltwater running down through deep crevasses, or by melting at the base, caused by the natural heat of the Earth and friction as the ice moves over land.

However, the ice sheets around the north and south poles have different characteristics. In Greenland, the surface experiences strong melting over the summer months, where immense amounts of water channel down through deep crevasses called moulins.

The situations in the Greenland summer (left) and the new system found in Antarctica
The situations in the Greenland summer (left) and the new system found in Antarctica

In Antarctica, however, the surface doesn’t melt in sufficient quantities to create moulins, as the summers are still too cold. It was thought this meant that there was relatively little water at the base of the Antarctic ice sheets.

The new discovery turns this idea on its head, showing there is sufficient water from basal melt alone to create huge river systems under kilometres-thick ice.

Improving predictions
The discovery was made through a combination of airborne radar surveys that allow researchers to look beneath the ice and modelling of the ice sheet hydrology. The team focussed on a largely inaccessible and understudied area that includes ice from both the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets and reaches the Weddell Sea.

That such a large system could be undiscovered until now is testament to how much we still need to learn about the continent, says lead researcher Dr Christine Dow from the University of Waterloo.

She said: “From satellite measurements we know which regions of Antarctica are losing ice, and how much, but we don’t necessarily know why. This discovery could be a missing link in our models. We could be hugely underestimating how quickly the system will melt by not accounting for the influence of these river systems.

“Only by knowing why ice is being lost can we make models and predictions of how the ice will react in the future under further global heating, and how much this could raise global sea levels.”

For example, the newly discovered river emerges into the sea beneath a floating ice shelf – where a glacier extending out from the land is buoyant enough to begin floating on the ocean water. The freshwater from the river however churns up warmer water towards the bottom of the ice shelf, melting it from below.

Co-author Dr Neil Ross, from the University of Newcastle, said: “Previous studies have looked at the interaction between the edges of ice sheets and ocean water to determine what melting looks like. However, the discovery of a river that reaches hundreds of kilometres inland driving some of these processes shows that we cannot understand the ice melt fully without considering the whole system: ice sheet, ocean, and freshwater.”

A changing Antarctica
The existence of large under-ice rivers also needs to be taken into account when predicting the possible consequences of climate change in the region. For example, if summers warm enough to cause enough surface melt that the water reaches the base of the ice sheet, it could have large effects on the river systems, potentially tipping Antarctica to a Greenland-like state, where ice loss is much faster.

There are also potential feedback loops that would accelerate ice loss. For example, if the ice starts to flow faster as water accumulated at the base, then this will increase friction where the ice runs over dry land, which could increase the amount of basal melting and water produced.

The team are now looking to gather more data about all these mechanisms from surveys to apply their models to other regions and provide a better understanding of how a changing Antarctica could change the planet.

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Anthropologic Climate Change

bookmark_borderThe Missing Risks of Climate Change

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The Journal Nature published the report The missing risks of climate change. The paper found that there are many risks associated with climate change that are not being considered in economic analysis. (The Climate Endgame also found inadequacies in current risk management analysis.)

Abstract

The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. Here we argue that these unquantified, poorly understood and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision-making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing owing to delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, feedbacks and interactions between risks, deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an approach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way that accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles. A wide range of climate impacts are understudied or challenging to quantify, and are missing from current evaluations of the climate risks to lives and livelihoods. Strong interdisciplinary collaboration and deeper engagement with uncertainty is needed to properly inform policymakers and the public about climate risks.
Main

There is overwhelming evidence that the risks and impacts from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are very significant, will impact nearly every aspect of human life and the environment, and could ultimately prove to be devastating. An apparent incongruity exists between the pervasiveness of anticipated physical changes and the relatively modest total losses often estimated in economic evaluations1,2. Part of the explanation for this mismatch comes from ‘missing risks’: the risks that are not currently included in economic evaluations because of their uncertainty, because of our limited understanding of them or because existing economic models do not capture them in sufficient detail.

The interplay within and between different physical and social systems plays a crucial role in defining when and where impacts will manifest themselves, and these interactions are often only poorly understood. This leads to large and growing uncertainty estimates and a wide range of incompletely understood and underestimated risks3. For example, the potential for climate change impacts to drive social discontent, dislocation and relocation, and instability and conflict, are all deeply uncertain, but potentially crippling.

Excluding these risks from economic assessments is equivalent to placing a probability of zero on their occurrence. This, clearly, is not the case. Similarly, the common practice of engaging with only the expected levels of impacts and reporting central confidence bounds can undermine the ability of decision-makers to engage with the actual range of risks. The overall consequence is an underestimation of the total risks of climate change. This Perspective aims to identify, classify and suggest ways to engage with some of the most significant risks that are not currently captured by socioeconomic evaluations of climate change, from both a natural perspective and a social perspective. As an example of how this can be achieved, we present a demonstration of how diverse impact estimates or assumptions can be coherently combined.
Background

The complexity of feedback systems has slowed the process of both understanding them and modelling them. Compound, sequential, and concurrent extremes would lead to lower thresholds (for a single driver) for substantial impacts as well as deeper impacts when two drivers align53. The overall lack of representation for this type of secondary effect leads to an underestimation of risk.

Understanding the risk of 2 °C, 3 °C and 4 °C global mean surface temperature anomalies requires not only a reporting of the existing risks that models provide but also the incorporation of new classes of risks as well as the potential for disruptive unknown risks that could dramatically alter the context of future societal systems and anthropogenic climate change risks. It is hoped that recognition of these ‘missing risks’ will improve the overall level of accounting for consequences associated with climate change under credible warming scenarios.

Global Warming

bookmark_borderClimate Change: No Credible Pathway to 1.5C Limit

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The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) insisted there is “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place.” The report Climate change: No ‘credible pathway’ to 1.5C limit found:

National pledges to reduce harmful emissions offer little hope of avoiding climate disaster, UN climate experts said on Thursday, in an urgent appeal for a radical transformation of the energy sector, before it’s too late.

There’s “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place” today, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) insisted in a new report, despite legally binding promises made at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference to prevent average temperatures rising by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Uncomfortable truth
“This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.

“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster.”

Despite Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) promises made by governments in favour of reducing their carbon footprint, pledges made since the last climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 will lead to cuts of less than one per cent of projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions, according to UNEP.
Paltry reductions

This is the equivalent of just 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2, UNEP calculated, adding that only a 45 per cent emissions reduction will limit global warming to 1.5C.

As it stands today, latest data indicates that the world is on track for a temperature rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C by the end of this century.

“In the best-case scenario, full implementation of unconditional NDCs and additional net-zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8C increase, so there is hope. However, this scenario is not currently credible based on the discrepancy between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets,” UNEP said.
Fossil fuel-free solution

For the situation to improve, a “large-scale, rapid” and fossil fuel-free shake-up is needed of our “electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems” to cut emissions by 45 per cent to limit global warming to 1.5C, and by 30 per cent to keep average temperature rise to 2C, the UN agency explained.

And although the transformation towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is underway in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings, it needs to move “much faster”, the report concludes.

It found that electricity supply transformation had made most progress in some countries, amid dramatically reduced renewable electricity prices.

“It is a tall, and some would say impossible order, to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we must try,” said Ms. Andersen. “Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to species and ecosystems, and to every one of us.”
Food system reform

Rapid and lasting emissions cuts are needed in food production industries too, as this accounts for about a third of greenhouse gases, UNEP continued.

It noted that action in four areas – protection of natural ecosystems, dietary changes, improvements in farm food production and decarbonization of food supply chains – would reduce food system emissions by 2050 to around a third of current levels.

Global Warming

bookmark_borderClimate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now

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The UN’s United in Science 2022 release their report A multi-organization high-level compilation of the most recent science related to climate change, impacts and responses.

In order to avoid catastrophic climate change, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030. Currently, greenhouse gas emissions will INCREASE by 13% by 2030.

“According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.”

Countries’ climate promises still not enough to avoid catastrophic global warming
The current combined National Determined Contributions (NDCs)—meaning the countries’ national efforts to tackle emissions and mitigate climate change—are leading our planet to at least 2.5 degrees warming, a level deemed catastrophic by scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

According to the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue to rise,
despite emissions reductions in 2020 resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The Global Carbon Project also
notes that, in 2021, global fossil CO2 emissions returned to 2019 pre-pandemic levels after a large, but temporary, absolute
drop in emissions due to widespread lockdowns. These conditions are leading to increasing global surface temperature and
other climatic changes, as highlighted by the WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report, which found the most recent
seven years, 2015 to 2021, to be the warmest on record.

Looking forward, the Met Office (UK), in partnership with the World Climate Research Programme, found that there is a 48%
chance that, during at least one year in the next five years, annual mean temperature will temporarily be 1.5 °C higher than
in 1850-1900. Additionally, there is a 93% chance that at least one year in the same time period will be the hottest on record.
The UN Environment Programme’s latest Emissions Gap Report found that the full implementation of mitigation pledges
made by countries (as of 4 November 2021) is insufficient and will not keep global warming below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels. The report also found that the ambition of these pledges would need to be four times higher to keep global temperature
rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and seven times higher to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Enhanced mitigation action
is needed to prevent the goals of the Paris Agreement from slipping out of reach.

Without ambitious action, the physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change will be devastating. Irreversible
physical changes in the climate system, known as tipping points, can not be ruleld out and could have significant global
and regional consequences. According to the Urban Climate Change Research Network, cities – responsible for up to 70%
of human-caused emissions – will face increasing climate impacts that will intersect with socioeconomic inequalities.
Additionally, the WMO World Weather Research Programme highlights that it is the world’s most vulnerable populations
that will suffer the most, as has already been observed during recent extreme weather events.

Billions of people around the world are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As a result, adaptation and
disaster risk reduction are crucial to lower the risks to climate impacts. According to WMO and the UN Office for Disaster
Risk Reduction, early warning systems not only save lives and reduce losses and damages, but also contribute to disaster
risk reduction, and support climate change adaptation. However, less than half of all countries in the world have these
crucial systems and coverage is particuarly low in vulnerable countries. To address this issue, the United Nations Secretary-
General António Guterres called for new action to ensure every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems in
the next five years.

Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released highly anticipated Working Group reports
covering The Physical Science Basis; Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; and Mitigation of Climate Change, which are an
integral part of its Sixth Assessment Report. These important reports identify the strength of scientific agreement in these
different areas as well as where further research is needed.

The science is clear – urgent action is needed to mitigate emissions and adapt to our changing climate. The United Nations
system, along with its partners, will continue to provide world-leading science to inform decision-making and support
global climate action.

Global Warming.

bookmark_borderHealth and Climate Change: Health at the Mercy of Fossil Fuels

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The Lancet released the report The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels.

Q: Are millions of people already dying as a result of human induced climate change?
A: Yes.

Q: Can millions of people’s lives still be saved?
A: Yes, “a health-centred response can still deliver a thriving future if immediate action is taken.”
“The health impacts of multiple crises are being exacerbated by persistent fossil fuel dependence and putting additional strain on health systems. This is resulting in increased risk of food insecurity, infectious disease transmission, heat-related disease, energy poverty, and deaths from exposure to air pollution.”

A call to action
After 30 years of UNFCCC negotiations, the Lancet Countdown indicators show that countries and companies continue to make choices that threaten the health and survival of people in every part of the world. As countries devise ways to recover from the coexisting crises, the evidence is unequivocal. At this critical juncture, an immediate, health-centred response can still secure a future in which world populations can not only survive, but thrive.

Key findings of the 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown

  • • Climate change is undermining every dimension of global health monitored, increasing the fragility of the global systems that health depends on, and increasing the vulnerability of populations to the coexisting geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises.
  • • Climate change is increasingly undermining global food security, exacerbating the effects of the COVID-19, geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises. New analysis of 103 countries shows that days of extreme heat, increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, accounted for an estimated 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than the average in 1981–2010 (indicator 1.4).
  • • Well-prepared health systems are essential to protect populations from the health impacts of climate change. However, global health systems have been drastically weakened by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the funds available for climate action decreased in 239 (30%) of 798 cities (indicator 2.1.3), with health systems increasingly being affected by extreme weather events and supply chain disruptions too.
  • • Insufficient climate change adaptation efforts have left health systems vulnerable to climate change-related health hazards. Only 48 of 95 countries have assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and only 63% of countries reported high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4). Increasing adaptation to climate change has the potential to simultaneously improve the capacity of health systems to manage both future infectious disease outbreaks and other health emergencies (indicator 2.3.1).
  • • Mitigation of the energy sector is crucial to keep the rise in global mean surface temperatures within the 1·5°C target set in the Paris Agreement. However, the energy sector is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Its carbon intensity decreased by less than 1% since the year the UNFCCC was signed, and a simultaneous increase in energy demand of 59% has increased total energy sector emissions to record high levels in 2021 (indicator 3.1). Now, as countries seek alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, many are backsliding to coal, and shifts in global energy supplies risk a net increase in fossil fuel production and consumption.
  • • The slow adoption of renewable energies, which contribute to only 2.2% of total global energy supply (indicator 3.1), means households remain vulnerable to highly volatile international fossil fuel markets, and millions lack access to reliable, clean sources of fuel. Traditional biomass accounts for 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, and for 96% of that in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). New analysis shows that the air in people’s homes in 62 countries analysed exceeded WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020, by 30-fold on average (indicator 3.2). The current energy and cost-of-living crises, now threatens to worsen enery poverty.
  • • A new indicator this year reveals that, on the basis of their existing production strategies and market shares, 15 of the largest oil and gas companies would exceed their share of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the 1·5°C climate target by an average of 87% (publicly-listed international companies) and 111% (state-owned national companies) in 2040 making the goals of the Paris Agreement unattainable (indicator 4.2.6).
  • • In 2019, 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion. These subsidies exceeded 10% of national health spending in 31 countries and exceeded 100% in 5 countries (indicator 4.2.4). Meanwhile, climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1).
  • • A health-centred response to the coexisting climate, energy, and cost-of-living crises provides an opportunity to deliver a healthy, low-carbon future. Transitioning to clean energy and improved energy efficiency can avert the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while also improving energy security, supporting economic recovery, preventing the 1·2 million annual deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 (indicator 3.3), and improving health outcomes by promoting active forms of travel for greener cities. The associated reduction in the burden of disease will in turn reduce the strain on overwhelmed healthcare providers, and enable better care.
  • • The media, the scientific community, corporations, and country leaders are increasingly engaging in health and climate change (indicators 5.1–5.5), and new analysis shows that 86% of updated or new Nationally Determined Contributions now reference health (indicator 5.4).
  • • Countries are attempting to cut their dependence on international oil and gas supplies in response to the war in Ukraine and energy crisis, with some focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes that a health-centred response could be emerging. However, the increased engagement and commitments must be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

Executive summary

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world’s populations to concurrent health threats.

During 2021 and 2022, extreme weather events caused devastation across every continent, adding further pressure to health services already grappling with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Floods in Australia, Brazil, China, western Europe, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Africa, and South Sudan caused thousands of deaths, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and caused billions of dollars in economic losses. Wildfires caused devastation in Canada, the USA, Greece, Algeria, Italy, Spain, and Türkiye, and record temperatures were recorded in many countries, including Australia, Canada, India, Italy, Oman, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the UK. With advancements in the science of detection and attribution studies, the influence of climate change over many events has now been quantified.

Because of the rapidly increasing temperatures, vulnerable populations (adults older than 65 years, and children younger than one year of age) were exposed to 3·7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than annually in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2), and heat-related deaths increased by 68% between 2000–04 and 2017–21 (indicator 1.1.5), a death toll that was significantly exacerbated by the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Simultaneously, the changing climate is affecting the spread of infectious diseases, putting populations at higher risk of emerging diseases and co-epidemics. Coastal waters are becoming more suitable for the transmission of Vibrio pathogens; the number of months suitable for malaria transmission increased by 31·3% in the highland areas of the Americas and 13·8% in the highland areas of Africa from 1951–60 to 2012–21, and the likelihood of dengue transmission rose by 12% in the same period (indicator 1.3.1). The coexistence of dengue outbreaks with the COVID-19 pandemic led to aggravated pressure on health systems, misdiagnosis, and difficulties in management of both diseases in many regions of South America, Asia, and Africa.

The economic losses associated with climate change impacts are also increasing pressure on families and economies already challenged with the synergistic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the international cost-of-living and energy crises, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants that good health depends on. Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021 (indicator 1.1.4), with potential income losses equivalent to 0·72% of the global economic output, increasing to 5·6% of the GDP in low Human Development Index (HDI) countries, where workers are most vulnerable to the effects of financial fluctuations (indicator 4.1.3). Meanwhile, extreme weather events caused damage worth US$253 billion in 2021, particularly burdening people in low HDI countries in which almost none of the losses were insured (indicator 4.1.1).

Through multiple and interconnected pathways, every dimension of food security is being affected by climate change, aggravating the impacts of other coexisting crises. The higher temperatures threaten crop yields directly, with the growth seasons of maize on average 9 days shorter in 2020, and the growth seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat 6 days shorter than for 1981–2010 globally (indicator 1.4). The threat to crop yields adds to the rising impact of extreme weather on supply chains, socioeconomic pressures, and the risk of infectious disease transmission, undermining food availability, access, stability, and utilisation. New analysis suggests that extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than annually in 1981–2010, in 103 countries analysed (indicator 1.4). The increasingly extreme weather worsens the stability of global food systems, acting in synergy with other concurrent crises to reverse progress towards hunger eradication. Indeed, the prevalence of undernourishment increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and up to 161 million more people faced hunger during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than in 2019. This situation is now worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy and cost-of-living crises, with impacts on international agricultural production and supply chains threatening to result in 13 million additional people facing undernutrition in 2022.

A debilitated first line of defence

With the worsening health impacts of climate change compounding other coexisting crises, populations worldwide increasingly rely on health systems as their first line of defence. However, just as the need for healthcare rises, health systems worldwide are debilitated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy and cost-of-living crises. Urgent action is therefore needed to strengthen health-system resilience and to prevent a rapidly escalating loss of lives and to prevent suffering in a changing climate. However, only 48 (51%) of 95 countries reported having assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and, even after the profound impacts of COVID-19, only 60 (63%) countries reported a high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4).

The scarcity of proactive adaptation is shown in the response to extreme heat. Despite the local cooling and overall health benefits of urban greenspaces, only 277 (27%) of 1038 global urban centres were at least moderately green in 2021 (indicator 2.2.3), and the number of households with air conditioning increased by 66% from 2000 to 2020, a maladaptive response that worsens the energy crisis and further increases urban heat, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions.

As converging crises further threaten the world’s life-supporting systems, rapid, decisive, and coherent intersectoral action is essential to protect human health from the hazards of the rapidly changing climate.

Health at the mercy of fossil fuels

The year 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, in which countries agreed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change and its deleterious effects on human health and welfare. However, little meaningful action has since followed. The carbon intensity of the global energy system has decreased by less than 1% since the UNFCCC was established, and global electricity generation is still dominated by fossil fuels, with renewable energy contributing to only 8·2% of the global total (indicator 3.1). Simultaneously, the total energy demand has risen by 59%, increasing energy-related emissions to a historical high in 2021. Current policies put the world on track to a catastrophic 2·7°C increase by the end of the century. Even with the commitments that countries set in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) updated up until November 2021, global emissions could be 13·7% above 2010 levels by 2030—far from the 43% decrease from current levels required to meet Paris Agreement goals and keep temperatures within the limits of adaptation.

Fossil fuel dependence is not only undermining global health through increased climate change impacts, but also affects human health and wellbeing directly, through volatile and unpredictable fossil fuel markets, frail supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts. As a result, millions of people do not have access to the energy needed to keep their homes at healthy temperatures, preserve food and medication, and meet the seventh Sustainable Development Goal (to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all). Without sufficient support, access to clean energy has been particularly slow in low HDI countries, and only 1·4% of their electricity came from modern renewables (mostly wind and solar power) in 2020 (indicator 3.1). An estimated 59% of health-care facilities in low and middle-income countries still do not have access to the reliable electricity needed to provide basic care. Meanwhile, biomass accounts for as much as 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, mostly from traditional sources—a proportion that increases to 96% in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). The associated burden of disease is substantial, with the air in people’s homes exceeding WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020 by 30-fold on average in the 62 countries assessed (indicator 3.2). After 6 years of improvement, the number of people without access to electricity increased in 2020 as a result of the socioeconomic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current energy and cost-of-living crises now threaten to reverse progress toward affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants of health.

Simultaneously, oil and gas companies are registering record profits, while their production strategies continue to undermine people’s lives and wellbeing. An analysis of the production strategies of 15 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, as of February 2022, revealed they exceed their share of emissions consistent with 1·5°C of global heating (indicator 4.2.6) by 37% in 2030 and 103% in 2040, continuing to undermine efforts to deliver a low carbon, healthy, liveable future. Aggravating this situation even further, governments continue to incentivise fossil fuel production and consumption: 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion in 2019, allocating amounts often comparable with or even exceeding their total health budgets (indicator 4.2.4). Simultaneously, wealthier countries failed to meet their commitment of mobilising the considerably lower sum of $100 billion annually by 2020 as agreed at the 2009 Copenhagen Accord to support climate action in “developing countries”, and climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1). The impacts of climate change on global economies, together with the recession triggered by COVID-19 and worsened by geopolitical instability, could paradoxically further reduce the willingness of countries to allocate the funds needed to enable a just climate transition.

A health-centred response for a thriving future

The world is at a critical juncture. With countries facing concurrent crises, the implementation of long-term emissions-reduction policies risks being deflected or defeated by challenges wrongly perceived as more immediate. Addressing each of the concurrent crises in isolation risks alleviating one, while worsening another. Such a situation is emerging from the response to COVID-19, which has so far has not delivered the green recovery that the health community proposed, and, on the contrary, is aggravating climate change-related health risks. Less than one third of $3·11 trillion allocated to COVID-19 economic recovery is likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution, with the net effect likely to increase emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic affected climate action at the city level, and 239 (30%) of 798 cities reported that COVID-19 reduced financing available for climate action (indicator 2.1.3).

As countries search for alternatives to Russian oil and gas, many continue to favour the burning of fossil fuels, with some even turning back to coal. Shifts in global energy supplies threaten to increase fossil fuel production. Even if implemented as a temporary transition, these responses could reverse progress on air quality improvement, irreversibly push the world off track from meeting the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement, and guarantee a future of accelerated climate change that threatens human survival.

On the contrary, in this pivotal moment, a health-centred response to the current crises would still provide the opportunity for a low-carbon, resilient future, which not only avoids the health harms of accelerated climate change, but also delivers improved health and wellbeing through the associated co-benefits of climate action. Such response would see countries promptly shifting away from fossil fuels, reducing their dependence on fragile international oil and gas markets, and accelerating a just transition to clean energy sources. A health-centred response would reduce the likelihood of the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while improving energy security, creating an opportunity for economic recovery, and offering immediate health benefits. Improvements in air quality would help to prevent the 1·2 million deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 in 2020 alone (indicator 3.3), and a health-centred energy transition would enhance low-carbon travel and increase urban green spaces, promoting physical activity, and improving physical and mental health. In the food sector, an accelerated transition to balanced and more plant-based diets would not only help reduce the 55% of agricultural sector emissions coming from red meat and milk production (indicator 3.5.1), but also prevent up to 11·5 million diet-related deaths annually (indicator 3.5.2), and substantially reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases. These health-focused shifts would reduce the burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, reducing the strain on overwhelmed health-care providers. Importantly, accelerating climate change adaptation would lead to more robust health systems, minimising the negative impacts of future infectious disease outbreaks and geopolitical conflicts, and restoring the first line of defence of global populations.

Emerging glimmers of hope

Despite decades of insufficient action, emerging, albeit few, signs of change provide some hope that a health-centred response might be starting to emerge. Individual engagement with the health dimensions of climate change, essential to drive and enable an accelerated response, increased from 2020 to 2021 (indicator 5.2), and coverage of health and climate change in the media reached a new record high in 2021, with a 27% increase from 2020 (indicator 5.1). This engagement is also reflected by country leaders, with a record 60% of 194 countries focusing their attention on the links between climate change and health in the 2021 UN General Debate, and with 86% of national updated or new NDCs making references to health (indicator 5.4). At the city level, local authorities are progressively identifying risks of climate change on the health of their populations (indicator 2.1.3), a first step to delivering a tailored response that strengthens local health systems. Although the health sector is responsible for 5·2% of all global emissions (indicator 3.6), it has shown impressive climate leadership, and 60 countries had committed to transitioning to climate-resilient and/or low-carbon or net-zero carbon health systems as part of the COP26 Health Programme, as of July, 2022.

Signs of change are also emerging in the energy sector. Although total clean energy generation remains grossly insufficient, record high levels were reached in 2020 (indicator 3.1). Zero-carbon sources accounted for 80% of investment in electricity generation in 2021 (indicator 4.2.1), and renewable energies have reached cost parity with fossil fuel energies. As some of the highest emitting countries attempt to cut their dependence on oil and gas in response to the war in Ukraine and soaring energy prices, many are focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes for a health-centred response. However, increased awareness and commitments should be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

A call to action

After 30 years of UNFCCC negotiations, the Lancet Countdown indicators show that countries and companies continue to make choices that threaten the health and survival of people in every part of the world. As countries devise ways to recover from the coexisting crises, the evidence is unequivocal. At this critical juncture, an immediate, health-centred response can still secure a future in which world populations can not only survive, but thrive.

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bookmark_borderCOVID-19: Aging Accelerant

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In three separate studies of the kidneys, heart, and brain, COVID-19 has been found to act as an aging accelerant.

“Some of the theories for what may be causing long-COVID symptoms include the persistence of the virus. So, instead of the virus coming and going, it sticks around causing inflammation, auto-immune problems and changes in the microbiome,” Dr. Michael Peluso, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco said.

“You can start thinking about getting COVID as almost an accelerant to aging. The viral infection accelerates the aging process in people,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, director of the Clinical Epidemiology Center at Washington University in St. Louis and the chief of research and education service at Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System.

Dr. Al-Aly researched data from millions of people across the country. The studies on kidney outcomes in long COVID, long COVID in the brain and long COVID in the heart had similar patterns.

“We have seen that people are losing about three to four percent kidney function in the year following that infection. That usually happens with three to four years of aging,” Al-Aly said.

Long-term cardiovascular outcomes of COVID-19

Long-term neurologic outcomes of COVID-19

Kidney Outcomes in Long COVID

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bookmark_borderClimate Change: Viruses and Bacteria Reawaken

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The proceeding of the Royal Proceedings released the report Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake sediments.

Scientists in Canada wanted to investigate how climate change might affect spillover risk by examining samples from the Arctic landscape of Lake Hazen.

It is the largest lake in the world entirely north of the Arctic Circle, and “was truly unlike any other place I’ve been”, said researcher Graham Colby.

“It could be anything from ticks to mosquitoes to certain animals, to bacteria and viruses themselves,” said Lemieux.

“It’s really unpredictable… and the effect of spillover itself is very unpredictable, it can range from benign to an actual pandemic.”

The host spectrum of viruses is quite diverse, as they can sustainedly infect a few species to several phyla. When confronted with a new host, a virus may even infect it and transmit sustainably in this new host, a process called ‘viral spillover’. However, the risk of such events is difficult to quantify. As climate change is rapidly transforming environments, it is becoming critical to quantify the potential for spillovers. To address this issue, we resorted to a metagenomics approach and focused on two environments, soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the largest High Arctic freshwater lake in the world. We used DNA and RNA sequencing to reconstruct the lake’s virosphere in both its sediments and soils, as well as its range of eukaryotic hosts. We then estimated the spillover risk by measuring the congruence between the viral and the eukaryotic host phylogenetic trees, and show that spillover risk increases with runoff from glacier melt, a proxy for climate change. Should climate change also shift species range of potential viral vectors and reservoirs northwards, the High Arctic could become fertile ground for emerging pandemics.

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bookmark_borderClimate Change: Flesh Eating Bacteria

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The side effects of climate change are far reaching. Lee County, Florida is where hurricane Ian made landfall. Storm surges and subsequent flooding led to a spike in the potentially deadly infections caused by Vibrio vulnificus. The flesh eating species of bacteria is found in warm, brackish water.

One species, Vibrio vulnificus, can cause life-threatening wound infections. Many people with Vibrio vulnificus infection require intensive care or limb amputations, and about 1 in 5 people with this infection die, sometimes within a day or two of becoming ill.

Some Vibrio vulnificus infections lead to necrotizing fasciitis, a severe infection in which the flesh around an open wound dies. Some media reports call this kind of infection “flesh-eating bacteria,” said the CDC.

At least 29 cases and four deaths have been confirmed in Lee County this year as a result of such infections.

“The Florida Department of Health in Lee County is observing an abnormal increase in cases of Vibrio vulnificus infections as a result of exposure to the flood waters and standing waters following Hurricane Ian,” a spokesperson at the county health department said in a statement to CBS News on Monday, which noted that community members should “always be aware of the potential risks associated when exposing open wounds, cuts, or scratches on the skin to warm, brackish, or salt water.”

“Sewage spills, like those caused from Hurricane Ian, may increase bacteria levels,” the statement continued. “As the post storm situation evolves, individuals should take precautions against and infection and illness caused by Vibrio vulnificus.”

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