Archives

bookmark_borderCOVID: Hypertension, Heart-disease Risk Soars

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse

There have been many documented cases of Sars-Cov-2 causing heart problems including Myocarditis (inflammation of the heart.) Johns Hopkins Medicine says, “Coronavirus infection also affects the inner surfaces of veins and arteries, which can cause blood vessel inflammation, damage to very small vessels and blood clots, all of which can compromise blood flow to the heart or other parts of the body.”

Long term studies have now shown a significant long term risk of heart disease. In the Nature article, Heart-disease risk soars after COVID — even with a mild case, the authors report:

Massive study shows a long-term, substantial rise in risk of cardiovascular disease, including heart attack and stroke, after a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

What’s more, the risk was elevated even for those who were under 65 years of age and lacked risk factors, such as obesity or diabetes.
“It doesn’t matter if you are young or old, it doesn’t matter if you smoked, or you didn’t,” says study co-author Ziyad Al-Aly at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, and the chief of research and development for the Veterans Affairs (VA) St. Louis Health Care System. “The risk was there.”

“I am actually surprised by these findings that cardiovascular complications of COVID can last so long,” Hossein Ardehali, a cardiologist at Northwestern University in Chicago, Illinois.

Data from the Smidt Heart Institute at Cedars-Sinai found that deaths from heart attacks rose significantly during pandemic surges. “The dramatic rise in heart attacks during the pandemic has reversed what was a prior decades-long steady improvement in cardiac deaths,” said Yee Hui Yeo, MD, first author of the study. “We are still learning the many ways by which COVID-19 affects the body, regardless of age, gender, ethnicity or race.”

Post-COVID individuals should be on the lookout for heart related issues. Studies have shown an increase risk of hypertension. The study Does COVID-19 Cause Hypertension? concluded, “These findings suggest that COVID-19 increases systolic and diastolic BP and may cause new onset hypertension.”

The Journal Nature published the study Long COVID and hypertension-related disorders. “As a sequel to our previous report in 2020 which reviewed the association of COVID-19 and hypertension, we summarize the possible influences of long COVID on hypertension-related organs, including the cardiovascular system, kidney, and endocrine system, as well as the pathophysiological mechanisms associated with the disorders.” The study concludes, “Evidence suggests that long COVID affects the clinical course of hypertension-related disorders, such as CVD, kidney diseases, and endocrine diseases. Studies thus far also indicate that long COVID has greater impacts on older population and women.”

A niacin supplement (nicotinic acid) is recommended to help reduce the severity of long term complications.

ALSO SEE: COVID: Long COVID Update: Living With It

Insulin Reduction, Diabetes, High Cholesterol, Heart Disease and Stroke
COVID, Long-COVID, and Blood Clots

MORE Scientific Research on COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2

bookmark_borderEconomic Update: Inflation, Interest Rates, AI, Consumer Spending, Climate Change, and Fiscal Policy

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
February 3, 2023

This article is about the economic conditions up to 2023 and a forecast for the foreseeable future. It helps to understand fiscal and monetary polices prior to reading the following.

In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve raised their interest rates charged to other banks 4.75 percent in an effort to fight inflation. In the later part of 2022, inflation appeared to level-off and start to decline; however, it would be a mistake to think the war is won.

In essence, the short term rise in Fed interest rates is a fiscal facade. In the short term, the rise in Fed rates strengthens the dollar reversing the pressure on real market interest rates. The rise in rates causes inflows of foreign currency dampening the effect on the Treasury’s borrowing costs. At the same time, it makes imported consumer goods cheaper. What the Fed has done with rate hikes so far has not touched the root causes of inflation — lack of immigration/young workers, consumer spending and debt, and government spending and debt.

Unfortunately, the first one — immigration/young workers — appears to have caused a new paradigm. Instead of workers/employment/unemployment causing a wage inflation spiral, AI and robotics are replacing human labor at a rapid rate. Whereas before we thought it would be 20-50 years before impacting economic models, it appears to already be happening. We don’t know the impact yet, but likely this will be good for inflation (eg no wage inflation.) However, it will be devastating to workers’ incomes. Though income inequality will likely be justified, it won’t be a good thing since everyone will earn next to nothing. There are still a few years for this to play out, so downward pressure on wage inflation will not be felt in time for our current fiscal fiasco.

The second part — consumer spending and debt — has been increasing throughout the Fed’s rate rises fueled in part by the stronger dollar. As long as there is strong consumer demand, there are inflationary pressures. The GDP has been increasing to historic highs during the Fed rate rises. The greater the consumer debt the more severe the inevitable recession will be (multiplied by how much technology replaces workers.) In addition, climate change disasters and ill health effects are growing exponentially. Consumer spending and mass consumption through the exploitation of natural resources is the greatest long-term risk to world economics (and human life.)

The last part — government spending and debt – is the real part of the worst to come in the short term. The increase in the price of the dollar has kept marketplace interest rates artificially low. Over the last several years, the government has budgeted huge multi-trillion dollar spending packages. Most of this money has yet to be borrowed and spent (see debt limit crisis.). When the money is borrowed, the price of the dollar will get hammered, and consumers will feel a huge jump in inflation of imported goods. Long term marketplace interest rates will come under severe pressure. The Fed will be forced to buy Treasuries and print money. This is also hugely inflationary. Next, when the money is spent, hundreds of millions of dollars will be pumped into the economy causing a shift in the demand curve for many goods and services. Again, this is biggly inflationary. A microcosm of what’s to come can be seen in the stimulus checks. The 3.2k/person stimulus checks caused this first little bump in inflation we are seeing now. This is just a drop in the bucket compared to the trillions of government stimulus yet to come. There are some Republicans trying to squash the borrowing/spending, but I doubt they will be successful. Soo….

In conclusion, it will be near impossible to curb inflation through monetary policy. The greatest risk to short term world economics is US fiscal policy.

UPDATE: November 9, 2023

Attention armchair economists, investors, and homeowners:
the 30-year Treasury auction was “bad” today
… when I say bad, I mean bad for those not investing in Treasuries.

What does it mean? The government went to borrow money today, and people didn’t want to lend them money. The 30-year interest rate spiked higher. This is because the government is borrowing record amounts of money.

A Double Whammy
This has two negative feedback loops.
1) the higher interest rates mean the government has to borrow more money to make the interest payments… resulting in higher budget deficits… resulting in more borrowing… resulting in higher interest rates, etc.
2) the government is borrowing the current trillions of dollars over the next couple years… but they have yet to spend it… spending the trillions will result in inflation… which will result in higher interest rates… causing a larger deficit… requiring more borrowing, etc.

The Greatest Risks to the US Economy

  1. Climate Change
  2. Government Spending / Debt
  3. Lack of Immigration

Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory).

The Age of Loss and Damage is a new way of thinking about economics by combining economics, climate science, statistics, and physics. Until now, economic models have been unfit to capture the full extent of climate damage. Traditionally, “integrated assessment models” (IAMs) were used to forecast “shock” events. IAMs use “quadratic function” to calculate GDP losses by squaring the temperature change, yet ignore other methods (such as the exponential function) that are better suited for rapid change. “Climate change is fundamentally different to other shocks because once it has hit, it doesn’t go away,” said Thierry Philipponnat, author of a report by Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public interest NGO on financial issues. “And if the fundamental assumption is flawed, all the rest makes little sense — if any.”

Reuters reported, “Critics say this (IAMs) choice is doomed to underplay the likely impact – particularly if the planet hits environmental tipping points in which damage is not only irreversible but happens at an ever-accelerating rate.” Thierry Philipponnat’s report, Finance in a Hot House World, concludes: “Climate risk is growing to disruptive levels throughout the financial system and the guardians of financial stability urgently need to adapt their tools to regain control.” The report calls for economic models that do not mislead, scenario analyses that prepare the market, and a new prudential tool to address the build-up of systemic climate risk.

Traditional economics is based upon the “costs and benefits” to society. Since there are no known long-term benefits of climate change to society, the Age of Loss and Damage economics focuses on the exponential costs of climate change to society.

Loss and damage litigation against oil companies and governments will change world economics.

In the spring of 2023, the USA suspended their national debt ceiling. Included in the debt ceiling suspension is a provision for unlimited emergency federal spending. The result is the government can continue to ignore the causes of climate change and instead give trillion-dollar subsidies to the fossil fuel industry through emergency disaster relief. Yes, another vicious circle — more fossil fuels subsidies result in more climate catastrophes resulting in more fossil fuel subsidies, etc. The end result will be additional trillions in government borrowing while the standard of living declines.

According to NOAA, in 2023 (as of November 8), there have been 25 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect United States. These events included 1 drought event, 2 flooding events, 19 severe storm events, 1 tropical cyclone event, 1 wildfire event, and 1 winter storm event. This is the largest number of climate disasters recorded with a notable increase in extreme precipitation events (violent rain).

Meanwhile, the US politicians also fail to address the declining and aging population. By restricting immigration, the government is forcing the acceleration of AI and robotics technology. Although this is great for “productivity”, neither AI nor robots pay taxes. The US economy is based on population growth. Increased emergency spending and a declining tax base results in insolvency.

ALSO SEE: The Economic Monsters: Inflation and Interest Rates

UPDATE 2024: Economic Facts on Immigration, Budget Deficits and Inflation

Business, Finance, and Economics

bookmark_borderCOVID-19: Increased Risk of Autoimmune Diseases

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse

Not only is COVID-19 known to cause immune system disorders, post-COVID also increases the risk of autoimmune disease.

There are multiple ways COVID has been shown to weaken the immune system (Immunocompromised) including: Destruction of Good Gut Bacteria Resulting in a Compromised Immune System, Dysfunctional Kynurenine Pathway, Down Regulating NAD+, Up Regulating IDO, Rogue Antibodies, Exacerbates Underlying Conditions, and Post–COVID-19 Associated with Immune Cell Infiltration and Altered Gene Expression.

Autoimmunity does not mean the same thing as immunocompromised.   When you are immunocompromised, your immune system is under-performing.  If you are immunocompromised, you have a weakened immune system with a reduced ability to fight infections and other diseases. Autoimmune diseases are usually associated with an overactive immune system that mistakenly attacks healthy cells.  COVID can cause both immunocompromised conditions and autoimmunity diseases. “COVID-19 itself shares some similarities with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases, which could be a challenge for diagnostics.”

The matched cohort study Incident autoimmune diseases in association with a SARS-CoV-2 infection found:
Incident autoimmune diseases in association with a SARS-CoV-2 infection
“We found a 42.63% higher likelihood of acquiring autoimmunity for patients who had suffered from COVID-19.”

Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with an increased risk of developing new-onset autoimmune diseases after the acute phase of infection.

A study published in the journal Lancet Risk of autoimmune diseases in patients with COVID-19 found:

“After matching, the COVID-19 cohort exhibited significantly higher risks of rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, systemic lupus erythematosus, dermatopolymyositis, systemic sclerosis, Sjögren’s syndrome, mixed connective tissue disease, Behçet’s disease, polymyalgia rheumatica, vasculitis, psoriasi, inflammatory bowel disease, celiac disease, type 1 diabetes mellitus and mortality.”

The study, titled “Iron Dysregulation and Inflammatory Stress Erythropoiesis Associated with Long-Term Outcome of COVID-19,” reveals that Long-COVID is linked to elevated levels of C-reactive protein and prolonged elevation of cytokines compared to healthy controls. Iron dysregulation is a common occurrence after infections, as the body swiftly moves iron out of the bloodstream to prevent it from becoming a potential breeding ground for harmful bacteria. The study suggests that defects in iron homeostasis, dysregulated erythropoiesis, and immune dysfunction resulting from COVID-19 may contribute to inefficient oxygen transport, inflammatory imbalances, and persistent symptoms. The information on autoimmune diseases emphasizes that an excessive release of cytokines, which are signaling molecules involved in immune responses, can lead to an exaggerated inflammatory response. This heightened inflammation has the potential to damage tissues and contribute to autoimmune diseases, where the immune system mistakenly attacks healthy cells.

The study: Iron dysregulation and inflammatory stress erythropoiesis associates with long-term outcome of COVID-19

Also see: COVID-19 Compromises Your Immune System (Immunocompromised)

COVID-19 Index

bookmark_borderClimate Change and Cigarette Litigation

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
2016 and 2023

In 2016, I had said: What will create the change needed?
The oil industry is going to be like the tobacco industry. The consumers are going to claim they were misled about the dangers of burning fossil fuels and will file lawsuits against the oil companies. You will not be able to buy oil or get insurance at a reasonable price (similar to what happened to cigarette smokers, or oil could be banned altogether.)

In 2022, WGUR Massachusetts reported, “State attorneys general from around the nation, including here in Massachusetts, are suing fossil fuel companies over climate change. Late last month, the state’s highest court rejected ExxonMobil’s bid to dismiss a lawsuit by Attorney General Maura Healey. And yes, you’ve seen this movie before. The states took Big Tobacco to court, and they won. The 1998 Master Settlement Agreement imposed tight restrictions on how tobacco companies can promote cigarettes, and requires tobacco makers to pay billions of dollars in damages to the states annually, for as long as they do business in the U.S.”

Commonwealth v. Exxon Mobil Corp.
Massachusetts High Court Affirmed Denial of Motion to Dismiss Attorney General’s Climate Change-Related Enforcement Action Against Exxon. The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court affirmed a trial court’s denial of Exxon Mobil Corporation’s (Exxon’s) special motion to dismiss the Massachusetts Attorney General’s enforcement action alleging that Exxon’s communications with investors and consumers related to climate change constituted unfair and deceptive practices. Exxon filed the special motion under Massachusetts’s anti-SLAPP (Strategic Litigation Against Public Participation) law, which protects parties exercising their right of petition. The Supreme Judicial Court held that the anti-SLAPP law did not apply to government enforcement actions brought by the Attorney General. The court found that this interpretation was grounded in the statutory language, the rules of construction applicable to enforcement of statutes against the Commonwealth, and the legislative history and purpose of the anti-SLAPP law.

In 2023, the BBC reported, “The findings add to ongoing pressure on the company over what it knew about climate change. Campaigners allege it spread misinformation in order to protect its business interests in fossil fuels and are suing the company in a number of US courts. ExxonMobil’s private research predicted how burning fossil fuels would warm the planet but the company publicly denied the link.”

The report published in Science will be used as evidence against ExxonMobil:
Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

However, ExxonMobil continues to deny the facts. “This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how “Exxon Knew” are wrong in their conclusions,” the company told BBC News.

“It really underscores the stark hypocrisy of ExxonMobil leadership, who knew that their own scientists were doing this very high quality modelling work and had access to that privileged information while telling the rest of us that climate models were bunk,” Naomi Oreskes, professor of the history of science at Harvard University, told BBC News.

“Our analysis allows us for the first time to actually put a number on what Exxon knew, which is that the burning of their fossil fuel products was going to heat the planet by about 0.2C of warming every decade,” says co-author Geoffrey Supran, associate professor of environmental science and policy at the University of Miami.

“Their excellent climate modelling was at least comparable in performance to one of the most influential and well-regarded climate scientists of modern history,” Prof Supran said, comparing ExxonMobil’s work to Nasa’s James Hansen who sounded the alarm on climate in 1988.

Prof Oreskes said the findings show that ExxonMobil “knowingly misled” the public and governments. “They had all this information at their disposal but they said very, very different things in public,” she explained.

The research, published in the academic journal Science, also suggests that ExxonMobil had reasonable estimates for how emissions would need to be reduced in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change in a world warmed by 2C or more.

Their scientists also correctly rejected the theory that an ice age was coming at a time when other researchers were still debating the prospect.

The findings add to ongoing pressure on the company over what it knew about climate change. Campaigners allege it spread misinformation in order to protect its business interests in fossil fuels and are suing the company in a number of US courts.

Global Warming and Anthropologic Climate Change

bookmark_borderInvestment Recommendation: Savings Bonds / I Bonds

Posted on by admin

January 11, 2023

One of the best investments is Treasury Direct I Bonds. I Bonds’ interest rates are determined by the rate of inflation.

The rate of return on January 11, 2023 is 6.89%.

I Bonds can be purchased directly from the Treasury Department without a middle man, brokerage, or bank. There is no risk of losing your principle investment. They are redeemable after 12 months with three months interest penalty. No penalty after 5 years. The maturity is 30 years. Tax reporting of interest can be deferred until redemption or final maturity. If you use the money for qualified higher education expenses, you may not have to pay tax on the earnings.

About Inflation and Interest Rates

Business, Finance, and Economics

bookmark_borderCOVID-19 Compromises Your Immune System (Immunocompromised)

Posted on by admin

By Daniel Brouse

SARS-CoV-2 and the results of COVID-19 cause long-term immune system dysfunction. That is to say COVID results in a compromised immune system.

* SARS-CoV-2 infection weakens immune-cell response
The magnitude and quality of a key immune cell’s response to vaccination with two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine were considerably lower in people with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to people without prior infection, a study has found. In addition, the level of this key immune cell that targets the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was substantially lower in unvaccinated people with COVID-19 than in vaccinated people who had never been infected. Importantly, people who recover from SARS-CoV-2 infection and then get vaccinated are more protected than people who are unvaccinated. These findings suggest that the virus damages an important immune-cell response.

* Destruction of Good Gut Bacteria Resulting in a Compromised Immune System
Gut microbiome composition was significantly altered in patients with COVID-19 compared with non-COVID-19 individuals.

* Dysfunctional Kynurenine Pathway
“Targeted and untargeted metabolomics analyses identified altered tryptophan metabolism into the kynurenine pathway, which regulates inflammation and immunity.”

* Down Regulating NAD+
“NAD regulates the inflammatory response in immune and non-immune cells through Sirtuins. Epigenetic regulation of histones and non-histone proteins is induced by sirtuins and is essential for the development, reprogramming, and differentiation of the immune system and its related pathologies. A deregulation of the NAD+ levels has been associated with metabolic diseases and aging-related diseases, including neurodegeneration, defective immune responses, and cancer.”

* Up Regulating IDO
Indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO) is an immune checkpoint molecule in the sense that it is an immunomodulatory enzyme produced by alternatively activated macrophages and other immunoregulatory cells. IDO is known to suppress T and NK cells, generate Tregs and myeloid-derived suppressor cells, and also supports angiogenesis.

* Rogue Antibodies
Autoantibodies are antibodies (immune proteins) that mistakenly attack a person’s own healthy tissues and organs. SARS-CoV-2 infection, is associated with many different clinical features that are commonly found in autoimmune diseases, including arthralgias, myalgias, fatigue, sicca, and rashes.

* Dysregulation of the innate immune system, i.e. “cytokine storm”
It is important to note that the severity of disease in humans is not determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection, which may lead to dysregulation of the innate immune system, i.e. “cytokine storm” (Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better)

* Reinfection Greater Risks & Exacerbates Underlying Conditions
The evidence shows that reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and damage to multiple organ systems. COVID exacerbates underlying conditions including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental heal<th, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders

* Post–COVID-19 Associated with Immune Cell Infiltration and Altered Gene Expression
COVID causes long-term immune dysfunction. “These findings indicate that T cell–mediated inflammation persists in the olfactory epithelium long after SARS-CoV-2 has been eliminated from the tissue, suggesting a mechanism for long-term post–COVID-19 smell loss.”

* Elevated Cytokines and Low Iron
Defects in iron homeostasis, dysregulated erythropoiesis contribute to inefficient oxygen transport, inflammatory imbalances, and persistent symptoms. The information on autoimmune diseases emphasizes that an excessive release of cytokines, which are signaling molecules involved in immune responses, can lead to an exaggerated inflammatory response. This heightened inflammation has the potential to damage tissues and contribute to autoimmune diseases, where the immune system mistakenly attacks healthy cells.

Also see: COVID-19: Increased Risk of Autoimmune Diseases

COVID-19 Index

bookmark_borderGreen Energy Technology Stocks

Posted on by admin

WARNING: an investor should become familiar with their rights and responsibilities as an owner PRIOR to investing.

This is a beginner-intermediate level climate and investor activist portfolio. Stocks are not listed in any particular order. Some of the best performing stocks are not listed because of their questionable environmental impact, business ethics, and country of operation (in particular lithium and cobalt mining.) They are discussed in the advanced portfolio.

The stocks are an educational tool to ownership of the climate crisis. An owner has the duty to understand and implement sustainable practices, human rights, and fiscal responsibility. Investors have particular rights as activists depending on the country of incorporation and operation. In the USA, common shareholders are granted six rights: voting power, ownership, the right to transfer ownership, dividends, the right to inspect corporate documents, and the right to sue for wrongful acts.

Everybody has the responsibility not to pollute.

RYCEY — Rolls Royce / advanced small modular nuclear reactors, green hydrogen and jet engines
LMT — Lockheed Martin / GridStar Flow is an innovative redox flow battery
SSUMY — Sumitomo Electric / redox flow batteries oxidation-reduction reaction of ions of vanadium
MAXN — Maxeon Solar Technologies / designs and manufactures Maxeon and SunPower brand solar panels
NEP – Nextera Energy Partners / portfolio of renewable generation assets consisting of wind and solar projects in North America
HDRO — Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF / green hydrogen
BE — Bloom Energy Corp / fuel cells, green hydrogen
BLDP — Ballard Power Systems Inc / proton exchange membrane fuel cell, green hydrogen
TOSYY — Toshiba Corp / green hydrogen, mini-nuclear plants
BP — British energy / green hydrogen, solar, wind
BAESY — BAE Systems / mini-nuclear development
SIEGY — Siemens / wind, green hydrogen
SMR — Nuscale Power / advanced small modular nuclear reactors
LGO — Largo / vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB)
GWH — ESS Tech Inc / iron flow batteries
FREY — FREYR Battery / semi-solid lithium-ion battery
QS — QuantumScape / develops solid state lithium metal batteries

Sidd said: I haven’t been following publicly traded companies. But for long term bets SSUMI,TOSYY,SIEGY, and surprisingly one that’s not on your list, AEP has some interesting prospects in renewable in spite of their history.

The reason I like Sumitomo, Toshiba, and Siemens is that they are all companies with a long history of bringing large and complicated engineering to market… successfully.

bookmark_borderManaged Retreat: Relocating Due to Climate Change Extreme Weather Events

Posted on by admin

The Politico article Dream homes and disasters: Is the government ready to confront climate risk? explains the need for “Managed Retreat”.

“The fact that official Washington is finally addressing the concept of some areas being too vulnerable to insure is noteworthy….”

“For decades, lawmakers and federal agencies in Washington, D.C., have resisted taking harsh action to pull federal insurance funding from especially vulnerable areas, even as climate change made a mockery of 100-year projections…. Now, in the wake of disasters including the deadly Kentucky floods and Hurricane Ian, official Washington is openly wrestling with what to do about the hundreds of thousands of people who are living in areas that climate change is making too risky to inhabit.”

“If large numbers of communities are rendered undesirable because of their climate, local and regional real estate markets could tank. Expensive public infrastructure like water treatment systems and roads could be abandoned or become obsolete as people relocate. Heavy taxpayer spending is likely. Yet many experts say that proactively steering people away from places climate change is making nonviable will seem a bargain compared with the costs of rebuilding in the shadow of past and future disasters, floods and droughts.”

“… as climate change makes disasters more frequent and severe, a once-taboo strategy known as “managed retreat” is getting more serious consideration in Congress and the federal government.”

“Human beings are terrible at assessing risk,” Kralicek (the emergency manager for Tulsa and Tulsa County) said. “We’re awful at it. Which is why things like casinos do so well.”

Recent federal policy changes might help to limit those losses. But until there’s a wholesale rethink of how — and where — cities, towns and counties develop, there will be more hardship.

“The piper is gonna come call, and at some point you got to pay,” Kralicek added. “And you just got to figure out who’s paying.”

Making people pay
One way to push people to make rational decisions is to force them to pay more if they don’t.

In October 2021, FEMA rolled out its long-awaited revamp to the federal flood insurance program, known as Risk Rating 2.0. The effort aims to align insurance premium pricing with the actual flood risk homes face. FEMA hopes doing so will limit losses to the chronically indebted, taxpayer-funded federal flood insurance program and also signal to would-be homeowners that some places face significant danger.

“There is no greater risk-communication tool than a pricing signal. When we distort the price, we distort their understanding of risk,” said Wright, the former FEMA flood insurance chief.

Risk Rating 2.0: Equity in Action
FEMA Flood Insurance Risk Rating 2.0

FEMA is updating the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) risk rating methodology through the implementation of a new pricing methodology called Risk Rating 2.0.

FEMA is committed to building a culture of preparedness across the nation. Purchasing flood insurance is the first line of defense against flood damage and a step toward a quicker recovery following a flood.

Since the 1970s, rates have been predominantly based on relatively static measurements, emphasizing a property’s elevation within a zone on a Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM).

This approach does not incorporate as many flooding variables as Risk Rating 2.0. Risk Rating 2.0 is not just a minor improvement, but a transformational leap forward. Risk Rating 2.0 enables FEMA to set rates that are fairer and ensures rate increases and decreases are both equitable.

FEMA is building on years of investment in flood hazard information by incorporating private sector data sets, catastrophe models and evolving actuarial science.

With Risk Rating 2.0, FEMA now has the capability and tools to address rating disparities by incorporating more flood risk variables. These include flood frequency, multiple flood types—river overflow, storm surge, coastal erosion and heavy rainfall—and distance to a water source along with property characteristics such as elevation and the cost to rebuild.

Currently, policyholders with lower-valued homes are paying more than their share of the risk while policyholders with higher-valued homes are paying less than their share of the risk. Because Risk Rating 2.0 considers rebuilding costs, FEMA can equitably distribute premiums across all policyholders based on home value and a property’s unique flood risk.

Rates can increase 18% per year.

More articles on Flood Insurance, Extreme Weather Events and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderCOVID-19: reinfection increases risks of death, hospitalization and damage to multiple organs

Posted on by admin

The study Acute and postacute sequelae associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was published in the Journal Nature.

* The evidence shows that reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and damage to multiple organ systems
* COVID exacerbates underlying conditions including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders

First infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is associated with increased risk of acute and postacute death and sequelae in various organ systems. Compared to no reinfection, reinfection contributed additional risks of death, hospitalization, and sequelae including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders. The risks were evident regardless of vaccination status. The risks were most pronounced in the acute phase but persisted in the postacute phase at 6 months. Compared to noninfected controls, cumulative risks and burdens of repeat infection increased according to the number of infections. Limitations included a cohort of mostly white males. The evidence shows that reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and sequelae in multiple organ systems in the acute and postacute phase. Reducing overall burden of death and disease due to SARS-CoV-2 will require strategies for reinfection prevention.

MORE ON COVID: COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 / Novel Coronavirus

bookmark_borderGlobal Carbon Budget 2022

Posted on by admin

The Global Carbon Budget 2022 was published by Earth System Science Data.

The report says if emissions aren’t brought down, the world will use up its 1.5-degree-Celsius carbon budget — the amount of CO2 we can emit and stay within 1.5C — within nine years. After go beyond 1.5C the amount of tipping points crossed will bring on irreversible and exponential increasing rates of catastrophic damage.

Global fossil CO2 emissions (including cement carbonation) further increased in 2022, being now slightly above their pre-COVID-19 pandemic 2019 level. The 2021 emission increase was 0.46 GtC yr−1 (1.7 GtCO2 yr−1), bringing 2021 emissions to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (36.3 ± 1.8 GtCO2 yr−1), same as the 2019 emissions level. Preliminary estimates based on data available suggest fossil CO2 emissions continued to increase by 1.0 % in 2022 relative to 2021 (0.1 % to 1.9 %), bringing emissions of 10.0 GtC yr−1 (36.6 GtCO2 yr−1), slightly above the 2019 level.

Emissions from coal, oil, and gas in 2022 are expected to be above their 2021 levels (by 1.0 %, 2.2 % and −0.2 % respectively). Regionally, emissions in 2022 are expected to have decreased by 0.9 % in China (3.1 GtC, 11.4 GtCO2) and 0.8 % in the European Union (0.8 GtC, 2.8 GtCO2) but increased by 1.5 % in the United States (1.4 GtC, 5.1 GtCO2), 6 % in India (0.8 GtC, 2.9 GtCO2), and 1.7 % in the rest of the world (4.2 GtC, 15.4 GtCO2).

atmospheric CO2 concentration
atmospheric CO2 concentration

Anthropologic Climate Change