Category: Government

bookmark_borderClimate Change Case Study: How to Shutdown a Climate Denier

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by Daniel Brouse
Climate Scientist

Climate Change Case Study:
How to shutdown a climate denier making a “false narrative” political stand

Darren Wolfe is the self-proclaimed “world’s first authoritarian libertarian”

Darren Wolfe
Darren Wolfe

In this study, we show how to prove liars about climate change are lying.

According to an analysis from the Center for American Progress, there are still 139 Republicans in the 117th Congress, including 109 representatives and 30 senators, who refuse to acknowledge the scientific evidence of human-caused climate change. All 139 of these climate-denying Republicans have made recent statements casting doubt on the clear, established scientific consensus that the world is warming—and that human activity is to blame. These same 139 climate-denying Republicans have received more than $61 million in lifetime contributions from the coal, oil, and gas industries.

Darren Wolfe replied: Did human CO2 emissions cause the Medieval Warm Period? How about the Roman Warm Period? Or the Minoan Warm Period? No, they didn’t, just like they aren’t causing the Modern Warm Period now. These are natural cycles the Earth goes through.

I responded:  Wrong. Everything you said is incorrect. I’m a climate scientist. Read my work. This peer reviewed paper addresses your misconception on natural cycles:
Climate Change: How Long Is Ever?

And here is the math if you want to test your knowledge of physics.
Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration

And here is the basic peer reviewed primer (written at an 8th grade level) for help gaining the basic concepts. “Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). That means global warming is accelerating at a rapid rate in a complex way.”
Anthropogenic Global Warming: The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Darren Wolfe replied: I don’t see much but unsubstantiated assertions. There’s no explanation of how CO2 is causing warming. To repeat, the Earth goes through natural warming and cooling cycles. We’re in a warm one now.

The article is wrong about deforestation. Per NASA the Earth is getting greener 
https://www.nasa.gov/…/carbon-dioxide-fertilization…/

Here are 1600 scientists and professionals declaring that there’s no crisis 
https://clintel.org/world-climate-declaration/

Here’s Greenpeace founder, Patrick Moore on the AGW hoax 
Dr. Patrick Moore– Carbon and Climate Catastrophe

I responded: Are you literate? Do you have an education? Did you read my peer reviewed papers? You have not supplied a single scientific nor peer reviewed paper. Everything you have said is incorrect, ignorant, and arrogant. Sorry, but I do not suffer fools gladly. You are a danger to yourself and others. Seek help. Get educated.

By the way, you face potential legal action for posting the clintel link on my timeline. The “paper” is known to be fraudulent. Shame on you.
Fact check: Did 1,200 climate experts sign viral misinformation?

Darren Wolfe responded: Well Mr Educated, is this how you have a discussion? Insulting people and threatening legal action? You haven’t debunked a single point I’ve made. All you do is appeal to authority. BTW, the government spends $billions on climate research. Guess what side of the debate you have to be on to ride that gravy train. You worship that bought and paid for “consensus” while posting articles critical of people connected to oil companies. Both sides have monetary incentives for what they say. Even the writers of peer reviewed papers and the reviewers too. Try looking at the facts yourself and stop the threats and insults. If you’re not interested in discussions why are you posting?

I replied: You weren’t having a discussion. You were spreading lies and misinformation. And, no… there is no appeal to authority. Everything I’ve said and written is based on my own research. Not opinion. Not belief. Our research has nothing to do with government, money, nor consensus. We are the team that first concluded — “Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). That means global warming is accelerating at a rapid rate in a complex way. ” So, you are completely off-base in your false assumptions… as well as your personal authoritarian point-of-view. You have yet to ask an intelligent question. If you want to learn the facts and have a meaningful discussion, why not ask some good questions?

Darren Wolfe responded: I guess I’m the world’s first authoritarian libertarian. Anyway, I’m not the one threatening legal action to silence a different POV. Who is the authoritarian now?
Let me repackage what I’ve already posted. Do you agree that the Earth goes through natural warming and cooling cycles that have nothing to do with CO2 emissions?

I replied: No. Not during the existence of humans has the Earth warmed to the levels of July 2023. That’s why I asked you to read my peer reviewed research. You also need to learn the difference between your opinion/point of view and facts. I’m not trying to silence your point of view. I’m trying to silence your dangerous and inaccurate information. What you are doing is equivalent to telling people to ignore the fire alarm in a crowded theater during a fire. So, back to your good question. No. The Earth has never been through a warming cycle like the one caused by burning fossil fuels. Climate Change: How Long Is Ever?

Darren Wolfe responded: Actually it was warmer thousands of years ago coming out of the last ice age
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/…/file/4385537/still_forpost.0.jpg

I replied: No. Again, you do not listen nor learn. Instead you post a misleading link… then make statements that are not true — “Actually it was warmer thousands of years ago coming out of the last ice age.” No. It was not. Shame on you. Your point of view is wrong. You should apologize and change your point of view. More importantly, you should not purposely propagate false and misleading information.

Darren Wolfe responded: What are you talking about misleading? Peak temperatures were reached thousands of years ago. Temperatures have been relatively stable since with a slight downward trend:

“By 5000 to 3000 BC average global temperatures reached their maximum level during the Holocene and are estimated by some to be 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today. Climatologists call this period either the Climatic Optimum or the Holocene Optimum.”

ATMO336 – Fall 2016

I replied: You are an idiot. Once again, you provide a bogus link written by a student years ago… and make false statements about it. You are a liar. You are WRONG. Today’s temperatures are 1.5 degrees C higher than they were 3,000 to 5,000 ago. Sit down and shut up. The next lie you post on my timeline will result in action against you. You are causing harm to my work and reputation by knowingly making false and misleading statements. Cease and Desist.

Darren Wolfe responded: Ja wohl Herr Gestapoman! You really need a shrink. I’m merely trying to have a discussion with you. Are you really so weak and insecure that you can’t handle respectful disagreement? I will cease and desist because I’m tired of your dogma. You win and freedom of speech loses. I hope you’re happy now.

I concluded: No. Freedom of speech wins! Liars lose. This is not a respectful disagreement… this has been an ignoramus making a “false narrative” political stand on a climate scientist’s page.

Climate Denial Part II: Freedom of Speech
Climate Denial Part III: The Climate Denier Syndrome

What you can do today. How to save the planet.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change: The End of Times

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by Daniel Brouse
July 21, 2023

What will the “End of Times” look like?

In the 1990’s, we wrote a paper on the worst-case scenario entitled, “The Impact of Governance & Globalization on Forecasting (The Tunnel Under Thesis).” The theory predicted that forecasting would become increasing difficult. “The result — a figurative, as well as, literal tunneling underground.”

Since that time, forecasting has become increasing more difficult. “In general, as energy is added to a system, the fluctuations in the system increase. So, we expect more storms, more droughts, more wildfires, more floods, more fluctuations of all kinds. What we are saying is that weather conditions will become more volatile due to the impact of humans,” said Mukherjee and Brouse. (2004)

In a report published in Nature entitled Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, data analyst and associate professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at the University of Hawaii Manoa, Camilo Mora, said climate hazards aggravated 58% of all known human pathogens. That is over half of infectious diseases discovered since the end of the Roman Empire. 58% of an authoritative list of infectious diseases documented to have impacted humanity have already been shown to be aggravated by climatic hazards — a finding the researchers found “shocking,” Mora said.

Movement of people and animals caused by climate is one factor. Warming at higher latitudes allowed vectors and pathogens to survive winter is another factor. The report goes on to say, “The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions.”

This research reveals more evidence that humans will have difficulty adapting to climate change, especially those in developing countries, Mora said. “The magnitude of the vulnerability when you think about one or two diseases — okay, sure, we can deal with that,” he said. “But when you’re talking about 58% of the diseases, and 58% of those diseases can be affected or triggered in 1,000 different ways. So that, to me, was also revealing of the fact that we’re not going to be able to adapt to climate change.”

In 2023, I wrote the paper, “Climate Change: How Long Is ‘Ever’?“. When we wrote the Tunnel Under Thesis, we forecast these events would not happen for centuries. We underestimated Man’s ignorance and arrogance. Fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have continued to set record highs. Humans have caused chain-reactions resulting in domino-effects, snowball effects, and feedback loops.

Events we thought would not happen in our lifetimes are happening now. My last resort emergency plan was to escape to Canada. (I am a dual citizen.) This summer that plan literally went up in smoke. “Beginning in March 2023, and with increased intensity starting in June, Canada has been affected by an ongoing, record-setting series of wildfires.” — Wikipedia

All of my life I have located my office and bedrooms in the uppermost southern exposure (preferably in the tree canopy.) I love sunlight, elevation, trees, fresh air, and wildlife. It is becoming ever more obvious my dreamlife is coming to an end, and I will be forced to tunnel under. For those forward thinkers, think about your poop. Pumping sewage above ground level will be a major problem at all times. In addition, the inability to pump flood water will become deadly during extreme weather events. In July of 2020 NPR reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida dropped unprecedented rainfall on several eastern states, killing dozens of people. Eleven of them were Queens residents who died when their basement apartments flooded.” In August of 2022 CNN reported, “Seoul has vowed to move some of the city’s poorest families out of underground and semi-subterranean homes after 13 people were killed in flooding caused by record rainfall this week, sparking public horror and calls for government accountability.” Drowning in your own poop may result for those unprepared.

Fresh air, water, food, and light will also be problematic; however, your most severe concern will likely be security. Those with supplies will be at high risk of being raped and looted. Good luck!

More From the Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee
February 26, 2023

Climate change poses many risks to real estate values. In general, as energy is added to a system, the fluctuations in the system increase. So, we expect more storms, more droughts, more wildfires, more floods, more fluctuations of all kinds. What we are saying is that weather conditions will become more volatile due to the impact of humans. For the most part, weather events will become more extreme. Even the momentum of rain will cause a harder rain to fall damaging roofs, sidewalks, and driveways.

Some of the most vulnerable real estate is along coastlines and near floodplains. The study published in the Journal Nature Unpriced climate risk and the potential consequences of overvaluation in US housing markets found:

Climate change impacts threaten the stability of the US housing market. In response to growing concerns that increasing costs of flooding are not fully captured in property values, we quantify the magnitude of unpriced flood risk in the housing market by comparing the empirical and economically efficient prices for properties at risk. We find that residential properties exposed to flood risk are overvalued by US$121–US$237 billion, depending on the discount rate. In general, highly overvalued properties are concentrated in counties along the coast with no flood risk disclosure laws and where there is less concern about climate change. Low-income households are at greater risk of losing home equity from price deflation, and municipalities that are heavily reliant on property taxes for revenue are vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls.

Sidd Mukherjee said, “Pay close attention to Figure 4 in the main paper (top left map, zoom in to max.) The red boundaries are where properties are seriously overvalued and where tax revenues will collapse after flooding.

High Flood Risk Real Estate (The darker the color the higher the risk)
High Flood Risk Real Estate (The darker the color the higher the risk)

Sidd goes on to say, “Don’t miss the supplementaries.”
Flood Risk to Real Estate Supplementaries

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderInvestment Recommendation: Savings Bonds / I Bonds

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January 11, 2023

One of the best investments is Treasury Direct I Bonds. I Bonds’ interest rates are determined by the rate of inflation.

The rate of return on January 11, 2023 is 6.89%.

I Bonds can be purchased directly from the Treasury Department without a middle man, brokerage, or bank. There is no risk of losing your principle investment. They are redeemable after 12 months with three months interest penalty. No penalty after 5 years. The maturity is 30 years. Tax reporting of interest can be deferred until redemption or final maturity. If you use the money for qualified higher education expenses, you may not have to pay tax on the earnings.

About Inflation and Interest Rates

Business, Finance, and Economics

bookmark_borderClimate Change: No Credible Pathway to 1.5C Limit

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The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) insisted there is “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place.” The report Climate change: No ‘credible pathway’ to 1.5C limit found:

National pledges to reduce harmful emissions offer little hope of avoiding climate disaster, UN climate experts said on Thursday, in an urgent appeal for a radical transformation of the energy sector, before it’s too late.

There’s “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place” today, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) insisted in a new report, despite legally binding promises made at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference to prevent average temperatures rising by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Uncomfortable truth
“This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.

“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster.”

Despite Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) promises made by governments in favour of reducing their carbon footprint, pledges made since the last climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 will lead to cuts of less than one per cent of projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions, according to UNEP.
Paltry reductions

This is the equivalent of just 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2, UNEP calculated, adding that only a 45 per cent emissions reduction will limit global warming to 1.5C.

As it stands today, latest data indicates that the world is on track for a temperature rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C by the end of this century.

“In the best-case scenario, full implementation of unconditional NDCs and additional net-zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8C increase, so there is hope. However, this scenario is not currently credible based on the discrepancy between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets,” UNEP said.
Fossil fuel-free solution

For the situation to improve, a “large-scale, rapid” and fossil fuel-free shake-up is needed of our “electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems” to cut emissions by 45 per cent to limit global warming to 1.5C, and by 30 per cent to keep average temperature rise to 2C, the UN agency explained.

And although the transformation towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is underway in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings, it needs to move “much faster”, the report concludes.

It found that electricity supply transformation had made most progress in some countries, amid dramatically reduced renewable electricity prices.

“It is a tall, and some would say impossible order, to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we must try,” said Ms. Andersen. “Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to species and ecosystems, and to every one of us.”
Food system reform

Rapid and lasting emissions cuts are needed in food production industries too, as this accounts for about a third of greenhouse gases, UNEP continued.

It noted that action in four areas – protection of natural ecosystems, dietary changes, improvements in farm food production and decarbonization of food supply chains – would reduce food system emissions by 2050 to around a third of current levels.

Global Warming

bookmark_borderClimate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now

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The UN’s United in Science 2022 release their report A multi-organization high-level compilation of the most recent science related to climate change, impacts and responses.

In order to avoid catastrophic climate change, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030. Currently, greenhouse gas emissions will INCREASE by 13% by 2030.

“According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.”

Countries’ climate promises still not enough to avoid catastrophic global warming
The current combined National Determined Contributions (NDCs)—meaning the countries’ national efforts to tackle emissions and mitigate climate change—are leading our planet to at least 2.5 degrees warming, a level deemed catastrophic by scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

According to the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue to rise,
despite emissions reductions in 2020 resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The Global Carbon Project also
notes that, in 2021, global fossil CO2 emissions returned to 2019 pre-pandemic levels after a large, but temporary, absolute
drop in emissions due to widespread lockdowns. These conditions are leading to increasing global surface temperature and
other climatic changes, as highlighted by the WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report, which found the most recent
seven years, 2015 to 2021, to be the warmest on record.

Looking forward, the Met Office (UK), in partnership with the World Climate Research Programme, found that there is a 48%
chance that, during at least one year in the next five years, annual mean temperature will temporarily be 1.5 °C higher than
in 1850-1900. Additionally, there is a 93% chance that at least one year in the same time period will be the hottest on record.
The UN Environment Programme’s latest Emissions Gap Report found that the full implementation of mitigation pledges
made by countries (as of 4 November 2021) is insufficient and will not keep global warming below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels. The report also found that the ambition of these pledges would need to be four times higher to keep global temperature
rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and seven times higher to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Enhanced mitigation action
is needed to prevent the goals of the Paris Agreement from slipping out of reach.

Without ambitious action, the physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change will be devastating. Irreversible
physical changes in the climate system, known as tipping points, can not be ruleld out and could have significant global
and regional consequences. According to the Urban Climate Change Research Network, cities – responsible for up to 70%
of human-caused emissions – will face increasing climate impacts that will intersect with socioeconomic inequalities.
Additionally, the WMO World Weather Research Programme highlights that it is the world’s most vulnerable populations
that will suffer the most, as has already been observed during recent extreme weather events.

Billions of people around the world are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As a result, adaptation and
disaster risk reduction are crucial to lower the risks to climate impacts. According to WMO and the UN Office for Disaster
Risk Reduction, early warning systems not only save lives and reduce losses and damages, but also contribute to disaster
risk reduction, and support climate change adaptation. However, less than half of all countries in the world have these
crucial systems and coverage is particuarly low in vulnerable countries. To address this issue, the United Nations Secretary-
General António Guterres called for new action to ensure every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems in
the next five years.

Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released highly anticipated Working Group reports
covering The Physical Science Basis; Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; and Mitigation of Climate Change, which are an
integral part of its Sixth Assessment Report. These important reports identify the strength of scientific agreement in these
different areas as well as where further research is needed.

The science is clear – urgent action is needed to mitigate emissions and adapt to our changing climate. The United Nations
system, along with its partners, will continue to provide world-leading science to inform decision-making and support
global climate action.

Global Warming.

bookmark_border10% of Canadian Homes Uninsurable Due to Extreme Weather and the Climate Crisis

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The Guardian reports The uninsurables: how storms and rising seas are making coastlines unliveable.

“In Canada, the number of uninsurable homes has reached 10%, according to industry figures. The Magdalen archipelago is losing half a metre each year to erosion, roads have fallen into the sea and the sand dunes that once offered protection from squalls are disappearing faster than they can be saved, but it is not just there. Most of Canada’s major cities are built on the frontlines of a changing climate – along rivers and coastlines or on flood plains.”

“Over the past 15 years, insurance claims from severe weather events in Canada – windstorms, flooding, wildfire and drought – have more than quadrupled. Seven of the country’s costliest disasters occurred in the last decade. Insurers now expect to disburse C$2bn (£1.3bn) in disaster-related payouts annually, with costs only expected to rise.”

“A federally run fund, meant to help communities build disaster-resilient infrastructure, is quickly running out of money years before it expires at the end of the decade. It has already received far more requests than it can pay for, and despite the federal government repeatedly topping it up, more than half of the money has been spent.”

“Without any sort of concerted effort or gameplan, that figure will only grow. We’re continuing to build in harm’s way, largely on water, because that’s where people love to be. And the modelling shows that these storm events are just going to become more frequent and more intense in the years ahead,” says Craig Stewart, vice-president of the IBC’s climate change and federal issues portfolio. “The risk is growing. And so far, our efforts at risk reduction have been terrible.”

“The private market, on its own, cannot handle the level of risk that’s escalating in the system without some sort of formal government backstop or direct participation.”

In the US, Florida has blocked insurers from withdrawing from the market for at least two months after Hurricane Ian. Officials in the US have also warned residents about the dangers of rebuilding in areas likely to suffer weather-related disasters.

In November 2021, a powerful “atmospheric river”, a plume of water-laden air, led to widespread flooding in the province of British Columbia. Highways and bridges were washed away and thousands of homes – built on an old lake bed that was a known flood plain – were submerged in turbid waters. The damage cost insurers nearly C$675m – with billions more in uninsured costs having to be borne by residents and government.

The floods also hit the town of Lytton, British Columbia, which a few months earlier had been the site of scorching temperatures before it was all but destroyed by a wildfire. In the aftermath, the uncertainty of how to rebuild – or whether to rebuild – has become a flashpoint.

“There was conflict between people who wanted to rebuild Lytton better, and those who were traumatised by the fire and they wanted to put their lives back together as quickly as possible without any change,” says Porter. “They didn’t want to be told what to do. They didn’t want outsiders coming in and telling them you must change your life in such a way.”

Governments are bracing for the mounting costs from extreme weather to upend life in cities. A recent report warned that floods and droughts could cost the global economy US$5.6tn by 2050.

More articles on Flood Insurance, Extreme Weather Events and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderHurricane Ian: Florida Becoming Uninhabitable

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October 2, 2022

How long would it take to go 100% green?
“It depends on cooperation. If we all cooperated, we could change over within 6 months. However, we don’t expect the climate deniers will cooperate. In the meantime, many countries plan to reduce fossil fuels by 2030. Some countries, such as China, are building nuclear plants. The UK will transition from natural gas to green hydrogen with most of the regulations in place by 2030.”

“The key to how fast the US transitions is in the cost to ourselves (since we don’t seem to care about the rest of the world.) This can already be seen in Florida and Louisiana where almost all of the homeowners/hazard insurance companies have pulled out. FEMA is a good place to focus our forecasts. FEMA’s flood insurance is the only government subsidized insurance available to everybody. When the government stops subsidizing extreme weather events, you will see an instant turnover to 100% green. The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is growing exponentially; therefore, we expect FEMA will be bankrupted in short order. At that time, much of US real estate will become worthless and the cost of burning fossil fuels will be deemed too costly. The people impacted by financial and life losses will litigate the fossil fuel industry out-of-business,” said climate scientist Daniel Brouse.

The Costs of Climate Change
Hurricane Ian will be one of the most costly disasters on record, both in terms of money and lives. Over 2 million people lost power. Roads and bridges were destroyed. Some inhabited islands literally got washed away. The hurricane was so powerful that it is difficult to calculate the number of deaths as the bodies can not be found.

The Insurance Journal reports:
Wind and storm-surge losses from Hurricane Ian could reach as $47 billion in Florida alone, a figure made larger by inflation and rising interest rates, the property analytics firm CoreLogic said in a new analysis.

“This is the costliest Florida storm since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992 and a record number of homes and properties were lost due to Hurricane Ian’s intense and destructive characteristics,” said Tom Larsen, associate vice president for hazard and risk management at CoreLogic.

“Hurricane Ian will forever change the real estate industry and city infrastructure,” Larsen said in a news release. “Insurers will go into bankruptcy, homeowners will be forced into delinquency and insurance will become less accessible in regions like Florida.”

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderWorldwide Droughts

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August 2022

There are droughts in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

* UN lists 23 countries that are in severe drought: Afghanistan, Angola, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Chile, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Pakistan, the United States and Zambia.

* U.S. officials declared the first-ever water shortage from the Colorado river that serves 40 million people in the West. Water levels at the largest reservoir on the Colorado River — Lake Mead — have fallen to record lows. Along its perimeter, a white “bathtub ring” of minerals outlines where the high water line once stood, underscoring the acute water challenges for a region facing a growing population and a drought that is being worsened by hotter, drier weather brought on by climate change.

* The silvery blue waters of the Great Salt Lake sprawl across the Utah desert, having covered an area nearly the size of Delaware for much of history. For years, though, the largest natural lake west of the Mississippi River has been shrinking. And a drought gripping the American West could make this year the worst yet.

* Baby salmon are dying by the thousands in one California river, and an entire run of endangered salmon could be wiped out in another. Fishermen who make their living off adult salmon, once they enter the Pacific Ocean, are sounding the alarm as blistering heat waves and extended drought in the U.S.

* Extreme drought in northern Mexico has left millions of residents without water.

* From the Atacama Desert to Patagonia, a 13-year megadrought is straining Chile’s freshwater resources to breaking point.

* As Europe’s rivers run dry in a devastating drought that scientists say could prove the worst in 500 years, their receding waters are revealing long-hidden artefacts, from Roman camps to ghost villages and second world war shipwrecks. The so-called “hunger stone” at Děčín is one of dozens in central European rivers engraved to mark their levels during historic droughts – and warn future generations of the famine and hardship likely to follow each time they became visible.

* More and more droughts: How both India and the world is getting affected and what it will lead to. The head of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Ibrahim Thiaw, has said that “Humanity is at a crossroads” when it comes to managing drought, and accelerating means of slowing it down must happen “urgently, using every tool we can.

* Pakistan is one of the top 23 countries suffering from a severe drought emergency, a statement issued by the Ministry of Climate Change said. Desertification caused by human and environmental factors has left Pakistan scarred, leading to environmental degradation, loss of soil fertility, loss of biodiversity, and reduction in land productivity, exacerbating the vulnerability of the country’s fragile local communities.

* China issues nationwide drought alert amid extreme heat. A record-breaking 262 weather stations tied or broke their highest temperature on record during the long-running heat wave, which has increased in intensity during the past week. At least 244 cities across China could experience temperatures above 104°F (40°C) on Friday and more than 400 additional cities could see temperatures above 98°F (37°C). The Poyang Lake in central China’s Jiangxi province has shrunk to a quarter of its normal size for this time of year and some 66 rivers in 34 counties in southwestern China have dried up,

* UN food agency scales up assistance for Horn of Africa as millions suffer from drought. Levels of hunger soar in Horn of Africa after back-to-back droughts, threat of famine looms, says World Food Program. Since the start of the year, 9 million more people have slipped into severe food insecurity across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, leaving 22 million people struggling to find enough food to eat, WFP’s regional office in Nairobi said in a statement. “People here have been waiting years for rain – but they cannot wait any longer for life-saving food assistance. The world needs to act now to protect the most vulnerable communities from the threat of widespread famine in the Horn of Africa,” Beasley said.

* In Texas, the heat and lack of rain have uncovered dinosaur tracks from 113 million years ago. “Due to the excessive drought conditions this past summer, the river dried up completely in most locations, allowing for more tracks to be uncovered here in the park,” the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department said in a statement.

* A drought and heat wave in southwestern China have revealed 600-year-old Buddhist statues on a rocky outcrop in the Yangtze River.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America released the study Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios:

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses.

The Potential for Climate Catastrophe
There are four key reasons to be concerned over the potential of a global climate catastrophe. First, there are warnings from history. Climate change (either regional or global) has played a role in the collapse or transformation of numerous previous societies and in each of the five mass extinction events in Phanerozoic Earth history (38). The current carbon pulse is occurring at an unprecedented geological speed and, by the end of the century, may surpass thresholds that triggered previous mass extinctions. The worst-case scenarios in the IPCC report project temperatures by the 22nd century that last prevailed in the Early Eocene, reversing 50 million years of cooler climates in the space of two centuries.

This is particularly alarming, as human societies are locally adapted to a specific climatic niche. The rise of large-scale, urbanized agrarian societies began with the shift to the stable climate of the Holocene ∼12,000 y ago. Since then, human population density peaked within a narrow climatic envelope with a mean annual average temperature of ∼13 °C. Even today, the most economically productive centers of human activity are concentrated in those areas. The cumulative impacts of warming may overwhelm societal adaptive capacity.
Second, climate change could directly trigger other catastrophic risks, such as international conflict, or exacerbate infectious disease spread, and spillover risk. These could be potent extreme threat multipliers.

Third, climate change could exacerbate vulnerabilities and cause multiple, indirect stresses (such as economic damage, loss of land, and water and food insecurity) that coalesce into system-wide synchronous failures. This is the path of systemic risk. Global crises tend to occur through such reinforcing “synchronous failures” that spread across countries and systems, as with the 2007–2008 global financial crisis (44). It is plausible that a sudden shift in climate could trigger systems failures that unravel societies across the globe.
The potential of systemic climate risk is marked: The most vulnerable states and communities will continue to be the hardest hit in a warming world, exacerbating inequities. Using the medium-high scenario of emissions and population growth, by 2070, around 2 billion people are expected to live in these extremely hot areas. Currently, only 30 million people live in hot places, primarily in the Sahara Desert and Gulf Coast.

Finally, climate change could irrevocably undermine humanity’s ability to recover from another cataclysm, such as nuclear war. That is, it could create significant latent risks (Table 1): Impacts that may be manageable during times of stability become dire when responding to and recovering from catastrophe. These different causes for catastrophic concern are interrelated and must be examined together.

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