bookmark_borderWorldwide Droughts

August 2022

There are droughts in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

* UN lists 23 countries that are in severe drought: Afghanistan, Angola, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Chile, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Pakistan, the United States and Zambia.

* U.S. officials declared the first-ever water shortage from the Colorado river that serves 40 million people in the West. Water levels at the largest reservoir on the Colorado River — Lake Mead — have fallen to record lows. Along its perimeter, a white “bathtub ring” of minerals outlines where the high water line once stood, underscoring the acute water challenges for a region facing a growing population and a drought that is being worsened by hotter, drier weather brought on by climate change.

* The silvery blue waters of the Great Salt Lake sprawl across the Utah desert, having covered an area nearly the size of Delaware for much of history. For years, though, the largest natural lake west of the Mississippi River has been shrinking. And a drought gripping the American West could make this year the worst yet.

* Baby salmon are dying by the thousands in one California river, and an entire run of endangered salmon could be wiped out in another. Fishermen who make their living off adult salmon, once they enter the Pacific Ocean, are sounding the alarm as blistering heat waves and extended drought in the U.S.

* Extreme drought in northern Mexico has left millions of residents without water.

* From the Atacama Desert to Patagonia, a 13-year megadrought is straining Chile’s freshwater resources to breaking point.

* As Europe’s rivers run dry in a devastating drought that scientists say could prove the worst in 500 years, their receding waters are revealing long-hidden artefacts, from Roman camps to ghost villages and second world war shipwrecks. The so-called “hunger stone” at Děčín is one of dozens in central European rivers engraved to mark their levels during historic droughts – and warn future generations of the famine and hardship likely to follow each time they became visible.

* More and more droughts: How both India and the world is getting affected and what it will lead to. The head of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Ibrahim Thiaw, has said that “Humanity is at a crossroads” when it comes to managing drought, and accelerating means of slowing it down must happen “urgently, using every tool we can.

* Pakistan is one of the top 23 countries suffering from a severe drought emergency, a statement issued by the Ministry of Climate Change said. Desertification caused by human and environmental factors has left Pakistan scarred, leading to environmental degradation, loss of soil fertility, loss of biodiversity, and reduction in land productivity, exacerbating the vulnerability of the country’s fragile local communities.

* China issues nationwide drought alert amid extreme heat. A record-breaking 262 weather stations tied or broke their highest temperature on record during the long-running heat wave, which has increased in intensity during the past week. At least 244 cities across China could experience temperatures above 104°F (40°C) on Friday and more than 400 additional cities could see temperatures above 98°F (37°C). The Poyang Lake in central China’s Jiangxi province has shrunk to a quarter of its normal size for this time of year and some 66 rivers in 34 counties in southwestern China have dried up,

* UN food agency scales up assistance for Horn of Africa as millions suffer from drought. Levels of hunger soar in Horn of Africa after back-to-back droughts, threat of famine looms, says World Food Program. Since the start of the year, 9 million more people have slipped into severe food insecurity across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, leaving 22 million people struggling to find enough food to eat, WFP’s regional office in Nairobi said in a statement. “People here have been waiting years for rain – but they cannot wait any longer for life-saving food assistance. The world needs to act now to protect the most vulnerable communities from the threat of widespread famine in the Horn of Africa,” Beasley said.

* In Texas, the heat and lack of rain have uncovered dinosaur tracks from 113 million years ago. “Due to the excessive drought conditions this past summer, the river dried up completely in most locations, allowing for more tracks to be uncovered here in the park,” the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department said in a statement.

* A drought and heat wave in southwestern China have revealed 600-year-old Buddhist statues on a rocky outcrop in the Yangtze River.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderColorado River: Catastrophic Collapse

Water wars… coming to a state near you:
“A 23-year drought has been drying up the Colorado River and the effects of climate change, both in terms of extreme heat and low precipitation, are making that more severe.”
“For the second year in a row, the federal government said Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will have to reduce their water consumption.”

90% of the U.S. lettuce is produced in Arizona using water from the Colorado River. In 2021, Arizona had to drastically reduce water consumption. In 2022, Arizona is reducing water consumption from the Colorado by another 21%.

CNBC reports, Feds call for water cutbacks ‘to avoid a catastrophic collapse’ of Colorado River.
“For the second year in a row, the federal government said Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will have to reduce their water consumption.
A 23-year drought has been drying up the Colorado River and the effects of climate change, both in terms of extreme heat and low precipitation, are making that more severe.”

“Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency. In order to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado River System and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the Basin must be reduced,” said Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary for water and science at the Department of Interio.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderEurope Drought: And Yes, All Fish Will Die

Water wars… coming to a town near you:
* Europe hydrogeneration is down 20% in France, down 30% in Italy, and down 50% in Spain. And, did you know solar panels are less efficient in high temperatures? There is more resistance in all power lines, too.
* Germany the Rhine water levels fall to new low making it non-navigable for ships
* France is relocating fish into tanks because the water is too warm. Thousands of other fish die due to lack of O2 — “Without rain, the river “will continue to empty. And yes, all fish will die”

Politico reports, Watts going down? Europe’s scorching summer parches hydropower.
“Record-breaking temperatures are starving hydropower plants and raising questions about how to adapt them for the future.”

The Guardian reports, Europe’s rivers run dry as scientists warn drought could be worst in 500 years.
“Crops, power plants, barge traffic, industry and fish populations devastated by parched waterways”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change: A Hard Rain Is Falling

by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

In a vacuum, everything falling to earth accelerates at 9.8 m/s^2 (32ft/s^2) [the downward speed increases at 9.8 m/s (32 ft/s) every second.]

Rain accelerates down to earth initially at 9.8 m/s^2, but air resistance slows the drops to a constant speed called the terminal velocity which depends on the size of the drop. “When all the parameters are considered the terminal velocity of a typical raindrop is calculated to be about 9 meters per second or 20 mph. A smaller raindrop of radius 0.15 cm has a terminal velocity of about 7 meters per second or 16 mph.” (1)

Velocity is only one factor in calculating the momentum of rain. The mass of rain also factors into the momentum.
p = mv
p = momentum
m = mass
v = velocity

“Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of precipitation. Warmer oceans increase the amount of water that evaporates into the air. When more moisture-laden air moves over land or converges into a storm system, it can produce more intense precipitation — for example, heavier rain and snowstorms.” (2)

Part of the increasing momentum is transferred to the sides and upward increasing wind turbulence, as well as updrafts.

Most of the momentum is transferred upon impact. You may notice the rain bouncing higher off the streets and sidewalks. As rain becomes more massive, it will have greater momentum when it hits the ground. Ground without groundcover will be hit harder causing more damage. The groundcover will also be hit harder causing more damage.
* Concrete and asphalt will sustain more damage.
* Solar panels and roofs will sustain more damage.
* Trees and plants will sustain more damage.
* Food crops will sustain more damage.

1. “What is the speed of falling raindrops?” Kyle Hathcox, Glenn Marsch, David Ward (2001)
2. “Climate Change Indicators: Heavy Precipitation” EPA (2021)

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change and Pathogens

In the report published in Nature entitled Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, data analyst and associate professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at the University of Hawaii Manoa, Camilo Mora, said climate hazards aggravated 58% of all known human pathogens. That is over half of infectious diseases discovered since the end of the Roman Empire.

A whopping 58% of an authoritative list of infectious diseases documented to have impacted humanity have already been shown to be aggravated by climatic hazards — a finding the researchers found “shocking,” Mora said.

Movement of people and animals caused by climate is one factor. Warming at higher latitudes allowed vectors and pathogens to survive winter is another factor. The report goes on to say, “The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions.”

This research reveals more evidence that humans will have difficulty adapting to climate change, especially those in developing countries, Mora said.

“The magnitude of the vulnerability when you think about one or two diseases — okay, sure, we can deal with that,” he said. “But when you’re talking about 58% of the diseases, and 58% of those diseases can be affected or triggered in 1,000 different ways. So that, to me, was also revealing of the fact that we’re not going to be able to adapt to climate change.”

Climate Change and Health

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderFlorida Insurance Regulators Taking an “unprecedented” and “extraordinary” Step

The St. Lucie News Tribune reports:

Florida insurance regulators are taking an “unprecedented” and “extraordinary” step to try and prevent tens of thousands of homeowners from being forced to look for new property insurance coverage if rating agency Demotech follows through on plans to downgrade many Florida carriers.

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation announced a plan Wednesday to provide companies that are downgraded with reinsurance coverage through state-run Citizens Property Insurance.

The dramatic decision to assume financial responsibility for a raft of struggling insurers underscores the dire circumstances Florida is facing as a large portion of its homeowners insurance market teeters on the brink of collapse.

Downgrading so many companies could wreak havoc in the state, causing big problems for homeowners and the real estate industry.

Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require borrowers to have a home insurance policy from a highly-rated company. Florida’s home insurance market is dominated by smaller companies that only get ratings from Demotech, giving the company significant sway in the industry.

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each offer an exception to the financial rating requirements for an insurer that is covered by a reinsurer who assumes, by endorsement, 100 percent of the insurer’s liability for any covered loss payable, but unpaid by the insurer, by reason of insolvency,” the release states.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday that it makes sense to use Citizens as a financial backstop for insurers, because if the companies are downgraded many of their policies would ultimately flow into Citizens – the state’s insurer of last resort.

“If the companies get downgraded and they have to shed policies those will end up going on Citizens anyway, so the exposure to Citizens is more to take on the policies than it will be to act as a reinsurer of last resort,” DeSantis said during a press conference in Tampa.

Reinsurance is insurance for insurance companies. By providing such coverage, Citizens would be on the hook to pay the claims if the downgraded insurers aren’t able to meet their financial obligations. Spiking reinsurance costs have contributed to the home insurance industry’s problems in Florida, which is heavily reliant on such coverage.

The additional reinsurance coverage comes on top of a $2 billion rescue fund approved by state lawmakers during a special session earlier this year. That fund provides reinsurance at no cost to Florida insurers. It was part of a package of reforms intended to stabilize the insurance industry.

Demotech had planned to release its ratings revisions on Tuesday, but said in a statement provided to USA TODAY Network – Florida that it is taking more time to update the ratings.

“As the current regulatory climate has become hostile and negative and we have and will expend a significant effort creating responses to third party letters, we will be taking additional time to review information and consider the issues affecting the companies operating in Florida,” the statement reads.

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderAir Pollution and Cognitive Decline, Dementia

In a UK study, a causal relationship has been established between air pollution and cognitive decline / dementia. The primary cause is a decline in blood flow to the brain.

Cognitive decline, dementia and air pollution

COMEAP reviewed nearly 70 studies in human populations (epidemiological studies) which looked at possible links between air pollution and a decline in mental ability and dementia in older people. They also considered studies which investigated how air pollution might affect the brain.

From this review, it can be concluded that it is likely that air pollution does contribute to these effects. The most likely way this occurs is through effects on the circulation. It is known that air pollutants, particularly small particles, can affect the heart and blood vessels, including to the brain.

POLLUTION OVERVIEW
Morgantown, Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA, New York/Newark, Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA rank in the worst pollution for the Northeastern USA.

The worst in Pennsylvania include Emsworth, Forest Hills, Freedom, Ben Avon, Edgewood, Braddock, Millvale, Carnegie, North Braddock, Sewickley, McKeesport, Bristol, Chester, Norristown, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lancaster, Kutztown, York, Allentown, Freemansburg, Swiftwater, Wilkes-Barre, Altoona, Montoursville, State College, Tioga, Kittanning, Farrel, and Erie.

WORST CITIES FOR OZONE POLLUTION
#1: Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
#2: Bakersfield, CA
#3: Visalia, CA
#4: Fresno-Madera-Hanford, CA
#5: Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
#6: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
#7: Denver-Aurora, CO
#8: Houston-The Woodlands, TX
#9: Sacramento-Roseville, CA
#10: Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT
#11: Las Vegas-Henderson, NV
#12: El Paso-Las Cruces, TX-NM
#13: San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA
#14: New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA
#15: El Centro, CA
#16: Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
#16: Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK
#18: Fort Collins, CO
#19: San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
#20: Chico, CA
#21: Reno-Carson City-Fernley, NV
#22: Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM
#23: Redding-Red Bluff, CA
#24: Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI
#25: San Antonio-New Braunfels-Pearsall, TX

WORST CITIES FOR PARTICLE POLLUTION
#1: Bakersfield, CA
#2: Fresno-Madera-Hanford, CA
#2: Visalia, CA
#4: San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA
#5: Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
#6: Medford-Grants Pass, OR
#7: Fairbanks, AK
#8: Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
#9: Chico, CA
#10: El Centro, CA
#11: Sacramento-Roseville, CA
#12: Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville, OH-KY-IN
#13: Indianapolis-Carmel-Muncie, IN
#14: Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV
#15: Bend-Prineville, OR
#16: Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI
#16: Redding-Red Bluff, CA
#18: McAllen-Edinburg, TX
#18: Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD
#18: Eugene-Springfield, OR
#21: Yakima, WA
#22: Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
#22: Houston-The Woodlands, TX
#24: St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL
#25: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
#25: Shreveport-Bossier City-Minden, LA

bookmark_borderTropical Stratospheric Ozone Loss and Rocket Debris

We might have another problem.
A whole buncha people, Elon Musk included, are launching thousands of satellites designed to fall into atmosphere at end of life (decade or less) and burn up, not to speak of rocket exhaust… except the products of that burning are all kindsa metal and other oxides whose chemical effects on the stratosphere is not at all well understood.

We are throwing all kindsa crap into the upper atmosphere, a system we do not fully understand. We are throwing $hit over our heads.
Now over the last few days I see reports of tropical ozone loss and elsewhere.
Something tells me this is not a good idea.

Oh, another thing, the reason i brought up disturbances in tropic stratosphere is that top of atmosphere is higher in the tropics
(higher temp and pressure) so satellites hit that part first when they are deorbiting at end of life into higher drag bits of the
atmosphere.

— Sidd

Observation of large and all-season ozone
losses over the tropics

“The whole-year large tropical O3 hole could cause a great global concern as it can lead to increases in ground-level ultraviolet radiation and affect 50% of the Earth’s surface area, which is home to approximately 50% of the world’s population. Moreover, the presence of the tropical and polar O3 holes is equivalent to the formation of three “temperature holes” observed in the stratosphere. These findings will have significances in understanding planetary physics, ozone depletion, climate change, and human health.”

bookmark_borderGreen Energy Storage: The Sand Battery

by Daniel Brouse

One of the main problems with solar and wind energy is storage. They are great for making electricity when the sun is out or the wind is blowing, but how can you store energy for dark windless nights in the cold of winter of the heat of summer? Neither lead acid nor lithium batteries offer the ability to store electricity on an industrial scale. For applications like the power grid, we need much better and environmentally friendly storage.

The most efficient alternative batteries are based on membrane technology. My favorite is the membrane based battery that can be 100% efficient and never losses it’s ability to hold a charge. There are quite a few other battery types that do not involve mining or exploitation of natural resources. These include underwater bladders that solar electricity pumps up when the sun is out. Then, air is let out to turn turbines when batteries are needed. Another method is buried rocks that are heated up by solar during the sunlight and geothermal energy is used for batteries.

The most practical alternative battery that is currently in use is the sand battery. The battery uses low-grade sand and is charged up with heat made from from solar or wind electricity. The sand stores the heat near 932 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Whenever there’s like this high surge of available green electricity, we want to be able to get it into the storage really quickly,” says Markku Ylönen, one of the founders of Polar Night Energy who have developed a sand battery.

Battery scientist and climate change expert Sidd Mukherjee says, “It’s a heat store… nice and simple. You can get better by using a phase change material like Glauber’s salt, but at the expense of more complexity. Sand is nice and simple. So is water.”

How a sand battery works.
How a sand battery works.

What about solar energy? Can’t we use solar for everything?

How to go net zero now. Free and easy. Save thousands. Save the planet.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderObtaining Net Zero: Can we use solar to electrify everything?

by Daniel Brouse
June 25, 2022

Q: What about solar energy? Can’t we use solar for everything?

A: Solar can provide all the energy we need for cars. Solar can provide around 50% of our overall electric needs. However, solar will not work for ships and jets… nor steel or cement. Solar could produce green hydrogen to do the job; however, it would be at the expense of providing electricity to the grid. (also green hydrogen is only a 40% efficient way to store solar power.) Some countries are using wind or nuclear to make the green hydrogen. Some countries are creating their green hydrogen in other countries (eg Germany > Australia) using solar, than importing their green hydrogen (hopefully, in green hydrogen powered ships.)

Q: Is hydrogen really “green” or is that green washing from fossil fuel companies? Essentially as I understand hydrogen is more of a form of energy storage- as the water. Also, I’m intrigued by mechanical batteries for long term terrestrial storage more than chemical batteries but exciting to see what chemistry we can come up with.

A: Green hydrogen that is made from solar or wind is green hydrogen. Natural gas (methane) that is used to make hydrogen is blue hydrogen. There is yet another method for transitioning… that is a mix of 80% natural gas (methane) and 20% hydrogen. The importance of all the above is getting from here to then. Most of Europe and the UK (and much of the USA) heat their homes with natural gas. The 80/20 mix can start to be used with the existing infrastructure. Long-term we will need to upgrade the infrastructure to go with pure hydrogen. The reason being — hydrogen is the smallest atom… it can even leak between copper or steel atoms that make a pipe. As for batteries, I’ve been involved with batteries and fuel cells for a long, long time, too. The most efficient batteries are based on membrane technology. There are quite a few other battery types that do not involve mining or exploitation of natural resources. These include underwater bladders that solar pumps up when the sun is out… air is let out to turn turbines when batteries are needed. Another method is buried rocks that are heated up by solar during the sunlight and geothermal energy is used for batteries. My favorite is the membrane based battery that can be 100% efficient and never losses it’s ability to hold a charge.

Q: Things have evolved rapidly in the solar space. 90% reduction in costs in less than a decade. Now we can truly scale this exponentially and power everything relatively cheaply and abundantly, can’t we?

A: Yes, solar and battery are coming down in price quickly. But, the problem you seem to be missing is — we can not power everything with electricity. You can not make cement with electricity. You can not make steel with electricity. A blast furnace requires blast. You can’t fly passenger or cargo jets with electricity. You can’t power a cargo ship with electricity. The storage size exceeds the vessel. You can’t heat Europe, the UK, and the USA on electricity. Neither the grid, the solar resources, nor storage capacity are currently available. We need to think beyond our electricity needs when it comes to solar. That is not our biggest threat. Are largest threats are industry (providing mass consumption fashion and goods emitting that result in greenhouse gases) and land use (eg damage of building dams for hydro, taking down trees to put up solar panels, using bio-fuels that emit more pollution than fossil fuels, etc.) The roles of residential solar and EV transportation are already going good. I’m skeptical we can get people to stop their mass consumption (eg look around). I have more optimism that we can change our land and soil usage. Stop mining 100% Stop drilling 100%. This is obtainable now.

How to go net zero now. Free and easy. Save thousands. Save the planet.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment