bookmark_border10% of Canadian Homes Uninsurable Due to Extreme Weather and the Climate Crisis

The Guardian reports The uninsurables: how storms and rising seas are making coastlines unliveable.

“In Canada, the number of uninsurable homes has reached 10%, according to industry figures. The Magdalen archipelago is losing half a metre each year to erosion, roads have fallen into the sea and the sand dunes that once offered protection from squalls are disappearing faster than they can be saved, but it is not just there. Most of Canada’s major cities are built on the frontlines of a changing climate – along rivers and coastlines or on flood plains.”

“Over the past 15 years, insurance claims from severe weather events in Canada – windstorms, flooding, wildfire and drought – have more than quadrupled. Seven of the country’s costliest disasters occurred in the last decade. Insurers now expect to disburse C$2bn (£1.3bn) in disaster-related payouts annually, with costs only expected to rise.”

“A federally run fund, meant to help communities build disaster-resilient infrastructure, is quickly running out of money years before it expires at the end of the decade. It has already received far more requests than it can pay for, and despite the federal government repeatedly topping it up, more than half of the money has been spent.”

“Without any sort of concerted effort or gameplan, that figure will only grow. We’re continuing to build in harm’s way, largely on water, because that’s where people love to be. And the modelling shows that these storm events are just going to become more frequent and more intense in the years ahead,” says Craig Stewart, vice-president of the IBC’s climate change and federal issues portfolio. “The risk is growing. And so far, our efforts at risk reduction have been terrible.”

“The private market, on its own, cannot handle the level of risk that’s escalating in the system without some sort of formal government backstop or direct participation.”

In the US, Florida has blocked insurers from withdrawing from the market for at least two months after Hurricane Ian. Officials in the US have also warned residents about the dangers of rebuilding in areas likely to suffer weather-related disasters.

In November 2021, a powerful “atmospheric river”, a plume of water-laden air, led to widespread flooding in the province of British Columbia. Highways and bridges were washed away and thousands of homes – built on an old lake bed that was a known flood plain – were submerged in turbid waters. The damage cost insurers nearly C$675m – with billions more in uninsured costs having to be borne by residents and government.

The floods also hit the town of Lytton, British Columbia, which a few months earlier had been the site of scorching temperatures before it was all but destroyed by a wildfire. In the aftermath, the uncertainty of how to rebuild – or whether to rebuild – has become a flashpoint.

“There was conflict between people who wanted to rebuild Lytton better, and those who were traumatised by the fire and they wanted to put their lives back together as quickly as possible without any change,” says Porter. “They didn’t want to be told what to do. They didn’t want outsiders coming in and telling them you must change your life in such a way.”

Governments are bracing for the mounting costs from extreme weather to upend life in cities. A recent report warned that floods and droughts could cost the global economy US$5.6tn by 2050.

More articles on Flood Insurance, Extreme Weather Events and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderThe Collapse of Nature

The World Wildlife Foundation issued a report LIVING PLANET REPORT 2022 showing a near 70% decline in wildlife.

* Monitored populations of vertebrates (mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish) have seen a devastating 69% drop on average since 1970

* Freshwater species populations have suffered an 83% fall

* The report’s Living Planet Index shows that there is no time to lose in securing a nature-positive society

* Deforestation, human exploitation, pollution, and climate change were the biggest drivers of the loss

Many scientists believe we are living through the sixth mass extinction – the largest loss of life on Earth since the time of the dinosaurs – and that it is being driven by humans.

Tanya Steele, chief executive at WWF-UK, said: “This report tells us that the worst declines are in the Latin America region, home to the world’s largest rainforest, the Amazon. Deforestation rates there are accelerating, stripping this unique ecosystem not just of trees but of the wildlife that depends on them and of the Amazon’s ability to act as one of our greatest allies in the fight against climate change.”

“Despite the science, the catastrophic projections, the impassioned speeches and promises, the burning forests, submerged countries, record temperatures and displaced millions, world leaders continue to sit back and watch our world burn in front of our eyes,” said Steele. “The climate and nature crises, their fates entwined, are not some faraway threat our grandchildren will solve with still-to-be-discovered technology.”

She added: “We need our new prime minister to show the UK is serious about helping people, nature and the economy to thrive, by ensuring every promise for our world is kept. Falling short will be neither forgotten nor forgiven.”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderHeat Waves Make Regions Uninhabitable Within Decades

The U.N. humanitarian aid agency OCHA and the International Federation of Red Cross report Extreme heat: Preparing for the heatwaves of the future (October 2022) says large parts of the earth will become uninhabitable in the near future.

“We don’t want to dramatize it, but clearly the data shows that it does lead towards a very bleak future,” said IFRC secretary-general Jagan Chapagain.

There are clear limits beyond which people exposed to extreme heat and humidity cannot survive. There are also likely to be levels of extreme heat beyond which societies may find it practically impossible to deliver effective adaptation for all. On current trajectories, heat waves could meet and exceed these physiological and social limits in the coming decades, including in regions such as the Sahel and south and southwest Asia.

Projected future death rates from extreme heat are staggeringly high — comparable in magnitude by the end of the century to all cancers or all infectious diseases — and staggeringly unequal.

If emissions of the greenhouse gases which cause climate change are not aggressively reduced, the world will face “previously unimaginable levels of extreme heat”.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderHurricane Ian: Florida Becoming Uninhabitable

October 2, 2022

How long would it take to go 100% green?
“It depends on cooperation. If we all cooperated, we could change over within 6 months. However, we don’t expect the climate deniers will cooperate. In the meantime, many countries plan to reduce fossil fuels by 2030. Some countries, such as China, are building nuclear plants. The UK will transition from natural gas to green hydrogen with most of the regulations in place by 2030.”

“The key to how fast the US transitions is in the cost to ourselves (since we don’t seem to care about the rest of the world.) This can already be seen in Florida and Louisiana where almost all of the homeowners/hazard insurance companies have pulled out. FEMA is a good place to focus our forecasts. FEMA’s flood insurance is the only government subsidized insurance available to everybody. When the government stops subsidizing extreme weather events, you will see an instant turnover to 100% green. The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is growing exponentially; therefore, we expect FEMA will be bankrupted in short order. At that time, much of US real estate will become worthless and the cost of burning fossil fuels will be deemed too costly. The people impacted by financial and life losses will litigate the fossil fuel industry out-of-business,” said climate scientist Daniel Brouse.

The Costs of Climate Change
Hurricane Ian will be one of the most costly disasters on record, both in terms of money and lives. Over 2 million people lost power. Roads and bridges were destroyed. Some inhabited islands literally got washed away. The hurricane was so powerful that it is difficult to calculate the number of deaths as the bodies can not be found.

The Insurance Journal reports:
Wind and storm-surge losses from Hurricane Ian could reach as $47 billion in Florida alone, a figure made larger by inflation and rising interest rates, the property analytics firm CoreLogic said in a new analysis.

“This is the costliest Florida storm since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992 and a record number of homes and properties were lost due to Hurricane Ian’s intense and destructive characteristics,” said Tom Larsen, associate vice president for hazard and risk management at CoreLogic.

“Hurricane Ian will forever change the real estate industry and city infrastructure,” Larsen said in a news release. “Insurers will go into bankruptcy, homeowners will be forced into delinquency and insurance will become less accessible in regions like Florida.”

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderTripping Over Tipping Points

by Daniel Brouse
September 12, 2022

Climate change tipping points are positions in an evolving situation that lead to a new and irreversible development.

Some of these tipping points have already been crossed. The methane that escaped from under melting polar ice can not be put back. Melted ice that formed in the Alps 25,000 years ago would take at least 25,000 years to recreate. Permafrost is melting in Greenland, Alaska, Russia, China, and Eastern Europe. As these frozen soils warm, the ground destabilizes, methane is released, well-preserved woolly mammoths are exposed. The Iberdrola group reports, “Melting Siberian permafrost is turning parts of the tundra into muddy landscapes, causing the local flora to disappear and the wildlife that feeds on it to starve. Furthermore, when the permafrost beneath water bodies, such as lakes, melts, the water seeps into the ground and disappears, causing droughts.” None of these changes can easily be restored. Methane is one of the most significant causes of global warming. The release of methane from ancient storage results in a feedback loop — the released methane causes further warming. In turn, the further warming releases more methane.

Climate Tipping Points

“A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system, now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated,” said lead author Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter in 2019.

“The growing threat of rapid, irreversible changes means it is no longer responsible to wait and see. The situation is urgent and we need an emergency response.”

Nine active tipping points:

* Arctic sea ice
* Greenland ice sheet
* Boreal forests
* Permafrost
* Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
* Amazon rainforest
* Warm-water corals
* West Antarctic Ice Sheet
* Parts of East Antarctica

Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

As this study concludes, we have already crossed some tipping points. Tipping points are climate change triggers that will last for 1,000’s or many 1,000’s of years beyond the ending of human emissions.

“Their analysis indicates that even global warming of 1°C, a threshold that we already have passed, puts us at risk by triggering some tipping points. This finding provides a compelling reason to limit additional warming as much as possible.”

We are currently 1.1C above — “risks increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming.”

Research, said: “The world is heading towards 2-3°C of global warming. This sets Earth on course to cross multiple dangerous tipping points that will be disastrous for people across the world. To maintain liveable conditions on Earth, protect people from rising extremes, and enable stable societies, we must do everything possible to prevent crossing tipping points.

CONCLUSION: Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

“Our assessment provides strong scientific evidence for urgent action to mitigate climate change. We show that even the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C is not safe as 1.5°C and above risks crossing multiple tipping points. Crossing these CTPs can generate positive feedbacks that increase the likelihood of crossing other CTPs. Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming; at best, if all net-zero pledges and nationally determined contributions are implemented it could reach just below 2°C. This would lower tipping point risks somewhat but would still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points.”

WARNING:
“Remember these numbers have error bars on them. So if we think a tipping point might not be exceeded at 1.5C, we might be wrong,
and have already exceeded it at 1C,” said climate scientist Sidd Mukherjess.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderTrees, Climate Change, and Wildfires

by Daniel Brouse
September 5, 2022

Pollution, droughts, and pests are killing many of our trees. Climate change is involved in all these causes. In addition, climate change feedback loops are accelerating the extinction of trees.

Feedback loops accelerate global warming. For example, global warming has resulted in tree deaths and deforestation. Trees are a natural carbon sink for carbon dioxide, as well as, provide shade, retain moisture, and aid in cooling. As trees die from the effects of global warming, climate change is accelerated resulting in more tree deaths. Scientists’ warning to humanity on tree extinctions, “This evidence suggests that a third of the world’s tree species are currently threatened with extinction, which represents a major ecological crisis. Large-scale extinction of tree species will lead to major biodiversity losses in other species groups and substantially alter the cycling of carbon, water and nutrients in the world’s ecosystems. Loss of tree diversity could lead to abrupt declines in ecosystem functions and services, and ultimately ecosystem collapse.”

Wildfires also are a climate change feedback loop. As the planet warms, wildfires increase. Wildfires destroy the carbon sink of forests, and spew massive amounts of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The result is an increase in global warming. The increase in global warming results in more wildfires resulting in desertification.

In 2020, 20% of all the forests in Australia burned. Some of these forests hadn’t seen fires in the last 35,000 years. “More than 24 million hectares (59 million acres) burned during Australia’s devastating ‘Black Summer’ bushfire season of 2019-2020, which formed part of a confirmed climate change-driven trend of worsening fire weather and larger, more intense forest fires,” reported Mongabay News.

The 2021 fire season saw a record number of acres burned in the Northwestern USA and Canada. In California a total of 8,835 fires were recorded, burning 2,568,948 acres (1,039,616 ha) across the state. Over 1.4 million acres burned in Oregon and Washington. “Three times in the past five years, over 10 million acres have burned nationwide. On average, over 2 million more acres burned each year in the 2010s than during the 1990s,” reports Spokane’s KXLY.

Research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports, “by 2070, around 2 billion people are expected to live in extremely hot areas” similar to the Sahara Desert.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderMelting of Greenland Ice Cap is Inevitable

“Major sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice cap is ‘now inevitable'”

In 1995, I was convinced climate change was happening at an exponential rate; however, Sidd said we need more data over a longer time period. (The consensus at the time was it was linear, and we had thousands of years to solve the problem.)

It took until 2004 for Sidd to collect enough data. Indeed, we proved it… using sea level rise and Greenland’s ice sheets.

A new study has been published showing that even if we stopped greenhouse gas emissions today, Greenland’s ice sheet would continue to melt raising the sea level by at least 27 centimeters.

The Guardian reported:
“It is a very conservative rock-bottom minimum,” said Prof Jason Box from the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Geus), who led the research. “Realistically, we will see this figure more than double within this century.”

“The minimum of 27cm is the sea-level rise deficit that we have accrued to date and it’s going to get paid out, no matter what we do going forward,” said Dr William Colgan, also at Geus. “Whether it’s coming in 100 years or 150 years, it’s coming. And the sea-level rise we are committed to is growing at present, because of the climate trajectory we’re on.”

Colgan said: “If [2012] becomes a normal year, then the committed loss grows to 78cm, which is staggering, and the fact that we’re already flickering into that range [of ice loss] is shocking. But the difference between 78cm and 27cm highlights the [difference] that can be made through implementing the Paris agreement. There is still a lot of room to minimise the damage.”
“There is growing support in the scientific literature for multi-metre levels of rise within the next 100 to 200 years,” said Colgan. A collapse of the colossal east Antarctic ice sheet, which would lead to a 52-metre rise in sea levels if it all melted, could be averted if rapid climate action is taken.

Prof Gail Whiteman, at the University of Exeter, who was not part of the study team, said: “The results of this new study are hard to ignore for all business leaders and politicians concerned about the future of humanity. It is bad news for the nearly 600 million people that live in coastal zones worldwide. As sea levels rise, they will be increasingly vulnerable, and it threatens approximately $1tn of global wealth.” She said political leaders must rapidly scale up funding for climate adaptation and damage.

Read the report from the journal Nature Climate Change: Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Boycott fossil fuels. Save the planet. Save our souls. (SOS)

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Rising Sea Levels

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe Cost of Climate Change: USD 178 trillion

“Time is no longer running out to act on climate change; it’s up,” reports Deloitte. Unchecked climate change could cost the global economy USD 178 trillion over the next 50 years. “The human costs would be far greater: a lack of food and water, a loss of jobs, worsening health and well-being, reduced standard of living.”

Time is no longer running out to act on climate change; it’s up. Download the report.

Time to act—accelerating to zero

With global emissions continuing to rise over the last two decades, we have squandered the chance to decarbonize at our leisure. The global economy needs to execute a rapid, coordinated, sequenced energy and industrial transition that will play out in distinct phases.

* Bold climate plays: Coordination and collaboration set the stage for decarbonization by formulating policies and frameworks for a low-carbon future.
* Accelerating to net zero: Deep investment across systems instigates structural economic adjustments. The decline of emissions-intensive industries would create growing pains for some economies.
* Turning point: Investment in structural economic adjustment is almost complete. Economies would realize the dividend of the transformation and experience net positive growth.
* Low-emission future: Interconnected, low-carbon systems underpin a clean economy that would grow at an increasingly faster rate than its carbon-intensive alternative.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe End of Days: Floods

While record breaking droughts have been recorded on 5 of the 6 continents Africa, Australia, North and South America, and Eurasia, parts of the world are also seeing recorded breaking floods.

“A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per 1.8°F (1°C) of warming—and scientists have already observed a significant increase in atmospheric moisture due to the air’s ability to hold more moisture as it warms,” reports Climate Signals.

The increased moisture in the air can create atmospheric rivers.

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture. More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding.

2022 has brought record flooding to much of the world:

* All across Appalachian Eastern Kentucky, the story of flood victims is the same: Homes that they had lived in for decades, properties that were safe for generations were wiped out by a 1,000-year flood of torrential rain. — Time

“My papaw was almost 80 years old. He lost everything in the house that he has lived in since he was two years old,” says Lakyn Bolen, 26, a resident of Knott County, where 14 inches of rain fell. “It’s nothing that we’re used to, we don’t get stuff like this. And the thing is, a lot of the people in this area don’t have flood insurance because they’re not even in a flood zone.”

* Residents in the area of Dallas, Texas are recovering from torrential rains and floodwaters that inundated entire neighborhoods and roads and prompted dozens of high-water rescues this week. More than 100 homes have been damaged after parts of the Dallas area saw more than 10 inches of rainfall on Monday. Flooding also caused sanitary sewers to overflow in several locations. — CNBC

* Officials hope to fully reopen the main highway from Los Angeles to Phoenix by early next week after a flash flood washed out part of the road through the Southern California desert. — AP

* After record-setting rainfall this week, Jackson, Mississippi, is preparing for the Pearl River to reach 36 feet by Tuesday, leading to flooded streets. — CNN

* Authorities in eastern New Mexico on Wednesday warned residents of continued flooding along the Pecos River. Storm runoff has led to historic flows, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a flood warning for the area near Lake Arthur. — AP

* SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — An Arizona woman has died after she was swept away during flash flooding four days ago at Utah’s Zion National Park, officials said Tuesday. — AP

* The Pakistan floods have been compared to The End of Days with desperation and displacement in Sindh province. The floods have killed nearly 1,000 people across Pakistan since June, while thousands have been displaced – and millions more affected. The full scale of the devastation in the province is yet to be fully understood – but the people described it as the worst disaster they’ve survived. Floods are not uncommon in Pakistan, but people here said these rains were different – more than anything that’s ever been seen. One local official called them “floods of biblical proportions”. — BBC

* Heavy rains set off flash floods, killing 182 in Afghanistan. At least 182 people have been killed and hundreds more injured during a month of heavy flooding from seasonal rains in Afghanistan, according to the United Nations and the ruling Taliban. — AP

* A tropical storm blew out of the northern Philippines on Wednesday, leaving at least three people injured and thousands displaced and prompting authorities to shut down schools and government offices in the capital and several provinces prone to flooding and landslides. — AP

* Torrential rainfall hit Paris on Tuesday evening after a recent heatwave across France, flooding metro stations in the French capital. — France 24

* The death toll from flash floods in Sudan since the start of the country’s rainy season in May has climbed to at least 89, an official said Tuesday, as the downpours continued to inundate villages across the east African nation. — AP

* Mass floods and heatwaves hit Asia: the role of global warming in extreme weather events. In recent weeks, India and Bangladesh have experienced floods that have killed close to 200 people and displaced 7 million. Beyond these numbers, these events pose serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, whether in rural areas or urban settings. — France 24

* Days of deadly floods and landslides wreak havoc in Iran. Dozens are dead and at least 45 people missing after most Iranian provinces were affected by the inundations (of rain and mudslides.) — Al Jazeera

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bookmark_borderChina Drought: Shortage of Hydropower

Al Jazeera reports, Chinese factories close as drought hits hydropower. “Factories in China’s southwest have shut down after reservoirs used to generate hydropower ran low in a worsening drought.” Unfortunately, the factory shutdowns include most of the global solar panel production, as well as Tesla electric vehicles.

Leave power for the people,” said an order from the provincial government.

Barron’s reports, “One of the suppliers with capacity in the region is the largest EV battery maker in the world — Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (300750.China), better known as CATL. That company has idled some production in Sichuan, according to reports. GM and SAIC have a joint venture that produces a lot of small electric vehicles in China.”

“A reduction in the supply of parts would affect nearly all auto makers. The industry has dealt with a lot in recent years, including Covid-19 and a semiconductor shortage. Drought is just another issue in a long line of recent problems, and it isn’t the first act of God to hit the sector. Back in March 2021, a fire at a chip plant in Japan worsened the semiconductor shortage.”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment