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bookmark_borderTrump’s War on Climate Science: Shuttering NASA’s GISS and Silencing the Truth

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by Daniel Brouse
May 24, 2025

For nearly 60 years, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has been one of the world’s leading climate research centers. Tucked atop a Columbia University building in Manhattan since 1966, it played a pivotal role in the early modeling of climate change, helped interpret Earth-observing satellite data, and was once home to an IBM supercomputer so large it took up an entire floor.

It was also the professional home of Dr. James Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 famously warned Congress that global warming had already begun—arguably the moment modern climate policy was born. Hansen’s leadership made GISS a powerhouse of climate science, building data models and forecasts that have been used by researchers and policymakers around the globe.

But in a disturbing turn, the Trump administration has ordered the closure of GISS’s Manhattan facility by May 31, abruptly ending the lease that has kept the institute operating in the heart of New York City. Over 130 staff members are now being forced into remote work with no clarity about the lab’s long-term future. The move comes amid Trump’s ongoing crusade to suppress climate science, including efforts to slash NASA’s Earth Science budget in half.

“They are trying to kill the messenger with the bad news,” said Hansen, denouncing the closure. “It’s crazy.”

A Pattern of Denial and Destruction

This closure is not an isolated decision. It’s part of a long-standing pattern of science suppression by Donald Trump, who has repeatedly dismissed climate change as a hoax:

  • In 2012, he tweeted: “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.”

  • In 2015, he declared: “I’m not a big believer in man-made climate change.”

  • In 2016, he called climate science “bullshit.”

  • During his presidency, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, gutted the EPA, and rolled back over 100 environmental protections.

  • His administration also attempted to censor scientific reports, bury climate assessments, and promote fossil fuel use as a central economic strategy.

The closure of GISS is the latest step in that agenda—a symbolic and strategic blow to the heart of American climate science.

Why GISS Matters

GISS is not just another lab—it is one of the world’s most trusted centers for climate monitoring. It has produced global temperature records used by the IPCC, world governments, and even defense agencies. The loss of its physical presence doesn’t just inconvenience scientists—it undermines credibility, collaboration, and continuity in vital climate research.

As climate change accelerates—with 2023 and 2024 ranking among the hottest years in recorded history—the need for independent, science-based institutions like GISS has never been greater.

Silencing Science Is a Threat to Society

The danger of Trump’s denialism goes far beyond budget cuts or facility closures. It erodes public trust in science, spreads disinformation, and delays action at a time when every fraction of a degree of warming matters. While wildfires burn, seas rise, and deadly floods claim lives around the world, Trump and his allies continue to deny, defund, and dismantle the very institutions alerting us to these dangers.

Trump’s strategy is clear: delegitimize the evidence so you can ignore the consequences. Shuttering GISS is just the latest way to do it—by tearing down the infrastructure of knowledge, you don’t have to confront the truth.

Conclusion: The Cost of Denial

History will remember Dr. James Hansen and GISS as pioneers who tried to warn the world. Whether history will remember our political leaders as enablers or protectors of that truth is still being written.

To shut down GISS is not just to close a building—it is to close our eyes to the unfolding crisis. And that’s not just “crazy,” as Hansen says—it’s catastrophic.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderMarket Volatility Intensifies as Bond Market Sends Clear Warning

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by Daniel Brouse
May 21, 2025

As anticipated, the stock market is experiencing extreme volatility. This is precisely why I recommended dramatically reducing exposure to equities. The emotional and financial toll of riding this rollercoaster isn’t just unsettling—it’s unsustainable over the long run. Historically, chasing equity rallies in an unstable environment is a losing strategy.

Instead, my advice has been to watch the bond market closely. It’s been the more rational barometer, and far less volatile. While stocks have been erratic, bond yields have been steadily climbing, reflecting deeper systemic issues. As we’ve discussed for months, several converging factors are driving this shift: rising tariffs, inconsistent climate and foreign policy, unsustainable levels of federal debt, and reckless fiscal policy.

If you recall our analysis from earlier this year, we projected that these pressures would eventually trigger a full-blown budget crisis. That scenario is now unfolding. We are witnessing a key political stress test—particularly for the Republican Party and its ongoing alignment with Donald Trump. The question isn’t just economic anymore; it’s political and structural.

Today’s sharp market decline appears to be a delayed response to a major red flag from the bond market. The 20-year Treasury auction had an extremely poor showing, with a historically wide spread between the market rate and the issuance rate. This kind of spread signals deep investor unease, and today, the equity markets finally took notice.
The auction resulted in a high yield of 5.047%, the highest since 2020, reflecting tepid demand and necessitating higher yields to attract buyers.

This significant spread indicates that investors required a premium to compensate for perceived risks associated with the U.S. government’s fiscal policies, including proposed tax cuts and increasing national debt. The poor auction performance contributed to a sharp decline in stock markets, with major indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing substantial losses.

The bond market’s reaction underscores the importance of monitoring Treasury yields as a barometer for investor sentiment regarding fiscal sustainability.

Bottom Line:
Keep your eye on the bond market. It’s sending signals that equities have ignored for too long. While headlines may focus on stock index swings, the real story—and the real risk—is unfolding in the bond market’s quiet but decisive movements.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderAI, Copyrights, and the Music Industry: A Glimpse into the Future of Intellectual Property

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I recently encountered a fascinating twist in the evolving relationship between artificial intelligence and intellectual property. After releasing several thousand AI-generated songs via an international distributor to platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon, and others, I was notified that one of my tracks was being held up. The reason? The system had flagged the release as containing content generated by an AI service.

Apparently, because the AI platform I used requires a paid subscription in order for users to retain copyright ownership, the distributor needed proof of my subscription. Once I provided the necessary documentation, the release was approved and is now being distributed worldwide. Problem solved—for now.

But this incident raises a number of important questions:

  • Why did it take so long for them to notice? Thousands of songs had already been accepted and released without issue. What changed?

  • How exactly did they identify the AI service? Was it metadata, audio fingerprinting, or something else entirely?

  • Why is a distribution platform enforcing the licensing terms of an AI company? That’s typically the domain of contract law and not something you’d expect a music distributor to adjudicate.

  • And most importantly: If I compose the music, write the lyrics, and even perform live instruments—regardless of whether I use AI as a tool—why don’t I automatically own the copyright?

This scenario highlights a curious inconsistency: using AI to generate music isn’t fundamentally different from using digital audio workstations like Logic Pro, Pro Tools, or other virtual tools for engineering, mastering, and production. In both cases, you’re leveraging software to aid the creative process. So why is AI being treated differently?

It’s clear we’re entering uncharted legal territory. As AI continues to become more embedded in creative workflows, questions around ownership, authorship, and licensing are going to get much more complex—and much more urgent.

The industry, creators, and lawmakers all need to catch up quickly. Until then, those of us creating at the frontier will need to navigate a maze of evolving rules, obscure policies, and surprising roadblocks.

One thing is certain: The future of intellectual property in the age of AI is going to be anything but boring.

My main point is that I can afford to pay for the software. Many artists can’t. The real issue is that AI is just the latest in a long line of technological innovations in music. And with every major leap—whether it was multi-track recording, synthesizers, or digital production—there have always been gatekeepers in the industry trying to control access and drive up costs. It’s a way to maintain monopolies and keep independent or less wealthy artists from competing.

I’ve spent my career challenging that model. I helped pioneer the digital home recording studio, and later bypassed traditional distribution entirely by launching the first record label on the web. That made it possible to create and share music globally for almost nothing. It disrupted the industry and helped thousands of independent artists find an audience without the backing of a major label. (And, it is the reason I can now afford to pay for an AI subscription.)

Now, with AI, we’re seeing the same old tactics again—an effort by the industry to reassert control, this time through licensing restrictions and copyright ambiguity. But just like before, innovation will keep moving forward, whether they like it or not.

Legal Notes

When it comes to copyrights, I composed the music and wrote the lyrics—those creative contributions are mine, and I own the associated copyrights. The involvement of AI doesn’t change that fundamental fact. If there’s any legal argument to be made against my ownership, it would most likely revolve around the concept of “work for hire.”

The “work for hire” doctrine has been at the center of numerous high-profile copyright disputes. This legal principle determines whether the creator of a work owns the copyright—or whether the rights belong to the entity that commissioned or employed the creator. For instance:

  • In Community for Creative Non-Violence v. Reid (1989), the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a sculptor hired to create a statue was not an employee, and therefore retained the copyright, because the relationship did not meet the criteria for a work-for-hire arrangement.

  • In the music industry, disputes have emerged around session musicians and producers—such as in the case of James Newton v. Beastie Boys, where the court had to assess the nature of a sampled composition and its original copyright.

  • Even tech companies have faced this issue. A notable case involved Marvel Characters, Inc. v. Kirby, where the heirs of comic book artist Jack Kirby sought to reclaim copyrights, arguing he was not a full-time employee but an independent contractor.

In each of these cases, the outcome depended on whether the creative work was truly “for hire” or independently authored.

With AI tools, the situation gets even murkier. If I’m paying for access to a tool—and using it as an instrument, much like a synthesizer or mixing board—then the creative output is mine. The tool doesn’t own the copyright, and neither should the company behind it. Unless there’s a contract that explicitly defines the output as work for hire, default copyright law should favor the creator: the person who makes the creative decisions.

As AI becomes more integrated into music production, these legal gray areas will only grow. But until the laws catch up, it’s important to challenge assumptions that undermine the rights of artists simply because they use new tools.

Trained Models
What makes the legal landscape even more complex is the issue of AI training itself. In my case, I’ve spent over a year training my own AI model—not simply prompting a commercial engine, but deeply embedding my own musical DNA into the system. This training process has included thousands of original song lyrics, compositions, stylistic influences, vocals, and live instrument recordings.

These recordings cover a broad range of instruments: multiple types of guitars, keyboards, bass, drums, percussion, trumpet, flute, melodica, and a wide array of sound effects. I’ve also incorporated my own vocal performances and unique sonic elements—things like rimshots, ambient noise textures, and improvised phrases—that reflect my personal creativity and spontaneity.

This isn’t just a mechanical or automated process; it’s a highly intentional act of authorship. The AI I use doesn’t generate music in a vacuum—it generates based on my inputs, my performances, my decisions. That raises a critical question: when the source material is wholly original and the training process itself is creative, how is that any different—legally or artistically—from a traditional production workflow using conventional tools?

If anything, this approach represents a new form of digital craftsmanship. And yet, existing copyright frameworks don’t seem fully prepared to address this kind of hybrid authorship, where the artist is both performer and programmer, both composer and coder.

When AI Attacks Itself: The Strange New World of Automated Copyright Warfare

KingArthur.com

bookmark_borderMoody’s Downgrade Ends Century-Long AAA Credit Rating for the United States

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by Daniel Brouse
May 16, 2025

The United States has just lost its last perfect credit rating, a significant downgrade that could have serious implications for financial markets and the broader economy. On Friday, Moody’s Ratings downgraded U.S. government debt, stripping the country of its long-held AAA rating. This move marks the end of more than a century of top-tier credit status with Moody’s, which had maintained its AAA rating on U.S. debt since 1917.

Moody’s was the final of the “Big Three” credit rating agencies—alongside S&P Global and Fitch—to maintain a perfect rating for U.S. debt. Its downgrade signals a deepening concern over America’s long-term fiscal outlook, including rising deficits, unsustainable debt levels, and persistent political dysfunction that threatens the government’s ability to manage its finances responsibly.

This loss of confidence could rattle global markets, increase borrowing costs for the U.S. government, and put upward pressure on interest rates across the economy—from mortgages and student loans to credit cards and business loans. In turn, it may further complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage inflation and stabilize the economy.

While the downgrade doesn’t suggest an imminent risk of default, it does reflect growing doubts about the long-term fiscal credibility of the United States—and that could have lasting consequences.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderChina Quietly Retreats from U.S. Debt Market Amid Trade War Volatility

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by Daniel Brouse
May 14, 2025

Cash flows and foreign treasury holdings in and out of the United States have grown increasingly volatile under the Trump administration’s ongoing trade war. One of the most consequential—and largely underreported—developments is China’s quiet withdrawal from the U.S. Treasury market.

Unlike an overt selloff that would signal immediate economic tension, China’s retreat is more subtle: the Chinese government has not been dumping U.S. Treasuries, but it has stopped buying them. This marks a significant policy shift with long-term implications for global capital flows and U.S. debt sustainability.

While private Chinese firms continue to purchase U.S. debt, the state’s declining participation reflects a broader recalibration of strategy. Beijing is gradually reducing its exposure to American financial instruments—particularly long-term Treasuries—as part of a diversification effort and geopolitical hedge against growing economic friction with Washington.

China, historically one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt alongside the European Union (EU), has grown increasingly wary of its overexposure to the U.S. capital markets. Similarly, several EU member states—facing economic headwinds, internal fiscal pressures, and strategic concerns—have also begun to reconsider their heavily weighted positions in U.S. debt.

This pullback could have significant consequences for the United States. Reduced demand from two of its top foreign creditors places upward pressure on U.S. interest rates and increases the Treasury’s reliance on domestic buyers and other foreign entities less inclined to absorb American debt at current yields.

Moreover, in the context of rising federal deficits and elevated government spending—partly driven by the economic fallout of trade tensions—the loss of steadfast foreign buyers could exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities. If these trends continue, they may erode investor confidence and potentially undermine the dollar’s long-standing dominance as the world’s reserve currency.

In sum, China’s silent retreat from the U.S. debt market—paired with a cooling appetite from the EU—is more than a passive policy decision. It’s a signal. As the geopolitical and economic rift between the U.S. and its key trade partners deepens, global capital is beginning to realign. For Washington, this serves as a wake-up call: trade wars may have broader, more lasting effects on financial stability than previously acknowledged.

China’s Subtle Retreat from U.S. Treasuries Tests Market Resilience Amid Upcoming Auctions

China’s role as a major purchaser of U.S. Treasury securities has been pivotal in financing the U.S. government’s debt. As of January 2025, China’s holdings stood at approximately $760.8 billion, a decrease from its peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013. This reduction reflects a strategic shift, with the Chinese government ceasing new purchases while maintaining existing holdings.

This change in China’s investment behavior comes at a critical juncture for the U.S. Treasury market. The Treasury Department has scheduled significant auctions to manage its debt obligations. In February 2025, for instance, the Treasury offered $42 billion in 10-year notes and $69 billion in 2-year notes. These auctions are essential for refinancing maturing securities and raising new funds.

The upcoming auctions will test the market’s capacity to absorb large volumes of debt without the usual level of participation from traditional foreign buyers like China. A decline in demand could lead to higher yields, increasing borrowing costs for the U.S. government. This scenario underscores the importance of monitoring foreign investment trends and their implications for domestic fiscal policy.

In summary, China’s gradual withdrawal from purchasing U.S. Treasuries introduces new dynamics into the bond market. The forthcoming Treasury auctions will serve as a barometer for investor confidence and the market’s ability to adapt to shifts in foreign investment patterns.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderTariffs on Trial: Court Case Could Rein in Executive Trade Powers and Stabilize U.S. Economy

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by Daniel Brouse
May 13, 2025

If the Trump-era tariffs are struck down by the courts, the United States could see a return to more stable and predictable economic conditions. Such a ruling would likely reduce inflationary pressures, ease supply chain disruptions, and reopen channels of global trade—fostering stronger international partnerships and lowering costs for American consumers and businesses.

At the heart of the issue is a high-stakes legal challenge currently before a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade. The case examines whether Trump exceeded his constitutional and statutory authority when he imposed sweeping new tariffs last month on imports from more than 180 countries and territories. These tariffs were part of an aggressive and unilateral expansion of executive power in the realm of trade policy.

The plaintiffs argue that the executive branch overstepped its legal boundaries, bypassing congressional oversight and established trade laws. Specifically, the case questions whether the president can unilaterally implement such broad and punitive tariffs without clear and immediate justification under existing statutory frameworks like the Trade Act of 1974 or Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

If the court rules in favor of the plaintiffs, it could set a major precedent—limiting the executive branch’s authority to impose tariffs without legislative approval. This would mark a significant shift away from the trade practices of the Trump administration, which often used tariffs as blunt-force tools to exert pressure on foreign governments and reshape global commerce.

A ruling against Trump’s tariffs would not only affect the current legal status of these trade measures but also reinforce the role of Congress in shaping economic and trade policy, restoring a more balanced separation of powers. In practical terms, this could help reestablish long-term certainty in global markets, which have been rattled by unpredictable tariff regimes in recent years.

Ultimately, the court’s decision could have far-reaching implications—not just for U.S. trade policy, but for the broader scope of presidential power in economic governance. A ruling that reins in unilateral tariff actions could pave the way for a more collaborative, rules-based approach to global trade in the post-pandemic era.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderIgnore the Noise: The Bond Market Is Sounding the Alarm

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by Daniel Brouse
May 13, 2025

A couple of months ago, I suggested that those concerned about the future of the economy should focus less on the stock market and more on the bond market. Since then, the divergence between financial market optimism and economic reality has only widened. The stock market, increasingly detached from fundamentals, now appears to be highly politicized—driven more by perception management than data.

Meanwhile, the bond market is flashing clear warning signs: long-term yields remain elevated, yield curves have struggled to normalize, and demand for U.S. debt is becoming increasingly fragile. While equities flirt with highs, the real economy is showing strain—from sluggish growth to mounting debt and weakening global demand.

Let’s take a sober look at the realistic economic outlook over the next 12 months, based on the assumption that the recently paused tariffs remain paused:

  • 8% probability of a 90% crash, similar in scope to the Great Depression-era collapse following the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. While unlikely under current tariff policy, this risk escalates significantly if trade tensions are reignited.

  • 80% probability of a 30%+ correction in equity markets. This reflects the reality that tariffs, inflation, high interest rates, and global uncertainty are weighing heavily on both business investment and consumer sentiment.

It’s important to clarify: the economic outlook assumes that the currently paused tariffs remain paused. If these tariffs are reinstated, the probability of a severe economic downturn rises significantly. Tariffs at the levels previously proposed—some exceeding 100%—would effectively function as a trade embargo, strangling critical supply chains, driving up consumer prices, and undermining both U.S. and global economic growth.

Conversely, if the Trump-era tariffs are struck down by the courts, the U.S. could experience a return to more stable economic conditions, with lower inflationary pressures and improved trade relationships.

Currently, a panel of three judges at the U.S. Court of International Trade is reviewing whether former President Trump overstepped his constitutional authority by imposing sweeping tariffs last month on goods from more than 180 countries and territories. The case centers on whether the executive branch exceeded its trade powers under existing statutes.

Should the court side with the plaintiffs, it could significantly restrict the president’s ability to unilaterally impose tariffs—a tactic Trump has routinely used to project strength on trade and reshape U.S. economic policy by executive order. The outcome of this case could have far-reaching implications for U.S. trade policy, presidential power, and the trajectory of the post-pandemic global economy.

In short, the bond market is right to remain cautious. While equities may be propped up by sentiment, headline-chasing, and artificial tailwinds, debt markets are pricing in something more sobering: structural imbalances, fiscal irresponsibility, and elevated geopolitical risk.

Overview

It’s time to stop confusing record stock market highs with real economic health. The bond market is telling a different—and far more credible—story. And that story is a warning. As of May 13, 2025, the United States’ average effective tariff rate on all imported goods is estimated at approximately 15%, a steep rise from the pre-2025 average of just 3%. This sharp increase—driven by both new and expanded tariffs—has significantly raised costs for U.S. importers and consumers alike, fueling inflationary pressures and aggravating supply chain disruptions.

Although the recent U.S.–China trade truce has provided a brief 90-day pause on some of the steepest tariffs, it offers only temporary relief. The broader tariff landscape remains far more restrictive than historical norms, distorting trade flows and undermining business certainty. In contrast to the stock market’s optimism, the bond market’s sustained high yields reflect deeper concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, inflation risks, stagflation, and the fragility of global trade relationships.

Tariff Scorecard

As of May 13, 2025, the United States enforces a multifaceted tariff regime encompassing both longstanding measures and new tariffs introduced during President Trump’s second term. These tariffs vary by country and sector, with some products subject to multiple overlapping tariffs. Below is an updated overview:

China

  • Pre-Existing Tariffs: Under the 2018–2019 trade war, tariffs of 10%–25% were imposed on over $360 billion of Chinese goods, targeting sectors like electronics, machinery, and consumer products.

  • “Fentanyl Tariff”: An additional 10% tariff was imposed on February 4, 2025, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing national security concerns related to fentanyl. This was doubled to 20% on March 4, 2025.

  • “Reciprocal Tariff”: A 125% tariff was added on April 9, 2025, bringing the total tariff rate to 145% on all Chinese imports.

  • Temporary Reduction: On May 12, 2025, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day truce, reducing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.

  • De Minimis Exemption Closure: Effective May 3, 2025, the U.S. closed the de minimis exemption for China and Hong Kong, subjecting low-value shipments to tariffs.

Canada

  • 25% Tariff on Most Canadian Goods: Implemented on March 4, 2025, targeting non-USMCA-compliant products.

  • 10% Tariff on Canadian Oil and Gas: Announced in February 2025 but currently paused indefinitely.

  • Retaliatory Measures: Canada imposed 25% tariffs on $20.8 billion of U.S. goods, including steel, aluminum, and various other products.

Mexico

  • 25% Tariff on All Mexican Goods: Effective March 4, 2025, with exemptions for USMCA-compliant products.

European Union

  • 25% Tariff on Steel and Aluminum Products: Imposed on February 10, 2025, affecting imports from the EU.

  • Proposed Tariffs on Additional Goods: The EU announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately €26 billion worth of U.S. exports, including agricultural products, alcoholic beverages, and household items.

Global Tariffs

  • 10% Universal Tariff on All Imported Goods: Implemented on April 5, 2025, this broad tariff applies to most imports, with certain exemptions.

  • 25% Tariff on Steel and Aluminum Products: Effective March 12, 2025, this tariff applies globally, with no country or product exclusions.

  • 25% Tariff on Automobiles and Auto Parts: Announced on March 26, 2025, and effective April 3, 2025, this tariff targets global imports, excluding USMCA-compliant products.

Sector-Specific Tariffs

  • Semiconductors: Tariffs increased from 25% to 50%, effective January 1, 2025.

  • Solar Cells and Materials: Tariffs on solar cells increased from 25% to 50% on September 27, 2024. Tariffs on solar wafers and polysilicon rose to 50%, effective January 1, 2025.

  • Steel and Aluminum Products: Tariffs increased from 0–7.5% to 25%, effective August 1, 2024.

  • Batteries and Components:

    • Lithium-ion EV batteries: Tariffs rose from 7.5% to 25%, effective September 27, 2024.

    • Non-lithium-ion battery parts: Tariffs increased from 7.5% to 25%, effective September 27, 2024.

    • Lithium-ion batteries for non-EVs: Tariffs will rise from 7.5% to 25%, effective January 1, 2026.

  • Critical Minerals: Tariffs of 25% were imposed on various critical minerals, including manganese, cobalt, aluminum, zinc, chromium, tungsten, and others, effective August 1, 2024.

  • Medical Products:

    • Syringes and needles: Tariffs increased from 0% to 100%, effective September 27, 2024.

    • Rubber medical and surgical gloves: Tariffs will rise from 7.5% to 50% on January 1, 2025, and to 100% on January 1, 2026.

Proposed and Investigated Tariffs

  • Digital Service Taxes (DSTs): Investigations initiated against France, Austria, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK.

  • Copper, Timber, Pharmaceuticals, Semiconductors, Processed Critical Minerals, and Trucks: Section 232 investigations initiated to assess the impact of imports on national security.

This comprehensive tariff landscape reflects the Trump administration’s focus on protecting domestic industries and addressing trade imbalances. However, it has also led to increased tensions with key trading partners and raised concerns about potential impacts on global supply chains and consumer prices.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderCurb the Enthusiasm: U.S.–China ‘Trade Deal’ Is Just a Temporary Pause in a Costly Tariff War

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by Daniel Brouse
May 12, 2025

A much-publicized “trade deal” between the United States and China was announced over the weekend, sparking an immediate rally in the futures markets. Investors initially interpreted the announcement as a sign of easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies. However, a closer look reveals the agreement is far more limited in scope than the headlines suggest.

In contrast, the bond market remains notably cautious, showing little of the exuberance seen in equities. Interest rates have stayed elevated, reflecting persistent concerns about inflation, fiscal sustainability, and geopolitical instability. Bond investors appear unconvinced that the 90-day tariff pause will yield meaningful or lasting economic relief. The continued pressure in yields signals expectations of ongoing volatility and fiscal strain—deepening the divide between short-term market sentiment and long-term economic fundamentals.

Rather than a sweeping resolution, the deal amounts to a 90-day pause on the implementation of the full 145% tariff rate previously threatened by the U.S. administration. During this temporary window, tariffs remain at historically high levels: a 30% rate on all goods, 50% on most goods, and more than 100% on electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China. While slightly less draconian than a full embargo, these rates still represent one of the largest tax burdens on American consumers and businesses in modern history.

While the temporary easing may seem like progress, these levels still represent some of the most protectionist policies in modern U.S. history, and they function as a substantial tax burden on American consumers and businesses. For context, even the lowest of these rates—30%—is far above the average U.S. import tariff of recent decades, and for many product categories, the costs are being passed directly onto end users.

Economists warn that calling this a “deal” may be misleading. It is more accurately described as a ceasefire, not a resolution. Without structural changes to tariff policy or a rollback of these rates, the economic drag from higher input costs and reduced trade efficiency will persist. Small and mid-sized businesses, in particular, are expected to bear the brunt of these taxes, while consumers face higher prices on everything from electronics to everyday household goods.

Unless further progress is made, this 90-day pause may merely delay—not avoid—the full brunt of a trade war whose costs are already being felt. Any sustainable improvement will require deeper policy shifts, not temporary reprieves wrapped in celebratory headlines.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderMisleading Claims on Gas Prices, Inflation, and the Economy: A Closer Look at the Facts

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by Daniel Brouse
May 10, 2025

“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and ‘eggs’) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF ‘TOO LATE!’ ENJOY!”
— Donald Trump, May 8, 2025

This statement makes multiple false and misleading claims.

1. “Virtually NO INFLATION” — False

  • Reality: As of early to mid-2025, the U.S. still experiences persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. While it has moderated from its 2022 peak, core inflation remains elevated, especially in services (e.g., housing, insurance).

  • Misleading: Even if energy or eggs are down in price short term, overall consumer price levels remain significantly higher than in 2019. “Virtually no inflation” misrepresents the lived experience of most Americans.

2. “Oil and Energy way down” — Misleading

  • Reality: Energy prices fluctuate, but they are still volatile and subject to geopolitical pressures (e.g., OPEC+ cuts, Middle East instability, climate-driven supply disruptions).

  • A decline in oil prices due to a slowing global economy is a negative signal, not a reason for celebration. Historically, sustained oil price drops (when not due to supply surges) often precede or coincide with economic slowdowns or recessions.

  • Gasoline prices remain relatively high compared to pre-COVID levels. Donald Trump has falsely claimed that gas prices are below two dollars per gallon in many states, which is not supported by current data. Both Trump and some White House spokespeople have confused oil futures contracts with actual retail gasoline prices. If gas prices do fall due to lower oil prices and a slowing global economy, the benefit to consumers may be minimal—especially if unemployment rises and people are driving less. Additionally, if lower gasoline prices spur increased demand, this could exacerbate climate-related inflation, particularly in sectors like insurance. In the end, the net cost to consumers may still rise, despite cheaper fuel.

3. “Almost all costs (groceries and ‘eggs’) down” — False

  • Reality: Food prices have risen substantially since 2020. Even if eggs or specific items dropped after a spike (e.g., due to avian flu), the overall grocery bill remains much higher than a few years ago.

  • The USDA and BLS data show food inflation continues to burden consumers.

4. “Tariff money pouring into the U.S.” — Misleading and Economically Illiterate

  • Reality: Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers, not foreign governments. Any money collected goes into the Treasury from American businesses, not “from China.”

  • Tariffs often lead to higher prices for consumers and reduced competitiveness for U.S. firms. There is no evidence that tariffs have “poured” beneficial money into the U.S. in a net economic sense.

5. Jerome Powell is a “fool” who is “too late” — False framing

  • Reality: Powell raised interest rates aggressively beginning in 2022, faster than in any cycle since the 1980s, specifically to combat inflation.

  • While one could debate timing or magnitude, he acted decisively. The Fed’s moves helped slow inflation, albeit with some lag.

  • Calling him “too late” while simultaneously claiming there’s “no inflation” is contradictory.

Summary:

The statement is riddled with falsehoods, contradictions, and economic misconceptions, such as:

  • Ignoring persistent inflation trends.

  • Misrepresenting the role and effect of tariffs.

  • Cherry-picking price data.

  • Criticizing Powell for being “too late” while celebrating current inflation as “virtually zero.”

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderWeak La Niña Fades Quickly, Pointing to Deeper Climate Disruptions

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
May 10, 2025

The lingering effects of this past winter’s La Niña are rapidly diminishing, with the tropical Pacific climate now settling into ENSO-neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are currently only slightly below average, and key atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds and convection patterns—still show faint La Niña characteristics. However, these atmospheric signs are weakening sharply.

This recent La Niña ranks among the shortest and weakest on record. While ENSO events (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) naturally fluctuate, the unusual brevity and mildness of this La Niña have sparked further scrutiny among climate scientists. One emerging hypothesis is that broader disruptions in global ocean circulation may be affecting traditional ENSO patterns.

In particular, mounting evidence suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—a major system of ocean currents that transports warm water from the tropics northward in the Atlantic—may be approaching or has already crossed a critical tipping point. The AMOC plays a vital role in regulating global climate, and its weakening or collapse would have far-reaching and catastrophic consequences. These could include intensified heatwaves in Europe, more frequent droughts in the Amazon, disrupted monsoons in West Africa and South Asia, rising sea levels along the U.S. East Coast, and further destabilization of polar ice sheets.

While a direct causal link between the current ENSO behavior and AMOC weakening remains uncertain, both phenomena point to the broader destabilization of Earth’s climate systems driven by human-induced global warming. Climate models have long warned that once critical thresholds are crossed, feedback loops and cascading impacts could accelerate dramatically. We may now be witnessing the early stages of such a cascade. In fact, our updated climate model indicates that changes previously expected to unfold over millennia are now occurring within mere decades—highlighting the urgent need for rapid emissions reductions and robust climate adaptation strategies.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment