by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee This paper estimates the long-run evolution of U.S. climate-related economic burdens and finds strong evidence of nonlinear acceleration. Using a reconstructed baseline in the late 19th century and an integrated 2025 estimate of approximately $1.5 trillion annually in climate-attributable economic losses, we estimate that the effective doubling time of […]
Category Archives: Global Warming
The Acceleration of U.S. Climate-Linked Economic Burden (1890–2040 Projection)
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The 2025 Cost of Climate Change in the United States
Estimating the Per-Person Economic Burden of Extreme Weather, Insurance Destabilization, Climate Inflation, and Health Impacts A reasonable all-in estimate for the 2025 economic burden of climate change on the United States is about $1.5 trillion, or roughly $4,400 per person. For a family of four, the implied annual burden is roughly $17,600. That burden extends […]
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America’s Greatest Climate Risks
Extreme Heat, Coastal Flooding, and the Cascading Threat to Economic Stability and Human Health By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract The greatest overall climate risk to the United States is not a single hazard in isolation, but the cascading interaction of extreme heat, coastal flooding, infrastructure fragility, rising property losses, and financial destabilization. In […]
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A Coupled Framework for Compression of Climate Impact Doubling Times
Climate Jerk in Socio-Ecological Systems By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Conventional climate-risk analysis often treats impacts as the downstream consequence of physical hazard intensification alone. In this framing, rising losses, displacement, mortality, infrastructure disruption, and systemic instability are interpreted primarily as a function of increasing temperature, precipitation extremes, sea-level rise, or other physical […]
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Climate Acceleration in Socio-Ecological Systems
Climate Jerk in Socio-Ecological Systems: Measurement, Governance, and Hazard Coupling in a Non-Stationary Earth System By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee This paper proposes a reframing of “climate jerk” (the third derivative of climate-impact variables) as not solely a property of physical climate dynamics, but as an emergent property of measurement systems, governance regimes, and […]
Climate Displacement and Nonlinear Acceleration: When Extreme Weather Becomes a Systemic Driver of Human Mobility
By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Climate displacement is often framed as a humanitarian consequence of storms, floods, droughts, wildfires, and sea-level rise. That framing is correct but incomplete. The deeper problem is that climate displacement is increasingly emerging from a nonlinear Earth system in which multiple climate hazards are intensifying simultaneously and interacting […]
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El Niño in a Warming World: Why Peru May Be Warning Us About More Than a Climate Cycle
By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee The recent reports of rapidly warming waters off the coast of Peru have generated concern among climatologists that another powerful El Niño event may be developing. Most coverage frames El Niño as a periodic climate oscillation that temporarily boosts global temperatures, alters weather patterns, and disrupts fisheries. While that […]
The Compression of Doubling Times Across Earth-System Indicators: Evidence for Increasing Nonlinearity in the Climate System
By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee June 18, 2026 Abstract Much of the climate literature focuses on trends, rates of change, and acceleration. While acceleration provides evidence that climate change is progressing faster over time, it does not fully capture whether the system itself is becoming increasingly nonlinear. We propose an alternative observational framework based […]
Climate Indicator Doubling Times
If doubling times are shortening across multiple indicators, that is evidence that the system is becoming increasingly nonlinear regardless of how one chooses to normalize the data. Framework For any indicator:Td=ln(2)kT_d = \frac{\ln(2)}{k}Td=kln(2) where kkk is the observed exponential growth rate. The key quantity becomes:dTddt\frac{dT_d}{dt}dtdTd If doubling times themselves are shrinking through time, the system […]
Observational Evidence for Climate Jerk: Multidisciplinary Indicators of Accelerating Climate Acceleration
by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Climate change is commonly described in terms of warming rates and, more recently, climate acceleration. However, a growing body of observational evidence suggests that many climate indicators are exhibiting not merely acceleration, but acceleration of acceleration—a phenomenon known in physics as jerk, the third derivative of change with […]
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