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bookmark_borderRising Sea Levels: 100’s of 1,000’s of Buildings in Danger of Submerging by 2050

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Real estate across millions of acres in the United States are projected to be submerged under seawater by 2050 as reported in Sinking Tax Base Land and Property at Risk from Rising Seas.

ZME science summarizes the findings as follows:
The research group Climate Central, a nonprofit that analyzes and reports on climate science, looked at sea level rise that has been projected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), tidal boundary lines, and records of more than 50 million properties in coastal areas. When they put everything together, they found that about 650,000 individual properties are most at risk of being flooded within the next three decades.

The state of Louisiana has the largest percentage of homes and other buildings at risk, with over 25,000 properties across over one million hectares expected to fall below tide level boundaries by 2050. This means that 8.7% of the state’s total land area could be filled with seawater. However, Louisiana is far from being the only one on the list.

Florida, Texas, and North Carolina are the next three states that are more at risk, accounting for 87% of the land area expected to be lost to the sea. New York, New Jersey, and Maryland were also identified by the researchers as states that are likely to have thousands of properties, from homes to office buildings, flooded in the coming years.

Don Bain, one of the authors of the study, told The Washington Post that the analysis should be a wake-up call for communities that have to adapt to sea level rise as a direct consequence of the climate crisis. “People really haven’t internalized that yet — that ‘Hey, I’m going to have something taken away from me by the sea.’” Bain said.

Scientists have repeatedly warned that the carbon built up in the atmosphere after generations of burning fossil fuels would lead to an increasing level rise. Earlier this year, NOAA found that sea levels could rise along US coastlines by about a foot between now and 2050, which is as much change in three decades as over the past century.

NOAA says, “For businesses along the coast, knowing what to expect and how to plan for the future is critical,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “These updated projections will help businesses, and the communities they support, understand risks and make smart investments in the years ahead.”

“This new data on sea rise is the latest reconfirmation that our climate crisis ⁠— as the President has said ⁠— is blinking ‘code red,’” said Gina McCarthy, National Climate Advisor. “We must redouble our efforts to cut the greenhouse gases that cause climate change while, at the same time, help our coastal communities become more resilient in the face of rising seas.”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderTripping Over Tipping Points

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by Daniel Brouse
September 12, 2022

Climate change tipping points are positions in an evolving situation that lead to a new and irreversible development.

Some of these tipping points have already been crossed. The methane that escaped from under melting polar ice can not be put back. Melted ice that formed in the Alps 25,000 years ago would take at least 25,000 years to recreate. Permafrost is melting in Greenland, Alaska, Russia, China, and Eastern Europe. As these frozen soils warm, the ground destabilizes, methane is released, well-preserved woolly mammoths are exposed. The Iberdrola group reports, “Melting Siberian permafrost is turning parts of the tundra into muddy landscapes, causing the local flora to disappear and the wildlife that feeds on it to starve. Furthermore, when the permafrost beneath water bodies, such as lakes, melts, the water seeps into the ground and disappears, causing droughts.” None of these changes can easily be restored. Methane is one of the most significant causes of global warming. The release of methane from ancient storage results in a feedback loop — the released methane causes further warming. In turn, the further warming releases more methane.

Climate Tipping Points

“A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system, now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated,” said lead author Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter in 2019.

“The growing threat of rapid, irreversible changes means it is no longer responsible to wait and see. The situation is urgent and we need an emergency response.”

Nine active tipping points:

* Arctic sea ice
* Greenland ice sheet
* Boreal forests
* Permafrost
* Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
* Amazon rainforest
* Warm-water corals
* West Antarctic Ice Sheet
* Parts of East Antarctica

Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

As this study concludes, we have already crossed some tipping points. Tipping points are climate change triggers that will last for 1,000’s or many 1,000’s of years beyond the ending of human emissions.

“Their analysis indicates that even global warming of 1°C, a threshold that we already have passed, puts us at risk by triggering some tipping points. This finding provides a compelling reason to limit additional warming as much as possible.”

We are currently 1.1C above — “risks increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming.”

Research, said: “The world is heading towards 2-3°C of global warming. This sets Earth on course to cross multiple dangerous tipping points that will be disastrous for people across the world. To maintain liveable conditions on Earth, protect people from rising extremes, and enable stable societies, we must do everything possible to prevent crossing tipping points.

CONCLUSION: Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

“Our assessment provides strong scientific evidence for urgent action to mitigate climate change. We show that even the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C is not safe as 1.5°C and above risks crossing multiple tipping points. Crossing these CTPs can generate positive feedbacks that increase the likelihood of crossing other CTPs. Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming; at best, if all net-zero pledges and nationally determined contributions are implemented it could reach just below 2°C. This would lower tipping point risks somewhat but would still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points.”

WARNING:
“Remember these numbers have error bars on them. So if we think a tipping point might not be exceeded at 1.5C, we might be wrong,
and have already exceeded it at 1C,” said climate scientist Sidd Mukherjess.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderTrees, Climate Change, and Wildfires

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by Daniel Brouse
September 5, 2022

Pollution, droughts, and pests are killing many of our trees. Climate change is involved in all these causes. In addition, climate change feedback loops are accelerating the extinction of trees.

Feedback loops accelerate global warming. For example, global warming has resulted in tree deaths and deforestation. Trees are a natural carbon sink for carbon dioxide, as well as, provide shade, retain moisture, and aid in cooling. As trees die from the effects of global warming, climate change is accelerated resulting in more tree deaths. Scientists’ warning to humanity on tree extinctions, “This evidence suggests that a third of the world’s tree species are currently threatened with extinction, which represents a major ecological crisis. Large-scale extinction of tree species will lead to major biodiversity losses in other species groups and substantially alter the cycling of carbon, water and nutrients in the world’s ecosystems. Loss of tree diversity could lead to abrupt declines in ecosystem functions and services, and ultimately ecosystem collapse.”

Wildfires also are a climate change feedback loop. As the planet warms, wildfires increase. Wildfires destroy the carbon sink of forests, and spew massive amounts of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The result is an increase in global warming. The increase in global warming results in more wildfires resulting in desertification.

In 2020, 20% of all the forests in Australia burned. Some of these forests hadn’t seen fires in the last 35,000 years. “More than 24 million hectares (59 million acres) burned during Australia’s devastating ‘Black Summer’ bushfire season of 2019-2020, which formed part of a confirmed climate change-driven trend of worsening fire weather and larger, more intense forest fires,” reported Mongabay News.

The 2021 fire season saw a record number of acres burned in the Northwestern USA and Canada. In California a total of 8,835 fires were recorded, burning 2,568,948 acres (1,039,616 ha) across the state. Over 1.4 million acres burned in Oregon and Washington. “Three times in the past five years, over 10 million acres have burned nationwide. On average, over 2 million more acres burned each year in the 2010s than during the 1990s,” reports Spokane’s KXLY.

Research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports, “by 2070, around 2 billion people are expected to live in extremely hot areas” similar to the Sahara Desert.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderMelting of Greenland Ice Cap is Inevitable

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“Major sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice cap is ‘now inevitable'”

In 1995, I was convinced climate change was happening at an exponential rate; however, Sidd said we need more data over a longer time period. (The consensus at the time was it was linear, and we had thousands of years to solve the problem.)

It took until 2004 for Sidd to collect enough data. Indeed, we proved it… using sea level rise and Greenland’s ice sheets.

A new study has been published showing that even if we stopped greenhouse gas emissions today, Greenland’s ice sheet would continue to melt raising the sea level by at least 27 centimeters.

The Guardian reported:
“It is a very conservative rock-bottom minimum,” said Prof Jason Box from the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Geus), who led the research. “Realistically, we will see this figure more than double within this century.”

“The minimum of 27cm is the sea-level rise deficit that we have accrued to date and it’s going to get paid out, no matter what we do going forward,” said Dr William Colgan, also at Geus. “Whether it’s coming in 100 years or 150 years, it’s coming. And the sea-level rise we are committed to is growing at present, because of the climate trajectory we’re on.”

Colgan said: “If [2012] becomes a normal year, then the committed loss grows to 78cm, which is staggering, and the fact that we’re already flickering into that range [of ice loss] is shocking. But the difference between 78cm and 27cm highlights the [difference] that can be made through implementing the Paris agreement. There is still a lot of room to minimise the damage.”
“There is growing support in the scientific literature for multi-metre levels of rise within the next 100 to 200 years,” said Colgan. A collapse of the colossal east Antarctic ice sheet, which would lead to a 52-metre rise in sea levels if it all melted, could be averted if rapid climate action is taken.

Prof Gail Whiteman, at the University of Exeter, who was not part of the study team, said: “The results of this new study are hard to ignore for all business leaders and politicians concerned about the future of humanity. It is bad news for the nearly 600 million people that live in coastal zones worldwide. As sea levels rise, they will be increasingly vulnerable, and it threatens approximately $1tn of global wealth.” She said political leaders must rapidly scale up funding for climate adaptation and damage.

Read the report from the journal Nature Climate Change: Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Boycott fossil fuels. Save the planet. Save our souls. (SOS)

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Rising Sea Levels

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe Cost of Climate Change: USD 178 trillion

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“Time is no longer running out to act on climate change; it’s up,” reports Deloitte. Unchecked climate change could cost the global economy USD 178 trillion over the next 50 years. “The human costs would be far greater: a lack of food and water, a loss of jobs, worsening health and well-being, reduced standard of living.”

Time is no longer running out to act on climate change; it’s up. Download the report.

Time to act—accelerating to zero

With global emissions continuing to rise over the last two decades, we have squandered the chance to decarbonize at our leisure. The global economy needs to execute a rapid, coordinated, sequenced energy and industrial transition that will play out in distinct phases.

* Bold climate plays: Coordination and collaboration set the stage for decarbonization by formulating policies and frameworks for a low-carbon future.
* Accelerating to net zero: Deep investment across systems instigates structural economic adjustments. The decline of emissions-intensive industries would create growing pains for some economies.
* Turning point: Investment in structural economic adjustment is almost complete. Economies would realize the dividend of the transformation and experience net positive growth.
* Low-emission future: Interconnected, low-carbon systems underpin a clean economy that would grow at an increasingly faster rate than its carbon-intensive alternative.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe End of Days: Floods

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While record breaking droughts have been recorded on 5 of the 6 continents Africa, Australia, North and South America, and Eurasia, parts of the world are also seeing recorded breaking floods.

“A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per 1.8°F (1°C) of warming—and scientists have already observed a significant increase in atmospheric moisture due to the air’s ability to hold more moisture as it warms,” reports Climate Signals.

The increased moisture in the air can create atmospheric rivers.

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture. More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding.

2022 has brought record flooding to much of the world:

* All across Appalachian Eastern Kentucky, the story of flood victims is the same: Homes that they had lived in for decades, properties that were safe for generations were wiped out by a 1,000-year flood of torrential rain. — Time

“My papaw was almost 80 years old. He lost everything in the house that he has lived in since he was two years old,” says Lakyn Bolen, 26, a resident of Knott County, where 14 inches of rain fell. “It’s nothing that we’re used to, we don’t get stuff like this. And the thing is, a lot of the people in this area don’t have flood insurance because they’re not even in a flood zone.”

* Residents in the area of Dallas, Texas are recovering from torrential rains and floodwaters that inundated entire neighborhoods and roads and prompted dozens of high-water rescues this week. More than 100 homes have been damaged after parts of the Dallas area saw more than 10 inches of rainfall on Monday. Flooding also caused sanitary sewers to overflow in several locations. — CNBC

* Officials hope to fully reopen the main highway from Los Angeles to Phoenix by early next week after a flash flood washed out part of the road through the Southern California desert. — AP

* After record-setting rainfall this week, Jackson, Mississippi, is preparing for the Pearl River to reach 36 feet by Tuesday, leading to flooded streets. — CNN

* Authorities in eastern New Mexico on Wednesday warned residents of continued flooding along the Pecos River. Storm runoff has led to historic flows, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a flood warning for the area near Lake Arthur. — AP

* SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — An Arizona woman has died after she was swept away during flash flooding four days ago at Utah’s Zion National Park, officials said Tuesday. — AP

* The Pakistan floods have been compared to The End of Days with desperation and displacement in Sindh province. The floods have killed nearly 1,000 people across Pakistan since June, while thousands have been displaced – and millions more affected. The full scale of the devastation in the province is yet to be fully understood – but the people described it as the worst disaster they’ve survived. Floods are not uncommon in Pakistan, but people here said these rains were different – more than anything that’s ever been seen. One local official called them “floods of biblical proportions”. — BBC

* Heavy rains set off flash floods, killing 182 in Afghanistan. At least 182 people have been killed and hundreds more injured during a month of heavy flooding from seasonal rains in Afghanistan, according to the United Nations and the ruling Taliban. — AP

* A tropical storm blew out of the northern Philippines on Wednesday, leaving at least three people injured and thousands displaced and prompting authorities to shut down schools and government offices in the capital and several provinces prone to flooding and landslides. — AP

* Torrential rainfall hit Paris on Tuesday evening after a recent heatwave across France, flooding metro stations in the French capital. — France 24

* The death toll from flash floods in Sudan since the start of the country’s rainy season in May has climbed to at least 89, an official said Tuesday, as the downpours continued to inundate villages across the east African nation. — AP

* Mass floods and heatwaves hit Asia: the role of global warming in extreme weather events. In recent weeks, India and Bangladesh have experienced floods that have killed close to 200 people and displaced 7 million. Beyond these numbers, these events pose serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, whether in rural areas or urban settings. — France 24

* Days of deadly floods and landslides wreak havoc in Iran. Dozens are dead and at least 45 people missing after most Iranian provinces were affected by the inundations (of rain and mudslides.) — Al Jazeera

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderChina Drought: Shortage of Hydropower

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Al Jazeera reports, Chinese factories close as drought hits hydropower. “Factories in China’s southwest have shut down after reservoirs used to generate hydropower ran low in a worsening drought.” Unfortunately, the factory shutdowns include most of the global solar panel production, as well as Tesla electric vehicles.

Leave power for the people,” said an order from the provincial government.

Barron’s reports, “One of the suppliers with capacity in the region is the largest EV battery maker in the world — Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (300750.China), better known as CATL. That company has idled some production in Sichuan, according to reports. GM and SAIC have a joint venture that produces a lot of small electric vehicles in China.”

“A reduction in the supply of parts would affect nearly all auto makers. The industry has dealt with a lot in recent years, including Covid-19 and a semiconductor shortage. Drought is just another issue in a long line of recent problems, and it isn’t the first act of God to hit the sector. Back in March 2021, a fire at a chip plant in Japan worsened the semiconductor shortage.”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderWorldwide Droughts

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August 2022

There are droughts in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

* UN lists 23 countries that are in severe drought: Afghanistan, Angola, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Chile, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Pakistan, the United States and Zambia.

* U.S. officials declared the first-ever water shortage from the Colorado river that serves 40 million people in the West. Water levels at the largest reservoir on the Colorado River — Lake Mead — have fallen to record lows. Along its perimeter, a white “bathtub ring” of minerals outlines where the high water line once stood, underscoring the acute water challenges for a region facing a growing population and a drought that is being worsened by hotter, drier weather brought on by climate change.

* The silvery blue waters of the Great Salt Lake sprawl across the Utah desert, having covered an area nearly the size of Delaware for much of history. For years, though, the largest natural lake west of the Mississippi River has been shrinking. And a drought gripping the American West could make this year the worst yet.

* Baby salmon are dying by the thousands in one California river, and an entire run of endangered salmon could be wiped out in another. Fishermen who make their living off adult salmon, once they enter the Pacific Ocean, are sounding the alarm as blistering heat waves and extended drought in the U.S.

* Extreme drought in northern Mexico has left millions of residents without water.

* From the Atacama Desert to Patagonia, a 13-year megadrought is straining Chile’s freshwater resources to breaking point.

* As Europe’s rivers run dry in a devastating drought that scientists say could prove the worst in 500 years, their receding waters are revealing long-hidden artefacts, from Roman camps to ghost villages and second world war shipwrecks. The so-called “hunger stone” at Děčín is one of dozens in central European rivers engraved to mark their levels during historic droughts – and warn future generations of the famine and hardship likely to follow each time they became visible.

* More and more droughts: How both India and the world is getting affected and what it will lead to. The head of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Ibrahim Thiaw, has said that “Humanity is at a crossroads” when it comes to managing drought, and accelerating means of slowing it down must happen “urgently, using every tool we can.

* Pakistan is one of the top 23 countries suffering from a severe drought emergency, a statement issued by the Ministry of Climate Change said. Desertification caused by human and environmental factors has left Pakistan scarred, leading to environmental degradation, loss of soil fertility, loss of biodiversity, and reduction in land productivity, exacerbating the vulnerability of the country’s fragile local communities.

* China issues nationwide drought alert amid extreme heat. A record-breaking 262 weather stations tied or broke their highest temperature on record during the long-running heat wave, which has increased in intensity during the past week. At least 244 cities across China could experience temperatures above 104°F (40°C) on Friday and more than 400 additional cities could see temperatures above 98°F (37°C). The Poyang Lake in central China’s Jiangxi province has shrunk to a quarter of its normal size for this time of year and some 66 rivers in 34 counties in southwestern China have dried up,

* UN food agency scales up assistance for Horn of Africa as millions suffer from drought. Levels of hunger soar in Horn of Africa after back-to-back droughts, threat of famine looms, says World Food Program. Since the start of the year, 9 million more people have slipped into severe food insecurity across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, leaving 22 million people struggling to find enough food to eat, WFP’s regional office in Nairobi said in a statement. “People here have been waiting years for rain – but they cannot wait any longer for life-saving food assistance. The world needs to act now to protect the most vulnerable communities from the threat of widespread famine in the Horn of Africa,” Beasley said.

* In Texas, the heat and lack of rain have uncovered dinosaur tracks from 113 million years ago. “Due to the excessive drought conditions this past summer, the river dried up completely in most locations, allowing for more tracks to be uncovered here in the park,” the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department said in a statement.

* A drought and heat wave in southwestern China have revealed 600-year-old Buddhist statues on a rocky outcrop in the Yangtze River.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderColorado River: Catastrophic Collapse

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Water wars… coming to a state near you:
“A 23-year drought has been drying up the Colorado River and the effects of climate change, both in terms of extreme heat and low precipitation, are making that more severe.”
“For the second year in a row, the federal government said Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will have to reduce their water consumption.”

90% of the U.S. lettuce is produced in Arizona using water from the Colorado River. In 2021, Arizona had to drastically reduce water consumption. In 2022, Arizona is reducing water consumption from the Colorado by another 21%.

CNBC reports, Feds call for water cutbacks ‘to avoid a catastrophic collapse’ of Colorado River.
“For the second year in a row, the federal government said Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will have to reduce their water consumption.
A 23-year drought has been drying up the Colorado River and the effects of climate change, both in terms of extreme heat and low precipitation, are making that more severe.”

“Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency. In order to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado River System and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the Basin must be reduced,” said Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary for water and science at the Department of Interio.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderEurope Drought: And Yes, All Fish Will Die

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Water wars… coming to a town near you:
* Europe hydrogeneration is down 20% in France, down 30% in Italy, and down 50% in Spain. And, did you know solar panels are less efficient in high temperatures? There is more resistance in all power lines, too.
* Germany the Rhine water levels fall to new low making it non-navigable for ships
* France is relocating fish into tanks because the water is too warm. Thousands of other fish die due to lack of O2 — “Without rain, the river “will continue to empty. And yes, all fish will die”

Politico reports, Watts going down? Europe’s scorching summer parches hydropower.
“Record-breaking temperatures are starving hydropower plants and raising questions about how to adapt them for the future.”

The Guardian reports, Europe’s rivers run dry as scientists warn drought could be worst in 500 years.
“Crops, power plants, barge traffic, industry and fish populations devastated by parched waterways”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment