Category: Global Warming

bookmark_borderEurope Drought: And Yes, All Fish Will Die

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Water wars… coming to a town near you:
* Europe hydrogeneration is down 20% in France, down 30% in Italy, and down 50% in Spain. And, did you know solar panels are less efficient in high temperatures? There is more resistance in all power lines, too.
* Germany the Rhine water levels fall to new low making it non-navigable for ships
* France is relocating fish into tanks because the water is too warm. Thousands of other fish die due to lack of O2 — “Without rain, the river “will continue to empty. And yes, all fish will die”

Politico reports, Watts going down? Europe’s scorching summer parches hydropower.
“Record-breaking temperatures are starving hydropower plants and raising questions about how to adapt them for the future.”

The Guardian reports, Europe’s rivers run dry as scientists warn drought could be worst in 500 years.
“Crops, power plants, barge traffic, industry and fish populations devastated by parched waterways”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change: A Hard Rain Is Falling

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

In a vacuum, everything falling to earth accelerates at 9.8 m/s^2 (32ft/s^2) [the downward speed increases at 9.8 m/s (32 ft/s) every second.]

Rain accelerates down to earth initially at 9.8 m/s^2, but air resistance slows the drops to a constant speed called the terminal velocity which depends on the size of the drop. “When all the parameters are considered the terminal velocity of a typical raindrop is calculated to be about 9 meters per second or 20 mph. A smaller raindrop of radius 0.15 cm has a terminal velocity of about 7 meters per second or 16 mph.” (1)

Velocity is only one factor in calculating the momentum of rain. The mass of rain also factors into the momentum.
p = mv
p = momentum
m = mass
v = velocity

“Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of precipitation. Warmer oceans increase the amount of water that evaporates into the air. When more moisture-laden air moves over land or converges into a storm system, it can produce more intense precipitation — for example, heavier rain and snowstorms.” (2)

Part of the increasing momentum is transferred to the sides and upward increasing wind turbulence, as well as updrafts.

Most of the momentum is transferred upon impact. You may notice the rain bouncing higher off the streets and sidewalks. As rain becomes more massive, it will have greater momentum when it hits the ground. Ground without groundcover will be hit harder causing more damage. The groundcover will also be hit harder causing more damage.
* Concrete and asphalt will sustain more damage.
* Solar panels and roofs will sustain more damage.
* Trees and plants will sustain more damage.
* Food crops will sustain more damage.

1. “What is the speed of falling raindrops?” Kyle Hathcox, Glenn Marsch, David Ward (2001)
2. “Climate Change Indicators: Heavy Precipitation” EPA (2021)

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change and Pathogens

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In the report published in Nature entitled Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, data analyst and associate professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at the University of Hawaii Manoa, Camilo Mora, said climate hazards aggravated 58% of all known human pathogens. That is over half of infectious diseases discovered since the end of the Roman Empire.

A whopping 58% of an authoritative list of infectious diseases documented to have impacted humanity have already been shown to be aggravated by climatic hazards — a finding the researchers found “shocking,” Mora said.

Movement of people and animals caused by climate is one factor. Warming at higher latitudes allowed vectors and pathogens to survive winter is another factor. The report goes on to say, “The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions.”

This research reveals more evidence that humans will have difficulty adapting to climate change, especially those in developing countries, Mora said.

“The magnitude of the vulnerability when you think about one or two diseases — okay, sure, we can deal with that,” he said. “But when you’re talking about 58% of the diseases, and 58% of those diseases can be affected or triggered in 1,000 different ways. So that, to me, was also revealing of the fact that we’re not going to be able to adapt to climate change.”

Climate Change and Health

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America released the study Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios:

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses.

The Potential for Climate Catastrophe
There are four key reasons to be concerned over the potential of a global climate catastrophe. First, there are warnings from history. Climate change (either regional or global) has played a role in the collapse or transformation of numerous previous societies and in each of the five mass extinction events in Phanerozoic Earth history (38). The current carbon pulse is occurring at an unprecedented geological speed and, by the end of the century, may surpass thresholds that triggered previous mass extinctions. The worst-case scenarios in the IPCC report project temperatures by the 22nd century that last prevailed in the Early Eocene, reversing 50 million years of cooler climates in the space of two centuries.

This is particularly alarming, as human societies are locally adapted to a specific climatic niche. The rise of large-scale, urbanized agrarian societies began with the shift to the stable climate of the Holocene ∼12,000 y ago. Since then, human population density peaked within a narrow climatic envelope with a mean annual average temperature of ∼13 °C. Even today, the most economically productive centers of human activity are concentrated in those areas. The cumulative impacts of warming may overwhelm societal adaptive capacity.
Second, climate change could directly trigger other catastrophic risks, such as international conflict, or exacerbate infectious disease spread, and spillover risk. These could be potent extreme threat multipliers.

Third, climate change could exacerbate vulnerabilities and cause multiple, indirect stresses (such as economic damage, loss of land, and water and food insecurity) that coalesce into system-wide synchronous failures. This is the path of systemic risk. Global crises tend to occur through such reinforcing “synchronous failures” that spread across countries and systems, as with the 2007–2008 global financial crisis (44). It is plausible that a sudden shift in climate could trigger systems failures that unravel societies across the globe.
The potential of systemic climate risk is marked: The most vulnerable states and communities will continue to be the hardest hit in a warming world, exacerbating inequities. Using the medium-high scenario of emissions and population growth, by 2070, around 2 billion people are expected to live in these extremely hot areas. Currently, only 30 million people live in hot places, primarily in the Sahara Desert and Gulf Coast.

Finally, climate change could irrevocably undermine humanity’s ability to recover from another cataclysm, such as nuclear war. That is, it could create significant latent risks (Table 1): Impacts that may be manageable during times of stability become dire when responding to and recovering from catastrophe. These different causes for catastrophic concern are interrelated and must be examined together.

More on Climate Change

bookmark_borderFlorida Insurance Regulators Taking an “unprecedented” and “extraordinary” Step

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The St. Lucie News Tribune reports:

Florida insurance regulators are taking an “unprecedented” and “extraordinary” step to try and prevent tens of thousands of homeowners from being forced to look for new property insurance coverage if rating agency Demotech follows through on plans to downgrade many Florida carriers.

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation announced a plan Wednesday to provide companies that are downgraded with reinsurance coverage through state-run Citizens Property Insurance.

The dramatic decision to assume financial responsibility for a raft of struggling insurers underscores the dire circumstances Florida is facing as a large portion of its homeowners insurance market teeters on the brink of collapse.

Downgrading so many companies could wreak havoc in the state, causing big problems for homeowners and the real estate industry.

Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require borrowers to have a home insurance policy from a highly-rated company. Florida’s home insurance market is dominated by smaller companies that only get ratings from Demotech, giving the company significant sway in the industry.

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each offer an exception to the financial rating requirements for an insurer that is covered by a reinsurer who assumes, by endorsement, 100 percent of the insurer’s liability for any covered loss payable, but unpaid by the insurer, by reason of insolvency,” the release states.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday that it makes sense to use Citizens as a financial backstop for insurers, because if the companies are downgraded many of their policies would ultimately flow into Citizens – the state’s insurer of last resort.

“If the companies get downgraded and they have to shed policies those will end up going on Citizens anyway, so the exposure to Citizens is more to take on the policies than it will be to act as a reinsurer of last resort,” DeSantis said during a press conference in Tampa.

Reinsurance is insurance for insurance companies. By providing such coverage, Citizens would be on the hook to pay the claims if the downgraded insurers aren’t able to meet their financial obligations. Spiking reinsurance costs have contributed to the home insurance industry’s problems in Florida, which is heavily reliant on such coverage.

The additional reinsurance coverage comes on top of a $2 billion rescue fund approved by state lawmakers during a special session earlier this year. That fund provides reinsurance at no cost to Florida insurers. It was part of a package of reforms intended to stabilize the insurance industry.

Demotech had planned to release its ratings revisions on Tuesday, but said in a statement provided to USA TODAY Network – Florida that it is taking more time to update the ratings.

“As the current regulatory climate has become hostile and negative and we have and will expend a significant effort creating responses to third party letters, we will be taking additional time to review information and consider the issues affecting the companies operating in Florida,” the statement reads.

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderTropical Stratospheric Ozone Loss and Rocket Debris

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We might have another problem.
A whole buncha people, Elon Musk included, are launching thousands of satellites designed to fall into atmosphere at end of life (decade or less) and burn up, not to speak of rocket exhaust… except the products of that burning are all kindsa metal and other oxides whose chemical effects on the stratosphere is not at all well understood.

We are throwing all kindsa crap into the upper atmosphere, a system we do not fully understand. We are throwing $hit over our heads.
Now over the last few days I see reports of tropical ozone loss and elsewhere.
Something tells me this is not a good idea.

Oh, another thing, the reason i brought up disturbances in tropic stratosphere is that top of atmosphere is higher in the tropics
(higher temp and pressure) so satellites hit that part first when they are deorbiting at end of life into higher drag bits of the
atmosphere.

— Sidd

Observation of large and all-season ozone
losses over the tropics

“The whole-year large tropical O3 hole could cause a great global concern as it can lead to increases in ground-level ultraviolet radiation and affect 50% of the Earth’s surface area, which is home to approximately 50% of the world’s population. Moreover, the presence of the tropical and polar O3 holes is equivalent to the formation of three “temperature holes” observed in the stratosphere. These findings will have significances in understanding planetary physics, ozone depletion, climate change, and human health.”

bookmark_borderGreen Energy Storage: The Sand Battery

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by Daniel Brouse

One of the main problems with solar and wind energy is storage. They are great for making electricity when the sun is out or the wind is blowing, but how can you store energy for dark windless nights in the cold of winter of the heat of summer? Neither lead acid nor lithium batteries offer the ability to store electricity on an industrial scale. For applications like the power grid, we need much better and environmentally friendly storage.

The most efficient alternative batteries are based on membrane technology. My favorite is the membrane based battery that can be 100% efficient and never losses it’s ability to hold a charge. There are quite a few other battery types that do not involve mining or exploitation of natural resources. These include underwater bladders that solar electricity pumps up when the sun is out. Then, air is let out to turn turbines when batteries are needed. Another method is buried rocks that are heated up by solar during the sunlight and geothermal energy is used for batteries.

The most practical alternative battery that is currently in use is the sand battery. The battery uses low-grade sand and is charged up with heat made from from solar or wind electricity. The sand stores the heat near 932 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Whenever there’s like this high surge of available green electricity, we want to be able to get it into the storage really quickly,” says Markku Ylönen, one of the founders of Polar Night Energy who have developed a sand battery.

Battery scientist and climate change expert Sidd Mukherjee says, “It’s a heat store… nice and simple. You can get better by using a phase change material like Glauber’s salt, but at the expense of more complexity. Sand is nice and simple. So is water.”

How a sand battery works.
How a sand battery works.

What about solar energy? Can’t we use solar for everything?

How to go net zero now. Free and easy. Save thousands. Save the planet.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderObtaining Net Zero: Can we use solar to electrify everything?

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by Daniel Brouse
June 25, 2022

Q: What about solar energy? Can’t we use solar for everything?

A: Solar can provide all the energy we need for cars. Solar can provide around 50% of our overall electric needs. However, solar will not work for ships and jets… nor steel or cement. Solar could produce green hydrogen to do the job; however, it would be at the expense of providing electricity to the grid. (also green hydrogen is only a 40% efficient way to store solar power.) Some countries are using wind or nuclear to make the green hydrogen. Some countries are creating their green hydrogen in other countries (eg Germany > Australia) using solar, than importing their green hydrogen (hopefully, in green hydrogen powered ships.)

Q: Is hydrogen really “green” or is that green washing from fossil fuel companies? Essentially as I understand hydrogen is more of a form of energy storage- as the water. Also, I’m intrigued by mechanical batteries for long term terrestrial storage more than chemical batteries but exciting to see what chemistry we can come up with.

A: Green hydrogen that is made from solar or wind is green hydrogen. Natural gas (methane) that is used to make hydrogen is blue hydrogen. There is yet another method for transitioning… that is a mix of 80% natural gas (methane) and 20% hydrogen. The importance of all the above is getting from here to then. Most of Europe and the UK (and much of the USA) heat their homes with natural gas. The 80/20 mix can start to be used with the existing infrastructure. Long-term we will need to upgrade the infrastructure to go with pure hydrogen. The reason being — hydrogen is the smallest atom… it can even leak between copper or steel atoms that make a pipe. As for batteries, I’ve been involved with batteries and fuel cells for a long, long time, too. The most efficient batteries are based on membrane technology. There are quite a few other battery types that do not involve mining or exploitation of natural resources. These include underwater bladders that solar pumps up when the sun is out… air is let out to turn turbines when batteries are needed. Another method is buried rocks that are heated up by solar during the sunlight and geothermal energy is used for batteries. My favorite is the membrane based battery that can be 100% efficient and never losses it’s ability to hold a charge.

Q: Things have evolved rapidly in the solar space. 90% reduction in costs in less than a decade. Now we can truly scale this exponentially and power everything relatively cheaply and abundantly, can’t we?

A: Yes, solar and battery are coming down in price quickly. But, the problem you seem to be missing is — we can not power everything with electricity. You can not make cement with electricity. You can not make steel with electricity. A blast furnace requires blast. You can’t fly passenger or cargo jets with electricity. You can’t power a cargo ship with electricity. The storage size exceeds the vessel. You can’t heat Europe, the UK, and the USA on electricity. Neither the grid, the solar resources, nor storage capacity are currently available. We need to think beyond our electricity needs when it comes to solar. That is not our biggest threat. Are largest threats are industry (providing mass consumption fashion and goods emitting that result in greenhouse gases) and land use (eg damage of building dams for hydro, taking down trees to put up solar panels, using bio-fuels that emit more pollution than fossil fuels, etc.) The roles of residential solar and EV transportation are already going good. I’m skeptical we can get people to stop their mass consumption (eg look around). I have more optimism that we can change our land and soil usage. Stop mining 100% Stop drilling 100%. This is obtainable now.

How to go net zero now. Free and easy. Save thousands. Save the planet.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_border2022 Climate Refugees in the USA

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Climate change will eventually cause most American’s real estate to become worthless and uninhabitable.

“Currently, we have crossed the tipping point when human induced climate change triggers a chain reaction of feedback loops. The Earth will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (average global surface temperature over the surface of the earth for ten years) by the 2040’s and a societal collapse will ensue. For the most part, the Earth will be uninhabitable for humans by 2070 UNLESS immediate action is taken.” — Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee (climate scientists)

In an article entitled “A safer haven? How the Midwest can be a refuge amid climate change—if we prepare” the Detroit Business Journal reports:

In the early 21st century, global climate change is spawning a new kind of migrant to the Upper Midwest: “Climigrants” seeking refuge from the forest fires of Western states, flooding along the saltwater coasts and ever-rising temperatures causing drought in different corners of the continent.

The reason for their arrival here is as old as time: Humans reacting to a threatening change in the environment around them and seeking a more habitable place to live.

That’s because climate forecasts are grim. A new report from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration warns that the U.S. coastline will see up to a foot of sea level rise by 2050 due to climate change.

Many climigrants to the Great Lakes region would most likely come from eastern and southern coastal areas, from the drought-stricken Southwest and West, and from wildfire-vulnerable parts of California and the Pacific Northwest.

Some will leave ahead of disaster with enough resources to resettle comfortably.

Other climigrants may be devastated financially when their homes or businesses are destroyed and they lack flood or other insurance, raising social justice questions for the communities they might move to.

More on Climate Change Refugees

More on Climate Change

bookmark_borderHow to Go Net-zero and Beyond

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee
June 22, 2022

Reaching “net zero” is easy, cheap, and saves you thousands of dollars, not to mention, you can help save the planet. Here are some things I’ve done to reach net zero without sacrificing my standard-of-living. In fact, I’ve gone beyond net zero in an attempt to eliminate all my pollution. The easiest way to get started is to conserve energy. Don’t use what you don’t need. Turn things off. Unplug things. Buy low energy use products.

1) Electricity and heat are the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.
* choose an electric company that uses nuclear, solar, and/or wind generation
* insulate your house (Be careful not to over insulate. Indoor pollution is as large a health concern as outdoor pollution. An air-tight house needs an air exchange system with a rigorous filter maintenance program.)
* zone heat. In the winter, keep your main temperature at 50 degrees Fahrenheit and only keep the room you are occupying at a comfortable level (68 degrees). Wear warm clothes.
* an air to air heat exchanger and humidity exchanger (Note that humidity is as important as temperature.)
* plant shade trees and eliminate your need for central air
* plant windscreens, such as, evergreens

2) Food and land use is the second largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
* eat less meat
* reduce transportation of food by buying local
* grow your own garden and windowsill gardens
* plant trees, and more importantly, maintain old growth
* reduce impervious surfaces

3) Transportation is the third largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
* buy an EV or high MPG manual transmission (I get 50 MPG in a 4-wheel drive SUV with a 6 speed.)
* make fewer trips, take public transportation, avoid air travel

4) Invest in green technologies. Here are a few suggestions:
RYCEY — Rolls Royce / mini-nuclear plants
HDRO — Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF / green hydrogen
BE — Bloom Energy Corp / fuel cells, green hydrogen
BLDP — Ballard Power Systems Inc / proton exchange membrane fuel cell, green hydrogen
TOSYY — Toshiba Corp / mini-nuclear plants
BP — British energy / green hydrogen, solar, wind
BAESY — BAE Systems / mini-nuclear development
SIEGY — Siemens / wind, green hydrogen

Thank you. My life depends on it.

A song about The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment