Category: Environment

Environment

bookmark_borderGlobal Warming Exponential Damage

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The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that global warming is spiraling out of control. “The world, in many cases, is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate,” the IPCC said.

FAQ 1: Are risks of climate change mostly due to changes in extremes, changes in average climate, or both?

People and ecosystems across the world experience climate in many different ways, but weather and climate extremes strongly influence losses and disruptions. Average climate conditions are important. They provide a starting point for understanding what grows where and for informing decisions about tourist destinations, other business opportunities, and crops to plant. But the impacts of a change in average conditions often occur as a result of changes in the frequency, intensity, or duration of extreme weather and climate events. It is the extremes that place excessive and often unexpected demands on systems poorly equipped to deal with those extremes. For example, wet conditions lead to flooding when storm drains and other infrastructure for handling excess water are overwhelmed. Buildings fail when wind speeds exceed design standards. For many kinds of disruption, from crop failure caused by drought to sickness and death from heat waves, the main risks are in the extremes, with changes in average conditions representing a climate with altered timing, intensity, and types of extremes.

FAQ 2: How much can we say about what society will be like in the future, in order to plan for climate change impacts?

Overall characteristics of societies and economies, such as population size, economic activity, and land use, are highly dynamic. On the scale of just one or two decades, and sometimes in less time than that, technological revolutions, political movements, or singular events can shape the course of history in unpredictable ways. To understand potential impacts of climate change for societies and ecosystems, scientists use scenarios to explore implications of a range of possible futures. Scenarios are not predictions of what will happen, but they can be useful tools for researching a wide range of “what if” questions about what the world might be like in the future. They can be used to study future emissions of greenhouse gases and climate change. They can also be used to explore the ways climate-change impacts depend on changes in society, such as economic or population growth or
progress in controlling diseases. Scenarios of possible decisions and policies can be used to explore the solution space for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for a changing climate. Scenario analysis creates a foundation for understanding risks of climate change for people, ecosystems, and economies across a range of possible futures. It provides important tools for smart decision-making when both uncertainties and consequences are large.

FAQ 3: Why is climate change a particularly difficult challenge for managing risk?

Risk management is easier for nations, companies, and even individuals when the likelihood and consequences of possible events are readily understood. Risk management becomes much more challenging when the stakes are higher or when uncertainty is greater. As the WGII AR5 demonstrates, we know a great deal about the impacts of climate change that have already occurred, and we understand a great deal about expected impacts in the future. But many uncertainties remain, and will persist. In particular, future greenhouse gas emissions depend on societal choices, policies, and technology advancements not yet made, and climate-change impacts depend on both the amount of climate change that occurs and the effectiveness of development in reducing exposure and vulnerability. The real challenge of dealing effectively with climate change is recognizing the value of wise and timely decisions in a setting where complete knowledge is impossible. This is the essence of risk management.

bookmark_borderWashington Mudslide

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You would think with all the mud slinging in Washington DC that would be the Washington with the mudslide. No, the mudslide that killed over a dozen people and left over 100 missing was in Oso, Washington. Oso is a small village 55 miles northeast of Seattle (or, perhaps we should say *was*.) The village was “obliterated” after weeks of heavy rain.

This sort of extreme weather event is expected to become more normal due to the effects of global warming.

bookmark_border4.4 Earthquake Shakes California

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An earthquake registering 4.4 Magnitude shook Southern California on St. Patrick’s Day.

Time:
Location: 34.135°N 118.486°W (9km NNW of Westwood, California)
Depth: 9.9km

Nearby Cities

  1. 9km (6mi) NNW of Westwood, California
  2. 10km (6mi) NW of Beverly Hills, California
  3. 12km (7mi) W of Universal City, California
  4. 12km (7mi) N of Santa Monica, California
  5. 562km (349mi) SSE of Sacramento, California
4.4 California Earthquake
4.4 California Earthquake

The LA Times reported:
Robert Graves, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, told reporters that Monday’s earthquake was the most significant shake in this Southern California area since the magnitude 5.5 earthquake in Chino Hills in 2008.

The region where the fault hit has not been seismically active recently, Graves said.

“The location is somewhat surprising. It’s within the Santa Monica Mountains. We have not seen seismicity in it in recent times,” said Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson.

L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti confirmed the city had no reports of damage.

“Today’s earthquake is a reminder that every L.A. family must be prepared with food, water and other essentials, as well as a plan,” the mayor said in a statement.

bookmark_borderNews from the Ice Wars

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The Membrane Domain has been conducting Human Induced Climate Change Experiments since 1999. One of the first scientist to hypothesize that global warming was exponential (as opposed to the linear models) requested fellow scientists to conduct studies.

One Membrane Domain scientists began a study on the decline of the ice mass. The analysis is on-going; however, recent data leads to the conclusion that the process is exponential:

The two largest ice sheets on earth, Greenland and Antarctica, are losing mass faster and faster. The figure below is from Velicogna and Wahr, “Time-variable gravity observations of ice sheet mass balance: Precision and limitations of the GRACE satellite data” GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 40, 3055-3063, doi:10.1002/grl.50527, 2013

Mass loss for Greenland and Antarctica from 2003-2013

For reference, 360 GTonne of mass loss results in 1 mm sea level rise. Greenland lost more than that in 2012 alone.

Causes of Mass Loss

I. Marine terminated glaciers flow to the ocean and calve off icebergs. The figure below is from Rignot and Mouginot,”Ice flow in Greenland for the International Polar Year 2008-2009,” GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L11501, doi:10.1029/2012GL051634, 2012

Read More on the Decline of the Ice Mass

bookmark_borderIf the Ice were Gone

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The Membrane Domain has been conducting Human Induced Climate Change Experiments since 1999. One of the first scientist to hypothesize that global warming was exponential (as opposed to the linear models) requested fellow scientists to conduct studies.

Another of the Membrane Domain scientists began a study on the ice mass of Greenland. The analysis is on-going; however, recent data leads to the conclusion that the process is exponential:

A new map of Greenland has been made.

For ice surface views, go here. For dual ice surface and bedrock views, go here. The images below are links to larger versions. Click on the image to view the larger version.

Some bedrock views follow. No isostatic rebound included. (When the ice melts, the earth beneath will rise as she is unburdened. This effect is not included in the depictions here.)

45 degree projection looking toward the four cardinal points:

View of Greenland

 

More of “If the Ice were Gone”

More on Global Warming

bookmark_borderExtreme Weather Events and the Meandering Jet Stream

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The extreme weather events effecting the USA, England and Australia by be a result of a change in the Jetstream. The BBC reports:

New research suggests that the main system that helps determine the weather over Northern Europe and North America may be changing.

The study shows that the so-called jet stream has increasingly taken a longer, meandering path.

This has resulted in weather remaining the same for more prolonged periods.

The work was presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Chicago.

The observation could be as a result of the recent warming of the Arctic. Temperatures there have been rising two to three times faster than the rest of the globe.

According to Prof Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Jersey: “This does seem to suggest that weather patterns are changing and people are noticing that the weather in their area is not what it used to be.”

The meandering jet stream has accounted for the recent stormy weather over the UK and the bitter winter weather in the US Mid-West remaining longer than it otherwise would have.

“We can expect more of the same and we can expect it to happen more frequently,” says Prof Francis

bookmark_borderExtreme Weather Hits U.S., England and Australia

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The United States, England and Australia are all experiencing severe and extreme weather events. In the United States, the East and Southeast have been hit with all types of winter storms. On the West Coast, the drought has reached critical stages of water conservation, as well as, causing wildfires. England is getting hit with the worst precipitation and flooding in the last 250 years. Australia is getting record temperature heat waves while other parts are underwater from deluges.

“Fire crews spend the day battling fires in South Australia and Victoria as the southern states endure a weekend of extreme weather conditions.” “The weather records keep tumbling in Adelaide – this time due to heavy rainfall. “– Australian Broadcasting Corporation

“Thousands of sandbags are being piled up to protect homes and businesses as more heavy rain and gale-force winds sweep across southern Britain.” — British Broadcasting Corporation

“Global Warming — We are not saying that the Earth’s temperature is just going to rise. In general, as energy is added to a system, the fluctuations in the system increase. So, we expect more storms, more droughts, more wildfires, more floods, more fluctuations of all kinds. What we are saying is that weather conditions will become more volatile due to the impact of humans.” — S. Mukherjee & D. Brouse (2004)

More On Global Warming

bookmark_border4.1 Earthquake Hits South Carolina

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Event Time
2014-02-15 03:23:38 UTC
2014-02-14 22:23:38 UTC-05:00 at epicenter
2014-02-14 22:23:38 UTC-05:00 system time

Location — 33.812°N 82.063°W depth=4.9km (3.0mi)

Nearby Cities
12km (7mi) WNW of Edgefield, South Carolina
31km (19mi) NNE of Evans, Georgia
32km (20mi) N of Martinez, Georgia
35km (22mi) NNW of North Augusta, South Carolina
97km (60mi) WSW of Columbia, South Carolina

Earthquakes in the Inland Carolinas Region

Since at least 1776, people living inland in North and South Carolina, and in adjacent parts of Georgia and Tennessee, have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones. The largest earthquake in the area (magnitude 5.1) occurred in 1916. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike the inland Carolinas every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt about once each year or two.

Earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S., although less frequent than in the western U.S., are typically felt over a much broader region. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 100 km (60 mi) from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage as far away as 40 km (25 mi).

Faults

Earthquakes everywhere occur on faults within bedrock, usually miles deep. Most bedrock beneath the inland Carolinas was assembled as continents collided to form a supercontinent about 500-300 million years ago, raising the Appalachian Mountains. Most of the rest of the bedrock formed when the supercontinent rifted apart about 200 million years ago to form what are now the northeastern U.S., the Atlantic Ocean, and Europe.

At well-studied plate boundaries like the San Andreas fault system in California, often scientists can determine the name of the specific fault that is responsible for an earthquake. In contrast, east of the Rocky Mountains this is rarely the case. The inland Carolinas region is far from the nearest plate boundaries, which are in the center of the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. The region is laced with known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undetected. Even the known faults are poorly located at earthquake depths. Accordingly, few, if any, earthquakes in the inland Carolinas can be linked to named faults. It is difficult to determine if a known fault is still active and could slip and cause an earthquake. As in most other areas east of the Rockies, the best guide to earthquake hazards in the seismic zone is the earthquakes themselves.

bookmark_borderJava Eruption

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JAVA — “Based on verified data, over 76,000 people have been evacuated from five cities around the volcano … and about 200,000 people were affected,” National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Nugroho said.

The ash has interrupted air travel in the entire region. Fist-size rocks spewed down on rooftops. The largest problem is supplying masks so residents can breathe.

bookmark_borderWinter Storm Battering Mid-Atlantic and New England

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This visible image of the winter storm over the U.S. south and East Coast was taken by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on Feb. 13 at 1455 UTC/9:45 a.m. EST. Snow covered ground can be seen over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project
This visible image of the winter storm over the U.S. south and East Coast was taken by NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite on Feb. 13 at 1455 UTC/9:45 a.m. EST. Snow covered ground can be seen over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

NASA — The monster winter storm that brought icing to the U.S. southeast moved northward along the Eastern Seaboard and brought snow, sleet and rain from the Mid-Atlantic to New England on February 13. A new image from NOAA’s GOES satellite showed clouds associated with the massive winter storm stretch from the U.S. southeast to the northeast.

Data from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite taken on Feb. 13 at 1455 UTC/9:45 a.m. EST were made into an image by NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The clouds and fallen snow data from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites.The image showed that the clouds associated with the storm were blanketing much of the U.S. East Coast.

At 3:11 a.m. EST, a surface map issued by the National Weather Service or NWS showed the storm’s low pressure area was centered over eastern North Carolina. Since then, the low has continued to track north along the eastern seaboard. By 11 a.m. EST, precipitation from the storm was falling from South Carolina to Maine, according to National Weather Service radar.

By 11 a.m. EST, the Washington, D.C. region snow and sleet totals ranged from 3″ in far eastern Maryland to over 18″ in the northern and western suburbs in Maryland and Virginia. NWS reported that snow, sleet and rain were still falling and more snow is expected as the back side of the low moves into the region.

The New York City region remained under an NWS Winter Storm Warning until 6 a.m. on Friday, February 14 and the National Weather Service expects minor coastal impacts Thursday into Friday afternoon.

New England was also being battered by the storm. At 10:56 a.m. EST, Barnstable, Mass. on Cape Cod was experiencing rain and winds gusting to 28 mph. An NWS wind advisory is in effect for Cape Cod until 7 p.m. EST.

Further north, Portland, Maine was experiencing heavy snow with winds from the northeast at 6 mph. The National Weather Service in Gray, Maine noted “Significant snowfall is likely for much of western Maine and New Hampshire as this storm passes by. There will be a mix or changeover to sleet and freezing rain over southern and coastal sections tonight…before all areas end as a period of snow Friday (Feb. 14) morning.”

On February 13 at 10 a.m. EST, NOAA’s National Weather Service noted “An abundance of Atlantic moisture getting wrapped into the storm will continue to fuel widespread precipitation…which should lift through the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast Thursday into Friday. A wide swath of heavy snow accumulations are expected with this storm…but air [moving] off the warmer ocean water should change snow over to rain along the coastal areas. Also…a narrow axis of sleet and freezing rain will be possible within the transition zone…which is expected to set up near the I-95 corridor.” For updates on local forecasts, watches and warnings, visit NOAA’s www.weather.gov webpage.

GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth’s surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric “triggers” for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes.

For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA’s WPC website: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/