Tag: climate change

bookmark_borderHomeowners Insurance and Extreme Weather Events

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Homeonwers insurance is becoming more expensive or even unavailable due to the increase frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by climate change.

NOLA newspapers reports:
Louisiana’s homeowners insurance market straining under weight of 600,000 claims
Two active Atlantic hurricane seasons in a row have made some insurers insolvent.

It’s the latest sign of a deepening crisis taking shape once again in Louisiana, where the legacy of Hurricane Katrina and other storms still looms large. As big national insurers pulled out of coastal areas in the southeast, homeowners increasingly relied on less-regulated regional insurance providers to make them whole in case of catastrophe. Now, even some of those companies — once willing to make a risky bet — are leaving.

In Calcasieu Parish, nearly three out of every four occupied homes filed an insurance claim after Hurricane Laura, according to a Times-Picayune analysis of state and census data. One in four filed claims again less than two months later after Delta made landfall about 10 miles west of where Laura came ashore.

Failures not ‘anomalies’
The flurry of storms was too much for some insurance companies to bear. The Department of Insurance has already seized control of three firms because they could not afford to pay claims.

“I wish I could say I thought they were anomalies, but I don’t,” said Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon. He said a fourth insurer that’s in dire financial straits will likely be placed under the care of the Louisiana Insurance Guaranty Association.

“I would say our property insurance market is in crisis,” said Jeff Albright, CEO of the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of Louisiana. “The sad part of it is we’re reliant on these small, thinly capitalized companies instead of having large national carriers that have lots of assets and can weather the big storms.”

Donelon said five companies have withdrawn entirely from the state and another five or six have stopped writing policies. As a result, Donelon said he expects the number of policies under Louisiana Citizens to double this year as the state launches headlong into another hurricane season.

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bookmark_borderUN Climate Report: It’s Now or Never

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A new flagship UN report on climate change indicating that harmful carbon emissions from 2010-2019 have never been higher in human history, is proof that the world is on a “fast track” to disaster, António Guterres has warned, with scientists arguing that it’s ‘now or never’ to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

Reacting to the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN Secretary-General insisted that unless governments everywhere reassess their energy policies, the world will be uninhabitable.

His comments reflected the IPCC’s insistence that all countries must reduce their fossil fuel use substantially, extend access to electricity, improve energy efficiency and increase the use of alternative fuels, such as hydrogen.

Unless action is taken soon, some major cities will be under water, Mr. Guterres said in a video message, which also forecast “unprecedented heatwaves, terrifying storms, widespread water shortages and the extinction of a million species of plants and animals”.
Horror story

The UN chief added: “This is not fiction or exaggeration. It is what science tells us will result from our current energy policies. We are on a pathway to global warming of more than double the 1.5-degree (Celsius, or 2.7-degrees Fahreinheit) limit” that was agreed in Paris in 2015.

Providing the scientific proof to back up that damning assessment, the IPCC report – written by hundreds of leading scientists and agreed by 195 countries – noted that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity, have increased since 2010 “across all major sectors globally”.

In an op-ed article penned for the Washington Post, Mr. Guterres described the latest IPCC report as “a litany of broken climate promises”, which revealed a “yawning gap between climate pledges, and reality.”

He wrote that high-emitting governments and corporations, were not just turning a blind eye, “they are adding fuel to the flames by continuing to invest in climate-choking industries. Scientists warn that we are already perilously close to tipping points that could lead to cascading and irreversible climate effects.”

IPCC Climate Change Mitigation 2022

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_border99% of Population Breathes Air Pollution

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7 Million people die from air pollution related illness every year.

“After surviving a pandemic, it is unacceptable to still have 7 million preventable deaths and countless preventable lost years of good health due to air pollution,” said Dr. Maria Neira, head of WHO’s department of environment, climate change and health. “Yet too many investments are still being sunk into a polluted environment rather than in clean, healthy air.”

WHO reports:
Almost the entire global population (99%) breathes air that exceeds WHO air quality limits, and threatens their health. A record number of over 6000 cities in 117 countries are now monitoring air quality, but the people living in them are still breathing unhealthy levels of fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide, with people in low and middle-income countries suffering the highest exposures.

The findings have prompted the World Health Organization to highlight the importance of curbing fossil fuel use and taking other tangible steps to reduce air pollution levels.

WHO Air Quality Database and Report 2022

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change Feedback Loops: Brown Carbon, Wildfires, and Arctic Melting

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Feedback loops accelerate climate change at an exponential rate. In this case, brown carbon from wildfires warms the arctic. The warmer arctic absorbs more heat causing more wildfires. In turn, more wildfires cause more brown carbon resulting in a warmer arctic. The cycle keeps reinforcing itself as it repeats.

A study published in One Earth entitled “Brown carbon from biomass burning imposes strong circum-Arctic warming” reports:
• Brown carbon imposes strong Arctic warming
• Warming effect of water-soluble brown carbon is ∼30% relative to black carbon
• Biomass burning (wildfires) contributes ∼60% of the warming effect of brown carbon
• Warming climate leads to increased wildfires that reinforce Arctic warming

Rapid warming in the Arctic has a huge impact on the global environment. Atmospheric brown carbon (BrC) is one of the least understood and uncertain warming agents due to a scarcity of observations. Here, we performed direct observations of atmospheric BrC and quantified its light-absorbing properties during a 2-month circum-Arctic cruise in summer of 2017. Through observation-constrained modeling, we show that BrC, mainly originated from biomass burning in the mid- to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (∼60%), can be a strong warming agent in the Arctic region, especially in the summer, with an average radiative forcing of ∼90 mW m−2 (∼30% relative to black carbon). As climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and spread of wildfires, we expect BrC to play an increasing role in Arctic warming in the future.

More on Climate Change

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Adapt or Die

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United Nations Press Release — UN scientists on Monday delivered a stark warning about the impact of climate change on people and the planet, saying that ecosystem collapse, species extinction, deadly heatwaves and floods are among the “unavoidable multiple climate hazards” the world will face over the next two decades due to global warming.

UN-IPCC-Climate-Change-March-2022 PDF

Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet. Taking action now can secure our future

BERLIN, Feb 28 – Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce the risks. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released today.

“This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.”

The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F). Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. Risks for society will increase, including to infrastructure and low-lying coastal settlements.

The Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Working Group II report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability was approved on Sunday, February 27 2022, by 195 member governments of the IPCC, through a virtual approval session that was held over two weeks starting on February 14.

Urgent action required to deal with increasing risks

Increased heatwaves, droughts and floods are already exceeding plants’ and animals’ tolerance thresholds, driving mass mortalities in species such as trees and corals. These weather extremes are occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to manage. They have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on Small Islands and in the Arctic.

To avoid mounting loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, ambitious, accelerated action is required to adapt to climate change, at the same time as making rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. So far, progress on adaptation is uneven and there are increasing gaps between action taken and what is needed to deal with the increasing risks, the new report finds. These gaps are largest among lower-income populations.

The Working Group II report is the second instalment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed this year.

“This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, biodiversity and people and integrates natural, social and economic sciences more strongly than earlier IPCC assessments,” said Hoesung Lee. “It emphasizes the urgency of immediate and more ambitious action to address climate risks. Half measures are no longer an option.”

Safeguarding and strengthening nature is key to securing a liveable future

There are options to adapt to a changing climate. This report provides new insights into nature’s potential not only to reduce climate risks but also to improve people’s lives.

“Healthy ecosystems are more resilient to climate change and provide life-critical services such as food and clean water”, said IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair Hans-Otto Pörtner. “By restoring degraded ecosystems and effectively and equitably conserving 30 to 50 per cent of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean habitats, society can benefit from nature’s capacity to absorb and store carbon, and we can accelerate progress towards sustainable development, but adequate finance and political support are essential.”

Scientists point out that climate change interacts with global trends such as unsustainable use of natural resources, growing urbanization, social inequalities, losses and damages from extreme events and a pandemic, jeopardizing future development.

“Our assessment clearly shows that tackling all these different challenges involves everyone – governments, the private sector, civil society – working together to prioritize risk reduction, as well as equity and justice, in decision-making and investment,” said IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair Debra Roberts.

“In this way, different interests, values and world views can be reconciled. By bringing together scientific and technological know-how as well as Indigenous and local knowledge, solutions will be more effective. Failure to achieve climate resilient and sustainable development will result in a sub-optimal future for people and nature.”

Cities: Hotspots of impacts and risks, but also a crucial part of the solution

This report provides a detailed assessment of climate change impacts, risks and adaptation in cities, where more than half the world’s population lives. People’s health, lives and livelihoods, as well as property and critical infrastructure, including energy and transportation systems, are being increasingly adversely affected by hazards from heatwaves, storms, drought and flooding as well as slow-onset changes, including sea level rise.

“Together, growing urbanization and climate change create complex risks, especially for those cities that already experience poorly planned urban growth, high levels of poverty and unemployment, and a lack of basic services,” Debra Roberts said.

“But cities also provide opportunities for climate action – green buildings, reliable supplies of clean water and renewable energy, and sustainable transport systems that connect urban and rural areas can all lead to a more inclusive, fairer society.”

There is increasing evidence of adaptation that has caused unintended consequences, for example destroying nature, putting peoples’ lives at risk or increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This can be avoided by involving everyone in planning, attention to equity and justice, and drawing on Indigenous and local knowledge.

A narrowing window for action

Climate change is a global challenge that requires local solutions and that’s why the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) provides extensive regional information to enable Climate Resilient Development.

The report clearly states Climate Resilient Development is already challenging at current warming levels. It will become more limited if global warming exceeds 1.5°C (2.7°F). In some regions it will be impossible if global warming exceeds 2°C (3.6°F). This key finding underlines the urgency for climate action, focusing on equity and justice. Adequate funding, technology transfer, political commitment and partnership lead to more effective climate change adaptation and emissions reductions.

“The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner.

bookmark_borderA Foot of Sea Level Rise

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports U.S. coastline to see up to a foot of sea level rise by 2050. That is three times the rate of the previous one hundred years.

“For businesses along the coast, knowing what to expect and how to plan for the future is critical,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “These updated projections will help businesses, and the communities they support, understand risks and make smart investments in the years ahead.”

“This new data on sea rise is the latest reconfirmation that our climate crisis ⁠— as the President has said ⁠— is blinking ‘code red,’” said Gina McCarthy, National Climate Advisor. “We must redouble our efforts to cut the greenhouse gases that cause climate change while, at the same time, help our coastal communities become more resilient in the face of rising seas.”

“By 2050, moderate flooding ⁠— which is typically disruptive and damaging by today’s weather, sea level and infrastructure standards ⁠— is expected to occur more than 10 times as often as it does today,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, NOAA National Ocean Service Director. “These numbers mean a change from a single event every 2-5 years to multiple events each year, in some places.”

The Sea Level Rise Technical Report provides the most up-to-date sea level rise projections for all U.S. states and territories by decade for the next 100 years and beyond, based on a combination of tide gauge and satellite observations and all the model ensembles from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report projects sea levels along the coastline will rise an additional 10-12 inches by 2050 with specific amounts varying regionally, mainly due to land height changes.

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bookmark_borderExtreme Rainfall–surge Hazard Risks

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by Daniel Brouse

Most climate change models forecast rising sea levels as the predominant threat of a warming climate to flood risks. Though sea level rise is of great concern, so should be extreme rainfall.

Both the sea and air temperatures are rising. Warm air can hold more moisture than cool air. Warmer sea temperatures result in more evaporation. Warmer air can hold more moisture. The increased moisture in the air moves over land causing inland deluges.

Hurricane Ida in the summer of 2021 is a good example. Because of the 85 degrees Fahrenheit Gulf of Mexico ocean temperature, Ida rapidly gained strength right before it made landfall jumping from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm. The warm air allowed more moisture to be carried as rain. The storm was so large that it was able to pick up more moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. The ocean moisture was carried inland and dumped over places like Pennsylvania and New York. Ida caused record flood damage in parts of Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida destroyed or damaged hundreds of homes in Southeastern Pennsylvania and caused more than $100 million in public infrastructure damage across the state.” There were more deaths in the Northeastern USA than where the storm made landfall in Louisiana. The New York Times reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused flash flooding and a number of deaths and disrupted transit across parts of New York and New Jersey. The storm killed at least 43 people in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut and left more than 150,000 homes without power.”

The Journal Nature published the study Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard examining how current models underestimate the risk of Rainfall–surge Hazard. “Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall–surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5–8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards’ historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7–36-fold in the southern US and 30–195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.”

From the article Rising Temperatures Bringing Bigger Floods published in the Journal Science, “CO2 emissions have boosted risk of intense precipitation and consequent flooding. To determine how rising temperatures have altered flood risk, atmospheric scientist Pardeep Pall of the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom and his colleagues ran thousands of climate simulations. In roughly half of them, they reduced atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to levels measured in the year 1900, and they adjusted ocean temperatures and the amount of Arctic sea ice—which affects high-latitude weather patterns—accordingly. In the other simulations, they modeled modern conditions. Then they compared the rainfall amounts generated in both types of simulations. Finally, they fed the rainfall values into a model that assesses the potential for flooding. In 90% of the simulations, results suggested that the flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 was at least 20% higher than it would have been in 1900.”

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture. More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding. In October of 2021 NOAA said, “a convergence of storms brought more than half a foot of rain to parts of the Bay area in addition to strong winds, flash floods, and mud/landslides. They also bring the potential for heavy snow to higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada mountain range.” (Atmospheric River Hits the West Coast)

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bookmark_border26% Increase in US Flood Risk by 2050 Due to Climate Change

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A study published in the Journal Nature, Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene, models a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change.

Flood Risk % Increase
Flood Risk % Increase

“Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution flood risk estimates in the United States indicates current average annual losses of US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) in 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately by poorer communities with a proportionally larger White population. The future increase in risk will disproportionately impact Black communities, while remaining concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Furthermore, projected population change (SSP2) could cause flood risk increases that outweigh the impact of climate change fourfold. These results make clear the need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the United States, with mitigation required to prevent the acceleration of these risks.”

This study/model shows the heaviest impact on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts; however, as the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture.
More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding. In October of 2021 NOAA said, “a convergence of storms brought more than half a foot of rain to parts of the Bay area in addition to strong winds, flash floods, and mud/landslides. They also bring the potential for heavy snow to higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada mountain range.” (Atmospheric River Hits the West Coast)

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bookmark_border25% of Critical Infrastructure at Risk of Flooding

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The First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology group that assesses the threat posed by flooding across the country, released a report that found one-forth of critical infrastructure in the USA is at risk of flooding including: police and fire stations, hospitals, airports and wastewater treatment facilities.

“With an increasing number of flooding 1events making U.S. headlines, there is a greater awareness of the economic and human cost that
flood-damaged infrastructure can produce. For instance, Hurricane Sandy flooded hospitals, crippled electrical substations, overwhelmed waste water treatment centers, and shut down power and water to tens of millions of people (U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, 2012). More recently, the impact of Hurricane Ida stretched across the country crippling the electrical grid in southern Louisiana, flooding the transportation infrastructure in the NYC metro area, and killing nearly 100 people. It is clear, now more than ever, that the ways and places in which we live are likely to continue to be impacted by our changing environment. One of the most important implications in this development is the vulnerability of our national infrastructure.”

About 1/4 (2 million miles) of roads are already at risk of becoming impassable due to flooding.

“And as global warming melts ice sheets, raises sea levels and tilts the odds in favor of more extreme rainfall events, the risk will grow in many more communities, the First Street report found. Over the next 30 years, the number of residential properties at risk of flooding is expected to grow from 12.4 million today to 13.6 million by 2051, the report says. For critical infrastructure and commercial properties, the number of vulnerable facilities are projected to grow by 6% and 7% respectively over the next three decades,” said Drew Kann and Ella Nilsen.

Infrastructure Flood Risk
Infrastructure Flood Risk

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bookmark_borderThe Cost of Flood Insurance

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An article in the New York Times entitled The Cost of Insuring Expensive Waterfront Homes Is About to Skyrocket states, “Federal officials say the goal is fairness — and also getting homeowners to understand the extent of the risk they face, and perhaps move to safer ground, reducing the human and financial toll of disasters.”

“Subsidized insurance has been critical for supporting coastal real estate markets,” said Benjamin Keys, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Removing that subsidy, he said, is likely to affect where Americans build houses and how much people will pay for them. “It’s going to require a major rethink about coastal living.”

In 2019, FEMA said it would instead price flood insurance based on the particular risks facing each individual property, a change the agency called “Risk Rating 2.0.”

“With a rapidly escalating threat of natural disasters, Risk Rating 2.0 is a much needed and timely change,” said Laura Lightbody of Pew Charitable Trusts, which has pushed governments to better respond to climate threats. Higher insurance costs, she said, were “a reflection of our new, wet reality.”

“For the first time, our policyholder premiums will be based on their individual risk,” said David Maurstad, who runs the flood insurance program at FEMA. “We pledge to continue to evaluate and make adjustments where and when it’s warranted.”

But the growing threat of climate change may make that kind of intervention less successful, said Roy Wright, who ran the flood insurance program until 2018 and now runs the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.

“We cannot hide the truth of this increasing risk,” Mr. Wright said. “We shouldn’t hide it. Tell people the truth.”

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