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bookmark_borderTipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History

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by Daniel Brouse
January 9, 2024

Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). That means global warming is accelerating at a rapid rate in a complex way.

Unfortunately, even scientists are failing to see (let alone forecast) the rapid acceleration in climate change. Due to their complexity, the impacts of the Domino Effect are being underestimated. Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. The Domino Effect is also known as “tipping cascades” in climate science. Cascading impacts in relation to tipping points include cascading impacts across biogeophysical and social systems. Until recently, scientist have been drastically underestimating the social-ecological systems. The University of Exeter reports, “There is a notable lack of topic clusters dedicated to how humans will be impacted by climate-related tipping cascades.”

The Age of Loss and Damage is a new way of thinking about economics by combining economics, climate science, statistics, and physics. Until now, economic models have been unfit to capture the full extent of climate damage. Traditionally, “integrated assessment models” (IAMs) were used to forecast “shock” events. IAMs use “quadratic function” to calculate GDP losses by squaring the temperature change, yet ignore other methods (such as the exponential function) that are better suited for rapid change. “Climate change is fundamentally different to other shocks because once it has hit, it doesn’t go away,” said Thierry Philipponnat, author of a report by Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public interest NGO on financial issues. “And if the fundamental assumption is flawed, all the rest makes little sense — if any.”

Reuters reported, “Critics say this (IAMs) choice is doomed to underplay the likely impact – particularly if the planet hits environmental tipping points in which damage is not only irreversible but happens at an ever-accelerating rate.” Thierry Philipponnat’s report, Finance in a Hot House World, concludes: “Climate risk is growing to disruptive levels throughout the financial system and the guardians of financial stability urgently need to adapt their tools to regain control.” The report calls for economic models that do not mislead, scenario analyses that prepare the market, and a new prudential tool to address the build-up of systemic climate risk.

Traditional economics is based upon the “costs and benefits” to society. Since there are no known long-term benefits of climate change to society, the Age of Loss and Damage economics focuses on the exponential costs of climate change to society.
— from The Age of Loss and Damage / Brouse (2023)

2023: The Hottest Year in Human History
2023 was a wake-up call to both biogeophysical and social-ecological scientists. The record breaking physical and economical impacts could be felt worldwide. The record warming year was seventeen times greater than any other record increase in history. Typically record breaking temperatures are measured in 100th degrees. There were also 200 consecutive days of record breaking temperatures. Typically there are one or two record breaking days in row. The increase in intensity and frequency of record breaking heat requires forecasting models to be recast.

2023 Biogeophysical Records

Global temperatures reached exceptionally high levels in 2023. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, monitored several key climate indicators throughout the year, reporting on record-breaking conditions such as the hottest month on record and daily global temperature averages briefly surpassing pre-industrial levels by more than 2°C. Unprecedented global temperatures from June onwards led 2023 to become the warmest year on record – overtaking by a large margin 2016, the previous warmest year.

Highlights: 

  • 2023 is confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to 1850
  • 2023 had a global average temperature of 14.98°C, 0.17°C higher than the previous highest annual value in 2016
  • 2023 was 0.60°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average and 1.48°C warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level
  • It is likely that a 12-month period ending in January or February 2024 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level
  • 2023 marks the first time on record that every day within a year has exceeded 1°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level. Close to 50% of days were more than 1.5°C warmer then the 1850-1900 level, and two days in November were, for the first time, more than 2°C warmer.
  • Annual average air temperatures were the warmest on record, or close to the warmest, over sizeable parts of all ocean basins and all continents except Australia
  • Each month from June to December in 2023 was warmer than the corresponding month in any previous year
  • July and August 2023 were the warmest two months on record. Boreal summer (June-August) was also the warmest season on record
  • September 2023 was the month with a temperature deviation above the 1991–2020 average larger than any month in the ERA5 dataset
  • December 2023 was the warmest December on record globally, with an average temperature of 13.51°C, 0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.78°C above the 1850-1900 level for the month. You can access information specific for December 2023 in our monthly bulletin
  • Global average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained persistently and unusually high, reaching record levels for the time of year from April through December
  • 2023 saw a transition to El Niño. In spring 2023, La Niña came to an end and El Niño conditions began to develop, with the WMO declaring the onset of El Niño in early July.
  • High SSTs in most ocean basins, and in particular in the North Atlantic, played an important role in the record-breaking global SSTs
  • The unprecedented SSTs were associated with marine heatwaves around the globe, including in parts of the Mediterranean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North Pacific, and much of the North Atlantic
  • 2023 was remarkable for Antarctic sea ice: it reached record low extents for the corresponding time of the year in 8 months. Both the daily and monthly extents reached all-time minima in February 2023
  • Arctic sea ice extent at its annual peak in March ranked amongst the four lowest for the time of the year in the satellite record. The annual minimum in September was the sixth-lowest
  • The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane continued to increase and reached record levels in 2023, reaching 419 ppm and 1902 ppb respectively. Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2023 were 2.4 ppm higher than in 2022 and methane concentrations increased by 11 ppb.
  • A large number of extreme events were recorded across the globe, including heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildfires. Estimated global wildfire carbon emissions in 2023 increased by 30% with respect to 2022 driven largely by persistent wildfires in Canada

2023 Social-Ecological Records

NOAA: 2023 A historic year of U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters

In 2023, the U.S. experienced 28 separate weather and climate disasters costing at least 1 billion dollars. That number puts 2023 into first place for the highest number of billion-dollar disasters in a calendar year and included:

  • 1 winter storm/cold wave event (across the northeast U.S. in early-February).
  • 1 wildfire event (firestorm destroying town of Lahaina on Maui Island of Hawaii).
  • 1 drought and heat wave event (focused across the central and southern U.S.).
  • 4 flooding events (in California, Florida, and across the eastern and northeastern U.S.).
  • 2 tornado outbreaks (across the central and eastern U.S.).
  • 2 tropical cyclones (Idalia in Florida and Typhoon Mawar in Guam).
  • 17 severe weather/hail events (across many parts of the country).

2023 was also deadly, causing at least 492 direct or indirect fatalities — the 8th most disaster-related fatalities for the contiguous U.S. since 1980.

What Can I Do?
There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

ALSO SEE: Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderViolent Rain and the Substrate

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Daniel Brouse asked:
As the sea levels rise, how far “inland” might we see salinization of fresh water? Is it possible saltwater could infiltrate the Great Lakes?

  • Lake Superior has an elevation of 600 feet above (current) sea level and a depth of 1,332 feet.
  • Lake Ontario is 243 feet above sea level with a depth of 802 feet.
The Great Lakes
The Great Lakes

Greg Laden:
Would not reach the Great lakes, but with a little erosion, the Hudson, Lake Champlain, and the St Lawrence could become contiguous, so New England becomes an Island.

Daniel Brouse:
Thanks! I am particularly interested in the Kennebecasis River (a tributary of the Saint John River in southern New Brunswick, Canada.) Your answer is what I was looking for. Do you have any thoughts on this process… in particular, the changing topography caused by extreme rain events? You can kind-of imagine Eastern and Western North America as giant beaches with ever increasing atmospheric waves splashing down on us. The Gulf Coast will be hit from both sides. We to see increasing intensity and/or frequency in a wide variety of violent rain events including: downpours, flooding, hurricanes, cyclones, monsoons, coastal flooding, storm surges, lightning and wildfires, hail, extreme wind, and concurrent extremes. The reign of violent rain has already begun. More hillsides and shorelines are collapsing. Atmospheric rivers are dramatically increasing flash flooding in the Northeastern USA. Worldwide, stormwater systems are becoming overwhelmed. Ironically, the streets of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, UAE, flooded days before the COP28 Climate Conference. Nowhere is safe from violent rain, not even in the desert preparing for a UN meeting on the climate crisis. As a result of increasing violent rain, new drainage culverts are forming. Eventually, the culverts will transform into recurring streams, carving new canyons, creating new landscapes and islands. Increased wildfires and landslides will transform topography. At the same time as the violent rain makes its way to the sea, the sea is rising to meet the violent rain. What do you think will happen to the floodplains in North America?

Greg Laden:
I have many thoughts on this, and this has been part of my research and study for a very long time, having done coastal archaeology in North America, etc. The basic question is what is the substrate? Sea level rise of 1 meter in Maine means the sea goes up to the top line that is currently 1 meter above the sea (we are ignoring tides) and that’s it for thousands of years. That is because Maine is made out of granite. Sea level rise of 1 meter along Cape Cod, which is glacial till, means that the sea will erode horizontally many many meters. In fact, Cape Cod is a dead-peninsula walking, even given pre-AGW sea level rise. It will all wash away eventually, except any rocky bits of bedrock that might be there (but they aren’t there AFIK) So, given that, yes, storms come in to play. The rate of erosion of Cap Cod, to continue with that example, accelerated in about 1979, due to increased severe coastal storm. What happens to a given floodplain will depend totally on local conditions. Many of our floodplains are not that often flooded, especially in glacial zones where they are filled up, and lower reaches of the giant rivers, and there is a lot of infrastructure in place that will initially control things.

Daniel Brouse:
You might be interested in King of Prussia and Plymouth Meeting, PA. The train derailment in Plymouth Meeting (July 17, 2023) was caused by extreme rainfall and flash flooding that resulted in sinkholes developing in the carbonate rock under the railroad tracks. In July and December of 2023, extreme rainfall resulted in sinkholes being exposed in the carbonate rock under Route 202 in King of Prussia, PA. I guess this is part of the local conditions that vary widely from location to location?

ALSO SEE: Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania and the Creation of the Climate Crisis / Daniel Brouse (2023)

The Reign of Violent Rain

Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now

Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration

Flood Insurance

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderGravity, Sea Level Rise and Surge

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjess

In general, the coasts that are seeing the largest storm surges are the same areas that are experiencing the fastest rate of sea level rise. The sea level does not rise at the same rate for most coastlines. Some of the conditions that determine the sea level at any given location include: water temperature (thermal expansion), circulation, ocean floor contour, ice melt, ocean dynamics, and Earth’s uneven gravity field.

Idalia Storm Surge 2023
Idalia Storm Surge 2023

The Shape of Things to Come
For the foreseeable future, storm surges will offer a good forecast of future sea level rise. Hurricane Idalia’s storm surge (pictured / 2023), brought a 10-15 storm surge to the northern coast of Florida. In 2022, Hurricane Ida brought a 14-20 foot storm surge to the southern coast of Florida. Ida also made landfall in Southeastern USA. Plaquemines Parish on the east bank of the Mississippi River had an estimated storm surge of at least 14 feet. Grand Isle, Louisiana, which was located just east of the landfall, was struck by 10.2 feet and rendered uninhabitable after the storm.

We know these areas of the United States will see sea levels rise at least 10-15 feet because it has already happened. Although it was only for hours, you wouldn’t want to live there during those hours. Not to mention, the frequency of these extreme weather events is rising exponentially. Thus, our recommendation to evacuate Florida now (i.e. Managed Retreat.) The billions of dollars spent to rebuild after Hurricane Ida will all be for naught. Allowing building will needlessly endanger property and lives. Parts of the world have already seen storm surges of 40 feet. I expect most North American coastlines will see sea levels rise, if only temporarily, by 20-40 feet this century. Within a generation, these areas could be submerged most of the time.

Don’t Be Fooled by Relative Variations
The level of the oceans is rising; however, some climate change deniers may try to claim that sea level is receding. Yes, in some instances certain areas will see a decline in the relative sea level. As ice melt accelerates, gravity and glacial isostatic adjustment will have a greater impact on where the sea level rises the most. Greenland is a good example. Greenland has one of the largest land ice sheets. You might think the sea would rise the fastest closest to the melt. “Greenland is like a bowl with large cracks in its sides.” The giant ice mass has sunk the ground, as well as, added a huge mass on top of it. Much of Greenland’s ice melt is just kind-of hanging out in the bowl. Two things are happening to change that:
1) As the ice mass melts, it exerts less gravitational pull on the surrounding water and the water gets pulled toward the equator.
2) At the same time, the Earth is rebounding under the bowl as the mass moves away. Much will depend on the extent and speed of the rebound. Though we don’t know how fast the rebound will happen, NASA has a satellite program gathering better data by measuring the gravitational pull on the satellite (GRACE Tellus Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment).

At the same time that Greenland is “rising”, many cities are sinking. Alexandria, Amsterdam, Bangkok, Charleston, Miami, New Orleans, New York, Chicago, and Norfolk are all “caving in.” Houston is the 10th-fastest sinking city in the world, and the U.S. city sinking the fastest.

Sidd added, “As the ice melts off Greenland, sea level will rise around Antarctica and drop around Greenland, and as the ice melts in Antarctica, sea will rise around Greenland and drop around Antarctica. In general, sea levels fall where the ice is melting and rise on the other side of the world. There is a small effect on earth rotation and polar direction, but not enough to worry about.”

Measuring Sea Level Rise
So, one of the biggest questions in the future is how do you measure sea level rise? From where the land was pre-industrial, where the land is today, or where the land is tomorrow? In any event, the Earth crossed tipping points which make extreme sea level rise inevitable and irreversible. Planners should plan on it.

Sidd reiterated, “That 270 feet of sea level rise will take a long time. I would be more careful about the violent rain than the ice melt.”

Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now

Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration

Flood Insurance

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderCOVID: Excess Deaths and Quality of Life

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by Daniel Brouse
December 14, 2023

COVID=19

Long-COVID, or post-infection COVID, appears to affect the majority of the population. For individuals that “recover” from COVID-19, they can expect a decreased quality of life and a premature death.

Decrease in Quality of Life
Known chronic conditions resulting from a COVID infection include: Permanent Organ Damage, Persistent SARS-CoV-2 RNA in multiple organs and throughout the brain, Destruction of Good Gut Bacteria Resulting in a Compromised Immune System, Epigenetic Modifications (Changes to DNA), Change in Cell Fate, Tryptophan Deficiency, Dysfunctional Kynurenine Pathway, Neurological Damage, New-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease, Exertional Intolerance, Oxygen Extraction, Reduced Exercise Capacity, Down Regulating NAD+, Up Regulating IDO, Rogue Antibodies, Insulin Reduction, Diabetes, High Cholesterol, Heart Disease and Stroke, Increased Risk of Cancer, Blood Clots, Hypertension, Vascular Disorders, Myocarditis and Heart Disease, Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), and Dysregulation of the innate immune system, i.e. “cytokine storm”.

Decrease in Life Expectancy
In epidemiology, the excess deaths or excess mortality is a measure of the increase in the number deaths.

On October 26, 2023, Insurance News Network reported, “Excess mortality is the difference between the total number of deaths for a specific time period and the number that would have been expected. The numbers were naturally forecast to climb during the pandemic, but some industry and health authorities are concerned the rates haven’t greatly diminished as COVID infection rates have declined.”

In November of 2023, the SOA Research Group released Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey Report finding the 39-month period of April 2020 through June 2023 showed the following Group Life mortality results:
• Estimated reported Group Life claim incidence rates were up 13.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis compared to 2017–2019 reported claims.
• Estimated incurred Group Life incidence rates were 12.2% higher than baseline on a seasonally-adjusted basis. As noted above, the incurred incidence rates in May and June 2023 are based on fairly incomplete data, so they are subject to change and should not be fully relied upon at this point.

90% of these excess deaths were caused by post-COVID conditions. 10% of the excess deaths are attributed to the COVID virus.

A Boston University study identified a total of 1,179,024 excess deaths from March 2020 through February 2022, including an estimated 634,830 excess deaths from March 2020 to February 2021, and 544,194 estimated excess deaths from March 2021 to February 2022.

Causes
A decrease in life expectancy, quality of life, or death after a COVID infection is usually caused by complications from the infection, persistent virus (chronic infection), and/or epigenetic changes.

COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 / Novel Coronavirus

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Atmospheric Rivers

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Extreme Rainfall–surge Hazard Risk Basics and Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2022)

West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

Greenland Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee (2023)

ALSO SEE:

Real Estate and Flood Insurance Brouse and Mukherjee (1999 to present)
The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)
Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderGreenland Atmospheric Rivers

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by Sidd Mukherjee

Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast.

Atmospheric rivers have been putting serious rainfall melt on Greenland for the last decade, too.

Darker snow surfaces absorb more sunlight and melt quicker. This effect is visible in Greenland. Box et al.,”Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers,” The Cryosphere, v6, pp821 et seq., doi:10.5194/tc-6-821-2012 state: ” Thus, intraseasonal summer albedo variability exceeds 0.50 over parts of the ice sheet where a snow layer ablates by mid-summer, exposing an impurity-rich ice surface …” Prof. Box is now investigating soot from North American wildfires as a factor in the darkening of Greenland.
— from News from the Ice Wars:An Occasional Bulletin

“Furthermore, our investigation of the short- and long-term relationships between moisture transport vents and modeled GrIS surface properties proves that this correspondence between the years of enhanced AR activity and anomalous GrIS mass loss is not a coincidence. Strong AR impacts cause increased melt in all areas of the GrIS and decreased SMB in the ablation zone during summer, and warm seasons with above-average GrIS melt extent are characterized by anomalously strong moisture transport by ARs over Greenland. ARs typically result in SMB gains in the GrIS ablation zone during nonsummer seasons and in the accumulation zone during all seasons. However, the intense summer SMB losses in the ablation zone during years of enhanced moisture transport outweigh the positive AR contributions to SMB in other regions and seasons. The scaling of melt versus snowfall in Figures 9 and 11 shows that the magnitude of mass loss from summer melt in the ablation zone has a much greater upper limit than mass gain from snowfall.”

In this paper see especially Fig. 9.

Then in 2018, Neff publishes again: more on atmospheric rivers causing the full surface melt in greenland in 2012.
— from Atmospheric River Impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet SurfaceMass Balance

“Rainfall at the Greenland ice sheet Summit 14 August 2021, was delivered by an atmospheric river (AR). Extreme surface ablation expanded the all-Greenland bare ice area to near-record-high with snowline climbing up to 788 ± 90 m. Ice sheet wet snow extent reached 46%, a record high for the 15–31 August AMSR data since 2003. Heat-driven firn deflation averaged 0.14 ± 0.05 m at four accumulation area automatic weather stations (AWSs). Energy budget calculations from AWS data indicate that surface heating from rainfall is much smaller than from either the sensible, latent, net-longwave or solar energy fluxes. ”

“Rainfall heat transfer contributed just 2% to the calculated melting at a 2,200 m elevation western ice sheet site (CP1 a.k.a. Crawford Point). Condensation or sensible heat transfer from the warm air mass was a far more powerful heat source. The observed amount of melting delivered by the AR could have happened without rain- fall. Yet, the impacts of rain and meltwater refreeze are considerable provided that percolation delivers the melt below where the heat can be radiated away and that refreeze-at-depth occurs. We found no evidence for the latter condition because the rainfall amount was not extreme and the surface was already melting hours before the rain- fall. Understanding any changes to the frequency and intensity of ARs appears to be a more important research target than the heat content of the liquid precipitation ARs may or may not produce Further, while rainfall that does not percolate and refreeze may not have strong surface thermodynamic impacts, rainfall contribution to the hydraulics of Greenland ice (Doyle et al., 2015) may be more consequential to ablation through ice sheet flow acceleration.”

open access, read all about it. The Watson river discharge described in the paper drains the saddle between north and south domes and is an area that i watch closely for signs of collapse. I suppose this is one.
— from Greenland Ice Sheet Rainfall, Heat and Albedo Feedback Impacts From the Mid-August 2021 Atmospheric River

ALSO SEE:
West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderWest Coast Atmospheric Rivers

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by Daniel Brouse

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture. More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding. In October of 2021 NOAA said, “a convergence of storms brought more than half a foot of rain to parts of the Bay area in addition to strong winds, flash floods, and mud/landslides. They also bring the potential for heavy snow to higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada mountain range.” (Atmospheric River Hits the West Coast)

In December 2022 and January 2023, California experienced nine back-to-back atmospheric rivers; the longest stretch of continuous atmospheric river conditions on record. NOAA went on to report, “Several atmospheric rivers struck in March 2023, bringing heavy rain and snowfall to much of the West. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the statewide snowpack was among the deepest ever recorded for the end of March — 237% of normal.”

In October of 2023, a tropical storm turned into category 5 Hurricane Otis in a record 12-hour intensification. Hurricane expert Kerry Emanual said Otis was supercharged by global warming. Historically, hurricanes’ intensification was driven by ocean surface temperatures. Otis was additionally supercharged by increasing temperatures deeper in the ocean. Hurricane Otis became the strongest on record to hit Mexico’s Pacific coast. NOAA reported, “When Otis first hit, mudslides outside the city in mountainous terrain prevented crews from traveling to the city to provide aid, and according to the Associated Press, the 10,000 troops that were deployed to the area lacked the tools needed to clear mud and downed trees off roads.”

ALSO SEE:
East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

 

bookmark_borderEast Coast Atmospheric Rivers

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by Daniel Brouse
December 10, 2023

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture (water vapor). When more moisture-laden air moves over land it can create atmospheric rivers. In the Northwestern USA, the atmospheric rivers are commonly called the Pineapple Express. The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast. “Actually their frequency is not really increasing. Meteorologists have used the term for decades. It has simply become popular by the media. Just like polar vortex,” said Jeff Boyne National Weather Service meteorologist and climatologist. Indeed, “atmospheric rivers are more frequent on the East Coast than they are on the West Coast,” said Jason Cordeira, associate professor of meteorology at Plymouth State University. “They’re just not as impactful and don’t usually produce as much rainfall.”

What is changing is the research into the types and increasing intensity of East Coast AR events. “Between 1958 and 2012, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of rainfall measured during heavy precipitation events, more than in any other region in the United States. Projections indicate continuing increases in precipitation, especially in winter and spring and in northern parts of the region,” as reported in The US Fourth National Climate Assessment.

Most types of East Coast ARs are increasing in intensity likely due to climate change. The study Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends reports, “The impact of increasing moisture transport could be significant across the northeast corridor from Washington D.C. to Coastal Maine, as it increases the risk of extreme precipitation from landfalling ARs. The results indicate most ARs in the study domain are forced by extratropical cyclones, with lee side low pressure systems and coastal lows along the Atlantic Coast (e.g. nor’easters) responsible for producing the strongest ARs.”

How Fast Are Atmospheric Rivers Gaining Intensity?
Some areas of the world are now warming so fast, it is becoming more difficult to measure the change from “normal” or average. Jeff Boyne of the NWS said, “There are climate normals that are updated every 10 to 15 years, because the planet is warming so fast. The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) regions are warming so fast that those normals are being updated every 5 years.” Overall, how fast is climate change accelerating? Rapidly. “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “September was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” said Zeke Hausfather, at the Berkeley Earth climate data project.”

ALSO SEE:

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderLong-COVID 2023 / 2024 Update

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COVID=19

by Daniel Brouse
November 2023 – March 2024

In February of 2020, I contracted SARS-CoV-2. Then, I continued to experience long-term complications and chronic conditions. The article Long COVID Update: 3 Years of Living With It describes the symptoms and the knowledge gained from the experience.

Now I am approaching 4 years and continue to get asked for help by others. Here is what I have learned:

Long-COVID has pretty much been classified into three categories — complications from the infection, persistent virus (chronic infection), and epigenetic changes. Complications from infection are lifelong chronic conditions most often seen in the lungs and respiratory system. Persistent virus can sometimes be cured with post-infection vaccination. Epigenetic changes can sometimes be reversed but many times they cannot. It is likely some epigenetic changes can become genetic changes that may be passed on to future generations (similar to cigarette smoking.)

The most significant research has found that defects in iron homeostasis (low iron), dysregulated erythropoiesis, and immune dysfunction (prolonged elevation of cytokines) resulting from COVID-19 may contribute to inefficient oxygen transport, inflammatory imbalances, and persistent symptoms. The information on autoimmune diseases emphasizes that an excessive release of cytokines, which are signaling molecules involved in immune responses, can lead to an exaggerated inflammatory response. This heightened inflammation has the potential to damage tissues and contribute to autoimmune diseases, where the immune system mistakenly attacks healthy cells.

Overview
1) The virus itself can cause death and long term organ damage. Millions and millions of people have died from COVID. Many millions more have become permanently disabled.
2) SARS-CoV-2 can be a persistent virus (chronic infection) that continues to live and destroy your organs for months or years after the initial infection. COVID may also leave residual SARS-CoV-2 protein that is associated with long COVID. A persistent virus behaves in various ways. With Chicken Pox, it leads to Shingles. With Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), it leads to Mononucleosis and Multiple Sclerosis. Epstein-Barr is a member of the herpesvirus family. Many people are already familiar with the persistent nature of herpes viruses, such as, cold sores and genital herpes. HIV is another example of a persistent virus. COVID acts like an accelerant to aging and has been found to impact the function of multiple organs including the kidneys, heart, and brain.
3) Post-COVID individuals have a compromised immune system (immunocompromised), as well as, increased risk of autoimmune diseases. There are also locally disturbed immune responses caused by mental and/or physical exertion in patients with long-COVID.
4) SARS-CoV-2 causes genetic and epigenetic changes to your DNA. These changes include long term compromising of the immune system, increased risk of diabetes, hypertension, and cancer, as well as, damaging the neurological, circulatory, and cardiovascular systems. Any ailments for which you are predisposed will likely be elevated to the next stage (eg prediabetic –> diabetic).
5) Long-COVID is likely a combination of persistent virus, residual SARS-CoV-2 protein, epigenetic and genetic changes that may last indefinitely.
6) COVID reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and damage to multiple organ systems and exacerbates underlying conditions including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders.

Niacin (nicotinic acid), zinc, and vitamin D are highly recommended to help reduce the severity of long term complications. I take take 25-50mg of niacin with each meal. Niacin does not stay in the bloodstream for more than a couple hours. Taking large doses once a day is not nearly as effective as taking small doses throughout the day. I crush zinc and allow it to linger in the mouth as it is better absorbed that way. Zinc lozenges are an alternative. Vitamin D is best obtained through a combination of a once-a-day supplement and limited exposure to sunlight. I radically changed my diet to enhance NAD+ production.

The increase in excess deaths and long-term amplification of genetic conditions indicates most COVID complications cannot be cured. Unfortunately, this means a shorter life-expectancy as well as a diminished quality of life. On October 26, 2023, Insurance News Network reported, “Excess mortality is the difference between the total number of deaths for a specific time period and the number that would have been expected. The numbers were naturally forecast to climb during the pandemic, but some industry and health authorities are concerned the rates haven’t greatly diminished as COVID infection rates have declined.”

Personally, it forever messed with my blood pressure, lipid profile, hepatic function panel, A1C, and others.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The reason I am aware of my condition is because I am actively researching long-COVID and am aggressively pursuing medical testing. If you had COVID, there is a 99% chance that you, too, have chronic conditions. SARS-CoV-2 causes genetic and epigenetic changes to your DNA. These changes include long-term compromising of the immune system, increased risk of diabetes, hypertension, and cancer, as well as, damaging the neurological, circulatory, and cardiovascular systems. Any ailments for which you are predisposed will likely be elevated to the next stage. See your doctor. Get all the tests you can especially blood work. If you have a family history of inherited genetic disorders, seek counsel from your physician. Many of the epigenetic changes are undetected for a year or two after infection; however, the sooner treatment is started, the better. Medications, diet, and other lifestyle changes can help treat the conditions, improve your quality of life, and increase your life expectancy.

High levels of cardiovascular issues have occurred in youth. We do not know why COVID causes this problem; however, it appears NAD+ is another common factor in the youth (in effect causing them to age faster/shortening life expectancy.) We don’t know if the two are related. Niacin is recommended to help stabilize NAD+.

Niacin is crucial to NAD+. COVID hijacks the precursors that create NAD+. Niacin is a substitute. Niacin does not cure the cause but it does treat the symptoms. At my worst symptoms, I was taking 500mg/day. After the vaccines were invented and I was vaccinated, most of my “long-COVID” symptoms (brain-fog, fatigue, inflammation, etc) subsided. Vaccination appears to have cured the persistent virus part of the disease. Several studies have shown post-infection vaccination treats persistent infection and “covid-19 vaccines might have protective and therapeutic effects on long-covid.” The epigenetic changes still persist, though. Now, I take 50mg/day to help my naturally aging NAD+. The most important part of the Niacin protocol is that you are really taking Niacin — nicotinic acid — NOT no-flush Niacin. If you are deficient in Niacin, you will flush. This will help you know you are taking the right supplement. Flushing is normal and will not harm you; nevertheless, you may want to start with a small dose to mentally prepare. The paper COVID, Vitamin B3 (Nicotinic Acid), and the Immune System helps explain Niacin in more detail.

Did you know that milk does not naturally contain vitamin D? How about that Niacin is added to breakfast cereals? This is because most Americans main source of vitamin D3 and Niacin (vitamin B3) is through their “fortified” breakfast foods. Chances are large you are starting deficient in D and Niacin. Both of these slow the aging process and help prevent diseases. Talk to your doctor about taking supplements.

Summary
Vaccinations may help treat the persistent virus and the residual SARS protein parts of long-COVID. In my case, that is what happened. Vaccination helped treat my “long-COVID symptoms” (fatigue, brain fog, lack of taste); however, I still have the genetic changes that increased my blood pressure and caused my blood labs to spike. Most people do not know that they have these genetic changes. Almost everybody that has had COVID has some form of long-COVID they just don’t know it. The problem appears to be worse in females (believed to be due to hormones.) Almost everybody has a compromised immune system that has had COVID.

10% of excess deaths are attributed to COVID. The other 90% are from COVID’s silent killers. Everyone that has had COVID is likely to have a diminished quality of life and a premature death. As Dr. Rob Wüst says, “There is something inside the body going wrong with the disease.”

Among the many epigenetic changes made by COVID is the down regulating of NAD+ and the hijacking of tryptophan resulting in physical and mental illnesses. Most individuals become deficient in
niacin (nicotinic acid), zinc, and vitamin D. It is likely that COVID causes epigenetic changes to predisposed conditions, so treatments will vary widely depending on your genes.

What is the call to action here? Just don’t get it? Or something else?
Yes. Both. Certainly avoid getting it at all costs. Do not get it multiple times. The virus works opposite of the typical virus where the immune system gains immunity strength fighting the infection. COVID compromises your immune system. Most people develop a form of autoimmune disease. Second, and just as important, is to start treatment ASAP. The virus WILL cause epigenetic changes to your genes triggering predisposed genes. For examples, I have seen people develop an iron deficiency likely because they were predisposed to iron-deficiency anemia. I have seen people develop pernicious anemia likely because they were predisposed to a B12 deficiency. I have seen people develop breast cancer that did have the breast cancer 1 (BRCA1) and breast cancer 2 (BRCA2) genes. People with a family history of cardiovascular conditions have had to double their medications. Several have suffered strokes or heart attacks. Quite a few people I know have turned pre-diabetic while other pre-diabetics have become diabetic. THE EARLIER YOUR INDIVIDUAL CONDITIONS ARE TREATED THE BETTER. Review your family health history. Get a medical physical. Insist on blood labs that include B12 and D. Change your diet as if you were diagnosed with cancer, cardiovascular conditions, high cholesterol, and diabetes. If you feel excess fatigue or brain fog after physical or mental exertion, stop that routine.

New Health Concern
COVID compromises your immune system. Now, I am seeing people having difficulty fighting the common cold and other typical illnesses. Often they are coming down with symptoms that last for weeks. Unfortunately, this is allowing weaker viruses to mutate in their body and become more efficient. At the same time, their immune systems are becoming weaker. A vicious downward health cycle for the planet. Perhaps you should be wearing a mask if you’ve had COVID in the past? After all, you are immunocompromised.

FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS:
1. Is that the original vitamin stack (niacin plus) still the same or have you all updated it?
2. Is it for everyone who has had COVID or just if symptoms of long-COVID?
3. They comment about excess fatigue. Where are you going with that? Does post-COVID fatigue have a treatment?

1) I take take 25-50mg of niacin with each meal. Niacin does not stay in the bloodstream for more than a couple hours. Taking large doses once a day is not nearly as effective as taking small doses throughout the day. I crush 5mg of zinc twice-a-day and allow it to linger in the mouth as it is better absorbed that way. Zinc lozenges are an alternative. Vitamin D is best obtained through a combination of a once-a-day supplement and limited exposure to sunlight. I radically changed my diet to enhance NAD+ production.
2) Everyone who has had COVID. The symptoms of long-COVID are only about 1/3 of the disease. 2/3 of the disease are the “silent killers” and show no symptoms. 99% of people that have had COVID have genetic changes with negative health consequences.
3) My fatigue was part of the 1/3 of the disease with symptoms. In my case, it was being caused by persistent virus. Similar to HIV, COVID can covertly live and thrive undetected. Once I killed the persistent virus (by getting vaccinated), the chronic fatigue and brain fog were cured. However, all my epigenetic changes remain i.e. the silent killers e.g. elevated blood pressure, cholesterol, liver enzymes, etc.

Coronavirus: Science Based Information on the Covid-19 Virus

bookmark_borderClimate Change and the Carbon Feedback Loop

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by Daniel Brouse

The atmosphere is acting like a blanket… and the earth (land and sea) is acting like a battery. 91% of the energy (as heat) is trapped/stored in the oceans.

Feedback Loops Example

The Albedo feedback loop between the earth and the CO2 in the atmosphere accelerates global warming at an exponential rate. Albedo is the fraction of incoming solar radiation that gets reflected back into space. Carbon plays a double whammy role in feedback loops.

Brown carbon on ice, snow, or permafrost absorbs more heat and releases more carbon and methane into the atmosphere… resulting in more warming… leading to more carbon being released from the earth, etc.

Brown carbon is light-absorbing organic carbon with a very low Albedo. “This class of organic carbon, known for its light brownish color, absorbs strongly in the ultraviolet wavelengths and less significantly going into the visible,” reports the Argonne National Laboratory.

There are several feedback loops between brown carbon, lightning, wildfires, and arctic warming. Brown carbon from wildfires warms the arctic. The warmer arctic absorbs more heat causing more wildfires. In turn, more wildfires cause more brown carbon resulting in a warmer arctic. The cycle keeps reinforcing itself as it repeats.

Studies have found lightning and forest fires are creating a feedback loop. Global warming causes more extreme weather events and conditions for lightning. More lightning sparks a vicious cycle, as trees and soil set ablaze release warming CO2 creating more storms and more lightning. The study Forests at Risk Due to Lightning Fires found a sensitivity of extratropical intact forests to potential increases in lightning fires, which would have far-reaching consequences for terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity.

More wildfires create more CO2 and more brown carbon that result in more global warming that results in more lightning strikes creating more wildfires resulting in more global warming thawing more permafrost  allowing more emissions of CO2 and methane resulting in more warming, creating many more feedback loops.

Feedback loops and tipping points are parts of an equation that determine the rate of acceleration in climate change. Triggering these tipping points results in the CO2 stored in nature to be released without the assistance of humans. Though we do not know how much carbon is stored in nature, it would be reasonable to assume that the temperature could be pushed from 3 degrees to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Humans cannot thrive above a rise of 1.5 degrees. Much of the Earth will be uninhabitable if the temperature rises an additional 6 degrees Celsius. If humans also add 3 degrees Celsius, the temperature and humidity will approach a wet-bulb temperature that will not sustain human life.

When a tipping point topples and knocks over other tipping points, it is called the Domino Effect.