Category: Energy

bookmark_borderHow is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

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By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee

Climate change poses risks to real estate in the United States in various ways, and these risks can affect property values, insurance costs, and overall property resilience. Here are some ways in which all US real estate is at risk from climate change:

  1. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Properties:
    • Coastal properties are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. As sea levels continue to rise due to global warming, properties near coastlines may experience increased flooding and damage from more frequent and severe storms. Storm surges in Florida are an example.
  2. Extreme Weather Events:
    • Climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts. Properties in regions prone to these events are at risk of damage, destruction, and increased insurance costs.
  3. Temperature Extremes:
    • Rising temperatures can lead to more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, affecting property infrastructure, energy demand, and potentially decreasing property values in areas with extreme heat.
  4. Changes in Precipitation Patterns:
    • Changes in precipitation patterns, including increased violent rainfall or prolonged droughts, can impact properties by causing flooding, landslides, or water scarcity. These changes may affect property values and increase maintenance costs.
  5. Wildfires:
    • Increased temperatures and changing precipitation patterns contribute to the risk of wildfires. Properties in wildfire-prone areas face threats to both their physical structures and the surrounding environment.
  6. Homeowners and Flood Insurance Costs:
    • Flood insurance will become expensive and difficult to obtain. Climate-related risks can lead to higher insurance premiums and deductibles, particularly in high-risk areas. As the frequency and severity of climate-related events increase, insurance companies may reassess risk models and adjust pricing accordingly.
  7. Infrastructure Vulnerability:
    • Climate change can impact infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and utilities. Properties relying on vulnerable infrastructure may face challenges related to accessibility, reliability, and potential increases in repair and maintenance costs.
  8. Health Risks:
    • Humans will experience greater loss and damage to life and quality of life from air pollution, decreasing supply of potable water, extreme weather events, and disease. The greatest short term climate change risk to human health is deadly humid heat (wet-bulb temperature). Climate change can affect human health, and properties in areas prone to heatwaves, air pollution, or vector-borne diseases may face increased health risks. This could influence property values and community desirability.Almost all survivors of climate-related disasters suffer from mental distress. Of those who have not experienced climate disasters, more than two-thirds of U.S. adults (68%) have reported climate change anxiety.
  9. Regulatory Changes:
    • Governments may implement stricter building codes, zoning regulations, and disclosure requirements related to climate-related risks. Non-compliance could affect property values and lead to increased costs for property owners. Loss and damage litigation against oil companies and governments will change world economics.
  10. Shifts in Property Demand:

It’s important to note that the degree of risk varies by region and property type. Some areas may experience more immediate and severe impacts, while others may be more resilient. Assessing and mitigating these risks require a comprehensive understanding of local climate vulnerabilities and the implementation of strategies to enhance property resilience. Policymakers, real estate professionals, and property owners are increasingly recognizing the importance of addressing climate risks to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of real estate assets. Thus, our recommendation to evacuate Florida now (i.e. Managed Retreat).

Create a Climate-Resilient Environment in and Around Your Home Brouse (2024)

Managed Retreat: Relocating Due to Climate Change Extreme Weather Events Brouse (2023)

Stormwater Runoff Management for Your House Brouse (2024)

Tree Extinction Due to Human Induced Environmental Stress Mukherjee and Brouse (2005-present)

Soil Degradation and Desertification Brouse (2024)

Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee and Brouse (2022-2023)

Violent Rain and the Substrate Brouse and Laden (2024)

The Long-term Breathing Experiment Brouse (2023)

Health Impacts of Air Pollution Brouse (2023)

Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania and the Substrate Daniel Brouse (2023)

Real Estate Underwater: A Florida Climate Change Case Study Daniel Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

Real Estate and Climate Change: Stranded on an Island Daniel Brouse (2023)

Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History Brouse (2024)

All About Flood Insurance Brouse and Mukherjee (1995-present)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderClimate Change and How Soil Degradation Can Lead to Desertification

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Why is soil integral to climate change? How does soil degradation lead to desertification?

Soil plays a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaptation, and soil degradation can contribute to the process of desertification. Here’s why soil is integral to climate change and how soil degradation can lead to desertification:

Importance of Soil in Climate Change:

  1. Carbon Sequestration:
    • Healthy soils act as a significant carbon sink, storing large amounts of carbon in the form of organic matter. This process, known as carbon sequestration, helps mitigate climate change by reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere.
  2. Water Regulation:
    • Soil influences water availability and regulates the water cycle. Healthy soils absorb and store water, reducing the risk of floods and contributing to moisture availability during dry periods. This capacity for water regulation is crucial for climate resilience.
  3. Biodiversity Support:
    • Healthy soils provide habitat and support for a diverse range of organisms, including bacteria, fungi, insects, and plant roots. Biodiversity in the soil contributes to ecosystem stability, resilience, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions.
  4. Nutrient Cycling:
    • Soil is essential for nutrient cycling, as it hosts microbial communities that break down organic matter and make nutrients available to plants. This nutrient cycling supports plant growth and contributes to overall ecosystem health.

Soil Degradation and Desertification:

  1. Erosion:
    • Soil degradation, often caused by factors like deforestation, overgrazing, and unsustainable agricultural practices, can lead to increased soil erosion. Erosion removes the topsoil layer, which is rich in organic matter and nutrients, reducing the soil’s fertility and water retention capacity.
  2. Loss of Soil Structure:
    • Poor land management practices, such as excessive plowing, deforestation, and improper irrigation, can lead to the loss of soil structure. This makes the soil more susceptible to erosion, reduces water infiltration, and hinders the growth of vegetation.
  3. Decreased Carbon Sequestration:
    • Soil degradation results in the loss of organic matter, reducing the soil’s ability to sequester carbon. This can contribute to increased atmospheric CO2 levels, exacerbating the greenhouse effect and climate change.
  4. Loss of Biodiversity:
    • Degraded soils often experience a decline in microbial and plant diversity. This loss of biodiversity weakens the soil’s resilience to environmental stresses and reduces its capacity to support healthy ecosystems.
  5. Increased Vulnerability to Climate Change:
    • Degraded soils are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events, droughts, and temperature variations. This vulnerability can create a feedback loop, where climate change further exacerbates soil degradation.
  6. Desertification:
    • Desertification is the process by which fertile land becomes increasingly arid and unproductive, eventually turning into desert-like conditions. Soil degradation, through erosion, loss of organic matter, and reduced water retention, is a key driver of desertification.
  7. Impact on Livelihoods:
    • Desertification poses a threat to agricultural productivity, water resources, and local livelihoods. It can lead to the displacement of communities and exacerbate social and economic challenges, contributing to a cycle of poverty and environmental degradation.

Addressing soil degradation is crucial for sustainable land management, climate change mitigation, and the prevention of desertification. Implementing conservation practices, agroforestry, reforestation, and sustainable agriculture techniques can help restore and protect soils, contributing to climate resilience and biodiversity conservation.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate-Resilient Environment Around Your Home

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by Daniel Brouse

Soil is integral to our climate.

What are the best methods to mitigate against climate change by providing wind breaks, shade, moisture retention, and climate control, around my home, as well as prevent soil degradation and desertification?

Creating a sustainable and climate-resilient environment around your home involves a combination of practices that address wind breaks, shade, moisture retention, climate control, and prevention of soil degradation. Here are some effective methods:

  1. Planting Trees and Vegetation:
    • Wind Breaks and Shade: Planting windbreaks, such as rows of trees or shrubs, can protect your home from strong winds and provide shade. Deciduous trees strategically placed on the south and west sides of your home can offer shade during hot seasons while allowing sunlight through during colder seasons.
    • Moisture Retention: Trees and vegetation help retain moisture in the soil by reducing evaporation. Mulching around plants and trees further aids in moisture retention.
    • Climate Control: Trees act as natural air conditioners, cooling the surrounding environment through a process called transpiration. This can contribute to a more comfortable microclimate around your home.
  2. Rainwater Harvesting:
    • Install rain barrels or cisterns to collect rainwater. This harvested water can be used for watering plants, reducing the need for additional irrigation and helping with moisture retention in the soil.
  3. Appropriate Plant Selection:
    • Choose native or drought-resistant plants that are well-suited to your local climate. These plants typically require less water, contribute to soil stability, and are more resilient in the face of climate variability.
  4. Contour Planting and Terracing:
    • Contour planting involves planting along the contour lines of the land to slow down water runoff, promoting infiltration and reducing soil erosion. Terracing is another method to control water runoff on sloped terrain.
  5. Ground Cover and Cover Crops:
    • Planting ground cover or cover crops helps prevent soil erosion, improves moisture retention, and contributes to overall soil health. These plants protect the soil surface from the impact of raindrops and enhance soil structure.
  6. Permeable Surfaces:
    • Use permeable surfaces, such as permeable pavers or gravel, in areas around your home. This allows rainwater to infiltrate into the soil rather than running off, contributing to soil moisture and preventing erosion.
  7. Composting:
    • Implement composting practices to improve soil structure and fertility. Healthy soils are more resistant to erosion, and they can retain moisture better, promoting plant growth.
  8. Integrated Pest Management (IPM):
    • Practice IPM techniques to manage pests without resorting to excessive use of pesticides. Healthy ecosystems are more resilient to climate stresses, and minimizing chemical inputs helps maintain biodiversity and soil health.
  9. Microclimate Planning:
    • Plan your landscaping to create microclimates around your home. For example, placing hard surfaces like rocks or pavement near the home can absorb and release heat, contributing to temperature regulation.
  10. Educate and Involve the Community:
  • Collaborate with neighbors and community members to implement sustainable practices collectively. Building awareness and working together can have a more significant impact on preventing soil degradation and desertification.

By integrating these practices, you can contribute to a more sustainable and climate-resilient environment around your home while mitigating the impacts of climate change and promoting soil health.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe Relationships Between M-Theory, Chaos Theory, and Music

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The relationships between M-theory, chaos theory, and music are a complex and interdisciplinary topic.

  1. M-theory:
    • M-theory is the theory of “everything” in physics that attempts to unify the five string theories. It posits that the fundamental building blocks of the universe are not particles but rather one-dimensional “strings.”
    • Some scientists and theorists have explored the idea that the vibrational nature of strings in M-theory could have parallels with the vibrational nature of musical notes. String theory hypothesizes that very small “strings” vibrations produce the observed particles and forces of nature similar to a vibrating guitar string and heard in Pythagorean harmonies. If you view a guitar string in slow motion, it moves in a variety of ways at the same time in a similar fashion as the forces in subatomic particles.
  2. Chaos Theory:
    • Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics that studies complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to initial conditions. It deals with deterministic systems that can exhibit unpredictable, chaotic behavior.
    • Chaos theory studies unordered systems. Being in a hurricane is an example of visualizing chaos theory. If you are in the hurricane, the weather appears chaotic; however, if you pull back to a satellite view, you can see a spiraling weather system.
    • The connection between chaos theory and music is more direct than M-theory. Some musicians and composers have incorporated chaos theory principles into their compositions, using mathematical algorithms to generate music that exhibits chaotic or unpredictable patterns. This can result in unique and non-traditional musical structures. Similar to a hurricane, some musical compositions sound chaotic when you are in the middle of it; however, when you pull back and listen to the combined elements, a structure can be heard.
  3. Music:
    • Music is the art of organizing sound in time to produce emotional or aesthetic responses. It encompasses a wide range of styles, genres, and structures.
    • The relationship between music, M-theory, and chaos theory is often explored at a conceptual or metaphorical level. Some theorists and artists find inspiration in scientific theories, such as M-theory and chaos theory, to inform their creative processes or to conceptualize the nature of sound and composition.

In summary, while the connections between M-theory, chaos theory, and music are not straightforward, there is ongoing exploration and inspiration drawn from these scientific concepts in the realm of music and the arts.

 

In the context of live music concerts, chaos theory can be used as a metaphor to describe the complex and unpredictable nature of the interactions between various elements, such as the audience, performers, venue, and technical aspects. Here are some ways in which chaos theory can be related to live music concerts:

  1. Audience Dynamics: The behavior of the audience is a key element in a live music concert. Small changes, such as the energy level of the crowd or the response to a particular song, can have a cascading effect on the overall atmosphere of the concert. Chaos theory helps explain how these seemingly small variations can lead to significant differences in the overall experience.
  2. Improvisation: Many live music performances involve an element of improvisation. Musicians may make spontaneous decisions based on the audience’s reaction or the overall vibe of the concert. Chaos theory highlights how these improvisational moments can create unique and unpredictable outcomes.
  3. Sound and Acoustics: The acoustics of a venue, influenced by factors such as the architecture and materials used, can introduce chaotic elements into the music. Small changes in the positioning of instruments, microphones, or speakers can lead to complex interactions, affecting the overall sound experience.
  4. Technical Challenges: Live music concerts often involve complex technical setups, including sound systems, lighting, and stage effects. Any technical glitch or unexpected issue can introduce chaos into the performance, requiring quick and adaptive responses from the performers and crew.
  5. Complex Systems Interaction: Live music concerts are intricate systems with multiple interacting components. The relationship between the performers, audience, venue, and technical aspects creates a dynamic and unpredictable environment, much like the complex systems studied in chaos theory.

While chaos theory is a scientific concept, its principles can be metaphorically applied to understand the intricate and unpredictable nature of live music concerts. The dynamic interactions between various elements contribute to the unique and ever-changing experience that each concert provides.

SEE: The Science of Chaos Theory, String Theory, and Music

bookmark_borderGravity, Sea Level Rise and Surge

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjess

In general, the coasts that are seeing the largest storm surges are the same areas that are experiencing the fastest rate of sea level rise. The sea level does not rise at the same rate for most coastlines. Some of the conditions that determine the sea level at any given location include: water temperature (thermal expansion), circulation, ocean floor contour, ice melt, ocean dynamics, and Earth’s uneven gravity field.

Idalia Storm Surge 2023
Idalia Storm Surge 2023

The Shape of Things to Come
For the foreseeable future, storm surges will offer a good forecast of future sea level rise. Hurricane Idalia’s storm surge (pictured / 2023), brought a 10-15 storm surge to the northern coast of Florida. In 2022, Hurricane Ida brought a 14-20 foot storm surge to the southern coast of Florida. Ida also made landfall in Southeastern USA. Plaquemines Parish on the east bank of the Mississippi River had an estimated storm surge of at least 14 feet. Grand Isle, Louisiana, which was located just east of the landfall, was struck by 10.2 feet and rendered uninhabitable after the storm.

We know these areas of the United States will see sea levels rise at least 10-15 feet because it has already happened. Although it was only for hours, you wouldn’t want to live there during those hours. Not to mention, the frequency of these extreme weather events is rising exponentially. Thus, our recommendation to evacuate Florida now (i.e. Managed Retreat.) The billions of dollars spent to rebuild after Hurricane Ida will all be for naught. Allowing building will needlessly endanger property and lives. Parts of the world have already seen storm surges of 40 feet. I expect most North American coastlines will see sea levels rise, if only temporarily, by 20-40 feet this century. Within a generation, these areas could be submerged most of the time.

Don’t Be Fooled by Relative Variations
The level of the oceans is rising; however, some climate change deniers may try to claim that sea level is receding. Yes, in some instances certain areas will see a decline in the relative sea level. As ice melt accelerates, gravity and glacial isostatic adjustment will have a greater impact on where the sea level rises the most. Greenland is a good example. Greenland has one of the largest land ice sheets. You might think the sea would rise the fastest closest to the melt. “Greenland is like a bowl with large cracks in its sides.” The giant ice mass has sunk the ground, as well as, added a huge mass on top of it. Much of Greenland’s ice melt is just kind-of hanging out in the bowl. Two things are happening to change that:
1) As the ice mass melts, it exerts less gravitational pull on the surrounding water and the water gets pulled toward the equator.
2) At the same time, the Earth is rebounding under the bowl as the mass moves away. Much will depend on the extent and speed of the rebound. Though we don’t know how fast the rebound will happen, NASA has a satellite program gathering better data by measuring the gravitational pull on the satellite (GRACE Tellus Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment).

At the same time that Greenland is “rising”, many cities are sinking. Alexandria, Amsterdam, Bangkok, Charleston, Miami, New Orleans, New York, Chicago, and Norfolk are all “caving in.” Houston is the 10th-fastest sinking city in the world, and the U.S. city sinking the fastest.

Sidd added, “As the ice melts off Greenland, sea level will rise around Antarctica and drop around Greenland, and as the ice melts in Antarctica, sea will rise around Greenland and drop around Antarctica. In general, sea levels fall where the ice is melting and rise on the other side of the world. There is a small effect on earth rotation and polar direction, but not enough to worry about.”

Measuring Sea Level Rise
So, one of the biggest questions in the future is how do you measure sea level rise? From where the land was pre-industrial, where the land is today, or where the land is tomorrow? In any event, the Earth crossed tipping points which make extreme sea level rise inevitable and irreversible. Planners should plan on it.

Sidd reiterated, “That 270 feet of sea level rise will take a long time. I would be more careful about the violent rain than the ice melt.”

Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now

Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration

Flood Insurance

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Atmospheric Rivers

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Extreme Rainfall–surge Hazard Risk Basics and Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2022)

West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

Greenland Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee (2023)

ALSO SEE:

Real Estate and Flood Insurance Brouse and Mukherjee (1999 to present)
The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)
Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderGreenland Atmospheric Rivers

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by Sidd Mukherjee

Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast.

Atmospheric rivers have been putting serious rainfall melt on Greenland for the last decade, too.

Darker snow surfaces absorb more sunlight and melt quicker. This effect is visible in Greenland. Box et al.,”Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers,” The Cryosphere, v6, pp821 et seq., doi:10.5194/tc-6-821-2012 state: ” Thus, intraseasonal summer albedo variability exceeds 0.50 over parts of the ice sheet where a snow layer ablates by mid-summer, exposing an impurity-rich ice surface …” Prof. Box is now investigating soot from North American wildfires as a factor in the darkening of Greenland.
— from News from the Ice Wars:An Occasional Bulletin

“Furthermore, our investigation of the short- and long-term relationships between moisture transport vents and modeled GrIS surface properties proves that this correspondence between the years of enhanced AR activity and anomalous GrIS mass loss is not a coincidence. Strong AR impacts cause increased melt in all areas of the GrIS and decreased SMB in the ablation zone during summer, and warm seasons with above-average GrIS melt extent are characterized by anomalously strong moisture transport by ARs over Greenland. ARs typically result in SMB gains in the GrIS ablation zone during nonsummer seasons and in the accumulation zone during all seasons. However, the intense summer SMB losses in the ablation zone during years of enhanced moisture transport outweigh the positive AR contributions to SMB in other regions and seasons. The scaling of melt versus snowfall in Figures 9 and 11 shows that the magnitude of mass loss from summer melt in the ablation zone has a much greater upper limit than mass gain from snowfall.”

In this paper see especially Fig. 9.

Then in 2018, Neff publishes again: more on atmospheric rivers causing the full surface melt in greenland in 2012.
— from Atmospheric River Impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet SurfaceMass Balance

“Rainfall at the Greenland ice sheet Summit 14 August 2021, was delivered by an atmospheric river (AR). Extreme surface ablation expanded the all-Greenland bare ice area to near-record-high with snowline climbing up to 788 ± 90 m. Ice sheet wet snow extent reached 46%, a record high for the 15–31 August AMSR data since 2003. Heat-driven firn deflation averaged 0.14 ± 0.05 m at four accumulation area automatic weather stations (AWSs). Energy budget calculations from AWS data indicate that surface heating from rainfall is much smaller than from either the sensible, latent, net-longwave or solar energy fluxes. ”

“Rainfall heat transfer contributed just 2% to the calculated melting at a 2,200 m elevation western ice sheet site (CP1 a.k.a. Crawford Point). Condensation or sensible heat transfer from the warm air mass was a far more powerful heat source. The observed amount of melting delivered by the AR could have happened without rain- fall. Yet, the impacts of rain and meltwater refreeze are considerable provided that percolation delivers the melt below where the heat can be radiated away and that refreeze-at-depth occurs. We found no evidence for the latter condition because the rainfall amount was not extreme and the surface was already melting hours before the rain- fall. Understanding any changes to the frequency and intensity of ARs appears to be a more important research target than the heat content of the liquid precipitation ARs may or may not produce Further, while rainfall that does not percolate and refreeze may not have strong surface thermodynamic impacts, rainfall contribution to the hydraulics of Greenland ice (Doyle et al., 2015) may be more consequential to ablation through ice sheet flow acceleration.”

open access, read all about it. The Watson river discharge described in the paper drains the saddle between north and south domes and is an area that i watch closely for signs of collapse. I suppose this is one.
— from Greenland Ice Sheet Rainfall, Heat and Albedo Feedback Impacts From the Mid-August 2021 Atmospheric River

ALSO SEE:
West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderWest Coast Atmospheric Rivers

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by Daniel Brouse

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture. More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding. In October of 2021 NOAA said, “a convergence of storms brought more than half a foot of rain to parts of the Bay area in addition to strong winds, flash floods, and mud/landslides. They also bring the potential for heavy snow to higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada mountain range.” (Atmospheric River Hits the West Coast)

In December 2022 and January 2023, California experienced nine back-to-back atmospheric rivers; the longest stretch of continuous atmospheric river conditions on record. NOAA went on to report, “Several atmospheric rivers struck in March 2023, bringing heavy rain and snowfall to much of the West. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the statewide snowpack was among the deepest ever recorded for the end of March — 237% of normal.”

In October of 2023, a tropical storm turned into category 5 Hurricane Otis in a record 12-hour intensification. Hurricane expert Kerry Emanual said Otis was supercharged by global warming. Historically, hurricanes’ intensification was driven by ocean surface temperatures. Otis was additionally supercharged by increasing temperatures deeper in the ocean. Hurricane Otis became the strongest on record to hit Mexico’s Pacific coast. NOAA reported, “When Otis first hit, mudslides outside the city in mountainous terrain prevented crews from traveling to the city to provide aid, and according to the Associated Press, the 10,000 troops that were deployed to the area lacked the tools needed to clear mud and downed trees off roads.”

ALSO SEE:
East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

 

bookmark_borderEast Coast Atmospheric Rivers

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by Daniel Brouse
December 10, 2023

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture (water vapor). When more moisture-laden air moves over land it can create atmospheric rivers. In the Northwestern USA, the atmospheric rivers are commonly called the Pineapple Express. The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast. “Actually their frequency is not really increasing. Meteorologists have used the term for decades. It has simply become popular by the media. Just like polar vortex,” said Jeff Boyne National Weather Service meteorologist and climatologist. Indeed, “atmospheric rivers are more frequent on the East Coast than they are on the West Coast,” said Jason Cordeira, associate professor of meteorology at Plymouth State University. “They’re just not as impactful and don’t usually produce as much rainfall.”

What is changing is the research into the types and increasing intensity of East Coast AR events. “Between 1958 and 2012, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of rainfall measured during heavy precipitation events, more than in any other region in the United States. Projections indicate continuing increases in precipitation, especially in winter and spring and in northern parts of the region,” as reported in The US Fourth National Climate Assessment.

Most types of East Coast ARs are increasing in intensity likely due to climate change. The study Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends reports, “The impact of increasing moisture transport could be significant across the northeast corridor from Washington D.C. to Coastal Maine, as it increases the risk of extreme precipitation from landfalling ARs. The results indicate most ARs in the study domain are forced by extratropical cyclones, with lee side low pressure systems and coastal lows along the Atlantic Coast (e.g. nor’easters) responsible for producing the strongest ARs.”

How Fast Are Atmospheric Rivers Gaining Intensity?
Some areas of the world are now warming so fast, it is becoming more difficult to measure the change from “normal” or average. Jeff Boyne of the NWS said, “There are climate normals that are updated every 10 to 15 years, because the planet is warming so fast. The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) regions are warming so fast that those normals are being updated every 5 years.” Overall, how fast is climate change accelerating? Rapidly. “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “September was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” said Zeke Hausfather, at the Berkeley Earth climate data project.”

ALSO SEE:

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderClimate Change and the Carbon Feedback Loop

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by Daniel Brouse

The atmosphere is acting like a blanket… and the earth (land and sea) is acting like a battery. 91% of the energy (as heat) is trapped/stored in the oceans.

Feedback Loops Example

The Albedo feedback loop between the earth and the CO2 in the atmosphere accelerates global warming at an exponential rate. Albedo is the fraction of incoming solar radiation that gets reflected back into space. Carbon plays a double whammy role in feedback loops.

Brown carbon on ice, snow, or permafrost absorbs more heat and releases more carbon and methane into the atmosphere… resulting in more warming… leading to more carbon being released from the earth, etc.

Brown carbon is light-absorbing organic carbon with a very low Albedo. “This class of organic carbon, known for its light brownish color, absorbs strongly in the ultraviolet wavelengths and less significantly going into the visible,” reports the Argonne National Laboratory.

There are several feedback loops between brown carbon, lightning, wildfires, and arctic warming. Brown carbon from wildfires warms the arctic. The warmer arctic absorbs more heat causing more wildfires. In turn, more wildfires cause more brown carbon resulting in a warmer arctic. The cycle keeps reinforcing itself as it repeats.

Studies have found lightning and forest fires are creating a feedback loop. Global warming causes more extreme weather events and conditions for lightning. More lightning sparks a vicious cycle, as trees and soil set ablaze release warming CO2 creating more storms and more lightning. The study Forests at Risk Due to Lightning Fires found a sensitivity of extratropical intact forests to potential increases in lightning fires, which would have far-reaching consequences for terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity.

More wildfires create more CO2 and more brown carbon that result in more global warming that results in more lightning strikes creating more wildfires resulting in more global warming thawing more permafrost  allowing more emissions of CO2 and methane resulting in more warming, creating many more feedback loops.

Feedback loops and tipping points are parts of an equation that determine the rate of acceleration in climate change. Triggering these tipping points results in the CO2 stored in nature to be released without the assistance of humans. Though we do not know how much carbon is stored in nature, it would be reasonable to assume that the temperature could be pushed from 3 degrees to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Humans cannot thrive above a rise of 1.5 degrees. Much of the Earth will be uninhabitable if the temperature rises an additional 6 degrees Celsius. If humans also add 3 degrees Celsius, the temperature and humidity will approach a wet-bulb temperature that will not sustain human life.

When a tipping point topples and knocks over other tipping points, it is called the Domino Effect.