Tag: extreme weather events

bookmark_borderAtmospheric Rivers and Coastal Erosion

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Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere that transport large amounts of water vapor. When these atmospheric rivers make landfall, they can bring heavy rainfall over an extended period, leading to increased runoff and potentially contributing to coastal erosion through several mechanisms:

  1. Intense Rainfall: Atmospheric rivers can bring intense and prolonged rainfall, leading to increased runoff from rivers and streams into the coastal areas. This influx of water can contribute to soil erosion and sediment transport, impacting coastal ecosystems.
  2. Flooding: The heavy rainfall associated with atmospheric rivers can cause inland flooding, leading to an increased discharge of water into coastal regions. This excess water can erode coastal land, especially in areas with vulnerable soils.
  3. Storm Surges: In some cases, atmospheric rivers may coincide with storm systems, leading to storm surges along the coast. Storm surges, combined with high winds and heavy rainfall, can intensify erosion along the shoreline.

The image shows the Ocean City, New Jersey, shore after an atmospheric river coincided with storm surge.

beach erosion in Ocean City, NJ / December 2023
beach erosion in Ocean City, NJ / December 2023

It’s essential to note that the impact of atmospheric rivers on coastal erosion can vary depending on local topography, land use, and other factors. Coastal erosion is a complex process influenced by a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea level rise, human activities, and changes in weather patterns.

Owning a Shore Property and Flood Insurance

Extreme Rainfall–surge Hazard Risk Basics and Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2022)

West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

Greenland Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee (2023)

ALSO SEE:
The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)
Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Atmospheric Rivers

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Extreme Rainfall–surge Hazard Risk Basics and Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2022)

West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

Greenland Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee (2023)

ALSO SEE:

Real Estate and Flood Insurance Brouse and Mukherjee (1999 to present)
The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)
Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderGreenland Atmospheric Rivers

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by Sidd Mukherjee

Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast.

Atmospheric rivers have been putting serious rainfall melt on Greenland for the last decade, too.

Darker snow surfaces absorb more sunlight and melt quicker. This effect is visible in Greenland. Box et al.,”Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers,” The Cryosphere, v6, pp821 et seq., doi:10.5194/tc-6-821-2012 state: ” Thus, intraseasonal summer albedo variability exceeds 0.50 over parts of the ice sheet where a snow layer ablates by mid-summer, exposing an impurity-rich ice surface …” Prof. Box is now investigating soot from North American wildfires as a factor in the darkening of Greenland.
— from News from the Ice Wars:An Occasional Bulletin

“Furthermore, our investigation of the short- and long-term relationships between moisture transport vents and modeled GrIS surface properties proves that this correspondence between the years of enhanced AR activity and anomalous GrIS mass loss is not a coincidence. Strong AR impacts cause increased melt in all areas of the GrIS and decreased SMB in the ablation zone during summer, and warm seasons with above-average GrIS melt extent are characterized by anomalously strong moisture transport by ARs over Greenland. ARs typically result in SMB gains in the GrIS ablation zone during nonsummer seasons and in the accumulation zone during all seasons. However, the intense summer SMB losses in the ablation zone during years of enhanced moisture transport outweigh the positive AR contributions to SMB in other regions and seasons. The scaling of melt versus snowfall in Figures 9 and 11 shows that the magnitude of mass loss from summer melt in the ablation zone has a much greater upper limit than mass gain from snowfall.”

In this paper see especially Fig. 9.

Then in 2018, Neff publishes again: more on atmospheric rivers causing the full surface melt in greenland in 2012.
— from Atmospheric River Impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet SurfaceMass Balance

“Rainfall at the Greenland ice sheet Summit 14 August 2021, was delivered by an atmospheric river (AR). Extreme surface ablation expanded the all-Greenland bare ice area to near-record-high with snowline climbing up to 788 ± 90 m. Ice sheet wet snow extent reached 46%, a record high for the 15–31 August AMSR data since 2003. Heat-driven firn deflation averaged 0.14 ± 0.05 m at four accumulation area automatic weather stations (AWSs). Energy budget calculations from AWS data indicate that surface heating from rainfall is much smaller than from either the sensible, latent, net-longwave or solar energy fluxes. ”

“Rainfall heat transfer contributed just 2% to the calculated melting at a 2,200 m elevation western ice sheet site (CP1 a.k.a. Crawford Point). Condensation or sensible heat transfer from the warm air mass was a far more powerful heat source. The observed amount of melting delivered by the AR could have happened without rain- fall. Yet, the impacts of rain and meltwater refreeze are considerable provided that percolation delivers the melt below where the heat can be radiated away and that refreeze-at-depth occurs. We found no evidence for the latter condition because the rainfall amount was not extreme and the surface was already melting hours before the rain- fall. Understanding any changes to the frequency and intensity of ARs appears to be a more important research target than the heat content of the liquid precipitation ARs may or may not produce Further, while rainfall that does not percolate and refreeze may not have strong surface thermodynamic impacts, rainfall contribution to the hydraulics of Greenland ice (Doyle et al., 2015) may be more consequential to ablation through ice sheet flow acceleration.”

open access, read all about it. The Watson river discharge described in the paper drains the saddle between north and south domes and is an area that i watch closely for signs of collapse. I suppose this is one.
— from Greenland Ice Sheet Rainfall, Heat and Albedo Feedback Impacts From the Mid-August 2021 Atmospheric River

ALSO SEE:
West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderWest Coast Atmospheric Rivers

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by Daniel Brouse

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture. More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding. In October of 2021 NOAA said, “a convergence of storms brought more than half a foot of rain to parts of the Bay area in addition to strong winds, flash floods, and mud/landslides. They also bring the potential for heavy snow to higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada mountain range.” (Atmospheric River Hits the West Coast)

In December 2022 and January 2023, California experienced nine back-to-back atmospheric rivers; the longest stretch of continuous atmospheric river conditions on record. NOAA went on to report, “Several atmospheric rivers struck in March 2023, bringing heavy rain and snowfall to much of the West. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the statewide snowpack was among the deepest ever recorded for the end of March — 237% of normal.”

In October of 2023, a tropical storm turned into category 5 Hurricane Otis in a record 12-hour intensification. Hurricane expert Kerry Emanual said Otis was supercharged by global warming. Historically, hurricanes’ intensification was driven by ocean surface temperatures. Otis was additionally supercharged by increasing temperatures deeper in the ocean. Hurricane Otis became the strongest on record to hit Mexico’s Pacific coast. NOAA reported, “When Otis first hit, mudslides outside the city in mountainous terrain prevented crews from traveling to the city to provide aid, and according to the Associated Press, the 10,000 troops that were deployed to the area lacked the tools needed to clear mud and downed trees off roads.”

ALSO SEE:
East Coast Atmospheric Rivers Brouse (2023)

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

 

bookmark_borderEast Coast Atmospheric Rivers

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by Daniel Brouse
December 10, 2023

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture (water vapor). When more moisture-laden air moves over land it can create atmospheric rivers. In the Northwestern USA, the atmospheric rivers are commonly called the Pineapple Express. The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast. “Actually their frequency is not really increasing. Meteorologists have used the term for decades. It has simply become popular by the media. Just like polar vortex,” said Jeff Boyne National Weather Service meteorologist and climatologist. Indeed, “atmospheric rivers are more frequent on the East Coast than they are on the West Coast,” said Jason Cordeira, associate professor of meteorology at Plymouth State University. “They’re just not as impactful and don’t usually produce as much rainfall.”

What is changing is the research into the types and increasing intensity of East Coast AR events. “Between 1958 and 2012, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of rainfall measured during heavy precipitation events, more than in any other region in the United States. Projections indicate continuing increases in precipitation, especially in winter and spring and in northern parts of the region,” as reported in The US Fourth National Climate Assessment.

Most types of East Coast ARs are increasing in intensity likely due to climate change. The study Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends reports, “The impact of increasing moisture transport could be significant across the northeast corridor from Washington D.C. to Coastal Maine, as it increases the risk of extreme precipitation from landfalling ARs. The results indicate most ARs in the study domain are forced by extratropical cyclones, with lee side low pressure systems and coastal lows along the Atlantic Coast (e.g. nor’easters) responsible for producing the strongest ARs.”

How Fast Are Atmospheric Rivers Gaining Intensity?
Some areas of the world are now warming so fast, it is becoming more difficult to measure the change from “normal” or average. Jeff Boyne of the NWS said, “There are climate normals that are updated every 10 to 15 years, because the planet is warming so fast. The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) regions are warming so fast that those normals are being updated every 5 years.” Overall, how fast is climate change accelerating? Rapidly. “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “September was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” said Zeke Hausfather, at the Berkeley Earth climate data project.”

ALSO SEE:

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderState of the Cryosphere 2023

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Dr. Sidd Mukherjee said, “Latest frightening news” — State of the Cryosphere Report-2023.

This has been a year of climate disasters and ice loss. A glacial lake outburst flood devastated Sikkim in India. Swiss glaciers lost 10% of their remaining ice over just two years. Sea ice around Antarctica hit all-time-low summer and winter records. Unprecedented fires raged across Canadian permafrost. Parts of the Arctic and North Atlantic saw water temperatures 4 – 6°C higher than normal. It rained far inland on Antarctica, and Greenland saw its second-highest surface melt ever.

Our message — the message of the Cryosphere – is that this insanity cannot and must not continue.

The Cryosphere – Earth’s ice sheets, sea ice, permafrost, polar oceans, glaciers and snow – is ground zero for climate change. This is because of the simple physical reality of the melting point of ice; or in the case of our rapidly acidifying polar oceans, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere absorbed and turned to carbonic acid.

The warming impact of CO2, around 80% from fossil fuel use, already has led to steep glacier and ice sheet loss causing global sea-level rise; reduction of water resources from snowpack; growing CO2 and methane emissions from thawing permafrost; dramatic reduction of sea ice, now alarmingly low in both polar oceans; and growing evidence of stress on keystone polar marine species, such as krill, salmon and cod, from polar ocean acidification, warming and freshening. Enough. It is time to carve a line in the snow: because of what we have learned about the Cryosphere since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, 1.5°C is not merely preferable to 2°C. It is the only option.

Otherwise, world leaders are de facto deciding to burden humanity for centuries to millennia by displacing hundreds of millions of people from flooding coastal settlements; depriving societies of life-giving freshwater resources, disrupting delicately-balanced polar ocean and mountain ecosystems; and forcing future generations to offset long-term permafrost emissions.

This continued rise in CO2 is unacceptable.

The melting point of ice pays no attention to rhetoric, only to our actions.

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mukherjee and Brouse (2022 and 2023)

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now Mukherjee and Brouse (2023)

Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderThe Domino Effect / Snowball Effect

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by Brouse and Mukherjee

Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops.

Tipping Points

Push a glass toward the edge of a table and eventually it will fall off on its own. No matter how slowly or meticulously you push… no matter how you weight or fill the glass, it will reach a tipping point and fall off before being pushed completely off the table. No matter whether you believe the glass is half-empty or half-full, when the tipping point is reached it will plummet out-of-control to its end. This is science not fate, faith, nor belief. Human induced climate change has resulted in environmental tipping points being breached.

Tipping points, when crossed, trigger self-sustaining feedback loops that are no longer dependent on human activity. Similar to when a domino topples over hitting two more dominoes that in turn fall hitting more dominoes. Thus, the name The Domino Effect. It can also be visualized as The Snowball Effect. A tipping point is like a snowball rolling down a hill growing in mass and velocity (momentum). When a tipping point is crossed, it results in cumulative and reinforced global warming.

A look at five (5) of the multiple tipping points that show the proverbial snowball is already rolling. The first dominoes have fallen and will continue to knock down more tiles with each escalating step.

  • Mountain Glacier Loss
  • Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse
  • Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse
  • Collapse of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)
  • Amazon Rainforest Dieback

Crossing even a single tipping point is alarming. For instance, crossing the tipping point for ‘mountain glacier loss‘ has immediate consequences: millions of people in Europe will be impacted by the lack of fresh water. Billions of people that live along coasts will be impacted by the saline infiltration and eventually by the submerging of their property. In September of 2022, UNESCO reported accelerated melting of glaciers in World Heritage sites, with glaciers in a third of sites set to disappear by 2050. In September of 2023, the GLAMOS glacier monitoring center found 10% of Swiss glaciers had disappeared in the last 2 years. They do not expect any Swiss glaciers will be left by 2050 no matter what actions are taken. If extreme measures are taken, they anticipate we may be able to save some polar glaciers.

This in and of itself should be alarming; however, it gets worse. Tipping points are parts of feedback loop systems. The ice-albedo feedback loop is an expression of the ability of surfaces to reflect sunlight (heat from the sun). Any loss of ice over a darker surface means the surface will absorb more heat and reflect less heat. This process makes the Earth warmer causing more loss of ice, which in turn causes more warming of the Earth. So, yes, the mountain ice tipping point is quite alarming for both its immediate impact as well as its self-sustaining growth to global warming; but wait, it gets more alarming. The increasing temperatures due to crossing a tipping point cause other tipping points to be toppled (The Domino Effect).

Long run sea level rise New Jersey Coast

By the Autumn of 2023, it had become evident the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will completely melt. The process is irreversible and inevitable. The cool water from the melting ice at the poles is being drawn toward the center of the Earth and getting warmed to record high temperatures. The warm, moist air is circulating and moving over land. These changes in climate systems will cause other areas to experience unprecedented drought. We expect sea level rise will total about 270 feet over the next several millennia. It is episodic, and in the fast bits it can go up 3 feet every twenty years for five hundred years. The melting Arctic and Antarctic have multiple feedback loops including: enhanced oceanic heating and ice-albedo, Planck feedback, lapse-rate feedback, and cloud feedback.

The tipping point for the collapse of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) was thought to be centuries away, at the earliest. In July of 2023, the study Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was published in the journal Nature Communications. “Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century (2025-2095) under the current scenario of future emissions.” The collapse is likely to cause faster sea level rise on the east coast of the US, more severe storms in Europe, and increasing drought in the Sahel in Africa. “From the study of past climate, we know changes in the AMOC have been some of the most abrupt and impactful events in the history of climate,” said Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and world leading oceanographer. During the last Ice Age, winter temperatures changed by up to 10C within three years in some places. “We are dealing with a system that in some aspects is highly non-linear, so fiddling with it is very dangerous, because you may well trigger some surprises,” he said. “I wish I knew where this critical tipping point is, but that is unfortunately just what we don’t know. We should avoid disrupting the AMOC at all costs. It is one more reason why we should stop global warming as soon as possible.” A feedback loop created by the AMOC tipping point would cause a disruption of weather systems and circulation. The result would be the loss of naturally occurring carbon sinks. One scenario is desertification of the Amazon rainforest. In 2023, the Amazon River and the Rio Negro set record low levels.

The tipping point / feedback loop problem is very complex (chaos theory) and exponentially alarming. Yet another tipping point appears to have been triggered before 2024 — Amazon Rainforest Dieback. The Amazon is often referred to as ‘the lungs of our planet.’ Not only does the Amazon suck in huge quantities of CO2 and breath out O2, but the Amazon soils also store huge amounts of CO2. The desertification of the Amazon would result in a release of the carbon as the soils disappeared.

1) part of July was spent at record temperatures +3C
2) the collapse of the Amazon rainforest is likely to happen between +2 – 4C. The collapse of the Amazon is expected to occur because of changing weather patterns and circulation that result in drought.
3) Brazil set up a task force for “unprecedented drought in the Amazon”

Low river levels and hotter waters have killed masses of fish seen floating on river surfaces, contaminating the drinking water, Environment Minister Marina Silva said. “We have a very worrying situation. This record drought has disrupted river transport routes (dropping 30 cm / day) threatening food and water shortages, and a large fish mortality is already beginning.” This was the effect of a periodic El Nino mixing with changes in weather patterns brought by global warming. “We are seeing a collision of two phenomena, one natural which is El Nino and the other a phenomenon produced by humans, which is the change in the Earth’s temperature.” Worsened by climate change, this combination has caused drought not seen before in the Amazon and “is incomparably stronger and could happen more frequently.”

The average temperature for Brazil had been above the historical average from July through October of 2023. Rio de Janeiro recorded 42.5C on November 12, 2023 (a record for November) and high humidity on the 14th meant that it felt like 58.5C, municipal authorities said. Deadly humid heat is the greatest short term climate change risk to human health. On November 17, “a young Brazilian fan of US singer Taylor Swift died in Rio de Janeiro after falling ill inside the sweltering stadium where the superstar’s concert was held, amid a record-breaking heatwave across large swathes of Brazil,” as reported by ABC. “The show took place on the same day that Rio recorded its highest-ever heat index reading, which combines temperature and humidity, at 59.3 degrees Celsius (139 degrees Fahrenheit).”

Conclusion
Feedback loops and tipping points are parts of an equation that determine the rate of acceleration in climate change. Triggering these tipping points results in the CO2 stored in nature to be released without the assistance of humans. Though we do not know how much carbon is stored in nature, it would be reasonable to assume that the temperature could be pushed from 3 degrees to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Humans cannot thrive above a rise of 1.5 degrees. Much of the Earth will be uninhabitable if the temperature rises an additional 6 degrees Celsius. If humans also add 3 degrees Celsius, the temperature and humidity will approach a wet-bulb temperature that will not sustain human life.

For the first time in human history, global warming is going to continue no matter what humans do. Even if humans stopped their greenhouse gas emissions today, humans have invoked nature’s greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, the sooner humans stop their emissions, the better. In addition, humans must adapt their habitat to remove, reduce, and hinder nature’s greenhouse gas emissions.

What Can I Do?
There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

 

bookmark_borderCalifornia Homeowners Insurance Consider Climate Change Prices

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California use to only allow a max of 7% increase a year on homeowners insurance… and only base premiums on past payouts on a property. Not anymore.

“California will let insurance companies consider climate change when setting their prices, the state’s chief regulator announced Thursday, a move aimed at preventing insurers from fleeing the state over fears of massive losses from wildfires and other natural disasters. The rule change could mean higher rates for homeowners who are already seeing dramatic increases. Eight insurance companies doing business in California have requested rate increases of at least 20% or higher this year, according to the California Department of Insurance,” AP news reported.

“Modernizing our insurance market is not going to be easy or happen overnight. We are in really unchartered territory and we must make difficult choices when the world is changing rapidly.” California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara said.

“Insurers have advanced a very powerful argument that the past is not as good a predictor of the future as it used to be,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders. “I think the (Insurance) department did what it needed to do to try to restore a viable market. We don’t have a viable market right now in this state in a lot of areas.”

Florida and Louisiana already have a homeowners insurance crisis with companies fleeing the states. The 9th National Risk Assessment for Homeowners Insurance found 1/4 of all homes in the nation are underpriced for climate risk insurance.

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderClimate Change: Insurance Risk

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The 9th National Risk Assessment for Homeowners Insurance found climate risks place 39 million U.S. homes at risk of losing their insurance. “Sound pricing is going to make it unaffordable to live in certain places as climate impacts emerge.”

“There’s this climate insurance bubble out there,” said Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street and a contributor to the report. “And you can quantify it.”

“There’s no education to the public of what’s going on and where the risk is,” said Porter, explaining that most insurance models are proprietary. Even the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) doesn’t make flood insurance pricing available to the public. Homeowners must obtain coverage through a private insurance broker for a quote.

Wildfires are the fastest growing natural disaster risk. According to the report, “It’s not just wildfires – pressure on flood and wind insurance is increasing, too.”

Porter went on to say, “You don’t want someone to live in a place that always burns. They don”t belong there. We’re subsidizing people to live in harm’s way. Large numbers of people will need to be relocated away from areas that will be uninsurable. There is a reckoning on the horizon and it’s not pretty.”

Flow Speeds

The burning of fossil fuels and other human released emissions have impacted momentum’s impact. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Warmer air allows for the creation of more massive raindrops. Warmer ocean temperatures create stronger hurricanes. Hail and tornadoes form in strong thunderstorm clouds with intense updrafts, high liquid-water content, and large water droplets.

Sidd added: It’s worse than that. Wind and water flow forces scale as the square of velocity, so as flow speeds increase (say due to more intense heating or heavier rain) the damage scales as the square of the velocity.

So a twenty mile an hour wind exerts four times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. And a forty mile an hour wind exerts sixteen times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. A wind of fifty miles an hour exerts twenty five times and a wind of sixty miles an hour exerts thirty six times as much force as one of ten miles an hour. Then you have the density term. Water is about eight hundred times denser than air, So the force exerted by a ten mile an hour flow of water is eight hundred times that of a ten mile an hour wind. So as flow velocities go up due to climate change, force and damage scale as square of the velocities. What is not clear is how much these velocities increase with climate change. But in a sense we are seeing this already as, for example, flood and sewage systems succumb and hillsides fall down, and so on.

Climate change’s influence on wind and water flow forces caused more severe damage and deaths. The Maui wildfire of August 2023 is an example. What would have been a fairly routine wildfire was fanned out-of-control by hurricane force winds. One headline read, “Maui fires: Hawaii blazes fanned by Hurricane Dora”. Another headline read, “Hawaii wildfires kill as ‘apocalypse’ hits Maui island”. The New York Times reported, “Gov. Josh Green of Hawaii said on Thursday that the devastating wildfires that swept through western Maui and killed at least 55 people, and possibly many more, were ‘likely the largest natural disaster in Hawaii state history.'”

Both wind and water flow forces contributed to the devastation. Hurricane Dora was at least 500 miles from Hawaii yet the wind forces impacted the fire in Maui. The winds were so strong that before the fire reached Lahaina extremely hot air blew over the town. The streets were so hot they burnt people’s feet trying to flee. The surface of everything became hot. Even after people jumped into the ocean, they said the debris in the water was too hot to float on. Almost all the boats in the harbor burned.

The blast of hot air over Lahaina created the conditions for a flashpoint. A flashpoint is the temperature at which a particular organic compound gives off sufficient vapor to ignite in air. The entire town ignited so quickly that warning sirens could not be activated and people did not have time to escape.

In an unexpected twist, water flow forces also contributed to the chaos. How could water flow add to the fire emergency conditions? When people fled the heat and fire, they jumped into the sea. ABC news reported: Shawn Dougherty, of Lahaina, was among the hundreds of residents forced to flee the resort city when the wildfire began engulfing their homes.

Like others, Dougherty said his only means of survival was to jump into the ocean with his girlfriend, but while some found safety in nearby jetties, the rocks and coral tore up Dougherty’s body.

“At one point, it seemed like I might drown,” he told ABC News. “{I’m a good swimmer, but the water was just really rough because of the wind and the turbulence.”

Norway Floods 2023

Also in August of 2023, climate change’s influence on water flow forces caused more severe damage and deaths. AccuWeather reported, “Dam bursts open as deadly flooding washes away homes in Norway. Torrents of water gushed through multiple towns across Norway and landslides cascaded down mountainsides after a deluge drenched Norway.”

Summary

By increasing the energy in the system, humans have increased flow volumes, masses and velocities leading to increased damage (and deaths.)

Newton’s second law: F = m * a
F = force
m = mass of an object
a = acceleration

Acceleration Formula

ALSO SEE
Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration
By 2020, there was enough data to see the “doubling period” of some anthropogenic climate affects had gone from 100 years to 10 years. For instance the rate of sea level rise has gone from about 1.5 millimeters per year to over 3 millimeters. We expect to see the doubling period to continue to shrink raising the possibility of sea levels rising a foot/year by 2050.

Tipping points and feedback loops are parts of an equation that determine the rate of acceleration in climate change.

Climate Change: The End of Times

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderInsurance, and the Lack Thereof

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The Washington Post reported, “Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow“.

“Allstate, American Family, Nationwide, Erie Insurance Group and Berkshire Hathaway — have told regulators that extreme weather patterns caused by climate change have led them to stop writing coverages in some regions, exclude protections from various weather events and raise monthly premiums and deductibles.”

“they will cut out damage caused by hurricanes, wind and hail from policies underwriting property along coastlines and in wildfire country”

“places once considered safe from natural catastrophes could lose crucial insurance protections while their natural disaster exposure expands or intensifies ”

“Allstate said its climate risk mitigation strategy would include “limiting new [auto and property] business … in areas most exposed to hurricanes” and “implementing tropical cyclone and/or wind/hail deductibles or exclusions where appropriate.””

“Nationwide said it no longer underwrites coverage for “properties within a certain distance to the coastline” because of hurricane potential.”

“There’s no place to hide from these severe natural disasters”

“a policy in a region afflicted by hurricanes may exclude coverage for wind or hail damage, or in wildfire country, a policy without fire and smoke protection.”

“Activity has been observed in recent years that has differed from historical norms or modeled expectations.”

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.