extreme weather events – Page 5

Violent Rain: Helene Update

Posted on 2024/09/302024/10/01 by admin

By Daniel Brouse
September 30, 2024

If you’re wondering why rain-related severe weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, it’s due to climate change. Rising temperatures increase the amount of humidity in the atmosphere, as warmer air holds more moisture. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation shows that for every 1°C (1.8°F) increase in temperature, the air can hold about 7% more water vapor.

Many areas in the U.S. are experiencing average temperature increases of up to 10°C, extending over more weeks during both spring and fall. This increase allows the atmosphere to hold about 70% more water vapor, leading to significantly more rainfall. Additionally, raindrops are becoming larger and falling faster, which increases their momentum. Using the formula (momentum = mass × velocity), larger and faster raindrops carry more energy.

Moreover, the number of raindrops is also increasing. A higher concentration of raindrops in a given time and area further boosts momentum. For example, if raindrops, each with mass and velocity , hit a surface area per second, the total momentum impacting the surface is per second. This contributes to increased force and damage during rainstorms.

The end result is an increase not only in the frequency and intensity of storms but also in the momentum of falling rain, which intensifies their impact.

Violent Rain
What turns these severe weather events into ‘violent rain events’ is the application of the drag equation and flow dynamics.

Mass and velocity are just part of the equation; density also plays a key role. The combination of these variables increases the intensity of flow forces. Wind and water forces scale with the square of velocity, meaning that as flow speeds increase — due to more intense heating or heavier rainfall — the damage scales accordingly. According to drag physics, force is proportional to density times the square of velocity.

For example, a 20-mile-an-hour wind exerts four times the force of a 10-mile-an-hour wind, while a 40-mile-an-hour wind exerts 16 times the force of a 10-mile-an-hour wind. At 50 miles an hour, the force is 25 times greater, and at 60 miles an hour, it’s 36 times greater than at 10 miles an hour. Now, add the density factor: water is about 800 times denser than air, so a 10-mile-an-hour water flow exerts 800 times the force of a 10-mile-an-hour wind.

As flow velocities increase due to climate change, the forces — and thus the damage — scale with the square of the velocities. While we may not know precisely how much velocities will rise with climate change, we’re already seeing the effects: overwhelmed flood and sewage systems, collapsing hillsides, and more.

About the Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Understanding Straight-Line Winds and Climate Change

Posted on 2024/05/182024/05/18 by admin

By Daniel Brouse
May 18, 2024

Weather Like the Deadly Houston Windstorm Is Being Fueled in Part by Climate Change

Scientists have detected an increase since the 1980s in what are known as straight-line winds, and climate change is playing a significant role. These winds, which are often associated with severe thunderstorms, can reach speeds exceeding 100 mph and cause damage similar to that of a tornado, but they move along a straight path.

Understanding Straight-Line Winds

Straight-line winds, also known as derechos when they cover a particularly large area, are powerful, sustained winds that originate from downdrafts in thunderstorms. Unlike the rotating winds of a tornado, straight-line winds blow in a single direction, hence their name. These winds can flatten trees, knock down power lines, and cause extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure.

The Role of Climate Change

Recent studies indicate that climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of these wind events. The following factors explain how climate change is influencing straight-line winds:

Increased Atmospheric Instability: As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere becomes more unstable. Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to more intense thunderstorms, which are a primary source of straight-line winds. The increased energy in the atmosphere enhances the formation of severe weather systems capable of producing strong downdrafts.
Enhanced Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): CAPE is a measure of the energy available for convection, which is a key process in the formation of thunderstorms. Higher CAPE values are associated with more vigorous updrafts and downdrafts, resulting in stronger winds. Climate change is leading to higher CAPE values in many regions, contributing to more powerful straight-line winds.
Changing Wind Patterns: Climate change is altering global wind patterns, which can influence the development and movement of severe weather systems. These changes can result in more frequent and intense straight-line wind events, particularly in areas that are becoming more prone to severe thunderstorms.

The Impact of Straight-Line Winds

The deadly Houston windstorm is a stark reminder of the destructive power of straight-line winds. The storm left a trail of devastation, with thousands of residents losing power and homes being damaged or destroyed. The aftermath of such storms can be particularly dangerous during extreme weather events like heatwaves, which are also becoming more common due to climate change.

Conclusion

As the climate continues to change, the occurrence of extreme weather events like straight-line winds is expected to increase. This poses significant challenges for communities, infrastructure, and emergency response systems. Understanding the role of climate change in these events is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate their impact and enhance resilience against future storms. Scientists and policymakers must work together to address the root causes of climate change and implement measures to protect vulnerable populations from the growing threat of severe weather.

What Can I Do?
Our climate model uses chaos theory in an attempt to adequately account for humans and forecasts a global average temperature increase of 9℃ above pre-industrial levels. Everybody has the responsibility not to pollute. There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Kenya’s Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather

Posted on 2024/05/03 by admin

By Daniel Brouse

Kenya’s first-ever cyclone, Cyclone Kenneth, made landfall in April 2019, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to parts of eastern Africa, including Kenya. While Kenya is not typically in the path of cyclones, the occurrence of Cyclone Kenneth was attributed to changing climate patterns in the Indian Ocean, which allowed the cyclone to form further south than usual.

Cyclone Kenneth highlighted the increasing vulnerability of African countries to extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones, due to climate change. Rising sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, fueled by global warming, provide favorable conditions for cyclone formation and intensification. As a result, countries like Kenya may face heightened risks of cyclones and associated hazards, including heavy rainfall, flooding, and storm surges.

In addition to Cyclone Kenneth, Kenya experienced several historic floods in the past year, further underscoring the country’s susceptibility to climate-related disasters. These floods were attributed to various factors, including prolonged and intense rainfall, poor land management practices, deforestation, and inadequate infrastructure for flood control and drainage.

Climate change exacerbates the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including floods, by altering rainfall patterns, increasing the intensity of storms, and raising sea levels. In Kenya, as in many other parts of the world, climate change is contributing to more frequent and intense rainfall events, leading to an increased risk of flooding and associated impacts on communities, infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Addressing the impacts of climate change in Kenya requires a comprehensive approach that includes efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to changing climate conditions, improve disaster preparedness and response capabilities, and enhance resilience at the local, national, and regional levels. International cooperation and support are also essential to assist vulnerable countries like Kenya in addressing the challenges posed by climate change and building a sustainable future for all.

In 2024, the toll of flood-related incidents in Kenya has been devastating, with approximately 210 lives lost. Government data reveals that over 165,000 individuals have been displaced from their homes, and nearly 100 people are reported missing. The second ever hurricane, Hidaya, is expected to make landfall by May 4, 2024.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Extreme Weather and Violent Rain

Posted on 2024/04/04 by admin

by Daniel Brouse

Between April 1 and 4, Southeastern Pennsylvania experienced another severe weather event attributed to atmospheric rivers and strong winds. Rainfall accumulation exceeded 3 inches, accompanied by wind gusts ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Tragically, two individuals lost their lives in unrelated incidents, one in Montgomery County and the other in Delaware County, when trees collapsed onto their vehicles.

Part of the The Philadelphia Violent Rain Experiment
The Greater Philadelphia Area serves as our focal point for studying non-coastal violent rain events. Although situated 78 miles from the nearest coast, Philadelphia has experienced a surge in violent rainstorms since 2021, with each episode yielding more precipitation than the typical monthly average. In addition to enduring Nor’easters and tropical storms from the Southeast, Philadelphia is increasingly subjected to deluges originating from the Gulf of Mexico.

Vine Street Expressway Flooded

Hurricane Ida in the summer of 2021 is a good example. Because of the 85 degrees Fahrenheit Gulf of Mexico ocean temperature, Ida rapidly gained strength right before it made landfall jumping from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm. The warm air allowed more moisture to be carried as rain. The storm was so large that it was able to pick up more moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. After destroying parts of Florida, the ocean moisture was carried inland and dumped over places like Pennsylvania and New York. Ida caused record flood damage in parts of Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida destroyed or damaged hundreds of homes in Southeastern Pennsylvania and caused more than $100 million in public infrastructure damage across the state.” There were more deaths in the Northeastern USA than where the storm made landfall in Louisiana. The New York Times reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused flash flooding and a number of deaths and disrupted transit across parts of New York and New Jersey. The storm killed at least 43 people in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut and left more than 150,000 homes without power.” Ida’s Philadelphia area destruction included 5 deaths, 7 tornadoes, record flooding, hundreds of water rescues, and “one incredibly soggy mess.” The violent rain in Philadelphia was so extreme that the main road across the city from the Delaware River to the Schuylkill River, the Vine Street Expressway, was turned into a canal. “You could’ve swam from 22nd Street to about 15th Street,” said Justin Galbreath, a district maintenance manager at the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. As climate change intensifies, the frequency of Vine Street becoming a river will likely increase until such time as it becomes permanent.

The train derailment in Plymouth Meeting (July 17, 2023), the eleven vehicles swept away, and the seven people drowned by flood waters in Washington Crossing (July 15, 2023) were caused by a deluge of rain and flash flooding. “In my 44 years, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Upper Makefield Fire Chief Tim Brewer said. “When the water came up, it came up very swiftly. We do not think that anybody drove into it, that they were actively on that road when it happened.” CBS news reported, “Over 6 inches of rain in an hour caused the flash flooding according to Brewer. The fire department was dispatched in that area for a lightning strike and just by happenstance they found 11 cars. Eight people were rescued from the cars and two from the creek.” In July and December of 2023, extreme rainfall resulted in sinkholes being exposed in the carbonate rock under Route 202 in nearby King of Prussia, PA.

In September of 2023, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia soaked the entire Philadelphia region with episodic downpours on Saturday, the first day of fall, conspiring to incite 60-mph wind gusts at the Shore and high-tide flooding that closed numerous roads in beach and back-bay towns.” There were up to 8 inches of rain recorded throughout the Philadelphia region over the three day event.

The winter of 2023 saw near weekly atmospheric river flash flooding events. On January 9, the Greater Philadelphia Region incurred an historic winter tropical violent rain event. CBS news reported, “If it feels like it’s been an abnormally rainy few weeks, you’re right. Normal rainfall totals between Dec. 1 and Jan. 9 amount to about 4.78 inches. Between December 2023 and Tuesday, we’d already recorded more than 9 inches of rain, an amount normally recorded in December, January and February combined.” The January 9 storm brought over 4 inches of rain to many areas. The Delaware River peaked at its highest level ever. There were hurricane strength winds with wind gusts over 70mph.

On March 23, 2024, Philadelphia witnessed its wettest March day on record. The rain gauge at the airport measured over 3 inches of rainfall, with parts of New Castle County, Delaware, also receiving over 3 inches. Some areas in Gloucester County and Camden County, New Jersey, recorded rainfall exceeding 4 inches. The precipitation observed on that day was roughly equivalent to the typical rainfall for the entire month. A young girl was swept away by the rapidly rising and swift moving waters of the Chester Creek in Delaware County, PA.

On the same day, an atmospheric river event brought heavy rains to Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro state, resulting in at least nine fatalities, with Petropolis being the hardest hit. A staggering 270 mm (11 inches) of rain fell within 24 hours, significantly impacting the region and leading to numerous incidents, including landslides and house collapses.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Climate Change and Homeowners’ Insurance

Posted on 2024/03/222024/03/22 by admin

by Daniel Brouse

A significant factor contributing to both increased costs and decreased availability of homeowners insurance is climate change. The surge in insurance costs is primarily driven by the unprecedented number of climate-related disasters. States like California, Louisiana, and Florida now heavily rely on government aid to manage the financial burdens associated with residential property insurance.

In 2023, the United States faced 28 separate weather and climate disasters, each costing at least 1 billion dollars, marking it as the year with the highest number of billion-dollar disasters on record. Single extreme weather events are also becoming more costly. Hurricane Ida alone caused an estimated $75 billion in damages, making it the costliest disaster of 2021. Insurers paid out a staggering $99 billion in claims related to natural disasters in 2022, leading to a substantial 21 percent increase in premiums from May 2022 to May 2023.

The rising premiums aren’t just a matter of cost; it’s also becoming increasingly difficult to find coverage, especially in disaster-prone areas. Major insurers are reconsidering where they underwrite policies, with some, like State Farm General Insurance Company, halting the acceptance of new applications for property insurance due to rapidly growing catastrophe exposure.

Government officials have acknowledged the link between the availability of homeowners insurance and climate change. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have both highlighted the decline in insurance affordability and availability due to more frequent and severe natural disasters.

Even regions traditionally less prone to disasters are experiencing insurance challenges. The reinsurance market, influenced by events worldwide, impacts rates offered by insurers, subsequently increasing costs for homeowners.

In states like Louisiana, hurricanes such as Laura and Ida have severely impacted the insurance market, reminiscent of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Flood insurance, overseen by FEMA, is facing significant challenges, with premiums expected to double for many policyholders under FEMA’s new rating system.

FEMA is actively seeking recommendations to modify flood risk assessment procedures to better reflect the evolving climate challenges. Their efforts aim to equip communities with better tools to handle the increasing risks associated with climate change.

Insurance Cost and Availability

Climate change is profoundly impacting homeowners’ and flood insurance costs and availability in several ways:

Increased Frequency and Severity of Natural Disasters: Climate change is leading to more frequent and severe weather events such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and storms. These events result in higher insurance payouts due to increased property damage, leading insurance companies to raise premiums to cover their costs.
Rising Sea Levels: As sea levels rise due to climate change, coastal areas become more prone to flooding and storm surges. This increased risk of flood damage prompts insurance companies to adjust their pricing models, often resulting in higher premiums for properties in flood-prone zones.
Changing Risk Assessment: Insurers are reassessing risk models to account for the changing climate conditions. Areas once considered low-risk may now be reclassified as high-risk due to increased vulnerability to weather-related events. As a result, homeowners in these areas may face higher insurance premiums or even difficulty obtaining coverage.
Reduced Availability of Coverage: In regions heavily impacted by climate change-induced disasters, insurance companies may reduce or withdraw coverage altogether. This can leave homeowners in high-risk areas struggling to find affordable insurance options, particularly for flood insurance.
Government Intervention: Government-backed flood insurance programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) in the United States, face financial strain due to increased claims resulting from climate-related disasters. This may lead to reforms in insurance programs, such as adjustments to premium rates or eligibility criteria, impacting homeowners’ access to affordable coverage.

Overall, climate change is exacerbating the risks and costs associated with homeowners’ and flood insurance, posing significant challenges for individuals and communities vulnerable to its effects.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

Flood Insurance

Climate Change, Inflation, and You

Posted on 2024/03/122024/03/15 by admin

Currently, a major contributor to inflation is the surge in homeowners’ insurance costs, propelled by the unprecedented number of climate disasters in 2023. California, Louisiana, and Florida are now dependent on government assistance to manage the financial burden of residential property insurance.

Flood insurance will become expensive and difficult to obtain.

NOAA: A historic year of U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters

In 2023, the U.S. experienced 28 separate weather and climate disasters costing at least 1 billion dollars. That number puts 2023 into first place for the highest number of billion-dollar disasters in a calendar year and included:

1 winter storm/cold wave event (across the northeast U.S. in early-February).
1 wildfire event (firestorm destroying town of Lahaina on Maui Island of Hawaii).
1 drought and heat wave event (focused across the central and southern U.S.).
4 flooding events (in California, Florida, and across the eastern and northeastern U.S.).
2 tornado outbreaks (across the central and eastern U.S.).
2 tropical cyclones (Idalia in Florida and Typhoon Mawar in Guam).
17 severe weather/hail events (across many parts of the country).

2023 was also deadly, causing at least 492 direct or indirect fatalities — the 8^thÂ most disaster-related fatalities for the contiguous U.S. since 1980.

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

What Can I Do?
There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. Be a butterfly and affect the world. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.

Here is a list of additional actions you can take.

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change?

Climate Change Today

Posted on 2024/03/122024/03/12 by admin

By Daniel Brouse
March 23, 2024

We are aware that the average temperature increased by 1.2°C by 2022. Subsequently, the annual average temperature exceeded 1.5°C for the first time in January 2024. There is a substantial likelihood that if humans persist in emitting greenhouse gases at the current rate, the temperature will rise by 4°C within this century. Furthermore, in 2023, seven tipping points were surpassed, triggering a chain reaction of feedback loops. While the precise amounts of carbon and methane stored in nature remain uncertain, a conservative estimate suggests a temperature rise of 3-6 degrees is inevitable. This century is marked by an unavoidable and irreversible increase in sea levels. However, if we alter our behaviors, we could potentially cap the increase at 4-5°C and extend the timeline to the year 2300. Although we lack exact figures for the speed and severity, we possess a comprehensive model with numerous known variables. In essence, while acknowledging that challenges lie ahead, there is an opportunity for mitigation through substantial changes in our practices.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Coral Reefs’ Tipping Point

Posted on 2024/02/142024/02/14 by admin

by Daniel Brouse
February 14, 2024

Coral reefs confront unprecedented challenges arising from various stressors, many of which are directly tied to human activities. Some of these stressors possess critical tipping points, surpassing which can lead to the collapse of coral ecosystems. According to the European Geosciences Union’s statement on January 2, 2024, specific tipping points include a temperature increase of 1.2℃ above pre-industrial levels and atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeding 350 parts per million. Disturbingly, as of February 2024, the Earth’s yearly average temperature has already risen to +1.5℃, underscoring the urgency of addressing climate-related threats to coral reefs.

Climate change is having significant and detrimental effects on coral reefs around the world. Some of the key impacts include:

Coral Bleaching:
- One of the most immediate and visible impacts of climate change on coral reefs is coral bleaching. Elevated sea temperatures cause corals to expel the symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) living within their tissues. Without these algae, corals lose their vibrant colors and become more susceptible to stress, disease, and death. While corals can recover from mild bleaching events, severe or prolonged bleaching can lead to widespread coral mortality.
Ocean Acidification:
- Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere not only contribute to global warming but also lead to ocean acidification. The absorption of excess CO2 by the oceans results in a decrease in pH, making the water more acidic. This acidification can weaken coral skeletons and hinder the ability of corals to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures.
Sea Level Rise:
- Rising global temperatures contribute to the melting of polar ice caps and glaciers, causing sea levels to rise. Elevated sea levels can lead to increased stress on coral reefs, especially those located in shallow waters. This can result in reduced sunlight reaching the corals and increased sedimentation, impacting their growth and survival.
Extreme Weather Events:
- Climate change is linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and cyclones. These events can physically damage coral reefs by causing coral breakage, dislodgment, and destruction of the reef structure. The recovery time for damaged reefs is often extended, making them more vulnerable to subsequent disturbances.
Changes in Ocean Circulation:
- Climate change can alter ocean currents and circulation patterns. Changes in water flow can affect the distribution of nutrients and impact the resilience of coral reefs. Some regions may experience altered temperature regimes, nutrient imbalances, and disruptions in the supply of food sources for corals and their associated ecosystems.
Shifts in Coral Species Distribution:
- As sea temperatures change and habitats are modified, the distribution of coral species may shift. Some species may migrate to cooler waters, while others may struggle to adapt or face local extinctions. These shifts can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and affect the biodiversity associated with coral reefs.

The cumulative impact of these climate-related stressors poses a severe threat to coral reefs worldwide. It’s crucial to address the root causes of climate change and implement conservation measures to enhance the resilience of coral ecosystems. Protection of coral reefs involves both local and global efforts, including sustainable fishing practices, marine protected areas, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and promoting coral reef restoration initiatives.

Coral reef ecosystems can be influenced by several feedback loops that contribute to reaching tipping points. These feedback loops often involve interactions between various environmental stressors and the responses of coral reefs. Here are some feedback loops associated with the coral reef tipping point:

Coral Bleaching Feedback Loop:
- Mechanism: Elevated sea temperatures, driven by climate change, can trigger coral bleaching, where corals expel their symbiotic algae.
- Effect: As bleaching occurs, corals become stressed and more susceptible to diseases. If bleaching is severe or occurs frequently, it weakens coral resilience and can lead to widespread coral mortality, reducing the ability of the reef to recover.
Ocean Acidification and Coral Growth Feedback Loop:
- Mechanism: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) leads to ocean acidification, hindering the ability of corals to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures.
- Effect: Weakened coral skeletons make corals more vulnerable to physical damage and limit their capacity to recover from disturbances. This feedback loop can contribute to a decline in overall coral reef health.
Storm Damage and Reef Structure Feedback Loop:
- Mechanism: Intense tropical storms, hurricanes, or cyclones, influenced by climate change, can cause physical damage to coral reefs.
- Effect: Damaged coral structures provide less protection for the reef against future storms. If storms become more frequent or severe, the cumulative impact can compromise the structural integrity of the reef and hinder recovery.
Overfishing and Algae Overgrowth Feedback Loop:
- Mechanism: Overfishing of herbivorous fish, such as parrotfish, reduces their population, leading to increased algae growth on coral reefs.
- Effect: Algae can outcompete corals for space, hindering coral growth and recovery. Reduced herbivory exacerbates the overgrowth of algae, creating a feedback loop that undermines the resilience of the coral reef ecosystem.
Disease Spread and Coral Health Feedback Loop:
- Mechanism: Climate change and environmental stressors can weaken coral health, making them more susceptible to diseases.
- Effect: As diseases spread among stressed corals, the overall health of the reef declines. Weakened corals are less able to withstand additional stressors, leading to a feedback loop of declining health and increased vulnerability.
Loss of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function Feedback Loop:
- Mechanism: Environmental stressors, such as coral bleaching and disease, can lead to the loss of key species and a decline in overall biodiversity on the reef.
- Effect: A reduction in biodiversity weakens the resilience and functioning of the coral reef ecosystem. This can create a feedback loop where the loss of key species further compromises the ability of the reef to recover from disturbances.

Mitigating these feedback loops requires comprehensive conservation strategies, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, implementing sustainable fishing practices, establishing marine protected areas, and addressing local stressors to enhance the resilience of coral reefs.

ALSO SEE:

Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet / Mukherjee and Brouse (2022 and 2023)

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now / Mukherjee and Brouse (2023)

Feedback Loops / Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee (2016)

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Climate Change and Chaos Theory

Posted on 2024/02/052024/02/06 by admin

By Daniel Brouse
February 5, 2024

Global warming is caused by an increase in thermal energy. Atmospheric circulation together with ocean circulation is how thermal energy is redistributed throughout the world. Chaos theory offers insights into the complex, nonlinear dynamics of climate systems role in the redistribution of thermal energy. The Earth’s climate is a highly complex and dynamic system, influenced by various factors such as ocean currents, atmospheric circulation, and feedback loops.

Circulation systems of air and/or water include:
* doldrums, trade winds, horse latitudes, prevailing westerlies, polar front zone, and polar easterlies
* each hemisphere has three cells — Hadley cell, Ferrel cell and Polar cell in which air circulates through the entire depth of the troposphere
* usually each hemispheres has two jet streams — a subtropical jet stream and a polar-front jet stream
* waves, tides, currents, downwelling, upwelling move water
* there are over 24 currents — Benguela Current, California Current, Falkland Current, Labrador Current, Brazil Current, Florida Current, Gulf Stream, West Australian Current, Canary Current, Kuroshio Current, North Pacific Current, Somali Current, Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Antarctica Current, Antilles Current, Mozambique Current, North Atlantic Drift, Norwegian Current, Oyashio Current, West Wind Drift, Agulhas Current, South Equatorial Current, Humboldt or Peruvian Current, Monsoon Current
* five major ocean-wide gyres —- the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean
* thermohaline (temperature and salinity) circulation systems — Gulf Stream, Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC), Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (PMOC)
* ocean-atmosphere oscillations — La Nina / El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO),
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern

How does chaos theory explain thermal energy redistributed throughout the world?

Nonlinear Dynamics:
- Chaos theory emphasizes the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems, meaning that small changes in initial conditions can lead to disproportionately large and unpredictable outcomes. In the context of climate, this nonlinearity is evident in how the redistribution of thermal energy is influenced by factors like ocean currents and atmospheric circulation, which can exhibit chaotic behavior.
Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions:
- Chaos theory also highlights the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions, commonly known as the butterfly effect. In climate systems, small variations in initial conditions, such as temperature or atmospheric pressure, can lead to significant changes in the distribution of thermal energy over time.
Complex Feedback Loops:
- Climate systems involve intricate feedback loops, where changes in one component can influence others. These feedback loops contribute to the complexity and unpredictability of thermal energy redistribution. Chaos theory helps us understand how these feedback mechanisms can amplify or dampen the effects of perturbations in the system.
Emergent Patterns:
- Chaos theory recognizes the emergence of complex patterns from seemingly chaotic systems. In climate science, emergent patterns may include large-scale phenomena like El Niño or the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which play roles in redistributing thermal energy on a global scale.
Climate Variability and Change:
- Chaos theory is particularly relevant in studying climate variability and change. While long-term trends such as global warming are discernible, the inherent chaos in the climate system introduces variability and uncertainty, making it challenging to precisely predict how thermal energy will be redistributed over shorter timescales.
Atmospheric Rivers and Droughts:
- Atmospheric rivers are concentrated bands of moisture in the atmosphere, and their behavior is influenced by various atmospheric factors. Chaos theory comes into play when trying to predict the exact paths and intensities of atmospheric rivers, especially as small changes in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes over time. Droughts result from complex interactions between atmospheric conditions, precipitation patterns, land use, and water management. Chaos theory highlights the sensitivity of drought conditions to initial conditions and the potential for nonlinear responses, making it difficult to precisely predict the onset, duration, and severity of drought events.

Complex Feedback Loops:

Complex feedback loops in climate science refer to interactions between different components of the Earth’s climate system that can amplify or dampen the effects of initial changes, leading to non-linear and often unpredictable outcomes. These feedback loops play a crucial role in shaping the behavior of the climate system and can influence various climate phenomena, including temperature changes, ice melt, and precipitation patterns.

Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. Identifying and understanding these tipping points is crucial for climate science and policymaking. Crossing multiple tipping points could lead to a domino effect, resulting in a much more rapid and severe climate change than currently projected.

Ice-Albedo Feedback:
- As the Earth warms, ice and snow melt, reducing the surface area covered by highly reflective materials (high albedo). This leads to a decrease in the Earth’s overall reflectivity, or albedo, as darker surfaces (like open water or bare ground) absorb more solar radiation. The increased absorption of sunlight further warms the surface, accelerating ice melt in a self-reinforcing loop.
Water Vapor Feedback:
- Warmer temperatures can lead to increased evaporation of water from oceans and other bodies of water. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, higher atmospheric water vapor concentrations can enhance the greenhouse effect, trapping more heat and further raising temperatures. This positive feedback loop can contribute to the amplification of global warming.
Carbon Cycle Feedback:
- The carbon cycle involves the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere, oceans, and terrestrial ecosystems. As the climate warms, it can influence processes like the release of carbon from thawing permafrost or changes in vegetation. The additional release of carbon dioxide can amplify the greenhouse effect, leading to further warming and affecting the carbon cycle in a feedback loop.
Ocean Circulation Feedback:
- Changes in temperature and salinity affect ocean circulation patterns. Alterations in ocean circulation can, in turn, influence heat distribution across the globe. For example, a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could impact regional climate patterns and further affect ocean circulation in a complex feedback loop.
Vegetation-Climate Feedback:
- Climate changes can affect vegetation patterns, altering the amount of sunlight absorbed and the release of water vapor through transpiration. Changes in vegetation cover can influence local and regional climates, creating feedback loops that may further impact ecosystems and climate patterns.
Cloud Feedback:
- Changes in temperature and atmospheric composition can affect cloud cover and properties. While clouds can both reflect sunlight and trap heat, the net effect depends on factors like cloud altitude and type. Changes in cloud cover and properties can influence the Earth’s radiation balance, creating feedback loops that can either amplify or dampen climate changes.

Chaos theory provides a framework for understanding the inherent complexity, sensitivity, and unpredictability of climate systems, including the redistribution of thermal energy. The interconnectedness of various factors and the nonlinear interactions within the Earth’s climate contribute to the intricate patterns observed in thermal energy distribution on a global scale. Climate models use principles from chaos theory to simulate these dynamic interactions.

The Earth is a climate system. Many subsystems make up our climate. Perhaps the most important factor impacting our climate is us. The biggest influence on climate change is the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere, primarily driven by human activities. The largest drivers of human induced climate change include: burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and land use, industrial processes, agriculture, waste management, and use of fluorinated gases.

Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory).Chaos theory plays a role in understanding the dynamics and potential unpredictability of social-ecological systems’ impact on climate change. Social-ecological systems encompass the interconnectedness of human societies and the ecosystems they are part of, and their behavior is influenced by a myriad of factors, including human activities, policies, resource use, and environmental changes. Chaos theory contributes insights into the complexity, sensitivity to initial conditions, and potential nonlinearities within these systems.

Here are several aspects in which chaos theory can be relevant to forecasting the impact of social-ecological systems on climate change:

Nonlinear Interactions:
- Social-ecological systems involve nonlinear interactions between human activities and environmental responses. Small changes in policies, resource management, or societal behaviors can lead to disproportionately large and unpredictable outcomes in terms of climate change impacts.
Sensitivity to Initial Conditions:
- The sensitivity of social-ecological systems to initial conditions highlights the importance of understanding how small changes or decisions can lead to significant and sometimes unexpected consequences over time. This sensitivity is crucial when forecasting the trajectory of climate change impacts resulting from human activities.
Feedback Loops:
- Feedback loops within social-ecological systems can amplify or dampen the effects of interventions or changes. For example, policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may lead to unforeseen economic or social consequences, creating feedback loops that influence climate change impacts.
Emergent Properties:
- Chaos theory recognizes emergent properties that arise from the interactions within complex systems. In the context of social-ecological systems, emergent properties may include new social norms, economic trends, or environmental patterns that affect and potentially amplify or mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Thresholds and Tipping Points:
- Social-ecological systems can exhibit thresholds and tipping points, where small changes gradually accumulate until a critical point is reached, leading to abrupt and sometimes irreversible changes. Chaos theory helps to understand the potential for sudden shifts in behavior within these systems.
Adaptive Capacity:
- Chaos theory encourages consideration of the adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems. The ability to adapt to changing conditions, learn from experiences, and adjust strategies is essential for forecasting and managing the impacts of climate change within these systems.
Uncertainty and Systemic Risks:
- Chaos theory underscores the inherent uncertainty in complex systems. Social-ecological systems are subject to systemic risks, where interconnected factors can amplify vulnerabilities. Understanding and managing these uncertainties are crucial for forecasting and responding to climate change impacts.

Incorporating chaos theory into forecasting models for social-ecological systems helps researchers and policymakers recognize the limitations of linear thinking and deterministic approaches. Embracing complexity and uncertainty can lead to more robust and adaptive strategies for addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change within the context of human societies and ecosystems.

Our model attempts to adequately account for humans and forecasts an increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History Brouse (2024)
The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)
Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

Climate Change, the Jet Stream, and East Coast Atmospheric Rivers

Posted on 2024/02/04 by admin

by Daniel Brouse

How is climate change impacting the jet stream and atmospheric rivers on the East Coast of the USA?

The interactions between various factors, including ocean currents, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation, contribute to the overall climate patterns experienced on the East Coast.

Climate change can influence the jet stream and atmospheric rivers, impacting weather patterns on the East Coast of the USA. Here are some key ways in which these changes may occur:

Jet Stream:

1. Amplification and Slowing:
  - Climate change can lead to the amplification of atmospheric patterns, including the jet stream. This can result in larger north-south swings, which may contribute to more persistent weather conditions. Additionally, a warming Arctic relative to the mid-latitudes may slow down the jet stream.
2. Stalled Weather Patterns:
  - A slower, more meandering jet stream can lead to the persistence of weather patterns, causing prolonged periods of extreme conditions such as heatwaves, cold spells, or heavy rainfall.
3. Shifts in Track:
  - Climate change may alter the typical track of the jet stream, influencing where it tends to position itself. These shifts can impact regional weather patterns, including precipitation and temperature distributions.
4. Increased Amplification:
  - As the Earth’s poles warm faster than the mid-latitudes, the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes decreases. This reduction in temperature gradient may lead to a more meandering and slower jet stream with larger north-south waves, a phenomenon known as “jet stream amplification.”
5. Wavier Jet Stream:
  - The reduced temperature contrast between the Arctic and mid-latitudes can make the jet stream more susceptible to large, slow-moving waves. This wavier pattern can result in more persistent weather conditions, including prolonged periods of heatwaves, cold spells, droughts, or heavy rainfall.
6. Increased Blocking Patterns:
  - A wavier and slower jet stream can lead to the formation of blocking patterns, where high or low-pressure systems persist in a particular location for an extended period. Blocking patterns can contribute to prolonged and extreme weather events.
7. Slower Movement:
  - Some studies suggest that the jet stream is slowing down as a result of climate change. A slower jet stream can cause weather systems to move more slowly across the landscape, potentially intensifying the impacts of extreme events such as storms, heatwaves, or heavy rainfall.
8. Changes in Zonal Flow:
  - The jet stream typically flows from west to east in a relatively straight line, a pattern known as zonal flow. Climate change may lead to more frequent disruptions of this zonal flow, causing the jet stream to meander and creating conditions for more extreme weather events.
9. Impacts on Weather Extremes:
  - Changes in the jet stream can influence the occurrence and characteristics of weather extremes, including heatwaves, cold snaps, and intense storms. These changes can have significant implications for local and regional climate patterns.
Atmospheric Rivers:
1. Increased Moisture Content:
  - Warmer temperatures associated with climate change can enhance evaporation, increasing the moisture content of the atmosphere. This, in turn, can contribute to the development of more intense atmospheric rivers, which are channels of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere.
2. Changes in Intensity and Frequency:
  - Climate change may lead to alterations in the intensity and frequency of atmospheric rivers. There is evidence suggesting that these phenomena could become more common and more potent, leading to heavier rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding.
3. Altered Trajectories:
  - Changes in the jet stream’s position and behavior can influence the trajectories of atmospheric rivers. Variations in the jet stream can result in altered paths for these moisture-laden systems, affecting the regions that experience heavy rainfall and potential flooding.
4. Extreme Weather Events:
  - Atmospheric rivers are often associated with extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and flooding. Changes in the characteristics of atmospheric rivers due to climate change can contribute to an increased likelihood of severe weather events on the East Coast.