By Daniel Brouse May 3, 2025 The current economic outlook is defined by a climate of short-term uncertainty paired with an emerging long-term certainty—though not of the reassuring kind. Recent GDP data show the U.S. economy contracting in the first quarter of 2025, signaling the beginning of a potential recession. However, these numbers do not […]
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Economic Outlook: Short-Term Uncertainty and Long-Term Certainty
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Tagged climate change, economy
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The $8 Trillion Disappearing Act: How U.S. Multinationals Skew the Trade Deficit
by Daniel Brouse May 1, 2025 Donald Trump’s Trade Deficit Calculations Ignore the Real Structure of the Modern U.S. Economy Donald Trump’s trade deficit claims are fundamentally flawed, reflecting an outdated view of global commerce and overlooking several major components of the U.S. economy. Most notably, his figures exclude the substantial value of U.S. service […]
The Unraveling of American Leadership: How Trump’s Policies Are Reshaping the Global Order and Undermining U.S. Credibility
by Daniel Brouse April 20, 2025 Donald Trump’s economic, immigration, and environmental policies have had significant ripple effects that are altering the global order and undercutting America’s role as a global leader. Here’s a breakdown of how each domain contributes to these broader consequences: 1. Economic Policies: Nationalism Over Globalism Tariffs and Trade Wars: Trump’s […]
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Tagged climate change, economy
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The Dollar in Decline: Capital Flight, Reserve Status, and America’s Economic Reckoning
by Daniel Brouse April 19, 2025 The recent flight from the U.S. dollar reflects a growing movement by investors and central banks to reduce their holdings of dollar-denominated assets—like U.S. Treasury bonds—in favor of alternative currencies, commodities such as gold, or more stable markets offering higher returns. This trend is accelerating due to a combination […]
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Tagged economy
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It’s the Service, Stupid: Understanding the Real U.S. Economy
By Daniel Brouse April 17, 2025 One of the most fundamental misconceptions of Trumpenomics is the belief that the United States is—or should be—a manufacturing-first economy. In reality, the U.S. has evolved into a service-based powerhouse and is now the world’s largest exporter of services, including finance, healthcare, education, software, intellectual property, and other knowledge-driven […]
Cracked Safe Haven: Historic Deviations in U.S. Treasury Bonds
By Daniel Brouse April 16, 2025 Exceeding a standard deviation means that a data point is significantly different from the average — a statistical red flag. In finance or economics: A move of 1 standard deviation is unusual but not rare. 2 or more indicates extreme behavior — often signaling stress, instability, or systemic change. […]
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Tagged economy
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Deviation, Cracked Fractals, Climate, and Economics
by Daniel Brouse April 14, 2025 Cracked Fractals & U.S. Climate/Fiscal Policy The U.S. economy and climate systems are exhibiting the erratic behavior of complex systems approaching critical thresholds — resembling “cracked fractals,” those chaotic, fragile patterns that form when dynamic systems near collapse. These structures are not just visual metaphors; they represent branching futures, […]
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Tagged climate change, economy
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The Demise of the Dollar and U.S. Exceptionalism
by Daniel Brouse April 13, 2025 Economic Collapse Ends the Era of Mass Consumption, Capitalism, and Fossil Fuel Dependence In 2017 and 2018, many economists warned of rising inflation and interest rates due to Donald Trump’s economic, environmental, and social policies — warnings that were largely dismissed at the time. Few believed the U.S. dollar, […]
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Tagged economy, real estate
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Dollar Outflows, Fed Policy, and Foreign Mortgage Holdings Amid Economic Strain
by Daniel Brouse April 13, 2025 Over the past three months, global capital flows, Federal Reserve policy, and the health of U.S. mortgage-backed securities have each come under renewed pressure as economic uncertainty deepens. The confluence of a weakening dollar, rising international disinvestment, and domestic credit strains is redefining the outlook for U.S. financial stability. […]
The Race Against Time: Climate Crisis vs. the United States
by Daniel Brouse April 12, 2025 AbstractHumanity stands at a historic crossroads where the accelerating pace of climate change threatens to overtake both our capacity for response and the viability of the global economic system itself. Recent models indicate that without immediate intervention, climate change could cause the collapse of capitalism as we know it—potentially […]
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Tagged climate change, economy, extreme weather events, sea level rising
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