Category: Global Warming

bookmark_borderMagnitude and Speed of Sea Level Rise = Global Crisis

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There are a growing number of scientist that have concluded climate change is severe. Recently, Jim Hansen, a professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, wrote:

“One conclusion we share in the latter paper is that ice sheet models that guided IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) sea level projections and upcoming United Nations meetings in Paris are far too sluggish compared with the magnitude and speed of sea level changes in the paleoclimate record. An implication is that continued high emissions likely would result in multi-meter sea level rise this century and lock in continued ice sheet disintegration such that building cities or rebuilding cities on coast lines would become foolish.

The bottom line message we as scientists should deliver to the public and to policymakers is that we have a global crisis, an emergency that calls for global cooperation to reduce emissions as rapidly as practical. We conclude and reaffirm in our present paper that the crisis calls for an across-the-board rising carbon fee and international technical cooperation in carbon-free technologies. This urgent science must become part of a global conversation about our changing climate and what all citizens can do to make the world livable for future generations.”

bookmark_borderSea Level Warning

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A new study, written by James Hansen (NASA’s former lead climate scientist) and 16 co-authors, concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous estimates. The result could be a sea level rise of at least 10 feet in the next 50 years. Hanson said the new findings would be “substantially more persuasive than anything previously published.”

“We conclude that continued high emissions will make multi-meter sea level rise practically unavoidable and likely to occur this century. Social disruption and economic consequences of such large sea level rise could be devastating. It is not difficult to imagine that conflicts arising from forced migrations and economic collapse might make the planet ungovernable, threatening the fabric of civilization.”

bookmark_borderEPA: Climate Change Report

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WASHINGTON –The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today released one of the most comprehensive analyses to date on the economic, health and environmental benefits to the United States of global climate action. The peer-reviewed report, “Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action,” examines how future impacts and damages of climate change across a number of sectors in the United States can be avoided or reduced with global action. The report compares two future scenarios: a future with significant global action on climate change, where global warming has been limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and a future with no action on climate change (where global temperatures rise 9 degrees Fahrenheit). The report then quantifies the differences in health, infrastructure and ecosystem impacts under the two scenarios, producing estimates of the costs of inaction and the benefits of reducing global GHG emissions.

“Will the United States benefit from climate action? Absolutely. This report shows us how costly inaction will be to Americans’ health, our environment and our society. But more importantly, it helps us understand the magnitude of benefits to a number of sectors of the U.S. with global climate action,” said EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy. “We can save tens of thousands of American lives, and hundreds of billions of dollars, annually in the United States by the end of this century, but the sooner we act, the better off America and future generations of Americans will be.”

The report examines how the impacts and damages of climate change across a number of sectors in the United States can be avoided with global action. The findings include:

• Global action on climate change reduces the frequency of extreme weather events and associated impacts. For example, by 2100 global action on climate change is projected to avoid an estimated 12,000 deaths annually associated with extreme temperatures in 49 U.S. cities, compared to a future with no reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This is more than a 90 percent reduction from what we would expect with no action.

• Global action now leads to greater benefits over time. The decisions we make today will have long-term effects, and future generations will either benefit from, or be burdened by, our current actions. Compared to a future with unchecked climate change, climate action is projected to avoid approximately 13,000 deaths in 2050 and 57,000 deaths annually in 2100 from poor air quality. Delaying action on emissions reductions will likely reduce these and other benefits.

• Global action on climate change avoids costly damages in the United States. For nearly all of the 20 sectors studied, global action on climate change significantly reduces the economic damages of climate change. For example, without climate action, we estimated up to $10 billion in increased road maintenance costs each year by the end of the century. With action, we can avoid up to $7 billion of these damages.

• Climate change impacts are not equally distributed. Some regions of the United States are more vulnerable than others and will bear greater impacts. For example, without action on climate change, California is projected to face increasing risk of drought, the Rocky Mountain region will see significant increases in wildfires, and the mid-Atlantic and Southeast are projected to experience infrastructure damage from extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, sea level rise, and storm surge.

• Adaptation can reduce damages and costs. For some sectors, adaptation can substantially reduce the impacts of climate change. For example, in a future without greenhouse gas reductions, estimated damages from sea-level rise and storm surge to coastal property in the lower 48 states are $5.0 trillion dollars through 2100. With adaptation along the coast, the estimated damages and adaptation costs are reduced to $810 billion.

The report is a product of the Climate Change Impacts and Risks Analysis (CIRA) project, led by EPA in collaboration with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Pacific Northwest National Lab, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and other partners. The CIRA project is one of the first efforts to quantify the benefits of global action on climate change across a large number of U.S. sectors using a common analytic framework and consistent underlying data inputs. The project spans 20 U.S. sectors related to health, infrastructure, electricity, water resources, agriculture and forestry, and ecosystems.

bookmark_borderSupreme Court Upholds Pollution

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The Supreme Court over-ruled one of the Obama administration’s environmental protections — an Environmental Protection Agency regulation that limits emissions of mercury and other pollution from coal-fired power plants.

Writing for the majority, in the 5-to-4 decision, Justice Antonin Scalia wrote: “It is not rational, never mind ‘appropriate,’ to impose billions of dollars in economic costs in return for a few dollars in health or environmental benefits. Statutory context supports this reading.”

In dissent, Justice Elena Kagan wrote: “The agency acted well within its authority in declining to consider costs at the opening bell of the regulatory process given that it would do so in every round thereafter — and given that the emissions limits finally issued would depend crucially on those accountings.”

“The E.P.A. will have to do more homework on costs,” said Sean Donahue, representing environmental groups. “But I’m very confident that the final rule will be up and running and finally approved without a great deal of trouble. This is a disappointment. It’s a bump in the road, but I don’t think by any means it’s the end of this program.”

bookmark_borderCatastrophic Impacts of Climate Change

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A study by University College London (UCL) concludes we heave severely underestimated the health impacts of global warming. “The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will dramatically increase.”

“In essence, whether we respond to “the biggest global health threat of the 21st century” is no longer a technical or economic question — it is political. An effective international agreement will be one that supports stronger efforts everywhere and at every level,” the report says.

The Business Insider reports, “The direct health impacts will come from heat waves, floods, droughts and storms, but the indirect impacts, such as changes in infectious disease patterns, pollution, malnutrition, mass migrations, and conflicts will be just as impactful.”

“Our analysis clearly shows that by tackling climate change, we can also benefit health, and tackling climate change in fact represents one of the greatest opportunities to benefit human health for generations to come,” Commission co-Chair Professor Anthony Costello, Director of the UCL Institute for Global Health told UCL News.

“The difficulty, essentially, is ourselves: the tendency of humans to ignore or discount unpleasant facts or difficult choices, the nature of companies and countries to defend their own rather than collective interests and the narrow, short term horizons of most human institutions, which feed into the difficulties of global negotiations,” the report concludes.

bookmark_borderThe Sixth Mass Extinction Is Here

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Researchers from several universities have released a study that concludes the Earth has entered into its sixth mass extinction. Rob Jordan author of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment states, “There is no longer any doubt: We are entering a mass extinction that threatens humanity’s existence.”

The onset of the extinction is due to human activity. Paul Ehrlich, the Bing Professor of Population Studies in biology and a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, calls for “fast action to conserve threatened species, populations and habitat, but warn that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.”

“The study shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event,” Ehrlich said. “There are examples of species all over the world that are essentially the walking dead. We are sawing off the limb that we are sitting on.”

The study shows that “even with extremely conservative estimates, species are disappearing up to about 100 times faster than the normal rate between mass extinctions.”

“If it is allowed to continue, life would take many millions of years to recover, and our species itself would likely disappear early on,” said lead author Gerardo Ceballos of the Universidad Autónoma de México.

“We are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event,” one of the authors of the paper told the BBC.

Gerardo Ceballos, lead author of the research, added: “If it is allowed to continue, life would take many millions of years to recover and our species itself would likely disappear early on”.

The main causes of the mass extinction are:

 

  • Land clearing for farming, logging and settlement
  • Introduction of invasive species
  • Carbon emissions that drive climate change and ocean acidification
  • Toxins that alter and poison ecosystems

 

Extinction Chart
Extinction Chart

bookmark_borderGeneral Fusion

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by Daniel Brouse

Nuclear fusion may be the only energy source that can save humankind from climate change. General Fusion is a British Columbia company that is working on an unlimited supply of green energy.  “Fusion powers the sun, and harnessing fusion here on earth would transform the world’s energy supply.  Fusion fuel is abundant and fusion is clean, resulting in no pollution or greenhouse gas emissions. Fusion is also safe: the process cannot runaway and produces no long-lived radioactive waste.”

General Fusion’s Magnetized Target Fusion system uses a sphere, filled with molten lead-lithium that is pumped to form a vortex.  On each pulse, magnetically-confined plasma is injected into the vortex. Around the sphere, an array of pistons impact and drive a pressure wave into the center of the sphere, compressing the plasma to fusion conditions.

Lockheed Martin is also working on developing a fusion reactor.

bookmark_borderCarbon Dioxide Breaks 800,000 Year Record

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NOAA — For 800,000 years before the twentieth century, carbon dioxide levels in Earth’s atmosphere never exceeded 300 parts per million. Then the Industrial Revolution began, and modern human civilization started burning through millions of years of fossilized carbon in the geological blink of an eye.

NOAA scientists reported that in March 2015 the monthly average global carbon dioxide level went above 400 parts per million for the first time. The graph below puts this value into historical context, showing modern observations since 1980. The seasonal cycle of plant growth and decay in the Northern Hemisphere causes the dips and peaks in the line.

The graph is overlaid on an astronaut photograph of the Earth’s atmospheric limb—the narrow halo of air that appears as a layered cake when viewed from the side and far away. Heat from the sun-warmed surface of the Earth must travel that distance and pass back out to space for Earth’s surface temperature to remain in balance.

But within those layers of atmosphere, carbon dioxide molecules absorb heat, just like the bricks in your chimney absorb heat from a fire. The more carbon dioxide, the more heating, and the longer it takes the atmosphere to cool off. Every night, the solar heating stops, and everything begins to cool off, but every day the Sun comes up and restarts the heating. Because the day’s heat takes longer on average to pass through all those layers than it did when there was less carbon dioxide, Earth’s average temperature has gone up. The more carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) we add, the more it will continue to go up.

In addition to the cascade of climate impacts from this global warming—rising sea level, more extreme rain events, insect pest population explosions, increasing coral bleaching—the extra carbon dioxide is also changing the pH of the ocean. Carbon dioxide is mildly acidic when it dissolves in water (think of your favorite carbonated beverage). The ocean’s rising acidity has harmed oysters and other marine creatures by weakening their shells.

When commenting on the milestone, NOAA scientists pointed out that carbon dioxide is a long-lived greenhouse gas, so stopping the further increase in emissions will not immediately return the Earth’s temperature to it’s pre-industrial state. Once we stop adding more than the Earth’s natural systems can remove in any given year, we will still have to wait thousands of years for the Earth to completely remove the excess amount we have already emitted.

Image by NOAA Climate.gov, based on monthly global carbon dioxide data from Mauna Loa Observatory, provided by NOAA ESRL. Astronaut photograph courtesy NASA Earth Observatory.

Record CO2 Level
Record CO2 Level

bookmark_border12.5 Million Dead Trees in California

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CALIFORNIA — In a survey conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, they found the severe drought in California has caused the death of over 12 million trees.

California is in its third year of drought. In 2014, a large increase in tree mortality was observed, especially in the Central Coast and Southern Sierra Ranges. Ground observations noted a continued increase in mortality after the 2014 surveys were flown in July. Early season aerial surveys were conducted in the spring of 2015 in response to the continuing drought and the resulting tree mortality. Another early survey over portions of Southern California was flown the week of April 6th.
• More than 4.1 million acres were surveyed; covering western portions of Stanislaus, Sierra and Sequoia National Forests and Yosemite and Sequoia – Kings Canyon National Parks. The Tehachapi Range and nearby private lands were also surveyed.
• In general mortality was quite severe in many pine species especially in ponderosa and pinyon at lower elevations and more southern areas.
• Along thefoothills mortality was often widespread and severe especially in ponderosa but also gray pine and likely blue and live oak. It unknown if the oaks that were mapped were truly dead or had died back/defoliated due to the drought.
• On the Stanislaus, mortality was scattered in northern areas, but pockets of severe ponderosa and other pine mortality were seen in the  southern low areas. Mortality roughly doubled since July 2014 in the areas of the Stanislaus that were resurveyed this spring.
• At higher elevations conifer mortality was scattered. The survey was too early to detect full extent of mortality levels and anemic levels of snow were common.
• On the Sierra and Sequoia NF pine mortality, mostly from western pine beetle, was common and severe almost everywhere at lower elevations. Estimated number of trees killed on these two Forests together exceeded 5 million. Only about 300,000 trees were estimated killed last year in the same area.
• Southeastern portions of the Sequoia NF and Wilderness areas further east were also flown and widespread, at times, intense pinyon mortality was observed.
• On the Tehachapi Range and on private lands along the foothills of the Sierras, extensive areas of pine mortality were common. Large areas of oak mortality was also suspect.
Dead Pine Trees in California
Dead Pine Trees in California

bookmark_borderDesalination

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by Daniel Brouse

San Diego County — As drinking water becomes scarcer, desalination will become a rising trend. California is experiencing an extended drought. San Diego County is building a $1 billion desalination plant.

Fresh drinking water will become a larger battle ground as it becomes shorter in supply. Global warming is causing contamination in large fresh water supplies. For example:
Flooding causes sewage treatment plants and other toxic spills to be dispersed.
Droughts cause an obvious shortage of water.
Rising sea water causes salinization. Salt destroys the soil and the drinking water.

San Diego has already seen the need for drinking water. “It was not an easy decision to build this plant,” said Mark Weston, chairman of the agency that supplies water to San Diego County. “But it is turning out to be a spectacular choice. What we thought was on the expensive side 10 years ago is now affordable.”

Since much of the world’s fresh water problems are becoming more severe due to global warming, it is ironic that the plant will use huge amounts of electricity adding to the problem. There is also concern over what the plant will do to sea life. What happens to plants and animals in the 50 million gallons of water a day? “Fish and other marine organisms are killed on the intake screens (impingement); organisms small enough to pass through, such as plankton, fish eggs, and larvae, are killed during processing of the salt water.” [Heather Cooley, Newsha Ajami, Matthew Heberger, The Pacific Institute December 11, 2013]

“Our position is that seawater desalination should be the option of last resort,” said Sean Bothwell, an attorney with the California Coastkeeper Alliance, an environmental coalition that has battled California’s turn toward the technology. “We need to fully use all the sustainable supplies that we have available to us first.”

As the sea level rises, more fresh water sources will become brackish at the same time as extreme weather events will cause extraordinary droughts. It’s a fresh water double whammy.

Reference: The New York Times 2015/04/12

UPDATE:

Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant – Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_%22Bud%22_Lewis_Carlsbad_Desalination_Plant

The Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant is a desalination plant that opened on December 14, 2015 in Carlsbad, California, adjacent to the north end of the Encina Power Station. The San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA), the recipient of the fresh …. “$1-billion desalination plant, hailed as model for state, opens in Carlsbad”.