Category: Global Warming

bookmark_borderClimate Change: No Credible Pathway to 1.5C Limit

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The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) insisted there is “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place.” The report Climate change: No ‘credible pathway’ to 1.5C limit found:

National pledges to reduce harmful emissions offer little hope of avoiding climate disaster, UN climate experts said on Thursday, in an urgent appeal for a radical transformation of the energy sector, before it’s too late.

There’s “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place” today, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) insisted in a new report, despite legally binding promises made at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference to prevent average temperatures rising by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Uncomfortable truth
“This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.

“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster.”

Despite Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) promises made by governments in favour of reducing their carbon footprint, pledges made since the last climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 will lead to cuts of less than one per cent of projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions, according to UNEP.
Paltry reductions

This is the equivalent of just 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2, UNEP calculated, adding that only a 45 per cent emissions reduction will limit global warming to 1.5C.

As it stands today, latest data indicates that the world is on track for a temperature rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C by the end of this century.

“In the best-case scenario, full implementation of unconditional NDCs and additional net-zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8C increase, so there is hope. However, this scenario is not currently credible based on the discrepancy between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets,” UNEP said.
Fossil fuel-free solution

For the situation to improve, a “large-scale, rapid” and fossil fuel-free shake-up is needed of our “electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems” to cut emissions by 45 per cent to limit global warming to 1.5C, and by 30 per cent to keep average temperature rise to 2C, the UN agency explained.

And although the transformation towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is underway in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings, it needs to move “much faster”, the report concludes.

It found that electricity supply transformation had made most progress in some countries, amid dramatically reduced renewable electricity prices.

“It is a tall, and some would say impossible order, to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we must try,” said Ms. Andersen. “Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to species and ecosystems, and to every one of us.”
Food system reform

Rapid and lasting emissions cuts are needed in food production industries too, as this accounts for about a third of greenhouse gases, UNEP continued.

It noted that action in four areas – protection of natural ecosystems, dietary changes, improvements in farm food production and decarbonization of food supply chains – would reduce food system emissions by 2050 to around a third of current levels.

Global Warming

bookmark_borderClimate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now

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The UN’s United in Science 2022 release their report A multi-organization high-level compilation of the most recent science related to climate change, impacts and responses.

In order to avoid catastrophic climate change, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030. Currently, greenhouse gas emissions will INCREASE by 13% by 2030.

“According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.”

Countries’ climate promises still not enough to avoid catastrophic global warming
The current combined National Determined Contributions (NDCs)—meaning the countries’ national efforts to tackle emissions and mitigate climate change—are leading our planet to at least 2.5 degrees warming, a level deemed catastrophic by scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

According to the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue to rise,
despite emissions reductions in 2020 resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The Global Carbon Project also
notes that, in 2021, global fossil CO2 emissions returned to 2019 pre-pandemic levels after a large, but temporary, absolute
drop in emissions due to widespread lockdowns. These conditions are leading to increasing global surface temperature and
other climatic changes, as highlighted by the WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report, which found the most recent
seven years, 2015 to 2021, to be the warmest on record.

Looking forward, the Met Office (UK), in partnership with the World Climate Research Programme, found that there is a 48%
chance that, during at least one year in the next five years, annual mean temperature will temporarily be 1.5 °C higher than
in 1850-1900. Additionally, there is a 93% chance that at least one year in the same time period will be the hottest on record.
The UN Environment Programme’s latest Emissions Gap Report found that the full implementation of mitigation pledges
made by countries (as of 4 November 2021) is insufficient and will not keep global warming below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels. The report also found that the ambition of these pledges would need to be four times higher to keep global temperature
rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and seven times higher to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Enhanced mitigation action
is needed to prevent the goals of the Paris Agreement from slipping out of reach.

Without ambitious action, the physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change will be devastating. Irreversible
physical changes in the climate system, known as tipping points, can not be ruleld out and could have significant global
and regional consequences. According to the Urban Climate Change Research Network, cities – responsible for up to 70%
of human-caused emissions – will face increasing climate impacts that will intersect with socioeconomic inequalities.
Additionally, the WMO World Weather Research Programme highlights that it is the world’s most vulnerable populations
that will suffer the most, as has already been observed during recent extreme weather events.

Billions of people around the world are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As a result, adaptation and
disaster risk reduction are crucial to lower the risks to climate impacts. According to WMO and the UN Office for Disaster
Risk Reduction, early warning systems not only save lives and reduce losses and damages, but also contribute to disaster
risk reduction, and support climate change adaptation. However, less than half of all countries in the world have these
crucial systems and coverage is particuarly low in vulnerable countries. To address this issue, the United Nations Secretary-
General António Guterres called for new action to ensure every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems in
the next five years.

Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released highly anticipated Working Group reports
covering The Physical Science Basis; Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; and Mitigation of Climate Change, which are an
integral part of its Sixth Assessment Report. These important reports identify the strength of scientific agreement in these
different areas as well as where further research is needed.

The science is clear – urgent action is needed to mitigate emissions and adapt to our changing climate. The United Nations
system, along with its partners, will continue to provide world-leading science to inform decision-making and support
global climate action.

Global Warming.

bookmark_borderHealth and Climate Change: Health at the Mercy of Fossil Fuels

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The Lancet released the report The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels.

Q: Are millions of people already dying as a result of human induced climate change?
A: Yes.

Q: Can millions of people’s lives still be saved?
A: Yes, “a health-centred response can still deliver a thriving future if immediate action is taken.”
“The health impacts of multiple crises are being exacerbated by persistent fossil fuel dependence and putting additional strain on health systems. This is resulting in increased risk of food insecurity, infectious disease transmission, heat-related disease, energy poverty, and deaths from exposure to air pollution.”

A call to action
After 30 years of UNFCCC negotiations, the Lancet Countdown indicators show that countries and companies continue to make choices that threaten the health and survival of people in every part of the world. As countries devise ways to recover from the coexisting crises, the evidence is unequivocal. At this critical juncture, an immediate, health-centred response can still secure a future in which world populations can not only survive, but thrive.

Key findings of the 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown

  • • Climate change is undermining every dimension of global health monitored, increasing the fragility of the global systems that health depends on, and increasing the vulnerability of populations to the coexisting geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises.
  • • Climate change is increasingly undermining global food security, exacerbating the effects of the COVID-19, geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises. New analysis of 103 countries shows that days of extreme heat, increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, accounted for an estimated 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than the average in 1981–2010 (indicator 1.4).
  • • Well-prepared health systems are essential to protect populations from the health impacts of climate change. However, global health systems have been drastically weakened by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the funds available for climate action decreased in 239 (30%) of 798 cities (indicator 2.1.3), with health systems increasingly being affected by extreme weather events and supply chain disruptions too.
  • • Insufficient climate change adaptation efforts have left health systems vulnerable to climate change-related health hazards. Only 48 of 95 countries have assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and only 63% of countries reported high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4). Increasing adaptation to climate change has the potential to simultaneously improve the capacity of health systems to manage both future infectious disease outbreaks and other health emergencies (indicator 2.3.1).
  • • Mitigation of the energy sector is crucial to keep the rise in global mean surface temperatures within the 1·5°C target set in the Paris Agreement. However, the energy sector is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Its carbon intensity decreased by less than 1% since the year the UNFCCC was signed, and a simultaneous increase in energy demand of 59% has increased total energy sector emissions to record high levels in 2021 (indicator 3.1). Now, as countries seek alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, many are backsliding to coal, and shifts in global energy supplies risk a net increase in fossil fuel production and consumption.
  • • The slow adoption of renewable energies, which contribute to only 2.2% of total global energy supply (indicator 3.1), means households remain vulnerable to highly volatile international fossil fuel markets, and millions lack access to reliable, clean sources of fuel. Traditional biomass accounts for 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, and for 96% of that in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). New analysis shows that the air in people’s homes in 62 countries analysed exceeded WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020, by 30-fold on average (indicator 3.2). The current energy and cost-of-living crises, now threatens to worsen enery poverty.
  • • A new indicator this year reveals that, on the basis of their existing production strategies and market shares, 15 of the largest oil and gas companies would exceed their share of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the 1·5°C climate target by an average of 87% (publicly-listed international companies) and 111% (state-owned national companies) in 2040 making the goals of the Paris Agreement unattainable (indicator 4.2.6).
  • • In 2019, 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion. These subsidies exceeded 10% of national health spending in 31 countries and exceeded 100% in 5 countries (indicator 4.2.4). Meanwhile, climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1).
  • • A health-centred response to the coexisting climate, energy, and cost-of-living crises provides an opportunity to deliver a healthy, low-carbon future. Transitioning to clean energy and improved energy efficiency can avert the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while also improving energy security, supporting economic recovery, preventing the 1·2 million annual deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 (indicator 3.3), and improving health outcomes by promoting active forms of travel for greener cities. The associated reduction in the burden of disease will in turn reduce the strain on overwhelmed healthcare providers, and enable better care.
  • • The media, the scientific community, corporations, and country leaders are increasingly engaging in health and climate change (indicators 5.1–5.5), and new analysis shows that 86% of updated or new Nationally Determined Contributions now reference health (indicator 5.4).
  • • Countries are attempting to cut their dependence on international oil and gas supplies in response to the war in Ukraine and energy crisis, with some focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes that a health-centred response could be emerging. However, the increased engagement and commitments must be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

Executive summary

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world’s populations to concurrent health threats.

During 2021 and 2022, extreme weather events caused devastation across every continent, adding further pressure to health services already grappling with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Floods in Australia, Brazil, China, western Europe, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Africa, and South Sudan caused thousands of deaths, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and caused billions of dollars in economic losses. Wildfires caused devastation in Canada, the USA, Greece, Algeria, Italy, Spain, and Türkiye, and record temperatures were recorded in many countries, including Australia, Canada, India, Italy, Oman, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the UK. With advancements in the science of detection and attribution studies, the influence of climate change over many events has now been quantified.

Because of the rapidly increasing temperatures, vulnerable populations (adults older than 65 years, and children younger than one year of age) were exposed to 3·7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than annually in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2), and heat-related deaths increased by 68% between 2000–04 and 2017–21 (indicator 1.1.5), a death toll that was significantly exacerbated by the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Simultaneously, the changing climate is affecting the spread of infectious diseases, putting populations at higher risk of emerging diseases and co-epidemics. Coastal waters are becoming more suitable for the transmission of Vibrio pathogens; the number of months suitable for malaria transmission increased by 31·3% in the highland areas of the Americas and 13·8% in the highland areas of Africa from 1951–60 to 2012–21, and the likelihood of dengue transmission rose by 12% in the same period (indicator 1.3.1). The coexistence of dengue outbreaks with the COVID-19 pandemic led to aggravated pressure on health systems, misdiagnosis, and difficulties in management of both diseases in many regions of South America, Asia, and Africa.

The economic losses associated with climate change impacts are also increasing pressure on families and economies already challenged with the synergistic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the international cost-of-living and energy crises, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants that good health depends on. Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021 (indicator 1.1.4), with potential income losses equivalent to 0·72% of the global economic output, increasing to 5·6% of the GDP in low Human Development Index (HDI) countries, where workers are most vulnerable to the effects of financial fluctuations (indicator 4.1.3). Meanwhile, extreme weather events caused damage worth US$253 billion in 2021, particularly burdening people in low HDI countries in which almost none of the losses were insured (indicator 4.1.1).

Through multiple and interconnected pathways, every dimension of food security is being affected by climate change, aggravating the impacts of other coexisting crises. The higher temperatures threaten crop yields directly, with the growth seasons of maize on average 9 days shorter in 2020, and the growth seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat 6 days shorter than for 1981–2010 globally (indicator 1.4). The threat to crop yields adds to the rising impact of extreme weather on supply chains, socioeconomic pressures, and the risk of infectious disease transmission, undermining food availability, access, stability, and utilisation. New analysis suggests that extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than annually in 1981–2010, in 103 countries analysed (indicator 1.4). The increasingly extreme weather worsens the stability of global food systems, acting in synergy with other concurrent crises to reverse progress towards hunger eradication. Indeed, the prevalence of undernourishment increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and up to 161 million more people faced hunger during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than in 2019. This situation is now worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy and cost-of-living crises, with impacts on international agricultural production and supply chains threatening to result in 13 million additional people facing undernutrition in 2022.

A debilitated first line of defence

With the worsening health impacts of climate change compounding other coexisting crises, populations worldwide increasingly rely on health systems as their first line of defence. However, just as the need for healthcare rises, health systems worldwide are debilitated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy and cost-of-living crises. Urgent action is therefore needed to strengthen health-system resilience and to prevent a rapidly escalating loss of lives and to prevent suffering in a changing climate. However, only 48 (51%) of 95 countries reported having assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and, even after the profound impacts of COVID-19, only 60 (63%) countries reported a high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4).

The scarcity of proactive adaptation is shown in the response to extreme heat. Despite the local cooling and overall health benefits of urban greenspaces, only 277 (27%) of 1038 global urban centres were at least moderately green in 2021 (indicator 2.2.3), and the number of households with air conditioning increased by 66% from 2000 to 2020, a maladaptive response that worsens the energy crisis and further increases urban heat, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions.

As converging crises further threaten the world’s life-supporting systems, rapid, decisive, and coherent intersectoral action is essential to protect human health from the hazards of the rapidly changing climate.

Health at the mercy of fossil fuels

The year 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, in which countries agreed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change and its deleterious effects on human health and welfare. However, little meaningful action has since followed. The carbon intensity of the global energy system has decreased by less than 1% since the UNFCCC was established, and global electricity generation is still dominated by fossil fuels, with renewable energy contributing to only 8·2% of the global total (indicator 3.1). Simultaneously, the total energy demand has risen by 59%, increasing energy-related emissions to a historical high in 2021. Current policies put the world on track to a catastrophic 2·7°C increase by the end of the century. Even with the commitments that countries set in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) updated up until November 2021, global emissions could be 13·7% above 2010 levels by 2030—far from the 43% decrease from current levels required to meet Paris Agreement goals and keep temperatures within the limits of adaptation.

Fossil fuel dependence is not only undermining global health through increased climate change impacts, but also affects human health and wellbeing directly, through volatile and unpredictable fossil fuel markets, frail supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts. As a result, millions of people do not have access to the energy needed to keep their homes at healthy temperatures, preserve food and medication, and meet the seventh Sustainable Development Goal (to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all). Without sufficient support, access to clean energy has been particularly slow in low HDI countries, and only 1·4% of their electricity came from modern renewables (mostly wind and solar power) in 2020 (indicator 3.1). An estimated 59% of health-care facilities in low and middle-income countries still do not have access to the reliable electricity needed to provide basic care. Meanwhile, biomass accounts for as much as 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, mostly from traditional sources—a proportion that increases to 96% in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). The associated burden of disease is substantial, with the air in people’s homes exceeding WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020 by 30-fold on average in the 62 countries assessed (indicator 3.2). After 6 years of improvement, the number of people without access to electricity increased in 2020 as a result of the socioeconomic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current energy and cost-of-living crises now threaten to reverse progress toward affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants of health.

Simultaneously, oil and gas companies are registering record profits, while their production strategies continue to undermine people’s lives and wellbeing. An analysis of the production strategies of 15 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, as of February 2022, revealed they exceed their share of emissions consistent with 1·5°C of global heating (indicator 4.2.6) by 37% in 2030 and 103% in 2040, continuing to undermine efforts to deliver a low carbon, healthy, liveable future. Aggravating this situation even further, governments continue to incentivise fossil fuel production and consumption: 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion in 2019, allocating amounts often comparable with or even exceeding their total health budgets (indicator 4.2.4). Simultaneously, wealthier countries failed to meet their commitment of mobilising the considerably lower sum of $100 billion annually by 2020 as agreed at the 2009 Copenhagen Accord to support climate action in “developing countries”, and climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1). The impacts of climate change on global economies, together with the recession triggered by COVID-19 and worsened by geopolitical instability, could paradoxically further reduce the willingness of countries to allocate the funds needed to enable a just climate transition.

A health-centred response for a thriving future

The world is at a critical juncture. With countries facing concurrent crises, the implementation of long-term emissions-reduction policies risks being deflected or defeated by challenges wrongly perceived as more immediate. Addressing each of the concurrent crises in isolation risks alleviating one, while worsening another. Such a situation is emerging from the response to COVID-19, which has so far has not delivered the green recovery that the health community proposed, and, on the contrary, is aggravating climate change-related health risks. Less than one third of $3·11 trillion allocated to COVID-19 economic recovery is likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution, with the net effect likely to increase emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic affected climate action at the city level, and 239 (30%) of 798 cities reported that COVID-19 reduced financing available for climate action (indicator 2.1.3).

As countries search for alternatives to Russian oil and gas, many continue to favour the burning of fossil fuels, with some even turning back to coal. Shifts in global energy supplies threaten to increase fossil fuel production. Even if implemented as a temporary transition, these responses could reverse progress on air quality improvement, irreversibly push the world off track from meeting the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement, and guarantee a future of accelerated climate change that threatens human survival.

On the contrary, in this pivotal moment, a health-centred response to the current crises would still provide the opportunity for a low-carbon, resilient future, which not only avoids the health harms of accelerated climate change, but also delivers improved health and wellbeing through the associated co-benefits of climate action. Such response would see countries promptly shifting away from fossil fuels, reducing their dependence on fragile international oil and gas markets, and accelerating a just transition to clean energy sources. A health-centred response would reduce the likelihood of the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while improving energy security, creating an opportunity for economic recovery, and offering immediate health benefits. Improvements in air quality would help to prevent the 1·2 million deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 in 2020 alone (indicator 3.3), and a health-centred energy transition would enhance low-carbon travel and increase urban green spaces, promoting physical activity, and improving physical and mental health. In the food sector, an accelerated transition to balanced and more plant-based diets would not only help reduce the 55% of agricultural sector emissions coming from red meat and milk production (indicator 3.5.1), but also prevent up to 11·5 million diet-related deaths annually (indicator 3.5.2), and substantially reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases. These health-focused shifts would reduce the burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, reducing the strain on overwhelmed health-care providers. Importantly, accelerating climate change adaptation would lead to more robust health systems, minimising the negative impacts of future infectious disease outbreaks and geopolitical conflicts, and restoring the first line of defence of global populations.

Emerging glimmers of hope

Despite decades of insufficient action, emerging, albeit few, signs of change provide some hope that a health-centred response might be starting to emerge. Individual engagement with the health dimensions of climate change, essential to drive and enable an accelerated response, increased from 2020 to 2021 (indicator 5.2), and coverage of health and climate change in the media reached a new record high in 2021, with a 27% increase from 2020 (indicator 5.1). This engagement is also reflected by country leaders, with a record 60% of 194 countries focusing their attention on the links between climate change and health in the 2021 UN General Debate, and with 86% of national updated or new NDCs making references to health (indicator 5.4). At the city level, local authorities are progressively identifying risks of climate change on the health of their populations (indicator 2.1.3), a first step to delivering a tailored response that strengthens local health systems. Although the health sector is responsible for 5·2% of all global emissions (indicator 3.6), it has shown impressive climate leadership, and 60 countries had committed to transitioning to climate-resilient and/or low-carbon or net-zero carbon health systems as part of the COP26 Health Programme, as of July, 2022.

Signs of change are also emerging in the energy sector. Although total clean energy generation remains grossly insufficient, record high levels were reached in 2020 (indicator 3.1). Zero-carbon sources accounted for 80% of investment in electricity generation in 2021 (indicator 4.2.1), and renewable energies have reached cost parity with fossil fuel energies. As some of the highest emitting countries attempt to cut their dependence on oil and gas in response to the war in Ukraine and soaring energy prices, many are focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes for a health-centred response. However, increased awareness and commitments should be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

A call to action

After 30 years of UNFCCC negotiations, the Lancet Countdown indicators show that countries and companies continue to make choices that threaten the health and survival of people in every part of the world. As countries devise ways to recover from the coexisting crises, the evidence is unequivocal. At this critical juncture, an immediate, health-centred response can still secure a future in which world populations can not only survive, but thrive.

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bookmark_borderClimate Change: Flesh Eating Bacteria

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The side effects of climate change are far reaching. Lee County, Florida is where hurricane Ian made landfall. Storm surges and subsequent flooding led to a spike in the potentially deadly infections caused by Vibrio vulnificus. The flesh eating species of bacteria is found in warm, brackish water.

One species, Vibrio vulnificus, can cause life-threatening wound infections. Many people with Vibrio vulnificus infection require intensive care or limb amputations, and about 1 in 5 people with this infection die, sometimes within a day or two of becoming ill.

Some Vibrio vulnificus infections lead to necrotizing fasciitis, a severe infection in which the flesh around an open wound dies. Some media reports call this kind of infection “flesh-eating bacteria,” said the CDC.

At least 29 cases and four deaths have been confirmed in Lee County this year as a result of such infections.

“The Florida Department of Health in Lee County is observing an abnormal increase in cases of Vibrio vulnificus infections as a result of exposure to the flood waters and standing waters following Hurricane Ian,” a spokesperson at the county health department said in a statement to CBS News on Monday, which noted that community members should “always be aware of the potential risks associated when exposing open wounds, cuts, or scratches on the skin to warm, brackish, or salt water.”

“Sewage spills, like those caused from Hurricane Ian, may increase bacteria levels,” the statement continued. “As the post storm situation evolves, individuals should take precautions against and infection and illness caused by Vibrio vulnificus.”

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bookmark_borderOcean Warming and Climate Change

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Q: How much of global warming is in the ocean?
A: 90%

Q: How long will it take for the ocean temperature to return to normal?
A: Hundreds of years
“The irreversibility of this ocean warming on centennial timescales creates additional requirements for climate policy, particularly considering the widespread impacts.”

Q: What is my greatest concern?
A: The rate of warming is accelerating… and the warmer the ocean, the less carbon the ocean absorbs… creating a nasty feedback loop.

“Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations cause a positive Earth energy imbalance (EEI), with resulting surplus heat in the climate system increasing ocean heat content (OHC). Unprecedented oceanic warming has been observed since at least the 1950s, reaching record values from 2012–2021. This oceanic warming has been pervasive, spreading from the surface to the abyssal layers, and with the long-term OHC trend accelerating.”

These were the finding reported in the Nature Reviews Earth & Environment report Past and Future Ocean Warming

Impacts and consequences of ocean warming

Observed and projected ocean warming has substantial impacts across major Earth system components and scales (Fig. 1). For example, ocean warming accounts for more than 1/3 of global-mean sea level rise through thermal expansion, and thus dominates regional sea level patterns82,202. Sea level rise, in turn, increases the risks for coastal infrastructures and coastal habitats from salt water intrusion, coastal erosion and flooding in low-lying regions232,233 (Fig. 1b). Ocean warming also decreases ocean density and increases upper-ocean stratification by 5.3% since 1960 (ref.234) (Fig. 1b), affecting the vertical and lateral exchanges of heat, carbon, oxygen, nutrients and other substances. The stratification increase, solubility reduction and circulation changes drive deoxygenation in the ocean interior by ~0.5–3.3% since the 1960s (refs.6,235). By changing sea water buoyancy, ocean warming impacts ocean currents, for example, accelerating the zonally averaged Southern Ocean zonal flow in the upper layer174. Warmer water also reduces the efficiency of oceanic carbon uptake and storage28,236 (Fig. 1b). The compounded effect of each of these impacts, especially following extreme events236,237,238, poses more substantial stress on the environment than their individual effects236 (Fig. 1b), driving, for example, changes in net primary and export production239,240 with socioeconomic impacts on marine fisheries and aquaculture systems241,242. Indeed, it is projected that, driven by multiple stressors, the maximum catch potential of tropical fish stocks in some tropical exclusive economic zones will decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5242.

MHWs offer a strong example, whereby the relentless increase in OHC has direct implications for the frequency, intensity and extent of MHWs and other ‘hot spots’ within the ocean (Fig. 1b). With human-induced global warming and higher ocean heat content, it is inevitable that MHWs become more abundant, extensive and longer-lasting237. The highly anomalous ocean waters, including SSTs and upper OHC, often persist for more than a month243, resulting in large impacts on ocean ecosystems and marine life. Effects from thermal stress causes mass mortality of benthic communities, including coral bleaching, changes in phytoplankton blooms, adverse effects on kelp forests and sea grasses, toxic algal blooms, shifts in species composition and geographical distribution, and decline in fish and fisheries and seabirds105,238. As such, MHWs modify ecosystem assemblages, biodiversity, population extinctions and redistribution of habitat244,245.

One example is the prolonged MHW known as ‘the blob’ in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska from 2014–2016. This event greatly affected the ocean food web, shrinking phytoplankton blooms, which, in turn, diminished copepods, zooplankton and krill, and small fish, leading to the demise of ~1 million birds (notably murres), ~100 million cod and hundreds of humpback whales104,105. A similar unprecedented MHW in the south Tasman Sea in 2015–2016, where SSTs were up to 2.9 °C above normal owing to an ENSO-related alteration of the ITF and East Australian Current119, also had substantial impacts246. Ecosystem impacts ranged from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish (oysters, abalone) and salmon, to mass mortality of wild mollusks, and many out-of-range observations of several fish species. Thus, with continued warming, MHW events and their impacts are expected to worsen: climate models project that the frequency of MHW might increase 50 times by 2081–2100 relative to 1850–1900 under RCP8.5 (ref.247).

Ocean warming also intensifies tropical cyclones248, and associated changing ocean surface currents can indirectly affect pathways of storms139 (Fig. 1b). In August 2017, the Gulf of Mexico became the warmest on record to that point in the summertime. There was a strong link between upper OHC and record high rainfalls of over 60 inches (1,520 mm) over five days and extensive flooding in hurricane Harvey over parts of Texas249. Other processes at the air–sea interface affected by ocean warming include an increase of surface evaporation and rainfall12,13, and an increase in precipitation anomalies tied to ENSO, and associated extreme weather events250,251 (Fig. 1b).

Implications of ocean warming are also widespread across the Earth’s cryosphere195, and have in turn affected the ocean itself 252 (Fig. 1b). Examples include the thinning of floating ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers from basal ice melt21,253, and the retreat and speedup of ice-sheet outlet glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica254 and of tidewater glaciers in South America and in the Arctic255.

Other particular concerns are the potential abrupt changes associated with warming, such as ocean circulation (for example, AMOC)256 and ocean ecosystems6,248. Ocean warming is a key driving element for AMOC changes. The potential for abrupt AMOC collapse as a ‘low-probability, high-impact’ event cannot be ruled out in the future6,247. Each species of marine organisms has an optimal temperature window for functioning; most organisms are therefore vulnerable to warming257. It is projected that most tropical coral reefs will be threatened258.
Summary and future perspectives

In summary, OHC has changed substantially since the 1950s and is projected to continue to do so in the future. In the upper 2,000 m, net global increases of 351.4 ± 59.8  ZJ (0.36 ± 0.06 W m−2) have been observed from 1958 to 2019, with the rate of warming accelerating from ~0.0–0.3 W m−2 in the 1960s to ~0.5–0.7 W m−2 in the 2010s. The pattern of ocean warming has been non-uniform in this historical era, including strong warming in the Atlantic and southern oceans, and overall is dominated by the redistribution of ocean heat by currents. Relative to 2005–2019, future warming is projected to reach 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for SSP1-2.6 and 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for SSP5-8.5 at the end of this century, ~2–4 (SSP1-2.6) to ~4–6 times (SSP5-8.5) the observed 1958–2019 change. On these timescales, added heat has an important role for OHC projections. Moreover, low GHG emissions would be likely to lead to a detectable and lasting reduction in ocean warming rate, with noticeable reductions in climate-change impacts. Indeed, given that ocean warming has already led to pervasive impacts and consequences, monitoring, understanding, adapting to and mitigating ocean warming must continue to be a high priority. Nonetheless, several gaps remain in measuring, estimating and understanding ocean warming.

First, the current ocean observing system needs to be sustained and extended to monitor OHC change at various spatiotemporal scales. The critical question of ‘how adequate is the ocean observing system for monitoring the OHC changes at various timescales?’ is still not fully answered. The international community have cast their eyes toward the future to improve not only the Argo fleet but also other measurement methodologies259,260,261. The ongoing and planned efforts include the maintenance of the current GOOS, and shipboard in situ measurements for calibration, validation and quality control of the Argo array; a drive toward spatial completion, including polar sea-ice zones, marginal seas and complicated channels; increased resolution in critical areas such as boundary currents and coastal areas; incorporation of deeper measurements (for example below 2,000 m); and inclusion of biological and chemical signals, along with temperature and salinity (Deep Argo and BioGeoChemical Argo programmes). The scientific community and funding agencies will need to be mindful of ensuring a continuous and comprehensive measurement network for the world’s ocean — a network that incorporates new technologies as they are developed and retires old technologies that have outlived their usefulness, but with a good understanding of the handoff between technologies.

Second, uncertainty for OHC estimate needs to be better understood and quantified. In addition to data coverage, uncertainty also stems from mapping methods associated with data sampling, instrumental bias correction, choice of climatology, quality-control and other data processing procedures. These error sources are not independent of each other and are likely to lead to biases in current analyses. Thus, uncertainty in OHC estimate is method-dependent and producer-dependent. The contribution of each error source to the total OHC uncertainty is not fully understood, and the error range given by different datasets results in roughly 10-fold differences33. New approaches can be used to better quantify the uncertainty: for example, synthetic data for understanding and evaluating the mapping method, and exploiting ensembles (applying different techniques and forming an ensemble of OHC estimates)59,262,263,264.

Third, syntheses of multisource (direct and indirect) observations and models are recommended to improve OHC estimates and mechanistic understanding. Synthesis of in situ observations with satellite-based observations (sea level altimetry, ocean colour, surface wind stress) and full atmospheric analyses shows the most promise. The indirect datasets can either serve as a cross-evaluation tool or constrain direct estimates, such as closing energy, water and sea level budgets. Attempts show promising results. As a coupled system, the separate impacts of atmospheric, ocean and ice (and other components) dynamics cannot be easily isolated265, and identifying the coupling mechanism driving OHC patterns remains a high research priority. Capabilities for integrating different sources of Earth system observations and information (for example, model-based data assimilation and simulations) for a comprehensive quantification of the energy budgets should be built. For example, the integration of atmospheric and oceanic data leads to a quantification of MHT time series at all latitudes, capable of resolving interannual variability133.

Fourth, the current generation of climate and Earth system models still contain non-negligible uncertainties in representing past and future ocean warming trends202,205,212. For example, there is substantial uncertainty in CMIP6 future projections in the Antarctic margin region, due to biases in simulated stratification158, hydrography around the Antarctic shelf 266, and missing processes, including eddies, tides, ice-shelf cavities, and ocean–ice-shelf interactions. In the tropics, it is known that tropical cyclones mix the ocean through substantial depths. Moreover, they form in hot spots and cool the ocean, yet they are largely absent from global models. In addition, interannual to decadal variability such as ENSO and the IPO remains poorly represented in modern-day climate models, yet they strongly control the pattern and timing of OHC anomalies. As ocean and atmospheric circulation have a key role in shaping the climate response (including ocean warming pattern and OHU efficiency)127,203, evaluating the accuracy of the wind, atmosphere and ocean circulation projections should continue to be a research priority. A continuous process-based understanding of model performance is recommended including the understanding and identification of persistent biases in simulations, especially with respect to the diagnostics for Earth’s major system cycles.

Fifth, understanding of extreme OHC events, their compound effects and past changes in OHC should be strengthened. For example, MHWs have been identified from surface conditions, but subsurface components are also important, and OHC as an indicator offers a way to integrate these aspects. The simultaneous occurrence of ocean warming extremes with other extremes (deoxygenation, acidification) requires special attention236. A more complete understanding of OHC changes in the deep past before the widespread availability of instrumental records is also critical to put the current changes in the context of a longer timescale267. Research on past climate change also helps us to understand how natural drivers and human influence have changed the Earth’s climate system. The difficulty is a lack of full-depth temperature proxy data. Several methods have been developed to derive OHC change back to the past 20,000 years (Last Glacial Maximum), but the uncertainty is large95,268.

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bookmark_borderClimate Change: Increasingly Costly for Americans to Insure Their Homes

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The report by PolicyGenius Home insurance prices are rising even faster than inflation explains how climate change is making homeowners’ insurance more difficult and costly to obtain:

Severe natural disasters
Climate change has increased both the length and severity of the hurricane and wildfire seasons in the U.S., causing many insurance companies to increase rates or stop offering coverage in high-risk areas altogether. When there’s fewer companies doing business in a particular area, the ones left are forced to establish stricter underwriting rules and increase rates on new and existing customers.

Record catastrophe losses
There were 97 natural disasters resulting in $92 billion in insured losses in 2021, according to the Insurance Information Institute (III). This is up from 92 events totaling $74 billion in losses in 2020. As a result, insurers have had to increase rates to account for higher reconstruction costs in affected areas, and to make up for the record losses.

Without decisive action to mitigate climate change, frequent droughts will threaten jobs and agricultural yields in Oklahoma and Texas; extreme heat will devastate an already high proportion of vulnerable residents in Mississippi and Kentucky; and the number of homes with flood risk will increase significantly in Louisiana and Delaware, according to our 2021 Policygenius Best & Worst States for Climate Change Index.

Last October, FEMA revamped its program to more accurately assess flood risk, causing insurance premiums for some coastal properties to rise to $4,000 or $5,000 annually, up from just $700 or $800, Porter from First Street Foundation said.

These hikes may be prohibitively expensive for lower-income families or retirees, especially those who may be living in a property inherited from family, Wright said.

“These family houses have been around forever, and they may not have a mortgage, so flood insurance may not be required,” he said. “But they should have it anyway.”

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bookmark_borderRapidly Increasing Disasters, Costs, and Frequency

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The rapid increase in disaster costs and frequency in the USA is the focus of the report by Climate Central Billion-Dollar Disasters in 2022.

The report states:
* As of this month, the U.S. has experienced 15 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters so far in 2022—already well above the historical average of seven events per year.

* This year’s mounting extreme weather costs reflect an increasing trend in U.S. billion-dollar disasters since 1980.

* The frequency of billion-dollar disasters has also increased. In the last five years (2017-2021), there were just 18 days on average between billion-dollar disasters—compared to 82 days in the 1980s.

* Less time between disasters can mean less time and resources available to respond, recover and prepare for future events.

* The full toll of such events—including the impacts on health—can’t be captured in any one statistic. Without rapid cuts in heat-trapping emissions, this toll is likely to keep rising.

Billion-dollar disasters in 2022

The devastation wrought by Hurricanes Fiona and Ian in Puerto Rico, Florida, and beyond has once again thrust weather and climate disasters to the forefront of the nation’s attention.

According to NOAA, the U.S. has experienced 15 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion each in 2022 (as of September 30). The total cost of these disasters through the end of September was $29.3 billion. Adding up the final costs will take months after the end of the year to complete.

The costly and deadly billion-dollar disasters of 2022 so far have included:

* an April tornado outbreak in the Southeast that spawned 88 tornadoes, including several intense, long tracked tornadoes in Georgia and South Carolina

* a May hail storm that left large swaths of golf-ball sized hail across Minnesota, Wisconsin and South Dakota

* a destructive derecho that produced widespread 70+ mph wind gusts across the lower Midwest

* The costs of Hurricane Fiona and Hurricane Ian are still being accounted for as ongoing recovery continues. Historically, hurricanes and tropical cyclones are the most costly disasters by far, averaging $21 billion per event—more than double the average toll of the next most costly event type (drought).

More Disasters

This year’s mounting extreme weather costs reflect an increasing trend in billion-dollar disasters across the U.S. Each decade since the 1980s has experienced more billion-dollar disasters and higher costs than the decade before.

Over the last five years (2017 to 2021) alone, a total of 89 events caused an estimated 4,557 deaths and over $788 billion dollars in damage. That’s about 35% of the $2.27 trillion in total costs of U.S. billion-dollar disasters from 1980-2021.

2022 is the eighth consecutive year with 10 or more billion-dollar weather and climate-related disasters. The long-term (1980–2021) annual average is about seven billion-dollar disasters per year. And 2022 follows the record-shattering annual totals of 22 and 20 billion-dollar disasters in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

More Often

It’s not just the total number of disasters—but how often they occur—that strains the resources available for communities to manage risks and recover quickly.

Between 1980-2021, the time between billion-dollar disasters in a calendar year has dropped steadily, according to an analysis by Climate Central.

* The average time between billion-dollar disasters has dropped from 82 days in the 1980s to 26 days in the 2010s.

* In the last five years (2017-2021), there have been just 18 days on average between billion-dollar disasters.

* During 2020, there were as little as two weeks on average between the record 22 billion-dollar disasters that year.

Less time between disasters can mean less time and resources available to respond, recover and prepare for future events.

The highest costs have resulted when multiple disasters occur in the same region and season, straining local resources—as during the Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2005 and 2017. According to NOAA, multiple billion-dollar tropical cyclones during these two seasons resulted in more than 5,000 lives lost and over $520 billion in combined damages.
The full toll of disasters

These staggering figures primarily reflect direct impacts on assets (including damage to homes, crops, and critical infrastructure), and therefore don’t reflect the full toll of disasters, including on public health—and especially mental health. According to the American Public Health Association, up to 54% of adults and 45% of children suffer depression after a disaster.

Weather and climate-related disasters can also result in widespread power outages (as occurred in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Fiona), displacement, and limited or unsafe food and water supplies, as well as loss of cultural heritage, biodiversity and habitats.

These figures also don’t convey the disproportionate impacts of disasters on people in poverty or the need for equitable allocation of federal disaster assistance in accordance with social vulnerability.
Disasters in a warming world

According to the latest IPCC reports, it is an “established fact” that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have “led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial times.” And these trends are projected to continue with additional warming.

The ambition of the Paris Agreement—to limit warming to 2.7°F (1.5 °C) by 2100—is very likely to be exceeded by the mid-2040s at the latest without rapid emissions cuts. In November, nearly 200 nations will convene at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) to accelerate climate action. Without such progress, we can expect even more frequent and intense billion-dollar disasters in the future.

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bookmark_border10% of Canadian Homes Uninsurable Due to Extreme Weather and the Climate Crisis

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The Guardian reports The uninsurables: how storms and rising seas are making coastlines unliveable.

“In Canada, the number of uninsurable homes has reached 10%, according to industry figures. The Magdalen archipelago is losing half a metre each year to erosion, roads have fallen into the sea and the sand dunes that once offered protection from squalls are disappearing faster than they can be saved, but it is not just there. Most of Canada’s major cities are built on the frontlines of a changing climate – along rivers and coastlines or on flood plains.”

“Over the past 15 years, insurance claims from severe weather events in Canada – windstorms, flooding, wildfire and drought – have more than quadrupled. Seven of the country’s costliest disasters occurred in the last decade. Insurers now expect to disburse C$2bn (£1.3bn) in disaster-related payouts annually, with costs only expected to rise.”

“A federally run fund, meant to help communities build disaster-resilient infrastructure, is quickly running out of money years before it expires at the end of the decade. It has already received far more requests than it can pay for, and despite the federal government repeatedly topping it up, more than half of the money has been spent.”

“Without any sort of concerted effort or gameplan, that figure will only grow. We’re continuing to build in harm’s way, largely on water, because that’s where people love to be. And the modelling shows that these storm events are just going to become more frequent and more intense in the years ahead,” says Craig Stewart, vice-president of the IBC’s climate change and federal issues portfolio. “The risk is growing. And so far, our efforts at risk reduction have been terrible.”

“The private market, on its own, cannot handle the level of risk that’s escalating in the system without some sort of formal government backstop or direct participation.”

In the US, Florida has blocked insurers from withdrawing from the market for at least two months after Hurricane Ian. Officials in the US have also warned residents about the dangers of rebuilding in areas likely to suffer weather-related disasters.

In November 2021, a powerful “atmospheric river”, a plume of water-laden air, led to widespread flooding in the province of British Columbia. Highways and bridges were washed away and thousands of homes – built on an old lake bed that was a known flood plain – were submerged in turbid waters. The damage cost insurers nearly C$675m – with billions more in uninsured costs having to be borne by residents and government.

The floods also hit the town of Lytton, British Columbia, which a few months earlier had been the site of scorching temperatures before it was all but destroyed by a wildfire. In the aftermath, the uncertainty of how to rebuild – or whether to rebuild – has become a flashpoint.

“There was conflict between people who wanted to rebuild Lytton better, and those who were traumatised by the fire and they wanted to put their lives back together as quickly as possible without any change,” says Porter. “They didn’t want to be told what to do. They didn’t want outsiders coming in and telling them you must change your life in such a way.”

Governments are bracing for the mounting costs from extreme weather to upend life in cities. A recent report warned that floods and droughts could cost the global economy US$5.6tn by 2050.

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bookmark_borderThe Collapse of Nature

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The World Wildlife Foundation issued a report LIVING PLANET REPORT 2022 showing a near 70% decline in wildlife.

* Monitored populations of vertebrates (mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish) have seen a devastating 69% drop on average since 1970

* Freshwater species populations have suffered an 83% fall

* The report’s Living Planet Index shows that there is no time to lose in securing a nature-positive society

* Deforestation, human exploitation, pollution, and climate change were the biggest drivers of the loss

Many scientists believe we are living through the sixth mass extinction – the largest loss of life on Earth since the time of the dinosaurs – and that it is being driven by humans.

Tanya Steele, chief executive at WWF-UK, said: “This report tells us that the worst declines are in the Latin America region, home to the world’s largest rainforest, the Amazon. Deforestation rates there are accelerating, stripping this unique ecosystem not just of trees but of the wildlife that depends on them and of the Amazon’s ability to act as one of our greatest allies in the fight against climate change.”

“Despite the science, the catastrophic projections, the impassioned speeches and promises, the burning forests, submerged countries, record temperatures and displaced millions, world leaders continue to sit back and watch our world burn in front of our eyes,” said Steele. “The climate and nature crises, their fates entwined, are not some faraway threat our grandchildren will solve with still-to-be-discovered technology.”

She added: “We need our new prime minister to show the UK is serious about helping people, nature and the economy to thrive, by ensuring every promise for our world is kept. Falling short will be neither forgotten nor forgiven.”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderHeat Waves Make Regions Uninhabitable Within Decades

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The U.N. humanitarian aid agency OCHA and the International Federation of Red Cross report Extreme heat: Preparing for the heatwaves of the future (October 2022) says large parts of the earth will become uninhabitable in the near future.

“We don’t want to dramatize it, but clearly the data shows that it does lead towards a very bleak future,” said IFRC secretary-general Jagan Chapagain.

There are clear limits beyond which people exposed to extreme heat and humidity cannot survive. There are also likely to be levels of extreme heat beyond which societies may find it practically impossible to deliver effective adaptation for all. On current trajectories, heat waves could meet and exceed these physiological and social limits in the coming decades, including in regions such as the Sahel and south and southwest Asia.

Projected future death rates from extreme heat are staggeringly high — comparable in magnitude by the end of the century to all cancers or all infectious diseases — and staggeringly unequal.

If emissions of the greenhouse gases which cause climate change are not aggressively reduced, the world will face “previously unimaginable levels of extreme heat”.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment