Introduction: Bounded — But Potentially Extreme Q: What is the most likely future climate scenario? A: Accelerating climate disruption driven by interacting feedback loops. The good news is that physics places limits on the absolute worst-case outcomes. Earth is not expected to undergo a runaway Venus-style greenhouse effect in which oceans boil away and the […]
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The Future: Feedback Loops and the Limits of Human Adaptation
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Oil Forecast: Record Highs Before Structural Collapse?
What is likely to happen to the price of oil? While the future is uncertain, the highest-probability outcome may be a period of the highest oil prices in history followed by some of the lowest sustained prices in modern history. In the short term, geopolitical instability, supply disruptions, war risk, and constrained global production capacity […]
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Asymmetric Warfare: The Drone Revolution Redefining the Battlefield
Conflicts across the Middle East are increasingly highlighting a shift in modern warfare: adaptability and low-cost innovation are outpacing traditional military dominance. One of the clearest examples is the rapid evolution of drone technology, where inexpensive systems are delivering outsized strategic impact. The Rise of Low-Cost, High-Impact Drones Relatively simple, mass-produced drones—such as the Shahed-136—have […]
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The Accidental Climate Accelerator: How Global Conflict and China’s Solar Surge Are Reshaping Energy Faster Than Policy
The good news is that, regardless of intent or framing, Trump’s recent policy choices have significantly accelerated investment and deployment in green energy—arguably contributing, in an unintended way, to one of the fastest transitions in energy technology in modern history. Despite the short-term negative impacts of current geopolitical tensions and energy policy disruptions on climate […]
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Gambling on War (Crimes) Using Insider Information
Recent Arrest: Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van DykeOn April 23, 2026, U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for allegedly using classified information to profit from online bets. This is the first known federal insider trading case involving a prediction market platform. Key Details of the Case Details of the BetsMaster Sgt. […]
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War Update: Escalation, Broken Negotiations, and the Closure of the Strait
The latest developments mark a sharp and consequential turn in the conflict. The United States has declared the war “won” while simultaneously abandoning ongoing peace negotiations. At the same time, officials have justified continued escalation by asserting that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon—an assertion that remains highly contested. A Pattern of Negotiation and Breakdown […]
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Prediction Markets, Oil Futures, and the 6PM Inflection Point
I’ve become increasingly interested in prediction markets—especially how they behave ahead of major geopolitical events. There have been multiple documented instances where unusual trades appeared to anticipate policy decisions tied to the White House, raising persistent questions about information asymmetry and whether some participants are trading on insights others simply don’t have. Tonight at 6:00 […]
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The Greatest Economic Lies of All Time: War, Tariffs, and the Hidden Tax on Consumers
Perhaps the two greatest economic misconceptions of the 21st century are: Both claims are not just misleading—they fundamentally distort how the global economy actually functions. The Tariff Illusion: Who Really Pays? The tariff argument is the easier of the two to understand. Tariffs are taxes on imports. In practice, the importer—the domestic company bringing goods […]
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War Update: A Failed Strategy and a Shifting Balance of Power
The United States’ attempt to reshape the Middle East through military force and coercion has backfired. Rather than weakening Iran, the conflict has arguably strengthened its geopolitical position and expanded its influence across the region. Before the recent escalation, Iran was widely viewed as a regional power with significant influence in the Middle East, but […]
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Economic Update: Uncertainty and Pain
The latest economic data paints a troubling picture for consumers and the broader economy. Inflation accelerated again while personal income declined, creating what is effectively the worst of both worlds for households already struggling with high costs. When wages and personal income fail to keep pace with inflation, families are forced to make difficult choices. […]
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