Macro-Welfare Frameworks vs. Economic Justice Valuation in the United States Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee I. Introduction A. Research Problem Climate change imposes large and growing costs on the United States, yet there is still no centralized national ledger that captures the full burden in a unified way. Conventional economic indicators—especially GDP, insured losses, and […]
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Quantifying the Climate Tax: The Full Ledger of Harm
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The Welfare Cost of Climate Change in the United States
A Per-Capita Estimate of Mortality, Morbidity, and Life-Expectancy Loss in 2025 Daniel Brouse and Siddhartha MukherjeeJune 2026 Abstract: Climate Welfare Accounting Framework (CWAF) Climate change is often discussed in terms of physical damages, disaster losses, or aggregate effects on GDP. Those measures are important, but they understate a central reality: climate change is also a […]
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The Acceleration of U.S. Climate-Linked Economic Burden (1890–2040 Projection)
by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee This paper estimates the long-run evolution of U.S. climate-related economic burdens and finds strong evidence of nonlinear acceleration. Using a reconstructed baseline in the late 19th century and an integrated 2025 estimate of approximately $1.5 trillion annually in climate-attributable economic losses, we estimate that the effective doubling time of […]
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The 2025 Cost of Climate Change in the United States
Estimating the Per-Person Economic Burden of Extreme Weather, Insurance Destabilization, Climate Inflation, and Health Impacts A reasonable all-in estimate for the 2025 economic burden of climate change on the United States is about $1.5 trillion, or roughly $4,400 per person. For a family of four, the implied annual burden is roughly $17,600. That burden extends […]
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A Coupled Framework for Compression of Climate Impact Doubling Times
Climate Jerk in Socio-Ecological Systems By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Conventional climate-risk analysis often treats impacts as the downstream consequence of physical hazard intensification alone. In this framing, rising losses, displacement, mortality, infrastructure disruption, and systemic instability are interpreted primarily as a function of increasing temperature, precipitation extremes, sea-level rise, or other physical […]
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Climate Displacement and Nonlinear Acceleration: When Extreme Weather Becomes a Systemic Driver of Human Mobility
By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Climate displacement is often framed as a humanitarian consequence of storms, floods, droughts, wildfires, and sea-level rise. That framing is correct but incomplete. The deeper problem is that climate displacement is increasingly emerging from a nonlinear Earth system in which multiple climate hazards are intensifying simultaneously and interacting […]
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Observational Evidence for Climate Jerk: Multidisciplinary Indicators of Accelerating Climate Acceleration
by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Climate change is commonly described in terms of warming rates and, more recently, climate acceleration. However, a growing body of observational evidence suggests that many climate indicators are exhibiting not merely acceleration, but acceleration of acceleration—a phenomenon known in physics as jerk, the third derivative of change with […]
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Beyond Average Warming: Temperature Extremes, Nighttime Heat, and the Emergence of Climate Jerk
Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Global mean surface temperature is the most widely cited metric of climate change. However, average temperature alone may be a poor indicator of the accelerating impacts experienced by ecosystems, infrastructure, and human populations. Because averages compress information, they can obscure critical changes occurring in the tails of temperature distributions, […]
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Trump Announces Prospective Iran Deal, But Questions Remain
President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran have reached what he described as a “great settlement” that could bring an end to the current conflict and lead to a formal agreement as early as this weekend. According to Trump, the breakthrough came after intense negotiations and recent military pressure. He characterized the […]
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Inflation Surges to Three-Year High as Oil Shock Ripples Through the Economy
Rising Energy Costs Push Inflation Higher U.S. consumer inflation accelerated sharply in May 2026, reaching its highest level in three years according to the latest data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the government’s primary measure of inflation, rose 4.2% over the previous twelve months, up from 3.8% […]
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