bookmark_borderNew Jersey Requires Climate Change Risk Analysis for Building Permits

The New York Times reports, “With 130-Mile Coast, New Jersey Marks a First in Climate Change Fight

New Jersey will become the first state to require that builders take into account the impact of climate change, including rising sea levels, in order to win government approval for projects, Gov. Philip D. Murphy announced on Monday.

The move by Mr. Murphy, a Democrat, is part of a widening effort by states to use regulations to address worsening climate conditions and to aggressively counteract the Trump administration’s push to roll back environmental regulations.

“This is not abstract for us,” Mr. Murphy said in an interview. “This is real. The dangers are there.”

New Jersey’s initiative is believed to be the broadest, and most specific, attempt to leverage land-use rules to control where and what developers can build, and to limit the volume of emissions that are spewed into the air.

“It gives us the ability to say no, or to say, ‘You have to do it differently,’” said Kathleen Frangione, the governor’s chief policy adviser.

Mr. Murphy, through executive order, will require the state Department of Environmental Protection to begin the process of drafting new regulations to be adopted by January 2022. The changes do not require legislative approval, but could face legal and political challenges.

Do you need flood insurance?

  • Homeowners insurance does NOT cover flooding
  • Flood insurance is obtained through the government’s flood insurance program
  • Flood insurance does not cover the basement of a house
  • Flood insurance covers a lifetime maximum of $250,000 in coverage
    This means if you make a claim for $150,000 the maximum coverage for the life of the property drops to $100,000.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderAssessing Climate Risk

The LA Times reports,”The municipal bond market looks to satellites to help assess climate risk”

The $3.8-trillion municipal-bond market has found a new tool in its effort to understand the effects of climate change: satellites orbiting Earth.

Assessing climate risks is a particularly vexing problem given that U.S. state and local governments tend to give investors information that’s too little or just too late. But the use of geospatial data and information from sources such as Google Earth could help municipal bond investors evaluate and price the risks posed from a warming climate, rising sea levels and natural disasters.

“Largely, finance lives in columns and rows in Excel spreadsheets — climate change is not a row-and-column exercise,” said Chris Goolgasian, director of climate research at Wellington Management, a Boston asset manager that uses mapping technology to consider the effects of climate change on investments including municipal bonds. “It’s much more powerful to see it visualized.”

bookmark_borderAcid Reflux Making Crabs Crabby

The level of CO2 is increasing due to human activity. A percentage of the CO2 is absorbed into the ocean. Increased CO2 increases the acidity.

CNN reports, The Pacific Ocean is so acidic that it’s dissolving Dungeness crabs’ shells. “The Pacific Ocean is becoming more acidic, and the cash-crabs that live in its coastal waters are some of its first inhabitants to feel its effects.

The Dungeness crab is vital to commercial fisheries in the Pacific Northwest, but lower pH levels in its habitat are dissolving parts of its shell and damaging its sensory organs, a new study found.
Their injuries could impact coastal economies and forebode the obstacles in a changing sea. And while the results aren’t unexpected, the study’s authors said the damage to the crabs is premature: The acidity wasn’t predicted to damage the crabs this quickly.

“If the crabs are affected already, we really need to make sure we pay much more attention to various components of the food chain before it is too late,” said study lead author Nina Bednarsek, a senior scientist with the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project.”

The reporting is based on a study by Science of The Total Environment, Exoskeleton dissolution with mechanoreceptor damage in larval Dungeness crab related to severity of present-day ocean acidification vertical gradients.

* Coastal habitats with the steepest ocean acidification gradients are most detrimental for larval Dungeness crabs.
* Severe carapace dissolution was observed in larval Dungeness crabs along the US west coast.
* Mechanoreceptors with important sensory and behavioral functions were destabilized.
* Dissolution is negatively related to the growth, demonstrating energetic trade-offs.
* 10% dissolution increase over the last two decades estimated due to atmospheric CO2.

bookmark_borderSea-level Rise: Not Just for the Coasts Anymore

“Their results suggest that coastal regions will be far from the only ones affected by sea-level rise. A huge number of counties far from the coast—some deep in the US interior—will see dramatic changes in the number of people relocating there.”

ARS Technica reports, As sea levels rise, little of the United States will be unaffected. “If you’re not near the coast, get ready for lots of new neighbors.

The United States is rich enough, industrialized enough, and far enough from the tropics that the rising temperatures of our changing climate aren’t going to make any place uninhabitable. But a side effect of those rising temperatures—rising oceans—most certainly will. Already, an ever-growing list of places is facing what’s called “nuisance flooding,” in which even a high tide can leave streets underwater. Major storms just make matters worse. And, by the end of this century, the expected rise of the oceans may be over five times what we saw last century.

As a result of this, many areas of the country will simply become uninhabitable, lost to the sea. Well over a third of the United States’ population lives in counties that are currently on the coast, and over 10 million currently live on land that will be lost to a sea-level rise of 1.8 meters. They’ll have to go somewhere—and people who might otherwise move to the coast will have to find some place else to relocate. All of which will change the dynamics of the typical relocation of people within the US.

A new study released in PLOS ONE tries to estimate what that will mean for the rest of the country. Their results suggest that coastal regions will be far from the only ones affected by sea-level rise. A huge number of counties far from the coast—some deep in the US interior—will see dramatic changes in the number of people relocating there.”

PLOS ONE reports, Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise. “Sea level rise in the United States will lead to large scale migration in the future. We propose a framework to examine future climate migration patterns using models of human migration. Our framework requires that we distinguish between historical versus climate driven migration and recognizes how the impacts of climate change can extend beyond the affected area. We apply our framework to simulate how migration, driven by sea level rise, differs from baseline migration patterns. Specifically, we couple a sea level rise model with a data-driven model of human migration and future population projections, creating a generalized joint model of climate driven migration that can be used to simulate population distributions under potential future sea level rise scenarios. The results of our case study suggest that the effects of sea level rise are pervasive, expanding beyond coastal areas via increased migration, and disproportionately affecting some areas of the United States.”

Areas Impacted by Rising Sea Level
Areas Impacted by Rising Sea Level

Do you need flood insurance?

  • Homeowners insurance does NOT cover flooding
  • Flood insurance is obtained through the government’s flood insurance program
  • Flood insurance does not cover the basement of a house
  • Flood insurance covers a lifetime maximum of $250,000 in coverage
    This means if you make a claim for $150,000 the maximum coverage for the life of the property drops to $100,000.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderNeed to Prepare for Millions of Climate Change Refugees

World needs to prepare for ‘millions’ of climate displaced: U.N.
January 21, 2020

Reuters reported:
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) – The world needs to prepare for millions of people being driven from their homes by the impact of climate change, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Speaking to Reuters at the World Economic Forum, Filippo Grandi said a U.N. ruling this week meant those fleeing as a result of climate change deserved international protection, and that it had broad implications for governments.

The U.N. Human Rights Committee made the landmark ruling on Monday in relation to Ioane Teitiota, from the Pacific nation of Kiribati, who brought a case against New Zealand after authorities denied his claim of asylum.

“The ruling says if you have an immediate threat to your life due to climate change, due to the climate emergency, and if you cross the border and go to another country, you should not be sent back, because you would be at risk of your life, just like in a war or in a situation of persecution,” Grandi said.

“We must be prepared for a large surge of people moving against their will,” he said. “I wouldn’t venture to talk about specific numbers, it’s too speculative, but certainly we’re talking about millions here.”

Potential drivers include wildfires like those seen in Australia, rising sea levels affecting low-lying islands, the destruction of crops and livestock in sub-Saharan Africa and floods worldwide, not least in parts of the developed world.

Whereas for most of its 70 years UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, has worked to assist those fleeing poorer countries as a result of conflict, climate change is more indiscriminate.

“It is further proof that refugee movements and the broader issue of migration of populations … is a global challenge that cannot be confined to a few countries,” said Grandi.
70 MILLION DISPLACED

Yet the convention relating to the status of refugees, signed in 1951, made no provision for climate change as a reason for people to flee their country and seek asylum elsewhere. As climate impacts grow, legal questions become more complicated.

UNHCR, whose budget has risen from $1 billion a year in the early 1990s to $8.6 billion in 2019 as conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria have forced civilians to flee, now assists more than 70 million forcibly displaced people.

Turkey is the largest recipient, with more than 4 million refugees and asylum seekers, the vast majority from Syria. That has strained Turkey’s public finances and led President Tayyip Erdogan to demand more assistance from Europe.

Last November, Erdogan threatened to open the door for Syrian refugees to head to Europe unless the European Union stepped up, and he is now calling for the “resettlement” of up to 1 million Syrians in the north of their homeland.
Slideshow (12 Images)

Grandi said European governments needed to think hard about solutions to the migrant crisis, which has affected them since 2015, but also show more understanding of Turkey’s situation.

“We must recognise that, for the past several years (Turkey)has been hosting the largest refugee population in the world,” he said. “There’s a lot of political talk. I concentrate on the substance of this, which is ‘let’s strengthen Turkey’s ability to host refugees until they can go back safely, voluntarily to their countries’.”

More on Climate Change Refugees

More on Climate Change

bookmark_borderWorst Economy Ever: United States Financial Health in 2020 Hindsight

by Daniel Brouse
Economist, Pi Gamma Mu

January 22, 2020

The U.S. economy is the worst in history. There are several measures for the health of an economy. One of the best is the “debt to GDP” ratio. National debt divided by the nation’s gross domestic product = debt to GDP ratio.

During 2019, the nation’s debt to GDP ratio reached a record high (when the Fed’s balance sheet is included.)

Calculation:
23.177 trillion $ 2019 Debt
3.8 trillion $ assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet
_______________
26.977‬ trillion
/ divided by the GDP
21.439 trillion
_______________
125.83% debt to GDP ratio

One hundred and twenty-five percent is the highest debt to GDP ratio in the history of the United States of America.

When an individual borrows money, their debt to income ratio usually can not exceed 36%. The debt to income ratio is a reliable indicator of the ability to repay a loan. Exceptions are made for young borrowers with likely prospects of wage growth. The growth rate of the US GDP has been flat and is projected to go lower.

When a nation borrows money, the debt to GDP ratio also determines the ability to repay the debt. Therefore, it is safe to say the U.S. is in the worst economic position ever.

It’s not really a good idea to compare the debt to GDP ratio to other countries or periods in time. A better rule of thumb would be a ratio under 40% and preferably close to 0; however, for those that are curious:
Denmark — 35%
Switzerland — 33%
Australia — 47%
China — 47%
UK — 87%
Mozambique — 119%

The USA historically has had a ratio in the 30% range from 1967 through 1984. The last time the ratio came close to today’s 125% was in 1945 – 1947 when the ratio hit 119% due to the effects of WWII, the recession, and President Truman’s economic policies.

Why the Fed’s Balance Sheet is Important
It is very important to include the assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in the calculation. The reason being — the Fed should not have any assets on its balance sheet. When the Fed buys assets from the Treasury, the government is in fact borrowing the money from itself. The government is “printing” money. The government is competing with the private sector to lend the government money. Interest rates are artificially low due to the lack of competition. Borrowing more money to repay debt is unsustainable.

The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO)
The GAO has the best accountants in the world. The GAO says: “The Comptroller General testified before Congress about the government’s unsustainable fiscal outlook, the need for a long-term plan to address growing debt, and other aspects of the nation’s fiscal health.” The comptroller concludes the continued growth of public debt is unsustainable. “This statement is based on our prior work on the High Risk List; the fragmentation, overlap, and duplication annual report; natural disasters and climate change; and other topics.”

Worst Economy Ever
The U.S. economy is currently the worst in the nation’s history. At no time in history has our debt + Fed assets / GDP = 125%. The economy is unsustainable.

bookmark_borderClimate Change and Disaster Displacement

The UN Refugee Agency reports:

Research indicates that the Earth’s climate is changing at a rate that has exceeded most scientific forecasts. Some families and communities have already started to suffer from disasters and the consequences of climate change, which has forced them to leave their homes in search of a new beginning.

UNHCR recognizes that the consequences of climate change are extremely serious, including for refugees and other people of concern. The Global Compact on Refugees, adopted by an overwhelming majority in the UN General Assembly in December 2018, directly addresses this growing concern. It recognizes that ‘climate, environmental degradation and natural disasters increasingly interact with the drivers of refugee movements.’

The impacts of climate change are numerous. Limited natural resources, such as drinking water, are likely to become even scarcer in many parts of the world. Crops and livestock struggle to survive in climate change ‘hotspots’ where conditions become too hot and dry, or too cold and wet, threatening livelihoods and exacerbating food insecurity.

People are trying to adapt to the changing environment, but many are being forcibly displaced from their homes by the effects of climate change and disasters, or are relocating in order to survive. New displacement patterns, and competition over depleted natural resources can spark conflict between communities or compound pre-existing vulnerabilities.

People displaced across borders in the context of climate change and disasters may in some circumstances be in need of international protection. Refugee law therefore has an important role to play in this area. UNHCR is providing protection and assistance for many people forcibly displaced by the effects of climate change and disasters, among other drivers, and is working to increase their resilience.
UNHCR’s role in addressing climate change and disaster-related displacement

UNHCR’s work on climate change and disaster displacement covers four main areas:

Legal advice, guidance and the development of norms to support the enhanced protection of the rights of people displaced in the context of disasters and climate change.
Promoting policy coherence to ensure that issues of disaster displacement are effectively mainstreamed across relevant areas.
Research to fill gaps that underpin this operational and policy work.
Field-based activities to address internal and cross-border disaster displacement; to reduce the environmental impact of refugee settlements and ensure sustainable responses to displacement; risk reduction activities and others which may contribute to efforts to avert, minimize and address displacement.

Through its participation in global policy processes, UNHCR has played a pioneering role in raising awareness about climate change as a driver of displacement and the need to address protection for people displaced in the context of disasters.

In 2018, extreme weather events such as severe drought in Afghanistan, Tropical Cyclone Gita in Samoa, and flooding in the Philippines, resulted in acute humanitarian needs. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, there were 18.8 million new disaster-related internal displacements recorded in 2017. Most disaster displacement linked to natural hazards and the impacts of climate change is internal, with those affected remaining within their national borders. However, displacement across borders also occurs, and may be interrelated with situations of conflict or violence.

In all cases, people displaced by disasters have needs and vulnerabilities that must be addressed. People already displaced for reasons other than disasters linked to natural hazards – including refugees, stateless people, and the internally displaced – often reside in climate change ‘hotspots’ and may be exposed to secondary displacement. Moreover, similar impacts on their home areas can inhibit their ability to safely return.

UNHCR plays a leading role in the Global Protection Cluster for protecting and assisting people who are forcibly displaced inside their countries and cannot return safely home. When called upon to intervene, can deploy emergency teams and provide concrete support in terms of registration, documentation, family reunification and the provision of shelter, basic hygiene and nutrition. UNHCR is also a standing invitee to the Steering Group of the Platform on Disaster Displacement, in follow-up to the Nansen Initiative on cross-border disaster displacement. The Platform on Disaster Displacement is a State-led initiative focused on the implementation of the Nansen Initiative’s Protection Agenda.

UNHCR has developed planned relocation guidance together with Georgetown University and other partners for the relocation of at-risk populations to protect them from disasters and the impacts of climate change while respecting their human rights. Furthermore, UNHCR has provided technical support to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process since 2008, including through the Advisory Group on Human Mobility and Climate Change, and in its role as a member of the Task Force on Displacement (TFD) mandated by the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage.

In 2018, in the implementation of the Workplan of the TFD, UNHCR commissioned a mapping on existing international and regional guidance and tools on averting, minimizing, addressing and facilitating durable solutions to displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change and contributed to the development of recommendations for integrated approaches to avert, minimize and address displacement linked to the adverse effects of climate change that were presented at COP24 and adopted by Parties. UNHCR remains committed to continue providing technical support to Parties in implementing the Paris Agreement, and to actively participating in the TFD under its renewed mandate.
‘Climate refugees’?

The term “climate refugee” is often used in the media and other discussions. However, this phrase can cause confusion, as it does not exist in international law. A “refugee” is defined as a person who has crossed an international border “owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion” (1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees). In some contexts, the definition extends to persons fleeing “events seriously disturbing public order” (1969 OAU Convention; 1984 Cartagena Declaration). Climate change affects people inside their own countries, and typically creates internal displacement before it reaches a level where it displaces people across borders. There may be situations where the refugee criteria of the 1951 Convention or broader refugee criteria of regional refugee law frameworks may apply, for example if drought-related famine is linked to situations of armed conflict and violence – an area known as “nexus dynamics.” Regardless, the term “climate refugee” is not endorsed by UNHCR, and it is more accurate to refer to “persons displaced in the context of disasters and climate change.”
Nexus Dynamics

Recent history has borne witness to cross border movements in situations where conflict or violence has interacted with disaster or adverse effects of climate change. Yet, research on how destination States have used refugee law to provide international protection in these complex situations has traditionally been limited. To address this knowledge gap and to identify policy and practical solutions to strengthen the implementation of refugee law based international protection when cross-border movements occur in the context of nexus dynamics, in 2018 UNHCR undertook the study: In Harm’s Way: International protection in the context of nexus dynamics between conflict or violence and disaster or climate change.

It examines the protection provided to people displaced across borders by countries of destination in specific situations in the Horn of Africa and the Americas, where conflict or violence interacted with climate change or disaster. A brief overview of the study, which sets out the scope, key observations and recommendations, is available in English, French and Spanish. The study’s findings build on UNHCR’s Legal considerations on refugee protection for people fleeing conflict and famine affected countries and indicate that refugee law frameworks can be applicable in situations where nexus dynamics are present. Nevertheless, there are still data and knowledge gaps in this area that need to be addressed.

bookmark_borderClimate Change Refugees Seeking Asylum

A United Nations panel has ruled refugees fleeing the effects of the climate crisis cannot be forced to return home by their adoptive countries:

[CNN Report: Climate refugees cannot be sent back home, United Nations rules in landmark decision]

Factual background
2.1 The author claims that the effects of climate change and sea level rise forced him to migrate from the island of Tarawa in the Republic of Kiribati to New Zealand. The situation in Tarawa has become increasingly unstable and precarious due to sea level rise caused by global warming. Fresh water has become scarce because of saltwater contamination and overcrowding on Tarawa. Attempts to combat sea level rise have largely been ineffective. Inhabitable land on Tarawa has eroded, resulting in a housing crisis and land disputes that have caused numerous fatalities. Kiribati has thus become an untenable and violent environment for the author and his family.
2.2 The author has sought asylum in New Zealand, but the Immigration and Protection Tribunal issued a negative decision concerning his claim for asylum. Still, the Tribunal did not exclude the possibility that environmental degradation could “create pathways into the Refugee Convention or protected person jurisdiction.” The Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court each denied the author’s subsequent appeals concerning the same matter.
2.3 In its decision of 25 June 2013, the Immigration and Protection Tribunal first examined in detail the 2007 National Adaptation Programme of Action filed by the Republic of Kiribati under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. As described by the Tribunal, the National Adaptation Programme of Action stated that the great majority of the population had subsistence livelihoods that were heavily dependent on environmental resources. The Programme of Action described a range of issues that had arisen from the existing and projected effects of climate change-related events and processes. Among the effects of climate change, coastal erosion and accretion were most likely to affect housing, land and property. In South Tarawa, 60 sea walls were in place by 2005. However, storm surges and high spring tides had caused flooding of residential areas, forcing some to relocate. Attempts were being made to diversify crop production, for example, through the production of cash crops. Most nutritious crops were available and could be prepared into long-term preserved food. However, the health of the population had generally deteriorated, as indicated by vitamin A deficiencies, malnutrition, fish poisoning, and other ailments reflecting the situation of food insecurity.
2.4 The Tribunal next considered the expert testimony of John Corcoran, a doctoral candidate researching climate change in Kiribati at the University of Waikato in New Zealand. Mr. Corcoran, a national of the Republic of Kiribati, characterized the country as a society in crisis owing to climate change and population pressure. The islands constituting the country rose no more than three meters above sea level. Soils were generally poor and infertile. Unemployment was high. The population of South Tarawa had increased from 1,641 in 1947 to 50,000 in 2010. In Tarawa and certain other islands of Kiribati, the scarcity of land engendered social tensions. Violent fights often broke out and sometimes led to injuries and deaths. Rapid population growth and urbanization in South Tarawa had compromised the supply of fresh water. No island in Kiribati had surface fresh water. As a result of the increase in population, the rate of water extraction from the freshwater lens exceeded the rate of its replenishment through the percolation of rainwater. Waste contamination from Tarawa had contributed to pollution of the freshwater lens, rendering some of the five underground water reserves unfit for the supply of fresh drinking water. Increasingly intense storms occurred, submerging the land in certain places on South Tarawa and rendering it uninhabitable. This often occurred three or four times a month. Rising sea levels caused more regular and frequent breaches of sea walls, which were in any case not high enough to prevent saltwater intrusion over the land during high tides. Household wells in high-density housing areas could not be used as a water supply due to increasing contamination, and rainwater catchment systems were only available in homes constructed of permanent materials. Thus, approximately 60 per cent of the population of South Tarawa obtained fresh water exclusively from rationed supplies provided by the public utilities board. Trash washed onto the beach posed health hazards for local landowners. According to Mr. Corcoran, the Government of the Republic of Kiribati was taking some steps to address this. It had a Programme of Action in place to help communities adapt to climate change.1
2.5 Next, the Tribunal examined the testimony given by the author during the appeal hearing. According to the Tribunal’s description of the testimony, the author was born on an islet situated north of Tarawa, a journey of several days away by boat. He completed secondary school and obtained employment for a trading company, which ended in the mid-1990s when the company folded. He had not been able to find work since then. In 2002, the author and his wife moved in with his wife’s family in a traditionally-constructed dwelling in a village in Tarawa. The dwelling was situated on ground level and had electricity and water but no sewage services. Beginning in the late 1990s, life progressively became more insecure on Tarawa because of sea level rise. Tarawa became overcrowded due to the influx of residents from outlying islands, because most government services, including those of the main hospital, were provided on Tarawa. As villages became overcrowded, tensions arose. Also beginning in the late 1990s, Tarawa suffered significant amounts of coastal erosion during high tides. The land surface regularly flooded, and land could be submerged up to knee-deep during king tides. Transportation was affected, since the main causeway separating north and south Tarawa was often flooded. The situation caused significant hardship for the author and other inhabitants of Tarawa. The wells on which they depended became salinized. Salt water was deposited on the ground, resulting in the destruction of crops. The land was stripped of vegetation in many places, and crops were difficult to grow. The author’s family relied largely on subsistence fishing and agriculture. The sea wall in front of the author’s in-laws’ home was often damaged and required constant repair. The author and his wife left the Republic of Kiribati for New Zealand because they wished to have children, and had received information from news sources that there would be no future for life in their country. The author accepted that his experiences were common to people throughout the Republic of Kiribati. He believed that the country’s Government was powerless to stop the sea level rise. Internal relocation was not possible. The author’s parents lived on Tarawa but faced similar environmental and population pressures.
2.6 The Tribunal also considered the oral testimony of the author’s wife. According to the Tribunal, she testified that she was born in the late 1970s on Arorae Island, in the south of the Republic of Kiribati. In 2000, her family moved to Tarawa. She married the author in 2002. Her parents’ house there was situated on the edge of a sea wall. The house and land were not owned by her parents but belonged to a neighbor. Since her arrival in New Zealand, the neighbor had passed away, and his children had been demanding that her family vacate the house. Her family was supported financially by one of her brothers, who had obtained employment in South Tarawa. If the family were obligated to vacate the house, they would have to travel back to Arorae Island and settle on a small plot of land. She was concerned for the family’s health and well-being. The land was eroding due to the effects of sea level rise. The drinking water was contaminated with salt. Crops were dying, as were the coconut trees. She had heard stories of children getting diarrhea and even dying because of the poor quality of the drinking water. Land was becoming very overcrowded, and houses were close together, which led to the spread of disease.
2.7 The Tribunal also considered many supporting documents submitted by the author, including several scholarly articles written by United Nations entities and experts. The Tribunal analyzed whether the author could qualify as a refugee or a protected person under the Refugee Convention, the Convention against Torture, or the Covenant. It found the author entirely credible. It noted that the carrying capacity of the land on the Tarawa atoll had been negatively impacted by the effects of population growth, urbanization, and limited infrastructure development, particularly in relation to sanitation. These impacts had been exacerbated by both sudden-onset environmental events, such as storms, and slow-onset processes, such as sea level rise. The Tribunal noted that the author had been unemployed for several years before arriving in New Zealand, and had relied on subsistence agriculture and fishing, while receiving financial support from his wife’s brother. The Tribunal noted the author’s statement that he did not wish to return to the Republic of Kiribati because of the difficulties he and his family faced there, due to the combined pressures of overpopulation and sea level rise. The house they were living in on South Tarawa was no longer available to them on a long-term basis. Although the couple’s families had land on other islands, they would face similar environmental pressures there, and the land available was of limited size and was occupied by other family members.
2.8 After a lengthy analysis of international human rights standards, the Tribunal considered that “while in many cases the effects of environmental change and natural disasters will not bring affected persons within the scope of the Refugee Convention, no hard and fast rules or presumptions of non-applicability exist. Care must be taken to examine the particular features of the case.” After further examination, the Tribunal concluded that the author did not objectively face a real risk of being persecuted if returned to Kiribati. He had not been subjected to any land dispute in the past and there was no evidence that he faced a real chance of suffering serious physical harm from violence linked to housing/land/property disputes in the future. He would be able to find land to provide accommodation for himself and his family.1 Moreover, there was no evidence to support his contention that he was unable to grow food or obtain potable water. There was no evidence that he had no access to potable water, or that the environmental conditions that he faced or would face on return were so perilous that his life would be jeopardized. For these reasons, he was not a “refugee” as defined by the Refugee Convention.
2.9 Regarding the Covenant, the Tribunal noted that the right to life must be interpreted broadly, in keeping with the Committee’s general comment No. 6 (1982) on article 6. The Tribunal cited academic commentary stating that under article 6, an arbitrary deprivation of life involves an interference that is: (a) not prescribed by law; (b) not proportional to the ends sought; and (c) not necessary in the particular circumstances of the case.2 On this basis, the Tribunal accepted that the right to life involves a positive obligation of the state to fulfil this right by taking programmatic steps to provide for the basic necessities for life. However, the author could not point to any act or omission by the Government of Kiribati that might indicate a risk that he would be arbitrarily deprived of his life within the scope of article 6 of the Covenant. The Tribunal considered that the Government of Kiribati was active on the international stage concerning the threats of climate change, as demonstrated by the 2007 Programme of Action. Moreover, the author could not establish that there was a sufficient degree of risk to his life, or that of his family, at the relevant time. Quoting the Committee’s jurisprudence in Aalbersberg et al. v. the Netherlands (CCPR/C/87/D/1440/2005), the Tribunal stated that under the Optional Protocol, the risk of a violation of the Covenant must be “imminent.” This means that the risk to life must be, at least, likely to occur. No evidence was provided to establish such imminence. The Tribunal accepted that, given the greater predictability of the climate system, the risk to the author and his family from sea level rise and other natural disasters could, in a broad sense, be regarded as more imminent than the risk posed to the life of the complainants in Aalbersberg et al v. the Netherlands. However, the risk to the author and his family still fell the Refugee Convention, the Convention against Torture, or the Covenant. It found the author entirely credible. It noted that the carrying capacity of the land on the Tarawa atoll had been negatively impacted by the effects of population growth, urbanization, and limited infrastructure development, particularly in relation to sanitation. These impacts had been exacerbated by both sudden-onset environmental events, such as storms, and slow-onset processes, such as sea level rise. The Tribunal noted that the author had been unemployed for several years before arriving in New Zealand, and had relied on subsistence agriculture and fishing, while receiving financial support from his wife’s brother. The Tribunal noted the author’s statement that he did not wish to return to the Republic of Kiribati because of the difficulties he and his family faced there, due to the combined pressures of overpopulation and sea level rise. The house they were living in on South Tarawa was no longer available to them on a long-term basis. Although the couple’s families had land on other islands, they would face similar environmental pressures there, and the land available was of limited size and was occupied by other family members.
2.8 After a lengthy analysis of international human rights standards, the Tribunal considered that “while in many cases the effects of environmental change and natural disasters will not bring affected persons within the scope of the Refugee Convention, no hard and fast rules or presumptions of non-applicability exist. Care must be taken to examine the particular features of the case.” After further examination, the Tribunal concluded that the author did not objectively face a real risk of being persecuted if returned to Kiribati. He had not been subjected to any land dispute in the past and there was no evidence that he faced a real chance of suffering serious physical harm from violence linked to housing/land/property disputes in the future. He would be able to find land to provide accommodation for himself and his family.1 Moreover, there was no evidence to support his contention that he was unable to grow food or obtain potable water. There was no evidence that he had no access to potable water, or that the environmental conditions that he faced or would face on return were so perilous that his life would be jeopardized. For these reasons, he was not a “refugee” as defined by the Refugee Convention.
2.9 Regarding the Covenant, the Tribunal noted that the right to life must be interpreted broadly, in keeping with the Committee’s general comment No. 6 (1982) on article 6. The Tribunal cited academic commentary stating that under article 6, an arbitrary deprivation of life involves an interference that is: (a) not prescribed by law; (b) not proportional to the ends sought; and (c) not necessary in the particular circumstances of the case.2 On this basis, the Tribunal accepted that the right to life involves a positive obligation of the state to fulfil this right by taking programmatic steps to provide for the basic necessities for life. However, the author could not point to any act or omission by the Government of Kiribati that might indicate a risk that he would be arbitrarily deprived of his life within the scope of article 6 of the Covenant. The Tribunal considered that the Government of Kiribati was active on the international stage concerning the threats of climate change, as demonstrated by the 2007 Programme of Action. Moreover, the author could not establish that there was a sufficient degree of risk to his life, or that of his family, at the relevant time. Quoting the Committee’s jurisprudence in Aalbersberg et al. v. the Netherlands (CCPR/C/87/D/1440/2005), the Tribunal stated that under the Optional Protocol, the risk of a violation of the Covenant must be “imminent.” This means that the risk to life must be, at least, likely to occur. No evidence was provided to establish such imminence. The Tribunal accepted that, given the greater predictability of the climate system, the risk to the author and his family from sea level rise and other natural disasters could, in a broad sense, be regarded as more imminent than the risk posed to the life of the complainants in Aalbersberg et al v. the Netherlands. However, the risk to the author and his family still fell well short of the threshold required to establish substantial grounds for believing that they would be in danger of arbitrary deprivation of life within the scope of article 6 of the Covenant. This risk remained firmly in the realm of conjecture or surmise. There was no evidence establishing that his situation in the Republic of Kiribati would be so precarious that his or his family’s life would be in danger. The Tribunal noted the testimony of the author’s wife that she feared her young children could drown in a tidal event or storm surge. However, no evidence had been provided to establish that deaths from such events were occurring with such regularity as to raise the prospect of death occurring to the author or his family members to a level rising beyond conjecture and surmise, let alone a risk that could be characterized as an arbitrary deprivation of life. Accordingly, there were not substantial grounds for believing that the author or any of his family members would be in danger of a violation of their rights under article 6 of the Covenant. The Tribunal also found that there was not a substantial risk that the author’s rights under article 7 of the Covenant would be violated by his removal.
2.10 The author also provided a copy of the decision of the Supreme Court, which denied the author’s appeal of the decision of the Tribunal on 20 July 2015. The Court considered, inter alia, that while the Republic of Kiribati undoubtedly faced challenges, the author would not, if returned there, face serious harm. Moreover, there was no evidence that the Government of the Republic of Kiribati was failing to take steps to protect its citizens from the effects of environmental degradation to the extent that it could. The Supreme Court was also not persuaded that there was any risk that a substantial miscarriage of justice had occurred. Nevertheless, the Court did not rule out the possibility that environmental degradation resulting from climate change or other natural disasters could “create a pathway into the Refugee Convention or other protected person jurisdiction.”

The complaint
3. The author claims that by removing him to Kiribati, New Zealand violated his right to life under the Covenant. Sea level rise in Kiribati has resulted in: (a) the scarcity of habitable space, which has in turn caused violent land disputes that endanger the author’s life; and (b) environmental degradation, including saltwater contamination of the freshwater supply.

RULING
9.5 The Committee also observes that it, in addition to regional human rights tribunals, have established that environmental degradation can compromise effective enjoyment of the right to life,1 and that severe environmental degradation can adversely affect an individual’s well-being and lead to a violation of the right to life.2

bookmark_borderNetherlands Double Whammy

Molly Quell reports: Blowing in the Wind: Why the Netherlands Is Sinking

Over the centuries, windmills built to drain peatland for agriculture have been causing the ground to steadily sink.

This subsidence means that in a low-lying nation famous for engineering its way around rising seas, the ground is also sinking lower, creating huge problems for the structures built on top. At a certain point, building foundations begin to crack, sinkholes appear, roads destabilize, and the risk of flooding increases. More construction results in more pressing down of the peat — and more subsidence.

A 2016 report from the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, a research group that advises the government, estimated that the total damage to the country’s buildings and infrastructure from subsidence, as well as the cost to restore weak foundations, could top $22 billion, or 20 billion euros, by 2050.

What’s worse, the sinking may actually be contributing to climate change: A drop in the peat soil of just one centimeter results in the emission of about 9 tons of carbon dioxide per acre, says Gert Jan van den Born, a policy researcher at PBL. That accounts for a large part of overall CO2 emissions in the agricultural sector.

bookmark_borderSea Level Rise and Real Estate in Florida

The Tampa Bay Times reports: Your Florida coastal home could lose 15% of its value by 2030 due to sea rise

 

Increasing sea rise is going to water down the value of some of the most coveted and expensive real estate in Florida, and insurance rates will go up too.

That’s the conclusion of a pair of new reports calculating just how much of an impact climate change will have on Florida’s real estate industry.

A report from international consulting giant McKinsey released Thursday found that Florida homes subject to the risk of flooding could lose 5 to 15 percent of their value in the next decade, barring any significant changes to the market in that time. By 2050, that could leap to 15 to 35 percent.

In another Miami-Dade-focused report from Jupiter Intelligence, researchers found that moderate flooding of about a foot will affect nearly double the number of homes by 2050.

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