by Daniel Brouse The rapid proliferation of prediction markets has been fascinating to watch. Recently, I listened to the owner of one such company describe how their platform generated substantial profits during the Super Bowl. What stood out was not simply the scale of betting activity, but the psychological patterns that drove it. The story […]
Category Archives: Finance
Systemic Infrastructure Risk in a Nonlinear Climate: Economic and Public Safety Implications for the United States
Daniel Brouse and Sidd MukherjeeFebruary 8, 2026 Abstract One of the largest and fastest-growing economic costs of climate change in the United States is infrastructure degradation and failure. Intensifying extreme weather events — including flooding, windstorms, heat waves, and heavy precipitation — are stressing systems that were designed for a more stable 20th-century climate. Because […]
Also posted in Agriculture, Business, Education, Energy, Environment, freedom, Global Warming, Government, health and wellness, liberty, Medicine, Politics, Science, Security, Society, taxes, Trees, weather
Tagged climate change, economy
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Demographics, Automation, and the Fragility of Growth Capitalism
By Daniel Brouse Modern capitalism, particularly in its post–World War II form, has depended on growth — growth in productivity, growth in consumption, and critically, growth in population. Programs such as Social Security and Medicare are not pre-funded savings accounts; they are transfer systems that rely on a sufficiently large base of current workers paying […]
Price Floors and Power: When Free Markets Give Way to State-Directed Capitalism
U.S. Vice President JD Vance told a meeting of more than 50 countries focused on expanding access to critical minerals that the United States plans to establish a system of price floors for those commodities — a significant intervention in markets traditionally governed by supply and demand. A government-imposed price floor for critical minerals is […]
Also posted in freedom, Government, International, Politics, Security, Society, taxes
Tagged economy
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Economic Collapse and the Trump Card: When Leverage, Confidence, and Credibility Fail
by Daniel Brouse February 4, 2026 Past Performance Does Not Necessarily Predict Future Performance Every prospectus carries the familiar warning: “Past performance does not guarantee future results.” It is a mandatory SEC disclosure reminding investors that historical returns — whether strong or weak — do not reliably predict what comes next. That disclaimer guards against […]
Also posted in Agriculture, Business, Energy, Environment, freedom, Global Warming, Government, History, Law, liberty, Politics, Science, Security, Society, taxes
Tagged climate change, economy
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Storm Warnings Over America’s Heartland: Senate Leaders and Industry Veterans Warn of Agricultural Crisis
The chair of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee issued a stark warning Tuesday: American farmers are absorbing heavy losses across multiple sectors, and the financial strain is intensifying. At the same time, more than two dozen former agricultural industry leaders released a joint statement cautioning that the nation faces the risk of a “widespread collapse […]
Also posted in Agriculture, Business, Energy, Environment, freedom, Government, liberty, Politics, taxes
Tagged economy
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The Re-Shoring Lie: Why Manufacturing Job Losses Persist Despite the Rhetoric
In 2025, U.S. manufacturing employment did not experience a revival — it continued to decline. By year-end, the sector posted negative net growth, with an estimated 70,000 to 100,000 jobs lost overall. After brief stabilization earlier in the year, the final eight months saw consistent monthly job losses, reflecting weakening demand, trade policy uncertainty, and […]
Cracked Fractals: Climate Thermodynamics, Insurance Instability, and Sovereign Debt Transmission in Late-Stage Capitalism
by Daniel Brouse (February 2, 2026 update to an ongoing study) Abstract The relationships between climate physics and modern financial structure are complex, dynamic, and fundamentally non-linear. This paper examines the transmission mechanisms linking climate destabilization to structural fragility within advanced capitalist economies. Drawing on thermodynamics, actuarial science, and sovereign debt dynamics, it argues that […]
Also posted in Agriculture, Business, Education, Energy, Environment, freedom, Global Warming, Government, health and wellness, International, Law, liberty, Politics, Science, Security, Society, taxes, Trees, weather
Tagged climate change, economy
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Militarized Aid, Extremist Contractors, and Surveillance Power: Ongoing Scrutiny of GHF, ICE, and Palantir
As of early 2026, multiple investigative reports and advocacy groups have raised concerns about the intersection of humanitarian aid operations in Gaza, private security contractors, extremist affiliations, and U.S. immigration enforcement technologies. The issues span several entities: the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), private security firms operating in Gaza, far-right extremist networks, U.S. Immigration and Customs […]
Producer Prices Surge as Tariff Pass-Through Accelerates: Affordability Pressures Are Building
Today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report came in not only high, but above already elevated expectations. U.S. producer prices posted their largest monthly gain in five months — a clear signal that cost pressures inside the supply chain are intensifying. This should not be surprising. Tariffs function as a tax on imports. When imposed, they […]