Category: freedom

bookmark_borderDumbfoundingly Dumb Tariffs

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by Daniel Brouse
April 9, 2025

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) calculated that the cumulative average tariff rate on Chinese imports would reach nearly 125% following the implementation of an additional 84% tariff by the Trump administration. This calculation accounts for the compounding effect of successive tariff increases over time.​

Here’s a breakdown of how this figure is derived:

  1. Initial Average Tariff Rate: Before the recent tariff announcement, the average tariff rate on Chinese imports was approximately 20.8%. This figure includes tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first term and subsequent adjustments under President Biden.

  2. Additional Tariff Imposed: An additional 84% tariff is set to be applied to Chinese imports.

  3. Compounded Tariff Calculation: The new tariff is applied on top of the existing tariffs, leading to a compounded effect. The formula to calculate the cumulative tariff rate is

Total Tariff Rate = (1 + Existing Tariff Rate) * (1 + Additional Tariff Rate) – 1

Total Tariff Rate = (1 + 0.208) * (1 + 0.84) – 1
Total Tariff Rate = 1.208 * 1.84 – 1
Total Tariff Rate = 2.22472 – 1
Total Tariff Rate = 1.22472 or 122.472%

Rounding this figure gives approximately 122.5%, which aligns with PIIE’s calculation of nearly 125%.

This compounding effect illustrates how successive tariff increases can significantly elevate the overall tariff rate, leading to substantial impacts on trade dynamics and economic relations between the involved countries.

The new wave of tariffs on Chinese imports isn’t just economically misguided — it’s economically self-destructive. Far from punishing China, these tariffs act as a massive tax on American consumers and businesses. Tariffs are paid by U.S. importers, not by China. The costs inevitably flow downstream, driving up prices on everything from electronics and cars to construction materials, clothing, and medical equipment. In other words, tariffs are inflation accelerators — hitting American families directly at a time when inflation is already a concern.

Worse, these policies cripple the very U.S. manufacturers they claim to protect. American factories depend heavily on Chinese parts and materials to remain globally competitive. By driving up input costs, tariffs make U.S. manufacturing less competitive, not more. The likely result is fewer U.S. factory jobs, higher consumer prices, and a growing incentive for companies to offshore even more production.

China will not sit idly by, either. Retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. exports — especially agricultural products like soybeans, pork, and corn — are almost guaranteed. U.S. farmers, already vulnerable in a highly competitive global market, will feel the squeeze first. Exporters of aircraft, cars, and technology are next in line.

Over time, this kind of trade policy encourages global supply chains to bypass the United States altogether. Multinational companies hate uncertainty and will naturally redirect investment to more stable environments like Mexico, Vietnam, or Indonesia. This risks isolating the U.S. economy from global trade flows and eroding its long-standing central role in the global economy.

Economically, the U.S. faces a toxic mix: rising prices alongside slowing growth — the classic recipe for stagflation. Inflation accelerates because of higher import costs, while growth slows as manufacturing, exports, and consumer demand contract under the weight of higher prices. Rising unemployment in key sectors becomes a real risk.

Perhaps most ironically, this tariff policy undermines America’s own technological leadership. Many U.S. innovations, from iPhones to solar panels, rely on Chinese components. Disrupting these supply chains increases costs for R&D, slows the adoption of green technologies, and handicaps U.S. efforts to lead the world in the next generation of tech.

Strategically, it’s even worse. The more the U.S. behaves like an unreliable or hostile trading partner, the more it pushes other countries — including allies — toward China’s orbit. China gains a propaganda victory, portraying itself as the stable alternative to an erratic and isolationist America.

Ultimately, these tariffs function less like economic policy and more like economic self-sabotage. They tax Americans, hurt U.S. businesses, fuel inflation, slow growth, threaten jobs, and weaken America’s position in the world. It’s like burning down your own house because you don’t like the neighbor’s paint color.

White House Tariff Clarification — The Executive Order outlines that the total tariffs on China under Trump 2.0 amount to 145%, on top of approximately 20% imposed during Trump 1.0, resulting in an effective tariff rate of around 165%. However, most economists agree that tariffs exceeding 50% function effectively as a trade embargo, severely limiting or eliminating imports altogether.

Protectionism 101: Trump Economics

It’s honestly hard to watch this and understand how any of his followers are falling for what has to be the worst attempt at “Don the Con” yet. I can’t find a single credible economist who agrees with Trump on this. Eliminating immigration and launching a trade war at the same time isn’t strategy — it’s economic suicide. It’s like going nuclear on your own economy. I’d say someone needs to take the “codes” out of his hands — but it’s too late. He’s already launched them.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderA Recession by Any Other Name: Why the Coming Downturn May Not Look Like Past Crises — But Will Feel Even Worse

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by Daniel Brouse
April 6, 2025

What are the chances of a recession?

It really comes down to how one defines a recession. Traditional recessions are often characterized by rising unemployment, but with Trump’s immigration policies severely restricting the labor force, the job market may appear tighter than usual — even as the underlying economy deteriorates.

When you factor in these artificial constraints on labor supply, there’s easily a 90%+ probability of a U.S. recession this year. And given the ripple effects of tariffs, trade wars, and global uncertainty, I’d estimate a 95% chance of a global recession as well. This won’t look like past recessions on the surface — but in terms of slowing growth, rising costs, reduced output, and widespread economic strain, it absolutely qualifies.

For the past several years, immigration has contributed roughly 80% of U.S. GDP growth. Even before factoring in the tariffs, the U.S. economy was already facing the prospect of slow — if not flat — growth this year. Now, with the addition of what amounts to the largest regressive tax increase in U.S. history, the outlook has gone from concerning to potentially catastrophic. While the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, the risks are clear: higher consumer prices, reduced purchasing power, supply chain disruptions, and broad-based economic strain — especially for lower- and middle-income households. The combination of anti-immigration policies choking labor supply and tariffs imposing massive new costs on consumers and businesses creates a perfect storm of stagnation and inflation. Together, these policies could produce the most damaging U.S. economy in over a century.

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderThe Silencing of America: Journalism, Protest, and the Rise of Fear

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by Anonymous
April 6, 2025, updated July 2025

It is terrifying to watch American journalism go silent — not because reporters don’t care, but because many of us know exactly what happens when we speak the truth now.

I know. I’ve been an investigative journalist for over 45 years, filming police corruption, government lies, and abuse of power across this country. I have faced threats before. But this — this is something darker.

On election day, I realized I could no longer safely use my real name. The night before, I dreamed I was arrested at a protest. That is not paranoia. That is preparation in Trump’s America.

Since returning to power, Trump has wasted no time weaponizing the legal system against his perceived enemies — especially the press. Major networks like ABC and independent journalists face a relentless barrage of lawsuits, not because Trump expects to win, but because he wants to bleed them dry and silence them. Under a Justice Department now resembling a political death squad, who will stop him?

And it’s not just lawsuits. State and federal crackdowns on peaceful protests are increasing, targeting Americans exercising their constitutional rights. Their crime? Daring to oppose genocide, war, or environmental destruction. At the Hands Off! protests, the loudest chants weren’t just against war — they demanded the release of political prisoners held in America today.

This is no longer creeping fascism. It is marching down Main Street with impunity.

Anyone who knows history sees the signs. This is how it starts: with fear. With silence. With people convincing themselves, “It can’t happen here.”

But it is happening here.

A Coordinated Assault on Truth

Trump is not alone. In Israel, Netanyahu’s far-right government has banned journalists from reporting in Gaza and outlawed Al Jazeera, the region’s most reliable independent outlet. Reporters who attempt to document atrocities face arrest or worse.

Both leaders understand that silencing truth is essential to maintaining authoritarian power. Their tactics are deliberate: demonize the press, weaponize courts, spread disinformation, and make public dissent a punishable offense.

Meanwhile, as these leaders dismantle democratic institutions, they fuel crises that demand accountability: genocide in Gaza, escalating wars, environmental collapse, and economic ruin. Silencing journalists silences the evidence.

Why This Moment Matters

We have entered a dangerous feedback loop: authoritarian regimes suppress dissent, allowing them to escalate violence and repression, which in turn demands more suppression to avoid accountability.

Independent journalism is the last line of defense. Without it, people will not know the full extent of the atrocities being committed in their name, the corruption draining their futures, or the environmental collapse accelerating under deregulation.

We, as journalists, continue to report — even if anonymously — because silence is complicity.

And we, as citizens, must decide if we will let fear dictate our future.

Citizen, beware.

Journalist, beware.

Truth is now treason in Trump’s America, and in Netanyahu’s Israel.

If we allow the silencing of journalism, the silencing of democracy will follow.

 

Silencing Truth: The War on Journalism by Netanyahu and Trump

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderTrump, Debt, and the Art of Losing Other People’s Money

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Company Profile

Donald J. Trump (DJT) Hotels & Casinos was an entertainment company that owned and operated the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino, Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort, Trump’s Castle Casino Resort and Trump Indiana.

Besides revenues from gambling, the properties offered other forms of entertainment. The Taj Mahal was an experience unto itself. Just the entrance had $1 million in 24-karat gold leaf… and, millions of dollars worth of German crystal chandeliers sparkled over the lobby’s Carrera marble-floor.

I’m an economist. In the 1990s, I conducted a moral and ethics experiment involving the stock DJT for a widows and orphans fund, during which Trump misappropriated the funds. A business bankruptcy impacts more people than a personal bankruptcy and is seen as a more significant violation of business ethics and morals.

The original stock with the ticker symbol DJT belonged to Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts (THCR), a company founded by Donald Trump in the 1990s. It operated various casinos and resorts, including Trump Plaza, Trump Taj Mahal, and Trump Marina in Atlantic City. THCR faced ongoing financial difficulties, which eventually led to four major bankruptcies. In 1995, the company went public under the ticker DJT, aiming to raise funds to refinance debts and expand its casino ventures. However, the company quickly became over-leveraged with high-interest debt, which plagued its operations.

The first bankruptcy in the timeline occurred in 1991, before DJT went public, when Trump’s Taj Mahal casino filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after failing to generate enough revenue to service its over $1 billion debt from junk bonds. Trump had to give up half of his ownership in the Taj Mahal but retained control of the casino. In 2004, Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts (by then public under DJT) filed for bankruptcy a second time due to its massive debt load and struggling casino operations. During this bankruptcy, Trump gave up more control of the company to creditors, though he stayed on as chairman.

In 2009, the company, rebranded as Trump Entertainment Resorts, filed for Chapter 11 again, marking the third bankruptcy. Trump resigned as chairman and left the board of directors, maintaining only a small ownership stake. Despite these efforts, the financial situation worsened, and in 2014, the company filed for bankruptcy a fourth time, leading to the closure of the Trump Plaza and Trump Taj Mahal casinos. This final bankruptcy signaled the end of Trump’s casino ventures, though his name remained on some properties through branding agreements.

The successive bankruptcies decimated the value of DJT stock, and Trump’s stake in the company dwindled over time. By the time of the 2014 bankruptcy, Trump had little control over the company. Eventually, DJT stock ceased to exist as the company’s assets were sold off. The bankruptcies are often cited as part of Trump’s controversial financial history, where he used bankruptcy laws to restructure debts, often at the cost of shareholders and creditors.

Conclusion

It’s difficult to determine the exact number of corporate bankruptcies associated with Donald Trump’s business ventures, in part because of how some analysts count them. In this particular case, there were four separate bankruptcy filings, though many analysts count them collectively as a single event. Broadly, most sources agree that Trump’s companies have filed for bankruptcy at least six times, with some estimates — depending on how repeat filings by the same entity are treated — placing the total closer to 12 to 14.

In each instance, critics have argued that Trump personally profited despite the financial losses borne by shareholders, lenders, and employees. These allegations typically focus on patterns of aggressive debt use, questionable fiscal management, and the transfer of risk from Trump to investors and creditors.

Now, he is doing it worldwide.

As one economist put it:

“Trump didn’t just pick a trade war — he picked one with the entire planet.”

A Crisis of This Magnitude Has Not Been Seen in Nearly 100 Years

While past recessions were driven by financial collapses (such as 2008’s mortgage crisis or the dot-com bubble in 2000), this economic crisis is entirely policy-driven. The sheer scale of the tariffs, combined with global retaliation and the isolation of the U.S., has created a trade collapse not seen since the 1930s. If history is any guide, the consequences could be severe, with prolonged economic hardship, market instability, and lasting damage to U.S. credibility in global trade.

Capital Preservation During Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderEconomic Survival 101: Liquidity & Long-Term Strategy

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by Daniel Brouse

Capital Preservation is Survival Rule #1

Capital preservation has always been important — but in today’s economic environment, it has become absolutely critical. The phrase dominating Wall Street has been “The Wealth Effect.” Normally, the stock market and the real economy are loosely connected — the ups and downs of stock prices don’t immediately ripple through everyday life. But these aren’t normal times.

The sharp contraction in wealth is not just a stock market story anymore — it’s spreading. It’s affecting real people, real spending, and real businesses.

This is The Wealth Effect in action.

Why It Matters

When people feel poorer, they spend less — not just on luxuries, but on everything. Airline stocks, hotel chains, cruise lines, car companies, and even high-end retailers are feeling the squeeze. Discretionary spending is collapsing.

Remember: the stock market is often called a “leading indicator” — it signals where the economy is heading, not where it’s been. But right now, it’s more like a real-time broadcast of wealth destruction.

Preserving capital was the first step.

Now comes step two:

Liquidity Testing: What Good Are Assets If You Can’t Use Them?

Liquidity is a word investors throw around, but in times of crisis, liquidity becomes survival.

Liquidity simply means: How fast — and with how little friction — can you turn something into usable cash?

But here’s the catch: liquidity isn’t just theoretical. You need to test it.

Practical Liquidity Drills

  1. Bank Accounts:
    Can you access your money digitally (debit card, online transfer)?
    Can you physically withdraw it (ATMs, branch visits)?

  2. Brokerage Accounts:
    Sell a single share of stock.
    Move that money to your checking account.
    Then, physically withdraw it.

See how long that takes. Time every step. Note every fee. Every delay. Every “unexpected problem.” This is your liquidity test.

  1. Retirement Accounts:
    Try withdrawing $1. Even if there’s a penalty, learn the process now — not when you’re desperate.

  2. Alternative Assets:
    Gold: Can you sell an ounce and get cash today? Where? How?
    Bitcoin or Crypto: Can you convert $1 worth to local currency — and then get that in your hand?

  3. Physical Cash:
    Do you have enough for at least 2-4 weeks of emergency needs — but not so much that it creates storage and theft risk?

This is not paranoia. This is rehearsal. When you’re hungry, the person with practice will eat first.

Long-Term Economic Survival Planning

Liquidity is for short-term survival. But what about the long-term?

There’s an uncomfortable possibility investors need to consider: If current economic policies — particularly those championed by Trump and his allies — stay in place, we could be heading toward intentional dollar devaluation.

Trump has openly said he favors a weaker dollar to juice exports and reduce debt burdens. That sounds fine on cable news. But in the real world, a falling dollar means your savings buy less and less — possibly very quickly.

What Happens If The Dollar Weakens Dramatically?

In that environment, capital preservation shifts from holding dollars to holding value — and that’s a very different skillset.

But each alternative comes with its own risks:

Asset Challenge
Gold Heavy, hard to store, risk of theft
Bitcoin Not physical, depends on electricity/internet, no intrinsic value
Real Estate Illiquid, maintenance costs, tax exposure
Commodities (Food/Fuel) Perishable, storage issues, not scalable
Foreign Currencies Complex, geopolitical risks
Precious Metals (Silver, Platinum) Similar to gold, but less portable

Bottom Line: Adapt or Lose

→ First, protect your assets. Preserve what you have.
→ Second, test your liquidity. Don’t assume. Verify.
→ Third, begin developing an exit strategy from the dollar — not out of fear, but out of discipline.

This is Economic Survival 101.

The people who survive economic storms are not always the richest. They’re the most prepared, the most adaptable, and the most liquid.

Are you?

RESOURCES:

Capital Preservation

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderTariff Theater: Trump’s Economic War on the World — Including Penguins

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by Daniel Brouse
April 5, 2025

The tariffs announced on what Trump dubbed “Liberation Day” featured a chart titled Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A., purporting to show the crushing rates foreign countries supposedly impose on American goods. But these numbers were completely fabricated — not grounded in trade data or economic principles. Instead, Trump’s team appears to have confused tariffs with trade deficits, using the size of the U.S. trade deficit with each country to create a fictional “tariff rate.”

This fundamental misunderstanding is emblematic of much of Trump’s economic worldview — one that runs counter to decades of established economic theory.

In reality, U.S. trade deficits have long benefited American consumers by allowing access to cheaper foreign goods, while the strength of the dollar fuels domestic spending. The U.S. essentially trades inexpensive paper money for real goods — raw materials, finished products, and even luxury items — while foreign countries often recycle those dollars back into U.S. Treasuries, helping finance America’s debt.

Yet Trump continues to argue that trade deficits equal theft.

Trump’s Trade Narrative: Economic Victimhood

In speeches and social media posts in April 2025, Trump has claimed:

“For too long, corrupt foreign leaders — even from the poorest countries — have slapped massive tariffs on American products while flooding our markets with their goods, often duty-free. It’s been a one-sided scam — they’ve taken our jobs, stolen our industries, and destroyed entire American communities.”

Trump alleges that:

  • Foreign tariffs make U.S. farmers and manufacturers uncompetitive.

  • The U.S. has been the “piggy bank” of the world.

  • New tariffs will “level the playing field” and force “fair deals.”

Supporters call this economic justice. Critics call it economic vandalism.  Wall Street has already rebranded “Liberation Day” as The Big Mistake.

Tariff Theater: Trump’s Economic War on the World — Including Penguins
Tariff Theater: Trump’s Economic War on the World — Including Penguins

Lesotho: Targeting One of the World’s Poorest Nations

Among the most striking examples of Trump’s tariff policy is Lesotho — a tiny, landlocked kingdom in southern Africa and one of the poorest nations in the world. The U.S. has imposed a staggering 50% tariff on its exports — the highest tariff applied to any sovereign country.

Lesotho’s economy depends heavily on textiles exported under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), and diamond exports to the U.S. are another vital revenue source. In 2024, Lesotho exported about $237 million in goods to the U.S.

The 50% tariff threatens to devastate Lesotho’s fragile economy, potentially wiping out thousands of jobs in a country where nearly half the population already lives below the poverty line.

Tariffs on Penguins: Heard and McDonald Islands

In perhaps the most surreal example of Trump’s trade war, a 10% tariff was imposed on the Heard and McDonald Islands — an uninhabited Australian territory in the sub-Antarctic populated only by penguins and seals.

With no human population and no meaningful exports, the islands became a global punchline. Memes exploded online mocking Trump’s “penguin tariff” as the ultimate symbol of policy absurdity.

Economic Isolation — and Global Backlash

Trump’s tariff strategy has triggered a wave of retaliatory measures, trade disruptions, and diplomatic backlash. Analysts warn that the U.S. is rapidly isolating itself from global supply chains, allies, and markets.

The economic damage has been swift and severe — not just abroad but at home, as higher consumer prices, supply shortages, and market instability ripple through the U.S. economy.

As one critic put it:

“Trump didn’t just pick a trade war — he picked one with the entire planet.”

 

RESOURCES:

Dumbfoundingly Dumb Tariffs

China Hits Back: 84% Tariff Targets U.S. Farmers First

Protectionism 101: Trump Economics

Capital Preservation During Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderMarket Chaos: VIX Surges 39.56% Amid Escalating Trade War Fears

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by Daniel Brouse
April 3, 2025

The VIX (Volatility Index), often called the “fear gauge,” measures market expectations of volatility over the next 30 days. A 39.56% spike in the VIX is highly significant and suggests extreme uncertainty and fear among investors.

Key Implications of Today’s VIX Surge:

  1. Panic Selling & Market Turmoil – A spike of this magnitude indicates that investors are rushing to hedge against potential losses, suggesting widespread concern about the stability of financial markets.

  2. Unprecedented Trade War Concerns – This surge likely reflects the market’s reaction to the sweeping tariffs imposed by the U.S. on 180 countries, which could disrupt global supply chains, increase costs, and slow economic growth.

  3. Historical Context – The last time the VIX saw a spike of this scale was during major economic crises, such as the 2008 financial meltdown or the COVID-19 market crash in 2020. This suggests that investors believe the current trade war could have long-term recessionary effects.

  4. Liquidity & Credit Market Strain – Rising volatility can impact corporate borrowing, investment decisions, and economic confidence, potentially leading to tighter credit conditions and reduced consumer spending.

  5. Potential for a Bear Market – If this volatility persists, it could mark the beginning of a prolonged downturn similar to what was seen in the Great Depression or the 2008 financial crisis.

In short, today’s 39.56% VIX spike signals extreme fear and uncertainty, with investors bracing for significant market disruptions due to escalating trade tensions.

VIX Surges 39.56% Amid Escalating Trade War Fears
VIX Surges 39.56% Amid Escalating Trade War Fears

 


  • On April 2, President Trump unilaterally declared a trade war against the rest of the world, imposing protectionist tariffs on 180 countries—calling it “Liberation Day.” This action was taken without congressional approval and in direct violation of the Constitution.
  • US Vs. Everyone
    A coalition of world leaders from diverse countries has come together to voice concerns about the U.S. tariff policies under President Donald Trump. Countries such as Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, and other major U.S. partners have not only condemned Trump’s actions but have also voiced the potential economic damage these tariffs could inflict. These nations are now positioning themselves to take collective action, highlighting a shift in the global dynamic that risks isolating the U.S. on the international stage.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was particularly vocal in her remarks, emphasizing the far-reaching consequences of these trade policies. “The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world. We are ready to respond,” she declared, signaling Europe’s readiness to take countermeasures. The European Union, along with other countries, is preparing a coordinated response to the tariffs, which could include retaliatory tariffs. economic sanctions, and boycotts.

 

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderTrade War!

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
April 3, 2025

On April 2, President Trump unilaterally declared a trade war against the rest of the world, imposing protectionist tariffs on 180 countries — calling it “.” This action was taken without congressional approval and in direct violation of the Constitution.

A coalition of world leaders from diverse countries has come together to voice concerns about the U.S. tariff policies under President Donald Trump. Their unified response signals the growing unease surrounding the economic fallout of the administration’s trade strategies, with several nations, including some of the U.S.’s closest allies, standing in opposition.

Countries such as Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, and other major U.S. partners have not only condemned Trump’s actions but have also voiced the potential economic damage these tariffs could inflict. These nations are now positioning themselves to take collective action, highlighting a shift in the global dynamic that risks isolating the U.S. on the international stage.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was particularly vocal in her remarks, emphasizing the far-reaching consequences of these trade policies. “The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world. We are ready to respond,” she declared, signaling Europe’s readiness to take countermeasures. The European Union, along with other countries, is preparing a coordinated response to the tariffs, which could include retaliatory tariffs. economic sanctions, and boycotts.

The economic impact of these tariffs is already being felt globally. While the U.S. has claimed that the trade war aims to level the playing field and protect American workers, the reality is that the tariffs have resulted in price hikes for goods ranging from electronics to agricultural products. U.S. businesses that rely on imported components have seen their production costs rise, and consumers are beginning to feel the pinch as goods become more expensive.

In response to these actions, other global powers are turning to alternative trade agreements, deepening their economic ties with each other while distancing themselves from the U.S. For example, the European Union and China have accelerated discussions on trade deals, and regional partnerships in Asia are being strengthened in response to the U.S.’s shift toward protectionism.

Countries that are traditionally aligned with the U.S. are now facing a tough choice. The diplomatic and economic fallout from the ongoing trade war is forcing them to re-evaluate their relationships with the U.S., and many are beginning to look for ways to mitigate the risks posed by the tariffs. For instance, Canada has signaled that it will seek greater market access in Europe, while Japan is exploring opportunities to diversify its trading partners beyond the U.S.

On April 4, 2025, China announced the imposition of a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States, effective April 10. This action was taken in direct response to the U.S.’s recent implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods. In addition to the tariffs, China has placed over two dozen American companies on export control and corporate blacklists, further escalating trade tensions between the two nations. These measures represent significant steps in the ongoing trade dispute, signaling a deepening of economic tensions

While the long-term effects of this trade war are still uncertain, the immediate reality is clear: a broad coalition of nations is taking a stand against the tariffs and is preparing for a future where the U.S. is increasingly isolated on the global economic stage. The global economy, already grappling with the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, now faces the added challenge of navigating a more fragmented and unpredictable trade environment.

As the U.S. continues down its path of protectionism, the rest of the world is responding with a unified front, signaling a seismic shift in global trade dynamics and the economic future of many nations.

The markets have not experienced anything like this since the Great Depression due to the unprecedented combination of extreme tariffs, global economic isolation, and retaliatory trade measures. While previous economic downturns, including the Great Recession of 2008, were triggered by financial crises, the current situation is unique in that it is a government-induced trade war that is disrupting global commerce on a scale not seen in nearly a century.

Key Parallels to the Great Depression

  1. Massive Tariffs and Global Retaliation
    The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 is widely blamed for exacerbating the Great Depression by imposing steep tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, triggering retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners. This led to a collapse in global trade, deepening the economic downturn. The current tariff war echoes this historic mistake, as sweeping new U.S. tariffs are provoking strong countermeasures from other nations, disrupting supply chains, and reducing economic activity.

  2. Economic Isolation of the U.S.
    Just as the U.S. turned inward during the Great Depression, today’s aggressive tariff policies have caused world leaders to unite in isolating the U.S. economically. Countries that were once major U.S. trading partners, including allies like Canada, Japan, and the European Union, are now forging alternative trade agreements that exclude the U.S., reducing American influence in global markets.

  3. Collapse in Global Trade and Manufacturing
    During the Great Depression, world trade plummeted by over 60% due to protectionist policies. The current trade war is causing similar disruptions. Supply chains that have taken decades to build are being dismantled almost overnight as businesses struggle with rising costs, supply shortages, and lost access to foreign markets. Global manufacturing indices are already showing contraction, reminiscent of the sharp declines seen in the early 1930s.

  4. Stock Market Freefall
    While the stock market crashed in 1929 due to speculation and economic instability, the current market decline is fueled by trade uncertainty and rising fears of a deep recession. Investors are witnessing a bear market unlike any in modern history, with volatility levels spiking as corporations issue warnings about declining profits, supply shortages, and increased costs.

  5. Skyrocketing Unemployment Risks
    In the aftermath of the Great Depression, U.S. unemployment soared to 25%, largely due to a collapse in demand and international trade. While today’s employment figures remain strong, major industries, including agriculture, manufacturing, and retail, are now at risk due to the trade war’s impact. Farmers, for example, are already struggling under retaliatory tariffs, and companies dependent on imported goods are being forced to raise prices or cut jobs. If this trend continues, the economy could slide into a severe recession, pushing unemployment higher.

  6. Collapse in Business Investment
    Just like in the early 1930s, businesses today are putting investment plans on hold due to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and potential retaliatory measures makes long-term planning nearly impossible for companies. This leads to reduced expansion, hiring freezes, and lower capital spending, all of which were key contributors to the economic stagnation of the Great Depression.

A Crisis of This Magnitude Has Not Been Seen in Nearly 100 Years

While past recessions were driven by financial collapses (such as 2008’s mortgage crisis or the dot-com bubble in 2000), this economic crisis is entirely policy-driven. The sheer scale of the tariffs, combined with global retaliation and the isolation of the U.S., has created a trade collapse not seen since the 1930s. If history is any guide, the consequences could be severe, with prolonged economic hardship, market instability, and lasting damage to U.S. credibility in global trade.

The Great Depression vs. The Climate Crisis: Why the Stock Market May Never Recover


Trump’s Sector-Specific Tariffs

Trumpenomics: The Decline of the US

bookmark_borderFighting a Mean Bear Market in a Trade War

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
April 3, 2025

Today, one of the stock market indices officially entered into bear market territory. A bear market is typically defined as a decline of 20% or more from recent highs in a broad market index, such as the Russell 2,000 Small-cap stocks. This downturn signals a shift in investor sentiment, where pessimism takes hold, and uncertainty about the future of the economy can lead to widespread selling.

Bear markets are often triggered by a combination of factors, including economic slowdowns, tightening monetary policy, rising interest rates, or geopolitical instability. These market conditions can cause investors to lose confidence in the future earnings potential of companies, leading to a sell-off in stocks. During a bear market, investors may be more risk-averse, seeking safer investments like bonds or cash.

While bear markets can be unsettling, they are a normal part of the market cycle, and historically, markets have eventually recovered. However, the duration and severity of a bear market can vary, and it is difficult to predict when the downturn will end.

This bear market is likely to be different from any in the last 100 years, largely due to the unique circumstances surrounding the ongoing trade war and its ripple effects throughout the global economy.

  1. Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Unlike past bear markets, this one is heavily influenced by the disruption of global supply chains caused by tariffs, trade restrictions, and geopolitical tensions. The trade war, particularly between the U.S. and China, has led to higher costs for many goods, impacting not only international trade but also domestic industries. Many companies that rely on cheap imported goods, materials, or components are seeing increased costs, which is affecting profitability and, in turn, stock prices. This is something we’ve rarely seen on such a global scale in previous bear markets.

  2. Tariffs and Inflationary Pressures: The trade war has imposed significant tariffs on goods, especially in industries like technology, automotive, and agriculture. These tariffs can increase the price of consumer goods and production costs, leading to inflationary pressures. While inflation is a typical concern during economic slowdowns, the added complexity of tariffs exacerbates these pressures and could delay or hinder any potential recovery. The impact of tariffs on key industries, such as tech, also adds a new layer of uncertainty to the market.

  3. Longer Recovery Period: In past bear markets, the recovery often came when the economy and investor confidence began to rebound. However, in this case, the ongoing trade war and the potential for further escalations suggest that the recovery might be slower and more prolonged. Trade wars can create lasting disruptions in markets, and tariffs can remain in place for an extended period, creating an environment of uncertainty and volatility that may delay the return to positive growth.

  4. Unprecedented Economic and Political Uncertainty: The combination of economic factors, such as the tariffs imposed under the trade war, with political instability and tensions, makes this bear market distinct. Past bear markets, such as those caused by the 2008 financial crisis, were primarily driven by financial imbalances and market speculation. The current bear market, however, is being heavily influenced by trade policies that have widespread geopolitical implications, adding a layer of complexity that investors have not faced before on such a scale.

  5. Global Impact of Protectionism: The trade war has led to a rise in protectionist policies around the world, which could lead to a reshaping of international trade relationships. Unlike previous bear markets, the trade war could result in long-term shifts in global trade patterns, with countries looking to secure more self-sufficiency or diversify their supply chains away from traditional partners. This can create added volatility as industries adapt to new market dynamics.

In conclusion, while bear markets are a natural part of economic cycles, the ongoing trade war adds unprecedented complexity to the situation. The disruption of global trade, inflationary pressures, and extended uncertainty may make this bear market more unique and prolonged compared to those seen in the past 100 years. The outcome will likely depend on how governments and businesses adapt to this new era of trade tensions, protectionism and most importantly — a trade war.

Trade War!

Over the past 24 hours, a diverse group of world leaders has voiced concerns about the tariff policies and united to isolate the U.S. on the global stage. Countries from around the world, including some of America’s closest allies such as Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, and other major U.S. partners, have condemned President Donald Trump’s actions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated, “The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world. We are ready to respond.”

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bookmark_borderHow Tariffs on Guitars and Pianos Could Impact the Next Generation of Musicians

Posted on by admin

by Daniel Brouse
April 3, 2025

An economist just referenced Little Richard to illustrate how tariffs might impact young musicians. Little Richard, known for his energetic vocals and piano playing, also had a band called “The Upsetters,” and while he wasn’t primarily a guitarist, he had notable guitarists in his band, including Jimi Hendrix. Due to tariffs on guitars, the next “Little Richard Band” may not be able to afford a starter instrument, potentially depriving future generations of groundbreaking artists.

The new tariffs will significantly impact the price of pianos, depending on their country of origin and the materials used in their construction. Many pianos, especially more affordable models, are imported from China, and if tariffs are imposed on Chinese-made pianos or parts, the price for consumers could rise. With the proposed tariffs on China totaling up to 114%, the cost of Chinese-made pianos could increase substantially. Additionally, pianos from countries like Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia face substantial tariff increases. Additionally, labor shortages and increased shipping costs resulting from tariffs on freight could further drive up piano prices. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries could disrupt the supply chain for piano parts or finished products, potentially making American-made pianos more expensive. It’s likely that both imported and domestically produced pianos could become much more expensive due to these tariffs.

The imposition of tariffs on countries that supply musical instruments and their components—particularly China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU—along with tariffs on wood, metal, and electronics, raises production costs for manufacturers, resulting in higher retail prices for consumers, including for starter guitars and other musical instruments. The combined taxes could exceed 100%, potentially leading to a halt in imports of more affordable instruments. This, in turn, would make it harder for young musicians to access the tools they need to start their musical journey, potentially limiting the next generation of groundbreaking artists.


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