A Per-Capita Estimate of Mortality, Morbidity, and Life-Expectancy Loss in 2025 Daniel Brouse and Siddhartha MukherjeeJune 2026 Abstract: Climate Welfare Accounting Framework (CWAF) Climate change is often discussed in terms of physical damages, disaster losses, or aggregate effects on GDP. Those measures are important, but they understate a central reality: climate change is also a […]
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The Welfare Cost of Climate Change in the United States
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“Jellyfish” Drone Swarm Report Sparks Intelligence Debate Over Iranian Autonomous Warfare Claims
A newly surfaced U.S. military intelligence debriefing from a downed F-15 pilot has ignited debate within defense and intelligence circles after describing what appears to be a highly synchronized Iranian drone formation operating as a single coordinated system during combat operations over Iran in April. According to a report published June 23, 2026, the pilot […]
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The Acceleration of U.S. Climate-Linked Economic Burden (1890–2040 Projection)
by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee This paper estimates the long-run evolution of U.S. climate-related economic burdens and finds strong evidence of nonlinear acceleration. Using a reconstructed baseline in the late 19th century and an integrated 2025 estimate of approximately $1.5 trillion annually in climate-attributable economic losses, we estimate that the effective doubling time of […]
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The 2025 Cost of Climate Change in the United States
Estimating the Per-Person Economic Burden of Extreme Weather, Insurance Destabilization, Climate Inflation, and Health Impacts A reasonable all-in estimate for the 2025 economic burden of climate change on the United States is about $1.5 trillion, or roughly $4,400 per person. For a family of four, the implied annual burden is roughly $17,600. That burden extends […]
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A Coupled Framework for Compression of Climate Impact Doubling Times
Climate Jerk in Socio-Ecological Systems By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Conventional climate-risk analysis often treats impacts as the downstream consequence of physical hazard intensification alone. In this framing, rising losses, displacement, mortality, infrastructure disruption, and systemic instability are interpreted primarily as a function of increasing temperature, precipitation extremes, sea-level rise, or other physical […]
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Climate Displacement and Nonlinear Acceleration: When Extreme Weather Becomes a Systemic Driver of Human Mobility
By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Climate displacement is often framed as a humanitarian consequence of storms, floods, droughts, wildfires, and sea-level rise. That framing is correct but incomplete. The deeper problem is that climate displacement is increasingly emerging from a nonlinear Earth system in which multiple climate hazards are intensifying simultaneously and interacting […]
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Trump Announces Prospective Iran Deal, But Questions Remain
President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran have reached what he described as a “great settlement” that could bring an end to the current conflict and lead to a formal agreement as early as this weekend. According to Trump, the breakthrough came after intense negotiations and recent military pressure. He characterized the […]
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Inflation Surges to Three-Year High as Oil Shock Ripples Through the Economy
Rising Energy Costs Push Inflation Higher U.S. consumer inflation accelerated sharply in May 2026, reaching its highest level in three years according to the latest data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the government’s primary measure of inflation, rose 4.2% over the previous twelve months, up from 3.8% […]
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The Dangerous Push Toward Autonomous Warfare
This is exactly what many of us feared when defense officials and political leaders turned against Palantir Technologies over concerns surrounding autonomous weapons systems and mass surveillance capabilities. According to critics, Palantir resisted efforts to fully embrace autonomous lethal decision-making systems and broad domestic surveillance applications targeting U.S. citizens. Now, instead of slowing the development […]
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Oil Forecast: Record Highs Before Structural Collapse?
What is likely to happen to the price of oil? While the future is uncertain, the highest-probability outcome may be a period of the highest oil prices in history followed by some of the lowest sustained prices in modern history. In the short term, geopolitical instability, supply disruptions, war risk, and constrained global production capacity […]
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