Tag: cliamte change

bookmark_borderEast Coast Atmospheric Rivers

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by Daniel Brouse
December 10, 2023

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture (water vapor). When more moisture-laden air moves over land it can create atmospheric rivers. In the Northwestern USA, the atmospheric rivers are commonly called the Pineapple Express. The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast. “Actually their frequency is not really increasing. Meteorologists have used the term for decades. It has simply become popular by the media. Just like polar vortex,” said Jeff Boyne National Weather Service meteorologist and climatologist. Indeed, “atmospheric rivers are more frequent on the East Coast than they are on the West Coast,” said Jason Cordeira, associate professor of meteorology at Plymouth State University. “They’re just not as impactful and don’t usually produce as much rainfall.”

What is changing is the research into the types and increasing intensity of East Coast AR events. “Between 1958 and 2012, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of rainfall measured during heavy precipitation events, more than in any other region in the United States. Projections indicate continuing increases in precipitation, especially in winter and spring and in northern parts of the region,” as reported in The US Fourth National Climate Assessment.

Most types of East Coast ARs are increasing in intensity likely due to climate change. The study Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends reports, “The impact of increasing moisture transport could be significant across the northeast corridor from Washington D.C. to Coastal Maine, as it increases the risk of extreme precipitation from landfalling ARs. The results indicate most ARs in the study domain are forced by extratropical cyclones, with lee side low pressure systems and coastal lows along the Atlantic Coast (e.g. nor’easters) responsible for producing the strongest ARs.”

How Fast Are Atmospheric Rivers Gaining Intensity?
Some areas of the world are now warming so fast, it is becoming more difficult to measure the change from “normal” or average. Jeff Boyne of the NWS said, “There are climate normals that are updated every 10 to 15 years, because the planet is warming so fast. The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) regions are warming so fast that those normals are being updated every 5 years.” Overall, how fast is climate change accelerating? Rapidly. “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “September was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” said Zeke Hausfather, at the Berkeley Earth climate data project.”

ALSO SEE:

The Reign of Violent Rain Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values Sidd Mukherjee and Daniel Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderState of the Cryosphere 2023

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Dr. Sidd Mukherjee said, “Latest frightening news” — State of the Cryosphere Report-2023.

This has been a year of climate disasters and ice loss. A glacial lake outburst flood devastated Sikkim in India. Swiss glaciers lost 10% of their remaining ice over just two years. Sea ice around Antarctica hit all-time-low summer and winter records. Unprecedented fires raged across Canadian permafrost. Parts of the Arctic and North Atlantic saw water temperatures 4 – 6°C higher than normal. It rained far inland on Antarctica, and Greenland saw its second-highest surface melt ever.

Our message — the message of the Cryosphere – is that this insanity cannot and must not continue.

The Cryosphere – Earth’s ice sheets, sea ice, permafrost, polar oceans, glaciers and snow – is ground zero for climate change. This is because of the simple physical reality of the melting point of ice; or in the case of our rapidly acidifying polar oceans, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere absorbed and turned to carbonic acid.

The warming impact of CO2, around 80% from fossil fuel use, already has led to steep glacier and ice sheet loss causing global sea-level rise; reduction of water resources from snowpack; growing CO2 and methane emissions from thawing permafrost; dramatic reduction of sea ice, now alarmingly low in both polar oceans; and growing evidence of stress on keystone polar marine species, such as krill, salmon and cod, from polar ocean acidification, warming and freshening. Enough. It is time to carve a line in the snow: because of what we have learned about the Cryosphere since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, 1.5°C is not merely preferable to 2°C. It is the only option.

Otherwise, world leaders are de facto deciding to burden humanity for centuries to millennia by displacing hundreds of millions of people from flooding coastal settlements; depriving societies of life-giving freshwater resources, disrupting delicately-balanced polar ocean and mountain ecosystems; and forcing future generations to offset long-term permafrost emissions.

This continued rise in CO2 is unacceptable.

The melting point of ice pays no attention to rhetoric, only to our actions.

Sea-level Rise: Greenland and the Collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mukherjee and Brouse (2022 and 2023)

Sea Level Rise: Then and Now Mukherjee and Brouse (2023)

Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)

bookmark_borderClimate Change Impacts on Flood Risks and Real Estate Values

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by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee
February 26, 2023

Climate change poses many risks to real estate values. In general, as energy is added to a system, the fluctuations in the system increase. So, we expect more storms, more droughts, more wildfires, more floods, more fluctuations of all kinds. What we are saying is that weather conditions will become more volatile due to the impact of humans. For the most part, weather events will become more extreme. Even the momentum of rain will cause a harder rain to fall damaging roofs, sidewalks, and driveways.

Some of the most vulnerable real estate is along coastlines and near floodplains. The study published in the Journal Nature Unpriced climate risk and the potential consequences of overvaluation in US housing markets found:

Climate change impacts threaten the stability of the US housing market. In response to growing concerns that increasing costs of flooding are not fully captured in property values, we quantify the magnitude of unpriced flood risk in the housing market by comparing the empirical and economically efficient prices for properties at risk. We find that residential properties exposed to flood risk are overvalued by US$121–US$237 billion, depending on the discount rate. In general, highly overvalued properties are concentrated in counties along the coast with no flood risk disclosure laws and where there is less concern about climate change. Low-income households are at greater risk of losing home equity from price deflation, and municipalities that are heavily reliant on property taxes for revenue are vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls.

Sidd Mukherjee said, “Pay close attention to Figure 4 in the main paper (top left map, zoom in to max.) The red boundaries are where properties are seriously overvalued and where tax revenues will collapse after flooding.

High Flood Risk Real Estate (The darker the color the higher the risk)
High Flood Risk Real Estate (The darker the color the higher the risk)

Sidd goes on to say, “Don’t miss the supplementaries.”
Flood Risk to Real Estate Supplementaries

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderReal Estate Underwater: Displacement and Climate Refugees

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by Daniel Brouse
February 22, 2023

For years climate scientists have been trying to develop models for the real estate market impacted by rising sea levels. Florida is proving to be a microcosm of coastal real estate.

“Everybody thinks this is a God-given sea level,” Harold Wanless, who heads the University of Miami’s geology department told the Miami Herald. “There’s nothing special about where the sea level is right now.”

In fact, almost all scientists agree there is going to be significant sea level rise within the next century. Miami-Dade County has developed extremely detailed elevation maps because the county is only about 6 feet above sea level with the highest elevations under 25 feet. So far, sea levels have risen about 6 inches in Miami-Dade. The rate of rise is increasing at an exponential rate.  The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact expects sea levels to rise 3 to 8 feet over the next century. NOAA’s extreme worst-case climate projections show sea levels rising by 14 feet in Southern Florida. Leading climate scientists expect sea levels to rise even higher and faster. “Once we have destabilized these ice sheets, there will be no stable coastline for centuries. I repeat: There will be no stable coastline for centuries. I apologize to the children,” said Sidd Mukherjee in his paper Longthaw.

It is certain that much of the coastline will not have to wait decades to see extreme sea level rise. In 2022, the West Coast of Florida saw a sudden sea level rise of up to 20 feet that destroyed 5,000 houses and damaged 35,000 additional homes. Insured damages were between $50 billion and 65 billion after Hurricane Ian made landfall with extreme winds, torrential rain, and storm surge. Uninsured damages were estimated at an additional $50 billion.

As sea levels rise, it is unclear if real estate built on higher ground will be able to retain any value. Florida real estate located at the higher elevations is still dependent on low-lying infrastructure. “You’re not going to have roads to get around on. You’re not going to have sewage treatment facilities. You won’t have garbage pickup. You won’t have a source of fresh water,” said Wanless. “All those things are the unfortunate reality of the future, and it won’t wait until sea levels have risen 20 feet.”

The inability to obtain flood insurance will likely be a leading driver in climate displacement out of Florida. If residents wait too long, they will likely become indigent climate refugees fleeing after letting their property values plunge to zero. Standard flood insurance only covers up to $250,000 of property damage, nothing below the first floor, and cumulative to the life of the property. (That is to say, if a previous homeowner made a claim of $100,000, the new homeowner is only covered for $150,000.) In the event a homeowner is able to obtain a flood insurance policy, the cost of the insurance has been increasing yearly. In 2022, FEMA announced its new pricing policy: “FEMA is updating the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) risk rating methodology through the implementation of a new pricing methodology called Risk Rating 2.0. The methodology leverages industry best practices and cutting-edge technology to enable FEMA to deliver rates that are actuarily sound, equitable, easier to understand and better reflect a property’s flood risk.” Flood insurance rates have quadrupled in Miami-Dade County.

FEMA also has the 50% rule — the 50% Rule is a regulation of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) that prohibits improvements to a structure exceeding 50% of its market value unless the entire structure is brought into full compliance with current flood regulations. Many existing structures cannot be rebuilt to their previous size, or for structures like trailers they cannot be rebuilt at all.

Quite a few private insurance companies have pulled out of Florida altogether. Five Florida insurance companies have already pulled out of the state. In addition, these private insurers are in liquidation:
AMERICAN CAPITAL ASSURANCE CORPORATION
AVATAR PROPERTY AND CASUALTY INSURANCE COMPANY
FEDNAT INSURANCE COMPANY
FLORIDA SPECIALTY INSURANCE COMPANY
GUARANTEE INSURANCE COMPANY
GULFSTREAM PROPERTY AND CASUALTY INSURANCE COMPANY
PHYSICIANS UNITED PLAN, INC.
SOUTHERN FIDELITY INSURANCE COMPANY
ST. JOHNS INSURANCE COMPANY, INC.
SUNSHINE STATE INSURANCE COMPANY
UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE INSURANCE COMPANY, INC.
UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE, INC.
WESTON PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE COMPANY
WINDHAVEN INSURANCE COMPANY

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation has had to step in and provide state assistance for reinsurance coverage through state-run Citizens Property Insurance. The St. Lucie News Tribune reports, “The dramatic decision to assume financial responsibility for a raft of struggling insurers underscores the dire circumstances Florida is facing as a large portion of its homeowners insurance market teeters on the brink of collapse.”

Most mortgages require homeowner’s insurance in addition to flood insurance for properties located in a flood zone. Washington, D.C. is finally addressing the concept of some areas being too vulnerable to insure and addressing a
“Managed Retreat”.

Some Florida residents have already glimpsed the future and are moving out now. The Insider reports:

The Faasts had lived the kind of life you can only live in the Keys: Connie worked on commercial fishing boats and in a local aquarium, while Glenn owned a boat maintenance company and raced Jet Skis in his spare time. They had stuck it out in the Keys through several major storms, including 2005’s Hurricane Wilma, which brought five feet of water to their little island and totaled three of their cars; Connie still shudders when she remembers the image of her husband wading through the water around their house with snakes climbing all over him, clinging to him for shelter from the flood. The Faasts had second thoughts after that storm, but the Keys were paradise, and besides, they didn’t know where else they would go.

When Irma came 12 years later, though, the choice was much easier. During the evacuation, it took the Faasts a week to find a decaying hotel in Orlando where they could wait out the storm. As the hurricane passed over the center of the state, it knocked out their power, leaving them and their pets to spend the night in 100-degree heat without air conditioning. “That was it for us,” she said. They had to get out — not just out of the Keys, but out of Florida altogether.

In conclusion:
Do not buy real estate on or near floodplain. You can avoid being a climate refuge due to economic climate displacement. Make sure your property has land ingress and egress from the closest 1,000-year-floodplain. Do not invest in any property located near a coast. Do not invest in a property that is below sea level. Do not invest in real estate located in Florida.

“Mostly stay away from the coasts because of both wind and rain issues from weather systems spinning inland. Even if you are not in a floodplain, a couple feet of rain in a day will cut off roads and overwhelm your sump pumps. Not to speak of wind taking power and telecom down.” — Sidd Mukerhjee (February 5, 2018)

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.