Category: Law

bookmark_borderTrump’s Bankruptcies and the Road to Russia

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Regarding the so-called “peace negotiations” with Russia, this seems like an appropriate moment for a brief refresher on finance and economic incentives.

Trump’s long history of bankruptcies matters here. After repeatedly stiffing lenders and investors, he effectively ran out of credible financing options in the U.S. and much of Europe. Major banks wanted nothing to do with him. Even Deutsche Bank—one of the last large institutions willing to lend—ended up entangled in scandals tied to Trump loans, money laundering probes, and internal compliance failures.

When conventional financing dried up, the remaining capital willing to touch Trump increasingly traced back to opaque, offshore, and Russian-linked sources—often routed through shell companies, private lenders, or intermediaries rather than traditional banks. The Trump SoHo project in NYC was linked to Russian money and figures, facing allegations of being a conduit for money laundering from Eastern Europe, involving shady investors and partners like career criminal Felix Sater, with claims that Russian cash infusions funded units, raising serious questions about Donald Trump’s business dealings and financial scrutiny during the Russia investigation.

That shift wasn’t accidental; it was the consequence of being frozen out of normal markets.

This is why the current situation didn’t come out of nowhere. Financial dependence creates leverage, and leverage shapes behavior. When someone who aspires to power is funded by questionable foreign money after burning every reputable bridge, it raises obvious concerns about influence, loyalty, and national interest.

In short, this isn’t ideology or conspiracy—it’s basic finance and incentives. When you bankrupt your way out of legitimate capital markets, you don’t gain independence; you become dependent on whoever is still willing to write the checks. That dynamic is precisely why critics began referring to Trump, bluntly and colloquially, as “Putin’s little bitch”—not as rhetoric, but as a crude shorthand for perceived financial leverage and resulting deference.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderTrump’s War on Freedom: Deportations, Censorship, and the Assault on the Constitution

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Trump’s war on freedom did not begin with his return to office — but it has accelerated dramatically. What we are witnessing now is not isolated misconduct, but a systematic assault on the Constitution, the free press, and the rule of law.

One of the most alarming developments is the illegal deportation of individuals to El Salvador, often without due process, transparency, or judicial review. People are being removed from the United States not through lawful immigration proceedings, but through executive fiat — a direct violation of constitutional protections and international human rights norms.

The 60 Minutes Segment That Never Aired

In December 2025, these abuses reached a new level of visibility — and suppression.

A 60 Minutes segment titled “Inside CECOT”, which focused on El Salvador’s massive mega-prison now receiving deported migrants from the United States, was abruptly removed from the broadcast schedule just minutes before it was set to air on Sunday, December 21, 2025.

According to reports, the segment had already been fully vetted and cleared by CBS legal counsel. Yet it was still pulled. The journalist involved described the decision as “political.”

That distinction matters.

When a story is cleared by lawyers but killed by executives for political reasons, it is not editorial judgment — it is censorship.

A Pattern, Not an Incident

This was not an isolated decision. It fits a clear and escalating pattern under Trump:

  • Intimidation of media organizations
  • Political pressure on newsroom leadership
  • Attacks on journalists as “enemies”
  • Retaliation against outlets that report inconvenient facts
  • Normalization of executive interference in press coverage

The First Amendment does not exist to protect flattering coverage. It exists precisely to protect journalism that makes those in power uncomfortable.

Suppressing reporting on deportations to foreign prisons — especially facilities known for human rights abuses — is a direct attack on public accountability.

Deportation Without Due Process

Equally disturbing is the policy itself.

The U.S. government is now deporting individuals to El Salvador’s CECOT prison system, a facility internationally criticized for mass incarceration, indefinite detention, and the suspension of civil liberties. These deportations often occur:

  • Without meaningful hearings
  • Without access to legal counsel
  • Without individualized assessments
  • Without public transparency

This is not immigration enforcement. It is extrajudicial punishment.

The Constitution does not grant the executive branch the power to exile people to foreign prisons — especially without due process. That authority simply does not exist.

The Broader Assault on Free Speech

The axing of the 60 Minutes segment is only one example in a much larger campaign against free expression. Trump’s influence has already:

  • Weakened press freedom domestically
  • Encouraged censorship through corporate pressure
  • Exported authoritarian media tactics abroad
  • Enabled monopolistic control of political narratives

These trends are documented in detail here:

Taken together, these are not culture-war skirmishes. They are structural attacks on democratic institutions.

Why This Matters

A free press is not a luxury.
Due process is not optional.
The Constitution is not conditional.

When a president can deport people without lawful process and silence reporting about it, the issue is no longer partisan — it is existential. Democracies do not collapse all at once. They erode through normalization, intimidation, and silence.

Pulling a 60 Minutes investigation is not just a programming decision.
It is a warning sign.

And ignoring warning signs is how freedom is lost.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderTariffs Are Taxes (Just Ask Jim Beam)

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Tariffs are taxes. Full stop.
And like most taxes, they impose economic costs. But unlike many taxes, tariffs are among the most economically damaging because they are regressive, distortionary, and imposed directly on trade flows that sustain growth, employment, and competitiveness.

History and basic economics are unambiguous: taxes rarely generate a net benefit to the economy, and regressive taxes like tariffs impose the highest cost relative to any perceived gain. They raise prices, reduce choice, invite retaliation, and ultimately shrink markets rather than strengthen them.

A clear and sobering example can be found in one of America’s oldest and most iconic brands: Jim Beam.

How Tariffs Destroy Demand

When tariffs raise the cost of a product, consumers do what consumers always do — they substitute cheaper alternatives. This is not theory; it is observable behavior. As prices rise, demand shifts to domestic substitutes or imports from countries not subject to tariffs.

That is exactly what is happening now to American spirits.

According to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS), exports of U.S.-made liquor fell sharply in the second quarter of 2025 as tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump took effect. The American Distilled Spirits Exports 2025 Mid-Year Report shows particularly steep declines in exports to the European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

These markets are not marginal:

  • The EU alone accounted for roughly half of all U.S. spirits exports in 2024
  • Collectively, the EU, Canada, the UK, and Japan represented 70% of total U.S. spirits exports by value

After a record export year in 2024, the reversal has been swift and severe.

“After celebrating a record year for U.S. spirits exports in 2024, this new data is very troubling for U.S. distillers,” said DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger.
“Persistent trade tensions are having an immediate and adverse effect on U.S. spirits exports… signaling a shift away from our great American spirits brands.”

That shift is the inevitable consequence of tariffs.

Canada: The Clearest Case Study

Nowhere is the damage more visible than in Canada.

Trump’s trade war has particularly strained U.S.–Canada relations, prompting widespread consumer boycotts of American goods. As a result:

  • U.S. spirits exports to Canada collapsed by 85%, falling below $10 million in Q2 2025
  • U.S. spirits sales in Canada declined 68% in April 2025
  • Sales of Canadian and other imported spirits rose by roughly 3.6% over the same period

Although Canada formally removed its retaliatory tariff on U.S. spirits on September 1, most Canadian provinces continue to ban American spirits from store shelves. The damage to market access and brand loyalty has already been done.

This is the hidden cost of tariffs: once consumers switch, they often don’t come back.

Jim Beam: An Icon Pays the Price

The consequences are now hitting home.

Jim Beam, a 230-year-old American bourbon brand and one of the most recognizable names in U.S. manufacturing, has announced the closure of its distillery at Happy Hollow in Clermont, Kentucky, ending production there in January 2026. The facility had been in regular operation since Prohibition.

Suntory Holdings, Jim Beam’s parent company, attempted to frame the decision as routine capacity management:

“We are always assessing production levels to best meet consumer demand and recently met with our team to discuss our volumes for 2026.”

But demand does not collapse in a vacuum. It collapses when policy-driven price shocks destroy export markets.

The Larger Economic Lesson

This is not about bourbon alone. It is about how tariffs function in the real economy.

Tariffs:

  • Act as a consumption tax on households
  • Reduce export competitiveness
  • Invite retaliation
  • Shrink foreign markets
  • Force governments into taxpayer-funded bailouts
  • Accelerate consolidation while harming smaller producers

In the end, tariffs do not protect industries — they tax them into contraction.

Jim Beam’s decision is not an anomaly. It is a predictable outcome of a trade policy that ignores basic economics. When you tax trade, trade declines. When trade declines, jobs follow.

Tariffs are not strength.
They are self-inflicted economic damage — and the bill is now coming due.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderTrump’s Second Term, Year One: Forecast Confirmed, Damage Accelerated

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December 18, 2025

Executive Summary

When Donald Trump took office in January 2025 for his second term, we issued a clear forecast: a rapid deterioration in U.S. economic performance driven by protectionism, institutional erosion, policy uncertainty, and hostility toward science and immigration. That forecast has not only proven accurate—it has materialized well ahead of schedule.

The first year of Trump’s second term has been defined by broken promises, contracting manufacturing, weakening employment, rising inflationary pressure, exploding debt, and systemic damage to U.S. credibility. What was presented as economic nationalism has functioned instead as economic self‑harm.

Historical Context: Smoot–Hawley Revisited

History provides a cautionary parallel. The Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which sharply raised U.S. tariffs, triggered retaliatory trade barriers worldwide and materially deepened the Great Depression. Trump’s second‑term policies echo this mistake—only now compounded by executive overreach, the bypassing of Congress, and routine disregard for constitutional constraints.

As a result, the current downturn appears not only real, but accelerating. Many global leaders and economists are not reacting with panic precisely because they expect U.S. instability to be self‑limiting: policy paralysis, electoral backlash, and institutional resistance are likely to curb further damage after the midterms. In that sense, global tolerance reflects grim confidence that the U.S. economy will absorb the shock internally.

Promises Made, Promises Broken

Trump entered his second term claiming he would:

  • Bring down prices on Day One
  • Reshore U.S. manufacturing
  • Increase employment
  • Increase GDP
  • Reduce the national debt
  • Cut taxes

He has failed on every count.

Inflation: Moving the Wrong Direction

Inflation has increased at a time when it should have been declining. Relative to economic conditions, inflationary pressure is now higher than at any point since the pandemic recovery period. Tariffs, supply‑chain disruption, labor shortages, and policy volatility have combined to reverse progress that had already been achieved.

Manufacturing: Contraction, Not Reshoring

U.S. manufacturing has consistently declined since Trump took office in 2025. While the administration has claimed credit for large manufacturing investments, nearly all of the facilities cited were planned, announced, or contractually committed before the election.

More damaging still, Trump’s anti‑science and anti‑immigration posture has convinced much of the world that the United States is no longer a reliable place to invest or trade. This loss of confidence has had concrete consequences:

  • Multiple domestic and foreign firms have cancelled or delayed U.S. manufacturing projects.
  • Hyundai’s U.S. operations were disrupted by enforcement actions that left the company unable to staff skilled positions needed to complete its plant.
  • GM and Ford announced cancellations or significant scale‑backs of U.S. investments following Trump’s reversal on climate policy and electric vehicles.

In a striking contradiction to free‑market rhetoric, Trump has socialized large segments of the economy, with the federal government now holding stakes or exerting direct control over portions of:

  • Steel production
  • Rare earth mineral supply chains
  • Defense contracting
  • Semiconductor manufacturing

This represents one of the most aggressive expansions of state ownership and control in U.S. history. At the same time, Trump’s tariff regime has devastated multiple U.S. sectors—most notably agriculture—by triggering retaliatory trade actions and collapsing export markets. In response to the damage his own policies created, the administration has resorted to large-scale, socialized bailouts totaling tens of billions of dollars, effectively transferring private market losses to taxpayers.

Employment: Softening and Rising Unemployment

Labor market conditions have weakened throughout Trump’s first year back in office. Unemployment reached a new high in November, and forward‑looking indicators suggest further softening. The combination of trade disruption, investment pullbacks, and labor shortages tied to immigration policy has undermined job growth rather than strengthened it.

GDP and Markets: Artificially Propped Up

Headline GDP growth and equity markets are being artificially supported by massive AI‑related capital spending. Strip out this single speculative sector, and the U.S. economy would already be in recession.

Even more concerning, the AI boom bears all the hallmarks of a classic asset bubble. The pattern closely mirrors the speculative excesses that preceded:

  • The dot‑com collapse (2000–2002)
  • The global financial crisis (2008–2009)

In both cases, apparent growth masked deep structural weakness—until the correction arrived.

Debt: Exploding at Record Speed

The national debt has increased faster and by larger absolute amounts than at any point in U.S. history, with repeated trillion‑dollar surges. This expansion has occurred despite promises of fiscal discipline and without corresponding investments that would raise long‑term productivity or growth.

Taxes by Another Name: Tariffs and Uncertainty

Trump has effectively imposed the largest tax increase in U.S. history through tariffs. Tariffs function as a consumption tax, raising prices for households and businesses alike.

Compounding the damage, persistent policy whiplash—often summarized as “TACO” (Tariffs, Abrupt Changes, and Overreach aka Trump Always Chickens Out)—has created extreme uncertainty. Trump has broken or abandoned every major free‑trade agreement with U.S. allies, shredding decades of trust. Rebuilding that credibility will take years, if it is possible at all.

White Nationalism

Finally, and most importantly:
This discussion keeps circling back to selective facts while ignoring the broader ideological context. Trump’s economic program is inseparable from white-nationalist protectionism, xenophobia, and hostility to science and immigration — all of which directly harm labor markets, innovation, and long-term growth. Treating isolated projects as proof of success while ignoring those systemic harms is precisely how propaganda works: narrow focus, emotional certainty, and resistance to contradictory evidence.

Conclusion

One year into Trump’s second term, the results are unmistakable. The economy is weaker, more fragile, and less trusted than it was in 2024. Manufacturing is contracting, inflation is rising, employment is softening, debt is exploding, and growth rests on a narrow speculative bubble.

This outcome was not inevitable. It was forecast—and then fulfilled—by a policy agenda rooted in white nationalism, bigotry, xenophobia, hostility to expertise, and disregard for institutions. The damage done in this first year will outlast the term itself, negatively impacting the U.S. economy for at least a generation.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderThe U.S. Economy into 2026: Tariffs, Immigration, and the AI Paradox

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by Daniel Brouse
December 13, 2025

Introduction

The U.S. economy in 2025 is shaped by three powerful and interacting forces: tariff implementation, restrictive immigration policies, and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Each has distinct economic effects, but taken together they create a complex macroeconomic picture with both upside and risk.

1. Tariffs: A Drag on Growth

Tariffs function effectively as taxes on imported goods and inputs. Higher tariffs increase costs for U.S. producers and consumers, reduce trade volumes, and create uncertainty in supply chains. Empirical research shows that higher tariff rates tend to be negatively correlated with real GDP growth over time, with lagged effects that can take months or years to fully materialize.

Recent macroeconomic forecasts attribute part of the slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to tariff effects. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that rising tariff rates and lower net immigration have weakened growth momentum, even as other sectors contribute positively.

Tariffs also distort reported GDP through accounting effects. When imports fall sharply—as has happened recently—net exports (exports minus imports) mechanically add to GDP growth even when underlying domestic demand remains weak.

Taken together, tariffs are acting as a drag on growth, raising costs and undermining business and consumer demand, even as headline numbers may temporarily mask underlying weakness.

2. Immigration Policy: Labor Market Constraints

Restrictive immigration policies reduce labor supply directly and indirectly. While precise impacts are difficult to quantify in real time, recent scholarly and policy analysis suggests immigration contributes significantly to labor force growth, especially in sectors such as technology, construction, and services.

For example, forecasts indicate that both tariff hikes and lower net immigration contributed to a slower labor market, reducing payroll growth and increasing unemployment rates.

Immigrants accounted for an estimated 80% of U.S. GDP growth from 2020–2025, underscoring their outsized contribution to labor supply and overall economic expansion. A sharp reduction or elimination of immigration therefore constrains the labor force, lowers potential output, and slows GDP growth. While official estimates vary, the underlying mechanism is well established in macroeconomic models and supported by recent forecasts: reduced immigration leads directly to weaker economic growth.

Equally important is the spending behavior of immigrant households. A large share of earned income is spent quickly on goods and services, providing an immediate boost to aggregate demand. In recent months, multiple consumer-facing industries have reported noticeable declines in sales following reductions in immigrant participation in the economy, including beer brands, food producers, and businesses tied to cultural and community celebrations.

3. AI Adoption and Capital Spending: A Temporary Boon?

AI-related investment—particularly in data centers, hardware, and information technology—has become a dominant driver of U.S. GDP growth. Multiple analyses find that AI infrastructure spending alone explained an exceptionally high share of reported GDP growth in 2025. Some estimates show AI-related data center investment accounted for as much as 92% of total GDP growth in the first half of 2025, despite representing a much smaller share of overall GDP.

Capital spending in AI is substantial: hyperscale firms like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Nvidia are expanding data center capacity and hardware investment by the hundreds of billions of dollars annually. These investments act like short-term stimulus, lifting real GDP growth above what it would have been otherwise.

However, long-term returns on all that AI investment remain uncertain from the standpoint of actual productivity realized in final goods and services. Goldman Sachs analysts note that significant portions of AI investment aren’t fully reflected in official GDP statistics because of how intermediate inputs are treated, making accurate measurement difficult.

Moreover, traditional economic models suggest that capital spending without commensurate returns can lead to misallocation, just as excessive leverage did before past financial crashes. If AI capital expenditures do not generate sustainable earnings and broader productivity gains, the long-term macro impact may be weaker than headline growth suggests.

Perhaps most concerning is the emergence of circular financing among hyperscalers. Companies such as NVIDIA are effectively extending credit—directly or indirectly—to other large technology firms so they can purchase NVIDIA’s chips and related infrastructure. With no proven, scalable business model yet established for monetizing many AI applications, this financing structure carries significant risk and could result in losses measured in the hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars. Reflecting these concerns, industry analysts now estimate that at least one-third of all announced data center projects are unlikely to ever be completed.

4. What It All Means

Taken together, these three forces create a fragile economic structure:

  • Tariffs slow trade, raise prices, and dampen business investment.
  • Immigration restrictions weaken labor supply and potential output.
  • AI spending is boosting GDP figures in the short term, but its sustainability and true economic impact remain heavily debated. The industry’s highly leveraged structure raises the risk of a bubble bursting, potentially triggering sharp declines in stock prices. Recent weeks of heightened market volatility suggest that investors are beginning to recognize and price in these risks.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development now projects modest GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, in part because of strong AI-related investment, but also warns that tariff and immigration effects will continue to weigh on growth.

Without AI investment, the economy would likely be much weaker and possibly in contraction, as private domestic demand outside technology sectors has struggled to expand.

5. Risks on the Horizon

There are several risks:

  • Investment sustainability: If hyperscale investments fail to deliver strong returns, both corporate profits and stock valuations could suffer.
  • Leverage and risk: Much of the market’s valuation of AI-linked firms depends on optimistic long-term returns on borrowed capital.
  • Labor displacement: AI-driven automation could reduce employment opportunities without corresponding growth in new job categories.
  • Collapse of circular financing: If one hyperscaler defaults on obligations to another, the interconnected debt structure could trigger a cascading, domino-style failure across the sector.

These risks could amplify the negative effects of tariff-induced cost pressures and labor shortages, creating headwinds for long-term economic resilience.

Conclusion

In 2025, the U.S. economy appears to be a highly concentrated growth story: dependent on AI-related capital spending to offset structural headwinds caused by tariffs and restrictive immigration policies. While headline GDP growth persists, underlying fundamentals point to slowing labor markets, rising costs, and a high degree of reliance on a narrow set of technology investments. The sustainability of this model remains uncertain and will depend critically on whether AI investments translate into broad-based productivity gains and meaningful returns in the years ahead.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderThe New Era of Economic Uncertainty: How Trump’s Tariff Shock Is Breaking America’s Forecasting Models

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Economic forecasting has always carried uncertainty, but under Trump’s current fiscal and trade agenda, that uncertainty has exploded to levels not seen in a century. Policies that economists—left, right, and center—have avoided for 100 years are suddenly being deployed at massive scale. Chief among them: unprecedented import taxation and the largest tariff regime in modern U.S. history.

These policies are not just economically risky—they’re actively destabilizing the tools we rely on to understand the economy. Even the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, one of the most respected real-time forecasting systems, has struggled to capture the resulting volatility.

The First Shockwave: GDP Collapses in Early 2025

During the first quarter of 2025, the GDPNow model projected real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) at –3.7%. The contraction was so sharp that it fell off the scale of standard graph displays.

Crucially, this collapse wasn’t caused by consumer demand or business investment falling apart—it was almost entirely due to the way imports and exports are measured in GDP accounting. With Trump’s tariff schedule looming, businesses launched a massive, front-loaded rush to import goods before the tax hikes hit, causing an artificial spike in imports that mechanically pushed GDP downward.

This is not normal economic behavior. It’s panic behavior—created by policy.

The Tariff Whiplash Effect: Forecasts Go Wild

Once the early-year import surge ended, import levels cratered. Because imports are subtracted in GDP calculations, this plunge created the opposite effect: a predicted surge in GDP growth for late 2025.

Initial projections showed GDPNow spiking to around 5% in Q3 and Q4.

But those optimistic spikes never fully materialized.

The tariffs had a far more damaging, persistent effect on supply chains than anticipated. Import volumes fell harder and for longer than models historically assume possible.

As a result, GDP appears to have briefly peaked at about 4% in November 2025, followed by a rapid decline.

Where the Economy Is Heading Now

Current forecasts show GDP falling sharply again, with projections targeting near 0% growth in the first two quarters of 2026.

And this time, the uncertainty is extreme. Economists describe today’s forecast bands as “cone-of-uncertainty levels wider than during COVID,” because:

  • Tariff effects are non-linear and historically unprecedented
  • Supply chains are behaving unpredictably
  • Consumer prices are destabilizing
  • Business investment is freezing due to policy confusion

In short: upside potential is tiny, but downside risk is enormous.

The Supreme Court Wildcard

One of the biggest unknowns is the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump’s “retaliatory tariffs” are even legal.

If the Court invalidates them abruptly:

  • Imports could surge again
  • Supply chains would be thrown into chaos
  • Businesses would need to reprice and reorder instantly
  • GDP models would again be blindsided

If the Court upholds them, the U.S. remains locked into a historically high-tariff regime that suppresses imports, raises prices, and slows growth.

Either outcome carries major economic shock potential.

Additional Policy Risks on the Horizon

Forecasting also remains clouded by several other Trump-era policy disruptions, each of which could individually affect GDP growth but collectively pose massive systemic risk:

  • Immigration restrictions, which could worsen labor shortages and reduce potential GDP
  • Healthcare policy uncertainty, especially around ACA destabilization
  • Expansion of fossil fuel subsidies, which distort investment flows and long-term energy costs
  • Budgetary unpredictability due to inconsistent fiscal priorities

All of these factors compound the difficulty of projecting the next 12–18 months.

Conclusion: The U.S. Is Entering an Economically Uncharted Era

The combination of unprecedented tariffs, volatile trade behavior, unstable supply chains, and sweeping policy changes has pushed the U.S. economy into a state where traditional forecasting tools are struggling to keep up.

This is not just “normal economic noise.”
This is a result of anti-economic policy design, implemented at a scale large enough to break the models themselves.

Until the policy environment stabilizes—and until the Supreme Court resolves key legal uncertainties—the U.S. economy is likely to remain on a knife’s edge, with enormous downside risk and extremely limited upside potential.

2025 GDP
2025 GDP

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderSmall Businesses Are the First Casualties of Trump’s Tariff Economy — And the Jobs Data Proves It

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The latest employment numbers reveal exactly why small businesses are suing President Trump over his tariff policies: tariffs hit small firms and lower-income consumers the hardest, functioning as a stealth tax that now adds anywhere from 20% to over 50% to the cost of many goods compared with last year.

And the results are now undeniable.

Record Small Business Bankruptcies and a Collapse in Hiring

Small business bankruptcies have surged to record highs, and the newest job numbers show the situation is accelerating.

According to the November 2025 ADP National Employment Report, the private sector saw a net loss of 32,000 jobs. That decline was driven entirely by small businesses, which shed an alarming 120,000 workers in just one month.

ADP’s chief economist, Dr. Nela Richardson, called small firms “a canary in the coal mine” — the first to suffer when consumer demand weakens and operating costs spike. Pay growth for small-firm workers also fell far behind that of larger companies, underscoring how badly the sector is being squeezed.

This isn’t a blip. It’s a structural failure created by policy.

Tariffs Are Functioning as a Massive, Regressive Tax

Unlike large corporations, small businesses don’t have the financial cushion, global supply chains, or pricing power to absorb sudden spikes in import costs. They pay tariffs up front, while their customers — mostly working- and middle-class households — face higher prices at checkout.

That’s why small businesses are paying the equivalent of 20% to over 50% more in real taxes compared with last year. U.S. import prices (excluding the tariff) show that foreign exporters have been raising their prices in dollars. This indicates they are not absorbing much, if any, of the tariff cost.


Tariffs are taxes. And these taxes are crippling the very businesses that drive local economies and job creation.

The Administration Blames… Democrats?

In stark contrast to economic reality, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick declared that the weak job numbers were not caused by tariffs, but instead blamed:

  • the recent government shutdown, and
  • mass deportations,
    as if those weren’t also direct consequences of Trump’s own policies.

Tariffs raised business costs.
The shutdown weakened demand.
Mass deportations removed workers and consumers.
Every explanation points back to the same place.

The Lawsuit Before the Supreme Court

The reason small businesses are currently suing the administration — in a case now before the U.S. Supreme Court — is precisely because Trump’s tariff actions have caused severe, measurable financial harm.

If the Court rules the tariffs illegal (as multiple lower courts already have), businesses want the right to recover the money they were forced to pay. Without that ruling, many of them won’t survive.

Small businesses are not just numbers on a spreadsheet — they’re the backbone of the U.S. economy. And right now, Trump’s tariff regime is breaking that backbone.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderTariffs, Protectionism, and Economic Self-Harm: Why Costco’s Lawsuit Exposes a Bigger National Problem

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Costco Has Sued the U.S. Government — and It Highlights the Bigger Failure of Trump’s Tariff Policy

Costco has filed suit against the U.S. government — specifically U.S. Customs and Border Protection — to preserve its ability to receive a full refund on tariffs it has already paid, should the Supreme Court ultimately rule that President Trump’s tariffs were illegal.

This case is not just about Costco. It is a symptom of the deeper economic damage caused by tariffs and protectionism.

Key Details of the Lawsuit

1. Purpose of the Suit

Filed on November 28, 2025, in the U.S. Court of International Trade, Costco’s lawsuit is not intended to strike down the tariffs directly. Instead, it aims to protect Costco’s right to reclaim the money it paid in tariffs — money that may have been unlawfully collected.

2. The “Liquidation” Deadline

Costco faces a crucial December 15, 2025 deadline for certain import entries to be liquidated (finalized by Customs). Once an entry is liquidated, an importer can permanently lose the right to challenge those charges or receive a refund.

Costco says Customs refused to extend the deadline, leaving the company no choice but to sue immediately to avoid losing millions.

3. Legal Foundation of the Challenge

The lawsuit cites earlier rulings by the Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit, both of which determined that Trump misused the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Those courts concluded the law did not give him the authority to impose the tariffs he enacted.

This core legal issue is now before the Supreme Court.

4. The Supreme Court’s Role

The Supreme Court heard arguments last month and is expected to rule soon on whether the tariffs were illegal. Costco’s lawsuit ensures that if the Court rules against Trump’s authority, Costco will be positioned to receive a refund — potentially tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.

5. Part of a Larger Corporate Pushback

Costco is not alone. Major companies including Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods, and Kawasaki Motors have filed similar suits to preserve their rights to reimbursement. Collectively, these legal actions highlight the widespread financial harm caused by the tariffs.

How Tariffs and Protectionism Damage the Economy

Tariffs Are Taxes on Americans — Not on Foreign Countries

Politicians promote tariffs as “making other countries pay,” but that is unequivocally false.
U.S. businesses pay the tariffs. U.S. consumers pay the higher prices. Tariffs are simply a hidden sales tax.

Tariffs Raise Inflation

Economists across the political spectrum agree: tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, and those costs ripple through supply chains, forcing companies to raise prices.
Trump’s tariffs have contributed significantly to higher costs for:

  • food
  • electronics
  • vehicles
  • building materials
  • clothing
  • household goods

The Costco lawsuit underscores how much corporate America has been forced to absorb — or pass on to consumers.

Protectionism Destroys Jobs Rather Than Creating Them

Tariffs are often sold as “protecting American jobs,” but the historical and empirical record shows:

  • Far more jobs rely on inexpensive imported inputs
  • Retaliatory tariffs reduce U.S. exports
  • Supply chains become strained
  • Manufacturing declines instead of growing

Every time the U.S. has leaned into protectionism (Smoot-Hawley in the 1930s, steel tariffs in the 2000s, Trump’s first-term tariffs), jobs were lost and recessions worsened.

Tariffs Undermine Global Confidence in the U.S. Economy

The Costco lawsuit points to a growing crisis:
If companies believe U.S. policy is arbitrary, unpredictable, or politically motivated, they lose confidence in the U.S. market.

This raises borrowing costs, increases volatility, and weakens the dollar — the exact opposite of what a healthy global reserve currency requires.

Protectionism Hurts Small Businesses the Most

Large companies like Costco can file lawsuits and hedge against risk.
Small businesses cannot. They simply face:

  • higher costs
  • lower profits
  • reduced competitiveness
  • bankruptcy risk

Protectionism is a tax on the middle class and a subsidy for the politically connected.

Conclusion: Costco’s Case Is a Warning Sign

The Costco lawsuit illustrates a much broader economic truth:

Tariffs and protectionism are not “America First.”
They are inflationary, economically destructive, and legally unstable.

If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the U.S. will be forced to face an even harder reality:
The economic damage was unnecessary, self-inflicted, and entirely avoidable.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderThe Trade Deficit Shrinks — and So Does America’s Economic Pulse

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The U.S. trade deficit for August 2025 came in at $59.6 billion, down sharply from a revised $78.2 billion in July. On the surface, this might look like good news for an administration obsessed with shrinking the trade gap. In reality, it is a warning sign — and yet another indictment of Trump’s misguided, economically illiterate trade agenda.

A Smaller Trade Deficit Isn’t a Victory — It’s a Symptom of Weakness
This month’s narrowing was driven almost entirely by a drop in imports, not a boom in exports. That distinction matters. When the U.S. imports less while exporting the same amount, it doesn’t signal economic strength. It signals that consumers and businesses are pulling back, buying fewer goods, delaying purchases, and tightening their belts.

Yes, the change may superficially boost GDP in the quarter — but only because of the way GDP accounting treats imports, not because real economic conditions improved. The underlying truth is the opposite: U.S. economic momentum is slowing.

Trump’s Trade War: A Case Study in Economic Misunderstanding
Trump continues to push the debunked narrative that trade deficits are an economic threat. This belief is not just wrong — it’s dangerous. His policies reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of trade, capital flows, and the basic mechanics of a modern global economy.

For decades, economists have been clear:

  • Trade deficits are not inherently harmful.

  • They often reflect a strong dollar, high consumer demand, and a robust investment climate.

  • Americans benefit from lower-cost imported goods, which raise purchasing power and living standards.

  • Dollars spent on imports frequently return as foreign investment in the U.S., including in Treasury securities, real estate, and American companies — strengthening financial markets and keeping interest rates lower.

Trump’s fixation on eliminating the deficit ignores all of this and instead pushes policies that raise consumer prices, destabilize supply chains, and threaten American jobs, especially in industries dependent on global inputs.

Today’s Numbers Reveal the Truth Hidden Beneath the Headlines
A shrinking deficit due to falling imports is not a sign of a booming America. It is a sign of a cooling domestic economy. Consumers are spending less. Importers are ordering less. Businesses are becoming more cautious.

Trump may tout this as a win. In reality, it’s a red flag — one that economists and anyone paying attention should recognize immediately.

The administration can celebrate a smaller deficit if it wants. But the data tell a different story: America didn’t suddenly start winning; Americans simply started buying less.

Trumpenomics

bookmark_borderTrump’s New Healthcare Pitch: Populist Rhetoric, Policy Confusion, and Economic Reality

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On November 8 and November 18, 2025, Donald J. Trump posted on Truth Social:

“I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money-sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by [the] Affordable Care Act, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE, and have money left over.”

News outlets including The Economic Times, WBMA, and Becker’s Payer Issues confirmed the statement and reported on its implications.

What Trump Claims

Trump argues that federal subsidies supporting Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans should no longer go to insurance companies. Instead, he proposes sending those funds “directly to individuals,” framed as a way to bypass insurers and supposedly empower consumers with more choice and better coverage.

What the Policy Actually Means

While the message sounds populist — “give the money to the people, not the insurers” — the proposal reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of how healthcare markets and subsidies work:

1. ACA subsidies do not go to insurers as a “gift.”
They reduce premiums for individuals. Insurers receive the subsidy only because they are providing the actual coverage. Redirecting these funds directly to consumers without regulating plan standards would effectively eliminate guaranteed essential benefits, caps on out-of-pocket costs, and protections for the sick.

2. Sending money “directly to individuals” is a euphemism for deregulating the insurance market.
This is an old proposal: replace the ACA with under-regulated, low-coverage “junk plans,” shifting the burden of cost onto consumers. People with preexisting conditions — more than half the U.S. population — would face significantly higher premiums or lose coverage entirely.

3. The math doesn’t work.
ACA subsidies are calibrated to actual market premiums. Sending the same dollar amount to individuals without requiring insurers to offer affordable, comprehensive plans guarantees that premiums will surge, forcing families to make up the difference out of pocket.

4. It mirrors Trump’s 2017 sabotage of cost-sharing subsidies.
That move immediately increased premiums by 20–40% in many states and raised the federal deficit. Economists widely expect the same outcome — only worse — if subsidies are dismantled at the structural level.

Why Economists Call This “Unworkable”

Trump’s proposal would effectively dismantle the ACA without offering a functional replacement, a scenario every major nonpartisan economic and health-policy institution has warned against. The likely consequences include:

  • Higher costs for consumers, not lower
  • Collapse of the individual insurance market
  • Reduced coverage quality
  • Loss of protections for millions
  • Large increases in the deficit due to insurance market re-pricing

This isn’t a reform—it’s a return to the pre-ACA chaos where insurers could deny coverage, drop patients, or create plans that covered little beyond catastrophic events.

Populist Packaging, Policy Vacuum

Trump’s post frames the ACA as a “bad” system propped up by “money-sucking insurance companies,” a narrative designed to evoke anger rather than convey policy clarity. In practice, the proposal would weaken consumer protections, raise out-of-pocket costs, and destabilize the insurance market.

The rhetoric may sound appealing — cut out the middleman! — but healthcare doesn’t work like sending out stimulus checks. Healthcare requires functioning risk pools, regulated coverage standards, and stable markets. Removing these foundations destabilizes the entire system.

The Bottom Line

Trump’s proposal isn’t a plan to improve healthcare.
It is a plan to defund the ACA, cripple insurance markets, and shift the burden of healthcare costs back onto American families — while marketing the move as empowerment.

What looks like a simple slogan is, in reality, a dramatic policy shift with serious economic and health consequences.

Trumpenomics