“There has been a 500% increase in the US drought area,” said Al Roker of the Today show while reporting on 2020 being tied for the hottest year.
The Washington Post reports, “Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021.” [1}
“The impact of desertification is intensifying due to climate change, which is reducing the availability of freshwater, fertile soil, and forest and vegetation. As the degraded land loses value, investments in agriculture and rural development decline even more.” — Ban Ki-moonUnited Nations Secretary-General [2}
This doesn’t have to do with drought episodes. It has to do with areas prone to having droughts. As the area of land that is prone to flooding is increasing exponentially, so too is the land prone to severe, long term drought. We make it even worse by pumping ground water out for agriculture. This depletes the aquifers. The result is sinking land and rising sea levels. The depleted fresh water is then intruded by salt water. Salt water intrusion has a severe impact on the world food supply.
So, you have rising seas above and below the land. Compounding the problem — water expands when it gets warmer. About 1/3 of the rise in sea level is due to thermal expansion of water. [Volumetric Thermal Expansion] The warmer sea water also melts sea ice. The ocean doesn’t reflect the energy the way ice does. In fact just he opposite, the ocean absorbs the heat… making the water warmer… melting more sea ice…. and warming the planet. Which melts the land ice, which raises the sea level. A vicious feedback cycle of fresh water depletion and sea level rise has been created.
Climate change is making weather events more extreme and more frequent. More severe droughts, more severe floods, etc. Energy is being added to the system. “Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in many parts of the United States and the world in the decades ahead. A changing climate can also alter atmospheric rivers (narrow streams of moisture transported in the atmosphere), which can especially disrupt precipitation patterns in the Western United States. Droughts can persist through a “positive feedback,” where very dry soils and diminished plant cover can further suppress rainfall in an already dry area.” [3]
“Risks from desertification are projected to increase due to climate change (high confidence). The combination of pressures coming from climate variability, anthropogenic climate change and desertification will contribute to poverty, food insecurity, and increased disease burden (high confidence).” [4]
1. Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021. (The Washington Post)
2. DESERTIFICaTION (United Nations)
3. Drought and Climate Change (Center for Energy and Climate Solutions)
4. SPECIAL REPORT: Climate Change and Land Desertification (International Panel on Climate Change)