bookmark_borderSea Level Rise and Real Estate in Florida

The Tampa Bay Times reports: Your Florida coastal home could lose 15% of its value by 2030 due to sea rise

 

Increasing sea rise is going to water down the value of some of the most coveted and expensive real estate in Florida, and insurance rates will go up too.

That’s the conclusion of a pair of new reports calculating just how much of an impact climate change will have on Florida’s real estate industry.

A report from international consulting giant McKinsey released Thursday found that Florida homes subject to the risk of flooding could lose 5 to 15 percent of their value in the next decade, barring any significant changes to the market in that time. By 2050, that could leap to 15 to 35 percent.

In another Miami-Dade-focused report from Jupiter Intelligence, researchers found that moderate flooding of about a foot will affect nearly double the number of homes by 2050.

More About Flood Insurance

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderBittle at the Baffler on Floods and Sea Level Impacts in the USA

Bittle at the Baffler on flood and sea level impacts in the USA:

“a neighborhood that feels more like an unclaimed frontier than a subdivision in one of the nation’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. Dogs run free across acres of empty land, the sound of a falling acorn echoes for blocks”

“Funded by the federal government, local governments in coastal states are buying out thousands of homes in vulnerable areas every year, reshaping and breaking up communities as they go. In their wake, the departed residents of these communities have left what may be the country’s first climate ghost towns, abandoned places made uninhabitable by the warming of the planet.”

“the federal bureaucracy tasked with handling response to these disasters still treats them as individual events rather than constituent parts of a larger crisis”

“No one would argue that these projects are useless, but they represent an outmoded way of thinking, one that assumes Mother Nature wreaks havoc in a relatively stable and predictable manner. Recent storm events in particular have disproved that assumption, becoming so monstrous and erratic over the past decade as to make designing the flood barriers of the 2030s and the 2040s a task akin to dressing for the weather on this day ten years from now.”

“what about the lessons no one sees coming? The other question, of course, is why invest in a barricade that you know will someday burst, if not in the 2040s then in the 2050s?”

“While the program often had to borrow money from the Treasury, the sums were once small and quickly repaid. But as the pace of natural disasters has escalated, the cost of flood recovery has outstripped the amount the program’s five million participating households can afford to pay into the central pot, and it has fallen into unprecedented debt. ”

“one house in Houston that flooded on twenty-two separate occasions between 1979 and 2017, filing an insurance claim each time.”

“The people who continue to live in these areas are doing something so risky that the government will at some point no longer be able to subsidize it, whether by repairing homes after a flood or fortifying them against the next one. ”

” “You have some places where there are high property values, high development, and people are incentivized to build there,” she says—think South Beach or the Hamptons. “But then you have these other communities in the same states, where [people are] not living there because it’s prime real estate or they’re wealthy, they’re living there because they historically can’t afford to live anywhere else.” ”

“Where buyouts do occur, they lead to different outcomes for the rich and the poor, disproportionately benefiting wealthier and whiter families who have the means to sustain themselves as they buy new houses and settle in new communities.”

“Even if New York City one day builds a seawall around Manhattan, protecting the East Village forever from the kind of dissolution that took place in Arbor Oaks, hundreds of smaller and less affluent communities will fall apart piece by piece in the coming decades as the storms continue.”

“Americans displaced by weather events often have at most the right to material compensation for whatever property they lost during a natural disaster. Such a system, pegged as it is to real estate valuations, will always reproduce the inequality that existed prior to the catastrophe, if it doesn’t make that inequality even worse.”

“In 2018, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finally released new rainfall predictions for Texas, the agency found that storms which were previously considered once-in-a-century events could now be expected every twenty-five years.”

“When the new maps take effect in the early 2020s, Wade says, the floodplain will get much larger … the floodplain area will likely expand from a thin stripe on either side of a creek into a swath of land a mile wide, covering thousands of homes and businesses. ”

“A lot of our job, really, is to physically uncover the environment so we can have a more resilient place,”

” “[There] are entire neighborhoods that are now within the hundred-year floodplain,” and many residents are living there because that’s what they can afford. They aren’t likely to find comparable housing elsewhere for what the county can offer them in a buyout.”

“Our future is part of what we lost,”

“families who can’t move or don’t want to will become the living collateral of the retreat process, their neighborhoods emptied and lives uprooted because of forces well beyond their control: not only the weather itself, but the policies of the people who govern them. ”

https://thebaffler.com/salvos/on-the-waterfronts-bittle

Do you need flood insurance?

  • Homeowners insurance does NOT cover flooding
  • Flood insurance is obtained through the government’s flood insurance program
  • Flood insurance does not cover the basement of a house
  • Flood insurance covers a lifetime maximum of $250,000 in coverage
    This means if you make a claim for $150,000 the maximum coverage for the life of the property drops to $100,000.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderClimate Crisis Update

Florida town dealing with sea level rise
“Our risk is undeniable. The modelers get it. The mortgage institutions get it. Insurance gets it.”
https://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/2019/12/27/a-south-florida-towns-pioneering-plan-to-fund-retreat-from-sea-rise/

sea level rise and storm surge
“every 10cm of sea level rise increases the frequency of a given coastal flood by a factor of three.”

“This means that 10cm of sea level rise will turn a one-in-100-year coastal flood into a one-in-33-year event. With another 10cm of sea level rise, it becomes a one-in-11-year event, and so on.”

“A 10cm rise in sea levels might translate to 30 or 40 metres of inland movement of the high tide line”

“Another 30cm of sea level rise is already â??baked inâ??, guaranteed over the next 40 years, regardless of what happens with greenhouse gas emissions and action on climate change. By the end of the century, at least another 20cm on top of that is virtually certain.”

“The 30cm rise multiplies the chances of coastal flooding by a factor of around 27 (3x3x3) and 50cm by the end of the century increases coastal flooding frequency by a factor of around 250. That would make the one-in-100-year coastal flood likely every few months”

In reality we may see 200 cm sea level rise by 2100, and 100 cm by 2050

https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-coastal-floods-are-becoming-more-frequent-as-seas-rise-127202

Panama Canal hit by climate change
” recurrent droughts caused by climate change are the main threat to the 80 kilometer-long canal ”

“A historic deficit of rainfall has lowered the water level in the lakes which supply the Canal and the “challenge is now to find the solution to this lack of water for the next 50 years,” he explained. ”

“the temperature of Gatun Lake, the main tributary of the Canal, has increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past ten years, which causes significant loss of water by evaporation.”

“Panama is studying the possibility of finding other freshwater resources for the Canal, such as pumping or desalinating seawater, or even building reservoirs.”

https://phys.org/news/2019-12-panama-years-canal-climate-threat.html

Do you need flood insurance?

  • Homeowners insurance does NOT cover flooding
  • Flood insurance is obtained through the government’s flood insurance program
  • Flood insurance does not cover the basement of a house
  • Flood insurance covers a lifetime maximum of $250,000 in coverage
    This means if you make a claim for $150,000 the maximum coverage for the life of the property drops to $100,000.

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderMortgage-backed Securities Exposed to Coastal Flooding Risk

An article in the Business Telegraph entitled “Climate change: the CMBS angle” explains:

“… $56bn in commercial mortgage-backed securities that are exposed to coastal flooding risk in the US, and it’s not pretty viewing.”

“It is often asked why US politicians are blasé about climate change, but we may suggest that will all change if the real estate of their high-profile donors begins to shed value as it slips into the sea. Suddenly, a Green New Deal, perhaps with state-subsidised housing insurance for victims of flooding, may not sound quite so bad.”

Coastal Flooding Risk Map
Coastal Flooding Risk Map

bookmark_borderClimate Change Disasters Scare Off Insurance Industry

Australian insurance companies are becoming leery of insuring high risk properties.

Climate change disasters could scare off the Australian home insurance industry

“The idea of parts of Australia being so exposed to natural disasters that they aren’t able to get home insurance seems scary but that’s exactly what insurers are warning of as climate change boosts the frequency of extreme weather events.”

The rise of red zones of risk

Dramatic hikes in insurance premiums combined with tighter lending in response to climate risk could trigger a wider property market correction, according to leading climate risk analyst Karl Mallon.

The warning comes as new analysis from his firm Climate Risk shows the number of “uninsurable” addresses in Australia is projected to double by the turn of the century to nearly 720,000 — or one in 20 — if nothing is done to address escalating risk from extreme weather and climate change.

Thousands more will see their insurance premiums double or even triple within decades, the data reveals.

bookmark_borderFinancial Risks From Climate Change

A New York Times Report on Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

* Home values could fall significantly.

* Banks could stop lending to flood-prone communities.

* Towns could lose the tax money they need to build sea walls and other protections.

* Volatility related to climate change has become “increasingly relevant” as a consideration for the central bank.

The Full Federal Reserve Report
Volume 14 , Issue 1, 2019Community DevelopmentINNOVATION REVIEW

climeate-change-risk-federal-reserve

bookmark_borderClimate Change, Real Estate Mortgages, Flood Insurance and You

From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-mortgages-idUSKBN1WE0D3

“The market’s failure to integrate climate science with investment analysis has created a mispricing phenomenon that is possibly larger than the mortgage credit bubble of the mid-2000s”

“a key culprit for the mispriced risk in the U.S. mortgage market is outdated flood maps drawn by the federal government.”

“Due to budget cuts, more than three-quarters of the maps have not been updated in at least five years”

“Outdated maps mean far fewer people are required to have flood insurance than are at risk,”

“The gaps are evident: About 70% of all damages to homes that were flooded during Harvey were not covered by insurance”

“the gaps mean the risk is not properly priced. The cost for an average policy in low-risk Green Bay, Wisconsin, for example, is three times that in Gulfport, Mississippi, a town devastated by Hurricane Katrina”

“The Federal Emergency Management Agency has said it aims to fix some of these problems with a major risk re-rating on Oct. 1, 2020.”

“Burt’s bet is that the move will result in significant cost increases. That in turn will lead to home price declines and mortgage losses, which would increase volatility in RMBS prices.”

“He expects a correction beginning in the next 6-18 months. ”

“Investors also have been taking on more risk. Some RMBS issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae since 2017, called credit risk transfer (CRT) deals, move the risk of default to the investors. In traditional agency RMBS, Fannie and Freddie cover those losses. “

bookmark_borderOcean Front Property

Sidd said:

It has been fifteen years i think i said
“The ocean is very large and wants in your basement”

Nyhoo, here’s an article

https://news.sky.com/story/dont-buy-coastal-properties-un-scientists-issue-stark-warning-on-climate-11819030

No part of the planet will be spared a climate crisis as oceans warm and glaciers and ice sheets melt, according to a report by United Nations scientists.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns one billion people will be affected as soon as 2050 because of rising sea levels, water shortages and food insecurity.

The report, compiled by more than 100 leading climate scientists, calls for urgent, ambitious and coordinated action.

The findings are corroborated by scientists in the Arctic, who showed Sky News evidence of “unprecedented” ice melt. One cautioned against buying coastal property.

bookmark_borderFlood Insurance Risk

From

https://urbanland.uli.org/sustainability/investors-and-bond-rating-analysts-are-working-to-quantify-risks-from-climate-change/

Bonds, insurance, climate risk: “a cataclysmic issue”

“Going forward, cities that lack the resources to invest in climate remediation may see their credit ratings decline as result”

“Those longer-term risks “are not priced into the market today,”

He cited the difficulty of evaluating the flood risk for a regional mall that sits atop a hill. Whereas the mall itself might not be at risk for flooding, “how do people get to you? Your inventory will be fine, but nobody will be there to buy it,” he said. “It’s more of an issue than just your physical building.”

“damage from rare extreme weather events did not have a significant effect on value because buildings almost always could be repaired. But with catastrophic storms and floods becoming more frequent in some areas, the value of the underlying land will be at risk as well. Insurers are not going to protect property owners against the risk that they will not be able to find a future buyer, he said.”

“By the third flood, prospective buyers know you have a waterlogged building,” Glendon said. “And you lose land value.”

“The rising threat to value from climate change will not be borne by insurance companies because they can re-price coverage, Glendon said. “The risk is for the people who hold the mortgages.”