Category Archives: Environment

Environment

The 2025 Cost of Climate Change in the United States

Estimating the Per-Person Economic Burden of Extreme Weather, Insurance Destabilization, Climate Inflation, and Health Impacts A reasonable all-in estimate for the 2025 economic burden of climate change on the United States is about $1.5 trillion, or roughly $4,400 per person. For a family of four, the implied annual burden is roughly $17,600. That burden extends […]

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A Coupled Framework for Compression of Climate Impact Doubling Times

Climate Jerk in Socio-Ecological Systems By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Conventional climate-risk analysis often treats impacts as the downstream consequence of physical hazard intensification alone. In this framing, rising losses, displacement, mortality, infrastructure disruption, and systemic instability are interpreted primarily as a function of increasing temperature, precipitation extremes, sea-level rise, or other physical […]

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Climate Acceleration in Socio-Ecological Systems

Climate Jerk in Socio-Ecological Systems: Measurement, Governance, and Hazard Coupling in a Non-Stationary Earth System By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee This paper proposes a reframing of “climate jerk” (the third derivative of climate-impact variables) as not solely a property of physical climate dynamics, but as an emergent property of measurement systems, governance regimes, and […]

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Climate Displacement and Nonlinear Acceleration: When Extreme Weather Becomes a Systemic Driver of Human Mobility

By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Climate displacement is often framed as a humanitarian consequence of storms, floods, droughts, wildfires, and sea-level rise. That framing is correct but incomplete. The deeper problem is that climate displacement is increasingly emerging from a nonlinear Earth system in which multiple climate hazards are intensifying simultaneously and interacting […]

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The Compression of Doubling Times Across Earth-System Indicators: Evidence for Increasing Nonlinearity in the Climate System

By Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee June 18, 2026 Abstract Much of the climate literature focuses on trends, rates of change, and acceleration. While acceleration provides evidence that climate change is progressing faster over time, it does not fully capture whether the system itself is becoming increasingly nonlinear. We propose an alternative observational framework based […]

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Climate Indicator Doubling Times

If doubling times are shortening across multiple indicators, that is evidence that the system is becoming increasingly nonlinear regardless of how one chooses to normalize the data. Framework For any indicator:Td=ln⁡(2)kT_d = \frac{\ln(2)}{k}Td​=kln(2)​ where kkk is the observed exponential growth rate. The key quantity becomes:dTddt\frac{dT_d}{dt}dtdTd​​ If doubling times themselves are shrinking through time, the system […]

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Observational Evidence for Climate Jerk: Multidisciplinary Indicators of Accelerating Climate Acceleration

by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Climate change is commonly described in terms of warming rates and, more recently, climate acceleration. However, a growing body of observational evidence suggests that many climate indicators are exhibiting not merely acceleration, but acceleration of acceleration—a phenomenon known in physics as jerk, the third derivative of change with […]

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Beyond Average Warming: Temperature Extremes, Nighttime Heat, and the Emergence of Climate Jerk

Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee Abstract Global mean surface temperature is the most widely cited metric of climate change. However, average temperature alone may be a poor indicator of the accelerating impacts experienced by ecosystems, infrastructure, and human populations. Because averages compress information, they can obscure critical changes occurring in the tails of temperature distributions, […]

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Stochastic Noise in Climate and Physical Modeling

1. Overview Stochastic noise refers to random, unpredictable fluctuations introduced into mathematical systems in order to represent processes that are too small, too fast, or too complex to be explicitly resolved. In climate science and physics, stochastic noise is used to replace missing sub-grid-scale dynamics with statistically consistent variability, ensuring that deterministic equations better reflect […]

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Observational Evidence of Climate Jerk

by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee The defining characteristic of a singularity is not merely rapid change, but a continuously increasing rate of acceleration. In mathematical terms, the system exhibits a positive third derivative—commonly referred to as “jerk.” While global surface temperature remains the most widely cited climate metric, several other indicators provide clearer evidence […]

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