by Daniel Brouse
August 20, 2025
Trump’s latest wave of tariffs is already sending shockwaves through the U.S. agricultural sector, with soybean farmers among the hardest hit. The American Soybean Association has warned that many growers may lose their farms this year, as the trade disruptions come at a critical moment in the harvesting season.
Soybean producers were still struggling to recover from Trump’s first trade war with China in 2019. Before that conflict, China accounted for 33% of U.S. soybean exports. That share collapsed after China retaliated with tariffs, and even by 2024, the market had only clawed back to 25% of pre-trade war levels. In other words, farmers were still operating below historical export norms when Trump reignited protectionist battles in 2025.
This year, the damage has been swift and severe. Typically, by this point in the season, about 10% of the U.S. soybean crop would already be under contract with China. Instead, there have been zero new contracts. Buyers in Beijing are turning to Brazil, which has rapidly expanded its agricultural capacity in recent years. Ironically, even though the U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, Chinese buyers are more than willing to pay for Brazilian soy rather than navigate the uncertainty and higher costs of American exports.
The economic fallout extends far beyond the farm. With fewer contracts, rural communities are losing vital income, credit markets that finance farm operations are tightening, and American consumers face the risk of higher food prices. To make matters worse, grain operators in rural areas are refusing to accept soybeans from local farmers unless the crops are already under contract—pushing many small farmers to the brink of collapse. Meanwhile, Brazil is solidifying its position as the world’s dominant soybean exporter, seizing on U.S. trade instability to expand its global market share.
The president of the American Soybean Association summed it up starkly: these tariffs are “destroying U.S. soybean farmers.” Without swift policy changes, this year may mark not just another setback but a permanent loss of market share that America never regains.