bookmark_border10% of Canadian Homes Uninsurable Due to Extreme Weather and the Climate Crisis

The Guardian reports The uninsurables: how storms and rising seas are making coastlines unliveable.

“In Canada, the number of uninsurable homes has reached 10%, according to industry figures. The Magdalen archipelago is losing half a metre each year to erosion, roads have fallen into the sea and the sand dunes that once offered protection from squalls are disappearing faster than they can be saved, but it is not just there. Most of Canada’s major cities are built on the frontlines of a changing climate – along rivers and coastlines or on flood plains.”

“Over the past 15 years, insurance claims from severe weather events in Canada – windstorms, flooding, wildfire and drought – have more than quadrupled. Seven of the country’s costliest disasters occurred in the last decade. Insurers now expect to disburse C$2bn (£1.3bn) in disaster-related payouts annually, with costs only expected to rise.”

“A federally run fund, meant to help communities build disaster-resilient infrastructure, is quickly running out of money years before it expires at the end of the decade. It has already received far more requests than it can pay for, and despite the federal government repeatedly topping it up, more than half of the money has been spent.”

“Without any sort of concerted effort or gameplan, that figure will only grow. We’re continuing to build in harm’s way, largely on water, because that’s where people love to be. And the modelling shows that these storm events are just going to become more frequent and more intense in the years ahead,” says Craig Stewart, vice-president of the IBC’s climate change and federal issues portfolio. “The risk is growing. And so far, our efforts at risk reduction have been terrible.”

“The private market, on its own, cannot handle the level of risk that’s escalating in the system without some sort of formal government backstop or direct participation.”

In the US, Florida has blocked insurers from withdrawing from the market for at least two months after Hurricane Ian. Officials in the US have also warned residents about the dangers of rebuilding in areas likely to suffer weather-related disasters.

In November 2021, a powerful “atmospheric river”, a plume of water-laden air, led to widespread flooding in the province of British Columbia. Highways and bridges were washed away and thousands of homes – built on an old lake bed that was a known flood plain – were submerged in turbid waters. The damage cost insurers nearly C$675m – with billions more in uninsured costs having to be borne by residents and government.

The floods also hit the town of Lytton, British Columbia, which a few months earlier had been the site of scorching temperatures before it was all but destroyed by a wildfire. In the aftermath, the uncertainty of how to rebuild – or whether to rebuild – has become a flashpoint.

“There was conflict between people who wanted to rebuild Lytton better, and those who were traumatised by the fire and they wanted to put their lives back together as quickly as possible without any change,” says Porter. “They didn’t want to be told what to do. They didn’t want outsiders coming in and telling them you must change your life in such a way.”

Governments are bracing for the mounting costs from extreme weather to upend life in cities. A recent report warned that floods and droughts could cost the global economy US$5.6tn by 2050.

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bookmark_borderHurricane Ian: Florida Becoming Uninhabitable

October 2, 2022

How long would it take to go 100% green?
“It depends on cooperation. If we all cooperated, we could change over within 6 months. However, we don’t expect the climate deniers will cooperate. In the meantime, many countries plan to reduce fossil fuels by 2030. Some countries, such as China, are building nuclear plants. The UK will transition from natural gas to green hydrogen with most of the regulations in place by 2030.”

“The key to how fast the US transitions is in the cost to ourselves (since we don’t seem to care about the rest of the world.) This can already be seen in Florida and Louisiana where almost all of the homeowners/hazard insurance companies have pulled out. FEMA is a good place to focus our forecasts. FEMA’s flood insurance is the only government subsidized insurance available to everybody. When the government stops subsidizing extreme weather events, you will see an instant turnover to 100% green. The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is growing exponentially; therefore, we expect FEMA will be bankrupted in short order. At that time, much of US real estate will become worthless and the cost of burning fossil fuels will be deemed too costly. The people impacted by financial and life losses will litigate the fossil fuel industry out-of-business,” said climate scientist Daniel Brouse.

The Costs of Climate Change
Hurricane Ian will be one of the most costly disasters on record, both in terms of money and lives. Over 2 million people lost power. Roads and bridges were destroyed. Some inhabited islands literally got washed away. The hurricane was so powerful that it is difficult to calculate the number of deaths as the bodies can not be found.

The Insurance Journal reports:
Wind and storm-surge losses from Hurricane Ian could reach as $47 billion in Florida alone, a figure made larger by inflation and rising interest rates, the property analytics firm CoreLogic said in a new analysis.

“This is the costliest Florida storm since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992 and a record number of homes and properties were lost due to Hurricane Ian’s intense and destructive characteristics,” said Tom Larsen, associate vice president for hazard and risk management at CoreLogic.

“Hurricane Ian will forever change the real estate industry and city infrastructure,” Larsen said in a news release. “Insurers will go into bankruptcy, homeowners will be forced into delinquency and insurance will become less accessible in regions like Florida.”

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderRising Sea Levels: 100’s of 1,000’s of Buildings in Danger of Submerging by 2050

Real estate across millions of acres in the United States are projected to be submerged under seawater by 2050 as reported in Sinking Tax Base Land and Property at Risk from Rising Seas.

ZME science summarizes the findings as follows:
The research group Climate Central, a nonprofit that analyzes and reports on climate science, looked at sea level rise that has been projected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), tidal boundary lines, and records of more than 50 million properties in coastal areas. When they put everything together, they found that about 650,000 individual properties are most at risk of being flooded within the next three decades.

The state of Louisiana has the largest percentage of homes and other buildings at risk, with over 25,000 properties across over one million hectares expected to fall below tide level boundaries by 2050. This means that 8.7% of the state’s total land area could be filled with seawater. However, Louisiana is far from being the only one on the list.

Florida, Texas, and North Carolina are the next three states that are more at risk, accounting for 87% of the land area expected to be lost to the sea. New York, New Jersey, and Maryland were also identified by the researchers as states that are likely to have thousands of properties, from homes to office buildings, flooded in the coming years.

Don Bain, one of the authors of the study, told The Washington Post that the analysis should be a wake-up call for communities that have to adapt to sea level rise as a direct consequence of the climate crisis. “People really haven’t internalized that yet — that ‘Hey, I’m going to have something taken away from me by the sea.’” Bain said.

Scientists have repeatedly warned that the carbon built up in the atmosphere after generations of burning fossil fuels would lead to an increasing level rise. Earlier this year, NOAA found that sea levels could rise along US coastlines by about a foot between now and 2050, which is as much change in three decades as over the past century.

NOAA says, “For businesses along the coast, knowing what to expect and how to plan for the future is critical,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “These updated projections will help businesses, and the communities they support, understand risks and make smart investments in the years ahead.”

“This new data on sea rise is the latest reconfirmation that our climate crisis ⁠— as the President has said ⁠— is blinking ‘code red,’” said Gina McCarthy, National Climate Advisor. “We must redouble our efforts to cut the greenhouse gases that cause climate change while, at the same time, help our coastal communities become more resilient in the face of rising seas.”

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderMelting of Greenland Ice Cap is Inevitable

“Major sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice cap is ‘now inevitable'”

In 1995, I was convinced climate change was happening at an exponential rate; however, Sidd said we need more data over a longer time period. (The consensus at the time was it was linear, and we had thousands of years to solve the problem.)

It took until 2004 for Sidd to collect enough data. Indeed, we proved it… using sea level rise and Greenland’s ice sheets.

A new study has been published showing that even if we stopped greenhouse gas emissions today, Greenland’s ice sheet would continue to melt raising the sea level by at least 27 centimeters.

The Guardian reported:
“It is a very conservative rock-bottom minimum,” said Prof Jason Box from the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Geus), who led the research. “Realistically, we will see this figure more than double within this century.”

“The minimum of 27cm is the sea-level rise deficit that we have accrued to date and it’s going to get paid out, no matter what we do going forward,” said Dr William Colgan, also at Geus. “Whether it’s coming in 100 years or 150 years, it’s coming. And the sea-level rise we are committed to is growing at present, because of the climate trajectory we’re on.”

Colgan said: “If [2012] becomes a normal year, then the committed loss grows to 78cm, which is staggering, and the fact that we’re already flickering into that range [of ice loss] is shocking. But the difference between 78cm and 27cm highlights the [difference] that can be made through implementing the Paris agreement. There is still a lot of room to minimise the damage.”
“There is growing support in the scientific literature for multi-metre levels of rise within the next 100 to 200 years,” said Colgan. A collapse of the colossal east Antarctic ice sheet, which would lead to a 52-metre rise in sea levels if it all melted, could be averted if rapid climate action is taken.

Prof Gail Whiteman, at the University of Exeter, who was not part of the study team, said: “The results of this new study are hard to ignore for all business leaders and politicians concerned about the future of humanity. It is bad news for the nearly 600 million people that live in coastal zones worldwide. As sea levels rise, they will be increasingly vulnerable, and it threatens approximately $1tn of global wealth.” She said political leaders must rapidly scale up funding for climate adaptation and damage.

Read the report from the journal Nature Climate Change: Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Boycott fossil fuels. Save the planet. Save our souls. (SOS)

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Rising Sea Levels

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

bookmark_borderThe End of Days: Floods

While record breaking droughts have been recorded on 5 of the 6 continents Africa, Australia, North and South America, and Eurasia, parts of the world are also seeing recorded breaking floods.

“A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per 1.8°F (1°C) of warming—and scientists have already observed a significant increase in atmospheric moisture due to the air’s ability to hold more moisture as it warms,” reports Climate Signals.

The increased moisture in the air can create atmospheric rivers.

As the Earth warms, the air will hold more moisture. More moisture-laden air moves over land and creates atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express). The Journal EOS in the article Atmospheric Rivers Spur High-Tide Floods on U.S. West Coast said, “Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture that travel across the lower troposphere, generally at the leading edges of massive low-pressure systems. At their peak, they can carry as much water through the sky as the Amazon River does on land. They unleash intense winds and heavy rain as they surge across the Pacific Ocean, eventually making landfall on the U.S. West Coast, contributing to many high-tide flooding events.”

The atmospheric rivers also bring heavy rainfall inland causing extreme flooding.

2022 has brought record flooding to much of the world:

* All across Appalachian Eastern Kentucky, the story of flood victims is the same: Homes that they had lived in for decades, properties that were safe for generations were wiped out by a 1,000-year flood of torrential rain. — Time

“My papaw was almost 80 years old. He lost everything in the house that he has lived in since he was two years old,” says Lakyn Bolen, 26, a resident of Knott County, where 14 inches of rain fell. “It’s nothing that we’re used to, we don’t get stuff like this. And the thing is, a lot of the people in this area don’t have flood insurance because they’re not even in a flood zone.”

* Residents in the area of Dallas, Texas are recovering from torrential rains and floodwaters that inundated entire neighborhoods and roads and prompted dozens of high-water rescues this week. More than 100 homes have been damaged after parts of the Dallas area saw more than 10 inches of rainfall on Monday. Flooding also caused sanitary sewers to overflow in several locations. — CNBC

* Officials hope to fully reopen the main highway from Los Angeles to Phoenix by early next week after a flash flood washed out part of the road through the Southern California desert. — AP

* After record-setting rainfall this week, Jackson, Mississippi, is preparing for the Pearl River to reach 36 feet by Tuesday, leading to flooded streets. — CNN

* Authorities in eastern New Mexico on Wednesday warned residents of continued flooding along the Pecos River. Storm runoff has led to historic flows, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a flood warning for the area near Lake Arthur. — AP

* SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — An Arizona woman has died after she was swept away during flash flooding four days ago at Utah’s Zion National Park, officials said Tuesday. — AP

* The Pakistan floods have been compared to The End of Days with desperation and displacement in Sindh province. The floods have killed nearly 1,000 people across Pakistan since June, while thousands have been displaced – and millions more affected. The full scale of the devastation in the province is yet to be fully understood – but the people described it as the worst disaster they’ve survived. Floods are not uncommon in Pakistan, but people here said these rains were different – more than anything that’s ever been seen. One local official called them “floods of biblical proportions”. — BBC

* Heavy rains set off flash floods, killing 182 in Afghanistan. At least 182 people have been killed and hundreds more injured during a month of heavy flooding from seasonal rains in Afghanistan, according to the United Nations and the ruling Taliban. — AP

* A tropical storm blew out of the northern Philippines on Wednesday, leaving at least three people injured and thousands displaced and prompting authorities to shut down schools and government offices in the capital and several provinces prone to flooding and landslides. — AP

* Torrential rainfall hit Paris on Tuesday evening after a recent heatwave across France, flooding metro stations in the French capital. — France 24

* The death toll from flash floods in Sudan since the start of the country’s rainy season in May has climbed to at least 89, an official said Tuesday, as the downpours continued to inundate villages across the east African nation. — AP

* Mass floods and heatwaves hit Asia: the role of global warming in extreme weather events. In recent weeks, India and Bangladesh have experienced floods that have killed close to 200 people and displaced 7 million. Beyond these numbers, these events pose serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, whether in rural areas or urban settings. — France 24

* Days of deadly floods and landslides wreak havoc in Iran. Dozens are dead and at least 45 people missing after most Iranian provinces were affected by the inundations (of rain and mudslides.) — Al Jazeera

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bookmark_borderFlorida Insurance Regulators Taking an “unprecedented” and “extraordinary” Step

The St. Lucie News Tribune reports:

Florida insurance regulators are taking an “unprecedented” and “extraordinary” step to try and prevent tens of thousands of homeowners from being forced to look for new property insurance coverage if rating agency Demotech follows through on plans to downgrade many Florida carriers.

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation announced a plan Wednesday to provide companies that are downgraded with reinsurance coverage through state-run Citizens Property Insurance.

The dramatic decision to assume financial responsibility for a raft of struggling insurers underscores the dire circumstances Florida is facing as a large portion of its homeowners insurance market teeters on the brink of collapse.

Downgrading so many companies could wreak havoc in the state, causing big problems for homeowners and the real estate industry.

Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require borrowers to have a home insurance policy from a highly-rated company. Florida’s home insurance market is dominated by smaller companies that only get ratings from Demotech, giving the company significant sway in the industry.

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each offer an exception to the financial rating requirements for an insurer that is covered by a reinsurer who assumes, by endorsement, 100 percent of the insurer’s liability for any covered loss payable, but unpaid by the insurer, by reason of insolvency,” the release states.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday that it makes sense to use Citizens as a financial backstop for insurers, because if the companies are downgraded many of their policies would ultimately flow into Citizens – the state’s insurer of last resort.

“If the companies get downgraded and they have to shed policies those will end up going on Citizens anyway, so the exposure to Citizens is more to take on the policies than it will be to act as a reinsurer of last resort,” DeSantis said during a press conference in Tampa.

Reinsurance is insurance for insurance companies. By providing such coverage, Citizens would be on the hook to pay the claims if the downgraded insurers aren’t able to meet their financial obligations. Spiking reinsurance costs have contributed to the home insurance industry’s problems in Florida, which is heavily reliant on such coverage.

The additional reinsurance coverage comes on top of a $2 billion rescue fund approved by state lawmakers during a special session earlier this year. That fund provides reinsurance at no cost to Florida insurers. It was part of a package of reforms intended to stabilize the insurance industry.

Demotech had planned to release its ratings revisions on Tuesday, but said in a statement provided to USA TODAY Network – Florida that it is taking more time to update the ratings.

“As the current regulatory climate has become hostile and negative and we have and will expend a significant effort creating responses to third party letters, we will be taking additional time to review information and consider the issues affecting the companies operating in Florida,” the statement reads.

More articles on Flood Insurance, Rising Sea Levels and Global Warming.

bookmark_borderCost of Property Insurance in Florida

Florida Politics reports in their article, As climate in Florida sets ‘new normal,’ cost of property insurance will separate haves, have-nots:

“Insurers believe that due to climate change, this is the new normal. They’re finding that catastrophic and non-catastrophic weather events are increasing in severity every year,” said Paul Handerhan, president of the Federal Association for Insurance Reform, a national nonprofit advocacy organization based in Fort Lauderdale.

The consequences of climate change not only include catastrophic — and increasingly expensive — weather such as hurricanes and wildfires, but also more everyday events such as storms that pelt residential and commercial properties with straight-line wind and hail.

The actuarially sound way to respond to the new normal is to raise rates, reduce coverage, or throw in the towel, as eight property insurance companies in Florida have done since 2018. Just this week, three others asked state insurance regulators to approve hefty rate increases — as high as 49 percent on policyholders not among the tens of thousands who recently lost coverage altogether due to non-renewals.

Over time, Handerhan said, property insurance coverage will become so expensive that only the wealthiest of the wealthy can “afford to live in paradise.”

“This market is completely,100% out of control,” said Barry Gilway, president, CEO, and executive director of Citizens, during the board of governors meeting. “It all has to do with the total collapse of the overall Florida marketplace, and that collapse continues.”

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bookmark_borderFrequency of Flash Floods

As the climate warms, the air holds more moisture. Theoretically, there is a 7% increase in atmospheric water holding capacity per degree Celsius warming. A recent study published in Nature The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario suggests extreme precipitation might be increasing even more due to changes in storm structure, storm dynamics, and large-scale weather patterns resulting in even more severe flash flooding that previously projected.

“Flash floods are largely driven by high rainfall rates in convective storms that are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warmer climate in the future. US floods are becoming 7.9% flashier by the end of the century assuming a high-emissions scenario. The Southwest (+10.5%) has the greatest increase in flashiness among historical flash flood hot spots, and the central US (+8.6%) is emerging as a new flash flood hot spot. Additionally, future flash flood-prone frontiers are advancing northwards.”

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bookmark_borderHomeowners Insurance and Extreme Weather Events

Homeonwers insurance is becoming more expensive or even unavailable due to the increase frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by climate change.

NOLA newspapers reports:
Louisiana’s homeowners insurance market straining under weight of 600,000 claims
Two active Atlantic hurricane seasons in a row have made some insurers insolvent.

It’s the latest sign of a deepening crisis taking shape once again in Louisiana, where the legacy of Hurricane Katrina and other storms still looms large. As big national insurers pulled out of coastal areas in the southeast, homeowners increasingly relied on less-regulated regional insurance providers to make them whole in case of catastrophe. Now, even some of those companies — once willing to make a risky bet — are leaving.

In Calcasieu Parish, nearly three out of every four occupied homes filed an insurance claim after Hurricane Laura, according to a Times-Picayune analysis of state and census data. One in four filed claims again less than two months later after Delta made landfall about 10 miles west of where Laura came ashore.

Failures not ‘anomalies’
The flurry of storms was too much for some insurance companies to bear. The Department of Insurance has already seized control of three firms because they could not afford to pay claims.

“I wish I could say I thought they were anomalies, but I don’t,” said Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon. He said a fourth insurer that’s in dire financial straits will likely be placed under the care of the Louisiana Insurance Guaranty Association.

“I would say our property insurance market is in crisis,” said Jeff Albright, CEO of the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of Louisiana. “The sad part of it is we’re reliant on these small, thinly capitalized companies instead of having large national carriers that have lots of assets and can weather the big storms.”

Donelon said five companies have withdrawn entirely from the state and another five or six have stopped writing policies. As a result, Donelon said he expects the number of policies under Louisiana Citizens to double this year as the state launches headlong into another hurricane season.

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bookmark_borderA Foot of Sea Level Rise

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports U.S. coastline to see up to a foot of sea level rise by 2050. That is three times the rate of the previous one hundred years.

“For businesses along the coast, knowing what to expect and how to plan for the future is critical,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “These updated projections will help businesses, and the communities they support, understand risks and make smart investments in the years ahead.”

“This new data on sea rise is the latest reconfirmation that our climate crisis ⁠— as the President has said ⁠— is blinking ‘code red,’” said Gina McCarthy, National Climate Advisor. “We must redouble our efforts to cut the greenhouse gases that cause climate change while, at the same time, help our coastal communities become more resilient in the face of rising seas.”

“By 2050, moderate flooding ⁠— which is typically disruptive and damaging by today’s weather, sea level and infrastructure standards ⁠— is expected to occur more than 10 times as often as it does today,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, NOAA National Ocean Service Director. “These numbers mean a change from a single event every 2-5 years to multiple events each year, in some places.”

The Sea Level Rise Technical Report provides the most up-to-date sea level rise projections for all U.S. states and territories by decade for the next 100 years and beyond, based on a combination of tide gauge and satellite observations and all the model ensembles from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report projects sea levels along the coastline will rise an additional 10-12 inches by 2050 with specific amounts varying regionally, mainly due to land height changes.

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