The UN’s United in Science 2022 release their report A multi-organization high-level compilation of the most recent science related to climate change, impacts and responses.
In order to avoid catastrophic climate change, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030. Currently, greenhouse gas emissions will INCREASE by 13% by 2030.
“According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.”
Countries’ climate promises still not enough to avoid catastrophic global warming
The current combined National Determined Contributions (NDCs)—meaning the countries’ national efforts to tackle emissions and mitigate climate change—are leading our planet to at least 2.5 degrees warming, a level deemed catastrophic by scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
According to the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue to rise,
despite emissions reductions in 2020 resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The Global Carbon Project also
notes that, in 2021, global fossil CO2 emissions returned to 2019 pre-pandemic levels after a large, but temporary, absolute
drop in emissions due to widespread lockdowns. These conditions are leading to increasing global surface temperature and
other climatic changes, as highlighted by the WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report, which found the most recent
seven years, 2015 to 2021, to be the warmest on record.
Looking forward, the Met Office (UK), in partnership with the World Climate Research Programme, found that there is a 48%
chance that, during at least one year in the next five years, annual mean temperature will temporarily be 1.5 °C higher than
in 1850-1900. Additionally, there is a 93% chance that at least one year in the same time period will be the hottest on record.
The UN Environment Programme’s latest Emissions Gap Report found that the full implementation of mitigation pledges
made by countries (as of 4 November 2021) is insufficient and will not keep global warming below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels. The report also found that the ambition of these pledges would need to be four times higher to keep global temperature
rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and seven times higher to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Enhanced mitigation action
is needed to prevent the goals of the Paris Agreement from slipping out of reach.
Without ambitious action, the physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change will be devastating. Irreversible
physical changes in the climate system, known as tipping points, can not be ruleld out and could have significant global
and regional consequences. According to the Urban Climate Change Research Network, cities – responsible for up to 70%
of human-caused emissions – will face increasing climate impacts that will intersect with socioeconomic inequalities.
Additionally, the WMO World Weather Research Programme highlights that it is the world’s most vulnerable populations
that will suffer the most, as has already been observed during recent extreme weather events.
Billions of people around the world are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As a result, adaptation and
disaster risk reduction are crucial to lower the risks to climate impacts. According to WMO and the UN Office for Disaster
Risk Reduction, early warning systems not only save lives and reduce losses and damages, but also contribute to disaster
risk reduction, and support climate change adaptation. However, less than half of all countries in the world have these
crucial systems and coverage is particuarly low in vulnerable countries. To address this issue, the United Nations Secretary-
General António Guterres called for new action to ensure every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems in
the next five years.
Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released highly anticipated Working Group reports
covering The Physical Science Basis; Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; and Mitigation of Climate Change, which are an
integral part of its Sixth Assessment Report. These important reports identify the strength of scientific agreement in these
different areas as well as where further research is needed.
The science is clear – urgent action is needed to mitigate emissions and adapt to our changing climate. The United Nations
system, along with its partners, will continue to provide world-leading science to inform decision-making and support
global climate action.