by Daniel Brouse
February 4, 2021
There have been discussions about how the COVID-19 mortality rate is declining.
I said:
The mortality rate is probably not declining. In fact, the new variants are likely increasing the mortality rate. The graphs that appear to show the mortality rate declining have more to do with how we are calculating the mortality rate. Compared to how we calculate the flu, the COVID mortality rate is actually around 10-15%. The published numbers are lower because we started including asymptomatic screenings instead of only symptomatic diagnostics.
You asked:
Are you saying the world CHANGED the way it calculates the mortality rate en masse and in a coordinated fashion? Or, are you saying it was and still is calculated wrong?
I replied:
It was not coordinated. It was/is because of the way COVID behaves, so we should not be talking about the mortality rate without making it clear. Traditionally, “a case” is a person showing up at their medical facility (doctor’s office or emergency room) WITH symptoms. “A case” is a doctor’s sick patient case. It has the doctor’s case number, etc. Flu screening tests are not counted in the flu’s mortality rate because they don’t screen for the flu. The more COVID testing of asymptomatic people, the lower the mortality rate will appear to be. It’s not that one way is right / wrong. It is that they are not the same formula.
You asked:
I guess what you’re saying is the flu does not report asymptomatic cases and therefore skews the comparison?
I replied:
Yes. Plus, since last March, screening tests have sky rocketed, so the appearance on the graphs is that the mortality rate is declining. It is not. In fact, the new variants appear to be more deadly. I agree we should identify all asymptomatic cases. I do not agree we should conclude the mortality rate is declining. It is not.
They are testing (screening) more and more people. The more people they test that are not symptomatic, the more it skews the mortality rate. Right now, it is believed the mortality rate is going up. UK, South Africa, Brazil, and California variants are causing more deaths.
You say:
The asymptomatic are just immune, so that certainly REDUCES the true mortality of the disease.
I replied:
No. Asymptomatic are not immune. And, the more asymptomatic people that are tested positive, the more the mortality rate will appear to fall — a false impression. If you want to look at the true mortality rate, it is about 10% in PA (and holding steady.) However, it is more important than ever to test for asymptomatic cases, because 1) asymptomatic cases are spreading the virus 2) asymptomatic cases often result in death or permanent disabilities as a result of COVID side-effects. For instance, many younger people develop multiple inflammatory syndrome, myocardial inflammation, or other deadly conditions.
You asked:
So how is it that asymptomatic cases are not immune?
I replied:
COVID is unlike any other virus we have ever seen… asymptomatic people appear to be just as contagious as symptomatic people. They also appear to develop heart, lung, and brain damage.
Another adds:
I don’t think we have Clarity regarding immunity from having had the disease. There are various studies about the amount of time the antibodies last as well as the variation in the number of antibodies that a person who suffered covid-19 has. Thinking that having the disease creates immunity to the disease is simply basing it on our previous experience of other viruses.
I added:
The original strain of COVID gave immunity on average: antibodies for 90 days and memory T-cells for 5 months. There does not appear to be any immunity to the new variants. And, the longer the virus remains out-of-control ANYWHERE in the world, the more variants will develop.
The worldwide mortality rate went from about 14% (last spring) down to 10% (last summer) and is now on the rise. The decline was likely do to “stay at home”, masking, and other mitigation efforts that helped slow the spread. The more the spread, the more the variants.
To put it another way: Last spring we needed immunity in about 60-75% of the population to reach herd immunity. Now, we need 90% of the world to have immunity to develop herd immunity. (And we have 30% of health care professionals refusing to get vaccinated. in the USA)
Asymptomatic cases should be identified, isolated, and all contacts traced. There currently is no good way to report a mortality rate. Let’s just say it’s way worse than anything we’ve ever seen…. and appears to be getting worse.
You asked:
My understanding regarding the r rate for measles is that it is 15. I thought that the r rate for the original strain of covid-19 is 2.4 and I read that the UK variant has a rate of 2.9. Why are you defining this is the worst we’ve ever seen?
I replied:
With all other viri (including the measles and the flu), the virus is obvious. If you get symptomatic, you are too sick to walk about. Also, knowing you have it, you probably feel it is your moral obligation not to spread it. However, with COVID, many people do not know they are shedding the virus. The result is it’s the worst ever seen. This can be observed in the real world. More drastic measures have been taken to control this virus than any other in history…. yet, more chronically ill victims have resulted. Another way to demonstrate it is: given the drastic change to our lifestyle and economics, this virus has caused more damage than any other… ever. It looks like COVID will have cost the USA 8 trillion dollars for the year. The cost of the flu for the year was $11.2 billion. I think the measles was about $10 million. No other illness, nor war, nor act of god has cost us as much as COVID.
You asked:
Do you have any other articles (perhaps the updated version of the one you attached above) that I might use?
I responded:
I don’t think I’ve written anything else about the problems with COVID mortality statistics. The mortality rate is the lessor of my concerns. My larger concern are people thinking surviving COVID means you recovered from COVID. Or inversely, comparing mortality to “recovered”. Though we don’t know the long term impact until the long term is over, it looks like many millions of Americans (and probably 80 million worldwide) will now have a preexisting condition (such as, Long Haulers Syndrome)… and the pandemic is far from over. Most of my articles o COVID are indexed here: http://membrane.com/COVID-19.html.
And another voice:
And one more thing. Thank you for pointing out that the people “recover“ from COVID-19 there is still so much morbidity out there post infection. We have people that are requiring pacemakers because of myocardial effects, as well as, extensive pulmonary damage due to this virus. I have several friends and colleagues who have had difficulty with their lungs post infection. What we don’t know is the long-term effects that will occur. I myself have no post infection sequelae, but I still don’t know how this could affect my body in the years to come.
I lament:
That is my fear. 1 year out, and I’m still treating my long haulers. My fear is… I could be killing myself over time.