bookmark_borderThe Economic Costs of COVID Re-openings

The mortality rate for COIVD is between 7-8% in PA. (* The actual mortality rate is closer to 14%) It has been since the pandemic started, and still is. An estimated additional 15% of the recovered have permanent disabilities. What is the cost of life and health on the economy? The benefit-cost analysis of a human life is generally accepted as US$10 million/dead person. [It is also referred to as the cost of life, value of preventing a fatality (VPF) and implied cost of averting a fatality (ICAF).]

But, what is the cost of lifelong disability? (COD/cost of a disability) That cost is much more difficult to calculate. How much does it cost to keep me alive? How much pain and suffering must I endure? And, how widely does the cost vary from disability to disability? If I need O2 the rest of my life… or if my leg is amputated… or neurological damage, etc.?

So, if the economy benefits by X amount by reopening early… what is the offsetting cost (X-VPF-COD)?
It seems to me this is a no-brainer. Without a doubt, it will be a negative number: X < VPF+COD Answer: Stop the spread. Stop the dead. Make the bread.

COVID-19 Index

bookmark_borderLockdowns and Shutdowns Prevented Over 530 Million Infections

Nature Accelerated Article Preview
The effect of large-scale anti-contagion-policies on the COVID-19 pandemic

Governments around the world are responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic1 with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many actions, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society, but their benefits cannot be directly observed and are currently understood only through process-based simulations2–4. Here, we compile new data on 1,717 local, regional, and national non-pharmaceutical interventions deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, and the United States (US). We then apply reduced-form econometric methods, commonly used to measure the effect of policies on economic growth5,6, to empirically evaluate the effect that these anti-contagion policies have had on the growth rate of infections. In the absence of policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 38% per day. We find that anti-contagion policies have significantly and substantially slowed this growth. Some policies have different impacts on different populations, but we obtain consistent evidence that the policy packages now deployed are achieving large, beneficial, and measurable health outcomes. We estimate that across these six countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting roughly 530 million total infections. These findings may help inform whether or when these policies should be deployed, intensified, or lifted, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported7.

bookmark_borderCOVID-19 and Air Pollution

COVID-19
by Daniel Brouse
March 25, 2020
Email: help@membrane.com

Abstract: Many compromised respiratory and immune systems are a result of air pollution. COVID-19 is having a larger impact on the population due to underlying compromised respiratory and immune systems caused by air pollution.

Hypothesis:
Large portions of the world are susceptible to particulate and ozone pollution. In this study, the focus is on particulate pollution. Though tropospheric ozone pollution is thought to be more detrimental to the respiratory and immune systems, current technology makes it too difficult to measure. Tropospheric ozone and particulate pollution are common in urban and industrial areas. Ozone is created when the ultraviolet light, temperature, and chemicals in the air create a chemical reaction. The result is millions of micro-explosions in the lungs. Hot summer days are optimal for ozone creation. Particulate pollution is a result of fine particles suspended in the atmosphere. Particulate pollution is easier to be aware of because you can see it as haze or smog in the air. Exposure to ozone and particulate pollution results in permanent lung damage and chronic immune system disorders. Exercising in the out-of-doors during days with high pollution amplifies the damage to the respiratory and immune systems. The larger the pollution intake, the more severe the damage.

Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality
The Harvard study Fine particulate matter and COVID-19 mortality in the United States found, “A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.” [1]

A study from Oxford found, “Our results suggest that air pollution is an important cofactor increasing the risk of mortality from COVID-19. This provides extra motivation for combining ambitious policies to reduce air pollution with measures to control the transmission of COVID-19.” [2]

“The study estimated that about 15% of deaths worldwide from COVID-19 could be attributed to long-term exposure to air pollution. In Europe the proportion was about 19%, in North America it was 17%, and in East Asia about 27%,” reports the European Society of Cardiology. [3]

Pollen and Increased Risk of Infection
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America published the study Higher airborne pollen concentrations correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, as evidenced from 31 countries across the globe.

The research showed that airborne pollen on average accounts for 44% of the variation in infection rates in addition to humidity and air temperature. Pollen exposure weakens the immunity by diminishing the antiviral interferon response.

Update: August 2021
Excess of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to fine particulate matter exposure during the 2020 wildfires in the United States

“The presence of wildfire smoke last year during the pandemic may have been responsible for at least 19,000 additional cases of COVID-19 on the West Coast, and 700 subsequent deaths.”

“The year 2020 brought unimaginable challenges in public health, with the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic and wildfires across the western United States. Wildfires produce high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Recent studies reported that short-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We acquired and linked publicly available daily data on PM2.5, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and other confounders for 92 western U.S. counties that were affected by the 2020 wildfires. We estimated the association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 during the wildfires and the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We adjusted for several time-varying confounding factors (e.g., weather, seasonality, long-term trends, mobility, and population size). We found strong evidence that wildfires amplified the effect of short-term exposure to PM2.5 on COVID-19 cases and deaths, although with substantial heterogeneity across counties.”

Negative Feedback Loops
Long term exposure to air pollution causes COVID co-morbidities including respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and a compromised immune system. Contracting COVID exacerbates the preexisting co-morbidities. Post-COVID exposure to air pollution further compromises the co-morbidities. The negative feedback loop repeats until failure.

Increased Risks Due to Reinfection
The study Acute and postacute sequelae associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was published in the Journal Nature.

* The evidence shows that reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and damage to multiple organ systems
* COVID exacerbates underlying conditions including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders

First infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is associated with increased risk of acute and postacute death and sequelae in various organ systems. Compared to no reinfection, reinfection contributed additional risks of death, hospitalization, and sequelae including pulmonary, cardiovascular, hematological, diabetes, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders. The risks were evident regardless of vaccination status. The risks were most pronounced in the acute phase but persisted in the postacute phase at 6 months. Compared to noninfected controls, cumulative risks and burdens of repeat infection increased according to the number of infections. Limitations included a cohort of mostly white males. The evidence shows that reinfection further increases risks of death, hospitalization and sequelae in multiple organ systems in the acute and postacute phase. Reducing overall burden of death and disease due to SARS-CoV-2 will require strategies for reinfection prevention.

Minimize Your Risk
1) Minimize your exposure to air pollution by checking the air quality conditions in your location. (Get air quality data where you live.)
2) People at high risk of COVID mortality due to co-morbidities, such as, aged, obese and type2 diabetics, combined with long term exposure to air pollution should take preventative measures. A deficiency of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) may be the primary factor related to the SARS-Cov-2 disease spectrum and the risk for mortality, as subclinical nutritional deficiencies may be unmasked by any significant increase in oxidative stress. [4]

The Miller/Wentzel/Richards prophylactic protocol of Niacin B3, Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Quercetin, Zinc, and Selenium can minimize the severity and duration of COVID symptoms and may prevent death.

1. Fine particulate matter and COVID-19 mortality in the United States Harford
2. Regional and global contributions of air pollution to risk of death from COVID-19 Oxford
3. Study estimates exposure to air pollution increases COVID-19 deaths by 15% worldwide European Society of Cardiology
4. COVID-19: NAD+ deficiency may predispose the aged, obese and type2 diabetics to mortality through its effect on SIRT1 activity Miller, Wentzel, Richards

Additional References:
Pollen and Increased SARS-CoV-2 Infection Rates
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/…/pm_and_covid_mortality.pdf
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid-pm/files/pm_and_covid_mortality_supp.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054502v1

CLIMATE RELATED UPDATES

Climate-Driven Health Collapse: The Compounding Feedback Loops of Disease, Pollution, and Extreme Weather Brouse (2025)

COVID-19 Index