by Daniel Brouse
January 31, 2025
In the most recent quarter, the U.S. GDP experienced a decline, coinciding with historically low levels of immigration over the past few quarters. This is not a coincidence—there is a well-documented and direct relationship between economic growth and immigration. In modern times, immigration has accounted for approximately 80% of GDP growth, as new workers, consumers, and entrepreneurs contribute to economic expansion, productivity, and innovation.
With the current restrictive immigration policies, the U.S. economy faces a significant risk of contraction. A shrinking labor force leads to slower business growth, increased labor shortages, and reduced consumer demand—all of which hinder GDP expansion. Additionally, declining immigration reduces the number of younger workers paying into Social Security and Medicare, exacerbating long-term fiscal challenges.
If current trends continue, the economy is expected to suffer severe negative consequences, including slower growth, rising inflationary pressures due to labor shortages, and weakened global competitiveness. Addressing immigration policy is not just a social or political issue—it is an economic imperative.
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