by Daniel Brouse
April 10, 2025
On April 9, economists were left scratching their heads, wondering why anyone believed that the announcement of a “PAUSE” on tariffs would have any meaningful impact on the economy. It was a classic case of wishful thinking, with little grounding in the hard numbers that define economic reality. By April 10, as the smoke cleared, it became increasingly clear that the “pause” was more of a symbolic gesture than a substantive shift in trade policy.
A closer look at the numbers reveals the magnitude of the tariff situation. When we break it down, the initial tariff rate on imports stood at around 3%. However, the story changes dramatically on what is known as “Liberation Day,” when the effective tariff rate spiked to a staggering 40%. This isn’t a typo — it was a significant jump, and it marked a crucial point in the broader context of global trade.
On April 9, the effective tariff rate without factoring in China, the United States’ largest trading partner, shifted to 18%. This rate was still the highest we’ve seen since the 1940s. While this sounds like a notable shift, it doesn’t fully capture the broader impact. When we include China in the equation, the story takes an even more dramatic turn. The total effective tariff rate, including both the general tariffs and consumption taxes on Chinese imports, skyrocketed to a range of 30-35%. This figure is nothing short of unprecedented, making it the highest effective tariff rate in U.S. history.
The implications of these numbers are far-reaching. For one, a tariff rate that high can have serious consequences for both consumers and businesses, leading to higher costs for imported goods and potentially stifling economic growth. A “pause” on tariffs might sound like a step toward easing trade tensions, but in reality, it does little to reverse the long-term economic pressures already set in motion.
So, while the announcement of a tariff “pause” may have been met with some optimism, the underlying reality is that U.S. tariffs are at historically high levels, and the true impact of these policies is just beginning to unfold. For economists and policymakers alike, it’s crucial to move beyond superficial gestures and focus on the hard economic data that tells the real story of America’s trade situation.
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- Trade War!
On April 2, President Trump unilaterally declared a trade war against the rest of the world, imposing protectionist tariffs on 180 countries — calling it “Liberation Day.” This action was taken without congressional approval and in direct violation of the Constitution. - Tariff Turmoil: The Chaos and Confusion Surrounding U.S. Trade Policies