Dollar Outflows, Fed Policy, and Foreign Mortgage Holdings Amid Economic Strain

By admin | Published: 2025/04/13

by Daniel Brouse
April 13, 2025

Over the past three months, global capital flows, Federal Reserve policy, and the health of U.S. mortgage-backed securities have each come under renewed pressure as economic uncertainty deepens. The confluence of a weakening dollar, rising international disinvestment, and domestic credit strains is redefining the outlook for U.S. financial stability. This article examines three interrelated developments shaping the current landscape: the movement of cash out of dollar-denominated assets, the Federal Reserve’s role in currency and credit stabilization, and the evolving status of U.S. mortgage debt in foreign portfolios.

I. Capital Flight from the Dollar: A Three-Month Trend

In recent months, capital has been steadily flowing out of U.S. dollar-denominated assets into foreign currencies and non-dollar investment vehicles. This shift has accelerated due to waning investor confidence in U.S. fiscal discipline and monetary policy, compounded by a volatile geopolitical environment.

As of early April 2025:

  • The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 100 for the first time since July 2023, down 2.7% in just one week and 7.6% year-to-date.

  • In January 2025, net capital outflows from the U.S. reached $48.8 billion, reversing inflows seen in late 2024.

  • The euro and Canadian dollar gained notable strength, with repatriation flows and currency hedging strategies pushing the loonie to a four-month high.

Simultaneously, central banks have continued diversifying their reserves:

  • The U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 57.4%, its lowest level since 1994, with increased holdings in euros, yuan, and gold.

These movements reflect broader skepticism toward U.S. fiscal direction and a growing appetite for global alternatives that offer more stable returns or diversified geopolitical exposure.

II. The Federal Reserve’s Response: Balance Sheet Maneuvers and Liquidity Safeguards

In an effort to manage the dollar’s decline and stabilize financial conditions, the Federal Reserve has taken several notable steps. Although it has not directly intervened in foreign exchange markets, its recent balance sheet and interest rate decisions indicate a shift toward cautious support for dollar stability.

In March 2025, the Fed announced it would:

  • Reduce the pace of its balance sheet runoff, decreasing the monthly cap on Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to just $5 billion starting in April.

  • Maintain the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion, with excess payments being reinvested in Treasurys.

  • Hold interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, while continuing to offer overnight repurchase operations to preserve liquidity with a $500 billion ceiling.

These measures aim to preserve Treasury market liquidity while ensuring the financial system remains well-functioning amid deteriorating external confidence. However, the Fed’s efforts are complicated by inflationary pressures tied to trade policies and ongoing credit tightening.

III. Foreign Holdings of U.S. Mortgage Debt and the Strain on the Secondary Market

Another fault line is emerging in the mortgage finance sector, where both international and domestic stressors are reshaping the market.

As of mid-2024:

  • Foreign investors held roughly $1.635 trillion in U.S. asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

  • This represents 12.6% of the $12.982 trillion in long-term U.S. debt securities held abroad.

  • Major foreign holders of U.S. MBS include Japan ($253 billion), Canada ($190 billion), and the Cayman Islands ($107 billion).

Recent months have seen rising unease in the secondary mortgage market. The credit tightening cycle, paired with new tariffs and trade-related uncertainty, has made private credit assets—including MBS—less liquid and more volatile:

  • Investors are increasingly selling private credit and MBS in the secondary market at 5–10% discounts below par to raise cash.

  • Mortgage delinquencies among FHA borrowers have surged to 11%, underscoring the financial vulnerability of lower-income households.

These developments suggest that foreign investors are not only rebalancing away from U.S. government debt but also reassessing their exposure to U.S. housing-linked assets, which are increasingly seen as high-risk due to domestic economic fragility and policy unpredictability.

Conclusion: A System Under Strain

Taken together, the weakening of the dollar, strategic shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and erosion of investor confidence in U.S. mortgage debt paint a picture of an economic system under significant strain. As trade and credit tensions continue to weigh on global sentiment, the U.S. financial system faces growing pressure from both external capital flight and internal market stress. In this environment, maintaining liquidity, credibility, and policy coherence will be essential for preventing further destabilization of core financial markets.

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